Odd Lots

Last August, President Trump made the unprecedented choice of moving to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The administration claimed she was being terminated with cause, citing an ongoing investigation in alleged mortgage fraud committed by Cook. The legal battle between Cook and the administration has been tangled in the courts for the last year, eventually reaching the Supreme Court. This June, in a 5-4 decision, the court ruled in favor of Cook. However at the same time, in a different case, the court allowed the President to fire individual members of the FTC, undermining its role as quasi-independent body not beholden to the executive branch. So what are the implications here? How can the court change the status of a body like the FTC while allowing the Fed to continue operating as is? And for how long will the Fed maintain some amount of operational autonomy? On this episode we speak with Columbia Law School's Lev Menand who just wrote a piece on these two cases for Just Security called The Federal Reserve Exception to the Slaughter Rule as well as Nathan Tankus (writer and president of Notes on the Crises). The two of them lay out the consequences of these two decisions and they dig into the generations-long legal history, starting with Alexander Hamilton, that explains how we got here.Read more: Can Trump Still Fire Lisa Cook After Her Supreme Court Win? Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox now delivered every weekday plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

American sports fans have long been comfortable talking in the language of stats and analytics. Soccer embraced the 'moneyball' revolution later; the sport was once perceived as too complex to model analytically — there were too many players on the pitch, the game's progression was too random and chaotic to reliably predict. That's no longer the case, and soccer watchers are well aware of stats like xG (Expected Goals) and each match is an opportunity for a team to mine data, whether its tracking data, on-ball data, or even analyzing body poses and movement. Today, we speak with two soccer analytics veterans, Mike Treacy (head of risk at Apex Fintech Solutions) and Joris Bekkers (a soccer analytics consultant). Treacy's background includes a stint in analytics for a Premier League team and he's currently advising the MLS team Austin FC while Bekkers has built software that analyzes raw soccer data and he's worked with the US Soccer Federation. We talk to them about how VAR has affected the sport, how data analytics can capture ineffable things like hustle, how European leagues and the MLS differ in their analytics strategy, and why chess and soccer are not so dissimilar. Read more: The Lawyer Taking On StubHub Over World Cup Ticket Sales Polymarket Partners With Crypto Firm During World Cup Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On July 14, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced a one-year moratorium on new large data center projects in the state. It's the nation's first such pause at a time when anti-data center politics is on the rise around the country. But Hochul insists that she's not anti-AI, and that she's an avid user of the technology, as well as a believer that it can be a force for economic growth. On this episode, we talk to Hochul about the logic of the pause, and what she hopes it will achieve. We also discuss energy and housing stress in the state, and what it would take for New York to welcome in driverless cars.Read more: Meta’s Louisiana Data Center to Surpass $250 Billion Price TagOnly Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It seems obvious that among the many industries that AI might disrupt, the legal profession might face some of the most adverse outcomes. When clerical, research-based tasks like searching through databases and reading contracts are automated, what is left for lawyers to do and how might they justify all those billable hours? In this episode we speak with Gary Wingens, chair and partner at the law firm Lowenstein Sandler. He talks about how his firm is using AI and why he thinks the technology could end up increasing legal work for lawyers as costs come down, creating a sort of “Jevon's paradox” for lawsuits, deals and litigation. We also talk about the billable hours model and training junior talent.Read more: AI Legal Startup Norm Valued at $1.2 Billion Funding RoundOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Retail participation in the stock market is booming. And of course the biggest story in markets is the AI trade, which has created an incredible amount of demand for chips and memory. These two broad themes have come together in the form of leveraged, single-stock ETFs. And while these products are popular in the US, the scale coming out of Korea is enormous. It's a good week to talk about this intersection, because some of the biggest stories of the week include Samsung's earnings and SK Hynix's new US listing. Barclays's Global Head of Equities Tactical Strategies Alexander Altmann has used the word “terrifying” to describe the amount of notional exposure coming from these levered ETFs. He explains to us why that is and we talk to him about why, in such a short period of time, the world of levered ETFs has gotten to be so large, with AUM increasing threefold in Asia alone. He also us gets into how he is thinking through risk management and how we as society — and retail investors in particular — got to be overexposed on equities and why that keeps him up at night. Read: SK Hynix’s $26.5 Billion Listing Reopens Asia Route to US MarketOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up: bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We've gone through a number of a technological revolutions in investing, whether it was the dawn of the high frequency trading era or the introduction of robotraders. When it comes to AI, the big question that remains in the investment context is whether or not the technology will be implemented like those past tech innovations — meaning it will be integrated into the flow of the business without upending everything as we know it — or if AI will transform the very nature of investing. Right now, AI's use in investing is a mixed bag: People are excited about its potential, but several firms are still trying to figure out its value. Today, we speak with Man Group's CTO Gary Collier and Head of Data and AI Tushara Fernando about how one of the largest publicly-traded hedge funds in the world is actually implementing AI into its work. We speak with them about empowering their quants with AI tools, the challenge of integrating AI safely, and the creative ways their staff is thinking about token spending, which is up 86-fold this year. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up here: bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Here's a couple things about prediction markets. A lot of it is pure gambling and speculation, much of it on things with very little economic relevance. Another fact is that in all likelihood, if you yourself started trading right now, you'd probably lose your shirt. But there is money being made by some dedicated traders, really focused on areas like politics and economics. On this episode, we speak with Brian Golden and Daniel Reichman, who are part of a private Discord called Maga Kiwi Club, where serious prediction markets traders swap ideas and make real money. We discuss the remarkable efforts they go to in order to spot opportunities, the systematic biases among traders, how they feel about insider trading, and other major issues that surround the space. Alongside Brian and Daniel, we also speak with NYC-based journalist and producer Adam Iscoe, who recently profiled these traders for The New York Times Magazine. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In June, grocery giant Aldi opened a store just off of Times Square in Manhattan. It's the company's first location in Midtown and, according to their US Chief Commercial Officer Scott Patton, Aldi has to orchestrate a "logistical symphony" to get groceries into the middle of one of the busiest places in America. For instance, they use shorter trucks to navigate the tight corners of New York City streets. On this episode, we speak with Patton about what it took to open this specific Aldi and why they chose a busy tourist location like Times Square. He also explains how the company — famous for its low prices — is able to sell even wagyu ground beef at a consumer-friendly price point, how the mostly private-label grocer thinks through which name brands to incorporate into their stock, Aldi's cult-favorite "Aisle of Shame," a short history of barcode innovation, and how GLP-1s are changing consumer habits. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's this weird contradiction that hovers almost all conversations regarding the Chinese economy. On the one hand, the growth and rising material prosperity is undeniable. And of course, Chinese industrial giants are at the frontier in all kinds of things, like batteries. On the other hand, you always hear about a soft domestic market, and a general state of unease among workers who fear that precarity is around the corner. So how is this contradiction explained? And how does it affect day-to-day life? On this episode, we bring back one of our regular guests Dan Wang, who recently returned from a long trip to Shanghai. We discuss his observations, the general ennui he saw, the signs of domestic weakness, and the way in which phone culture is reshaping Chinese society.Read more: It’s Too Soon to Breathe Easy on China’s EconomyOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the China tech space, Baidu is now a full-stack player in the AI industry. The company makes its own chips, has its own AI models (Ernie), its own cloud system, and it's integrating AI into its self-driving car business, Apollo Go. But before all this, Baidu was known for being China's leader in search. Things, obviously, have changed a lot since the company was founded in the late 1990s. In today's episode, we speak with Baidu CFO Henry He about the company's AI ambitions. He talks to us about maximizing token spend, how Chinese tech firms are thinking about safety and alignment, the global robotaxi competition, and how the core search business fits into the company now. Read more: Chinese AI Stocks Rally on Demand Optimism and Policy Support US Seeks AI Partnership With EU on Regulation, Supply Chains Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We know that companies around the world are investing heavily in AI. So intense is the race to win the AI battle, that it feels like there's almost no upward limit on how much you could spend on it. So how are CFOs thinking about capex in the AI age? In this episode we speak with Winston Cheng, CFO of Chinese-founded multinational tech firm Lenovo. Lenovo is known for its personal computers, especially its Thinkpad line of laptops, but they are making a push to move beyond its role as one of the leaders in personal computing, integrating AI agents into their devices and investing in building out an “AI Cloud” infrastructure alongside Nvidia. We talk to Cheng about how Lenovo's allocating capital during one of the biggest capex booms in history. We also discuss involution and market competition in China, and how Lenovo's been adapting its supply chain to tariffs. Read more:AI Sales Start to Justify Data-Center Spending Boom, Report SaysAnthropic Accuses Alibaba of ‘Illicitly’ Accessing AI Models Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Strait of Hormuz has (mostly) re-opened! Crude prices are still up since the start of the war with Iran, but popular predictions earlier this year of $200-a-barrel Brent didn’t pan out. Why is that? We last talked to Rory Johnston, the founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, at the start of the conflict. And in that conversation he said that the Strait’s closure would lead to $200 oil if it persisted for any length of time. Today, he returns to tell us what he’s learned about the oil market since then. He explains the various factors that kept a lid on prices, including some re-routing, Trump jawboning, and (crucially) surprise import reductions from China. Previous: Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The last time the World Cup came to the US was 1994. Before then, the World Cup was an enormously popular event with surprisingly limited commercial significance; the 1990 tournament in Italy, for instance, lost money for broadcasters. But that all changed in 1994, when American companies sought to make their mark in the form of advertisements and sponsorships: firms like McDonalds, Mastercard, and General Motors saw the potential to reach a global audience through one of the world's most watched sports events. Today, we speak with Joey D'Urso — a freelance sports journalist and author of the recent book More Than A Shirt: How Football Shirts Explain Global Politics, Money and Power — about the 1994 World Cup and this year's competition, which is being held jointly, by the US, Canada, and Mexico. We also talk about other surprising stories of corporate and geopolitical influence in the world of football. Read more:Unilever, Pepsi Tap Celebrities, Players During World CupMexico’s Sheinbaum Invites Merlín the Duck to National Palace Amid Soccer Craze Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China's AI industry has changed a lot since DeepSeek released its cheap frontier model last year, and briefly sent US tech stocks falling. After being locked out of the most advanced chips, Chinese companies are now allowed to buy some Nvidia H200s. In fact, many of the big Chinese tech companies — like Baidu — are making a push to become full-stack players, with their own chips, models, and cloud infrastructure. Today's guest is Grace Shao, an independent AI researcher and the author of the AI Proem Substack. She's a bit of an insider when it comes to China's AI industry, and when we were in Hong Kong we spoke with her about the latest in open-source models, the competition among Chinese frontier labs, DeepSeek's place in an increasingly crowded Chinese AI market, China's manufacturing edge, where bottlenecks exist right now (spoiler: it isn't data centers), if Chinese grandmas are actually using OpenClaw, and finally, of course, AI psychosis. Read More: China AI Lab’s 170% Stock Surge Cements Winner-Loser Pair Trade China Plans Mechanism to Evaluate AI Impacts on Job Market Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We closed out our New York live show on May 28 with a panel that featured three of our favorite Substackers: James van Geelen of Citrini Research, Sam Ro, founder of The TKer, and journalist Jasmine Sun. They've all been Odd Lots guests before, and we wanted to get them together to discuss how journalists and analysts are supposed to cover this incredibly strange and highly pressurized moment in markets. Not only has AI basically infected every corner of the world, the media included, but there's just so much news that it's sometimes hard to figure out what the focus should be. But James, Sam, and Jasmine have all found their own niches, and cover AI in a really unique way. This panel discussion debates how the media has covered fears over the AI bubble and the possibility of mass job loss, if people in Silicon Valley are scared about the future of society, if AI can really mimic a writer's voice and personality, and (if they can) how writers can hedge against that future. Read more: Amazon in Talks to Sell Custom AI Chips in Bid to Undercut Nvidia AI Company Dream Triples Value to $3 Billion in Funding Round Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s a lot to unpack with AI right now — everything from its potential impacts on the labor market and society to more extreme questions about existential risk. Anthropic, which builds frontier models like Mythos, Fable, and Claude, is actively grappling with these issues, including whether governments should limit AI development. Just last week, the Trump administration forced Anthropic to block foreign access to its two leading models. In this episode, we speak with Jack Clark (co-founder and head of public benefit) and Peter McCrory (head economist) about how Anthropic approaches safety and economic risks. We talk about its preparations for recursive self-improvement, the engineers it's hiring now, and why Jack left Bloomberg to enter the early AI industry. Read more:Anthropic Lays Out Vision for How to Bolster AI Models’ SafetyMicrosoft Makes Big AI Inroads in China by Selling OpenAI Models Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and long-term strategist of GMO, has a long history of calling bubbles. As he recounts in his new memoir, The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-Term Investing in a Short-Term World, that includes spotting the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, which some people see as analogous to the current excitement over AI. And when it comes to today's market, there are a lot of signs of frothiness you could point to. In this episode, we speak to Grantham about how he sees markets right now, including a watershed change for Big Tech stocks, the signs he watches out for to spot when a bubble might burst, and what really keeps him up at night. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz offers relief, but Asia’s economic woes are far from over. Beyond the chokepoint, the conflict has forced long-lasting shifts in Asia’s food and energy flows.On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, Oanh Ha joins Odd Lots co-hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal to discuss why Asia is reeling from the conflict and what the “new normal” looks like for global supply chains. Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When we spoke to DRW's Don Wilson last year, he talked about building out a GPU market that might be bigger than oil. Now, a year later, he is working with Carmen Li to do just that. Li is the CEO of two companies — Silicon Data and Compute Exchange (where she works alongside Wilson). The former company is building the index for GPU pricing while the latter is a spot marketplace for GPU procurement. Today's episode — recorded at our live show at City Winery in New York — gets into how Li is building a whole new market for GPUs at her two companies. We talk about the challenge of standardizing compute, GPU price volatility, if used GPUs are like used cars, what goes into constructing a GPU index, and what it means to win the GPU lottery. Read more:Jane Street Plans New Data Center as Computing Power Runs ScarceSpaceX Inks $30 Billion Computing Power Deal With Google Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anjney Midha wrote the first check to Anthropic. He teaches a viral course at Stanford on how AI works. And he was, until recently, a partner at a16z. In other words, he is AI-industry royalty. Midha's new project is AMP PBC, a company that believes it can radically lower the price of compute. To accomplish that, he is working on building a compute grid that turns GPUs into a standardized utility. But right now, compute is too fragmented. It's too heterogeneous. And given the way contracts are structured, he says that labs are being forced to spend money on capacity that often goes unused. In other words, small labs are forced to pay up for big, long-term contracts, even though their own demand (particularly during model training) may be very spiky. On this episode, Midha explains how the market for compute currently works and why he believes there's a software solution that could significantly improve compute utilization. He also tells us why he does not anticipate one company will emerge as the dominate player and that instead we'll have a wide range of models, each optimally used in specific applications. Read more: Amazon Says Its Data Centers Use 2.5 Billion Gallons of Water Oracle Falls Most in Six Months on Mounting Data Center Costs Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The hay market is not a transparent market: It is very fractured by types of hay, whether it is alfalfa or clover hay. There are a few opaque, illiquid markets like this — scrap metal for instance — that require some hands-on investigating to figure out. Aiden Johnson is co-founder and CEO of the HayWire newsletter, which aims to make the hay market more transparent: He and co-founder Cole Glasgow use an AI model to mine public data sources — like USDA reports on auction prices across different regions — to produce a weekly newsletter on the hay market. On this episode, we speak with Johnson as he explains why he chose hay over other kinds of markets, how HayWire was made possible through vibecoding, networking with hay farmers, why the ROI of owning a horse is dropping with hay prices spiking, and why hay demand keeps on tightening. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In April, the price of tomatoes was around $2.69 per pound — the highest seen in some four decades. And tomatoes aren't the only food getting more expensive. From cauliflower to lettuce, fresh produce is spiking all over the place. So what's driving the price spike? And what can tomatoes teach us teach about America's political economy including changes in trade and tariffs? Our guest today is Jacob Krempel, senior vice president of procurement and merchandising at the wholesale food distributor Baldor, and an expert in securing fresh produce. We talk to him about where America's tomato supply actually comes from, why consumers are paying more and more, how restaurants navigate price fluctuations, and the influx of novel new tomato varieties. Read more:The Recipe for a Power Restaurant Has ChangedThe Latest Snack Innovations Are Basically Just Creamsicles and Chex Mix Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When we last spoke to Brannin McBee, the co-founder and chief development officer of cloud company CoreWeave, his business was not yet public and sourcing GPUs was a key constraint on growth. But three years later, things look pretty different. CoreWeave IPOed and has been raising money in the bond market too, as well as signing more deals with chipmaker Nvidia. In fact, investors have basically been throwing money at all-things-AI. But there are persistent bottlenecks to further growth. Chip supply is still scarce, but so are transformers and electricity. In this episode, we catch up with Brannin on everything he's seeing in the market for compute right now, including leases, Nvidia's new Vera Rubin systems, demand for training versus inference, and the possibility of standardizing the market for compute. Read more: Trump Officials Worry US Loophole Let Chinese Firms Buy Nvidia Blackwell Chips Broadcom Slides Most Since January 2025 on AI Outlook Miss Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prediction markets that enable you to bet on pretty much everything are everywhere nowadays. But there's still a big question over whether they can expand to include larger institutional investors like hedge funds. Part of the problem is that a lot of prediction market contracts are illiquid and trading volumes can sometimes be shallow. That's where trading firm Susquehanna International Group comes in. In this episode, recorded live at New York's City Winery, we talk to Jeremy Maletz, Susquehanna's head of macro trading and prediction markets, about the firm's market-making business with Kalshi. We talk about how big investors could use prediction markets, what Susquehanna is seeing in terms of flows, how a market-maker hedges risk on these contracts, and how it makes money from them. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today’s episode, which was recorded at our recent live show at New York’s City Winery, follows up on a conversation we had with Iain Dunning, head of AI at Hudson River Trading. Last year, we talked about how his firm uses AI. Now, some seven months later, we follow up on how one of the biggest market makers around is deploying this technology. We talk about the price of memory, bottlenecks in compute, how much HRT employees are actually spending on tokens, why the firm might develop its own chips, as well as AI-induced delirium. Read more:Jane Street Plans New Data Center as Compute Power Runs ScarceNvidia-Backed Robotics Startup Generalist AI Valued at $2 Billion Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a lot of debate about the future of AI — not just whether it will produce the returns investors are expecting, but also if AI will lead to mass worker displacement. Big banks are the perfect prism through which to explore some of these questions. Not only are they deploying AI very quickly, but they have a wide range of workers who are using the technology, from back-office employees to junior analysts to the most senior investment bankers. In this episode, we speak with David Solomon, chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, about the impact of AI on the banking business, and why he does not predict a major white collar wipeout. We talk about the outlook for headcount, current conditions in capital markets, and the bank's role in the upcoming SpaceX IPO and Alphabet's historic equity capital raise. He also tells us about his early career in junk bonds and (because of his love of electronic dance music) how AI is transforming music production. Read: Anthropic Picks Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs to Lead IPO Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We talk about the commodity supply chain all the time. We talk about the ports and the trucks and the ships and all of that. But there's another dimension to moving commodities all around the world, which is actually paying for it. Who funds the oil tanker and what happens when that tanker is, say, stuck in the Strait of Hormuz? Commodity finance underpins production, transportation and storage of a wide variety of the things that make the modern world, but you tend to only hear about it when things go wrong. Today we speak with Lewis Hart, head of corporate advisory and banking at Brown Brothers Harriman. We discuss how the business of commodity finance actually works, how risk is priced, what makes for a good or bad warehouse, and the difference between financing a commodity you can hedge (like oil) versus one where's there's no futures market (like cashews). Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rope is easy to take for granted. It seems obvious and straightforward. But of course, it had to be invented. Early humans discovered that by twisting fibers around each other, the resulting structure would be something durable and strong. Without rope, all kinds of things aren't possible, from lifting objects into the air to whaling or modern bridges. So how was it developed and what were the big breakthroughs in its history? On this episode, we speak with Tim Queeney, the author of the recent book Rope: How a Bundle of Twisted Fibers Became the Backbone of Civilization. He walks us through the history of the technology, and its ongoing evolution, including how it might one day allow to build an elevator into outer space. Read more: Japan Cablemaker Rout Exposes Cracks in AI Infrastructure Rally Why Huawei’s New Chipmaking Plan Has Investors Buzzing Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's been a massive selloff in the bond market and rates are rising all around the world. Japan, Korea, the UK... You name it. Gita Gopinath, Harvard economics professor and the former first deputy managing director of the IMF, has long warned that bond markets are "in a fragile place." She sees a confluence of demographics, high levels of public debt, and the intense capital needs of the AI boom creating inflationary pressure all around the world. Today we speak with Gopinath about the seeming disconnect between stocks and bonds and why investors may be wrong to assume that governments will have their back the next time there's a major shock. Read more: US Bonds’ Return to Pre-War Calm Fuels Bets It’ll Be Short-Lived China Sells $885 Million of Green Bonds in Hong Kong Debut Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We love talking about money. And of course, we love talking about the dollar, in all its varieties — from bank deposits to eurodollars to stablecoins. But what fundamentally is a dollar and who actually controls it? To understand these questions, you need to understand how the dollar was born. Journalist (and current Ph.D. candidate in financial history) Brendan Greeley argues not only that the dollar is older than you might suspect, but that the dollar long precedes the United States itself. In fact, the word is derived from German, referring to a Spanish currency made from silver found in Mexico. In this episode, we discuss Brendan's new book, The Almighty Dollar: 500 Years of the World's Most Powerful Money. He explains not only the dollar's surprising history, but also what actually backs the US dollar and gives it purchasing power. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As our listeners know, restaurants are great microcosms for macro-economic trends. They sit at the intersection of everything from consumer confidence to commodity costs to the labor market. So on our recent visit to London, we wanted to learn about the business of pubs. According to the British Beer and Pub Association, approximately two pubs a day have closed in England during the first quarter of 2026. Could pubs tell us something about larger trends in the British economy? And when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the business: How is a pub different from a regular bar? And how are publicans — pub managers — dealing with the era of the £10 pint? Today's episode is a special two-parter, devoted to the business of pubs. We talk to Oisin Rogers and Ashley Palmer-Watts, co-founders of the Devonshire, a famed London pub. The first part is with Rogers, who is the publican, and we discuss the difference between a good and bad pub, why he hates the word 'gastropub,' and how the indoor smoking ban changed the meaning of pubs for the average Londoner. Second up is a segment from our London live show with the Devonshire chef Palmer-Watts, who tells us about the complicated confluence of factors — from temperature to the right mix of gases — that lead to a perfect pint of Guinness, why higher ingredient costs (whether it's beef or scallops) don't always correlate to higher menu prices, and making a Victorian-era meat fruit for Apple's Jony Ive. Read more: Reeves Floats Price Freezes on Food in Bid to Cut UK Bills Inflation Resurgence Squeezes US Voters as Gas, Food Prices Rise ?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Not many people think of designing buildings as an exercise in economics, but the entire process is defined by constraints around resources (both physical and financial), and an iconic building can also have a huge impact on the wealth and development of the area around it. So how do you encourage private developers to consider the public good when designing new projects? And how are some countries able to encourage more landmark building projects than others? In this episode, we speak with Norman Foster, renowned architect and founder of Foster + Partners. We talk to him about how constraints impact his own design process, how building budgets actually work, what makes a building successful in the long run, why China keeps completing mega-project after mega-project, and why places like the UK and the US are now struggling to keep up. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A short seller is a gumshoe who roots out a particular story about a specific company and brings it to light. And Fahmi Quadir, the founder and CIO of Safkhet Capital, has been labeled "The Assassin" for being one of the most famous, successfully betting against companies like Wirecard and Valeant. In today's conversation with Quadir, recorded at our live show in London at Wilton's Music Hall, she dishes on what life is like for a short seller and why betting against stocks has been getting harder even during what she calls a "golden age of fraud." She also reveals that she's going long for the first time ever by investing strategically in one of the world's best-performing markets. Read more:Korea Exchange Is Said to Launch Weekly Options on Single StocksSwiss Pension Fund Eyes $1.1 Billion Private Credit Investment Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Size is the name of the game for the AI chipmaker Cerebras: Their chips are truly massive, about the size of a dinner plate. According to Andrew Feldman, CEO and founder of Cerebras, that is about 58 times larger than the average chip. That sheer size enables blazing fast inference for AI queries. Feldman joins us on the week of his company's IPO to talk about his core product and how it fits into the AI boom. We discuss the history of the GPU, competition between open-and closed-source models, the company's relationship with with TSMC, and more. Read more:Nvidia Tells Skeptical Investors That AI Is Ready to Go MainstreamTrump Set to Sign AI Cybersecurity Directive as Soon as Thursday Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It is hard to have a markets conversation that isn't out of date within a minute or two. But we think this one, with Ozan Tarman and Aditya Singhal of Deutsche Bank, is basically evergreen. This conversation, recorded at our live show at Wilton's Music Hall in London, is all about fundamentals: How Tarman, DB's vice chair of global macro, and Singhal, the firm’s head of EM trading across rates, FX and Credit, make sense of conflicting headlines, whether the rally in tech stocks is to be believed, the tug of war between fast money and central bankers, and how traders are evaluating the difference between the AI models coming out of the US and China. Read more:Global Inventory Race Intensifies in Shadow of the Iran WarEmerging Carry Trade Rebounds, Top Picks Include Real, Rand Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whether it's the price of a barrel of Brent crude or a pound of beef, it's clear prices are skyrocketing for all kinds of goods and commodities. Price shocks and shortages are, if anything, the way consumers understand the economy right now — at the grocery store or at the gas pump. Certainly, current (and future) shocks can be explained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But the environment is weirder than just across the board price increases: The price of corn has barely moved, for instance, while fertilizer just keeps going up. We have not one but two perfect guests to talk to us today, our favorite commodity specialists: Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas and Lorcan Roche Kelly, the business editor at Irish Farmers Journal. Today's episode — which was recorded on stage at Wilton's Music Hall in London as part of our first ever show outside the US — covers how the world's farmers feel about US trade policy, why today's energy shock is so different from 2022's, the true impact of the UAE leaving OPEC, and why it's going to get harder to buy hard cheese in the near future. Read more: Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook Investors China Allows Exports for 425 US Beef Plants, Trade Group Says Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The internet is made for shopping. For years, the main inputs for e-commerce transactions involved targeted ads, algorithmic recommendations, SEO, and lots of mindless scrolling. But agentic commerce might represent a sea change for e-commerce: With the rise of AI agents doing shopping on behalf of consumers, how are retailers going to adapt? John Collison, co-founder of the financial services and payment processing company Stripe, has first-hand experience with all the ways e-commerce has changed in the last decade, and he thinks agentic commerce is going to completely transform the online shopping experience. On this episode, we speak to Collison about how AI has already changed the way consumers make purchasing decisions, why keyword search is a "ridiculous" way to find things to buy, what it means when brands will have to appeal to AI agents as opposed to human buyers, and if AI agents can truly mimic human taste. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Making a long career as a bear at a sell-side institution is tough. Generally financial markets have done quite well which means forecasting doom and gloom is, usually, only tenable for so long. Which is why we wanted to talk to one of the most successful bears out there. Société Générale has let Albert Edwards out of the bear cage for today's episode. Edwards knows his reputation as a bear is well deserved: He believes, among other things, double-digit inflation is in the offing. We also talk about the attention span of readers on the buy-side, what success looks like for a bear, and how a bear avoids getting fired. Read more:Boeing Falls After Trump Unveils Smaller China Aircraft OrderBOE’s Pill Says Strong Iran Price Pressures Warrant Rate Rise Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last year, when we talked to Martin Wolf, the global order seemed like it was being upended after President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs against nearly every US trading partner. A lot has happened since then. In fact, April 2025 seems almost quaint when compared to 2026 so far, from the Supreme Court's tariff ruling to the US-Israel war with Iran. The war's effect on the world's economy is at once stunning and utterly strange: even as the prices of major commodities — oil chief among them — rise, the markets seem unaffected, closing at record levels in recent weeks. Today we speak with Wolf, the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times, about all this chaos and why, so far, it seems disconnected from the logic of the market. There is, he says, a great deal of ruin in the world economy, but growth remains a constant fact of life. Why is that? There's no straightforward answer, but to begin understanding how we got here, Wolf takes us to the early 20th century and paints us a picture of the world after the two World Wars. We also talk about the "terrifying" power that the US wields over the globe, how a fragmented Europe is navigating anxious relationships with both the US and China, the Faustian bargain AI represents, and much more. Read more: Oil Inventories Falling at Record Pace on Iran War, IEA Says Undersea Internet Cable Projects Are Getting Tangled in the Iran War Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In 2006, then-Senator Ted Stevens coined an infamous term for how to understand the internet: It's a "series of tubes." The funny thing is, that's a fairly accurate description. Underneath the world's oceans, miles and miles of fiber optic-cables send packets of information from one location to the next, serving as the backbone of the internet as know it. This infrastructure is delicate, too: Memorably, a 2022 volcanic eruption cut off the island of Tonga from web access for an extended period of time. Journalist Samanth Subramanian is the author of The Web Beneath the Waves: The Fragile Cables That Connect Our World, a book that explains, in detail, that the internet is not, and has never been, truly weightless or wireless. In fact, the system in place right now is pretty old school and resembles the telegraph cable network of yore. We talk to Subramanian about the strange contradictions of the undersea cable system, how much basic marine geography — like the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal — informs where cables are laid, and how hard it is protect this vulnerable and vital infrastructure. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ever since Covid, central banks around the world have had the same problem. They have tools that are designed to modulate demand, but so many challenges have involved the supply side of the economy. Whether we're talking about supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and now the war in Iran, these are all issues for which monetary policy is of limited value. Of course, the temptation is to "look through" these events, recognizing the fact that these disruptions don't say much about the actual underlying state of the economy. But when we get one shock after another, it gets harder and harder to keep using words like "transitory." On this episode we speak with Megan Greene, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England. We talk about the compounding effects of all these shocks (including the trade war and Brexit), how she's thinking about the first- and second-order effects of each, and why for now, despite the underlying weakness of the UK economy, she remains squarely focused on the risks of higher inflation. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's guest Mariana Mazzucato is one of our most requested. Mazzucato, a professor of economics at University College London and the founding director of its Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, specializes in the political economy of technological development and public sector investment. In our conversation, recorded in Madrid while at the Bloomberg CityLab conference, she explains her concept of the "mission economy," her definition of state capacity, how to prevent top talent from fleeing to the private sector, and whether consultants or governments should be blamed for inefficiencies and civic failures. It's a wide-ranging interview, one that covers everything from the initial public financing of Silicon Valley algorithms to the history of moonshots.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The residents of Allentown are still sore about that Billy Joel song. While it's true the Pennsylvania city became synonymous with deindustrialization after the US steel industry began its decline in the 1970s, Allentown should be known for more: In the 1950s, for instance, some of the first mass-produced transistors were made in the city, which were the precursor of today's semiconductors. The city is also a unique logistics and e-commerce hub — it's a day's drive from nearly 40 percent of the US population. Mayor Matthew Tuerk, who has held office since 2022, has made reindustrialization a focus of his mayorship. In today's episode, recorded in Madrid at the Bloomberg CityLab conference, we speak to Mayor Tuerk about the city's grand strategy for building back and sustaining its manufacturing base, implementing industrial policy on a local level, how rezoning has changed in the last decade, the political puzzle of data centers, recruiting companies to come to Allentown, de-risking the American supply chain, and our favorite new category of industry — weight-gaining industries — which Allentown specializes in. Read more:New Brookfield Venture May Restart Abandoned US Nuclear ProjectTexas Ranch Lures Futuristic Startups to Revive US Manufacturing See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Since Mayor Brandon Scott took office in 2020, he's fixated on a very visible problem in Baltimore: the tens of thousands of vacant homes that dot the city. It's hard to build new houses when there are so many that sit empty and unused. And the process of tracking down owners, convincing them to sell their vacant properties, and then converting those homes into usable housing supply is a tall task. In the last few years, the number of vacant homes in Baltimore has dropped from 16,000 to just over 11,800. On this episode — recorded in Madrid while we attended the Bloomberg CityLab conference — we speak to Mayor Scott about deindustrialization, redlining, and gun violence's historical effects on the current housing crisis, how his government identifies, block-by-block, redevelopment opportunities and matches projects with publicly-minded developers, and why Baltimore natives aren't huge fans of The Wire. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Two years ago, Citadel's Ken Griffin paid almost $45 million for a stegosaurus skeleton, making it the most expensive fossil ever sold at auction. So why are dinosaur bones joining the collections of millionaires instead of museums? How does the private market for fossils actually work? And how similar is it to the market for art and other antiquities? In this episode, we speak with Salomon Aaron, a director at London-based gallery David Aaron, where he is the gallery's in-house broker for dinosaur fossils. We talk about how fossils are found and priced, what it's like to work alongside dinosaur hunters, how his gallery identifies potential buyers, and why Joe thinks something about the birds-to-dinosaurs evolutionary pipeline is off. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the potential for long-running theoretical chokepoints to turn into reality, with dramatic results for both geopolitics and the global economy. But the hypothetical scenario that policymakers have arguably been losing the most sleep over for decades is the prospect of a major conflict between China and Taiwan. So how likely is it, and what would such a conflict actually look like? On this episode, we speak with Eyck Freymann, author of the new book, Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War With China, and a fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. We discuss Xi Jinping's strategy, whether Taiwan's "silicon shield" of semiconductor manufacturing can last forever, the state of Taiwan's domestic politics, and what the US can do to deter such a conflict. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The last few decades have been marked by a number of megatrends in finance including the extraordinary growth of asset managers, the rising importance of technology, and the ascent of private markets. BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, is emblematic of all these developments. On this episode, we talk to BlackRock COO Rob Goldstein about the company's early technological history, the development of its famous risk management technology Aladdin, and how BlackRock is navigating being both a user and major provider of AI. We discuss his view of the 'SaaSpocalypse,' how BlackRock is thinking about token consumption and compute constraint, as well as the future of private markets. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The private credit market has grown enormously fast in recent years — so much so that by some estimates it's now bigger than the market for junk-rated corporate bonds. So what's driven all that growth? What impact has private credit had on other types of corporate debt? And why are there so many concerns around the space right now? In this episode, we speak with John Sheehan and Craig Manchuck, two veteran portfolio managers for the strategic income fund at Osterweis Capital Management. We talk about the history of private credit before and after 2008, private credit's links with private equity and insurance, the prospect of higher defaults, and what to watch for right now. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We live in an era of charts that are going up and to the right. This image obviously describes the stock market, particularly any company whose business is adjacent to artificial intelligence. But beyond stocks, another sort of chart we keep seeing is of AI capabilities also going up and to the right. The most famous and viral of these comes from an organization called METR, which stands for Model Evaluation and Threat Research. The organization is focused on understanding the degree to which AI models can engage in autonomous, complex tasks. METR see this is as a particularly important benchmark, given the risk that AI could one day be engaged in recursive self improvement, taking humans out of the loop. But how do you really gauge a model's ability to do complex problems. And what is being measured for exactly? On this episode, we speak with METR's President Chris Painter as well as Joel Becker, a member of the technical staff who works on evaluation methods for the organization. We discuss both the mechanics and the philosophy of METR's work, and what it means when we see a a chart showing that Clause Opus 4.6 can do a task that would take a human nearly 12 hours. Read more: DeepSeek Unveils Flagship AI Model a Year After Breakthrough Meta Inks Deal to Use Amazon’s Graviton Processors for AI Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're living in an extraordinary moment for Latin American politics. From the ousting of Maduro to the ongoing oil blockade of Cuba to Javier Milei revving up a chainsaw at CPAC. Various leaders in different countries are taking different approaches to their relationship with the US. Each is aware that there is a high value in being close to Trump, but also each know that Trump won't be the US President forever. So how should we understand the different approaches being taken? Today we talk to James Bosworth, who is the the founder of Hxagon, a company that does political risk analysis and research primarily in Latin America. He is also the author the Latin America Risk Report newsletter. Our conversation with Bos covered what he calls the "orange shift," a region-wide realignment towards dealmaking with the Trump administration. We discuss how Latin American leaders are dealing with inflation, why Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum and El Salvador's Nayib Bukele are so popular, how Brazil's Lula has surprised economic observers, and whether Trump will be able to find a "Delcy" elsewhere in the region. Read more: Brazil Oil Driller Expanding in Venezuela as US Eases Sanctions Mexico Inflation Slows Slightly, Keeping Another Rate Cut in Play Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Not too long ago, search engines were the dominant form of querying the internet. But that's changing since the rise of large language models like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google's Gemini. More and more people are getting their online info through AI, effectively bypassing the search bars of old and creating a tension for large tech companies that offer AI models, but also make money from web traffic and search-related advertising. In this episode, we speak with Elizabeth Reid, VP of search at Google. Liz has been with the company for more than two decades, witnessing multiple tech transformations in that time. So we talk with her about how Google is incorporating Gemini into search via AI overviews, what that means for traffic and ad sales, and the practical experience of search in an age of LLMs and internet slop.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When it comes to the history of oil and energy, nobody is more famous or well respected than Daniel Yergin. He is the Vice Chairman of S&P Global, and the Pulitzer Prize winning author of both The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations. So we had to get his insights on the war in Iran, and its historical significance. Yergin tells us that a "different world" will emerge from the crisis surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of the war's ultimate outcome. Iran's ability to control the Strait against a much stronger military is a demonstration that the balance of global power is changing, with profound ramifications for countries around the world. We discuss how different regions are being affected, and how it will change their calculus when it comes to energy security. We also talk about the AI industry's seemingly insatiable demand for electricity, and how this is rippling across the entire energy landscape. Read more:Oil Traders Warn of Recession Impact as Hormuz Hits DemandChina Aggressively Sold Oil in Recent Weeks, Mercuria CEO Says Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

He's done it again. On Sunday night, building supply company QXO announced that it would be acquiring TopBuild for $17 billion. TopBuild sells and installs insulation for both the residential and commercial markets. For Brad Jacobs, the CEO of QXO, this is just the latest in a lifetime of deals he's made. In fact, he's made over 500 deals in his life across numerous public companies that he's founded, most of which have XO somewhere in the ticker. Brad's companies all tend to be highly focused on the so-called "old economy" or real physical world, but of course, as we've seen with the datacenter boom, the old economy is still hot and crucial. So we talk about the logic behind this deal, how the insulation market works, and the general state of the building supply market right now.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The White House wants gasoline prices to be lower, and it wants to see American oil companies drill for more oil. But of course, these ideas are in tension. If prices are going lower, why drill more? This tension has only grown sharper since the shale busts of the mid-2010s, as American producers got burned multiple times by prioritizing production over profits. So what now? How do US producers think about the recent oil price spike? How are they thinking about the rising costs of their own production, due to higher energy, labor, and steel costs? On this episode, we speak with Jack McClendon, the founder and CEO of Siena Natural Resources, an independent oil and gas company that primary buys odd lots of wells from other companies. We talk about the long-term economics of the industry, including the central role of capital markets in determining how the industry moves. He also tells us whether the show Landman is realistic. Read more: Oil Tankers Hauling US Crude Via Panama Approaching 4-Year High The US Oil Industry Doesn’t Want the Iran War Either Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows that new technologies can be really disruptive to the labor market, but eventually new jobs emerge and things come back into balance. And there is a sense in which many view AI with the same lens. Yes, there will be pain in some sectors, but then there will be productivity gains and new sources of demand and new opportunities for labor that we can't conceive of yet. But could it be different this time? Could AI be disruptive in a manner that, say, the steam engine was not? On this episode we speak with Alex Imas, a professor at the University of Chicago focusing on economics and applied AI. We talk about his work on the AI and labor question, how to think about which jobs may be most at risk, and why the sheer speed of AI development could make it categorically different than prior general purpose technologies that came before it. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are a lot of things to be annoyed about in modern life. The high cost of food and housing and childcare. Dating apps that don't seem to work. The fear of AI replacing you at your job. These are all common complaints and concerns, and each of them can be traced to a specific economic phenomenon or market structure issue. Once you start thinking about the world in this way, you can't unsee it. In this episode, we speak with Planet Money co-host Mary Childs, and contributor to the podcast, Alex Mayassi. They've just written a book called Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life. We discuss how one of Tracy's childhood memories was a reflection of the commodity trap, what Baumol's cost disease tells us about daycare, and why -- despite all these frustrations -- there are still many reasons to be optimistic about economic progress. Read more: Australia Secures Fertilizer From Indonesia to Meet Crop Needs Kerrygold Butter Maker Sees Iran War Costs Hitting Consumers Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's possible that the war in Iran could reshape financial flows in significant ways. Perhaps the Gulf states will end up as less desirable places to do business. Perhaps Iran will have a tollbooth at the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps this episode will accelerate the world's shift away from oil. It's impossible to say. But given the uncertainty, fresh questions are being raised about the existing financial world order, upon the top of which the US dollar sits. On this episode, we speak once again with Brad Setser, the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We discuss how the war is already creating new global imbalances, and the degree to which this episode parallels past energy shocks. We also talk about broader trends in reserve management, other factors driving financial flows, and the unique situation facing East Asia, which is seeing a surge in its energy import bills at the same time its making making a fortune selling chips for the AI boom. Read more: US Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Made Before Trump Pivots China’s $51 Trillion Savings Help Bonds to Outperform During War Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Iran has caused the price of all kinds of commodities to surge, and that has a negative economic impact almost everywhere. But the squeeze is really being felt hard in East Asia, which is the ultimate destination for a lot of oil and gas that come out of the Gulf. And though the Strait of Hormuz may eventually re-open, and the acute pain may pass, this episode may already be reshaping the future. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Alex Turnbull, an investor based in Singapore, and a researcher on energy topics with the Australian National University. He argues that the war will accelerate the region's appetite to restart nuclear power plants, ultimately lessening its dependence on imported natural gas. He also notes that per his channel checks, the region is already seeing a jump in demand for electric vehicles, with BYD dealers holding less and less inventory on hand.Read more: US, Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks as Blockade Stops ShipsThere Are No Easy Exits From Iran for the US Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's fueling the A.I. bubble, it's coming to your retirement portfolio—and it's flashing a lot of warning signs right now.In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, private credit or “shadow banking” grew as an alternative to the regulations and shared risk that institutional banks operate within. What happens if a crisis hits the trillions of dollars that are outside of those guardrails? We may be about to find out. Guest: Tracy Alloway, co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast.https://slate.com/podcasts/what-next-tbd See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Regardless of whether the war with Iran continues, it seems likely to have a lasting impact on the Gulf states. They may have to rebuild damaged pipelines and other infrastructure, or create new ones that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They might have to spend more money on their own defense, or intensify a push to diversify their economies away from oil. New political alliances may be formed, and old ones could fall apart. In this episode, we bring back Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics, to discuss the many ways the war could impact the region for years to come. Read more: Gulf Airspace Disruptions From Iran War Hits Seychelles Tourism Bankers Start Weighing UAE Return Hours After US-Iran Ceasefire Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks have gone up over the years because corporate earnings continue to grow. That part is straightforward. But in addition to rising stock prices, we've also seen rising stock market valuations. For years, investors have talked about stocks being unreasonably priced, and yet they haven't reverted to historical norms. But perhaps there's a good explanation for this, beyond just animal spirits. Jonathan Heathcote is an economist at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, who recently co-authored a paper titled, A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios. Along with co-authors Andrew Atkeson and Fabrizio Perri, they argue that while stocks may look rich on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, they look a lot better when based on free cash flow. In other words, because companies haven't had to invest much, their equity is more valuable. Furthermore, labor's share of the profits — the percentage that goes to workers relative to capital — has been on the decline. Of course, these days the big story is about how big, profitable tech companies are spending a fortune on capital expenditure for the AI buildout. So we talked to Jonathan about his research and discuss the possibility that this trend in free cash flow growth could reverse, and therefore hit stock market valuations, too. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When the conflict with Iran started, some of the first headlines we saw had to do with shipping insurance. Marine insurers were said to be canceling war risk coverage for vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz. Premiums were said to surge. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced it would offer its own insurance for ships traversing the Persian Gulf, in an effort to get things moving again. So why is insurance such a crucial part of maritime trade? And how does the system actually work? In this episode, we speak with Dorothea Ioannou, CEO of the American P&I Club, and Steven Ogullukian, the club's reinsurance director. We talk about the different roles of insurers, reinsurers, insurance clubs, and why ships need to have separate coverage for things like war, liability and hull loss. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what's being traded on those platforms, there's a whole range of stuff from elections to sports to real economic outcomes, to totally gonzo random stuff, like who will win the next season of Big Brother. So far, sports is where a lot of the money is. But at least in theory, prediction markets could be a popular instrument for professional, institutional traders. Thomas Peterffy is the founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, one of the most successful and groundbreaking electronic brokerages for both institutions and serious retail traders. Now Interactive Brokers is getting into the predictions space. In this episode, we talk to Peterffy on why he believes prediction markets will be the next big thing in markets, why he thinks his firm could be a major player, and what it will take to transform the space from a large curiosity to something seriously used by institutions.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The story of how a secret project at Google led to driverless cars on American roads. And, an answer to the question: are the robots actually safer drivers than we are? Find Part 2: “The Trial of the Driverless Car” HERE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The relationship between the US and Europe is deteriorating along both security and economic dimensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs, while also being sharply critical of NATO allies. So what are European leaders to do? Hope things go back to normal in the US? Or perhaps become closer with China? Our guest on this episode says the latter would be a grave mistake. This episode was recorded live on April 1 at the DC headquarters of the Council on Foreign Relations. We spoke with Gina Raimondo, now a CFR Distinguished Fellow, who previously served as the commerce secretary in the Biden Administration, and prior to that was the governor of Rhode Island. She discusses her view that European industry is being hollowed out by China, and that the only path forward is a global, unified, non-China trading bloc, which is an idea that's being thwarted by the Trump administration. We also talk about the legacy of the CHIPS Act, and her fears about AI creating mass unemployment and destabilizing our democracy. Read more: US Lawmakers Propose Crackdown on Chip Tool Sales to China Cheap Chinese Cars Are Waiting on Detroit's Doorstep Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's obviously a lot of talk these days about AI and possible destruction of white collar jobs. Intuitively bankers might be expected to be victims of this. But before we can answer whether AI can disrupt an industry, or a line of work, we have to know what the job actually entails. What do investment bankers actually do, and why are they paid for it? To answer this question, we speak with Scott Bok, the longtime former CEO of the investment bank Greenhill. Scott is also the author of the book Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing. We discuss how the industry changed in his career, what type of people thrive in it, and how AI could change the nature of the profession. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When you consider the fact that many people don't know how and where to place a comma, it's safe to say that AI is already better than most people at writing. It's clean copy. It can be surprisingly persuasive. And sometimes, it's even informative. But there's frequently still something about it that just seems... off. Many people can tell quite quickly when they're reading AI-generated text. And beyond the style, the existence of AI generated text has all kinds of ramifications, from making it easier for students to cheat, to the rise of deceptive chatbots, to potentially degrading the experience on sites like Reddit. So how do you actually tell if a piece of writing was generated by AI? On this episode, we speak with Max Spero, the CEO of Pangram Labs, a company that built software to detect whether a piece of content was AI generated or not. We talk about the advanced techniques they use, the risk of false positives and false negatives, and what AI writing means in general for the future of the Internet. Read more:The AI Video Apps Gaining Ground After OpenAI Declared Sora DeadCredit Derivative Trading Shatters Records on Iran War, AI Fears Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the drawing down of inventories and distributions from strategic stockpiles. Meanwhile, there is some oil still on tankers that has yet to be delivered. According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, the potential remains for oil to go much, much higher. On this episode, we speak with Javier about the scale of the shock, why the pain is extraordinarily high in East Asia, how this compares to past oil shocks, and what the world would look like if Iran retains control of the Strait. Read more: Oil Falls on Signs From US, Iran of Openness for War Resolution Trump’s God Squad Exempts Gulf Drilling from Endangered Species Protections Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, NASA is scheduled to launch Artemis II, a mission that will send astronauts around the moon for the first time in more than 50 years. But this comes at a time when the space agency is facing some pretty big funding challenges, as well as growing competition with private players like SpaceX. In this episode, we speak with Alexander MacDonald, who served as NASA's first chief economist and is now a senior associate at the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. We talk about why the space agency had economists, how space exploration is funded, and how NASA measures its own economic impact. Please note, this episode was recorded March 10. Read more: Nasdaq Speeds Up Index Entry for SpaceX, Large IPOs With New Rule SpaceX Knocks Boeing From Dominant Role in NASA Moon Mission Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When we last spoke to Marco Argenti, chief information officer at Goldman Sachs, we were talking about how the bank was deploying AI, including the development of its own internal tools. But that was a year and a half ago and a lot has changed since then, especially with the arrival of agentic platforms like Claude Code. So what exactly is Goldman Sachs doing with AI now? And what has its experience with the new tech been like so far? On this episode, we catch up with Marco to discuss what AI deployment at the bank actually looks like at the moment — including how AI coding is changing the work of its developers and engineers — to all the data challenges and regulatory concerns that come with integrating this technology at scale. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The last big story right before the war in Iran started was the collapse in the relationship between the Pentagon and Anthropic, with the latter objecting to any potential use of its models in either fully autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance. Of course, this story immediately become more relevant with the start of the war, and the reporting that Anthropic's technology was in fact utilized at the start of hostilities. But what does that mean? How are these models used? And what would a fully autonomous weapons system actually entail? On this episode, we speak with Paul Scharre, the executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security. He has written two books on the subject of AI in warfare, and previously worked inside the Department of Defense on some of these very questions. We discuss the future of autonomous weaponry, and the various ethical and technological dimensions such weapons would entail. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ripple effects from the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to widen. There's yet another brewing shortage, this time in helium. While most people associate helium with balloons and funny voices, the element is used in a surprisingly wide variety of industrial settings, including semiconductor production, where its role in advanced lithography has been growing rapidly. But helium mining and exploration in North America has been practically non-existent for a variety of reasons. And while the US used to have a strategic helium reserve, the government started selling that down in the late 1990s. On this episode, we speak with Nicholas Snyder, the founder and CEO of North American Helium, which does helium mining in Canada. We discuss the properties of helium that make it so useful, as well as the difficulties of expanding global production and distribution.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are often said to be "headline-driven," but that cliché has rarely felt more true than it does right now. A single tweet or Truth Social post can send prices sharply higher or lower, and investors (especially in the rates market) have been forced to rapidly reposition in response. But even as volatility has increased, traditional safe haven destinations like gold haven't been rallying. So how are big accounts actually trading this market? In this episode, we bring back Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank and someone who meets regularly with large investors around the world. He tells us what he's seeing right now, including the potential for a squeeze higher in equities and left-tail risks in private credit. Read more:Oil Drops Near $102 as Traders Weigh Outlook for US-Iran TruceIran War Shows BRICS Limits as India Pushed to Choose Sides Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows by now that war in Iran is curbing the flow of oil around the world. But oil isn't just a gasoline and jet fuel story, of course. It's also a crucial feedstock for a bunch of petrochemicals, including the building blocks of a variety of plastics. And we're already seeing polyethylene prices start to surge, with some producers in Asia declaring force majeure and curbing their output. So how much of the world's petrochemicals supply is now in danger? And what does it mean for the future of plastics and packaging, which is basically in everything nowadays? On this episode, we're joined by Philip Geurts, chemicals and oil analyst at BloombergNEF, to walk us through the numbers. Read more:Oil Crunch Threatens South Korea’s Garbage Bag, Ramen SupplyIsrael Says War Isn’t Ending Even as Trump Touts Peace Talks Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nobody knows when or if AI will lead to mass displacement of white-collar work. But the anxiety is clearly here now, and there's very little evidence that our politicians are taking it seriously. Of course, there are at least two questions operating at once here. The first is whether or not AI really poses a significant threat to the existing labor market. And then the second one is about the correct policy response. This was the subject of a recent Odd Lots episode recorded live at SXSW in Austin, Texas. In this conversation, we were joined by David Shor, a political consultant, pollster and founder of Blue Rose Research, as well as Byrne Hobart, the writer of TheDiff newsletter, and a general partner at Anomaly Fund, an early-stage venture capital firm. We discuss the prospects of a labor market disaster, what David's polling says about the public view, and possible policy considerations that could be palatable to both industry and the general public. Read more: Fink Says AI Threatens to Leave Masses Behind Unless They Invest Private Capital Turns to Old Economy as Software Trade Dims Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dubai has become a huge destination for the rich, with an influx of high-net-worth residents driving up property prices and boosting the UAE's tax revenues in recent years. And of course, Gulf countries more broadly have a lot of oil wealth that they've ploughed into everything from real estate to private credit and tech. But the situation with Iran looks set to test that prosperity. In recent weeks, Iran has been attacking Gulf energy infrastructure and even launched drone strikes on residential areas in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In this episode, we speak with Hiten Samtani long-time Dubai resident, founder of Ten31 Media, and publisher of The Promote about what's behind Dubai's luxury boom, how Gulf capital has reshaped global finance including private credit, and what life in Dubai feels like amid rising geopolitical risk. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Here's Why is Bloomberg’s short explainer podcast, where we take one big news story and break it down in just a few minutes with help from our experts across the newsroom. We're dropping into your feed with a special episode featuring Joe Weisenthal, who joined us to discuss why the Iran war is prompting a safe haven rethink. In times of geopolitical turmoil, investors look for somewhere safe to put their money. US President Donald Trump's trade war helped to fuel a record rally for gold in 2025, but the Iran war is pushing investors to shelter in different places. Like what you hear? Subscribe to the Here’s Why podcast for more quick, expert-driven explainers available via the links below every Friday.  Apple Podcasts Spotify TuneIn Wherever you get your podcasts See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Iran has already lasted longer than many people might have expected. There was an initial assumption, after oil prices started surging, that President Trump could just declare victory at any moment. But that hasn't happened, and the longer this goes on, the more damage is being done to the region's energy infrastructure. Already a key gas plant in Qatar has been damaged so badly that it's expected to take it years to repair. On this episode, we speak with return guest Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group who specializes in energy and Iran. Beyond his current work, Greg is the author of two books on the history of oil in Iran. We discuss the logic of the war from both the Iranian and American perspectives, and why the Trump administration may have walked into a "strategic trap" with no easy way to declare victory and get out. Read more:Iran Leaves an Isolated Trump Grappling With Historic Oil CrisisHow Iran Has Effectively Closed the Strait of Hormuz Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

America’s farmers can’t seem to catch a break. Years of thin margins and rising costs have already stretched them to the limit. And now, war with Iran is making things even harder. The conflict is driving up global energy and fertilizer prices, pushing producers into tough decisions about what to plant and at what price to sell. At the same time, farmers are still dealing with the impact of tariffs, rising land costs, and stiff competition from agricultural powerhouses like Brazil. On this episode, we’re joined again by Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen, founders of Agris Academy, which advises farmers on managing risk. They walk us through how global turmoil reaches all the way into the US heartland and into the American food supply. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mostly, the world has been watching the price of oil skyrocket amid the war in Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But there's more than just oil that comes out of the region. Qatar is home to the world's largest natural gas field, and for now, it's been almost completely cut off from the rest of the world. Not only has Gulf gas supply been cut off, there's also damage to the core infrastructure, which will take time to repair. Meanwhile, the US is rapidly becoming a natural gas export powerhouse, with volumes having surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So, all in all, the world's natural gas map is rapidly being redrawn. On this episode, we turn to the one and only Bob Brackett, managing director and senior research analyst at Bernstein & Co. He explains the impact of the war on global prices, the prospect for further US exports, how the world will adjust to the loss of Gulf supply, as well as the other commodities that are getting squeezed right now.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Iran has been fought almost entirely in the skies, with both offensive missiles, as well as anti-missile defense systems. But the math is brutal. The war in Ukraine has already put a dent in American stockpiles, and now it is proving costly to protect American bases and their allies in the region against Iranian drones. On this episode, we speak with Tom Karako, a senior fellow and director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a top defense think tank in Washington DC. We discuss the size and scale of the American arsenal, the supply chain constraints for building more missiles, and the Pentagon's general attempts to ramp up production. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically. Furthermore, because Iran’s oil is sanctioned, a lot of it winds up at China’s so-called “teapot” refineries, which tend to be smaller and owned by independent companies. On the other hand, China has famously been building up its strategic petroleum stockpiles for years, and due to the rise of electric vehicles, they may have less economic sensitivity to the price of crude directly. On this episode, we speak with Erica Downs, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. Erica has a long background studying Chinese energy policy and she talks to us about the potential cost that the war is imposing on China’s economy, why the country has built up such a big buffer stock in the first place, and how this global oil shock could ultimately play to its advantage. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We tend to think of warfare in two distinct arenas: the physical and the digital. Increasingly, however, those lines are blurring. Last week, Iran launched drone strikes on data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. Israel has reportedly been hacking traffic lights in Tehran, and this week brought a suspected Iranian cyberattack on US medical device company Stryker, all underscoring long-held fears that hackers could take aim at vital physical infrastructure. On this episode, we speak with Matt Suiche, the legendary French hacker and founder of OnDB, a data infrastructure startup for agentic AI. We discuss what we know of Iran’s cyber capabilities, what digital warfare looks like today, and how AI is transforming coding and hacking. Read more: Stryker Remains Offline After Cyberattack Linked to Iran Group Google to Provide Pentagon With AI Agents for Unclassified Work Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all know that the war with Iran has sent oil prices spiking. But it’s also pushing up the cost of all sorts of chemicals, including fertilizers like urea, ammonia and other nitrogen products that are essential for food production. This is all happening at the worst possible time — just before the spring planting season, when fertilizer is most needed. And while farmers have seen higher spot prices for things like urea before, notably back in 2022, there are already signs that this crisis might be worse. So how is fertilizer actually made? And what do higher fertilizer costs mean for farmers and for food prices? On this episode we speak with Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst on Bloomberg Intelligence's agriculture team.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil has obviously spiked massively since the start of the war with Iran. And if you look at various end products, such as jet fuel, the surge is even more extreme. And if the war is prolonged, or if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be functionally blocked, then this could just be the start of an even bigger spike. On this episode, we speak with Rory Johnston, the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. Rory is typically a very level headed guy, and not a doomer at all. And even he is quite alarmed. He says that the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz is such big disruption to contemplate that it’s typically used as the worse case scenario in industry thought experiments. He walks us through how oil could go to $200 a barrel or beyond, resulting in higher prices at the pump for American consumers, and perhaps significant shortages in the rest of the world. Read more:Trump Signals Possible End to War, Floats Removing Oil SanctionsVenezuela Oil Buyer Says Its Cargo Is Sailing to Caribbean Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last year, we had Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on the podcast to talk to us about his company's plans to tokenize shares of private companies. The idea is that retail investors want to participate in hot names like OpenAI and SpaceX, and that tokenizing private equity would allow this to happen. Right after our episode though, a number of companies expressed frustration at the idea, saying that they were not voluntarily participating in the plan. So where do things stand now? And how is Robinhood thinking about how it will play in the red hot prediction market space? On this episode, Vlad returns to talk about where things stand, and all of the company's new efforts to give retail traders even more instruments to use. Read more: Polymarket Bets on Iran War Show Limits of Prediction Markets for Wall Street Robinhood Adds $695 ‘Actual’ Platinum Card to Compete With Amex Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A year ago, all of the talk was about how the big AI companies were wildly overvalued. Everyone was calling it a bubble. Fast forward to now, and a dominant idea in the markets is that AI is so powerful that all kinds of legacy businesses — particularly software — could go to zero. So where does the truth lie? And what now for AI valuations? On this episode, recorded live at the On Air podcast festival in Brooklyn on February 25, we catch up again with Henry Blodget, the former Wall Street analyst turned Business Insider CEO, who is now the founder of Regenerator. In a wide-ranging conversation, Henry argues against the software doom scenario, and sees problems for OpenAI as it faces massive spending costs with stiff competition. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With war breaking out in Iran, the price of oil is surging, in part due to the destruction of oil energy infrastructure, but also the ability of anything to get through the Strait of Hormuz. But it’s not just oil that moves through this key waterway — there are plenty of other goods, including metals and ingredients for fertilizer getting potentially constrained. It’s also not just the risk of violence itself that’s an issue for shipping companies, there’s also the question of how cargoes get insured. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with return guests Anton Posner and Margo Brock, co-founders of the Mercury Group, which helps dry bunk clients solve issues related to logistics, transportation and insurance. They discuss what’s actually happening on the ground, surging insurance rates, and how shippers and carriers are dealing with the chaos. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lloyd Blankfein was CEO of Goldman Sachs for more than a decade, riding the trading boom to the top of the storied investment bank and steering it through the 2008 financial crisis. In his new memoir, Streetwise: Getting To and Through Goldman Sachs, he writes about his journey from public housing in Brooklyn to the pinnacle of Wall Street. So what's he up to now? And how does he see markets and finance today? In this episode, we talk about deglobalization and Wall Street, the threats AI and tech pose to investment banking, risk management in private credit, and rich people's attitudes towards taxes. Plus, Lloyd shares some of what he left out of the book and he explains why he doesn't tweet more. Read more: Goldman’s Solomon Is Watching for ‘Frothiness’ in Private Credit Private Market Titans Warn of Pain as Credit Cracks Widen Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The average person can enter a stock trade on their computer, hit refresh, and the trade is done. As fast as that seems, there are professional traders moving even faster, executing thousands of trades per second. Over the years, the need for speed got so intense that competing firms would aim to get their own systems closer and closer to the exchange's computers, so as to minimize the length of the wires and get their trades in even faster. How did this happen? And how does this change the nature of trading itself? On this episode, we speak with Donald Mackenzie, a professor of sociology at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. Professor Mackenzie has been studying the intersection of finance and tech for a long time, and in 2021 wrote the book, Trading at the Speed of Light. We discuss the history of finance technology and look at where the technological arms race is going next. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'Bloomberg This Weekend' features unique conversations on business, news, lifestyle and culture. Join David Gura, Christina Ruffini and Lisa Mateo Saturdays and Sundays for discussions with business leaders, lawmakers and cultural icons.  Watch the show LIVE on Bloomberg Television from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time.   Listen to the show LIVE on Bloomberg Radio from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time.   Listen to the Podcast for the best conversations from the show.   Subscribe on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-this-weekend/id1878739308Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DQ8CEg9LeS1xGJSaxt47l See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Something very unusual happened in the market in the last week of February. It sold off, in part, thanks to an article on Substack. James van Geelen is the founder of Citrini Research, which published a piece a week ago titled, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” It was not written as a forecast of an imminent disaster, but rather as a scenario analysis in which AI capabilities lead to widespread white collar job losses, triggering a deep downturn, and a financial crisis. Nonetheless, the piece went extraordinary viral, gathering all kinds of responses from economists and research shops and even Citadel Securities. On this episode, we speak with James, the piece's co-author, about what Citrini Research actually is, why he wrote the piece, and why this is a scenario worth paying attention to, even if it's not the most likely outcome. Read more:Bank Shares Walloped by More AI and ‘Cockroach’ Credit WoesPentagon Casts Cloud of Doubt Over Anthropic’s AI Business Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were illegal. And now basically every importer who paid those tariffs will be rushing to get their refunds. But will businesses actually get paid? And how do they file a claim? And should consumers get refunded if a business passed the cost of the tariffs on to them? On this episode, we're rejoined by regular Odd Lots guest Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, a major freight forwarding company. We discuss how the entire refund process works, and the estimated timeline for payoff. We also talk about the booming secondary market in refund claims, where traders are buying up other people's claims for, in some cases, 50 cents on the dollar. Ryan also walks us through how world trade has changed since the tariffs began and the various way companies tried to game the system. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's hard to imagine New York City becoming significantly more affordable as long as it remains so expensive to build things. Whether we're talking about new housing or transportation, the city is a famously expensive place to do construction. There are reports of subway elevators costing $100 million per station. Public bathrooms end up costing millions as well. One driver of costs is insurance, which is a major national issue, but particularly acute in NYC, with costs as a share of a given construction project having surged over the decades. So what's the story? On this episode we speak with Elizabeth Crowley, the president and CEO of the Building Trades Employers' Association, as well as Michael Capasso, the president and CEO of CAC Industries, a civil engineering firm which works on various heavy construction projects in the city. We talk about regulations that push the cost of operation higher, along with other factors such as project delays and labor availability.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alison Roman is a cult figure in the world of food media. She's written multiple hit cookbooks and several of her recipes have gone viral. And her newsletter is incredibly popular. Now, she's putting her name on consumer goods, recently launching a new line of high-end jarred tomato sauce called, appropriately, A Very Good Sauce, which she sells direct online. So what has she learned about the consumer goods industry and its supply chain? On this episode, she explains why she entered the space, how she thinks about carving out a niche, and everything she's learned — from figuring out shipping to co-packing to designing a recipe that can be cooked in high volume. We also talk generally about the world of food and food media and how she thinks about bridging content and commerce. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani has certain ideas that make mainstream economists' head explode. Anything in the ballpark of rent control, specifically, is widely derided by defenders of the orthodoxy. But how did the orthodoxy become the orthodoxy? And how did the heterodoxy become the heterodoxy? On this episode, we speak with Jamee Moudud, a professor of economics at Sarah Lawrence College and author of the new book, Legal and Political Foundations of Capitalism. His scholarship sits at the intersection of economics and legal theory. He argues that one can not analyze the economy as if it were some separate thing that exists outside of the institutional and political realities of the time. We discuss the history of economics in the 19th and 20th centuries, and why certain ideas were adopted by the field, while others discarded and relegated to the margins. Read more: Mamdani Stacks NYC Board to Carry Out Promised Rent Freeze Mamdani Threatens to Hike NYC Property Tax to Fill Budget Hole Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This year could be a big one for IPOs. From Anthropic to SpaceX to OpenAI, we could see some gigantic companies hit the public market. But of course, the big story is that big, thriving companies feel less and less pressure to go public. In a different era, private giants like Databricks and Stripe might've IPO'd a long time ago. So what's changed? Why are companies comfortable staying private for so long? On this episode, we speak with David George, a general partner at Andreesen Horowitz, who leads the firm's growth investing team. He discusses how private markets have grown deeper and more liquid, which greatly reduces the need for companies to have public stock at all. We also talk about how he's thinking about the AI disruption trade, and when it makes sense for these private giants to bite the bullet and expose their stock to public investors. Read more: Private Equity Targets Clean Energy After Steep Drop-Off in 2025 Andreessen Horowitz Backs Unicorn Kavak in $300 Million Round Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The start of the year has been an absolutely brutal one for software companies. There’s a big fear that the rise of AI and advanced coding models will pull the rug out from this industry. But even before these AI fears, software companies were seeing their growth slow. So how does the business actually work? And more importantly, what types of companies will actually survive the “SaaSpocalypse”? (Or maybe “the CaSaaStrophe”?) On this episode, we speak with Jared Sleeper, a longtime software investor who is now a partner at Avenir. We talk about the history of software, the evolution of business models, and where the threat is most acute. He also talks about why investors are so nervous, and their fears that in the long term many of these companies will be worth zero, while in the short term, they’re not even making much money on a GAAP basis.Read more: Private Software Companies Release Earnings Early to Calm AI NervesSubscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, DRAM -- or Dynamic Random Access Memory -- was kind of a sleepy, commoditized aspect of chip industry. Growth was steady, but modest, and prices just generally drifted lower. Suddenly all that's changed. AI has created voracious demand for DRAM and consumer facing companies are being forced to either curtail supply or raise prices due to exploding costs. But what is it about AI that consumes so much memory, and when will the market rebalance itself? On this episode, we speak with Ray Wang, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, who recently co-authored a report titled, Memory Mania: How a Once-in-Four-Decades Shortage Is Fueling a Memory Boom. We discuss the implications of this memory boom, how producers are responding to surging prices, and whether or not the Chinese companies in the space can catch up to the Korean giants, such as Samsung and Hynix. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s an open secret that the Chinese government has engaged in a global campaign to acquire intellectual property from foreign rivals. At the center of that campaign is the Ministry of State Security, China’s elusive intelligence agency. The US has apprehended hundreds of people accused of giving information to the MSS, but the agency’s inner workings have been a mystery — until now. Today, we’re bringing you Episode 1 of The Sixth Bureau, a limited-run series from The Big Take. The series follows an MSS intelligence officer whose mission was to acquire the crown jewels of American aerospace companies. With aliases, blackmail and the occasional break-in, he targeted corporate giants. That is, until his sloppiness — and a cunning FBI sting — led to a stunning reversal: Xu Yanjun became the first Chinese intelligence officer ever convicted on American soil. Listen to Episode 2, available now in The Big Take. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The future is always tough to predict, but generally when it comes to inflation, a lot of the debate is about how long it will take the Federal Reserve to get back to its 2% target. In other words, people generally agree on the direction, but disagree on the speed. But our guest on this episode violently disagrees with the consensus direction. Peterson Institute President Adam Posen thinks inflation will be back at 4% by the end of the year. He first unveiled his thesis in a piece co-written with Lazard's Peter Orszag last month. Posen argues that the lagged effect of tariffs, immigration, further fiscal easing, and declining Fed credibility will combine to cause prices to reaccelerate. In this conversation, we speak with Posen about his thesis, and why he thinks the reports of economic softening are mistaken. We also talk about the broader geopolitical landscape and whether Europe is ready to really change its relationship with the United States.More: A Very Non-Consensus Inflation Call Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We are rapidly entering a world in which there are odds on virtually everything. During the recent Super Bowl, the big prediction market platforms didn't just offer bets on the game itself, but also on more exotic facets, such as the first song that Bad Bunny would sing, even who would join Bad Bunny in the performance. And while a lot of people thinks this looks like gambling, it's actually regulated by the CFTC, an agency created in the 1970s to regulate derivatives. On this episode, we speak with new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who was nominated by President Trump and took his position in December. We talk to him about his philosophy, and why it is that these new bets are regulated as financial instruments, rather than gambling products. We talk about the tension that emerges when 18-year-olds can place bets on sports via prediction markets, even though in many states have laws on sports gambling, either banning it outright, or requiring participants to be at least 21. We also talk about crypto regulation, and whether perpetual futures -- which have exploded in the crypto space -- could soon be coming to traditional markets. Read more: Jump Trading Poised to Gain Stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket Gambling Stocks Sag as Prediction Markets Steal Super Bowl Bets Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ricardo Hausmann is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and the director of Harvard's Growth Lab. We've talked to him multiple times in the past about the necessary preconditions for economies to grow and thrive. But in addition to his academic work, Hausmann was previously a policymaker in Venezuela, including a stint at the country's central bank prior to the election of Hugo Chavez. In this conversation, we talk about how Venezuela went from being the largest oil exporter in the world (even larger than Saudi Arabia for a time) to becoming the ultimate economic basket case. We also talk about the huge challenge the country will face in reinvigorating its economy, and why he believes that will be impossible as long as the remnants of the Maduro government remain in charge.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In less than three years, the amount of tokenized real-world assets has grown eightfold, to more than $30 billion across equities, fixed income, private assets, real estate and more. And that’s just the start of the tokenization revolution, experts predict, because of four main drivers:  Increased liquidity for illiquid assets, broader investor access, operational efficiency, and global distribution and interoperability. This episode is sponsored by Coinbase. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week has been a pretty wild one in markets. Some of the most popular trades of recent years — like going long software, crypto, or gold — suddenly collapsed. Of course, there are plenty of things you can point to as the proximate cause of the selloff. AI is now an existential threat to SaaS. Bitcoin has seen some unflattering headlines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair stalled the debasement trade. But the way the market functions has also changed enormously, arguably leading to faster and more violent moves. On this episode, we catch up with Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura, who explains just how much market mechanics have shifted, and talks about the flows and positioning he's seeing right now. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve obviously has big implications for markets. But it also comes with some interesting sociological questions too. What role does the Fed chair actually play in setting monetary policy? How do they communicate -- and influence -- members of the Fed board? How do they communicate to markets? What happens when someone who's been advocating major regime change at the central bank is now running it? And how do they balance independence with politics? In this episode, we speak with Richard Clarida, former Fed vice-chair and now global economic advisor to Pimco. We talk about what a Fed chair actually does and what we know about Warsh's policy stances so far, as well as why Clarida thinks there may be more volatility in the bond market as a result. Read more:Bonds Rally as Job-Market Angst Backs Fed Rate-Cut OutlookBessent Declines to Draw Line on Removing Fed Member for Policy Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China's dominance of the rare earths market is well known. This not only creates potential vulnerabilities for companies, should access to those rare earths ever get cut off, it also gives China significant leverage in trade negotiations right now. Of course, the issue is not that China is naturally endowed with more of these materials, but rather that, over the decades, it's built up an industrial ecosystem to mine and process them. So, is there any prospect of the US entering the arena in a way that's actually competitive? Our guest says yes. Heidi Crebo-Rediker is a senior fellow in the Center for Geoeconomics Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Earlier in her career, she was the US State Department's first chief economist. For the CFR, Heidi has undertaken an extensive study of the US position with respect to rare earths and developed a broad set of suggestions for how the US can actually compete. She discusses the resources we have right now, and the technologies and policies that could make the US competitive in this arena. Read the report here: https://www.cfr.org/report/leapfrogging-chinas-critical-minerals-dominance/ Read more:Why China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Is So Hard to BreakEU to Offer US Critical Minerals Partnership to Check China Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the 90s, there was a lot of talk about how the Internet would be a liberalizing force in the world. Bill Clinton famously predicted that it would be impossible for China to lock down the Internet, and that this would have profound effects on domestic politics. Of course that didn't come true -- China has done a remarkable job of controlling what gets behind the firewall. But then furthermore, the Internet hasn't had the liberalizing effects in the US either. On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Yi-Ling Liu, the author of the fascinating new book The Wall Dancers: Searching for Freedom and Connection on the Chinese Internet. The book traces the rise of the Chinese Internet, and how its users navigate the "dance" between freedom and censorship. She talks about the early visions for the Internet in China, and how over time it became a hotbed of nationalism. We discuss what's similar and different, and also what happens when users in both countries are given the opportunity to easily make contact withe each other on social media. Read more: China AI Hardware Firms Trump Internet Giants in Growth Outlook Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Utilities analysts are having a moment as the energy sector gets a boost from AI. With an extra 94 gigawatts forecast to be needed by 2030 to power all these new data centers, energy investment has become a hot play as investors take a "picks and shovels" approach. But one long-time analyst says that — from a utilities perspective — we're already set to overbuild capacity by twice as much as is needed. On this episode, Andy DeVries, co-head of investment grade credit and head of utilities and power at CreditSights, talks to us about the math behind his infrastructure overbuild analysis, who has been making money (so far) from the data center boom, and what we already see playing out in the credit markets. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trump has announced that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is going to be his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell. The responses to the news are split among some interesting lines. People like Neil Dutta have been highly critical, while at the same time, the pick has earned praise from Jason Furman, who was the Chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. So who is Kevin Warsh? And why is this pick particularly controversial? On this episode, we talk with Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, who walks us through Warsh's history of commenting on and executing monetary policy. He argues that in addition to having gotten some big calls wrong (particularly in the years surrounding the GFC), Warsh has a history of aligning his policy views with partisan consideration. We also talk about the challenges Warsh will have establishing credibility within the FOMC, as well as challenges that may arise the next time the Fed has to step in during a period of crisis. Read more:Fed’s Musalem Says It Would Be ‘Unadvisable’ to Lower RatesCarney, Macklem Congratulate Warsh on Federal Reserve Nomination Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The big story this year is the surge in metals. And it's really all metals. The ultimate industrial metal, copper, has been on a massive tear, but so has gold, which has very few industrial uses. And then, of course, silver has seen a blistering rally, in part due to massive buying in China. On this episode, we bring back the man who saw this coming years ago, Carlyle partner Jeff Currie. Prior to joining Carlyle, Currie was a top commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs, and has been calling for the emergence of a brand new supercycle for years now. In this episode, he explains the drivers of this supercycle, and why he thinks we're in the very early days of what will be a multi-year run. Read more: Gold Retreats in Sudden Selloff After Breaking Through $5,500 China’s Metals Mania Sends Copper Soaring Past $14,500 a Ton Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration says it wants to kick start private investment in Venezuela now that it's captured Maduro. And Ukraine is eventually going to need a massive rebuild. But what is it like for a big multinational to actually operate in these types of places? In this episode, we speak with Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen, the cofounders of agricultural consultancy AgrisAcademy and former long-time Cargill employees. Jeff previously ran Cargill's Venezuelan business and Mike was the company's first employee in another geopolitical hotspot: Ukraine. We talk about the challenges they faced in these two locations, including dollar shortages, corruption, and security threats, and their sometimes creative solutions to them.Read more:Venezuela Leader Pressed From All Sides Over Oil Industry PlansUkraine Says It Attacked Small Oil Refinery in Southern Russia Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the mega-themes of the economy is that the big keep getting bigger. You see it in technology, where the megacap software companies are outperforming their smaller peers. And you see it in finance, where the world's biggest banks keep growing their share within the industry. Across multiple fields, there are clear advantages to size and scale that keep accruing. But what does it take to get to the very top, and what are the real advantages to size and scale? PNC Financial is one of the biggest banks in the country, though not quite as big as names like JPMorgan or Bank of America. So what does it take to grow in such a mature industry? And what kind of advantages accrue to the large players? On this episode, we talk to CEO Bill Demchak in a wide ranging conversation about the state of the industry. He explains why they're still building physical bank branches, why it's not a good time to make acquisitions, and how one bank stands out from another. We also talk about the changing regulatory environment, and what the firm is seeing right now in terms of useful applications of generative AI.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We talk all the time about private credit. And we increasingly talk about it from the perspective of the AI buildout, and how all of these datacenters are being financed. But why did the space get so big in the first place, and what does its history indicate for the future of the asset class? On this episode, we speak with Michael Zawadzki, the Global CIO for Blackstone Credit and Insurance. Michael’s been with the firm since 2006, and built its private credit from the ground up. He talks about what it took to succeed in the space, the advantages that accrue to large players, and why private credit has played such an important role in financing AI infrastructure. Read more:Private Credit Firms Push New Funds in Bid to Tap Retiree MoneyBlackRock’s HPS Makes Its First Asia Investment After Merger Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this week, we saw something unusual happen in markets. The S&P 500 fell 2%, US Treasury yields rose, and the dollar simultaneously declined. This trifecta of market moves has rekindled talk of the "Sell America" trade as investors worry about the Trump administrations threats to take over Greenland. At the same time, Japanese bonds sold off after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election. So, how concerned should investors be about these latest developments? Is the "Sell America" trade really back? Or are we seeing a global rise in long bond yields? In this episode, we talk with Pimco CEO Emmanuel Roman about how he’s reading the moves. We also discuss Pimco's investment in data center debt, how the company is using AI internally, and why he doesn't 'get' gold. Read more: Why Investors Are Worried About Japan’s Bond Market How Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Is Fueling Record Prices Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the AI industry, there's always a hot new thing. First it was ChatGPT. Then it was the image generators. There was the DeepSeek moment. In the latter half of last year, everyone was excited about how good Google's Gemini was. In January 2026, the new hot thing everyone is talking about is Claude Code. But of course, the AI models have been able to generate lines of code for a long time now. So what is it about Claude Code that has people so excited? Why is it that people are asking: "Is this AGI?" On this episode, we speak with Noah Brier, the co-founder of Alpehic, a consultancy firm that helps large organizations implement AI technology. Noah has been using the Large Language Models for longer than just about anyone, since even before ChatGPT existed. He explains to us the evolution of AI-assisted coding, what Claude Code actually is, and why it is that traditional software firms have been getting destroyed in the stock market lately. Read more: Meta Begins Job Cuts as It Shifts From Metaverse to AI Devices AI Coding Startup Replit Nears Funding at $9 Billion Valuation Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the extraordinary elements of the civil unrest taking place in Iran is that it's almost impossible to know what's going on. There's a virtually complete news blackout, in part because of the government shutting down the internet. What this means in practice right now is that someone on the outside can't even know for sure whether the Iranian stock market has been trading lately, or whether it's been halted. And then of course there are bigger questions about the scale of the civil unrest and the government's response to it. On this episode of Lots More, we check in with recurring guest Maciej Wojtal, the founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, one of the few international firms to have direct exposure to Iranian stocks. We talk about what he's been able to ascertain about the protests, why they're taking place, Iran's ongoing financial crisis, and why this round of civil unrest is different from before.READ MORE: How Iran Sanctions and a Currency Crash Triggered Mass ProtestsSubscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One thing we can all agree on is that demand for energy, and in particular electricity, is growing by leaps and bounds. But past that, there is going to be a debate about who is best positioned, and who will really make money from this trend. Will it be companies digging up raw commodities? Will it be equipment companies? Will it be pipelines? Will it be utilities? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Tyler Rosenlicht, a Senior Vice President Cohen & Steers. He is a portfolio manager for Global Listed Infrastructure and the firm's head of Natural Resource Equities. We talk about the general ideas behind infrastructure investing, how it works, how it's changed, and how he thinks about the ongoing boom in energy demand. Read more: JPMorgan, Brookfield See Deals Revival for Clean Energy Assets Mideast Energy Fund Plans PE Push to Drive Wave of Deals Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Even before Trump's victory in 2024, it was becoming clear that the Fed would come under political pressure like never before. The first year of the new administration bore that out. Not only had Fed Chairman Jerome Powell come under tremendous pressure over interest rate policy and the cost of office renovations, Trump has tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Cook case will soon be argued in front of the Supreme Court, but now we have another earthquake. On Sunday night, the news broke that Powell had been served with a subpoena from the DOJ, raising the potential for criminal charges. Powell himself, who has assiduously tried to avoid the controversy, blasted the move as a form of revenge for the administration's displeasure with his interest rate policy. So where does this leave us now? On this episode, we speak with Lev Menand, a professor at Columbia Law School at the author of the Fed Unbound. He explains where things sit not with Fed independence, and why the DOJ's role here takes the fight to a whole new level. Read more:Dollar Drops Most in Three Weeks as Fed Gets Subpoenas‘Sell America’ Trade Is Revived by Trump’s Latest Fed Attack Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For a long time, you could make plenty of money and sleep easy at night with a simple 60/40 portfolio. You put 60% of your money in stocks and 40% in Treasuries. The stocks generally went up. The Treasuries cushioned you during times of volatility and provided income. Then we got the worst inflation in 40 years, and the Treasury part of those portfolios got obliterated. So does it still work? And if not, how should an investor think about their own personal allocations to various asset classes. On this episode, we speak with Cullen Roche, the founder and CIO of Discipline Funds and the author of the new book, Your Perfect Portfolio: The ultimate guide to using the world's most powerful investing strategies. His book goes through a number of different ideas in portfolio construction, talking about their pluses and minuses, as well as their history. In this conversation, he explains his general philosophy and how one should think about evaluating a person's circumstances to optimally design an investment portfolio.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In some sense, the arrest of Maduro is nothing unusual. For over 200 years, the US viewed the entirety of the Western hemisphere as its legitimate domain for intervention. And of course, there's a long history of the US getting involved with Latin America specifically. But what is the Monroe Doctrine? And how does Trump's foreign policy fit into it. On this episode, we speak with Greg Grandin, a professor of history at Yale and author of America, América. Greg has extensively researched American activity in Latin America across his career. He explains the historical patterns of when America asserts its dominance in the region, and how that fits into other American policy priorities both abroad and at home. Read more:Post-Maduro 124% Rally Stuns Venezuela’s Battered Stock ExchangeTrump’s Team Orders Big Oil Into Venezuela: ‘Do It for Our Country’ Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are a bunch of questions right now about the future of Venezuela, and one of the big ones is what's going to happen to its circa $170 billion pile of debt. Some investors have been snapping up defaulted Venezuelan bonds, betting that a future restructuring could hand them a hefty payout. Others argue that the Venezuelan people shouldn't be saddled with debt issued by an authoritarian regime. In this episode, we speak with the legendary lawyer Lee Buchheit. Lee has worked on more than two dozen sovereign debt restructurings over the course of a 40-year career, including those of Iraq and Greece. He explains how a Venezuelan debt workout might unfold and the unique challenges that arise when trying to restructure the obligations of a sovereign nation. Read more: Santander, BBVA and Deutsche Lead $3 Billion Repo for Argentina Donation From Century-Old Fund Cuts UK Debt by £607 Million Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Venezuela is sitting on, by some measures, the biggest oil reserves in the world. And yet, in the immediate wake of Maduro's capture by US forces, the actual price of oil has moved very little. So what gives? And what are the stakes for the industry? On this episode, we speak with Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group. Greg has the perfect background for this conversation, because in addition to closely monitoring both the oil industry and the global geopolitical environment, he's a trained historian. So we talk about the long history of the Venezuelan oil industry, starting in its boom years, and then its ultimate decline amid nationalization, corruption, sanctions, and blockades. He explains to us the potential huge costs of restarting production, the actual logic behind the arrest, as well as potential fallout across Latin America, and with Venezuela's friends, such as Iran, China, and Cuba. Read more:Trump Says Venezuela to Send US Up to 50 Million Barrels of OilSlumping Mideast Oil Market Adds to Signs of Global Weakness Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Every year, regional Federal Reserve banks host some of the most substantive — and under-the-radar — events in the central banking world: research conferences. Behind the formal papers and dense macro models, this is where much of the Fed’s intellectual groundwork for monetary policy first starts to take shape. On this episode, we take you inside the Boston Fed's 69th annual Economic Conference to hear what the economists are actually debating, how they choose the questions that matter most, and what happens when the evidence — or egos — clash. Along the way, we talk to Fed researchers, outside academics, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins about how this kind of work influences policy in the real world. Watch all the presentations at the Boston Fed's website Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When the Odd Lots team was down in Washington DC earlier this year, we had a phenomenal meal at a restaurant called Butterworth's. As it turns out, the restaurant is one of the hottest hangouts for the MAGA crowd, with Steve Bannon and others frequently seen in its dining room. Of course, restaurants are difficult businesses in normal conditions, but in DC, you have the added factor that political cycles are changing all the time, and different bars and restaurants become associated with specific parties who go in and out of power. On this episode, we speak with Bart Hutchins, the chef-owner at the restaurant. We talk about everything from sourcing ingredients from small Amish farms, to acquiring beef tallow, and dining room logistics. We also talk about food costs, labor availability, and how the intense worker shortages and price inflation of the post-2020 period still affects how the restaurant is run today. Read more:A Former Soho House Executive Is Changing London’s Restaurant SceneDoorDash Tests AI Social App to Help Users Find Restaurants Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's that time of the year. On this episode, Tracy and Joe answer questions from listeners that were submitted via voice note. We talk about everything from Chinese history to whales to whether or not we ever hold an episode without publishing it. Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

2025 was an extraordinary year, with the real economy defying recession worries and equity markets putting up monster returns. So can this be repeated again in 2026? On this episode, we speak with two of the top minds at Goldman Sachs. Jan Hatzius is the bank's chief economist and head of research and Ben Snider is its chief US equity strategist. We review what really happened in 2025, talking about the impact of both AI and the tariffs, as well as how these factors will impact the real economy and stocks next year. Read more:Larry Ellison, Not Elon Musk, Was The Tech Titan Who Defined 2025Why 2026 Is Poised to Be Another Rocky Year for Global Trade Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hello Odd Lots listeners! As we take a break for the holidays we'd like to take a moment and bring you an episode by one of our sister shows here at Bloomberg Podcasts, Merryn Talks Money.  In this special two-part series, John Stepek and Merryn Somerset Webb tell the extraordinary story of John Law: a fugitive Scots gambler who became the most powerful financier in France and helped invent the modern monetary system. From murder and exile to paper money, banking revolutions and spectacular collapse, Law’s life reveals why today’s financial system works the way it does—and why it sometimes blows up. It’s history, scandal and monetary theory rolled into one irresistible tale. We used a range of sources for this podcast but two key books to read if you'd like to find out more are:John Law: A Scottish Adventurer of the Eighteenth Century (2018), by James BuchanJohn Law: Economic Theorist and Policy-Maker (1997), by Antoin MurphyLike this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Merryn Talks Money podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcastsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you're a high-skilled tech worker, then potentially huge fortunes await you working for a startup or one of our booming AI giants. But the government needs these types of workers too. And the government is not set up to pay commensurate salaries with the private sector -- particularly for these types of roles. This challenge has long been understood, and there have been numerous efforts over the years to infuse the government with high-tech talent. Scott Kupor is the director of the US Office of Personnel Management, which manages and coordinates recruiting of new government employees across the federal workforce. Scott was also previously one of the top partners at the famed VC firm Andreessen Horowitz. So he has a mind for bringing the recruiting practices of the tech world into DC. But of course, that's easier said than done. On this episode, we talk about how federal hiring works and doesn't work, and also his new endeavor called the US Tech Force, which aims to bring in top talent for a two-year stint of solving problems across the bureaus. We also talk about the DOGE initiative, and how he thinks about recruiting top talent at a time when the administration has been aggressive about shrinking the size of the overall federal workforce.Read More: Federal Workforce’s Toll After a Year of DOGE and Trump: 317,000USDA Lost a Third of DC Staff Even Before Relocation Effort Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By and large, American households are in a healthy economic position. Yes, unemployment has been rising, but it's still at fairly low levels. Consumer spending has held up well despite terrible sentiment. And many households are sitting on huge stock market gains and have a big home equity cushion. And yet, there are signs of trouble. Most notably, auto loan delinquencies have been surging to their highest level in history. It's the same with student loans, where delinquencies are far higher than normal. So what's going on? On this episode, we speak with Rikard Bandebo, the chief economist at VantageScore, which offers a consumer credit score that's different from the traditional FICO measures. He explains how surging prices, rising interests, and -- crucially -- rising insurance costs have created an auto squeeze. We also discuss what this means for broader consumer health and whether this auto delinquency phenomenon signals something broader about consumer stress. Read more:Rise of the ‘Zombie’ LoansFirst Brands Asks Lenders for Fresh Cash of Up to $800 Million Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You probably already know someone doing peptides — the amino acids that form the basis of popular new drug treatments like Ozempic and Wegovy. Today there are peptides meant to help with everything from weight loss, to cellular regeneration, to improved eye contact while talking. In San Francisco, there are even organized “peptide raves.” Yet most of these underground peptides haven’t been approved by regulators for human use in the US. So where are they coming from? And how do they get here? On this episode, we speak with two guests who have seen this growing subculture up close, Jasmine Sun, an independent writer covering AI and San Francisco culture, as well as Zak David, managing partner of Pirsek Technologies, which runs a peptide supplier, Peptide Partners. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The politics of AI are already exploding. Whether we're talking about data centers, electricity prices, labor displacement, water consumption, competition with China, or users of chatbots becoming psychotically obsessed, AI is already a major topic in elections. And since there's so much money at stake, the industry is already spinning up super PACs and lobbying arms. Last month, it was reported that a new $100 million AI-industry super PAC called Leading the Future would be directly targeting Alex Bores, a Democrat who is running for his party's nomination for New York's 12th congressional district. Why target Bores? Well, as an New York assemblymember, he has led the push for the regulation of AI at the state level. The industry, of course, views state-level regulation as an existential threat to their business. So on this episode we speak with Alex about how he views AI and the optimal approach to regulation. Alex also has a tech background, and so we talk about the technology more broadly, as well as other issues in contemporary politics.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When we think about America’s economic rise, we usually point to agriculture or the industrial revolution. But in the early days of colonization, one of the biggest economic drivers wasn’t crops or factories — it was animal products. Deerskins were a booming trade that pushed hunters into new frontiers. In the early 1800s, beaver pelts became a fashion craze. And of course, later that century, we nearly hunted buffalo to extinction in another frenzy of resource extraction. On this episode, we talk to Steven Rinella, author and founder of MeatEater, about this overlooked chapter in US economic history, plus how the hunting economy functions today. Read more:USDA Lowers Cattle Price Outlook After Tyson Beef Plant ClosureRFK Jr. Eyes Single National Standard on Food Labeling and Safety Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Most people think of venture capital as funding software startups or, these days, some new AI tool. But VC also plays a major role in developing new medicines and treatments. That’s the world of D.A. Wallach — though he didn’t start there. Before becoming a biotech investor, Wallach was the lead singer of the indie rock band Chester French. So how did he make the leap from music to venture capital? How does he spot promising biotech opportunities? What does it actually take to bring a new drug to market? And how does biotech investing differ from traditional VC? We talk to the co-founder of Time BioVentures about all of this — plus we get his thoughts on AI’s impact on music and a special performance.Have a question for Joe and Tracy?  Now's your chance to be the perfect guest  - record a voice memo with your name, age, location and question and email to [email protected] for a chance to be included in the holiday AMA episode.Read More:Big Pharma’s Patent Cliff Puts China Front and CenterNovartis Strikes Deal With UK Biotech for Up To $1.7 BillionJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Data centers are weird things. They're partly real estate assets. They're partly extremely advanced technological products. And they have to find a way to consume a tremendous amount of electricity from the grid -- or they increasingly have their own power plants on site. And beyond that, they've become extremely controversial, with more and more communities pushing back on their development. So how do you get all your ducks in a row when a new project is proposed? Who provides the financing at which stage of the agreement? What are the legal complications that arise? On this episode, we speak with Travis Wofford, a partner at the law firm Baker Botts, who works in the firm's AI practice. We discuss all the intricacies of these projects, the challenges that arise, and how things have changed in this space just since the beginning of the year. Read more:Oracle Earnings May Not Be Enough to Assuage Debt, AI Deal FearsNextEra Shares Fall Amid Push to Move Into Data Centers and Gas Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the years since the financial crisis, bond investors didn't get much return for taking on risk. With low interest rates and little sign of inflation, investors had to accept lower-quality assets to get any semblance of yield. Now that's changing according to Dan Ivascyn, the chief investment officer of Pimco, one of the biggest bond fund managers around. In this special 10-year anniversary episode, Dan reflects on longer-term trends in the bond market, as well as more immediate issues like independence at the Federal Reserve, concerns around data center financing, and worries of "dangerous" and inflated credit ratings. Read more:French Budget Endgame Means Stress Test for Stocks and BondsPinebridge Sees Emerging-Markets Rally Tilting Toward Bonds Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Excel. If you work in corporate America, that word either inspires laser-focused productivity or pure dread. Over the last 40 years, the spreadsheet software has become synonymous with the best — and worst — of late-stage capitalism. It’s seeped into popular culture and, along the way, made Microsoft one of the world’s most valuable companies.But in a world of AI and new competition where Excel=Sum(39+1), can it stay on top? From the Big Take podcast, Bloomberg’s Dina Bass and Businessweek’s Max Chafkin join host Sarah Holder to track the rise and challenges ahead for one of the most ubiquitous programs around.Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Big Take podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcastsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Max Levchin probably knows as much about online payments as anyone. He was part of the original "PayPal mafia" before going on to become co-founder and CEO of Affirm, the $22 billion player in the Buy Now, Pay Later industry that's hoping to disrupt the incumbent credit card companies. While BNPL is booming, there is still a lot of confusion about how it works, how it makes money, and how transparent its activities are. On this episode, we speak with Max about why he started his company, and why he believes that BNPL offers a superior product to traditional forms of payment and credit. We also discuss the current state of the economy, AI, and what he sees as the role of crypto in payments.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There have been some wobbles in credit markets lately. It hasn't been too dramatic, but we've had some blowups, leading Jamie Dimon to speculate about the presence of other "cockroaches" lurking in the industry. But what do we actually know about the quality and practices of credit underwriting right now? Dan Wertman is the co-founder and CEO of Noetica, a startup that uses AI to scan deal documents and measure linguistic and term trends over time. Dan talks to us about what he's been seeing in the language of deal documents, and why there are reasons to think that more blowups are lurking around the corner. He also talks to us about how credit agreements are structured in the AI space, and how we should understand some of these huge data center financing deals we've seen lately. Read more:Oracle Credit Fear Gauge Hits Highest Since 2009 on AI Bubble FearsSecretive $3 Trillion Fund Giant Makes Flashy Move Into Private Assets Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's an incredible amount of focus on the grid this days. That's notable because for a long time, the grid was hardly of any interest. For years, load growth was flat. It was a sleepy market. And in fact, because it was sleepy, regulators and politicians and private companies started focusing on phasing out the dirtier parts of energy production. Now things have flipped. Prices are on the rise. Load growth is on the rise. And everyone's tying to figure out how we're going to attach all of these AI datacenters to the grid. On this episode, we speak with Travis Kavulla, the vice president of regulatory affairs at NRG. Prior to his current role, Travis served for eight years on Montana's Public Service Commission, and therefore has a good feel for what drives prices in both regulated and competitive electricity markets. He explains the factors that have pushed electricity costs up, particularly since the pandemic, and the calculations that have to be made to plan for the future burdens that will be placed on the grid. Read more:Americans Paying Record Electricity Prices as Gas Costs ClimbAs Federal Support Withers, California Invests in Cheap Heat Pumps Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some people pay off their credit cards at the end of each month. They use the cards as a payment method and collect points and rewards, and never have to pay any interest. For other users, interest can be sky high — way higher than what would be expected simply based on a user's credit or default risk. Why is this? And how do credit card companies get away with charging interest at these levels? On this episode, we speak with Itamar Drechsler, a finance professor at Wharton, who recently co-authored a piece titled Why Are Credit Card Rates so High? Drechsler walks us through the costs of running a credit card operation and explains what borrowers are really paying for. Read more: US Consumer Confidence Falls by Most Since April on Economy Gambling, Prediction Markets Create New Credit Risks, BofA Warns Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US and China are in a "Thucydides Trap," whereby the risk of war is heightened when an established power is threatened by a rapidly rising power. This is the framework that's been popularized by Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University. Professor Allison has been writing about China and the US-China relationship for decades. He's been focused on the growing odds of a violent conflict between the two powers. On this episode, he explains his work and the conditions that drive greater risk of armed conflict. He also tells us what both sides get wrong about each other, and what it will take to reduce the odds of military involvement.More: Henry Wang on China's Role in the New Emerging World Order Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You're not imagining it. This really is a moment of tremendous historical change. Various forces are all aligned right now and reshaping how the world operates. That's the view of Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Capital, the world's biggest hedge fund. While Odd Lots has been around for 10 years, Dalio ran Bridgewater for an extraordinary five decades, so he's the perfect person to get a big picture understanding of what's going on. He talks about how a mix of rising wealth inequality, the AI boom, a burgeoning national debt, and more, are changing the world. We also talk about lessons he learned from running Bridgewater, the importance of meditation, as well as his long-term skepticism about the pod shop hedge fund model. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Here’s a preview of another podcast we enjoy, Risky Business with Nate Silver and MariaKonnikova. Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. Hosted byjournalist and psychologist Maria Konnikova and data analyst and election forecaster NateSilver, who both happen to be accomplished high-stakes poker players, the show explores howwe navigate uncertainty in politics, poker, and everyday life. From unpacking AI hype to divingdeep into election forecasting to discussing trust on reality TV, they break down the odds behindthe headlines. Because every choice is a bet. New episodes drop on Wednesdays and Fridays—listen to Risky Business wherever you get podcasts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The country's cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size in decades and beef prices have been soaring this year, with hamburgers and steaks becoming the latest flashpoints in the political debate over higher food prices. In this episode, we untangle the roots of declining domestic beef supply — from drought and surging feed costs to the lasting impact of consolidation in the meatpacking industry. We speak with Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, a trade association for independent cattle ranchers, about the forces shrinking America's cattle industry and what can be done about it. (Editor's Note: This episode was recorded Oct. 30)Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In early November, it looked like almost a sure thing that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. Since then, the odds have come in dramatically, as a number of FOMC members have been talking about persistent inflationary pressures. One such voice has been Susan Collins, the president of the Boston Fed. On this episode, she explains her thinking as to why, right now, she's more concerned about inflation than she is about the labor market, and she tells us what she'd like to see before supporting another rate cut. Today's episode coincides with the first day of the Boston Fed's annual economic research conference, which will be streaming live on the bank's website. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In many respects, AI technology is already mind-blowing, and can perform many tasks far better than the average person. And yet by and large, its impact has been hard to detect. We haven't seen some huge labor displacement, for example. There's nothing dramatic yet happening in the productivity data. So when will the impact really start to be felt? On this episode, we speak with Tyler Cowen, a professor at George Mason University and the co-author of the famed econ blog Marginal Revolution. He's also the host of the Conversations with Tyler podcast. We talk about when we'll really start feeling AIs impact, as well as other topics, like food, music, and the general state of discourse. Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI wasn't much of a topic in the 2024 election. But it will almost certainly be big in 2028, and probably even the 2026 midterms. There are concerns about all the money being spent and whether a federal backstop or bailout will be necessary one day. There are the concerns about energy use and electricity prices. There are concerns about labor displacement. And there are concerns about whether we can trust AI outputs. Already we see numerous politicians lining up against AI in one way or another. On this episode, we speak with Saagar Enjeti, the co-host of the Breaking Points podcast to discuss how this issue is already blowing up, and how the tech industry may soon find itself friendless in DC. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks are overpriced. Bonds are overpriced. And private assets are a powder keg. This is the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital. As part of our 10-year anniversary celebration of the Odd Lots podcast, we've been talking to some big names in markets and economics to get a sense of how they see the world and what's changed in recent years. One major change, obviously, is the end of ZIRP. And while Treasuries have rallied modestly this year, Gundlach sees mounting pressure on government balance sheets pushing yields higher going into the future. We also talk about gold, the greater opportunities for a US-based investor when looking internationally, and why everyone should be holding more cash in their portfolios.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he argues that when the bubble first forms, the correct move historically is to buy into it and then just accept that you'll never nail the top perfectly. On this episode, we talk about his overall approach as well as the signs of when the bubble has come to an end. We also talk about current parallels to the dotcom bubble, why gold has had such a monster year, and the signs from the Treasury market that make the US look increasingly like an emerging market. Read more:Stock Bounce Wanes on Fed Angst as Bitcoin Plunges: Markets WrapGold ‘Trading Like a Meme Stock’ Sets Up Miners as Levered Bet Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In recent weeks, there's been renewed anxiety about the sustainability of the AI boom. This is partly due to comments from OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar about a possible role for a government backstop in the AI infrastructure build out. We've also seen the stock market wobble, with many major tech names hit hard. But even with all these concerns, we continue to see new announcements all the time. Just this week, Anthropic said it would spend $50 billion on data center development in the US. So are we actually in a bubble? Our guest on this episode believes we are -- and not just any bubble. According to Paul Kedrosky, a longtime VC currently at SK Ventures, the AI bubble is like every previous bubble rolled into one. There's the real estate element. There's the tech element. And, increasingly, there are exotic financing structures being put in place to fund it all. And then on top of that, there's talk of government bailouts and backstops. In this episode, we walk through some of the math that would be required to justify all this spending, and how the seemingly existential stakes of 'winning the AI race' is causing an unsustainable investment binge. Read more:AI Startup Cursor Raises Funds at $29.3 Billion ValuationPoint72’s Drossos Sees AI Boom Driving Gains in Asian Currencies Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Odd Lots podcast has been around for 10 years. Unfortunately, markets have gotten less rational over the same time frame. At least this is the contention of Cliff Asness, the co-founder and CEO of AQR Capital Management, a quantitative investing firm that's been around for nearly three decades. Asness' approach to investing is rooted in academic theory, having studied under the legendary Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago. In the world of social media and meme stocks, it's tough out there for the academically minded. And that's forced Cliff to adjust his approach over time. On this episode, we talk about the history of quantitative investing, market efficiency, and the emergence of AI/ML in his process. We also talk about the reality of investing other people's money, and the challenge of sticking with one's convictions at a time when temporary forces are working against you. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI has made a lot of people fabulously wealthy. But sorry, it's probably not going to be the thing that makes you rich. And if history is any guide, we don't even know who the real AI winners are going to be. That's the thesis from longtime Venture Capitalist (now retired) Jerry Neumann. Earlier this year, Neumann published an article, "AI Will Not Make You Rich," putting the AI boom in the context of previous technological revolutions, such as the shipping container. He points out that a lot of the companies that were early to shipping containers didn't make much money, and that the real winners were the new businesses that emerged later and took advantage of the shipping container to build new business models (think about the likes of Walmart or Target). In this conversation, we talk about why it's so hard to invest in technological revolutions, where we are in the cycle, why he's getting out of VC, and when the big opportunities will eventually emerge. Read more:SoftBank Sells Nvidia Stake for $5.8 Billion to Fund AI BetsAI’s $5 Trillion Cost Needs Every Debt Market, JPMorgan Says Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Land is a weird asset. We need it to be affordable because everyone needs somewhere to live. But for many people, real estate is also their biggest store of wealth — a kind of national piggybank that fuels both personal fortunes and broader economies. Nowhere is that tension sharper than in China, where housing affordability remains a major challenge even as real estate has been a huge driver of wealth for households and companies alike. China's policymakers have now spent years trying to let the air out of China’s property bubble — without causing it to burst completely. In this episode, we speak with Mike Bird, The Economist’s Wall Street editor and author of the new book, The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We talk about how much of China's economic progress has been tied up in real estate, different models of land ownership around the world, and why this particular asset is unlike any other. Read more: New World, Vanke Debt Moves Shake Up China’s Property Sector CapitaLand Is Said to Mull Merging Non-China Assets With Mapletree Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Protein seems to be everywhere these days, with brands from Starbucks to Pepsi jumping on the trend. But the obsession with protein may have started earlier — with a humble dairy product that defied the broader decline in US milk consumption. Fairlife, which uses a specialized filtering process to boost protein and cut sugar and lactose in its milk products, helped spark the modern protein craze that’s unfolded alongside the rise of Ozempic and other GLP-1 drugs. Since Coca-Cola acquired the brand in 2020, Fairlife has become one of the company’s biggest growth drivers. Yet its success also highlights deeper challenges facing the American dairy industry, where per capita milk consumption continues to fall. So how did Fairlife buck the trend? And what does its story reveal about the future of US dairy? On this episode, we speak with Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If the government were open, we'd be getting a jobs report today. But as it is, we're in this blackout of official economic data. That's unfortunate, because the economy is already in a very confusing spot, and so any additional data right now would be very helpful in figuring out where things are heading. In the absence of Non-Farm Payrolls, we talked with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen about the worsening state of the labor market, and why he thinks the Federal Reserve needs to step in before the unemployment rate deteriorates further. We also talk about the role AI is (or isn't) playing in the labor market.Read more: US Companies Announce Most October Job Cuts in Over 20 YearsFed’s Hammack Says Inflation a Bigger Concern Than Labor Market See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The news business isn't a great one these days. At least for a lot of legacy outlets (newspapers, cable networks, print magazines etc.), the Internet has obliterated their business model. And now AI is coming along and there's a risk that it makes conditions even worse, because unlike in the glory days of the search era, the user doesn't even have to click to get what they're looking for. So how does an AI company like Perplexity, which combines search and AI to create a real-time destination for learning about the news, affect industry economics? On this episode, which was recorded live at Lazard's Foursquare conference (an annual gathering for business leaders in sports, media, and entertainment), we speak with Perplexity's Chief Business Officer Dmitry Shevelenko. We talk about the company's relationship with the news business, a new battle against Amazon, and the general economic and finance environment for hot AI startups. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New York City is about to elect a new mayor, and whoever it is will have to address growing challenges like unaffordability, homelessness, and other basic quality-of-life challenges. Very few of these challenges are distinct to NYC. San Francisco, in particular, has also faced this weird tension, where it's incredibly dynamic and wealthy, and also famous for its obvious symptoms of dysfunction. The city is one year into the new Daniel Lurie administration, and many of the quality-of-life statistics have been improving (which is the case in other cities as well). The city is ground zero for the world's AI industry, which is heavily concentrated in SF, rather than the Bay Area writ large. So we spoke with Lurie about his approach to city management, what he's learned in his first year on the job, his vision for improving zoning, and what, if any, advice he'd offer to the next NYC mayor. Read more:Uber to Take on Waymo in San Francisco With Lucid, Nuro RobotaxisTrump Cancels San Francisco Raids After Benioff, Huang Calls Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem as though you can get great stock picks just by going to ChatGPT and asking it to recommend some investments. And yet financial firms of all sorts — including trading firms — say they're increasingly using AI. But are the tools actually being deployed? And how do these tools differ from traditional machine learning or algorithmic approaches to trading, the likes of which have been used by quant firms for decades now. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Iain Dunning, the head of AI research at Hudson River Trading, a major US market maker. We discuss the firm's attempts to use AI not just for more efficient trading, but also to make short-term predictions about price, which further gives its traders an edge. Dunning walks us through his work, his views on the main constraints facing the space (labor, power, chips, etc.) and how his work is both different and similar to what's happening at the major cutting edge research labs like ChatGPT. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You hear a lot about AI safety, and this idea that sufficiently advanced AI could pose some kind of threat to humans. So people are always talking about and researching "alignment" to ensure that new AI models comport with human needs and values. But what about humans' collective treatment of AI? A small but growing number of researchers talk about AI models potentially being sentient. Perhaps they are "moral patients." Perhaps they feel some kind of equivalent of pleasure and pain -- all of which, if so, raises questions about how we use AI. They argue that one day we'll be talking about AI welfare the way we talk about animal rights, or humane versions of animal husbandry. On this episode we speak with Larissa Schiavo of Eleos AI. Eleos is an an organization that says it's "preparing for AI sentience and welfare." In this conversation we discuss the work being done in the field, why some people think it's an important area for research, whether it's in tension with AI safety, and how our use and development of AI might change in a world where models' welfare were to be seen as an important consideration. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone has an opinion on why housing is so expensive in America -- and to be fair, there are probably a lot of reasons for it. But one simple factor is that homes are expensive to build. Unlike many other physical objects, they haven't gotten cheaper over time. So why is this? And why haven't we found a way to bring down the cost curve by building modular housing in factories or on assembly lines? On this episode, we speak with Brian Potter the author of the new book The Origins of Efficiency. Potter also worked at a modular homes startup that failed, and is also the author of the excellent Construction Physics newsletter. So we talk about what he's learned about housing, as well as broader questions about how operational efficiency is achieved over time across a range of industries. Read more:Austin, Salt Lake City Top Global List of Most Affordable CitiesAffordable Housing Left Vulnerable After Trump Fires Building Inspectors Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you go out to eat at a restaurant, whether it's a fast food chain or a Michelin-starred bistro, there's a good chance the ingredients on your plate came from the same source. Sysco is the dominant foodservice distributor in the US, using its massive logistics network to quietly supply the food that goes into meals in thousands of restaurants across the US. Sysco's scale and product standardization have helped define what American dining tastes like -- sometimes literally. But critics say its power has gone too far, leaving chefs and diners with fewer choices and blander outcomes. In this episode, we talk with Austin Frerick, author of Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry, about how Sysco became the middleman shaping America's menus.   Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A few years ago, governments and corporations were brimming with optimism about the prospect of getting to net-zero in the efforts against climate change. Today, you hear a lot less about that. And while there's renewables getting added to the mix all the time, one energy source that's really booming is natural gas. And coal is booming too. So what happened? And is there any prospect of the world getting back on track? On this episode, we speak with acclaimed energy historian Daniel Yergin, current Vice Chairman of S&P Global. He's also, of course, the author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning book The Prize, as well as, more recently, The New Map. We talk about all of the factors that changed the energy picture in recent years and the energy priorities of nations right now. Read more: Russia’s Crude Shipments Climb Close to a Post-Invasion High Trump to Buy 1 Million Barrels to Help Refill Oil Reserve Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some economists expected that the dollar would strengthen when the tariffs were imposed. Instead, the opposite happened. The dollar fell sharply and it's been a poor performer all year. Concurrently, it's been a great year for a lot of dollar-denominated assets, like stocks. Even US Treasuries have rallied this year. So what's going on? On this episode, we speak with recurring Odd Lots guest Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements. Per his work, the world didn't abandon the US dollar, but it did start hedging exposure to it. We discuss this phenomenon, as well as other risks on the macro landscape.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The 2010s saw economic weakness across Europe's periphery. Countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, and so forth were the sites of so much stress. In the 2020s, however, it's reversed. The periphery is holding up well, but the industrial core is facing stress. Germany, in particular, the old powerhouse of the continent, has been slammed by the surge in electricity costs and competition with China. Other Northern states have felt similar pain. So what is the future for Europe? Can the EU project itself continue to evolve and integrate? On this episode, we speak with Olli Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland and a member of the ECB's Governing Council. We discuss the near and medium-term challenges facing the EU and the prospects for finding a robust growth path in the future. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gold has been surging. Risky assets (with a few minor hiccups) have also been surging. And yet, central bankers (most notably the Fed) are in rate cutting mode. Why is this? And what kind of risks are being conjured up? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, as well as the former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Rajan famously was one of the first to raise alarms prior to the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. We discuss why financial markets are doing what they're doing and whether central bankers are sufficiently attuned to the growing risks. Read more:Gold Holds Drop as Traders Focus on US-China Trade, Credit WoesAI Stocks Are in a Bubble, Most Investors Say in BofA Survey Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Make sense of the world with one essential conversation, every week. Mishal Husain, one of Britain's best interviewers, brings her signature blend of curiosity and tenacity to weekly conversations with world leaders, business titans, and cultural icons, revealing who they really are and how they see the world changing around them.Follow the podcast wherever you listen, so you don't miss an episode.https://link.podtrac.com/iu94w2n4 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this year, we traveled along with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on a trip to Alaska. You may remember the episodes we did with Mary at the time, as well as business and other leaders in the state. But we also had the chance to sit in with Mary while she talked with her contacts on the ground. On this special episode, you'll hear some of those discussions and get a sense of exactly what happens when a regional Fed president goes out and learns from the community. You'll hear from officials at the Port of Anchorage dealing with the new trade landscape, a company that makes steel tubing for the oil industry coming to grips with tariffs, and from managers involved at the airport, to get a sense of how the Alaskan economy works and the distinct pressures they're facing right now.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's nothing new for the US government to use public money to support private American companies. The Biden administration, via CHIPS and the Inflation Reduction Act, was aggressive about using loans and grants to accelerate US industry. But the Trump administration has been engaged in something more novel: taking direct stakes in US companies like Intel and MP. But what is the legal basis for such action? And what are the advantages and disadvantages of direct equity stakes? On this episode, we speak with Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at the Georgetown Institute of International Economic Law. We discuss the structure of these new arrangements, and the advantages and disadvantages for the government to be a minority shareholder in publicly-traded companies. Read more:Intel Debuts New Technology in Make-or-Break Moment for CEO’s Turnaround BidUS Rare Earths Stocks Jump on Bets Government Will Keep Buying Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Argentina is getting bailed out again, with $40 billion of help from the Trump administration. Of course, this is a recurring phenomenon for Argentina, and this time it's happening under the free market-oriented Javier Milei, who has slashed spending to bring down inflation. So why is it in trouble again? And why is this such a recurring feature of the Argentine economy? In this episode, we speak with Greg Makoff, the author of Default: The Landmark Court Battle over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring. In this conversation, Greg explains the domestic political context for why Argentina hasn't been able to establish a sustainable economic footing. We discuss the legacy of Peronism, Milei's efforts to sharply change course, and the challenge of seeing any economic reform project through to completion, given the pain required get into fiscal balance. Read more:Argentine Bonds Jump on News US Lining Up $40 Billion in AidArgentina Says US Treasury Will Continue to Support Peso Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost everyone is talking about us possibly being in a bubble. Regardless of how AI investment ultimately pan out, there is an incredible amount of retail speculative mania in the air. So, how does this environment compare to past periods of exuberance? On this episode, we speak with Andrew Ross Sorkin, the editor of Dealbook, the co-host of CNBC's Squawk Box, and the author of the new book 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History--and How It Shattered a Nation. Sorkin, who previously wrote Too Big to Fail (chronicling the Great Financial Crisis of 2008), went into the archives to discover just how in thrall the American public was to the market on the eve of the great crash. We discuss lessons from the time, similarities, and differences. Read more: Companies Overpaying for AI Add to Bubble Risks, Survey Shows Why Circular AI Deals Among OpenAI, Nvidia, AMD Are Raising Eyebrows Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days, there's a non-stop drumbeat of concern that China and its dominant companies will eat America's economic lunch, so to speak. Of course, this isn't the first time in our history that there were worries about a rising Asian industrial power. In the 1980s and early 1990s, there was a lot of concern about the rise of corporate Japan. And that fear was seen all over movies and pop culture, from Die Hard to the Michael Crichton novel Rising Sun. This time there is one big difference: Chinese dominance doesn't permeate our pop culture in the same way. And furthermore, the US has long had military bases in Japan, so that dimension was quite different, too. To understand this period further, we talk to John Ganz, who writes the Unpopular Front newsletter, and is the author of the recent book, When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, and How America Cracked Up in the Early 1990s. We discuss how this fear came about and disappeared, but also how it still influences American politics to this day.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What changed between 2019 and 2025? Why are interest rates so much higher? Why does it seem virtually unfathomable that the Fed will return to ZIRP anytime soon? Why do investors expect this rate cut cycle to be so shallow? The answer, theoretically, is that the neutral rate of interest has gone up. But what is the neutral rate of interest, and why has it moved? On this episode, we speak with Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics and Tom Orlik, the Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They, along with Bloomberg's Stephanie Flanders, are the editors of a new book titled The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present, and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest, in which they attempt to directly identify what the neutral rate of interest actually is. We discuss the big changes over the last several years, including deglobalization, demographics, and datacenters, that are pushing this number higher.Listen to our sister show Trumponomics: Trump Isn’t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is RisingRead more: Trump’s Contradiction: Demanding Steep Rate Cuts for a ‘Booming’ Economy Fed Set to Drive Global Rate Cuts as Europe Shifts to Pause Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Money has been flowing into the AI space, with billions pouring into GPU clusters, data centers, gas turbines, and the infrastructure needed to train and deploy bigger and bigger models. So what comes next? On this episode, we speak with James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research. We talk to him about his latest field trip to one of OpenAI's new massive Stargate data centers in Abilene, Texas. We also discuss the increasingly complicated financing arrangements that are funding some of these mega projects and the energy needed to power them. Finally, we ask the question which everyone seems to be asking right now: is AI in a bubble? Read more: OpenAI Valuation Reaches $500 Billion, Topping Musk’s SpaceX FOMO Builds as Alibaba Extends $250 Billion AI-Fueled Comeback Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're used to talking about the Federal Reserve changing "benchmark interest rates." But the mechanics of how the central bank actually tightens or loosens policy are a lot more nuanced. For years now, the Fed's been doing this through the federal funds market — where US banks lend and borrow their excess reserves. But that could be changing. Last week, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the fed funds target is outdated, and the central bank should be looking at alternatives. So what would those alternatives actually look like, and why do the intricacies of these short-term funding markets actually matter? We speak with Joe Abate, head of macrostrategy, at SMBC Nikko about this and the broader liquidity picture. Read More: Logan Ushers in New Era of Debate on Fed’s Key Policy Tool  Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CME Group is one of the oldest exchanges around, tracing it's history all the way back to the late 1800s, when it specialized in agricultural commodities. It's best known for things like futures and interest rate swaps that tend to be favored by professional traders. But as retail trading becomes big business, the CME is expanding its footprint in the space, including a recently-announced partnership with sports-betting platform FanDuel. So how does a marketplace that built its reputation on professional hedging and risk management now try to capture the attention of everyday investors? In this episode we speak with Terry Duffy, CME Group chairman and CEO, about the exchange’s push into retail, new competition in the Treasury futures space, and much more.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For over 20 years, people have been talking about prediction markets or event markets are the next big thing. But mostly, with some niche exceptions, they haven't taken off, in part due to regulatory constraints. But now they seem to be booming, and the regulatory environment has gotten much more friendly. On this live episode recorded in Chicago, we speak with Tarek Mansour, the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, one of the prediction market platforms that's booming. One reason it's doing so well is because it's gone big into sports, which of course gets into its own regulatory thicket. In this conversation, we talk about the future of these markets, the prospect for markets other than sports and presidential elections, and Kalshi's overall plan to let its users to eventually trade everything.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don Wilson has built a career diving into some of trading’s thorniest problems, including figuring out ways to trade new and niche markets. Now, the founder and CEO of DRW has his sights set on the GPUs powering AI, which he thinks could end up being a bigger market than crude oil. In this episode, which was recorded live onstage at our show in Chicago, we talk about how such a market would work, including ways to ‘standardize’ the vast array of different types of semiconductors, and how this could change the capital stack of the industry. We also talk the evolution of trading over Don’s storied career and why he thinks most assets (and maybe even all of them) will be tokenized within the next five years. Read more:ASM International Cuts Outlook After Chip Demand DisappointsTaiwan Pauses South African Chip Export Curbs After Two Days Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kindbody, one of the largest fertility companies in the US, sought to disrupt egg freezing and IVF by combining spa vibes with Silicon Valley efficiency. The startup raised millions, opened dozens of clinics, and became a billion-dollar unicorn. But its ambition came with consequences. In IVF Disrupted: The Kindbody Story, reporter Jackie Davalos takes listeners beyond Kindbody’s millennial-friendly waiting rooms and into the clinics themselves, showing the sometimes-heartbreaking consequences of bringing the “move fast and break things” mentality to the business of creating life.Visit Bloomberg.com/ivfdistrupted to learn more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We know that the top-tier AI labs are spending unbelievable amounts of money on talent. But what are these researchers actually working on? And how do we know that they're making progress? And furthermore, how can we even measure that progress? On this episode, we speak with Jack Morris, an AI researcher and Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University, who is also a part-time researcher at Meta. We talk about what he does, and why breakthroughs seem to be lumpy and unpredictable. We also talk about the battle between open- and closed-source approaches, US vs. Chinese labs, and how an individual talent thinks about where they want to spend their time, balancing the desire for research and prestige with a big fat paycheck.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are two huge winning trades that people are looking at day after day. Gold keeps going up and US tech stocks keep going up. But what is driving this intense flow? How long can these consensus trades last? On this episode, we speak with Ozan Tarman, the Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank. As part of his role at the bank, Ozan talks non-stop with hedge funders, sovereign wealth fund managers, and, of course, the analysts at his own bank. This means he has an excellent perspective on why these trades are so popular now. He explains why there is a decline in confidence about the US sovereign (hence the rise in gold) around the world, but also an incredible fixation on the success of the big US tech companies (hence their constant bid). We also talk about other popular consensus trades, from steepeners to Chinese equities to Liz Truss moments all around the world.c Read more:China Courts Foreign Gold Reserves to Boost Global CloutNvidia’s OpenAI Deal Fuels ‘Circular’ Financing Concerns Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In recent years, retail trading of stocks has absolutely exploded. This is happening despite the fact that investors are subject to a constant stream of propaganda that individuals can't beat the market, and that the proper way to invest is through low-cost index funds that you don't pay regular attention to. More than anyone else, one man has been banging the drum (literally) for years that individuals can beat the market and are smart enough to select individual securities. That, of course, is Jim Cramer, the host of the popular TV show Mad Money on CNBC. He is also the author of the new book, How to Make Money in Any Market. We discuss his philosophy of investing, his career, his time as a young college-age radical, the time he lead a wildcat strike and got fired, his thoughts on memestock mania, and much more. Read more: US Stocks Advance to Records to Close Out Risk-On FOMC Week Intel Soars After Nvidia Makes $5 Billion Investment Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When President Trump announced the tariffs on Liberation Day, it seemed to truly mark the end of the old world trading system. But of course it had been dying for a long time. The first Trump administration erected aggressive trading barriers against China. Then Biden expanded them further. And there were signs of its demise even under Obama. So what was the global trading system? What will come after it? What are the benefits and costs to changes? On this episode, we speak with Michael Froman, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations, and the former Trade Representative during Obama's second term. We discuss how the system began to collapse, and what he sees as the emergence of a new "polyamorous" global trading system, where friends and allies and partners move in a more liquid manner between different poles and blocs. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox now delivered every weekday plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There is a widespread view that China is a superpower of rising status, and that a new global order is emerging with the country as an important pole in it. You see this with the growing BRICS organization. You also see this with the leaders who went to Beijing recently for the country's military parade. And of course, this comes at a time when the US is erecting trade barriers with everyone, including many of our closest friends and allies. So how does China see its role in this world? Will it play a role that's similar to what the US has played? Will it look very different? Does China want to reinvigorate legacy multi-lateral organizations like the UN? On this episode, we speak with Henry Huiyao Wang, the Founder and President of the Center for China and Globalization. Having been founded in 2008, the CCG is now China's largest independent think tank, with offices in multiple cities. We discuss China's perspective on the US, its potential role in establishing a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, its perspective on Israel and Gaza, and the type of role it could play in a new form of globalization. Read more:China’s Defense Minister Warns on Taiwan, Condemns ‘Bullying’Why Is China Stockpiling So Much Oil? Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you look at prospectuses and earnings documents for almost any company, you're going to see a Delaware address. For more than a century, the state has been the place to go to if you're setting up a business. And in fact, Delaware has catered to these corporate clients, setting up an efficient chancery court to settle corporate disputes and producing a huge backlog of case law to act as reliable and efficient precedent. But suddenly, some companies are choosing to leave the state. Most prominent among them is Elon Musk's Tesla, which opted to re-incorporate in Texas after a Delaware judge invalidated his $56 billion pay package. States like Nevada and Texas are now also actively courting companies by enticing them with management-friendly laws. In this episode, we speak with Ann Lipton, University of Colorado law professor and Lawrence W. Demuth Chair, to find out what's at stake in the fight for incorporations and if there's a risk for a race to the bottom in terms of shareholder accountability. Read more:Why Tesla’s Chinese Rival BYD Faces a Raft of TroublesUS Panel Probes Huawei Affiliate’s Presence on Nvidia Campus Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost everything we buy nowadays has been in a box at some point. Goods are shipped in boxes. Products ordered online arrive at our doorstep in boxes. Boxes are so ubiquitous that some strategists use them as an unconventional macroeconomic indicator to gauge retail spending. Now, shipments of boxes are falling dramatically. At the same time, prices for boxes have actually been going up. So, what's going on? And what does it suggest about the health of the US consumer and the broader economy? In this episode, we speak with Ryan Fox, containers and packaging analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. We talk about the box industry overall, how companies choose their packaging, and what makes the perfect box. Read more:Lula, Xi Decry Tariffs and Urge BRICS Unity Amid Trump ThreatsWhat Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone wants to buy the hedge that will save their portfolio in a time of collapse. But this is easier said than done. You need to understand the specific risks facing your portfolio. You also need to get the disaster state right. Plus, insurance of any sort is costly. This means tail risk hedging is far from a trivial exercise. On this episode, we talk to someone who's been working on the problem for a long time. Vineer Bhansali is the CIO and founder of LongTail Alpha, which works to develop hedging implementations to prevent against left tail outcomes. Bhansali, who started off as an academic physicist before going to Wall Street, talks to us about options theory, the role of quantitative techniques, the time he won big in Liar's Poker, and why he perceives the loss of Fed independence as the biggest risk right now. Read more:Wall Street Rallies as Fed Gets All-Clear to Cut: Markets WrapGold Surpasses Inflation-Adjusted Record High Set in 1980 Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this live episode, recorded at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Rob Kaplan, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and the current vice chairman of Goldman Sachs. We discuss his views on the rate path, and why he does not see the Fed cutting by 50 bps at the next meeting. We also discuss the general macroeconomic environment, the US vs. China AI race, and why he sees globalization on the march — except it's happening without the US.Odd Lots is coming to Chicago for a live episode! Get your tickets hereOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The recent parade in Beijing once again raised questions about the relative strengths of the US and Chinese militaries. Meanwhile, because of recent global conflicts (including the clash between Indian and Pakistan earlier this year), we've gotten fresh data on how certain hardware actually holds up on the battlefield or in the skies. Separately, China is known to be working on a new 6th generation fighter for which some video has been shown. So who is ahead in terms of both cutting edge technology and also defense production at scale? And what does it even mean to have air superiority -- or even air "supremacy" when we're talking about modern warfare? On this episode, we speak with Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center about the state of the two air forces. More: Here’s the Military Hardware China Showed Off at Xi’s ParadeOdd Lots is coming to Chicago for a live episode! Get your tickets here See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One day it's so over. The next day we're so back. This is what it feels like gauging the AI boom right now. Everyone's looking for signs of some kind of slowdown and that investments aren't going pan out, but mostly, the dollar signs just keep piling up. And the AI winners like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Anthropic just keep seeing their market valuations rise. In the meantime, other AI players are seeing weird outcomes. Some promising startups aren't being sold, but rather their top talent is walking out the door, leaving other workers potentially in the lurch, while creating risk for venture capital bagholders. On this episode we speak with Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at the firm Lux Capital, which invests in a range of startups, many of which are in the AI space. He talks about the challenge of aligning incentives, what's overrated, what's underrated, why he thinks Nvidia may have run its course, and the threats to Silicon Valley's "social contract.”Odd Lots is coming to Chicago! Tickets on sale now. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For this week’s episode of Bloomberg’s Everybody’s Business, Joe Wiesenthal joins Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith to fact check President Trump’s recent claim that the “stock market needs the tariffs, they want the tariffs." Is it actually possible to tell how markets feel about tariffs? Do the markets even know themselves? The trio dives deep. Also on this episode, journalist and cultural commentator Sam Sanders of the Sam Sanders Show unpacks the lessons Hollywood is learning from its latest unexpected success: Netflix's mega-viral KPop Demon Hunters. And, finally, Stacey explain why—love them or hate them—tariffs are making your pumpkin spice latte (not to mention any pumpkin spice cat litter you happen to buy this fall) more expensive. Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to Everybody’s Business on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcasts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowing markedly. And furthermore, not only has the pace of job creation been slowing, it seems almost every monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number ends up getting revised lower. Of course, this comes at a time of some big transitions in the workforce — whether we're talking immigration changes, aging demographics, or AI. As such, just understanding the monthly data has never been more difficult. And because it's so difficult, it's also challenging to get a read-through from data to policy. On this episode we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research and North America strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. In addition to talking about the state of the labor market, we also discuss the goings-on in bond markets, and why the stress is particularly acute in Europe. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Buy Now Pay Later is everywhere nowadays. Companies like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna have brought installment payments into everyday life, while big banks and tech firms also now racing into the space. With the market growing so rapidly, there are obvious concerns over whether BNPL is adding a new layer of 'hidden leverage' to the economy, giving online shoppers an alternative to more traditional financing like credit cards and bank loans. Data about BNPL usage is notoriously limited, and BNPL firms have so far resisted sharing information. In this episode, we speak with Julie Margetta Morgan, formerly at the CFPB and now president of The Century Foundation, about what's driving the BNPL market, how BNPL companies make money, and the macroeconomic impacts of the BNPL boom. Read more:Klarna, Backers Seek $1.27 Billion in IPO After Tariff PauseDollar Tree Boosts Outlook as Consumers Keep Hunting for Deals Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the past couple of years, the world has fully awoken to the incredible economic and technological growth exhibited by China. But what lessons are there for America? Are there even lessons for America? Dan Wang, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover History Lab, has probably been one of the foremost commentators and observers on China's rise, having taken seriously their efforts to push the technological frontiers for years now. Now, he's out with a new book BREAKNECK: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. On this episode, we talk about what he's seen in the country, whether China is legitimately on the road to socialism, and how perceptions of the country have changed since he started doing his research. Read more:Samsung, SK Hynix Lose US Waivers on Chip Gear for China PlantsChina Warns Against Excess Competition in Booming AI Race Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gamblers on prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are already trying to cash in on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement — betting on everything from their wedding timeline to her next single.On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder sits down with Bloomberg personal finance reporter Francesca Maglione and wealth reporter Annie Massa to dig into what a high-profile engagement can teach us about the rapidly growing predictions industry, the challenges with regulating it and who’s investing in its future. Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Big Take podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcastsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The post-Covid inflation will prove to be a treasure trove for academic economists, as they study what drives inflation, and the power that central banks have to contain it once it gets going. At this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, UC Berkeley professor Emi Nakamura presented a new paper — co-authored with her Berkeley colleagues Jón Steinsson and Venance Riblier — titled Beyond the Taylor Rule. The paper sought to look at the wide range of choices that global central banks made in dealing with inflation to see what if anything could be learned about the Taylor Rule, a load-bearing idea in modern economics that describes what optimal monetary policy looks like when successfully balancing the Federal Reserve's objectives. Their paper discovers that in any bout of inflation, a central bank that has a greater history of fighting inflation also has the ability to deviate further from strict Taylor Rule guidelines, without achieving worse inflation outcomes. In an interview recorded in Jackson Hole, we speak with Professor Nakamura about her work and its implications for central bankers going forward. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

These days, everyone is talking about high interest rates across the rich, developed world, while warning of eventual fiscal disaster. But we may have gotten an early glimpse of this anxiety in October 2022, when then-UK Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled her mini-budget that spooked the gilt market. Well today, rates at the long end of the British yield curve are even higher. So what's going on? Why all this angst now about UK fiscal sustainability and the economy itself? In this episode, we speak with Liz Truss about what she learned during her brief time as the PM. She talks about the political reality of fiscal consolidation, and how difficult it is on both the tax and spending side. And we also discuss what her economic vision was really all about, had she not been forced from the position so quickly. In addition, we talk about the general state of politics, the media, and free speech in the UK. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Criticism and threats to Federal Reserve independence have been building for some time in this administration. But it was taken to a new height on August 25, when Trump posted that he intended to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee. According to our guest, Columbia Law Professor Lev Menand, this is a big deal that has created an immediate crisis. The Trump administration's argument is that it's firing Lisa Cook "for cause" due to allegations (and these are just allegations at this point) that she committed mortgage fraud. As Lev argues, these allegations alone can't justify the removal of someone in this position. We talk through the legal implications, the immediate path ahead, and what may ultimately be Trump's real aim when it comes to pressuring the Fed. Read more:Trump Moves to Fire Fed’s Cook, Setting Up Historic Fight Powell Opens Door to Interest Rate Cut, Citing Labor Markets Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The annual Jackson Hole symposium is, formally speaking, an academic conference. Economists and central bankers gather to discuss the most important, cutting edge ideas in monetary policy. But there was certainly a different feel this year because of the relentless attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell coming from President Trump. The whole premise of central bank independence is becoming a live question again. And without central bank independence, almost all of the more academic discussions feel like a waste of time. That makes for a surreal environment. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who now serves as President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He's the author of a recent Foreign Affairs article titled, "The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World." We talk about the shifting tectonic plates occurring domestically and internationally, what he sees as the folly of Trump's approach to trade and international relations, and how that intersects with the discourse among Central Bankers. Read more: What’s at Stake in the Fight Over Fed Independence Former ECB Chief Says ‘Illusion’ of EU as a Global Power Dashed Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin, much of the time central banking is straightforward. Sometimes it's clear that rate cuts are needed. Sometimes it's clear that rate hikes are needed. Other times everything is going great, and central bankers don't have much to worry about. Right now though, things are not straightforward. There are signs of labor market softening. But also there are reasons to be concerned that inflation pressure is building yet again. In times like this, the playbook is less obvious. On this episode, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Barkin walks us through how he's thinking about the economy right now. More: Fed’s Jackson Hole Points to a Hard Road Ahead for Powell Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.