Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇷🇺 Putin Signals Openness to Peace Deal – Putin said early this morning that several countries, including the US and China, are ready to support a peace agreement, though he stressed Russia and Ukraine must ultimately resolve it themselves. He also repeated prior warnings about potential attacks on airplanes in Russian airspace. 🌾 EU Scrambles to Keep Ukrainian Grain Moving – The EU is working with Ukraine and neighboring countries on alternative export routes as low water levels on the Danube complicate "solidarity lane" efforts, with Ukrainian grain exports down roughly 58% year-over-year in August. The bloc is also weighing extra financial support for farmers hit by this summer's heat and drought. ⛽ US Ethanol Production Dips but Stays Seasonally Strong – Weekly ethanol output slipped to 1.11 million barrels per day, down slightly week-over-week but up 3.7% versus last year, while stocks fell 1% week-over-week to 25.04 million barrels. Corn Belt margins weakened, ranging from 25 cents negative to 10 cents positive per Reuters data. 🌽 Arkansas Harvest Running Well Ahead of Schedule – Arkansas' soybean harvest sits at 4% complete, above the five-year average of 2%, while corn harvest is 42% done versus last year's 31% and the five-year average of 19%. Hot, dry conditions and early planting have sped things along, with corn harvest expected wrapped in two to three weeks. 🇨🇳 Another Soybean Flash Sale to China – USDA confirmed a fresh sale of 202,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. See the China soybean purchase tracker below. 🥩 DOJ Widens Beef Antitrust Probe to Retailers – The investigation now covers eight major retailers, including Amazon, Costco, and Walmart, building on the probe Trump launched last November over alleged meatpacker collusion. Beef prices remain stubbornly high as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over 70 years amid drought and rising input costs.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Wheat futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 Chicago up ~9¢ to $7.83/bu and Dec26 KC up ~7¢ to $8.45/bu. The move came after Russia rejected a Black Sea attack moratorium, though it also suspended export duties through year-end. 🌽 Corn climbed too, with Dec26 gaining ~8¢ to settle at $5.46/bu on crop yield worries and wheat spillover strength. Funds may have posted a record net long position of 412k contracts — watch for CFTC confirmation Friday! 🫘 Soybeans stole the show, with Nov26 surging nearly 30¢ to $13.18/bu. EPA's reallocation news, continued Chinese buying, and hot/dry weather worries all fueled the rally. 🛢️ Oil prices spiked 5.2% as WTI settled at $90.22/barrel — its highest close since late July — after US airstrikes on Iranian targets reignited Middle East tensions. Diesel hit a 52-week high at $5.63/gallon, way up from $3.69 a year ago. 🔥 Extreme heat is threatening Corn Belt crops this week, with triple-digit temps risking grain fill and stalk quality issues. Purdue's Dan Quinn expects an early harvest with yields landing near average, not a bumper crop or a disaster. 📊 USDA unveiled a plan to modernize ag data collection, leaning on satellite imagery, geospatial tools, and AI to cut duplicate reporting for farmers. Secretary Brooke Rollins says the goal is timelier, more accurate data while protecting producer privacy. 😊 Farmer sentiment rose for a second straight month, with Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer hitting 135 in August, the highest since December 2025. More farmers now expect to be better off financially next year than worse off, for the first time since June 2025. 🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans, with a fresh flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) for the 2026/2027 marketing year. 🚜 John Deere rolled out an AI assistant called JD in its Operations Center app to help farmers make real-time input decisions. It's free, won't sell farmer data, and rolls out more widely later this year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 EPA Small Refinery Exemptions: EPA granted full exemptions to 18 refineries and partial exemptions to 11 out of 34 petitions, covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025. 📈 The agency plans to reallocate 100% of those credits to larger refiners in 2026-2027, sending soybean oil futures sharply higher. 🌍 Black Sea Grain Talks: Turkey has finalized a plan for safe Black Sea grain shipments and is in talks with both Russia and Ukraine. 📉 The hope for resumed exports pushed wheat futures lower, even as Russian airstrikes continued hitting Odesa and Kyiv overnight. 🚢 Grain Export Inspections: US corn export inspections hit a record high for the week at 1.5mmt, up 13% from the prior week. 📊 Soybean shipments disappointed at just 250,801mt (-42% week-over-week), while wheat came in near the top of expectations. 🌱 Crop Conditions Update: Corn conditions held steady at 57% good-to-excellent, but soybeans slipped for a fourth straight week to 58%. ✅ Spring wheat harvest is running way ahead of schedule at 77% complete, nearly finished in South Dakota and Washington. 💰 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA confirmed a flash sale of 159,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Notably, China was absent from last week's export inspection totals entirely. 🐄 Ranchers First Initiative: USDA unveiled a new program to rebuild the US cow herd, including a heifer retention insurance endorsement and $500 million for meat processing capacity. 🏛️ The plan also adds federal beef purchases for schools and hospitals, plus faster disaster relief access for ranchers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Wheat futures hit a 3+ year high Friday as Dec26 Chicago wheat jumped ~23¢ to $7.84/bu and KC wheat rose ~22¢ to $8.44/bu. Escalating Black Sea military tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep fueling the rally, with Turkey now trying to broker a shipping agreement between the two sides. 🌽 Corn futures also climbed, with Dec26 up 3¢ to $5.37/bu on tight US yield concerns and strong demand. Restricted Ukrainian exports are adding extra support to the market. 🌱 Soybeans joined the rally too, with Nov26 gaining 20¢ to close at $12.88/bu. Fresh flash sales to China and other buyers helped keep momentum going. 📊 CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed big money managers piling into grains last week, buying 136k corn, 49k soybean, and 12k SRW wheat contracts. The corn net long position has surged to an estimated 379k contracts — rare, historically elevated territory for the fund community. 🛢️ The Trump administration struck a major oil deal with Venezuela, gaining US access to 17 oil fields with ~65 billion barrels of potential reserves. The deal could draw $100B in investment, though relief at the pump isn't expected anytime soon given infrastructure and political hurdles. 🥩 Trump also announced plans to let cattle producers process their own beef, aiming to loosen the Big Four meatpackers' grip on the industry. Critics note the move likely won't meaningfully shift the broader beef market and raises food-safety concerns tied to bypassing USDA inspection.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Wheat hits a three-year high as Black Sea exports nearly halt amid Russia-Ukraine strikes—Chicago wheat settled near $7.61/bu, KC wheat at $8.22/bu. It's on pace for the biggest monthly gain since Feb 2022, right when the war began. ⛽ Biofuels: The Trump admin is weighing nearly doubling small refinery exemptions (up to 1.8B gallons) to cut fuel prices before the midterms. Farm groups warn it could crush corn and soybean oil demand, though a 2027 biofuel quota bump may help offset it. ☔ Weather markets: Kalshi is partnering with The Weather Company to grow its weather prediction contracts, with volume up 500% YoY toward a $1.1B annualized pace. The bigger play may be farmers using these as a hedge against rainfall and temperature swings. 🇨🇳 China's crops: Extreme heat and flooding are hurting corn and soybean quality, likely boosting demand for imported corn and sorghum. Soybean imports probably won't get the same lift since China's domestic beans go to food, not feed. 🌵 Drought monitor: Corn Belt conditions held mostly steady, though Wisconsin and Minnesota worsened. Corn 27%, soybeans 28%, winter wheat 56%, spring wheat 80%, and cattle 58% are in some level of drought. 📉 Export sales: Corn sales crashed to a marketing-year low of just 31,200mt, down 87% week-over-week. Soybean sales dipped too, but wheat sales rose 2%, with Mexico leading purchases.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇷🇺🌾 Russia-Ukraine Tensions Escalate—Peace talks have collapsed, and Russia is weighing intensified strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian infrastructure, with Black Sea grain shipments essentially halted amid attacks on ships and ports. Up to 70 vessels are stuck waiting near the Sulina Canal, and worsening weather could add to the delays. 📈🌽 Grains Rally on War Fears — Chicago wheat hit its daily limit Wednesday, settling near $7.48/bushel, while KC wheat, corn, and soybeans all posted strong gains. Reuters reports Ukraine's grain exports are down 60% this month vs. July, and Ukraine's farm ministry warns 2027 planted area could shrink without financial support. ⛽🚜 SRE Exemptions Could Balloon—The White House is pushing for more small refinery exemptions to ease fuel prices before the midterms, with industry sources now pegging the total as high as 1.2-1.8 billion RINs. The American Soybean Association warns this could wipe out 500M gallons of biodiesel/renewable diesel demand and cost farmers ~$1B. 🇨🇳🫘 China Buys More Soybeans—USDA confirmed another flash sale Wednesday, with US exporters selling 333,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Check out the export sales and China purchase tracker graphics below. 🏭📊 Ethanol Output Hits Seasonal High — Weekly ethanol production climbed to 1.11 million barrels/day, up 2.1% week-over-week, while stocks rose to a sixteen-week high of 25.21 million barrels. Margins across the Corn Belt weakened, ranging from 10 cents negative to 30 cents positive. 🥩🐄 Trump Eyes Beef Regulation Overhaul—On Glenn Beck's show, Trump floated cutting regulations in beef processing to help farmers, ranchers, and the economy, without offering specifics. Ground beef averaged $7.12/lb in July—up 9% year-over-year and 47% over five years—and Trump also signed a proclamation boosting reduced-tariff beef imports.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 up 8¢ to close near $5.24/bu on shrinking yield expectations and worsening crop conditions. Soybeans climbed too — Nov26 gained almost 14¢ to settle around $12.38/bu on strong Chinese demand and crush margins, though traders are watching for possible Chinese retaliation over new US sanctions on Iran's trading partners. 🌾 Wheat also closed higher despite growing talk of a potential Ukraine-Russia diplomatic resolution that could ease Black Sea shipping disruptions. 🛢️ Diesel markets are bracing for more tightness as Russia weighs extending its export ban — possibly through October 1, or even year-end — in response to Ukraine's refinery strikes, which have hit 18 targets this month alone. Russia normally supplies about 10% of global diesel exports, so a longer ban could meaningfully squeeze prices, margins, and freight costs worldwide. 📦 Soybean exports: USDA flagged a flash sale Tuesday — 132,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check the new crop export sales graphic below for the full picture. 🤖 California ag labor: State lawmakers are weighing a late-session proposal to let autonomous farm equipment work alongside laborers in the same fields, drawing pushback from labor unions over safety and job concerns. Critics also say tucking the change into a budget trailer bill sidesteps normal legislative review, even though autonomous gear from companies like John Deere is already deployed elsewhere in the state. 🥩 Beef tariffs: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is still hashing out details on Trump's plan to pause elevated tariffs on up to 300,000mt of imported ground beef, sold at a reported 25% discount to market prices. 🐄 The idea has drawn sharp criticism from ranchers and lawmakers who say it undercuts domestic cattle producers, despite Trump's "America First" messaging.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Crop Conditions Slip — US corn ratings dropped to 57% good-to-excellent, down from 60% last week and below the 5-year average. North Dakota and Ohio led the declines with steep weekly drops. 📉 🌾 Iowa Yield Checks In — Pioneer's 4,000+ yield checks put Iowa corn at 226.5bpa, just shy of last year, while Pro Farmer's estimate came in notably lower at 193.98bpa. USDA's August number remains the highest of the bunch at 216bpa. 📊 💰 Corn Rallies, Soybeans Slide — Dec26 corn climbed to $5.16/bu on weak Crop Tour results and Brazil weather worries, while Nov26 beans dropped to $12.24 on a record-crop outlook. 🌱📈📉 🕊️ Black Sea Diplomacy Talk — Zelenskiy signaled Ukraine and Russia may pursue diplomatic efforts, even as strikes continue and Ukraine pushes allies for more air defense ahead of winter. ⚔️🤝 🇨🇳 New China Tariff on the Table — The US is weighing a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods that would push total tariffs to ~20%, timed ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting next month. 🏭💵 🚢 Export Inspections Mixed — Corn shipments fell 33% week-over-week, soybean shipments jumped 43% with no China purchases recorded, and wheat shipments dropped 17%. 📦🌐 🐄 Mexican Cattle Ports Reopening — USDA reopened the Douglas, AZ port and plans two more reopenings in the coming months as Mexico battles screwworm cases. 🇲🇽🥩

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Crop Tour Shocks the Corn Market — Pro Farmer's survey pegged national corn yield at just 173.2 bpa (15.34 bil bu), well under USDA's 180.7 bpa estimate, with Iowa fields hiding disappointing grain length despite looking strong from the road. Soybeans told the opposite story, with a record 53.3 bpa yield (4.57 bil bu) projected as conditions improved heading west. 📈 💹 Grains Rally on Bullish Tour Data — Corn closed up for a third straight session, with Dec26 gaining 5 cents to ~$5.09, while Nov26 soybeans rose 3 cents to ~$12.40 on tight supply fears and Chinese demand. ❌ Wheat slipped as traders eyed alternative suppliers amid ongoing Black Sea export disruptions. 🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Beans — USDA flash sales showed 712,000mt of soybeans sold to China and another 720,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/27 delivery. 🌽 Corn also saw 205,000mt sold to an unknown buyer for the new marketing year. 📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest CoT report showed managed money adding 56k corn contracts (now net long 182k, the biggest since May) and 43k soybean contracts. 🌾 SRW wheat funds added a modest 8k contracts on the week. 🚢 Russia Scrambles to Support Farmers — With over 97% of Black Sea export capacity offline from ongoing strikes, Moscow is weighing loan extensions, subsidies, and government grain purchases to help exporters. 🌍 Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, so the standstill carries major global weight. 🥩 Trump Opens the Door to Cheaper Beef Imports — The administration will allow 300,000mt of tariff-free ground beef imports over 90 days, with exporters agreeing to a 25% discount they claim will reach consumers. 🐄 Cattle groups are pushing back hard, though the volume is only ~2% of US consumption. 📋 Cattle on Feed: Mixed Signals — August 1 cattle on feed hit 11.12 mil head (+2% YoY), with July placements down 11% (a bullish surprise) but longer feeding times masking a shrinking cowherd. 🚪 The report may get overshadowed by Trump's beef tariff news and today's reopening of the border to Mexican cattle.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results — Iowa corn came in at 194 bpa (above the 3-yr average) while Minnesota hit 199 bpa, both showing solid potential despite some pollination and drought stress. Soybean pod counts were strong in both states, especially Minnesota's impressive 15% jump above its 3-yr average. 📈 📊 Grain Futures Update — Corn (Dec26) crept up to ~$5.04/bu on mixed Crop Tour results, while soybeans (Nov26) slipped slightly to ~$12.37/bu amid farmer selling vs. export demand. Wheat stayed mixed as buyers eye alternatives to Black Sea supply. 🌾 🚢 Export Sales Snapshot — Corn sales dipped last week (Japan the top buyer) but new-crop corn and soybean sales were strong, with soybeans hitting 1.7mmt in new-crop demand led by the Netherlands. Wheat sales beat expectations, up 54% week-over-week with Mexico leading purchases. 🌍 🚜 John Deere Optimism — Deere raised its profit forecast and shares jumped up to 10% on stronger 2027 equipment orders and normalizing used-equipment values. The recovery is still gradual, with regional sales down 15-20%, though Deere recovered $382M in tariff costs. 💰 🇧🇷 Brazil's Corn Deficit Widens — Booming ethanol demand is projected to push Brazil's corn deficit to 7.2mmt, up 167% from last season. Rising livestock feed use and slower production growth (due to tight credit) are compounding the squeeze. ⛽ 🏥 Farmer Health Insurance Strain — Expiring ACA subsidies have driven premiums sharply higher for many farm families, adding financial pressure on top of tough margins. In Wisconsin alone, 14% of farm families now have no coverage at all, with another 17% relying only on catastrophic plans. 😟

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans led a broad grain rally Wednesday, with Nov26 jumping ~21¢ to settle near $12.37/bu on disappointing Crop Tour results. Corn and wheat joined the move higher too, with Dec26 corn topping $5.00/bu overnight for the first time since May 19th! 🌽 🚜 The Pro Farmer Crop Tour hit Illinois and western Iowa, finding IL corn yields down 7.7% YoY at 184.2 bpa and soybean pod counts below both last year and the 3-year average. Iowa fared better, with soybean estimates topping the 3-year average even as disease pressure showed up more than expected. 🔍 🏦 Fed July meeting minutes signaled another rate hike may still be needed if inflation doesn't cool toward the 2% target, even with annual inflation sitting at 3.4%. But softer economic data since then has cut September hike odds to just 36%, down from 70% at the end of July. 📉 ⛈️ Severe storms are lining up across the Corn Belt, with Thursday's threat stretching from Nebraska to Minnesota and expanding Friday into Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. More rounds are expected through the weekend, raising flash flooding and crop damage concerns on already-saturated fields. 🌩️ 🚢 Black Sea shipping disruptions could slash Ukraine's wheat exports to just 5-10mmt this season, down from ~14mmt last year, as over 97% of Azov/Black Sea export capacity is lost to ongoing attacks. Ukraine is leaning on rail, the Danube, and road routes, which could cover roughly half of normal export potential. 🌾 ⛽ US ethanol output slipped to 1.1mil bbl/day last week, down 2.5% from the prior week, while stocks climbed to a 15-week high of 25.12mil barrels. Corn Belt margins softened slightly but stayed positive, running 15-35 cents in the black. 💰

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results – Indiana corn came in at 183.5 bpa (down 5.3% YoY) while Nebraska corn was pegged at 163.6 bpa (down 8.9% YoY), with dryland fields dragging down state averages. 📉 Soybean pod counts were also lower in both states, and standing water in Indiana is raising disease pressure concerns. 🌱 Soybean & Corn Futures Update – Soybeans rallied for a third straight session, with Nov26 closing near $12.17/bu on yield worries, Chinese demand, and rising crude prices. 🌾 Corn slipped slightly, with Dec26 settling at $4.88/bu as traders digest crop tour data, while wheat stayed weak despite Black Sea turmoil. ⛽ Diesel Margins Hit Record Highs – US diesel refining margins topped $100/barrel for the first time ever as the US-Iran war disrupts Strait of Hormuz flows. 🔥 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are adding fuel to the fire, potentially meaning pricier heating costs this winter. 🌤️ Cooler, Wetter Pattern Incoming – A jet stream dip starting Thursday will bring cooler Canadian air into the Corn Belt, with highs in the 70s-80s and lows dipping into the 40s-50s. ☔ More rain is expected Friday into next week, which could relieve heat stress but worsen saturation in already-soggy fields. 🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Soybeans – USDA confirmed another flash sale of 136,000mt to China for 2026/2027 delivery, pushing new crop purchases to 22.3% of the White House's 25mmt goal. ✅ Old crop purchases already blew past their target, hitting 104% of the outlined goal. 🚢 Black Sea Shipping Chaos Deepens—Five grain vessels were attacked near Novorossiysk and Tuapse this week as Russia-Ukraine strikes on ports continue to escalate. ⚠️ With Azov Sea shipments halted since July 10 and terminals suspending operations, roughly a quarter of global wheat exports are increasingly at risk.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results (SD & OH): South Dakota corn came in at 149.1 bpa (-14% YoY) with soybean pods down 20% YoY, both falling short of USDA's estimates. Ohio fared better at 180.2 bpa for corn (-3% YoY), but the tour's steeper declines vs. USDA in both states could be seen as a friendly signal for prices! 📉 🚀 Soybeans Rally Hard: Nov26 beans jumped nearly 24 cents to $12.16/bu — the highest close since late July — fueled by excessive Corn Belt rainfall fears, a strong NOPA crush report, and rising crude oil. Corn also gained ~6 cents to settle near $4.90/bu on Dec26, while wheat traders took profits despite Black Sea shipping worries lurking in the background. 🌧️💰 📊 Crop Conditions Slip: US corn conditions dipped to 60% good-to-excellent (below the 5-year average of 62%), and soybeans slid to 61% good-to-excellent as well. Spring wheat bucked the trend, improving to 52% G/E with harvest racing ahead of schedule at 41% complete! 🌾 🏭 NOPA Crush Report – Record July: Soybean crush hit a record for the month at 216.65 million bushels, up 11% YoY, though it missed trade estimates. Soybean oil stocks crashed to a 9-month low of 1.36 billion lbs — the lowest July level on record — signaling red-hot demand for soy products! 🛢️📉 🚢 Export Inspections – Mixed Bag: Corn shipments surged to a 10-week high at 75 million bushels (+82% YoY!), while soybean shipments disappointed at just 10 million bushels (-46% YoY) with zero activity from China. Wheat exports beat expectations too, climbing 22% YoY to 18 million bushels! 🇨🇳❌ 🧪 Phosphate Makes a Comeback: Moroccan phosphate returned to the US for the first time in 5 years, with 54,000mt landing in New Orleans after countervailing duty relief. Don't expect a price crash though — global phosphate supply remains extremely tight, with roughly two-thirds constrained worldwide! ⚗️💵

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Corn Belt Flooding Intensifies – The already-saturated Corn Belt got hit with another round of heavy rain this weekend, with Illinois and Indiana seeing localized totals over 5". The White River in Anderson, Indiana crested at 24.9 feet, breaking a flood record that had stood since 1913! 😱 📈 Grain Prices Surge on Friday – Corn, beans, and wheat all rallied hard to close out the week, with December corn near $4.83 and wheat leading the charge near $7.54. Black Sea export worries plus "too much rain" fears across the Corn Belt combined to fuel the move higher. 🚀 🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Begins Today – Scouts are hitting the road to survey over 2,000 fields across seven states, giving us our first real independent look at corn and soybean yield potential this season. The eastern and western legs run through Thursday, and we'll be bringing you daily updates all week long. 🔍 🚢 Black Sea Chaos Reshapes Global Grain Trade – Escalating Russia-Ukraine port attacks are pushing Asian buyers toward alternative suppliers, with countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh sourcing wheat from Australia and Romania instead. Ukraine warned it may only export half its expected ag goods this season as vessels grow hesitant to enter the war zone. ⚓ 💰 Funds Keep Selling Ag Contracts – The latest CFTC data shows large money managers were net sellers across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending August 11. It's a continuation of the bearish positioning we've been tracking in recent reports. 📉 🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying US Beans – Another flash sale hit the tape Friday, with China picking up more new-crop soybeans for the 2026/2027 marketing year. New crop soybean sales are now running +153% ahead of last year's pace, largely thanks to a wave of Chinese purchases. 🌱 📊 Wall Street Notches Another Record Week – The S&P 500 closed at fresh highs, marking its third straight weekly gain as cooling inflation data boosted rate-cut-hold expectations. Investors are still keeping one eye on Middle East tensions, though, as rising Treasury yields hint that borrowing costs aren't easing up just yet. 💹

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Belt Weather  🌧️ Too much rain is becoming a problem in parts of the Corn Belt. Heavy rain from Iowa to Ohio and into Kentucky has caused flooding, with Indiana and Ohio seeing some of the heaviest amounts. More rain and severe storms are possible in the coming days, and some water levels could approach record highs. Localized crop damage has already been reported from strong winds, flooding, and heavy rain.  💧 Rainfall has been highly variable across the region. Southern Iowa and parts of Missouri saw drought conditions improve, while dry conditions worsened in central Illinois, western Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Since the beginning of August, Iowa has received 172% of normal rainfall, Illinois 162%, Indiana 255%, and Ohio 295%. Meanwhile, parts of the Plains remain very dry, with Oklahoma at just 18% of normal rainfall, South Dakota at 32%, Kansas at 41%, and North Dakota at 43%.  🌾 Areas Experiencing Drought   Corn: 29% Soybeans: 26% Winter wheat: 52% Spring wheat: 63% Cattle: 53% 📉 Grain Markets   🌽 Corn futures pulled back Thursday. December corn fell nearly 9 cents to $4.72 per bushel as traders took profits following Wednesday's rally. Large South American crops and favorable U.S. weather forecasts also pressured prices. 🫘 Soybeans finished mixed. November soybeans slipped a penny to $11.82 per bushel. Favorable weather and expectations for large South American supplies offset stronger demand for U.S. soybeans. 🌾 Wheat futures also edged lower. Early gains tied to Black Sea shipping concerns faded after Ukraine proposed halting attacks on civilian targets in the region. Russia has denied receiving the proposal. 🚢 Ukraine Grain Exports Plunge 🇺🇦 Ukrainian grain exports have fallen sharply. Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels caused exports to drop 75% year over year during the first two weeks of August. The disruption comes at a difficult time, with wheat harvest at its peak, storage filling up, and corn harvest approaching. 📦 Farmers are struggling to sell their grain. Without export revenue, some farmers may not have enough money to cover expenses and plant winter or next year's crops. Ukraine is using rail, road, and Danube routes, but those alternatives cannot handle nearly as much grain as the country's Black Sea ports. 📊 U.S. Export Demand 🌽 U.S. corn export sales were stronger than expected. Weekly sales reached 410,700 MT, or about 16 million bushels, up 46% from the four-week average. Spain was the largest buyer, while new-crop corn sales reached 925,000 MT, or about 36 million bushels. 🫘 Soybean demand was mixed. Old-crop sales totaled 75,100 MT, or 3 million bushels, down 48% from the four-week average. However, new-crop soybean sales were strong at 1.8 MMT, or about 65 million bushels, with China the largest buyer. 🌾 Wheat sales remained soft. Sales totaled 255,900 MT, or 9 million bushels, down 14% from the previous week and 8% below the four-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer. 🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying U.S. Soybeans 🫘 China purchased another 125,000 MT of U.S. soybeans. The sale is for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year. China has now purchased roughly 21% of its 25 MMT U.S. soybean commitment. 🧪 Fertilizer Prices Ease 📉 The global fertilizer market is showing signs of improvement. India received urea offers about 12% below its June purchase price, while urea prices have fallen by more than half from the $959 per ton paid in April. ⚠️ However, risks remain. Reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt fertilizer trade, while stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks are keeping uncertainty high. 🥩 Tyson Cuts Beef Capacity 🏭 Tyson Foods is closing more beef facilities. The company will close plants in Illinois and Utah and is seeking a buyer for another facility in Washington. Tyson plans to consolidate its beef operations around major plants in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas. 🐄 The closures highlight the severity of the cattle shortage. The U.S. cattle herd remains at its lowest level in more than seven decades, forcing packers to compete aggressively for expensive cattle. Cargill and JBS have also closed or repurposed facilities as the beef industry works to improve margins.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Slashes Corn & Soybean Yields—The USDA cut its 2026/27 corn yield to 180.7 bpa and soybean yield to 52.7 bpa, both below trade expectations. Higher planted acreage still pushed total production estimates above July's forecasts for both crops. 📊 🌾 Wheat Crop Stays Historically Small—USDA held its wheat production estimate at 1.53 billion bushels, marking the smallest US crop in 56 years. The report came with a much-improved 62.7% survey response rate. 📉 🚀 Grain Futures Rally on the Report — Corn futures jumped ~20 cents to settle near $4.81/bu, its best close since late July, while soybeans gained ~15 cents to $11.83/bu. Wheat rode the wave higher too, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts both up over 20 cents. 💰 🌱 Prevented Plantings Drop Sharply—Corn prevented plant acres fell 25% and soybeans plunged 56% from last year, while wheat prevented plantings rose 31%. Overall, corn and wheat acreage declined while soybean acreage expanded roughly 7%. 📐 ⛈️ Severe Storms Batter the Corn Belt—Winds up to 100 mph, tornadoes, and flooding rains of 8–10 inches swept through the region, knocking out power for hundreds of thousands. Early damage reports appear localized, but more storms are expected through the week. ⚡ 🇨🇳 China Books Another Soybean Flash Sale—US exporters sold 244,000mt of soybeans to China ahead of Xi Jinping's expected Washington visit next month. Most buying is coming from state traders, while private importers stay sidelined due to tariffs and weak commercial viability. 🚢 🇧🇷 Brazilian Farmers Face Rising Bankruptcies — Agribusiness bankruptcy filings jumped 22% year-over-year in Q1, led by soybean and cattle producers. Corporate farm filings surged nearly 74% amid higher costs and tighter credit. 💸 ⛽ Ethanol Output & Margins Stay Strong — US ethanol production rose 1% week-over-week to 1.12 million barrels per day, with stocks hitting an 11-week high. Corn Belt margins remain solidly positive, ranging from 15 to 45 cents. 🔥

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌩️ Severe storms tore through the Corn Belt Tuesday, spawning tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana and knocking out power to nearly a million people. Parts of Indiana and Ohio saw 6"+ of rain in 24 hours, and more stormy weather is expected through the week. 🌾 Russian August wheat exports could hit a 10-year low as Sovecon slashes its forecast to 3-3.4mmt amid Black Sea shipping disruptions. Ukraine's exports are also sinking, down 76% in August y/y, after drone strikes suspended operations at two major Novorossiysk grain terminals. 📡 The USDA is overhauling NASS crop reporting, tapping Kip Tom to modernize a system plagued by falling survey response rates. The plan leans on satellite imagery, drones, and machine-generated data to eventually deliver faster, more frequent (and more accurate) corn and soybean estimates. 📊 The USDA's Crop Production and WASDE report drops Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields after a hot, dry July. This is the first report to incorporate actual survey data, and both new crop US and world carryout estimates are expected to shrink. 🚢 USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Tuesday, with 136,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 180,000mt of soybean meal sold to the Philippines. Both deals are set for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Ultra-Processed Foods Definition Delayed? The food industry is pushing the Trump administration to delay its ultra-processed foods definition, warning it could raise costs and spark litigation. 🏛️ Despite pushback, officials say the definition is still moving forward—just with uncertain timing. 📉 DTN Yield Models Point Lower DTN's Digital Yield Tour pegs national corn yield at 178.5 bpa and soybeans at 52.1 bpa, both below USDA's estimates. 🌾 If it holds, US corn production could fall 8-9% from last year. 📊 USDA WASDE Report Wednesday USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE report Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields. ⏳ It's the first report to incorporate actual survey data this season. 🌱 Crop Conditions: Mixed corn ratings held steady at 61% good-to-excellent, while soybeans slipped to 62%. ☀️ Spring wheat conditions worsened too, though winter wheat harvest is now 91% complete. 💹 Grain Markets Await Report: Soybeans edged higher, and corn stayed flat as traders sat on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's data. 🌊 Wheat saw modest gains despite Black Sea shipping concerns, with weak demand still the bigger focus. 🚜 Farmers Push for Transparency & E15 Minnesota Corn Growers' Todd Wentzel says the Fertilizer Transparency Act could ease farmers' input costs. ⛽ With E15 now in the farm bill, year-round sales could be a big win for farm profitability. 🔥 Europe's Fifth Heat Wave Triple-digit temps are scorching France and England as Europe faces its fifth heat wave, worsening drought along the Rhine and Danube. 💶 Losses are already estimated at $1.7 billion, with roughly 9mmt of crops destroyed. 🚢 US Export Inspections Strong Corn export inspections hit 1.7mmt for the week, up 14% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. 🇨🇳 China reappeared in the data for the first time in three weeks. ⚡ Flash Sale Alert USDA reported a new flash sale of 105,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/2026 delivery. 📈 Total corn sales for the marketing year are now running 23% ahead of last year's pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Ukraine grain exports could plunge as Russian attacks on Odesa disrupt Black Sea shipments, with the ag ministry slashing its export estimate 54% to 29.6mmt. 📦 Storage bins could be full by November, leaving an 11mmt shortfall as alternative routes through Romania can't fully replace Odesa's capacity. 📈 Wheat futures bounced back Friday, with Chicago Sep26 up nearly 9 cents to $6.40/bu and KC Sep26 up 14 cents to $7.14/bu on a weaker dollar and Black Sea worries. 🌽 Corn held mostly steady while soybeans slipped despite China ramping up US purchases, with traders positioning ahead of Wednesday's USDA report. 🌧️ This week's forecast looks favorable for the Corn Belt, with rain chances across the central and eastern regions offering relief from recent heat. The hot, dry western Corn Belt should trend cooler and wetter by week's end, though rainfall may stay uneven in spots. 💰 CFTC data shows managed money added 18k corn contracts for the week ending August 4, pushing the net long to 145k contracts, the biggest since late May. 📉 Funds were net sellers of 28k soybean contracts and 17k SRW wheat contracts on the week. 🛳️ USDA flash sales Friday: 238,000mt (9mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇲🇽 Corn sales to Mexico totaled 286,097mt (11mil bu), split between the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 marketing years.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽🔥 North Dakota Drought & Crops — North Dakota is baking through a hot, dry July with record triple-digit heat and worsening drought, and it's hitting crops hard: corn dropped to 50% good-to-excellent (from 61%) and soybeans fell to 46% (from 52%). Relief may be on the way, with better rain chances and more seasonal temps expected in August. 🌾 🗺️ US Drought Monitor Update — Heavy rain eased drought across parts of the Corn Belt (central/NW Indiana, SE Kentucky, N Illinois, NW Minnesota, SE Wisconsin), but dry pockets in Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois saw conditions worsen. The Plains stayed hot, with drought deepening in North Dakota, western Nebraska, central Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma despite some relief in the Dakotas/Nebraska. 🌵 📈 Grain Futures Recap — Corn (Dec26) ticked up 2¢ to $4.62/bu on short covering, though Corn Belt rain forecasts kept a lid on gains. Soybeans (Nov26) climbed 3¢ to $11.78/bu on fresh Chinese demand, while wheat slipped despite Black Sea shipping uncertainty. 💹 🇨🇳🫘 China Soybean Buying Spree — China snapped up another 122,000mt of US soybeans for 2026/27 delivery, bringing its flash-sale total to ~2.5mmt over the past month. Buying is ramping up ahead of Xi Jinping's expected US visit, with chatter that sorghum and barley purchases could be next. 🤝 📦 US Export Sales — Corn sales tumbled to a marketing-year low of 116,700mt, down 68% week-over-week, with South Korea leading purchases. Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year low at just 32,200mt (Indonesia the top buyer), while wheat held steadier at 296,400mt led by the Philippines. 🚢

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Global Food Prices Set to Climb 📈 The UN warns food prices could start rising by year-end and accelerate into 2027, driven by conflicts in Iran/Ukraine pushing up oil, diesel, gas, and fertilizer costs. 🌦️ El Niño threatens crop yields in key growing regions, and while consumers haven't felt it yet, higher commodity costs typically take 3-6 months to hit grocery shelves. 🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Again 📉 Dec26 corn dropped ~6 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans fell 3 cents to ~$11.75/bu as favorable rain forecasts across the Corn Belt pressured prices, with StoneX projecting a yield above USDA's estimate. 🌾 Wheat bucked the trend and closed higher on renewed Black Sea shipping concerns tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 🏛️ Farm Bureau Pushes for Senate Aid Approval 💰 AFBF President Zippy Duvall is urging the Senate to pass the House's budget resolution, which includes $12 billion in economic aid for farmers and ranchers. 🚜 The relief won't fully cover recent losses, but comes as producers battle rising costs, inflation, and weak commodity prices — on top of an estimated $44.3 billion in government payments already expected this year. 🚢 Flash Sale Alert: Corn Export Sold 🌽 USDA reported 120,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to exporters on Wednesday. 📦 30,000mt ships in the 2026/27 marketing year, with the remaining 90,000mt slated for 2027/28 delivery. ⛽ Ethanol Production Dips, Margins Hold Strong 📊 Weekly ethanol output fell 2.3% week-over-week to 1.11 million barrels/day, though it's up 1% year-over-year, while stocks slipped to 24.52 million barrels. 💪 Despite the dip, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain healthy, running 10-40 cents positive per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates — StoneX pegged the national corn yield at 184.8bpa (16.16bil bu), above USDA's 183.0bpa, while soybeans came in at 53.0bpa (4.47bil bu), just above USDA's last call. 📊 USDA updates its own numbers on August 12, so all eyes are on that report next. 📉 Grain Markets Slide — Corn (Dec26) and soybeans (Nov26) both closed lower Tuesday, pressured by falling crude oil on Iran diplomacy hopes and better August rain chances across the Corn Belt. 🌦️ Wheat also slipped despite ongoing Black Sea shipping chaos. 🇨🇳 Another China Soybean Flash Sale — USDA confirmed a fresh 132,000mt soybean sale to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. 🔥 That's the third flash sale to China in just the past week. ⚓ Black Sea Export Crisis — Russian strikes near Odesa have shipowners suspending calls, choking off Ukraine's grain export routes and crushing local prices by ~30%. 🚂 Rail/road/river alternatives won't hit meaningful capacity until late August, and even then only handle about half the usual volume — risking 30mmt+ in lost exports. 📈 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds — Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer jumped to 126 in July from 113 in June, though still below last year's 135. 💰 High input costs remain the top worry, but optimism about future export markets persists. 🏭 ADM Raises Guidance — ADM hiked its profit outlook again after a strong Q2, powered by biofuels policy tailwinds and a 129% surge in Ag Services & Oilseeds profit. 🚀 Shares rose 2%+ on the day and are up 38% YTD, while the S&P 500 also closed at a fresh record high.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn conditions slipped for a third straight week to 61% good-to-excellent, falling below the five-year average as hot, dry weather raised yield concerns. 📉 Dec26 futures rallied Monday, gaining ~9 cents to close near $4.73/bu on crop stress and a strong wheat rally. 🌱 Soybean ratings held steady at 63% good-to-excellent, just above the five-year average, while futures pushed higher on crop concerns and fresh export demand. 🇨🇳 USDA confirmed flash sales of 488,000mt to China and 136,150mt to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery, following reports of 14-16 cargoes purchased by Chinese buyers last week. 🌾 Spring wheat conditions improved to 55% good-to-excellent, topping the five-year average, and winter wheat harvest reached 86% complete, right in line with normal pace. ⚔️ Wheat futures surged on continued Black Sea attacks and news that US-Iran peace talks were called off. 🏡 US farmland values kept climbing in 2026, with average farm real estate up 3.4% to $4,500/acre and cropland hitting a record $6,020/acre. 📊 Growth has cooled from last year's pace, but Corn Belt land remains the priciest in the country at $8,590/acre on average. 🚜 CNH expects the farm machinery market to rebound in 2027 as aging equipment from the profitable 2022-2023 years drives replacement demand. 📈 Shares jumped Monday after the company raised its full-year outlook on better-than-expected Q2 earnings. 🚢 Corn export inspections hit an eight-week high at 1.9mmt, up 23% week-over-week and 45% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean and wheat inspections lagged behind last year's pace, with China absent from the week's soybean loadings.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Grain Markets  Wheat futures fell sharply Friday as traders took profits after Thursday's Black Sea-driven rally. Corn and soybeans also finished lower, pressured by improving weather forecasts calling for widespread Corn Belt rainfall and cooler temperatures. 🌧️  🇨🇳 China Ramps Up Soybean Buying  China purchased at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday, marking its largest single-day buying spree of July. Traders expect more purchases ahead of trade talks later this fall, with China's new-crop commitments now nearing 3.9 million metric tons. 🚢🌱  📦 USDA Flash Sale  USDA also reported a flash sale of 252,000 metric tons (9 million bushels) of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2026/27 marketing year. 📈  💰 Funds Turn More Bullish  Managed money funds were net buyers of 70,000 corn, 30,000 soybean, and 10,000 SRW wheat contracts last week. Net long positions in both corn and soybeans climbed to their highest levels since late May. 📊  🌱 Corteva Raises Outlook  Corteva raised its full-year profit forecast, citing strong demand across key crop markets. The company said increased soybean acreage should support seed sales, though fewer corn acres and higher input costs could weigh on crop protection demand later this year. 🌽➡️🫛  🛢️ Iran Talks Resume  US-Iran peace talks are set to resume today after President Trump called off a planned military strike in favor of diplomacy. Hopes for a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent WTI crude oil below $79 per barrel in early Monday trading. 🤝📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc... 🌵 USDA's weekly Drought Monitor shows the worst conditions holding in Nebraska, South Dakota, Colorado, Oklahoma, and areas further west, with pockets also showing up in western Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. 29% of US corn areas and 26% of soybean areas are now in drought, though overnight rain hit South Dakota/Nebraska and radar is active this morning over MN, IA, MO, and eastern KS. Maps below 👇 🌾 Grains were mixed Thursday as traders eye a wetter, cooler Corn Belt forecast for early August. Nov26 soybeans slid 4 cents to ~$11.89/bu, Dec26 corn dropped 3.25 cents to ~$4.69/bu, and wheat closed higher but gave back early gains tied to Black Sea military escalation. Charts below 📊 🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans! USDA confirmed a flash sale of 132,000mt for the 26/27 marketing year, pushing China's new-crop purchases to 3.045mmt total against the White House's 25mmt/year target. Tracker below 📈 🏭 ADM is expanding its North American soy crush capacity at plants in Frankfort, IN, Deerfield, MO, Lincoln, NE, and Spiritwood, ND, mostly wrapping up by late 2028/early 2029. The upgrades add ~700,000 metric tons of annual crush capacity, translating to demand for well over 25 million bushels of US crops. 🌱 ⛽ Senate Republicans are set to add permanent year-round E15 sales to the farm bill, with Ag Chair John Boozman scheduling markup for Aug. 6. It's a scaled-down version of the House's May bill built on a Fischer-Capito framework, but the overall farm bill still needs 60 votes with Democrats pushing back on SNAP cost-sharing changes. 🚜

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean futures tumbled Wednesday as improving weather forecasts weighed on the market, with the Nov26 contract falling roughly 27 cents to settle near $11.93/bushel. Widespread rain is expected across much of the Corn Belt later this week, and corn followed soybeans lower with Dec26 down about 9 cents to $4.72/bushel. 🌾 Wheat futures are trading higher this morning amid escalating Black Sea tensions, after Reuters reported Ukrainian drones struck a grain export terminal at Russia's Taman port, causing significant damage. Ukraine also hit four Russian tankers in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, a notable development given Russia and Ukraine together account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports. 🚜 Safety nets are helping prevent another 1980s-style farm crisis, even as corn and soybean farmers face negative margins for a second straight year with 2026 costs pushed higher by the US-Iran war. Economists say crop insurance, federal programs, and lower debt levels are cushioning the blow, though relief will likely require higher commodity prices or lower input costs. 📈 Bunge raised its earnings outlook after a strong quarter fueled by its soybean business, with Q2 revenue surging 88% year-over-year to $24 billion. CEO Greg Heckman also flagged risk ahead, warning that fertilizer supply disruptions could hit Brazil's second corn crop and push some Argentine farmers to cut back on phosphate applications. 💧 Fertilizer prices kept sliding for a seventh straight week in late July, led by a 14% drop in UAN32 and an 11% decline in anhydrous, which fell below $1,000/ton for the first time since March. Most fertilizers remain pricier than a year ago, but two new plants under construction in Mexico could boost Latin American supply. ⛽ US ethanol production hit a 28-week high last week, climbing to 1.13 million barrels per day, up 3.6% week-over-week and 5.1% year-over-year. Stocks rose to 24.73 million barrels as margins stayed strong across the Corn Belt, ranging 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 US corn is pollinating under intense heat and drought, with the western Corn Belt hit hardest and some yield damage likely irreversible even if weather improves. 🌙 Warm overnight temps in July and August could further chip away at yield potential. 📈 Corn and soybean futures rallied Tuesday after Monday's USDA crop progress report showed sharper-than-expected declines in crop conditions. 🌦️ The market brushed off cooler, wetter forecasts and softer crude oil prices to keep the rally going. 💵 USDA says farmers need another round of financial aid, pointing to the $12 billion proposed in the House budget resolution. ⛽ Officials also highlighted new biofuel mandates as a boost to ethanol/biodiesel demand and crop prices. 🔥 Western Europe is bracing for its fourth heat wave of the summer, with temps up to 108°F and over 1 million acres already burned. 🐄 The heat and fires are hammering crop yields, water supplies, and the livestock sector alike. 🚢 Black Sea shipping risks are escalating, with Russia weighing machine guns, anti-drone defenses, and armed escorts for grain vessels. 🌾 Major export terminals are restricting truck deliveries, pushing Sovecon to cut its Russian wheat export forecast by ~4%. 🇺🇳 USDA confirmed another flash sale, with 197,272mt of corn sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 The sale adds to recent momentum in export demand for the upcoming marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Crop Conditions Slide as Corn Belt Bakes – US corn ratings fell to 63% good-to-excellent (down from 67%) and soybeans dropped to 63% (from 66%) as hot, dry weather hit the Corn Belt hard. 🌵 North and South Dakota are the biggest trouble spots, with corn there rated just 50% good-excellent across nearly 11% of US planted acres. ☀️ Driest July in Over a Decade—Corn country saw just 3.42" of rain in July, the lowest since 2014, paired with above-normal heat. 📉 Analysts warn trend yield is at risk unless August delivers timely rain and cooler temps. 🌾 European Wheat Pulls Back – Prices eased Monday as traders found Russia-Ukraine strikes hadn't seriously damaged key export terminals, while good harvest weather in Europe added pressure. ⚠️ Still, Ukraine pushed the UN Security Council for global action to protect Black Sea shipping routes. 📉 Corn & Soybeans Tumble Monday – Dec26 corn fell 14¢ to $4.74/bu and Nov26 soybeans dropped nearly 40¢ to $12.14/bu on easing oil prices and better weather outlooks. 🌾 Wheat also slipped, with Sep26 Chicago down 18¢ to $6.60 and Sep26 KC off 16¢ to $7.29. 🇨🇳 Fresh Soybean Sales to China—The USDA flashed a 132,000mt soybean sale to China plus another 126,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check out the China Soybean Purchase Tracker for the full picture. 🚢 Export Inspections Mixed – Corn shipments dipped 7.7% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybeans rose 9.3% to 348,850mt (though still down 18% YoY). 🌾 Wheat stood out with a 72% weekly jump to 394,785mt, up 36% from last year. 🐄 Mexico Border Reopening Boosts Meatpackers—JBS and Tyson shares surged (+10% and +5.7%) after USDA announced a phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports starting late August. 📉 Cattle futures tumbled in response, with many feeder contracts hitting daily limit-down.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Grains Sell Off Hard — Wheat, corn, and soybeans all dropped sharply to start the week after wheat posted downside reversals Friday. Ukraine is pushing new ship-safety measures with Russia and has called a UN Security Council meeting over attacks on grain vessels. 🛢️ Mideast Tensions Ease, Oil Slides—The US and Iran paused military strikes over the weekend, sending WTI crude more than $6/bbl lower this morning even though it's still up ~15% over two weeks. That pressure is rippling across the whole commodity complex. 🔥 Heat Dome Locks In Over the Corn Belt — A stationary heat dome is pushing temps 10-15°F above normal with brutal humidity across the Plains and Corn Belt this week. A brief cooldown may show up later this week, and a shift toward rain in the forecast likely helped trigger this morning's selloff. 💰 House Passes $12B Farm Aid Package — The $95B budget resolution squeaked through 216-214, pairing farm aid with $73B in defense/Iran-war spending. Farm groups are cheering the aid, but the Senate still has to pass its own version before anything's final. 📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest COT data shows managed money net buying 45k corn and 55k soybean contracts, pushing both net-long positions to their highest since early June. Wheat saw smaller buying too, with funds adding 16k SRW contracts. 🐄 Mexican Cattle Imports Set to Resume — The Douglas, AZ border crossing reopens to Mexican cattle August 24, with more ports to follow, after being closed since November 2024 over screwworm concerns. Disinfectant dip vats will screen all incoming cattle as the closest active case sits 325 miles away. 📈 Cattle Reports: Mostly Neutral — Friday's Cattle on Feed numbers landed right in line with expectations, so traders shrugged it off. The Cattle Inventory report was more mixed—a shrinking beef cow herd is bullish, but more replacement heifers lean neutral-to-bearish.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🛢️ Oil prices surged Thursday, with WTI crude jumping 6.2% to $92.19/barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea raised concerns about global oil supplies. Higher crude prices are also pushing fuel costs higher, with the national average gasoline price climbing to $4.09/gallon. ⛽  🌽 Grain markets were mixed. Soybeans extended their rally, with November 2026 futures gaining about 5 cents on support from rising crude oil prices and forecasts for hotter Corn Belt weather next week. Corn added about 3 cents, while wheat turned lower after early gains as traders took profits despite ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. 📈  🚢 USDA announced a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year.  🌦️ Drought conditions worsened across parts of the Corn Belt and Northern Plains as hot, dry weather persisted. Conditions improved in Kentucky, but drought expanded in the Dakotas, northern Illinois, southeastern Minnesota, and southeastern Nebraska. South Dakota even declared a statewide drought emergency. Current drought coverage includes 20% of corn, 18% of soybeans, 47% of winter wheat, 25% of spring wheat, and 44% of U.S. cattle. 🌾  🌾 North Dakota's spring wheat crop is coming in below USDA expectations. Crop tour scouts estimate yields at 48 bpa, well below the USDA's 58 bpa forecast. While dry weather has reduced disease pressure, prolonged heat and limited rainfall have trimmed yield potential, and additional heat could lower yields further before harvest.  📊 Weekly export sales disappointed again. Corn sales totaled 13 million bushels, soybeans 2 million bushels, and wheat 11 million bushels, with all three commodities landing at or below trade expectations. Mexico was the top buyer of corn and wheat, while China was the largest soybean buyer.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚢 Russia restricts Novorossiysk port traffic — Russia has imposed overnight shipping restrictions (midnight–5am) at Novorossiysk, its largest grain export port, due to rising drone attack threats. Grain rerouted from the Sea of Azov is making the port even more critical, though daytime operations continue normally. 🌾 Wheat futures surge on Black Sea tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~28 cents to $7.06/bu and KC wheat gained ~31 cents to $7.64/bu as Russian strikes hit Odesa region ports and infrastructure. Corn and soybeans also climbed on looming Corn Belt heat and rising freight insurance costs. 🇪🇺 EU grain production set to plunge—European grain output is projected to fall over 9% from last year, the steepest drop in two decades, as heat waves crush wheat and corn yields. Higher fertilizer/fuel costs from the US-Iran war pushed farmers to cut inputs and acreage, sending Paris wheat futures up ~20% this month. 🌱 ND wheat tour wraps up—Southern ND spring wheat scouted at 46 bpa (below last year's 50 but above the 5-yr average), while northwest/north-central areas came in stronger at 48 bpa. Acreage hit its lowest since 1969, with scouts surveying the fewest fields on record. 🛢️ Houthi attacks rattle oil markets — Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on two Red Sea oil tankers, sending WTI up ~3% to near $87/barrel. Trump threatened Iranian infrastructure if Strait of Hormuz attacks continue, and Iran vowed retaliation against US-linked energy facilities. 📊 CME downplays perpetual futures demand — CEO Terry Duffy said institutional clients (94% of volume) show little interest in never-expiring contracts, even as Kalshi pursues its own perpetual futures for precious metals. Duffy argued perps suit retail more than institutional hedging needs. ⛽ Ethanol production ticks up—weekly output rose to 1.09M bpd, up 5.2% week-over-week, while stocks grew to 24.48M barrels. Corn Belt margins stayed strong, running 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Iowa Weather & Crops — Warm, dry conditions gave Iowa farmers 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork last week, pushing corn and soybeans through key growth stages, though dry soil is becoming a concern as corn enters pollination. 🌧️ A more active pattern with widespread rain chances is on tap for the Corn Belt this week, though the GFS turned notably drier (and warmer) overnight vs. yesterday's run. 🌾 Wheat Rallies on Black Sea Tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~9 cents to $7.33/bu and KC wheat gained 4 cents to $6.78/bu after Russia banned vessels from anchoring at two Sea of Azov ports. 🚢 Analysts already slashed Russia's July export forecast 25%, while ongoing strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports have cut its export capacity by roughly a third. 🇺🇸 Grassley Pushes Market Solutions — Senator Grassley says farmers need stronger markets over more government payments, backing year-round E15 as a bigger long-term fix than the proposed $11B aid package. 💰 He's also renewing calls to cut production costs, pointing to his Fertilizer Research Act and pressing the Trump administration on why Brazil's costs run so much lower. 📉 Sovecon Cuts Russian Wheat Forecast — Sovecon trimmed its 2026 Russian wheat estimate to 88.3mmt from 88.9mmt on weak southern yields, down from last season's 91.4mmt crop. ⚔️ The downgrade lands right as Black Sea shipping tensions heat back up. 🥇 Kalshi Eyes Metals Perpetuals — Kalshi has asked the CFTC to approve perpetual futures on gold, silver, and platinum, building on its May approval for crypto perps. ⚖️ CME is, meanwhile, suing over whether these "perpetual futures" are really just unregulated swaps, with Kalshi's bitcoin perp alone moving $31.5B in 24 hr volume.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans surged to a two-month high near $12.26/bu as hot, dry Corn Belt weather and fresh Chinese buying fueled the rally. 🇨🇳 Renewed Chinese purchases appear to be the bigger driver, with US weather concerns playing a secondary role. 🌽 Corn futures added nearly 6 cents to settle around $4.73/bu, supported by weather worries even as a cooler forecast may cap further gains. 📦 USDA also confirmed fresh flash sales, including soybeans to China and unknown destinations plus corn to Colombia for 2026/2027 delivery. 🌾 Russian wheat export prices jumped 3% as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Black Sea shipping and cut July export forecasts by 25%. ⚓ Added tension in the Strait of Hormuz and a slower Russian harvest pace are compounding uncertainty over global wheat supplies. 📊 US corn conditions slipped slightly to 67% good-to-excellent while soybeans improved to 66%, both still running above their five-year averages. 🌤️ Spring wheat ratings fell to 53% good-to-excellent, but winter wheat harvest progress jumped to 74% complete, ahead of the average pace. ⛽ Gas and diesel prices keep climbing as the US-Iran conflict escalates, with regular gas now averaging $4.00/gallon and diesel at $5.11/gallon. 🛢️ WTI crude is up roughly 20% this month to $83.23/barrel, driven by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. 🚢 Corn export inspections stayed strong at 1.5mmt, up 57% year-over-year, while soybean and wheat shipments both came in below expectations. 🇨🇳 China made up about 22% of last week's export inspections. 🇨🇦 The Trump administration plans a 50% tariff on select Canadian imports starting August 19, covering dairy, alcohol, and cement—even USMCA-exempt goods. 🤝 Canada is downplaying the threat as familiar posturing, while Mexico remains the top buyer of US corn amid the shifting trade landscape.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾⚔️ Black Sea Grain War Escalates — Ukraine's strikes on Russian shipping and Russia's relentless attacks on Ukrainian ports have wiped out roughly a third of Ukraine's Black Sea export capacity. Wheat futures are exploding higher, with a deadly strike on a corn-carrying cargo ship near Odesa adding fuel to the fire. 📈🚢 🇨🇳🌱 China Keeps Buying US Beans — The USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Friday, including 340,000mt to China, 256,634mt to Mexico, and 110,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Chatter suggests more Chinese purchases could drop this week, while US corn sales to China remain a no-show. 🛳️💰 🚜💸 Iowa Farmers Feel the Squeeze — A new report shows Iowa's ag economy shrank 53% from 2022-2024 as corn and soybean production costs surged 37% and 36%. Nearly 1 in 5 Iowa farms are now financially vulnerable, even with strong land values and record cattle profits cushioning the blow. 📉🌽 📊 Funds Flip More Bullish — The latest CoT report shows big money managers snapping up 26k corn, 6k soybean, and 26k SRW wheat contracts last week. Corn's net long hit its highest since early June, while wheat's net short shrank to its smallest since late May. 💹🐂 🔥🛢️ US-Iran Conflict Boils Over — A deadly weekend exchange pushed the US military death toll to 17, with strikes now hitting civilian infrastructure like ports and bridges. Iran has scrapped the interim peace deal and is threatening to choke off oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. ⚓🚨

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🇧🇷 U.S.-Brazil Trade Tensions Escalate 🚨 The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports, effective July 22, citing unfair trade practices. While beef, coffee, and energy products are exempt, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and ethanol are not. A separate investigation could push tariffs on some Brazilian goods as high as 37.5%. 🇧🇷 Brazil is weighing a response but is avoiding tariffs for now. Instead, it is considering measures such as suspending patent protections for pharmaceutical products and agricultural seeds. President Lula has not yet approved the plan, and both countries remain open to negotiations, though the trade dispute could escalate. 🌽 Farm Financial Stress Continues 📉 U.S. farmers are expected to post a sixth straight year of losses in 2027. The American Farm Bureau Federation projects $32 billion in losses across major row crops, with corn, soybean, and wheat margins all expected to remain below breakeven. 💸 Weak crop prices and stubbornly high input costs—made worse by the recent U.S.-Iran conflict—continue to pressure farm profits. The Farm Bureau is urging Congress to provide additional financial assistance and advance long-term policies to strengthen the farm economy. 🌦️ Drought Update 🌧️ Heavy rain improved drought conditions across southern Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southeastern Missouri. However, dry weather allowed drought to expand in northern Missouri and northern Wisconsin. 🔥 The High Plains saw above-normal temperatures, although rain improved conditions in parts of the Dakotas and western Nebraska. This week's intense heat across the Northern Plains is expected to worsen next week's drought outlook. Current drought coverage:  🌽 Corn: 19% 🌱 Soybeans: 18% 🌾 Winter Wheat: 48% 🌾 Spring Wheat: 24% 🐄 Cattle: 44%📉 Grain Markets Pull Back 🌽 Corn and soybean futures ended lower Thursday as weak export sales and a wetter Corn Belt forecast pressured prices.  🌽 December 2026 corn: $4.64/bu (-6¢)  🫘 November 2026 soybeans: $11.95/bu (-7¢) 🌾 Wheat futures were mixed after Wednesday's rally. Ongoing attacks in Ukraine's Odesa port and the Sea of Azov continue to raise concerns about grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about one-third of global wheat exports. 🚢 Export Sales Disappoint 📉 Corn export sales fell to a marketing-year low last week at 315,000 metric tons (12 million bushels)—well below expectations and sharply lower than recent weeks. Japan was the top buyer. 🫘 Soybean sales totaled 188,300 metric tons (7 million bushels), near the low end of expectations. China was the largest buyer and purchased just over 1 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans, its biggest weekly purchase since January. 🌾 Wheat sales also disappointed at 235,100 metric tons (9 million bushels), with Japan again leading purchases.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Wheat futures rallied hard Wednesday as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions rattled markets, with Chicago wheat closing near $6.77/bu and KC wheat hitting $7.20/bu—both the highest since mid-May. Ukraine has reportedly lost about a third of its grain export capacity after intensified Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, and strength spilled over into corn and soybeans too. 🚢💥 🏛️ House Republicans rolled out a $95 billion spending package Wednesday, with $60 billion aimed at military spending and $12 billion earmarked for farm assistance to offset war-driven input costs. Critics are slamming the bill for lacking spending cuts, warning it could add $100+ billion to the national debt over the next decade. 💰📜 🌽 Excessive heat is raising red flags for US corn yield potential as 34% of the crop hits the critical pollination stage. A heat dome parked over the Northern Plains is expected to shift south later this week, easing stress up north but keeping things hot across the central and southern Plains. ☀️🌡️ 🫘 NOPA's June crush data showed US soybean crushing jumped 2.7% from May to 214.34 million bushels—a record for the month and above all trade estimates. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks sank to an 8-month low of 1.50 billion pounds as strong crush margins keep processors busy. 📊🛢️ ⛽ US ethanol production slipped to a 10-week low, down 4.8% week-over-week to 1.04 million barrels per day. Stocks climbed to 24.39 million barrels even as Corn Belt margins held modestly positive, ranging from 10 to 35 cents. 🌽🔋

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Russia Reroutes Grain After Black Sea Attacks — Russia is shifting grain shipments away from the Sea of Azov following Ukrainian strikes that disrupted a route responsible for roughly a quarter of its grain exports. Wheat futures spiked to multi-week highs as traders weigh the risk of further Black Sea supply chain chaos! 📈 🔥 Heat Wave Threatens South Dakota Spring Wheat — Triple-digit temps and warm overnight lows are stressing the state's spring wheat crop, especially in drier regions without last week's rainfall boost. With temps running nearly 6°F above normal and more heat on the way, grain fill and crop quality are on watch. 🌡️🌱 🚢 Brazil Debuts Ethanol-Powered Cargo Ship — Brazil just launched its first ethanol-powered container vessel, setting sail for China and opening the door to a potential biofuel revolution in global shipping. If ethanol captures just 5% of the marine fuel market, corn demand could jump by 1.5 billion bushels—a massive opportunity for ag producers! ⛴️🌽 💵 Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June — Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, well below forecasts, while monthly prices posted their biggest drop in six years thanks to falling energy costs. The Fed is still expected to hike in September, but easing prices have softened the odds. 📉 ⚓ Strait of Hormuz Tensions Ripple Beyond Oil — Escalating US-Iran tensions threaten fertilizer, sulfur, aluminum, and helium supplies—not just crude. Trump has dropped his proposed 20% toll on Hormuz shipments after pushback from Gulf allies, opting instead for future investment deals. 🛢️⚠️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🛢️ Oil prices spiked 9.4% to $78.14/barrel Monday as US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz reignited supply fears. Trump announced a US blockade to stop Iranian oil tankers, even as strait traffic had already dropped 52% week-over-week. 🚢 🌾 Russian grain exports face new uncertainty after Sea of Azov shipping restrictions followed Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels. The affected route handles roughly a quarter of Russia's grain exports, though no major disruptions have hit yet as harvest ramps up. ⚠️ 🌱 Soybean futures climbed Monday on hot, dry weather concerns across the Corn Belt, with Nov26 gaining 4 cents to close near $11.95/bushel. Corn followed suit on the same weather worries while wheat pulled back on profit-taking after Friday's Black Sea-driven rally.  🌽 📊 US corn and soybean conditions ticked up slightly last week, with corn at 68% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both above their five-year averages. Winter wheat harvest also jumped to 67% complete, well ahead of the historical pace. ✅ 🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans Monday, its fourth flash purchase in a week, pushing total purchases to nearly 4% of its 25mmt commitment. Cumulative new-crop purchases now stand at 1.072mmt, about 4.3% of the White House-outlined target. 🛒 🚛 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.5mmt, up 17% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. Soybean shipments rose sharply from last year while wheat shipments improved week-over-week but still trailed last year's pace. 📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Grain Markets Surge Overnight 🌾 Corn, soybean, and wheat futures opened sharply higher Sunday night on a combustible mix of weather worries and geopolitical shocks. ☀️ The US Corn Belt faces a dry, hot week ahead, adding fuel to the rally even as some early selling emerged this morning. ⚔️ Black Sea Conflict Escalates 🚢 Ukraine and Russia traded attacks on key grain export regions, disrupting shipping through the Sea of Azov and prompting closures of the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait. 🌾 Russia also struck Ukraine's major export ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Izmail, stoking fears over Black Sea grain flow. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Middle East Tensions Boil Over 🛢️ The US launched a third round of strikes on Iran over the weekend, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation against American allies. 🚫 Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and shipping traffic there was nearly nonexistent Sunday despite US claims it remains open. 📊 USDA Report Shakes Up Stocks 📉 Friday's USDA update slashed 2026/27 corn ending stocks estimates well below expectations and projected the smallest US wheat harvest in 56 years. 🌱 Soybean stocks held steady but still missed trade estimates, while soybean production got a bump. 💰 Funds Turn Bullish 📈 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers net buying 52k corn, 31k soybean, and 7k SRW wheat contracts last week. 🐂 It's a clear signal that speculative money is leaning bullish across the grain complex. 🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying US Soybeans 🛳️ USDA confirmed another 264,000mt soybean sale to China for 2026/2027 delivery, adding to last week's 736,000mt in flash sales. 🌱 The steady demand is a bright spot for US soybean exports. 🖥️ AI Data Centers vs. Farmland 🚜 The booming AI data center industry is competing with agriculture for land, water, and power, sparking concern among farmers and ranchers. ⚖️ Roughly two dozen states are now weighing legislation to regulate or limit new data center development on farmland.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn & soybeans dipped Thursday as milder weather and wider Corn Belt rainfall eased crop stress — Dec26 corn closed near $4.52, Nov26 beans near $11.82 🌾 Wheat bucked the trend, climbing on tighter US supply expectations 🌡️ GFS and Euro models both flipped cooler for the 8-14 day outlook, adding to the selling pressure 💧 Drought monitor update: improvement in NW/north-central Iowa, SE Minnesota, and SW Wisconsin; minor expansion in southern Illinois and NW Ohio 🇨🇳 Fresh flash sales — 256,000mt of new crop soybeans sold, including more to China; total confirmed new crop China soybean sales now at 672,000mt (2.7% of the 25mmt target) 📉 Corn export sales came in soft—down 23% week-over-week 🛢️ Record US biofuel mandates are pulling in a wave of European biodiesel imports — first shipments since December 2024—as domestic plants struggle to keep up No Snapshot video today—July WASDE is typically a quiet one, and I've got some prior commitments. Back to the regular lineup next week. 📊 Charts, drought maps, and the China Soybean Purchase Tracker in the video. 👍 Like, subscribe, and drop your yield/stocks predictions in the comments before the number drops!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 US farmers face a competitive disadvantage as a new NCGA study shows they pay significantly more than Brazilian farmers for corn and soybean inputs like seed, fungicides, and insecticides. NCGA is now pushing for greater price transparency to help level the playing field. 🌾 Grain futures pulled back Wednesday as easing heat forecasts and profit-taking sent corn, soybeans, and wheat lower. Forecasts still call for warm, dry conditions ahead, but the worst of the heat dome is now expected to shift west. 🇨🇳 China booked its largest US soybean purchase since November, buying 472,000mt for 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 delivery. Despite the renewed buying, US soybeans still face a pricing disadvantage due to China's added tariff and cheaper Brazilian supplies. 💣 The US resumed military strikes on Iran, hitting 90 targets as President Trump warned of more action and a possible port blockade. Iran has vowed retaliation and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears over global oil supply. ⛽ US ethanol production slipped last week to 1.09 million barrels per day, with stocks also declining. Corn Belt ethanol margins eased slightly but remain in positive territory.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn futures rallied to their highest close since early June as scorching heat threatens the Corn Belt. 📈 Renewed optimism over Chinese soybean demand also lifted beans and wheat higher. 🔥 A brutal heat dome is building across the western US and will spread into the Northern Plains and Corn Belt through next week. 🌡️ Triple-digit temps are expected in the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana, with little relief in sight through early August. 🛢️ Oil prices spiked after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI jumping over 2.8% before extending gains after hours. ⚠️ Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" in fiery comments at the NATO summit in Ankara. 📉 US farmer sentiment fell for a third straight month in June, with Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer dropping to 113. 💸 High input costs remain the top concern as confidence in the next five years continues to slide. 🇨🇴 USDA confirmed a flash sale of 105,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Colombia. 🌱 The sale adds to recent bullish demand signals in the soy complex. 🥩 Cattle groups are pushing the Trump administration to scrap a proposed tariff exemption for Brazilian beef. 🇧🇷 Brazilian beef imports have surged 41% this year, fueling tension over a possible 25% tariff and threats of retaliation.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China Returns to US Soybeans: China's COFCO purchased 300,000mt of US soybeans Monday, its largest buy in months, with volume potentially reaching 600,000mt as more deals finalize. 📊 Despite the move, China has only committed to about 2% of the 25mmt annual target agreed to last fall. 🤝 Xi-Trump Meeting on the Horizon: President Trump says Xi Jinping may visit Washington around September 24, coinciding with the UN General Assembly. 🏛️ The visit comes as the two nations navigate a fragile trade truce, with tariffs, Taiwan, and Middle East tensions still simmering in the background. 📈 Grains Rally on Weather & Demand: Corn and soybean futures surged Monday, with Dec26 corn hitting its highest close since early June and Nov26 soybeans reaching their best level since late May. 🌧️🔥 The rally was fueled by scorching Corn Belt heat forecasts plus flooding in Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, alongside renewed optimism over Chinese demand. 💰 Funds Turn Bullish: The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed money managers net buying corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending June 30. 📅 It marked the first time since late April that funds were net buyers of both corn and soybeans simultaneously. 🌽 Crop Conditions Steady: US corn conditions held at 67% good-to-excellent, unchanged week-over-week but still below last year's pace.  🌾 Soybeans dipped slightly to 64% while winter wheat harvest raced ahead at 59% complete, well above the average pace. 🔥 Record Overnight Heat Alert: CropProphet's data shows the June 29–July 4 stretch brought the warmest overnight temperatures on record for corn-producing regions since 1981. 🌡️ While daytime highs were merely top-4 historically, those scorching nighttime lows are now a key risk factor to watch as the crop develops through July. 🚢 Export Shipments Mixed: Corn export inspections beat expectations at 1.6mmt, up 5% year-over-year, while soybean shipments jumped 32% versus last year with China driving half the volume. 📉 Wheat shipments disappointed, falling 66% week-over-week and 74% below last year's pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Heavy rain triggered major flooding across Iowa, with over 15 inches falling in central areas and I-35 shut down near Ames. More storms are on the way this week, though the recent extreme heat is expected to ease as the heat dome shifts west toward the Plains. 🌽 📊 USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvement in the southern Corn Belt thanks to heavy rain, while drier conditions expanded drought in western Iowa and southern Minnesota. High Plains states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma also saw drought conditions ease. 🌾 🇺🇸🇨🇳 The US and China have agreed in principle to cut tariffs on agricultural goods, potentially making US soybeans more competitive with Brazil. Traders remain cautious though, waiting for real sales rather than just diplomatic headlines. 🌱 🛢️ OPEC+ is boosting oil production again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers post-ceasefire. WTI crude sits near $68/bbl, down nearly 40% since its April peak amid glut concerns. ⛽ 📉 US corn and soybean export sales fell sharply last week, with soybean sales hitting a marketing-year low. Mexico led in corn and wheat purchases, while China topped the soybean buyers list. 🚢

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 USDA Fertilizer Investment – USDA is putting $500 million into expanding US fertilizer production, targeting nitrogen projects in Louisiana and Nebraska to cut import reliance. 💰 Don't expect relief at the farm gate anytime soon though — most projects are years from completion, and experts say it's still far short of what's needed for real self-sufficiency. 🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybeans Rally – Wheat futures extended gains for a second day after USDA pegged this year's harvested wheat acreage at just 32.1 million acres, the smallest since 1877! 📈 Corn and soybeans rode the bullish wave higher too, both notching back-to-back gains. 🔥 Extreme Heat Hits the Corn Belt – Triple-digit heat indexes are scorching the Corn Belt and Plains, adding stress to corn and soybean crops in the driest spots. ⛈️ Some relief is on the way though, with scattered storms and slightly cooler temps expected next week. ⛽ Ethanol Production Climbs – US ethanol output jumped to an eleven-week high, up 2.5% week-over-week and 3.3% year-over-year. 📊 Stocks rose too, and margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive. 🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound – Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels, backed by US military support and alternative export routes. 🕊️ Trump says peace talks with Iran in Qatar are going well, which helped push oil prices lower. 📱 Robinhood Launches 24/7 Futures in Europe – Robinhood is rolling out round-the-clock perpetual futures trading in Europe, covering gold, silver, crude oil, currencies, and ETFs with up to 10x leverage. ⚠️ Ag commodities aren't included yet, but the move fuels concerns that 24/7 trading could eventually reshape the grain markets too.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday after USDA pegged June 1 stocks at 5.3 billion bushels, below every trade estimate, while 2026 planted acreage came in at 95.34 million acres. The Dec26 contract gained 6 cents to close at $4.36/bushel, while soybean stocks and acreage came in above expectations and wheat acreage fell well short of forecasts. 🌍 President Trump has temporarily suspended duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for up to eight months to ease shortages tied to the US-Iran war. The DOJ continues investigating major fertilizer companies over antitrust concerns, even as the administration works to boost domestic production long-term. 🔥 A brutal heat dome is gripping the Corn Belt and Plains, with heat index values hitting 100–110°F across Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, and Kansas. Crop stress is worst in the western Corn Belt and Plains, while livestock producers watch for heat stress in fat cattle. 💵 The Brazilian Real posted its worst month of 2026 in June, falling about 2.7% on a stronger US dollar and rate expectations. Inflation worries, falling oil prices, and election uncertainty added pressure, though some analysts see room for a rebound. 🌾 USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000mt of hard red spring wheat to Nigeria for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Total wheat sales remain down 17% versus last year. 🥩 CME is launching new beef trim futures covering 50% and 90% lean beef trimmings starting July 20, pending approval. The contracts won't change cattle or beef supplies but aim to improve price risk management and transparency across the supply chain.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn & Soybean Selloff Corn futures tumbled Monday, with the Dec26 contract falling nearly 12 cents to close at $4.30/bushel as traders positioned ahead of today's USDA report. 📉 Soybeans dropped even harder, with Nov26 losing about 17 cents to settle at $11.39/bushel, while wheat also closed lower. 🌡️ Heat Building Across the Belt Oppressive heat and humidity will grip the Plains and Corn Belt through the week, pushing heat index values into the triple digits with overnight lows barely dipping below 80. 🔥 Extreme heat warnings are already up across the eastern Plains and Corn Belt, with the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes at greatest risk for record highs. 📊 USDA Report Day USDA releases its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports this morning, with corn acreage expected to decline from March intentions while soybean acreage rises. 🧾 June 1 corn stocks are forecast up ~16% YoY, soybeans up ~4%, and wheat up 9% — our USDA Snapshot video drops within 15 minutes of the 11am CST release. 🌱 Crop Conditions Update Corn and soybean conditions slipped slightly last week, with corn at 67% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both still above their five-year averages. 🌾 Spring wheat improved to 59% G/E, while winter wheat held steady at a weak 26% G/E with harvest now 48% complete. 🚢 Export Inspections Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.8mmt, up 22% week-over-week and 29% year-over-year. 🌊 Soybean inspections jumped 54% to 419,124mt with China taking 16% of the total, while wheat inspections fell 9.6% to 358,253mt. 💰 Flash Sale Alert USDA confirmed a flash sale of 136,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Stay tuned for more updates as the trading week unfolds!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌡️ A heat dome is building over the Plains and Corn Belt this week, pushing temps into the 90s and triple digits with heat index values up to 110°F and raising crop stress concerns. Storms along the dome's edge should bring rain to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska/Kansas before cooler, wetter conditions return by week's end. 🌱 USDA finalized its Regenerative Feedstock Rule for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, letting farmers using regenerative practices qualify corn and soybeans for lower-carbon biofuel premiums. Farm and biofuel groups praised the move, though farmers will earn premiums through ethanol plants rather than direct government payments. ⚔️ US-Iran tensions flared again after US strikes on Iranian military targets followed Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, putting peace talks on hold even as US officials say negotiations remain on track. Trump warned of further military action if attacks continue, while WTI crude trades near $70/bbl amid the uncertainty. 📊 Friday's CFTC report showed big money managers growing their corn net short to 75k contracts (largest since early February) and trimming soybean net longs to 37k (smallest since early February). Wheat saw modest selling too, with funds dumping 1k SRW contracts on the week. 🌾 USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Tuesday morning, with corn acreage expected down and soybean acreage up versus March intentions. June 1 stocks are seen higher year-over-year across the board—corn +16%, soybeans +4%, and wheat +9%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 SOYBEANS & GRAINS RALLY: Soybean futures surged Thursday, with Nov26 closing at $11.57/bu — the highest since early June 📈. Corn and wheat also gained, lifted by soybean oil strength, firmer crude, a weaker dollar, and heat worries across the Corn Belt 🌡️🌽. 💰 FERTILIZER PRICES EASE: Retail fertilizer prices fell for a second straight week as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with urea down 12% and UAN32 down 7% 📉. DAP and potash ticked up slightly, but officials warn it could take months for supply chains to fully normalize ⏳. 📊 USDA REPORTS AHEAD: USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Tuesday morning 🗞️. Traders expect lower corn acreage, higher soybean acreage, steady wheat acreage, and higher year-over-year stocks across the board 🌾. 🌧️ DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE: Rain improved conditions in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and northwest Iowa, dropping Corn Belt drought coverage to just 13% (from 36% earlier this year) ☔. The High Plains saw some relief too, but widespread dryness still grips much of the region 🏜️. 🇮🇷 IRAN-US TENSIONS: Iran is pushing back on Trump's claim that unfrozen funds will be used to buy US ag goods, with the White House holding firm on its conditions 🚫. Tensions flared further after Iran allegedly attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about the fragile US-Iran agreement ⚠️. 🚢 EXPORT SALES MIXED: Corn export sales dropped sharply last week, down 36% from the prior week, with Mexico the top buyer 📦. Soybean sales jumped 50% above the four-week average on strong "unknown destination" demand, while wheat sales also rose nicely to start the new marketing year 🌍. ⚖️ BAYER WINS BIG AT SCOTUS: The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that Bayer can't be sued under state law for not putting a cancer warning on Roundup/glyphosate 🛡️. The decision could wipe out thousands of pending lawsuits and sent Bayer shares soaring as much as 20% 🚀.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers. ⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first formal request for Congress to legalize year-round E15 ethanol sales, framing it as a way to ease gas prices amid Middle East tensions. Unlike the House bill that already passed, Trump's version strips out the controversial Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions. 🏭 Illinois Soybean Crush Plant 🌱 Incobrasa Industries opened a massive new 170,000 sq ft crush facility in Gilman, IL, doubling capacity and creating 40 new jobs while securing demand for 7,000 local farms. The plant even includes a 50-acre solar array to help power operations sustainably. 📉 Grains Under Pressure 🌾 Corn and soybeans extended their losing streak Wednesday, with Dec26 corn near $4.35/bu and Nov26 soybeans at $11.35/bu, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak crude. Wheat also slid for a fourth straight session as bearish momentum builds across the complex. 🛢️ Oil Prices Sink 📉 WTI crude tumbled nearly 4% to $70.34/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes post-ceasefire, even as Trump calls for a DOJ probe into oil companies over retail prices. Gas prices are already down nearly 60 cents/gallon over the past month, though they typically lag crude moves. 🚢 Fertilizer Flows Rebound 🌍 Crop nutrient shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are surging back, with at least 16 vessels transiting since the Iran peace deal and volumes nearing pre-war levels. Urea prices are already easing as fears of prolonged disruption fade. ⚗️ Ethanol Update 📊 US ethanol output dipped slightly last week to 1.09M barrels/day while stocks climbed to 24.59M barrels. Despite the soft production, Corn Belt margins remain strong, running 30–50 cents positive, per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌡️ A massive heat dome is set to roast the Plains and Corn Belt next week, pushing real-feel temps above 100°F across the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. It'll dry out soggy fields but deepen drought stress elsewhere, with stormy edges threatening localized flooding and crop damage too. 🌱 Soybeans held steady Tuesday after two down sessions, with Nov26 parked at $11.42/bu. Corn slid for a third straight day to $4.37/bu on Dec26, even as fresh export demand offered some support. 💰 Input costs are easing, but farmers say it's not enough. Wisconsin growers point to lingering strain from Iran-war-driven fertilizer and fuel spikes, with some relief now coming from US-Iran peace talks—though next year's fertilizer costs already loom large. 🇨🇳 The US Soybean Export Council is leaning on quality to claw back Chinese demand lost to Brazil. Brazil now grabs over 60% of China's soybean imports versus just 23% for the US, a stark flip from a decade ago when both sat near 40%. ⚓ Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports near Odesa could slash the country's grain exports by up to 30%. With Ukraine accounting for a meaningful slice of global wheat and corn trade, exports are already running about 12% behind last year's pace. ⛽ E15 legislation cleared the House but faces a tougher Senate fight ahead. Minnesota farmer Tim Waibel says oil-industry opposition and an uncertain Senate timeline are the biggest hurdles, even as crop conditions back home look excellent.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇮🇷🌾 US-Iran talks could open the door to new ag demand, with Trump saying unfrozen Iranian funds would go toward purchases of US corn, soybeans, and wheat. Iran's negotiator claims a $12 billion unfreeze deal, though the US hasn't confirmed it, and recent Iranian crop demand has been minimal since a 2018 soybean buy. 🛢️📉 Crude oil kept sliding, with WTI falling over 2% to settle near $75/barrel, its lowest since early March. Progress in US-Iran talks and reports of Iran getting approval to sell petroleum products pressured the market, with traders looking ahead to a potentially reopened Strait of Hormuz. 🌽🌱 Corn and soybeans moved lower Monday, with Dec26 corn down ~4 cents to $4.40 and Nov26 soybeans down a penny to $11.42. Falling crude, a firmer dollar, and favorable Corn Belt conditions weighed on prices, though excess rain in some areas is raising minor concern. 🌧️🚜 Weekend storms brought rain to Nebraska but also hail and wind damage in spots. Coverage was uneven across the state, and despite the moisture, much of Nebraska remains in drought with more rain and cooler temps expected this week. ✅📊 Crop conditions held mostly steady, with corn at 68% good/excellent and soybeans at 66%, both above their averages. Winter wheat slipped to 26% good/excellent (well below average) while harvest is moving at its fastest pace since 2012. 💰📑 The CFTC's COT report showed funds turning more bearish on corn and soybeans last week. Managed money grew its corn net short to 49k contracts (largest since early Feb) and cut soybean net longs to 54k (smallest since early Feb), while adding modestly to SRW wheat longs. 🇧🇷🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage is set to hit a record high, per AgRural, up 0.9% to 121.09 million acres. It'd be the 20th straight annual increase but the smallest gain in two decades, as high input costs and tighter credit slow expansion.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China made its first purchase of new-crop US soybeans, snapping up 132,000mt alongside additional flash sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations. This comes after the White House announced China would buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually over the next 3 years. ⚖️ CME has filed a lawsuit against the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures, arguing the products should be regulated as swaps under Dodd-Frank rather than futures. CME shares have dropped ~9% since the approval as the new contracts have already generated over $5 billion in trading activity. 🌧️ Widespread rain (and some flooding) improved drought conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with just 13% of the region now in drought versus 36% at the start of the year. The High Plains, however, remains largely dry and continues to struggle. 🛢️ US-Iran peace talks made progress over the weekend with a 60-day roadmap and a new direct communication line, even as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. CENTCOM says the strait remains open, and WTI crude is trading lower near $75/bbl despite the back-and-forth. 🌾 Fertilizer prices are sliding as the Middle East war premium fades, with benchmark urea prices down ~50% from their April peak. Weak farmer demand and China's plan to resume exports are adding further pressure, though phosphate prices stay elevated on a sulfur shortage. 📦 Corn export sales rose 16% week-over-week with Spain as the top buyer, while soybean sales beat expectations at 424,900mt behind strong Egyptian demand. New-crop wheat sales came in softer, down 40% from the prior week, with Japan leading purchases. 🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report was largely neutral, with on-feed totals up 2% year-over-year even as placements and marketings ran below last year's levels. The bigger story remains the historically low US cattle herd, setting up for tighter supplies until rebuilding eventually kicks in.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG 🌽📉 A new report warns the US could lose around 30 million corn acres by 2050. Weak feed demand and an ethanol blend rate stuck at 10% are largely to blame. ⛽🚗 If the ethanol blend rate doesn't increase, the US stands to lose 6.6 billion gallons of ethanol demand by 2050 as overall gasoline use declines. The Senate is now preparing to vote on E15 legislation after the House narrowly passed a similar bill in May. 📊🌾 S&P Global Energy completed the study, and one US farmer summed it up simply: too much supply chasing too little demand. See graphics from the report below, and click the link to view the full report. 🌪️⚠️ Severe weather moved through parts of the Midwest last night, with tornadoes confirmed near Harpers Ferry, IA and Charleston, IL. Surrounding areas also experienced heavy winds and hail. 🌧️🗺️ A band stretching from central Iowa through central Illinois and into Indiana picked up 1"–3" of rain in the 24 hours ended at midnight. See rain maps below. 🫘🦠 Excessive rainfall across the Midwest and Delta has led to soybean disease pressure, including Rhizoctonia and Pythium. Parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Tennessee, and other states have seen over 8" of rain in the last 30 days. 📈🌾 Grain markets finished higher on Wednesday, with wheat futures leading the charge. The Jul26 HRW contract gained nearly 19 cents to close near $6.53/bu, while Dec26 corn gained more than 6 cents to close near $4.49/bu. 🇨🇳🫘 Rumors of Chinese interest in US grains helped support Wednesday's rally. USDA confirmed a flash sale of 372,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, which many see as a possible confirmation of that Chinese demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans lead on China optimism Soybean futures rallied Tuesday, with Nov ’26 up ~12¢ to ~$11.47 (two-week high) amid rumors China may return to the U.S. market. Optimism was also fueled by a potential September visit from Xi Jinping to Washington. Corn futures were mixed, pressured by weaker crude and favorable weather, while Chicago wheat rose on short-covering and technical buying; Kansas City wheat slipped. 🌎 USMCA talks add uncertainty to trade outlook U.S. and Mexican officials are meeting in Washington this week to negotiate the future of USMCA, focusing on agriculture and energy. Tensions rose after President Trump संकेत he may not renew the deal. Mexico and Canada accounted for $58.6B in U.S. ag exports in 2025 (over one-third of the total), making the outcome critical—especially as China remains an inconsistent buyer. Another round of talks is set for mid-July in Mexico City. 🌧️ Weather mostly favorable, with storm risks The Corn Belt is expected to see widespread rainfall over the next 5–7 days, supporting crop development. However, heavier totals in parts of MO, IL, KY, IA, and IN could cause localized flooding. Severe storms are possible today (damaging winds, hail, tornado risk), while cooler-than-normal temps are expected over the next 6–10 days. ⛽ Biofuels seen as key to demand growth A study from S&P Global Energy highlights ethanol demand as the primary driver of corn usage growth (≈83% since 2000). Expanding E15 nationwide is viewed as the easiest path to boost demand, though Senate resistance remains. Without stronger biofuel demand, the report warns of a long-term oversupply in U.S. agriculture. 🌽 Acreage outlook edges higher S&P Global Commodity Insights raised its 2026 acreage forecasts: corn at 96M acres (+800K vs. prior) and soybeans at 85.3M (+300K). That compares to 95.2M corn and 83.4M soybean acres last year. USDA last pegged 2026 acreage at 95.3M (corn) and 84.7M (beans), with updated figures due June 30.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Crop Conditions & Harvest Progress US crop conditions improved modestly last week. Corn ratings rose to 68% good-to-excellent, while soybeans increased to 66%, both slightly above average. Spring wheat saw a stronger jump to 55%, now above normal levels. Winter wheat improved to 27%, though it remains historically weak for this time of year. Harvest is moving quickly, with 25% complete—well ahead of both last week and last year’s pace. 📈 Markets Rally on Iran Deal Hopes Equity markets surged Monday on news of a preliminary US-Iran peace deal. The Dow hit a record high (+0.9%), while the S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Nasdaq (+3.1%) posted strong gains. Optimism around easing inflation and lower interest rate pressure drove the rally. Crude oil fell 4.8% to $80.75, though prices remain significantly higher year-over-year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, lingering uncertainty and congestion could delay a full return to normal shipping. 🚢 Fertilizer Shipments Still Constrained Fertilizer logistics remain tight despite the potential reopening of the Strait. Shipowners are cautious, and fertilizer cargo is being deprioritized behind energy shipments. A backlog of vessels—including 40+ fertilizer ships—continues to clog the route, with flows still down roughly 90% since the conflict began. While prices have eased مؤخراً, US fertilizer costs remain elevated versus last year. 🛢️ NOPA Crush Mixed but Historically Strong NOPA reported a May soybean crush of 208.8 million bushels—down slightly from April but still a record for the month and up 8.3% year-over-year. The decline was tied to seasonal maintenance downtime. Soybean oil stocks dropped sharply to 1.74 billion pounds, a five-month low and below expectations, signaling tighter near-term supply. 🚢 Export Demand Remains Solid US corn export inspections fell to 1.6 mmt but remain robust overall. Soybean shipments were strong at 522,687 mt, up sharply week-over-week and more than doubling last year’s pace, though China accounted for just 26%. Wheat exports disappointed at 334,292 mt, trailing expectations and running below last year. 🐛 Screwworm Outbreak Expands, Supports Cattle The New World screwworm outbreak has spread into west-central Texas, with cases now confirmed across multiple counties and species. Containment challenges persist due to limited sterile fly production, raising concern about further spread. The situation is indirectly supporting cattle prices, as movement restrictions tighten already constrained supply.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Geopolitics 🤝 The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war. The agreement includes releasing $25B in assets and lifting oil sanctions, while Iran commits to no nuclear weapons. 🚢 Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, and the U.S. will lift its naval blockade. More details are expected in follow-up talks, with the deal set to be signed Friday. 🌽 Grain Markets 🟡 Soybeans slipped (Nov ’26: $11.32, -2¢) under pressure from good weather and weaker crude. 🌽 Corn rebounded late (Dec ’26: ~$4.40, +1¢) but still faces headwinds from energy markets, favorable weather, and big South American crop expectations. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower on ample global supplies. 🌦️ Weather ⛈️ Severe storms swept the Corn Belt over the weekend, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some areas saw flooding. 🌡️ Temps stay above normal this week (not extreme), with more scattered rain ahead—heaviest in central and eastern areas. Overall tone remains bearish for grains. 📊 Funds (CFTC) 🐻 Funds turned net short corn (sold 121k contracts), the largest sell-off since May ’25. 🌱 Soybean longs shrank (sold 58k), now the smallest since February. 🌾 Wheat also saw selling (23k contracts). 🥩 Cattle 🏭 JBS is closing plants in Pennsylvania and Memphis, shifting cattle elsewhere. 🐄 With the herd at a 75-year low, tight supplies are driving record cattle prices and heavy packer losses. ⚖️ Short term: too much capacity vs. cattle. Long term: less capacity is negative for the industry.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Report: Nothing to Get Excited About The latest USDA report was largely as expected—minimal changes to U.S. stocks and only modest tweaks on demand. South American production was revised higher, keeping global corn supplies comfortable. Overall reaction: underwhelmed 😐 📉 Grain Markets Slip Soybeans, corn, and wheat all moved lower. Favorable weather 🌦️, weak crude oil 🛢️, and ample supply expectations kept pressure on prices. 🌧️ Weather: Mixed Bag Rain helped improve drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, but dryness worsened in northern Minnesota and remains widespread in the High Plains. Still a split story 🌦️➡️🌵 🛢️ Oil Drops on Peace Hopes Crude fell over 2% as optimism builds around a potential end to the war, but uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict continues to fuel inflation pressures 📉➡️📈 🚢 Export Snapshot Corn sales improved, soybeans disappointed, and wheat exceeded expectations. Notably, China is still absent from new-crop soybean buying, with a large share of sales sitting in “unknown” destinations 👀

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 📈 Inflation Hits 3-Year High — Consumer prices jumped 4.2% year over year in May, the largest annual gain since April 2023, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran war. With inflation outpacing wages and the Fed expected to hold rates steady next week, traders are asking, could grains rally sharply like they did in 2021-2022 if inflation accelerates?  ⛈️ Severe Weather Pounds the Corn Belt — Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes swept across the region Wednesday, with the active pattern expected to persist through Friday and flooding risks mounting. Temperatures are forecast to moderate by the weekend, followed by below-normal readings next week.  🌱 Soybeans Snap Losing Streak — After eight straight sessions of declines, Nov26 soybeans rebounded ~7 cents to settle near $11.39, lifted by crude oil strength amid Middle East tensions. Dec26 corn edged ~2 cents higher to close near $4.47, while wheat posted modest gains across most contracts.  📊 USDA Report Day — The monthly Crop Production and WASDE report drops today at 11am CST, with traders expecting no significant changes to US or global ending stocks. Corn exports could be revised higher, while frustration over the lack of Chinese soybean purchases raises the possibility of a demand cut—though it may be too early for the USDA to act.  ⛽ Ethanol Production Holds Steady — Weekly output came in at 1.1mil barrels per day, unchanged from the prior week, while stocks declined 1% to 24.45mil barrels. Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, running 25 to 60 cents positive per Reuters data.  🥩 Beef prices keep climbing—ground beef hit $7.06/lb in May (+13% YoY), and steak surged to $12.80/lb (+16%) as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over seven decades. With more than half of cattle country in drought, meaningful herd rebuilding is unlikely anytime soon — though analysts question how long demand can hold as inflation erodes purchasing power.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER SLAMS THE PLAINS & CORN BELT 🌪️ Powerful storms are sweeping from North Dakota to northern Texas with damaging winds, hail, and tornado threats before pushing east through the Corn Belt! Flood watches are up across KS, MO, IL, IN, KY, and TN, while heat advisories stretch from Minnesota to Texas. 🥵 🌱 SOYBEANS SLIDE FOR 8TH STRAIGHT SESSION 📉 Nov26 beans dropped another 4 cents to $11.32, the lowest since mid-March, pressured by friendly weather, sinking crude, and zero Chinese demand! Soybean oil strength limited the bleeding, while corn finished narrowly mixed and wheat closed mostly higher. 📊 🛢️ OIL TUMBLES DESPITE MIDDLE EAST FIREWORKS 💥 WTI crude crashed 3.4% to $88.20 even after Iran reportedly shot down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz! Traders shrugged off the escalation, focusing instead on Trump's claim that a US-Iran deal is just days away—plus rising oil exports through the waterway! 🚢 🌽 USDA REPORT DAY IS COMING! 📋 The monthly crop production and WASDE report drops Thursday at 11am CST, with traders expecting few changes to US or global ending stocks! Watch for a possible bump in corn exports and keep an eye on soybean demand as China's absence frustrates the trade. 👀 🐛 SCREWWORM FIGHT INTENSIFIES AS CATTLE RALLY 🐂 The USDA unveiled a new fly strain set to DOUBLE sterile fly production, though full capacity won't arrive until next summer as five new cases were confirmed in Texas and New Mexico! Cattle futures didn't flinch—live cattle surged up to $2.89/cwt, and feeders jumped $3.25/cwt—even as Mexico moved to halt most live US animal imports after the close! 💪

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn & Crops — US corn crop conditions held steady at 67% good-to-excellent, while soybeans dipped slightly to 65%. Spring wheat improved week-over-week, but winter wheat hit its lowest rating since records began in 1986. 📈 Futures Markets — Corn and wheat futures saw modest rebounds on bargain buying after recent losses, with KC wheat leading gains up 9 cents. Soybeans fell for a seventh straight session, pressured by favorable weather and weak Chinese demand. 🌧️ Weather — Parts of the Corn Belt received over 4 inches of rain in a short window, with active radar again this morning. Forecasts call for above-normal rainfall across corn areas in both the 1-7-day and 8-14-day outlooks. 💊 Fertilizer Prices — New Orleans urea has dropped 36% from its mid-April peak to $453.50/ton, now at pre-war levels as US-Iran peace talks ease supply fears. Seasonal demand weakness and ample domestic supply are adding further downward pressure. 🌍 Brazil vs. US Competition — Brazil's farming model is under strain as heavy reliance on imported fertilizer leaves growers far more exposed to the Iran-driven price shock. Many Brazilian farmers are now operating at a loss, potentially narrowing their long-standing cost advantage over US producers. 🚢 Export Inspections & Flash Sales — Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.9 MMT, up 11% year-over-year, while soybeans and wheat lagged at the lower end of expectations. USDA also reported flash sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations and 103,000 MT of corn to Japan.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn and soybean futures continued lower Friday, with December corn settling at $4.46/bu and November beans near $11.38/bu — both at multi-month lows. A stronger dollar, Wall Street weakness, favorable weather, and a lack of Chinese buying all weighed on prices. 🌧️ Weekend rains provided solid coverage across much of the Corn Belt, with more widespread precipitation expected over the next 7 days. Temperatures will stay above normal near-term before cooling in the extended period. 🇺🇸 President Trump visited Wisconsin Friday to address farmer concerns over rising input costs and limited market access. He expressed confidence that export conditions and overall farm economics will improve within the next three months. 📊 The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers were heavy sellers across the grain complex for the week ending June 2. Funds have shed 225k corn contracts since early May, while also selling 28k beans and 38k SRW wheat contracts. 💣 US-Iran tensions escalated further Sunday as Iran launched missiles at Israel, marking its first direct strike since the early April ceasefire. Peace talks remain stalled over disputes surrounding frozen assets and broader regional conflicts. 🛢️ Oil prices have stayed surprisingly contained despite the Strait of Hormuz closure now entering its fourth month, removing over 10 million barrels per day from the global supply. Record US exports, weaker Chinese demand, and SPR releases have offset much of the shock—though the situation remains fragile. 🐛 A second New World screwworm case was confirmed in Texas Friday, just 5.6 miles from the initial detection near the US-Mexico border. Canada announced temporary import restrictions on livestock from affected regions, though cattle futures pushed higher on the week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱📉 Soybean Futures—Soybean futures tumbled sharply on Thursday, with the Nov26 contract dropping nearly 26 cents to settle near $11.42/bu—its lowest point since mid-March. Favorable weather forecasts, weak crude oil prices, and lackluster Chinese demand all weighed on the market. 🌽📊 Corn & Wheat Futures — Corn futures slid 8 cents to close near $4.52/bu on the Dec26 contract, hitting its lowest level since late January. Wheat futures also finished lower, pressured by ample global supplies. 🌧️🗺️ USDA Drought Monitor—Hot and dry conditions across the Corn Belt worsened drought in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, NW Indiana, and NE Missouri last week. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw improvement, and thunderstorms brought some relief to parts of the High Plains. 📄 See USDA's drought PDF linked below. 🌾🌏 China Wheat Quality Concerns—Heavy late-May rains caused an estimated 4.8–10mmt of wheat to sprout in China's key growing regions, rendering it unfit for milling and redirecting it to livestock feed. China may ramp up imports of higher-grade milling wheat to compensate, while persistent wet weather is also slowing Russia's spring wheat planting to its slowest pace since 2018. 📦🚢 US Export Sales—Corn export sales came in at 883,300mt for the week ending May 28, down 13% week-over-week and 32% below the prior four-week average, with Japan as the top buyer. Soybean sales totaled 276,900mt — down slightly week-over-week but up 24% from the four-week average, led by China, though China has yet to book any new-crop US soybeans. 🐄🪲 Cattle Futures & Screwworm—Cattle futures rallied sharply on Thursday despite confirmation of New World screwworm in the US, with live cattle gaining up to $4.80/cwt and most feeder cattle contracts hitting the new $10.75/cwt daily limit. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins expressed confidence the case—the first in Texas since 1966—can be contained, though the risk of spread through wildlife remains a concern.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Grain futures extended losses Wednesday, with Dec26 corn falling ~7 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans declining ~11 cents to $11.67/bu — both hitting multi-month lows. Wheat also sold off sharply, with Chicago July26 dropping ~16 cents to $5.87/bu as favorable Corn Belt growing conditions weighed on the complex. 🫘 Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden expressed confidence that China will follow through on its commitment to purchase 25mmt of US soybeans annually for three years. However, China has officially purchased zero bushels of US soybeans for 26/27 delivery so far. 📈 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the recent rise in inflation transitory, attributing it to higher energy prices tied to the Iran war. April CPI came in at 3.8% — the highest since 2023 — while most economists expect the federal deficit to widen above 6% this year. ⛽ The Iran war has driven diesel prices to nearly double last year's levels in some regions, compounding elevated fertilizer and chemical costs for farmers. Rabobank estimates food prices could rise 4–6% over the next 12–18 months as input costs work their way through the supply chain. 🏭 US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.1 million barrels per day, up 4.9% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive at 20–55 cents based on spot prices of corn, DDGs, and other inputs. 🐄 The USDA confirmed a New World screwworm case in a calf near La Pryor, Texas — the first detection in the US cattle herd. The USDA has implemented quarantines and a 12-mile surveillance zone, though questions remain about containment capacity heading into summer. 🚢 USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. The sale offers a modest bright spot amid an otherwise bearish week for grain markets.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Corn futures fell for a third straight session with the Dec26 contract settling near $4.67/bu—its lowest since late February—pressured by favorable Corn Belt weather and no Chinese buying since the mid-May summit. 🌽📉 Soybeans lost 11 cents to close near $11.78/bu and wheat followed lower, with Chicago July settling at $6.03 and KC July at $6.35. 🌾 The White House is cutting tariffs on imported farm and construction equipment from 25% to 15%, effective June 8 through end of 2027, with a possible 10% rate for equipment using 85%+ US steel or aluminum. 🚜 Separately, the administration is proposing at least 10% tariffs on imports from 60 countries over forced labor concerns, largely replacing the current 10% global tariff expiring July 24th. 🌍 US farmer sentiment slipped for the second straight month, with the  Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer falling to 119 in May—well below last year's high of 158. 😟 A record 51% of producers cited high input costs as their top concern, and only 37% expect good times over the next five years. 💸 China issued lodging warnings for its wheat crop as harvest begins, mobilizing thousands of combines to limit losses. 🇨🇳🌾 The main worry is reduced milling-quality wheat, which could nudge the world's top wheat producer toward increased imports. ⚠️ CHS is closing or selling three grain elevators in southern Minnesota as farmers increasingly deliver directly to processors and river terminals. 🏗️ Expanded on-farm storage and more competitive pricing at larger facilities are accelerating the shift away from local elevators. 📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Initial US crop conditions came in below last year's ratings and analyst expectations across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Winter wheat hit its lowest good-to-excellent rating since records began in 1986. 📉 Corn and soybean futures moved lower Monday despite a rally in crude oil, settling near multi-week lows. Weak grain prices were driven by a favorable US Corn Belt weather outlook and ample global supplies. ☀️ A strong El Niño is increasingly likely to develop by late July, with an 82% probability of formation according to the US Climate Prediction Center. Historically, strong El Niño years have been associated with record or near-record corn and soybean yields. 🛢️ Middle East tensions escalated after Iran suspended peace talks with the US, sending WTI crude surging 5.5% to just above $92 per barrel. Israeli PM Netanyahu signaled military operations in southern Lebanon would continue despite calls for a ceasefire. 🚢 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.7 million metric tons last week, up over 5% from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were near the lower end of expectations but jumped 64% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of inspections. 🥛 A whey protein shortage is emerging as food companies aggressively add protein to a wide range of products, pushing prices up 30–40% in recent months. Because whey is a byproduct of cheese production, supply can't easily expand, forcing manufacturers to explore alternatives like soy and pea protein.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🕊️ President Trump says he's in no rush on an Iran deal but warned military action remains on the table if negotiations fail. A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension was agreed upon, though Trump reportedly sent back a revised framework with tougher terms. ⛽ Oil prices tumbled more than 9% last week on deal optimism, hitting a six-week low, while the national average for regular unleaded gasoline remained elevated at $4.34 per gallon. WTI crude posted its steepest weekly decline since mid-April. 🌽 Corn futures fell roughly 7 cents Friday, with the Dec26 contract settling at $4.75—its lowest since mid-April—pressured by weak crude oil and favorable Corn Belt growing conditions. Soybeans edged lower while wheat took a sharp hit on ample global supplies despite ongoing Plains drought damage. 🌧️ Weekend rains hit the western Corn Belt, Plains, and Southeast, but the central Corn Belt saw little to no moisture. The 7-day forecast calls for widespread Plains rainfall and decent coverage in the western and central Corn Belt, though the eastern Corn Belt may stay dry for another week. 📦 Weekly corn export sales came in at 40 million bushels, down 52% from the prior week, while soybean sales totaled 11 million bushels and wheat posted a marketing year low. Notably, China has yet to book any new-crop US soybean purchases. 📊 Money managers were heavy sellers last week, offloading 82k corn contracts, 14k soybean contracts, and 13k SRW wheat contracts. Since early May, funds have shed a total of 133k corn contracts. 🐛 A New World screwworm case was detected just 31 miles from the US border in a sheep, marking the closest confirmed detection yet. If the parasite enters the US cattle supply, it could further tighten already historically low herd numbers and push beef prices even higher.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️☔ Excessive rainfall across major agricultural regions in China is raising concerns about potential crop damage, with heavy precipitation expected to persist through the end of May and into early June. Prolonged wet conditions have delayed wheat development, flattened fields, and are creating favorable conditions for pests and disease. 🌾📉 🤫🌽 Unconfirmed rumors suggest China may reduce tariffs on grain imports, potentially increasing the likelihood of US purchases. A White House fact sheet from May 17th indicated China could buy $17 billion in US non-soybean ag products annually, and Bloomberg previously reported discussions around possible corn purchases. 💵🤝 📈🫘 Soybean futures rallied Thursday, with the Nov26 contract gaining nearly 13 cents to settle at $11.94/bu, while the Dec26 corn contract rose roughly 5 cents to settle near $4.82/bu. Wheat futures were narrowly mixed, as traders appear to have largely priced in poor US winter wheat conditions and are shifting focus toward ample global supplies. 🌍⚖️ 🕊️💣 The US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, though President Trump has yet to approve the deal. Key US demands include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to Iran's nuclear program, while Iran seeks sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. 🛢️📜 🛢️📊 Crude oil prices edged higher early Thursday following overnight clashes but faded during the session, with WTI rising just 0.3% to around $89/barrel. Ongoing military exchanges between the US and Iran continue to highlight the fragility of the ceasefire. ⚔️😬 🌵🗺️ The USDA's weekly drought monitor showed improvements in Kentucky, southern Ohio, and southern Indiana following heavy Ohio Valley rainfall, while conditions worsened across northern Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Iowa. Severe drought continues to grip much of the High Plains, with roughly 90% of Nebraska experiencing some level of drought. 🌾😰 ⛽📉 US ethanol production dipped last week but remained at a seasonal high, with weekly output at 1.09 million barrels per day — up 5.1% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.97 million barrels, and margins across the Corn Belt remain robust at 10 to 45 cents positive. 💪🌽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 India is ramping up urea imports ahead of peak planting season, but despite buying at nearly double pre-conflict prices, the country still faces a significant supply shortfall. Surprisingly, the tender announcement failed to rally global urea markets, as traders are more focused on potential Chinese export resumption and hopes for a Strait of Hormuz peace deal. ☮️ The US and Iran are struggling to finalize a peace deal, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction over current terms and warning that strikes could resume. Despite cautious optimism pushing WTI crude down to the high $80s earlier this week, overnight tensions have pushed spot prices back into the $90–91/bbl range. 🌽 Corn futures hit their lowest level in over a month, dropping nearly 5 cents to close around $4.78/bu as crude oil's sharp selloff weighed heavily on the market. Wheat posted its fifth straight day of losses despite poor US winter wheat conditions, with Chicago and KC contracts both settling lower. 🇧🇷 Brazilian farm bankruptcies have surged tenfold since 2021, prompting banks to tighten lending terms and seize assets even during bankruptcy proceedings. Consolidation appears to be the likely outcome, with larger operations absorbing smaller farms squeezed by low commodity prices, high rates, and rising input costs. ⛽ The year-round E15 bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate, as it's widely considered unlikely to pass as standalone legislation. The inclusion of a Small Refinery Exemptions restructure has complicated its path, though it could still advance if attached to the farm bill, defense authorization, or an appropriations bill.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn and soybean futures fell Tuesday on a favorable weather outlook, with drier forecasts expected to boost planting progress across the Corn Belt. Wheat extended its losing streak for a fourth straight session as Plains rainfall came too late to meaningfully help crop conditions. 🛢️ Oil surged nearly 3% after US forces struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran, reigniting Middle East tensions. Iran vowed retaliation and called overnight strikes near Bandar Abbas a ceasefire violation, though WTI futures are trading lower this morning. 🌾 USDA's latest crop progress report showed winter wheat conditions hit their worst rating since records began in 1986, with just 26% rated good-to-excellent. Corn and soybean planting both came in ahead of their five-year averages, signaling solid early-season field progress. 🌍 The European Commission cut its 2026/27 soft wheat forecast to 126.9mmt, down 6% from last season, amid a heat wave battering western Europe. Traders are also watching whether soaring fertilizer and energy costs tied to the Iran conflict could shift global acreage away from corn. 📦 US corn export inspections jumped 13% week-over-week and 11% year-over-year, while soybean shipments beat pre-report expectations. Wheat shipments came in near the lower end of estimates, running 35% below the same week last year. ⚖️ President Trump is pushing to keep the CFTC in control of prediction markets and crypto, as Minnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction market platforms. Critics are raising conflict-of-interest concerns given Trump's family financial ties to both industries.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🛢️ Oil prices tumbled Monday as Trump teased a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but Iranian officials quickly pumped the brakes on the optimism. Hours later, US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels in the strait, yet crude stayed lower while equities pushed higher. 🌽 Grain futures dipped overnight on the oil selloff but clawed back some gains, with the Dec26 corn contract notably holding key trend support. Keep an eye on the central Corn Belt — extended models show it staying bone dry well into the 15-16 day forecast period. 📊 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of corn and beans last week, offloading 2k and 10k contracts, respectively. Funds did flip to buyers in SRW wheat, picking up 15k contracts on the week. 🚜 Some farmers are calling for more financial aid as fuel and fertilizer costssurge,e tied to the Middle East conflict—though the real pain may not hit until fall input-buying season for 2027. Year-round E15 legislation is also back on the table as producers look for any relief they can get. 📦 USDA flashed some bullish export news Friday, with nearly 20 million bushels of corn sold to Mexico and 4 million more to unknown destinations. Soybean meal also moved, with 252,000mt sold split across the current and next marketing year. 🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report leaned bearish, with May 1 inventories up 2% year-over-year and April placements coming in 6% above last year. Drought across the Plains is forcing early cattle sales, even as the domestic cowherd sits at its lowest level in 75 years.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Brazil's Agricultural Crisis – Soaring fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war are squeezing Brazilian farmers, with fertilizer use expected to drop nearly 4% by year-end. Soybean acreage growth is set to hit its slowest pace in nearly 20 years, while corn and cotton acreage may actually decline. 🚜 John Deere Feeling the Pain – Deere's ag segment saw a 14% drop in Q2 sales, with US/Canada sales forecast to fall 15-20% this year. South America's outlook has also worsened dramatically, with sales now expected to slide 15% versus a prior forecast of just 5%. 🌽 Grain Futures Under Pressure – Corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed lower Thursday, weighed down by a lack of confirmed Chinese purchases and favorable Corn Belt weather. Grain markets are tracking crude oil closely, with futures ticking slightly higher this morning alongside a $2-3/bbl rise in WTI. 🌧️ Drought Monitor Update – USDA's latest data shows wildly uneven precipitation across the Corn Belt and Plains, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and parts of the Dakotas. A staggering 70% of winter wheat acres remain under drought stress nationwide. 📦 Strong US Export Sales – Corn export sales crushed expectations at 2.1 MMT for the week ending May 14, up 71% from the prior four-week average. Soybean and wheat sales also came in near the top of expectations, though China has still yet to book any new-crop US soybeans.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🛢️ Oil prices tumbled over 5% on Wednesday as Trump announced US-Iran negotiations are nearing a final stage, sending WTI crude to $98.26 per barrel. Analysts warn the market may be underestimating the long-term risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. 🌾 Wheat, corn, and soybean futures all closed lower, pressured by falling crude prices and uncertainty over China's confirmation of a $17 billion agricultural purchase deal. China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged expanded trade but did not confirm the figure cited by the White House. 🏦 The Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance, with officials suggesting rate hikes may be necessary if inflation — currently at 3.8% — continues to climb. Markets are now pricing in a 51% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, putting incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course with Trump's push for cuts. ⛽ US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.11 million barrels per day, up 12% from the same period last year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain strong, ranging from 10 to 40 cents positive. 🥩 Cargill locked out roughly 1,700 workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado meatpacking facility after employees rejected a contract proposal, halting slaughter operations that were processing around 4,000 head per day. This comes as President Trump calls on the DOJ to investigate major meatpackers for potential price collusion, with packers currently losing upwards of $300 per head.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Australia's wheat production is facing a major decline — dry conditions and soaring input costs from the Iran war could slash output by up to 41%, potentially dropping to just 21mmt. As the world's third-largest wheat exporter, this represents a serious global supply shock. 🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage growth is hitting a 20-year low — rising fertilizer costs tied to Middle East conflict are slowing expansion to under 1 million new acres for 2026/2027. Meanwhile, this season's crop is on track to be a record 180.1mmt. 🤝 China and the US agreed to cut agricultural tariffs — both nations confirmed a reciprocal tariff reduction framework, though specific products and dollar figures remain vague. As always with China, watch what they do, not what they say. 📉 Corn futures dipped while soybeans edged higher — the Dec26 corn contract settled near $4.98 as traders waited for more details on the China deal. Nov26 soybeans added 2 cents to close at $12.03. 🏭 The USDA is pushing to boost domestic fertilizer production—permitting is being fast-tracked, and tariffs on Moroccan phosphate imports may be removed to ease costs. An economist will also be hired specifically to monitor farm input prices. 📈 Treasury yields are surging to near 20-year highs — the 30-year yield broke above 5.18% as war-driven inflation fears and massive bond issuance rattle markets. Analysts warn the Fed may be forced to raise rates rather than cut them. 🌽 Lawmakers are calling for immediate farmer relief — Senator Boozman supports the USDA's long-term fertilizer plans but says near-term financial aid is urgently needed. He also renewed his push for a new farm bill and year-round E15 sales.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Grain and soybean futures surged Monday after a White House fact sheet revealed China committed to purchasing $17 billion in US agricultural products annually for the next three years — though key details and formal Chinese confirmation are still pending. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallied sharply as funds bought aggressively across the board. US winter wheat conditions continued to slide, with good-excellent ratings hitting their lowest level since 1996. The top five HRW-producing states are averaging just 9.6% good-to-excellent and 62.6% poor-to-very-poor, with the USDA pegging the HRW crop at 515 million bushels—down 36% from last year. Corn and soybean planting are both running ahead of average, and the forecast favors additional Corn Belt rainfall over the next five days. Brazil's inflation outlook is worsening, now projected at 4.5% by year-end—well above the central bank's 3% target—largely driven by higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Brazilian farmers continue to face steep borrowing costs, with private loan rates exceeding 17%. US corn export inspections dipped last week but remain strong on the season. Soybean inspections were up 115% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of the week's total. Wheat shipments fell below expectations. President Trump delayed a planned strike on Iran following requests from Persian Gulf allies, though WTI crude still settled up ~3% at $108.66/barrel. The administration extended a sanctions waiver on Russian oil sales for another 30 days amid ongoing pressure heading into the midterms.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 China Agrees to $17B Annual US Ag Purchases Through 2028 🇺🇸🇨🇳 China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural goods through 2028, following President Trump's meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week. 📋 These purchases are in addition to China's existing commitment to buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually through 2028. The two countries also plan to establish trade and investment boards, signaling closer economic coordination. ⚠️ However, China's commerce ministry described the agreement as preliminary, with no specific details provided. Click HERE to view the White House fact sheet. 💭 Our Take: Dollar-benchmarked agreements are harder to track than volume-based ones. The last time China bought $17B+ in non-soybean US products was in 2021–2022, both years tied to large corn purchases. While skeptics point to the unfulfilled Phase One deal, it's worth noting China did complete its more recent 12mmt soybean commitment in full. 🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall Update: Parts of the Corn Belt received rain over the weekend, with the largest totals in southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and southeastern Nebraska. Radar remains active this morning over Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. CropProphet (via Euro model data) projects 175% of normal rainfall over the next 7 days and 104% of normal during the 8–14 day period. ☔ 🫘 NOPA April Crush Data: NOPA members crushed 211.86 million bushels of soybeans in April — down 6.3% from March but up 11.4% year-over-year and a record for the month of April. The result came in below the trade estimate of 214.03 million bushels. Crush margins hit their highest level in three years, boosted by a soybean oil rally tied to rising crude prices amid the Iran war. 🛢️ End-of-month soybean oil stocks fell to 1.95 billion pounds, down 4.5% from March but up 28% from last year. 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (Week Ending May 12): Large money managers were net sellers of 49k corn contracts, though the net long position of 296k contracts remains the second-largest since February 2025. Funds were also net sellers of 5k soybean contracts and 9k SRW wheat contracts on the week. 📦 USDA Flash Sale: US exporters sold 155,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Italy for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump meets Xi in China—traders were hoping for a BIG soybean announcement, but the news fell flat… at first. Treasury Secretary Bessent says the existing 25MMT/year deal through 2028 is enough, sending soybean futures tumbling 24 cents to $11.84/bu. BUT—Trump hinted China will buy "a lot" of US farm products, and Trade Rep. Greer expects a double-digit billion-dollar ag purchase agreement over the next 3 years. Stay tuned. 👀 🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour delivers tough news — average yield projected at just 38.9 BPA, a 3-year low and well below the 5-year tour average of 45.5 BPA. Total production estimated at only 218M bushels, down from 338.5M last year. Drought abandonment could hit 20%. 😬 🌧️ Drought continues to expand across the Plains — Nebraska is in rough shape, with 94% of the state now under some level of drought, including 10% in exceptional drought. Winter wheat is taking the hardest hit, with 71% of acres affected nationwide. 🔥 ⛽ E15 expansion debate heats up — The National Corn Growers Association says expanded E15 sales could mean $5+/acre in net benefits for corn & soybean farmers. The American Soybean Association flip-flopped this week—first opposing it, then supporting it with conditions. 🌽 📦 Export sales disappointing—Corn sales down 50% week-over-week, soybeans hit a second straight marketing year low. Wheat was the bright spot, up 70% from the prior week. 📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Trump & Xi Meet in Beijing — What It Means for Ag Markets Trump and Xi sat down for a 2+ hour meeting in Beijing, and the agricultural world is watching closely. China renewed import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants 🐄, making beef exporters the early winners. Soybean traders, however, were left wanting more — no new purchase agreement was announced, sending grain markets mostly lower. Headlines are still developing, so stay tuned. 🌽 E15 Clears the House — But the Senate Fight Is Just Beginning The House passed year-round nationwide E15 sales 218–203 with bipartisan support. With ethanol trading at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case is strong — but oil-state senators and even the American Soybean Association have concerns. It's going to be a battle. 🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Paints a Tough Picture Yield estimates are coming in well below last year across both northwest and southwest Kansas. Northwest came in at 38.3 bpa vs. 50.5 last year. The final state estimate drops today—don't miss it. 🌧️ Rain Is Coming to the Corn Belt 1-2" of rainfall is on the way for much of IL, IA, IN, MO, OH, MN, ND, and SD—welcome news for newly planted fields. But temperatures are also running 4.2°F above normal, so it's a mixed bag for crop development. 🌱 EU Moves to Tackle Fertilizer Crisis Nitrogen prices in Europe are up 40% since December. The EU is expected to announce a plan next week to stockpile fertilizers and support affected farmers ahead of winter planting season. 🥩 JBS Profits Crater 56% Tight US cattle supplies crushed JBS's North American beef margins, dragging net income down to $220.6 million. Meanwhile, their Brazilian operations hit record Q1 sales. The meat giant also flagged rising corn prices ahead due to weather and fertilizer costs. ⛽ Ethanol Production Hits Seasonal High Weekly output hit 1.08M barrels/day — up 6.1% year over year. Margins remain healthy at 10–45 cents positive across the Corn Belt, even as stocks tightened to 24.87 million barrels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 US wheat production is headed for its lowest level since 1972 — the USDA's May WASDE pegged the 2026/27 crop at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from last year and 10% below trade expectations. HRW wheat is forecast at just 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957, as severe drought continues to devastate the Plains—and wheat futures hit their daily trading limits following the report. 🫘 US soybean production is projected at 4.44 billion bushels — the second-highest on record — even as soaring input costs tied to the Middle East conflict weigh on farmers. Both US and global new-crop soybean carryout came in smaller than expected, giving bulls something to hold onto. 🌽 Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, down 6% year-over-year but slightly above trade guesses. Both corn and soybean futures closed higher on the day despite the broadly mixed USDA data. 🤝 US and Chinese officials are deep in talks over Chinese purchases of American corn, soybeans, sorghum, and DDGs — with timing and volume still unresolved ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing tonight. Farmers want binding commitments, not social media posts, after recent informal announcements proved unreliable. 🏛️ Senator John Hoeven is pushing for $17 billion in additional farm aid, including $3 billion for specialty crops, likely as a supplemental disaster relief package. The support is aimed at keeping current producers afloat and bringing the next generation back to the farm. 📈 Inflation hit a 3-year high in April, with the CPI up 3.8% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs surging nearly 18% annually amid the Iran war. The national average for regular unleaded now sits at $4.50 per gallon.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 US winter wheat is in crisis — only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, the worst rating since 1996 (excluding 2022), while 40% sits in poor-to-very-poor condition. The top 5 hard red winter wheat states are averaging a devastating 59% poor-to-very-poor rating as drought grips the Plains. 📈 Grain futures surged Monday ahead of the USDA's big WASDE report and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pushed higher as traders bet on revived Chinese purchases and monitored worsening crop conditions. ⛽ E15 ethanol could go year-round nationwide if a House vote passes this week, backed by bipartisan support — but the oil industry is pushing back hard. With wholesale ethanol at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case for E15 has never been stronger. 🌽 The USDA dropped its first look at 2026/27 crop balance sheets today — and with ample supply and bearish headwinds, prices could face downward pressure. Initial corn and soy yield estimates are pegged at 183 bpa and 53 bpa, respectively. 💊 Mosaic is slashing phosphate production by ~10% due to sulfur supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict squeezing margins from both sides. Additional cuts could be coming if Middle East tensions don't ease soon. 🐄 Trump pumped the brakes on beef import quota removal after fierce backlash from ranchers and lawmakers—cattle futures whipsawed on the news. A similar policy last fall failed to lower beef prices and cratered the cattle market instead. 🚢 US corn and soybean export inspections remain robust, with corn up 30% year-over-year and soybeans up a stunning 49% vs. last year. China alone accounted for 52% of soybean inspections, and flash sales of corn to Mexico and South Korea were confirmed Monday.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands—including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway—"totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️ --- 📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5) 🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long.  🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k—the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long. 🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week. --- 📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP 🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu—on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu—supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns. --- 📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CST USDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside.  --- 🏦 FED & MACRO Goldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%. --- ⛽ FUEL PRICES National average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG 🌾 Wheat futures tumbled Thursday as KC HRW led the selloff, dropping nearly 20 cents, while SRW held up better with only a 5-cent loss. Rain hit parts of western KS and eastern CO, but many on the ground say it may be too little, too late. 👀 The Kansas Wheat Commission crop tour is coming up next week! 🌽 Corn and soybeans bounced back late Thursday after hitting daily lows, with Dec26 corn recovering from $4.83 to close near $4.895/bu. Nov26 soybeans also clawed back about 9 cents from their lows. 💣 Geopolitical tensions flared near the Strait of Hormuz as US and Iranian forces clashed Thursday. No ships were hit, and a ceasefire technically remains in place — but WTI crude is trading near $94/bbl this morning after bottoming at $89.85/bbl. Iran is expected to respond to a US peace proposal within days. 🛢️ 🇧🇷 Brazil's corn crop is shrinking. Agroconsult pegged production at 140.5mmt, down 7% year-over-year, with the key second crop on track to fall nearly 10%. USDA sits at 132mmt — a big gap between the two estimates. 🌧️ Drought continues to grip the Plains. 70% of US winter wheat acres are now in drought, and conditions deteriorated further in NE, KS, and OK last week. The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry, which helped planting progress. 🚢 A rare hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship has health officials monitoring dozens of passengers across at least 5 US states. The Andes virus strain is unusual because it can spread person-to-person. WHO says overall public risk remains low. 🦠 📉 Export sales came in soft. Corn sales totaled 1.3mmt for the week ending April 30 — down 15% week-over-week. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 141,900mt, while wheat sales also missed expectations at 78,800mt.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱💰 Fertilizer companies are cashing in on the Iran conflict. CF Industries and Nutrien both reported roughly 20% increases in quarterly sales as nitrogen fertilizer prices surged. Both companies also posted substantial gains in adjusted EPS. Since the conflict began, urea prices in New Orleans have jumped about 36%. 📈 Meanwhile, US natural gas prices haven't risen as sharply as other regions, allowing fertilizer producers to capture stronger profit margins. Despite elevated prices, fertilizer demand is expected to stay strong as farmers still need nutrients to maintain crop yields. ☮️🛢️ The US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement. Washington submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding outlining a plan to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade on Iranian ports. Iran has not yet accepted the proposal, with leadership indicating parts of the deal are unrealistic. 📉 The announcement sent stocks surging and oil prices tumbling—US crude fell roughly 7% to settle near $95/bbl. The nearby Jun26 WTI contract trades near $93/bbl this morning after peaking above $105/bbl earlier this week. That $12/bbl selloff in less than 24 hours weighed heavily on the grain complex. 🌽📉 Grain futures tumbled Wednesday on peace deal prospects. The Dec26 corn contract fell nearly 11 cents to settle at $4.90/bu. The Nov26 soybean contract declined 14 cents to close near $11.76/bu. Traders are watching next week's Trump-Xi meeting, though the likelihood of China returning to buy large volumes of US soybeans remains low. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower—Jul26 Chicago wheat fell ~11 cents to $6.17/bu, while Jul26 Kansas City wheat slipped 3 cents to $6.87/bu. ⛽ US ethanol production ticked up last week. Weekly output came in at 1.02 million barrels per day, up 1% vs. the prior week but down 2.2% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.02 million barrels, +1% week-over-week and +2.5% year-over-year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at 5 to 45 cents positive based on Reuters data. 🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's soybean acreage is projected to increase only slightly in 2026/2027. Rising fertilizer costs driven by the Middle East conflict are limiting expansion incentives. Additionally, the potential for a strong El Niño is weighing on acreage decisions — this weather pattern would raise drought risk in northern and west-central regions while increasing excessive rainfall risk in southern Brazil.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Oklahoma's winter wheat crop is on track for a historically poor season, with crop tour estimates coming in at 47.8 million bushels — nearly half the 10-year average and down 55% from last year, despite farmers planting 6% more acres. Dry conditions continue to grip the region, with 84% of the state experiencing some level of drought. The Kansas wheat tour is up next, where similarly disappointing numbers are expected. Meanwhile, the Texas wheat crop is battling both drought and a widespread disease outbreak tied to the wheat curl mite, with 56% of the crop rated poor to very poor. In Europe, corn futures surged to a near two-year high amid supply concerns, with French acreage expected to fall ~15% and Romania's crop projected to be its smallest in over a decade. High fertilizer costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure are a major driver. Back in the US, corn and soybean futures pulled back Tuesday on farmer selling and lower crude prices, while wheat futures slipped on forecasted Plains rainfall — though it's unlikely to make a meaningful dent in drought damage. Gas prices are surging, with the national average hitting $4.48/gallon — up $1.32 from a year ago — and diesel sitting at $5.66. Crude remains above $100/barrel with no resolution in sight on the US-Iran front. Farmer sentiment dipped in April per the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer, with input costs and availability remaining top concerns. And ADM raised its 2026 outlook, citing biofuel policy tailwinds and expectations of China returning to normal soybean buying in Q4.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Crude oil prices surged more than 4% Monday after Iran targeted US vessels and struck the UAE, reigniting fears that the four-week ceasefire could collapse. The move sent soybeans up 14 cents to near $11.97/bu and corn up roughly 6 cents to near $5.05/bu, with wheat also advancing on expected Plains rainfall. US winter wheat conditions remain historically poor—the top 5 HRW states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE) are rated just 14% good-excellent with 52% poor-to-very-poor. Nationally, 37% of the crop is rated poor-to-very-poor, well above the 5-year average of 27%. Corn planting reached 38% complete, ahead of the 34% average, while soybean planting hit 33%, well above the 23% average. On the export front, corn inspections came in strong at 80 million bushels — up 22% week-over-week and 25% vs. last year. Soybean and wheat shipments came in near the low end of expectations. China accounted for roughly 45% of weekly inspections. The US is urging China to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted China buys ~90% of Iran's energy exports. Trump and Xi are expected to meet May 14th. Meanwhile, China ordered its companies to disregard US sanctions on private refiners tied to Iranian oil purchases. Tyson Foods posted $260M in net income last quarter, up sharply from $7M a year ago, despite a $240M loss in its beef segment driven by tight cattle supplies. Chicken profit hit $505M. Ag Secretary Rollins flagged the administration's ongoing investigation into the big four meatpackers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Frost risk is rising across the Corn Belt this week as temperatures trend below normal, particularly in northern areas. Heavy rain is also expected to slow planting progress. Storm systems are forecast to bring rainfall across the central and southern Plains, though wheat yield damage in those regions has likely already occurred. The Northern Plains remain mostly dry but face below-normal temperatures and freeze potential.  📈 Corn futures rallied Friday on rising fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war, which traders fear could reduce yields. The July '26 contract gained nearly 6¢ to settle near $4.80/bu, while the Dec '26 contract traded above $5.00/bu for the first time this year. Cold, wet conditions across the central and eastern Corn Belt added to bullish sentiment. Soybeans and wheat also closed higher.  📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (week ending Apr. 28): Large money managers were net buyers of 83k corn contracts — the net long of 266k is the largest since late March. Funds were net sellers of 11k soybean contracts. SRW wheat saw net buying of 20k contracts, pushing the net long to 12k—the largest since June 2022. Managed money also holds a record net long in spring wheat and is near-record net long soybean oil. 🚢 Iranian grain imports have collapsed as vessels idle at sea rather than risk transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the US blockade. War-risk insurance costs are prohibitive. Iran, heavily dependent on imported feed grains for its meat and dairy sectors, is seeing staple food prices surge — eggs up 118% and bread up 80% since the war began. Rerouting attempts have not offset lost volumes.  🇲🇽 Mexico replaced its agriculture minister. President Sheinbaum named Columba López Gutiérrez to replace Julia Berdegué, who moves to an advisory role as the US, Mexico, and Canada review the USMCA ahead of a July 1 deadline on whether to extend the agreement 16 years or let it expire. Berdegué had also been leading New World screwworm talks with the US — an issue with little improvement. Mexico is the largest buyer of US corn. 🌽 USDA flash sale: US exporters sold 148,240 MT (≈6 mil bu) of corn to unknown destinations — 78,240 MT for 2025/26 delivery and 70,000 MT for 2026/27 delivery.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Corn futures slipped Thursday as favorable Corn Belt weather and crude oil weakness weighed on prices. The Dec26 contract settled near $4.94, unable to break through the key $5.00 level. Wheat saw sharp losses, dropping ~16 cents on Plains rainfall forecasts, while soybeans finished mostly unchanged. The USDA drought monitor showed meaningful improvement in the Corn Belt—drought coverage fell from 36% to just 11% since the start of the year. However, conditions are worsening in Nebraska and Kansas, and winter wheat continues to struggle under dry conditions and recent freezes. The House passed the farm bill 224–200, reauthorizing ag and food programs for five years. The E15 year-round sales provision was stripped from the bill after pushback from oil-state Republicans. A standalone E15 vote is now expected separately. Kalshi will not offer 24/7 grain markets after pushback from industry groups and regulators. Grain contracts will align with traditional exchange hours. Meanwhile, the CFTC is reportedly considering more frequent publication of its Commitment of Traders report. Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 1.6mmt — up 21% week-over-week — with Colombia as the top buyer. Soybean sales were soft at 258,100mt. Wheat sales came in near the top of expectations at 226,100mt, up 75% from the prior week. The S&P 500 closed above 7,200 for the first time, gaining 1% to a new all-time high. Strong earnings and AI optimism drove the rally, even as Q1 GDP came in at 2% — below the expected 2.2%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm bill votes are underway—amendments Wednesday night, final vote expected Thursday. The E15 fuel controversy nearly derailed it, but that plan's been dropped. Bipartisan support is building despite House Democrat leadership opposition, as farmers facing rising costs and bankruptcies need relief now. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is pushing to cut fertilizer costs with the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act, targeting tariffs on phosphate imports from Morocco — which controls over 70% of global phosphate reserves. The American Farm Bureau and American Soybean Association are on board. Oil surged nearly 7% Wednesday to $106.88/barrel as Strait of Hormuz disruptions look increasingly long-term. Trump says the blockade holds until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal — and Tehran isn't blinking. Markets are starting to price in a real supply shock, not just geopolitical noise. Wheat futures pulled back slightly after hitting a near two-year high, settling at $6.53/bu on the July26 contract. Drought concerns across the Plains remain, and the forecasted rain is expected to miss the driest areas. Corn and soybeans both closed higher. Bunge raised its 2026 profit outlook after a strong Q1 beat—higher soybean oil prices, solid crush margins, and rising biofuel demand driven by new EPA mandates are all tailwinds. Trade tensions and supply chain risk remain the key unknowns. US ethanol production dipped to 1.01M bpd last week, down 3% week-over-week. Stocks fell to 25.88M barrels. Despite the drop, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain solidly positive at 15–40 cents.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Illinois Historic Rainfall — Severe thunderstorms dropped a record 3.6" in Springfield and 2.1" in Peoria Tuesday, the highest single-storm totals since 2002. Flooding concerns are mounting across the region, with some corn and soybean growers already discussing replant options. 🌾 Wheat Surges on Plains Drought — The May26 Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts jumped 28 and 30 cents Tuesday to close at $6.49 and $6.97/bu, respectively, on intensifying drought stress across the U.S. Plains. Forecasted rainfall is expected to miss the hardest-hit western areas, where yield losses are likely already underway. 🌽 Corn Gains, Beans Slip — May26 corn gained roughly 5 cents to close near $4.65/bu — its highest since late March — supported by near-term Corn Belt rainfall, strong export demand, and a 3.7% surge in crude oil to near $100/barrel. Soybeans edged lower on technical selling and expectations of large South American supplies, while the Dec27 corn contract topped $5.00/bu for the first time. 🥩 Smithfield Margins Under Pressure — Rising diesel and packaging costs tied to the Middle East conflict are squeezing Smithfield's profitability, sending shares down roughly 8% Tuesday despite a Q1 earnings beat. The company plans to offset input cost headwinds through price increases and efficiency improvements, and also noted higher beef prices amid historically tight cattle supplies. 🌱 EU Rejects S. American Soy Shipments — Dutch authorities detected non-approved GMOs in four Argentine and two Brazilian soybean meal shipments, triggering withdrawals and potential disruption to the EU's largest soy suppliers. The situation could shift demand toward the U.S. and Ukraine as Europe enforces its strict GMO import regulations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Gas prices are climbing again, hitting a national average of $4.17/gallon, with analysts warning of $4.20 within days as oil hovers near $100/barrel amid the US-Iran conflict and near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency oil reserves worldwide are being drawn down rapidly, raising supply alarm bells. US winter wheat conditions remain historically weak — the top 5 HRW states are averaging just 13.8% good-excellent, with Nebraska's crop sitting at a staggering 65% poor-very poor. Corn and soybean planting are running ahead of the average pace. Wheat futures rallied Monday on crude strength, a weaker dollar, and dry Plains conditions. Chicago May26 wheat settled near $6.22, KC May26 near $6.67, with both HRW and HRS posting fresh highs. Corn and beans also closed higher, with Dec26 corn hitting fresh 1-month highs overnight. The Iran war is triggering a major fertilizer crisis—over half of the Middle  East's urea production has been disrupted, with roughly 30% of global urea trade affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Farmers worldwide may be forced to cut application rates, threatening yields and global food security. The Trump administration is expected to unveil a fertilizer investment plan this week, targeting both short-term price relief and long-term domestic production reshoring, while the USDA and DOJ investigate potential price gouging. US corn export inspections came in at 65 million bushels for the week ending April 23 — solid but down slightly week-over-week. Soybean shipments were up 37% vs. last year, with China taking ~39% of inspections. Wheat shipments came in near the top of expectations at 13 million bushels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 A 128-acre Iowa farm in Louisa County sold for $2.1 million at auction — roughly 35% above statewide and county per-acre averages — drawing 46 registered bidders from 12 states. A 79-acre tract of highly productive cropland led the way at $21,050/acre, reflecting strong demand driven by scarcity and farmland's track record of ~12.7% average annual returns from 1970–2021. 🌵 Severe drought is tightening its grip on the US High Plains, with 70% of the winter wheat crop now drought-stressed — the highest coverage since December 2022. Poor pasture conditions and wildfire losses are also forcing cattle producers to liquidate herds, with El Niño rains expected too late to help winter wheat or summer grazing. 🏛️ The USDA is doubling disaster aid payments this week, increasing the SDRP payment factor from 35% to 70% for approved 2023–2024 claims. The application deadline has also been extended to August 12, and the Trump administration is expected to announce measures to address surging fertilizer prices in the coming weeks. 📊 Large money managers were net buyers of 30k corn contracts and 19k soybean contracts for the week ending April 21, per the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report. Funds were net sellers of 3k SRW wheat contracts on the week. 🇮🇷 US-Iran negotiations were called off over the weekend after President Trump canceled talks that were set to take place in Pakistan. Iran is demanding the US lift its Strait of Hormuz blockade before talks resume, while the White House says the blockade will remain in place as maximum economic pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾📈 Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped. 🌦️➡️🌵 Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought. 🛢️⚠️ Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated. 🌱💰 Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs. 🚢📊 Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Lawmakers are pushing to overturn the EPA's biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 using the Congressional Review Act. The effort is considered a long shot and is unlikely to gain traction. 🫘 Soybean futures fell Wednesday as soybean oil volatility and fading rumors of Chinese buying weighed on the market. Corn edged higher on strong export demand and favorable rainfall forecasts across the Corn Belt. 🌾 Wheat futures turned lower after two days of gains as expected rainfall in drought-affected areas pressured prices. Cotton pulled back after hitting a near two-year high, with crude oil prices and widespread drought keeping the longer-term outlook supportive. 💊 The USDA is actively working to address surging fertilizer costs, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in daily contact with the White House. Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas through year-end amid global supply tightness tied to the Iran war. ⛽ US ethanol production dipped 7% week-over-week but remains above year-ago levels, with margins staying healthy across the Corn Belt. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.95 million barrels. 📦 USDA reported a third consecutive flash sale of corn this week, with 130,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. The weekly total now stands at 425,000 metric tons, or 17 million bushels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ✅ Corn & soybean futures recap — what's driving the move higher ✅ Trump extends Iran ceasefire — and what it means for crude oil & biofuels ✅ Senate eyes $15–$20B in additional farmer aid — but is it actually coming? ✅ Biofuel demand surging as crude oil climbs 30%+ since the start of the Iran war ✅ Kalshi & Polymarket moving into crypto perpetual futures — could this force CME's hand on 24/7 commodity markets? ✅ ADM crude corn oil spill on the Mississippi River at Red Wing, MN ✅ USDA flash sales — 12 million bushels of corn sold to Colombia and unknown destinations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 US winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate last week, with only 30% of the crop rated good-excellent — the lowest reading for this week since 2023 and third lowest in a decade. 📉 The situation is even more dire in top HRW-producing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where just 14.6% of the crop is rated good-excellent and nearly half sits in poor-very poor condition. 🌽 Corn planting surged to 11% complete, outpacing the 9% historical average, while soybeans rocketed to 12% planted — more than double the 5% average. 🌱 Spring wheat planting also matched its historical average at 12%, signaling strong early-season momentum across the board. 💰 The Trump administration is eyeing tariff revenue as a tool to boost domestic fertilizer production, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlining plans to expand capacity within 12–18 months. 🏭 In the meantime, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is pressing fertilizer companies for concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than open-ended talks. 🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly in the books at 92% complete, right in line with last year's pace, while favorable weather is supporting the developing safrinha corn crop. ☁️ However, CropProphet's Euro model data suggest Brazil's second corn areas could see just 47% of normal rainfall over both the 1–7 and 8–14 day forecast windows. 🇨🇳 China's agriculture ministry is projecting a 6.1% drop in soybean imports this year, with declines reaching 26% by 2035 as Beijing pushes hard for greater food self-sufficiency. 🥩 Pork, beef, and dairy imports are also expected to fall year-over-year, while total grain production is forecast to climb 5.3% by 2035. 🚢 US corn export inspections came in at 1.7 MMT for the week ending April 16, near the top of pre-report estimates, while soybean shipments hit 748,678 MT — up 34% versus the same week last year. 🌾 Wheat stole the show with inspections of 518,141 MT, a jaw-dropping 90% jump from the prior week, with China accounting for roughly 60% of total weekly inspections across all commodities.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 US Fertilizer Diverted Overseas — Traders are snapping up imported urea at the Port of New Orleans and flipping it to global markets as soaring international prices create a massive arbitrage opportunity. CME Gulf Urea peaked at $720/ton last week, and domestic farmers are feeling the squeeze with no relief in sight. ⚔️ Middle East Tensions Escalate—The US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend, throwing the fragile ceasefire into chaos despite Trump's claims of a near-finalized deal. WTI crude surged ~$5/bbl this morning to $89/bbl, though that's still well off last week's $106 peak. 🌧️ Planting Disruptions Across the Corn Belt—Heavy weekend rains soaked Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana—with some pockets seeing over 4" in 72 hours—throwing a wrench in corn and soybean planting progress. Meanwhile, HRW wheat country stayed bone dry and dealt with a brief freeze, adding more stress to an already strained crop outlook. 📊 Funds Selling Corn in Size — Large money managers dumped 58k corn contracts in the week ending April 14, bringing total selling since the late-March peak to 127k contracts. They still hold a net long of 153k contracts, with modest selling also seen in soybeans and SRW wheat. 🐄 Cattle Markets Rattled by Border Rumors — Cattle futures hit limit-down on speculation that Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would announce a reopening of the US-Mexico feeder cattle border — but no announcement came, with screwworm confirmed just 200 miles from the line. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report came in neutral-to-friendly, with placements down 7% and heifers still at 37% of inventory—signaling no serious herd rebuilding just yet.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Heavy rainfall is disrupting planting across the Corn Belt, with some Iowa farmers potentially sidelined for another week. Speculation about acreage shifts to soybeans due to fertilizer costs is not universal, as many producers pre-booked inputs ahead of the Iran conflict. 🏜️ USDA's latest drought monitor shows improved conditions in parts of the northern Corn Belt thanks to recent rains, but Kentucky, southern Illinois, and parts of Kansas and Nebraska continue to dry out. A staggering 68% of the winter wheat crop is now under drought — the worst reading since December 2022. 🌾 Wheat futures surged Thursday on fears of a weekend freeze hitting Plains winter wheat areas on top of already parched conditions. The Kansas City May contract climbed ~17 cents to close around $6.42/bu, its highest level in over a year. 💰 Agricultural groups are pushing the Trump administration for roughly $15 billion in farm aid as part of a Middle East supplemental spending package. The proposal includes $10 billion for specialty crops, while lawmakers are also eyeing the Homegrown Fertilizer Act to boost domestic production. 📦 US corn export sales came in strong at 1.4 MMT for the week ending April 9, up 14% from the four-week average with Japan leading purchases. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 248k MT, while wheat sales also came in near the low end of expectations. 🕊️ President Trump expressed optimism Thursday about a potential US-Iran deal, citing Iranian concessions on nuclear ambitions and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not publicly confirmed these terms, and many global leaders expect any formal agreement could take up to six months.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Fertilizer prices are climbing, corn futures are rallying, and Kalshi just entered the commodity trading game—here's everything moving ag markets this week. The Trump administration is weighing support packages for farmers dealing with elevated fertilizer costs, while the DOJ investigates potential price collusion in the sector.  Could Kalshi's new 24/7 corn, soybean, and wheat prediction markets actually shake up the CME? We dig into what that could mean for retail and institutional traders alike. On the crop side, early planting has been disrupted by heavy Corn Belt rainfall—but USDA data shows both corn and soybeans are still running ahead of the five-year average. May corn settled near $4.51, its highest point in over a week. Plus, ethanol production hits another seasonal high (up nearly 10% year-over-year). NOPA's March crush data sets a near record despite missing estimates, soy oil stocks hit a 13-year March high, and the S&P 500 closes above 7,000 for the first time ever. All that plus E15 legislation updates, Corn Belt weather maps, and ethanol margin charts.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Rising input costs are squeezing US farmers as fertilizer and fuel prices surge following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A recent Farm Bureau survey shows 94% of respondents say their financial situation has worsened or stayed the same compared to last year — with smaller operations facing the steepest challenges. Wheat futures pushed sharply higher Tuesday on deteriorating crop conditions across the Plains. Hot and dry weather has taken a toll, with 54% of Texas winter wheat rated poor to very poor, and Oklahoma close behind at 48%. HRW wheat country is expected to stay dry for at least another 7-10 days. Tensions between the US and China are heating up, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing Beijing of hoarding oil amid the ongoing Iran conflict. China has yet to purchase a single bushel of US soybeans for new crop delivery, despite earlier talk of major long-term commitments. On a more bullish note for South American supply, Conab raised its outlook for Brazil's soybean crop to a record 179.15mmt, with exports also revised to a record 115.4mmt. Optimism about peace talks sent crude oil tumbling nearly 8% Tuesday, settling around $91/barrel, with WTI trading near $92.50 early this morning. The Nasdaq jumped 2% and the S&P 500 gained 1.1% on hopes that Iran negotiations could resume within days. The USDA also reported flash sales Tuesday—316,000mt of corn to Mexico and 120,000mt to unknown destinations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. In today's update: The DOJ is investigating potential price fixing in the US fertilizer industry, with farmers asked to provide confidential input on the practices of Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. Winter wheat conditions hit their lowest rating since 2023 amid widespread drought across key HRW states. Soybean futures tumbled Monday on expectations of a shift in planted acres away from corn. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is rattling energy and input cost markets, with crude oil topping $99/barrel. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly wrapped up at 87% complete. And weekly export inspections showed strong soybean shipments — up 47% year-over-year — while wheat came in at the low end of expectations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 US BLOCKADES STRAIT OF HORMUZ 🚨 The US is blockading the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Pakistan — and markets are already feeling it. 🛢️ WTI crude surged nearly $8/bbl overnight, with the May '26 contract trading near $105. Grains caught a big bid too, with some contracts gapping higher at the open. 📈 💥 The blockade targets ships entering or departing Iranian ports, countering Tehran's plan to impose transit tolls on vessels. Any country that helps Iran? Hit with a 50% tariff. And Trump isn't ruling out strikes on Iranian infrastructure. This war is far from over. 🌱 Trump is also keeping a close eye on fertilizer prices, calling out the "fertilizer monopoly" on Truth Social and vowing to protect US farmers as costs surge amid the conflict. 📊 CFTC CoT Recap (week ending Apr. 7): Funds were net sellers across the board—47k corn, 23k soybeans, and 12k SRW wheat—largely tied to last week's ceasefire announcement. We're also launching a NEW Daily Fund Tracker chart starting today! 👀 🌽 Friday Futures Recap: Corn May '26 settled at $4.41—down 3¢ on the day, off ~11¢ on the week (4th straight weekly loss) Soybeans hit a 2-week high on a flash meal sale to Italy 🇮🇹 (Italy's biggest single US soybean meal purchase since 2019!) Wheat ended lower on ample global supplies & soft export demand 🌧️ Weekend rains mostly missed key HRW wheat areas in western Kansas and Oklahoma. The 7-day forecast doesn't offer much relief for those dry western zones. Crop ratings drop this afternoon — stay tuned. ⚡ Flash Sales Friday: 125,640mt of corn → unknown destinations 100,000mt of soybean cake/meal → Italy

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn is drifting lower despite a strong crude oil market, with funds trimming their net long position from recent highs. Ample old crop stocks and sufficient 2026 acreage estimates are keeping the bears in control. 🌾 Wheat tumbled to its lowest level since early March after a bearish USDA report showed surging US and world ending stocks. Drought remains a concern in HRW wheat areas, but the market is struggling to find bullish footing. 🫘 Soybeans are holding up better, with large money managers defending a hefty net long position near 190k contracts. US balance sheets could get tight with current acreage estimates — any weather hiccup could be a game changer. 🇧🇷 Brazil is eyeing a jump in its ethanol blend from 30% to 32% to ease consumer fuel costs amid rising global oil prices. The move would boost sugarcane demand and help mills struggling with oversupply and tight margins. 📊 USDA WASDE kept US corn and soybean ending stocks steady while raising wheat stocks to their highest since 2020. World corn stocks were revised higher but remain at an 11-year low, while world soybean stocks were trimmed below expectations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Markets on edge as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread 🚨 Iran is already alleging violations before talks have formally begun. Peace negotiations are tentatively set for Pakistan this Saturday, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude cratered 16% to settle near $94 🛢️—and Goldman says don't expect the low $80s until the strait fully reopens. The dollar had its worst day since January, dropping 0.8% as investors fled safe havens 💵📉. Markets are now pricing in ~25% odds of a Fed rate cut by year's end. Wheat got slammed—Chicago May down ~18 cents, KC May off ~12—hit by falling crude and rain forecasts across the Plains 🌾☔. Corn closed lower; beans bucked the trend and finished higher. Watch the western HRW areas — they may miss the forecasted rains. Super El Niño on the horizon ☀️🌧️ — models show it developing July/August, peaking in November, and lasting into 2027. Generally favorable for the Corn Belt, but watch for planting delays and disease pressure. USDA WASDE drops at 11am CST today 📊 — expectations are quiet, corn/soy stocks largely unchanged, wheat slightly lower. Post-report breakdown video coming shortly after! Ethanol production hit a seasonal high at 1.12M bpd, up 5% YoY 🌽⚡. Margins remain solid across the Corn Belt at 15–40 cents positive. Lots moving today—stay locked in. 👇

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 BREAKING: US-Iran Ceasefire SHOCKS Markets | Oil Crashes $22, Grains Tumble & What It Means for Farmers Just hours before planned US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, a last-minute two-week ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. Oil plunged nearly 20% overnight—but is the relief rally built to last? 💥 We break down everything you need to know: 🛢️ Oil & Energy — WTI crude cratered from $113 to $91/bbl overnight. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but Iran's proposed $2M-per-vessel transit fees add major uncertainty. Will prices stay elevated? 🌽 Grain Markets — Corn and wheat are under heavy pressure while soybeans are staging a recovery. With funds holding massive net long positions of 210K contracts in corn and 190K in soybeans, will traders defend or liquidate? 📈 Stocks Surge — S&P 500 up 2.5%, Nasdaq up nearly 3% on the ceasefire news. 💸 Inflation Watch — Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 3.4%—the biggest monthly spike in a year. Friday's CPI report will be a major market mover. 🌾 Farmer Sentiment — The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer climbed 11 points in March. Cautious optimism is returning to farm country. 🇷🇺 Russia Wheat — Argus raises its crop forecast to 88.7 MMT. More competition ahead for US wheat exports. 🇨🇳 China Soy Shift—China is rapidly cutting US soybean dependence, with fermented feed alternatives now at 8% of industrial usage and climbing. A potential 6.3% drop in imports could be coming. 📊 Stay ahead of the markets — like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss a daily market update! 🔔

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Crop Markets Update | Wheat Ratings Sink, Cotton Surges & Iran Tensions Rattle Markets Winter wheat is struggling — rated just 35% good-to-excellent, the lowest since 2023 and well below the 5-year average. 🌧️ Rainfall is on the way for parts of the Plains, but the west remains dry. USDA projects US wheat acreage to hit its lowest level since 1919. 📉 🌿 Brazil's soy harvest is 82% done, but dryness is threatening the second corn crop. Rain in the forecast this week could help. 🇺🇸 Cotton futures surged to their highest since December as drought grips 88% of US cotton areas—even as the USDA projects a jump in intended plantings. ⚠️ Geopolitical risk is front and center — Trump's Iran ultimatum deadline hits tonight at 8pm EST. Markets are watching closely. 📦 On the export front, corn shipments came in strong at 79M bushels — up 24% year-over-year. Soybeans beat expectations too.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Oil prices exploded Thursday with WTI crude jumping 11% to $111.54/barrel—the biggest single-day gain in 6 YEARS! 😱 Gas prices are already feeling the heat at $4.11/gallon nationally, and the Iran situation is FAR from over. Trump has given Iran until Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz... the clock is ticking. ⏳ In today's update we cover: 🛢️ Oil's massive surge & what it means for corn prices 🌽 Funds dump 22k corn contracts—but still sitting on HISTORIC net longs 🫘 Soybean funds add 13k contracts with China buying 🌾 Wheat funds go net LONG for the first time since June 2022! 🌧️ Rain returning to HRW wheat country—bearish relief incoming? 🌡️ Drought update—High Plains baking while the Corn Belt gets relief 📦 Export sales: Corn strong, beans soft, wheat hits a marketing year LOW 🥩 JBS strike OVER — 3,800 workers return as cattle market watches closely 💥 Russia-Ukraine tensions flare again with a ship sunk in the Sea of Azov CPI data drops Friday with inflation expected at 3.4% — don't miss it! 📊 👇 Drop your questions in the comments & don't forget to LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for daily market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 MARKETS IN CHAOS: Trump's Iran War Warning Sends Oil Soaring & Stocks Plunging President Trump dropped a bombshell in a primetime address—warning of intensified strikes on Iran over the next 2-3 weeks. Markets responded instantly: WTI crude surges past $107/barrel (+$7) while stocks sell off hard. We break down exactly what this means for commodities and your portfolio. 📉 GRAIN MARKETS GET WHIPSAWED Wheat futures took a beating Wednesday—Chicago May26 down ~19¢ to $5.98/bu, KC May26 off ~22¢ to $6.14/bu—as Trump hinted the Middle East conflict could be nearing its end. Meanwhile, western Plains dryness continues to threaten crops even as rain arrives in the Southeast. Corn and soybeans also slid on the war-end headlines. 🌽 CHINA MAKES A HISTORIC CORN MOVE For the first time in over 15 years, COFCO booked Argentine corn — a major signal of shifting global trade flows. China has booked ZERO US corn for the current marketing year. What does this mean for US ag exports going forward? 🇧🇷 BRAZIL BREAKS RECORDS StoneX raises its Brazil soybean forecast to a record 179.7 MMT, while the USDA sits at 180 MMT. Brazil's corn outlook gets a slight trim to 135.7 MMT. We've got all the charts you need. ⛽ ETHANOL UPDATE Weekly US ethanol production dipped 3.7% week-over-week to 1.08M bbl/day, but margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at +15¢ to +40¢ — a bright spot in an otherwise turbulent week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 US farmers are slashing corn plantings by 3.5% as the Iran war chokes off fertilizer supplies — but the USDA's own data may be nearly worthless with a record-low survey response rate of just 37.6%! Soybean acres are actually rising 4.3%, and grain stocks are up big—so the full picture is more complicated than the headlines suggest. 🌾 US wheat acreage is crashing to its lowest level since 1919, with spring wheat hitting a shocking 56-year low! Dry weather hammering Kansas HRW wheat regions and tightening supply forecasts are sending futures flying—watch this space closely. 🛢️ Oil had a wild March, surging a massive 51%—its biggest monthly gain since 2020—but pulled back 1.5% Tuesday as Trump hinted at a US withdrawal from Iran within weeks! Even if peace comes fast, experts warn it could take months for oil shipments to normalize due to heavy infrastructure damage. 🤝 The high-stakes Trump-Xi summit is still happening, now locked in for May 14–15 in Beijing despite the Iran conflict throwing a wrench in global diplomacy! China has been buying US soybeans at a modest pace this year but has yet to commit to the massive new-crop purchases that were rumored. 🚢 The world is scrambling to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to fertilizer shipments in a humanitarian deal modeled after the famous Black Sea grain corridor! With fertilizer flows blocked, global food prices are under serious pressure — and the stakes for food security worldwide couldn't be higher.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Farmers Ditch Corn for Soybeans — Here's Why It Matters The Iran war is reshaping American agriculture. With urea prices up 40% and fuel costs surging, US farmers are pivoting—corn acreage is set to fall 4.5% while soybeans climb 5.2%. Spring wheat? On track for its lowest plantings since 1970. 📉 Meanwhile, soybean oil is surging 🛢️, crude oil hit $102/barrel for the first time since 2022, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is keeping energy markets on edge. All eyes are on today's USDA Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11am CST—the stocks numbers could be the real market mover. 👀📊 #Farming #Commodities #CornMarket #Soybeans #CrudeOil #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarkets

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Let’s break down the biggest ag market movers right now 🌽📉 🌱 Biofuel Mandates Jump EPA sets record 25.82B gallons 70% of waived volumes reassigned Foreign feedstocks penalized after 2028 Supportive long-term, not bullish today 🏛️ Trump’s Farmer Push Pushing additional aid 💰 New SBA loan guarantees Targeting DEF rollback + lower equipment costs Trade talk strong… but soybean exports lag 📊 Funds Get Active Corn: +49k contracts (big long build) Beans: slight selling Wheat: shorts trimmed significantly 🌧️ Weather Watch Heavy Corn Belt rains incoming Could slow early planting progress HRW wheat may miss key moisture 🌽➡️🌱 Acreage Shift Brewing Corn acres seen down ~4–5% Soybeans up ~5% Fertilizer costs exploding (urea +40%) War impact not fully in USDA data yet 🚢 Export Check Flash sale: 105k mt soybeans Total sales still down ~18% YoY 👉 Bottom line: supportive policy + tighter inputs, but market already priced it in.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com 🌎 Markets & Macro Grains, oil, and global headlines all moving fast—stay sharp. 🌽 Grain Update Corn, soybeans, and wheat action you need to know. ⛽ Energy & Biofuels Ethanol, crude oil, and policy shifts impacting demand. 📈 What It Means Key takeaways to help you stay ahead of the market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. President Trump is headed to China 🇨🇳 for a high-stakes meeting with Xi, and markets are already reacting. Soybeans surged on the news, while corn and wheat followed higher amid fertilizer and acreage concerns. The EPA also issued another E15 summer waiver ⛽🌽, keeping ethanol demand supported—for now. But with plants already running near capacity, how much more corn can actually be used? Meanwhile, fertilizer prices are rising fast 💥, USDA funding is being cut 💰, and ethanol production/margins are improving 📈. 👉 Plenty to unpack across energy, policy, and grain markets. Subscribe for daily updates 👍 and drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 E15 Decision Coming? Another summer waiver may drop today, allowing E15 sales and supporting ethanol demand—not permanent, but still bullish short-term. 🛢️ Oil Still Wild Crude jumped, then pulled back as war headlines flip hourly. No real clarity yet—volatility remains high ⚡ 🌾 Fertilizer Concerns Growing Prices are surging, and many farmers haven’t locked supply. Washington is scrambling for solutions ahead of Friday’s ag event. 🌍 Global Supply Tightening Russia just restricted exports, and Australia is cutting wheat acres—potential supply issues ahead. 👉 Energy + fertilizer + policy = big market risk (and opportunity) 👍 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re seeing locally!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down a wild mix of geopolitics 🌍, energy markets 🛢️, biofuels policy 🌽, and key ag fundamentals 🌾👇 🛢️ Oil Market Whiplash Oil prices dropped sharply Monday as optimism grew that the Iran conflict could cool off. WTI crude plunged more than 10%, hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks after President Trump signaled progress in talks and ordered a temporary pause on strikes. That said, the situation remains volatile—Iran denies direct talks, and attacks in the region continue. Bottom line: headlines are still driving massive swings in energy and commodity markets. 🌽 Biofuels Policy Incoming The Trump administration is expected to roll out new biofuel blending quotas by month-end, likely tied to Friday’s White House agriculture event. EPA head Lee Zeldin confirmed updated Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requirements are coming soon, with more rulemaking to follow. Key issues include diesel volumes, RIN values, and blending mandates—plus ongoing debate over year-round E15. This is a big one for corn demand and ethanol margins. 🌾 Wheat Weather Watch HRW wheat areas across the Plains remain dry, with little relief expected over the next 10 days. Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and the southern Plains are all under pressure, though longer-range models hint at rain returning. Current Kansas ratings sit at 46% good/excellent and 19% poor/very poor. Weather risk is building—but forecasts beyond a week are always shaky. 🚢 Strong Export Demand US export activity was solid last week: Corn shipments hit 1.7 mmt (strong vs. last year) Soybeans came in at 1.1 mmt, with China taking 60% Wheat exceeded expectations at 458k mt Demand continues to hold up well, especially on the corn and soybean side. 🐖 China Demand Concerns China’s hog sector is under serious pressure. Pork prices have collapsed to multi-year lows, and producer margins are shrinking fast. Weak consumer demand and rising feed costs are forcing Beijing to step in—cutting herd sizes and buying pork for reserves. This has major implications for global feed demand, especially soymeal. 🇧🇷 Brazil Harvest Update Brazil’s soybean harvest is lagging, now at 68% complete vs. 80% last year. Dry weather helped recently, but rains are coming back into the forecast. Meanwhile, second crop corn planting is nearly finished at 97%. Timing and logistics here remain critical for global supply flows. ⚡ Flash Sales USDA confirmed fresh demand: 102,000 mt of corn sold to Mexico (new crop) 161,120 mt of soybeans sold to Mexico (new crop) Steady demand continues to show up on the daily wire. 👍 If you’re in agriculture, these moving pieces matter—energy, policy, weather, and global demand are all tightly connected right now.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ⚠️ Middle East tensions are escalating fast… and markets are watching closely. 🌍 Geopolitics Trump issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz—threatening strikes on power infrastructure if it’s not reopened. Iran pushes back, raising fears of broader conflict and long-term shipping disruptions. 🛢️ Energy vs. Grains Crude oil holding firm despite the headlines, while grain markets slipped Friday. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pressured by profit-taking, a stronger dollar, and improving US weather outlooks. 📊 Fund Positioning Funds keep piling into corn (largest net long since Feb ‘25), trimming soybeans, and reducing wheat shorts. Positioning remains a key driver heading into spring. 🌱 Global Ag Developments China eases restrictions on Brazilian soybeans after recent trade tensions—potentially smoothing export flows during peak shipment season. ⛽ Diesel & Inflation Diesel prices surge above $5—fueling inflation concerns across agriculture, trucking, and the broader economy. 🐄 Cattle Market Cattle on Feed report leans bearish with larger-than-expected placements, though context matters vs. last year’s low numbers. 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are grain markets too cheap here?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 War & Bullish Setup Bank of America says ag markets may be underpricing the Iran war. Prolonged conflict could tighten fertilizer supplies and spark a new grain bull cycle 🌽📈 ⛽ Energy Shock = Fertilizer Risk Damage to Qatar LNG + soaring nat gas prices = major nitrogen concerns. Urea futures hit multi-year highs… big implications for crop costs ⚠️ 🌽 Grains Higher Corn, beans, and wheat all pushed higher Thursday on energy + fertilizer fears. New calendar-year highs in corn contracts 🚜 💰 Funds Still Long Funds were net buyers again—holding large long positions in both corn and soybeans 👀 🛢️ Oil Surge Crude spiked sharply this week amid Middle East attacks. Higher energy = higher input costs + biofuel support 🔥 🏛️ Fertilizer Bill New bipartisan “Fertilizer Transparency Act” aims to improve pricing visibility and boost domestic production 🇺🇸 🌧️ Weather Update Better moisture in the Corn Belt, but worsening drought in the Plains. Mixed outlook heading into planting season 🌦️ 👉 If you’re watching inputs, energy, and geopolitics… this could get interesting fast. 👍 Like & subscribe for more daily grain market updates 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—bull market coming?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Wheat Leads the Rally Wheat futures surged on weather concerns across the Plains—winter damage risk + hot/dry forecasts gave bulls a reason to step in. 🌽 Corn & Beans Follow + Funds Active Corn and soybeans moved higher alongside crude oil 📈 Funds were aggressive buyers again—corn and beans both sitting with big net long positions. 📊 Acreage Debate Heating Up Private estimates are creeping higher on corn acres, but fertilizer costs could throw a wrench into everything. March 31 numbers? Probably noisy. June will matter more. 🚢 Jones Act Waived The administration temporarily lifted shipping restrictions to ease fertilizer and fuel logistics—but it may be too late to impact spring costs. 🌍 China Trip Delayed Trump’s China visit pushed back amid geopolitical tensions—trade talks (and ag demand expectations) remain in limbo. ⛽ Ethanol Slips Production dipped, stocks rose, and margins are hovering around breakeven across the Corn Belt. 💵 Fed Holds Rates Steady No rate change. Markets slid after the announcement as uncertainty tied to global conflict remains high.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 White House Biofuels Event & RVO Decision President Trump is hosting a major ag event next week with farmers and biofuel producers 🇺🇸 Comes just ahead of the 2026–2027 blending mandate decision Potential increase in mandates = stronger demand for ethanol & biodiesel ⚠️ Refiners pushing back, warning of higher fuel prices Timing matters with Middle East conflict already pressuring energy markets 💸 Rising Farm Costs Becoming Political War-driven input inflation is hitting farmers hard 🚜 Fertilizer + fuel costs surging right before planting Margins already tight due to weak grain prices Could impact rural sentiment ahead of midterms 🗳️ Higher farm costs = potential food inflation pressure 🍔 🌾 Wheat Market Update Wheat futures slipped Tuesday 📉 Chicago wheat ~ $5.90, KC wheat ~ $6.07 Cold temps + ongoing dryness in the Plains Forecast: hot + dry → then cooldown Russia still undercutting U.S. on price 🌍 🌍 Trump Delays China Trip Trade tensions stay in focus 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Visit pushed back 5–6 weeks Trump ties trip to China helping reopen Hormuz Treasury says delay is logistical ⏳ Delays progress on ag trade talks (soybeans!) Meanwhile: Strait of Hormuz effectively closed 🚢 Iranian attacks continue across the region Energy markets remain on edge 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Export Problems Brazil facing fresh export disruptions 🚫 China tightening inspection standards Issues: insects, damage, treated beans Cargill paused some shipments Local soybean bids have collapsed in some areas Officials heading to China to try and fix it 🤝 👉 This could shift demand back toward the U.S. if it drags on

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Grain markets got slammed Monday, with soybeans limit down after President Trump suggested he may delay his meeting with Xi Jinping. Corn and wheat also moved sharply lower, while expanded soybean limits point to more volatility ahead. 🚛 Brazil’s soybean freight costs are rising fast as higher oil prices push diesel prices higher during peak export season. That’s creating logistical stress, hurting bids, and raising the risk that buyers shift demand to the US or Argentina. 🛢️ Crude oil pulled back Monday but bounced overnight as Middle East attacks continued and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remained high. At the same time, China is tightening fertilizer exports, adding even more fuel to an already bullish global fertilizer story. 🫘 NOPA reported a record February soybean crush, while soybean oil stocks jumped to the highest level in years. Export inspections were solid overall, with soybean shipments beating expectations and China taking the majority of the load. 🥩 In the cattle market, a strike at JBS in Greeley adds another wrinkle to an already tight beef supply situation. Thanks for watching—subscribe, like this video, and drop your thoughts in the comments below.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Grain Markets & Policy Update President Trump told the Financial Times he “may delay” a summit with Xi Jinping amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials continued this weekend, and China reiterated its commitment to 25 mmt of U.S. soybean purchases annually for the next three years, though soybeans fell early Monday after comments about “non-soybean row crops.” 📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC) Speculative money continues to pile into ag markets. Funds bought 147k corn contracts, pushing the net long to the largest since March 2025. Funds also added to soybeans and SRW wheat, and private estimates suggest funds may have been record net long soybeans by Friday’s close. 🌾 Wheat Weather Concerns Chicago wheat rallied Friday on fund buying, higher crude oil, and drought concerns across the Plains. Forecasts show little rainfall in HRW regions over the next two weeks while cold temperatures threaten SRW areas this week. 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Harvest Brazil’s harvest is about 57% complete, behind last year but near the five-year average. Conab trimmed its crop estimate slightly to 177.85 mmt, still a record, citing excessive rain and uneven weather. 🧪 Fertilizer Market Developments The U.S. approved Venezuelan fertilizer sales to help offset disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite the move, analysts say limited capacity means little short-term relief, with NOLA urea already up sharply. 🏛️ Policy & Farmer Relief Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is exploring multiple options to reduce fertilizer costs and acknowledged that additional farmer aid remains on the table if conditions worsen. 👍 If you enjoy these daily market updates, subscribe to the channel and jump in the comments with your thoughts. Your support keeps the independent content coming.

🧪 Fertilizer Stocks Surge Shares of CF Industries hit a record high Thursday, jumping as much as 14% intraday—its biggest one-day gain since 2020. CF controls roughly 40% of the North American nitrogen fertilizer market. Profit margins are likely expanding as nitrogen prices surge while the company benefits from cheap North American natural gas. Many global competitors are facing much higher gas costs or supply disruptions. Speculative buying may also be contributing. Shares of Nutrien, which controls about 22% of the North American nitrogen market, rose nearly 8%. It’s worth noting that most ammonia and UAN used in the US is produced domestically, but the US relies heavily on imported urea—roughly 65% of supply comes from imports. 🛢️ CME CEO Warns on Government Oil Intervention CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that government intervention in crude oil futures would be a “biblical disaster,” saying markets do not react well when governments attempt to influence pricing. The comments follow reports that the US Treasury may be considering actions—including possible futures market activity—to push oil prices lower. Some traders have pointed to a series of large unexplained trades this week and questioned whether government involvement could be possible. WTI crude plunged from $119/bbl Monday to $77/bbl Tuesday before rebounding sharply. ⛽ Fuel Prices Spike Retail gasoline prices have surged to the highest level since mid-2023. GasBuddy estimates the national average near $3.65/gal, up more than 70 cents from last month. California leads the nation at roughly $5.39/gal, while Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona all average above $4.00. AAA estimates the national diesel average near $4.89/gal, up $1.22 from last month. Gasoline accounts for roughly 4% of the CPI basket, meaning a 25% increase in gasoline prices could theoretically add about 1% to inflation. 🚢 Oil Jumps as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Continues Crude oil rallied sharply again Thursday. May WTI gained $8.48 to close at $95.70 while Brent settled above $100. Two tankers traveling through Iraqi waters were reportedly struck by Iranian explosives, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said naval escorts through the strait are possible by the end of the month. 🌱 Soybeans Rally to Best Trade Since 2024 Soybean futures posted their strongest trade since May 2024. The expiring March contract traded as high as $12.23 while the most active May contract reached $12.38. The rally has been fueled by optimism surrounding renewable fuel policy, improving US-China trade sentiment, and sharply higher crude oil prices. Brazilian trade groups are also expressing concern about exports to China. Brazil recently implemented stricter pest and weed inspections after a request from Chinese authorities. As a result, Cargill temporarily halted soybean purchases and shipments to China. Industry groups are now working with officials to resolve the issue and restore trade flows.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Brazil Soybean Export Disruption Cargill has paused Brazilian soybean exports to China after Brazil implemented stricter pest and weed inspections at China’s request. Some shipments have failed the new standards, forcing exporters to halt purchases from farmers and causing local soybean bids to disappear in parts of Brazil. 🛢️ Iran War Drives Fertilizer Concerns Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast highlighted how the Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are pushing fertilizer prices higher—just ahead of spring planting. Rising input costs could eventually translate into higher global food prices. 📈 Grain Futures Rally Soybeans surged again Wednesday with May beans closing near $12.14. Corn and wheat also gained as crude oil rebounded and geopolitical tensions escalated, while speculation grows that higher fertilizer and fuel costs could influence US acreage decisions. 🤝 US-China Trade Talks Ahead US and Chinese trade officials will meet in Paris this weekend ahead of President Trump’s planned China visit later this month. Markets are watching closely as analysts suggest new soybean purchases could follow. 🏭 Ethanol Production Jumps US ethanol output climbed to an eight-week high, while inventories dropped. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive, providing support to corn demand. 🛢️ Record Strategic Oil Release The International Energy Agency announced a record 400 million-barrel emergency oil release, but crude still rallied above $88 as markets worry about prolonged Middle East disruptions. 📊 Inflation Holds Steady US CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching expectations. However, the report doesn’t yet reflect the recent surge in energy prices, which could add inflation pressure in the months ahead.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Ag Markets Lag the Commodity Boom Agricultural markets have badly underperformed the broader commodity complex. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged past its 2022 peak and is up more than 19% so far in 2026, while the Bloomberg Ag Subindex (grains, softs, and livestock) has gained less than 5%. Recent strength in commodities has been driven first by gold and silver and more recently by energy markets.  🛢️ Oil Prices Swing on Iran War Headlines Crude oil plunged Tuesday, with WTI falling nearly 12% to $83.45, its biggest single-day drop since 2022. Confusion over tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, talk of easing sanctions on Russian oil, and speculation that the war with Iran could end soon pressured the market. The IEA also proposed what would be the largest oil reserve release in history, adding more downside pressure. 🧪 Fertilizer Supply at Risk The Middle East conflict is threatening fertilizer supplies ahead of spring planting. The Persian Gulf region accounts for nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports, and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten supply. Higher fertilizer prices may encourage farmers to shift acres away from corn toward soybeans, while rising fuel costs could further increase production expenses.  ⛽ Oil Traders Secure Credit Major commodity trading houses are securing billions in additional credit lines from banks as energy market volatility increases. Higher oil prices raise the value of cargo shipments and can trigger large futures margin calls, increasing liquidity needs across the trading sector. 🌴 Biofuel Supply Risks in Southeast Asia Shipping disruptions are pushing methanol prices higher in Southeast Asia, threatening biodiesel production tied to palm oil. Indonesia relies heavily on methanol imports from the Middle East, and prolonged supply issues could disrupt its blending mandates. Meanwhile, Chicago Platts ethanol futures have rallied to about $1.81/gal, with US ethanol margins positive by roughly 10–30 cents across the Corn Belt. 📊 USDA Report Mostly a Non-Event Tuesday’s USDA report contained few surprises. US ending stocks were left unchanged. Global corn stocks increased on larger crops in Brazil, Ukraine, and India, while global wheat and soybean stocks were trimmed slightly. Brazil’s corn crop estimate increased, while Argentina’s corn and soybean crops were reduced. 📉 Bond Traders Turn Bearish Investors have begun betting against US Treasuries as higher oil prices raise inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about 20 basis points since late February, and markets are watching today’s CPI report closely for signals on future Fed policy.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🪖 War signals easing: Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could be short-lived and nearing an end. He is also considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets cooled, with crude dropping below $90 after earlier surging above $119. 🌍⛽ 🛢️🤝 Global response: Group of Seven energy ministers will meet to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves, and the U.S. may ease oil sanctions on Russia to help stabilize energy prices. 🌽📉 Grain markets pull back: Profit-taking pushed futures lower. Corn fell ~7¢ to $4.54/bu (after hitting the highest level since May 2025 earlier in the session).Soybeans dropped ~5¢ to $11.96/bu.Wheat declined ~14¢ to about $6.03/bu. The sell-off came as crude oil retreated from overnight highs.📊📅 USDA report day: United States Department of Agriculture will release the Crop Production and WASDE report (11am CST). Expectations: Slight increase in U.S. corn ending stocks 🌽Slight decline in soybean & wheat stocks 🌱🌾Global stocks mostly unchanged Traders are more focused on the upcoming Prospective Plantings report later this month.🚢🌽 Export shipments: Corn: 1.5 mmt, down week-to-week but still strong.Soybeans: 879k mt, near expectations; China bought ~47% 🇨🇳Wheat: 496k mt, well above expectations.🇧🇷🌱 Brazil harvest update: Soybean harvest is 51% complete, the slowest pace in five years, though still near the average. Dry weather in March has helped progress. Second-crop corn planting is 82% complete. 🥩⚠️ Beef plant strike: Workers at a major JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado (capacity 6,000 cattle/day) plan to strike. Impact may be limited because the industry currently has more slaughter capacity than available cattle, allowing feedlots to shift animals to other plants. 👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Middle East tensions escalated over the weekend as Iran named the son of Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader. Israel struck oil facilities near Tehran, while Iran threatened attacks on regional energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut due to missile and drone risks, disrupting energy shipments. 🛢️ Oil markets turned extremely volatile. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures briefly surged over 25% to above $110 before easing to around $101, still sharply higher. Production cuts from Kuwait and Iraq — with more expected — are adding to supply concerns. 🌽 Grain markets rallied alongside energy. Soybeans climbed to about $12.20, corn rose near $4.69, and wheat advanced toward $6.26 as higher oil prices lifted agricultural commodities. 🇨🇳 China signaled stability in U.S. relations. Despite the Iran conflict, Beijing indicated it wants steady ties with Washington ahead of a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with trade officials set to meet in Paris next week. 📊 Funds turned bullish on grains. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers bought 65k corn contracts and 16k soybean contracts last week, while trimming 7k SRW wheat contracts. 👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Grains Higher as Oil Surges Rising crude oil prices supported grain futures Thursday. May corn gained nearly 10¢ to ~$4.54, soybeans climbed nearly 10¢ to ~$11.79, and Chicago wheat rallied about 16¢ to ~$5.84. WTI crude jumped more than 8%, helping lift ag markets. Fresh highs were posted overnight in several corn, soybean, and wheat contracts. 📈 🛢️ White House Weighs Oil Price Measures The Trump administration is considering steps to cool the recent oil rally, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, waiving fuel blending requirements, and even potentially trading oil futures. WTI has surged about 20% since Sunday and moved above $80/bbl for the first time since July 2024. ⛽ 🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Raised Agroconsult boosted its Brazil soybean crop estimate to a record 183.1 mmt, up 850k from the prior outlook. For comparison: USDA 180 mmt and Conab 178 mmt. 🇧🇷 🚢 Strong Corn Export Sales US corn export sales impressed at 2 mmt (80 mb) last week, well above expectations. Soybeans and wheat were near the low end of estimates, with China and Mexico the top buyers respectively. 🌎 🌧️ Drought Expands in the Corn Belt About 38% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing drought conditions, with deterioration across the High Plains. Corn 51% | Soybeans 53% | Winter Wheat 56% | Spring Wheat 19% | Cattle 57% 🌾 🥩 Senate Bill Targets Meatpacker Structure Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would limit major meatpackers to processing only one type of meat and impose concentration limits in the beef industry. Critics say it could weaken the supply chain and raise costs for consumers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Rain Hits the Corn Belt Rain has returned to the drought-stricken Corn Belt. Over the last 72 hours, a wide band dropped 1–3 inches across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Radar remains active this morning, with a strong system stretching from southeast Missouri into southern/eastern Illinois and across Indiana and Ohio. 📉 Grain Futures Slip Grain markets moved lower Wednesday as attention shifted away from the Middle East conflict. May corn lost nearly 3 cents to around $4.44, May soybeans fell about 1 cent to near $11.70, and Chicago May wheat dropped roughly 6 cents to about $5.68. Ample global supplies, concerns over Chinese soybean demand, and rain forecasts across the winter wheat belt weighed on prices. ⚖️ DOJ Investigates Fertilizer Companies The US Department of Justice is investigating several major fertilizer producers for potential price collusion. Companies under scrutiny include Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. The probe is in its early stages but has bipartisan support amid concerns over high farm input costs and food prices. 🚢 Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapses Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted. Vessel traffic dropped from more than 100 ships late last week to just a handful early this week. The strait is a critical chokepoint for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer feedstocks, and disruptions have pushed commodity prices higher. ✈️ Fuel Buyers Rush to Hedge Airlines and shipping firms are rushing to hedge fuel costs as crude prices surge. Many are using call options to protect against further spikes, with jet fuel prices in Europe hitting their highest level since 2022. 🌽 Ethanol Production Update US ethanol production slipped to 1.1 million barrels per day last week, down slightly from the prior week but still above last year. Stocks increased to 26.34 million barrels. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from roughly 5 to 35 cents. 📦 Flash Corn Sale USDA reported a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons (about 5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. 👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Iran Conflict & Fertilizer Markets The war in Iran has led to a partial pause in fertilizer bidding as production curtailments and Gulf shipping disruptions slow movement. The Middle East accounts for about 25% of global urea exports, and US inventories were already tight. If nitrogen equals 10–20% of a corn grower’s costs, a 40% price spike could raise total production costs by 4–8%, which has sparked talk of aggressive acreage switching away from corn. 🚢 US Insurance Backstop for Gulf Shipping The US will help insure ships traveling through the Gulf as war-risk premiums surge. President Trump ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to assist with insurance costs and said the US Navy may escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. Officials are also prepared to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if supply disruptions continue. 💵 US Dollar Surges The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has jumped sharply since the conflict began, marking its strongest two-day rally in nearly a year. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and could delay Fed rate cuts. Unlike past oil shocks, the US is now a major energy exporter, which has helped support the dollar. 🥩 Brazilian Beef Trade at Risk A prolonged conflict could disrupt Brazilian beef exports through Middle Eastern shipping routes. About 10% of Brazil’s beef exports go directly to the Middle East, while 30–40% pass through the region en route to Asia and China. If flows are disrupted, the US could become an alternative market. 📊 Farmer Sentiment Improves Slightly The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer rose to 116 in February, up slightly from January as current conditions improved. However, expectations for the future weakened, and 44% of farmers said their operations are worse off than a year ago. 🌽 USDA Flash Corn Sale USDA reported a flash sale of 196,000 mt (about 8 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. The war in Iran poses risks to global fertilizer production and supply chains 🌍. The Gulf region hosts some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, and roughly one-third of global crop nutrients pass through the Strait of Hormuz. While the US imports little fertilizer directly from Iran, it relies heavily on supplies from other Gulf countries shipping through the strait. Fertilizer prices—especially urea—have already risen amid disruption fears. Natural gas prices also moved higher after Qatar temporarily shut down a major facility Monday, adding pressure since gas is a key input for nitrogen fertilizer. Roughly 25% of global anhydrous ammonia exports and 20-25% of global urea exports move through the Strait of Hormuz. Many US fertilizer retailers pulled their offers yesterday due to the uncertainty. The conflict is also influencing ag markets 🌽🫘. Soybean oil gained as much as 3.9% Monday as higher crude prices boosted biofuel demand. Soybean futures moved lower amid uncertainty regarding Chinese purchases and whether President Trump’s planned meeting with Xi Jinping later this month will occur as scheduled. Corn futures declined on concerns that disruptions to Brazilian shipments to Iran could reduce demand. Wheat futures were also lower as traders gave back last week’s gains while watching whether global grain shipments could be affected. The conflict is beginning to impact gasoline prices ⛽. WTI crude surged 8.4% Monday to $72.74 per barrel after President Trump suggested the conflict could last longer than a few weeks. According to GasBuddy, the national average gasoline price rose 5 cents Sunday to $2.99 per gallon. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with tankers avoiding the region as insurers cancel vessel coverage. Shipping rates for oil and gas have surged, and continued disruptions could contribute to broader inflation pressures. Brazil soybean production estimates were trimmed 🌱. AgRural lowered its forecast to 178mmt from 181mmt and reported harvest progress at 39% as of last week, well behind last year’s 50%. StoneX also cut its estimate to 177.8mmt from 181.6mmt. Both revisions were tied to drought conditions in Rio Grande do Sul.  US ethanol production reached a new all-time high last year ⛽🌽. Output climbed to 16.5 billion gallons in 2025, up 1.7% from the prior year, supported by strong domestic demand and record exports. The national average blend rate hit 10.5%, while domestic consumption increased to 14.3 billion gallons. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, growth reflects expanded E15 sales and could increase further if Congress approves year-round nationwide E15. US ethanol exports jumped 13% year over year to 2.2 billion gallons. US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the fourth straight week 🚢. USDA reported 1.9mmt (73m bu) of corn inspected for export during the week ending February 26—down 8% from the prior week but up 37% year over year. Soybean shipments totaled 1.1mmt (42m bu), up 67% vs. the previous week and 62% above last year. China accounted for about 65% of inspections. Wheat shipments totaled 344,272mt (13m bu), down 39% week over week and 12% below last year. Roughly 12 cargoes of US soybeans were shipped to China last week—2 from the PNW and 10 from the Gulf—totaling about 30m bushels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Geopolitics & Middle East Developments Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed over the weekend following a US-Israeli strike on Saturday that also eliminated several senior Iranian officials. Authorities reported that the attacks killed and wounded hundreds of civilians. The strike came after US-Iran negotiations aimed at addressing Iran’s nuclear program ultimately failed. In retaliation, Iran launched attacks against US and Israeli bases across the Middle East and vowed to continue further strikes.  🛢️ Oil Markets & Strait of Hormuz Closure Oil prices surged Sunday following the US and Israeli strikes. WTI crude oil futures opened more than $8 per barrel higher and were trading about $4.60 per barrel, or roughly 7%, higher early this morning. The rally is being driven primarily by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following Saturday’s attacks, Iran announced the waterway would be closed to navigation, halting the flow of oil shipments. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies typically move through the strait.  🇨🇳 China, Energy Security & Trump–Xi Summit The strike could complicate President Trump’s upcoming visit to China. Beijing publicly condemned the attack and warned it could further destabilize the Middle East. Despite its strong rhetoric, China is not expected to intervene militarily. The Trump–Xi summit scheduled for later this month is still expected to proceed, though major breakthroughs appear unlikely. China imports about 14% of its crude oil needs from Iran and accounts for roughly 80–90% of Iran’s oil exports, as sanctions limit purchases from other countries. 🌾 Grain Markets React to Geopolitical Risk Wheat futures surged on Friday. The Chicago May 2026 contract rose 17 cents to close near $5.92 per bushel, its highest level since July 2025. The rally was fueled by heightened US-Iran tensions that triggered short covering by the funds. Corn and soybean futures also moved higher, with May corn gaining about 5 cents to settle near $4.49 per bushel and May soybeans rising roughly 7 cents to close near $11.71 per bushel. Traders were clearly anticipating a potential weekend escalation on Friday. Grains showed some early strength overnight but were mostly steady early this morning. 📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders The CFTC released its weekly Commitment of Traders report on Friday. For the week ending February 24, large money managers were net buyers of 29,000 corn contracts and net buyers of 12,000 soybean contracts. Funds were also net buyers of 52,000 SRW wheat contracts during the week. The net short position in SRW wheat shrank to 18,000 contracts, the smallest since October 2022. Private estimates suggested funds held a net long of about 25,000 wheat contracts at Friday’s close, along with a net long of roughly 180,000 soybean contracts and a reduced SRW wheat net short of about 10,000 contracts.  🌽 Crop Insurance Prices & Acreage Outlook This year’s crop insurance pricing provides improved coverage for soybeans, while corn faces greater downside risk. The spring projected soybean price is $11.09 per bushel, up 55 cents from last year. The corn projected price declined 8 cents to $4.62 per bushel. Spring wheat’s projected price stands at $6.19 per bushel, also 55 cents higher year over year.

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Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube 🇺🇸🇧🇷 US vs Brazil Soybean Profitability This week, the University of Illinois farmdoc team broke down a critical difference between US and Brazilian soybean economics. Brazil’s costs are heavily tied to direct inputs like fertilizer, while US producers face far larger overhead expenses driven by elevated farmland values. Brazilian production costs surged from 2020–2024 due to fertilizer inflation and currency weakness, yet profitability held up thanks to strong prices and export demand. US margins were far less stable, contributing to losses in multiple years. 📈 Soybean Market Update Soybean futures pushed higher Tuesday, with strength linked to easing fears surrounding US tariff policy and China demand. The market continues to weigh the potential impact of evolving trade policy, while rumors of Chinese PNW business circulated. Traders remain cautious but attentive to any confirmation of export activity. 🌽 Corn & Wheat Trade Corn futures were slightly lower. Chicago wheat was mostly steady as traders monitored persistent dryness across key HRW regions. Weather remains the dominant driver, with warm and windy conditions stressing parts of the Southern Plains, though rain chances loom further out. 🌦️ Weather Watch Forecast models keep much of Kansas and surrounding wheat areas dry near-term, while temperatures run well above normal. Moisture prospects in the extended window remain a focal point for price direction. 🧪 Fertilizer & Tariff Policy Most fertilizer imports remain exempt under the latest tariff framework. Key products like ammonia, sulfur, and sulfuric acid face minimal disruption, largely due to Canadian dominance in US import flows. ₿ Bitcoin Sentiment Investor confidence remains fragile. A large share of supply is now underwater, reinforcing a pattern where rallies encounter selling pressure. Despite price weakness, ETF positioning suggests longer-term holders have not fully exited.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Trade drama is back in the headlines. President Trump is threatening higher tariffs on countries that fail to honor trade agreements. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, the EU announced it would pause ratification of its agreement, while India is deferring talks on its own deal. Despite the legal setback, the White House says it remains committed to its trade agenda and is exploring alternative tools to implement tariffs. Markets clearly reacted to the renewed uncertainty, with stocks under pressure to start the week. Grain markets felt the ripple effects. Soybean and wheat futures moved lower Monday as traders weighed the potential impact of trade disruptions and retaliation tied to the newly announced 15% global tariff. Corn futures, meanwhile, managed to hold steady. When policy uncertainty rises, volatility often follows — and that theme remains firmly in play. Export data offered a few surprises. US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the third straight week, posting a very strong year-over-year gain. Wheat inspections also came in above trade guesses. Soybean shipments, however, disappointed and continue to reflect uneven demand patterns. China remained a major buyer, accounting for roughly half of weekly inspections. USDA also reported a fresh flash sale of corn to Colombia, adding to an already solid sales pace this marketing year. Demand for US corn has been a notable bright spot recently, especially when compared to other segments of the export complex. Weather and field conditions remain a major talking point in South America. Brazil’s soybean harvest is advancing at its slowest pace in several years, with rains and longer crop cycles creating delays. Planting progress for Brazil’s second corn crop is also lagging last year’s pace, which could become increasingly important for global feed grain supply expectations. Outside of grains, US consumers continue to show remarkable resilience in the face of high beef prices. Despite record price levels, demand remains strong as buyers adapt by shifting toward more affordable cuts and smaller portions. The protein story remains a powerful force across the broader agricultural landscape. As always, volatility, policy, and global production trends remain key market drivers. 👍 If you enjoy straightforward market commentary, be sure to subscribe. 💬 Drop your thoughts or questions in the comments—I read them all.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Soybean markets started the week wrestling with fresh tariff drama. The Supreme Court struck down the administration’s prior global tariffs, ruling that the use of emergency powers was unlawful. Shortly afterward, the White House announced a new blanket tariff approach, creating another wave of uncertainty across financial and commodity markets. The key question for agriculture remains unchanged: how will this impact trade flows and demand, particularly from China? Earlier signals pointed toward stronger soybean buying interest, but policy volatility continues to cloud the outlook. Meanwhile, USDA is preparing to roll out a major round of farm assistance through the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. The application window opens today, with payments expected to move quickly. Market participants will be watching closely to see how the agency handles what could be a surge in producer enrollment. The program arrives at a time when farm margins remain under pressure and policy uncertainty is elevated. Export demand signals were mixed in the latest weekly data. Corn demand continues to hold up relatively well despite some week-to-week variability, while soybean and wheat sales showed uneven momentum. Traders remain highly sensitive to shifts in global demand and competitiveness. The latest Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding to positions across the grain complex, with soybeans drawing particular attention. Positioning trends remain an important driver of short-term price movement, especially in an environment dominated by macro headlines. In livestock, the latest Cattle on Feed report landed near expectations and was generally viewed as neutral. While placements data offered some supportive elements, the overall numbers did not point to a major shift in supply outlook. Lots to unpack this week as markets digest policy developments, demand signals, and fund activity. Stay tuned.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back 🌾 Wheat futures pushed sharply higher on Thursday, fueled largely by short covering as traders reacted to drought and high winds across the US Southern Plains. Weather risks remain front and center, with ongoing concerns about potential crop stress in key HRW regions. There was also chatter surrounding possible issues with Ukraine’s wheat crop. Chicago and Kansas City contracts both posted solid gains. The Climate Prediction Center added another layer of support with updated seasonal outlooks calling for a warm and dry pattern across much of wheat country. While long-range forecasts always deserve some skepticism, the market clearly paid attention. 🌱 USDA Acreage & Production Outlook USDA projects an increase in soybean acreage this season, while corn acres are expected to decline. Soybeans are viewed as offering stronger relative profitability, helping drive the shift. Despite fewer corn acres, production is still forecast to be massive. Wheat acreage is seen slipping slightly. ⛽ Ethanol Production & Margins US ethanol production moved higher last week, and stocks also increased. Margins reportedly strengthened across much of the Corn Belt, a supportive signal for corn demand. We’ll take a look at what’s driving profitability and why this matters. 🚢 Ethanol & DDGS Trade Ethanol exports surged to one of the highest monthly totals on record, capping off a year of very strong international demand. DDGS shipments also remained robust. Trade flows continue to play a critical role in demand dynamics. 🚜 John Deere Shares Surge John Deere shares posted a stunning rally following earnings. The company exceeded expectations and raised its income outlook. Management commentary hinted at stabilizing farm economics and potential improvement in equipment demand. 🛢️ Crude Oil & Geopolitics Crude oil climbed to multi-month highs amid escalating US-Iran tensions and renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Energy markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Ag Outlook Forum – Acreage & Yield Estimates USDA will release its first look at 2026 acreage and yield projections this morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum. Analysts expect corn acreage near 94.9 million acres with production around 15.9 billion bushels. Soybean acreage is forecast near 84.9 million acres with production pegged at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is projected at 44.8 million acres with production near 1.9 billion bushels. These numbers often set the tone for new-crop expectations and market psychology. 🚜 NCGA Warns of Farm Financial Stress The National Corn Growers Association released a report emphasizing mounting financial pressure across US agriculture. The group argues that many corn farmers are facing multiple years of negative margins amid rising costs and increased volatility. Long-term consolidation trends continue as productivity gains fail to consistently translate into profitability. Off-farm income remains critical for many operations. Demand growth and supportive policy remain central themes. 🌾 Wheat Strength – Weather Concerns Kansas City wheat futures posted fresh multi-month highs overnight, with nearby contracts reaching their best levels since late summer. Comments from Ukraine’s farmers union regarding winter wheat risks following a thaw and cold snap helped support prices. Wheat continues to show relative strength compared to corn. 📊 Corn & Soybean Price Action Soybeans briefly traded into fresh multi-month highs, while corn futures remain sluggish ahead of First Notice Day. Spreads, positioning, and technical flows are all in focus as traders manage delivery risk and roll activity. ⛽ E15 Policy Push Continues Ag groups continue pressing for year-round nationwide E15 sales despite missed legislative deadlines. Advocates argue expanded blends would boost corn demand and potentially reduce fuel costs. Market participants continue to monitor Washington for movement. 🌧️ South American Weather Update Recent rains improved soybean conditions in southern Brazil and brought relief to dry Argentine areas. Additional precipitation could disrupt harvest pace and second-crop corn planting. Brazilian production estimates remain historically large. 🚢 Argentina Strikes & Logistics Labor strikes are temporarily disrupting Argentine grain shipments. While these events frequently generate headlines, they historically produce limited lasting impact on global price trends.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Biofuel Mandates & Soybean Strength The EPA is expected to submit its proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House for final review in the coming days. The Trump administration is working to finalize the delayed mandates by the end of March. Earlier proposals pointed to a sizable increase in total biofuel volumes and a sharp jump in the biomass-based diesel target. While the agency is now considering a slightly revised range for biomass-based diesel, the numbers still imply substantially stronger demand compared to prior years. Both old and new crop soybean futures pushed to multi-month highs overnight. Biofuel optimism — combined with ongoing Chinese demand optimism — continues to support prices despite the advancing Brazilian harvest. 🌽 Corn Market Pressure Corn futures moved lower Tuesday, pressured by improving crop conditions in Argentina following recent rainfall. Weather developments in South America remain a key driver for global feed grain markets. 🌾 Wheat Faces Global Headwinds Chicago wheat futures also weakened. Pressure stemmed from an increased Russian crop outlook and news that India will allow limited wheat exports. Seasonal demand softness tied to the Lunar New Year added additional weight to the market. 🚢 Port of Los Angeles & Soybean Flows U.S. soybean shipments to China through the Port of Los Angeles remain extremely light. Flows through the port fell sharply last year and showed little recovery late in the year. The Port of LA typically handles only a very small share of total U.S. soybean exports. The Gulf continues to dominate shipment volumes, followed by the Pacific Northwest. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced on the world market, influencing global trade flows. 📦 Export Inspections Update U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations for the second straight week, while soybean inspections remained strong and near the upper end of forecasts. China accounted for a significant portion of weekly soybean movement. Seasonal export patterns remain important to monitor. 🛢️ NOPA Crush & Soybean Oil Stocks NOPA reported a record January soybean crush for the month. Processing margins and domestic demand continue to drive historically large crush volumes. Soybean oil stocks increased sharply and now sit at their highest level in quite some time—an important factor for biofuel and vegetable oil markets moving forward.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Long-Term Projections (Out to 2035) USDA released its annual baseline projections, and the acreage outlook immediately caught traders’ attention. The agency pegged 2026 corn acres at 95 million, sharply lower year-over-year, while soybean acres were projected at 85 million, implying a notable shift toward beans. Also raising eyebrows: USDA does not project an average farm price for corn above the mid-$4 range at any point through 2035. These projections assume “normal” conditions and are intended for planning and budgeting, but they often influence long-term sentiment. 🚜 The Future of US Farms & Ranches A major Wall Street Journal feature highlighted a growing structural issue in American agriculture: succession. A large share of farms reportedly have no clear next-generation operator, while the producer population continues to age. Consolidation trends remain strong, with more operations being sold or leased to larger entities. Over time, this could accelerate the shift toward landlord-tenant and contract production models, reshaping rural communities and land markets. 📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders Money managers were active buyers again. Funds added to net long positions in both corn and soybeans, with soybean length expanding to its largest level in weeks. Wheat, meanwhile, saw modest selling pressure. Changes in speculative positioning can heavily influence short-term price behavior and volatility. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop & Planting Progress Brazil’s soybean harvest remains slower than last year amid persistent rainfall delays. Safrinha corn planting is also trailing the prior pace. Weather-related slowdowns at this time of year often feed into global supply expectations and can influence export competition dynamics. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade & Soybean Demand Signals Diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials continues ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meetings later this spring. Reports of a potential extension of the trade truce have supported optimism regarding Chinese demand for US soybeans. Markets remain sensitive to any indications of purchase targets, policy shifts, or rhetoric changes. 🔥 Energy Markets – Natural Gas Pullback Natural gas prices have eased following a warmer weather outlook after January’s weather-driven rally. Storage deficits persist, however, providing underlying support. Energy markets can indirectly influence fertilizer, input costs, and broader commodity sentiment.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean Market Rally Soybeans moved sharply higher following a South China Morning Post report hinting that the US–China trade truce could be extended when Trump and Xi meet in April. President Trump recently suggested China may boost US soybean purchases to 20mmt, but skepticism remains as Brazilian beans continue to dominate global offers at a discount. 🌽 Export Sales Breakdown Corn export sales were a clear bright spot, easily beating expectations with Japan leading the charge. Soybean sales, however, slipped to a marketing-year low despite China showing up as the largest buyer. Wheat sales posted modest improvement. What does this mixed demand picture mean going forward? 🌎 South America Weather & Production Argentina’s crops are still in a weather-critical window, with dryness raising concern about yield potential. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to stack record production, with Conab raising its soybean estimate again. Harvest is advancing — and global supply pressure is building. 🥩 Beef Industry Developments Cargill is closing its Milwaukee processing facility, adding to the growing list of plant slowdowns and shutdowns. With the US cattle herd near historic lows, the livestock sector faces tightening dynamics that could reshape margins and price behavior. ☀️ Drought Monitor Update Large portions of the Corn Belt saw limited precipitation, while drought conditions worsened in parts of Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas. We review what this means as the growing season approaches. 🚢 Flash Sale to Egypt USDA reported new soybean business to Egypt. How significant is this sale in the broader demand landscape?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌏 Global Market Developments Chinese media hinted that the U.S.–China trade truce may be extended, while officials confirmed discussions around a potential presidential visit. Optimism surrounding trade stability helped support soybean prices overnight, with futures probing fresh multi-month highs. 🚢 Demand & Trade Flows China’s appetite for U.S. sorghum continues to generate buzz. Reports suggest strong buying interest tied to tight domestic feed supplies and lingering quality issues in China’s corn crop. Notably, China has still shown little interest in U.S. corn, keeping alternative grains in focus. ⛽ Biofuels & Energy Markets Marine fuel demand is gaining attention as a potential growth engine for biofuels. With global shipping facing mounting emissions pressure, renewable diesel and ethanol are increasingly part of the debate. Industry participants continue to question how easily existing engines could adapt. 🏛 Policy & Regulatory Watch Corn grower groups are pressing the Department of Justice for clarity on its fertilizer industry investigation. Producers argue that input costs and market concentration remain critical issues ahead of the next planting season. 📦 Supply, Production & Margins Ethanol production rebounded last week while margins improved across key regions. Stocks also moved higher, reflecting shifting operating conditions and steady blending demand. 🌽 Export Activity USDA announced another flash sale of corn to unknown destinations, reinforcing the strong pace of export commitments and ongoing demand beneath the market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌎 Soybeans Soybean futures advanced on Tuesday, with the most heavily traded Mar26 contract gaining nearly 12 cents to settle near $11.23 per bushel. Strength was tied largely to continued optimism surrounding Chinese demand after last week’s signals that China may boost this season’s US soybean purchase target. The rally came despite USDA leaving its US soybean export, crush, and ending stocks projections unchanged. Meanwhile, USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production outlook to 180 mmt. 🌽 Corn USDA reduced its outlook for US corn ending stocks, primarily reflecting stronger export expectations. The adjustment provided modest underlying support to the corn market. 🌾 Wheat Wheat balance sheets saw minimal changes, with ending stocks estimates largely steady. 🏛️ US–China Developments US Treasury staff visited China last week to reinforce communication between Washington and Beijing. Discussions centered on preparations for a future meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. While no official date or location has been announced, the meeting is expected in the coming weeks. President Trump also recently described a productive phone call with President Xi Jinping, during which China again referenced the possibility of larger US soybean purchases. 🏗️ US Grain Storage Capacity The University of Illinois highlighted a growing structural concern within US grain markets. After nearly two decades of steady growth, US grain storage capacity has largely stopped expanding. At the same time, crop production continues to trend higher, tightening the margin between production and available storage. Elevated construction costs, higher interest rates, and long-term production uncertainty appear to be limiting investment. If this dynamic persists, the industry may face greater basis volatility and logistical bottlenecks. 🇧🇷 Brazil Inflation & Interest Rates Brazilian inflation moved modestly higher in January, with consumer prices rising annually and remaining above the central bank’s target. Despite inflation pressures, policymakers continue to signal that rate cuts may begin in March. Markets remain divided on the pace of easing. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate remains historically high, helping shape currency flows and global competitiveness. 🐄 Brazil Beef & Feedlot Expansion Brazil’s cattle feeding sector continued its rapid expansion. Feedlot placements rose sharply last year, reflecting an ongoing shift toward more grain-intensive production systems. Brazil has strengthened its position in global beef markets, remaining the world’s largest exporter with China as its dominant customer. Shipments to the US also increased significantly amid tight domestic cattle supplies.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Grain Markets China returned to the U.S. market on Monday with a flash sale of 264,000 mt (10 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. Despite the headline, soybean futures ended lower, with the Mar ’26 contract down nearly 5 cents to settle near $11.11. Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 10.15 mmt (accumulated export sales plus Monday’s flash sale). Roughly half of the 3.1 mmt sold to unknown destinations will likely be tagged to China, pushing total sales to ~11.7 mmt, very close to the White House’s 12 mmt target. President Trump’s recent comments suggest China could ultimately push current marketing-year purchases toward 20 mmt. 🚢 Export Inspections Corn: 1.3 mmt (51 mil bu) ⬆️ 14% vs prior week | ⬇️ 4.2% vs last year Soybeans: 1.1 mmt (42 mil bu) ⬇️ 14% vs prior week | ⬆️ 3.5% vs last year China accounted for ~66% of total inspections. Soybean shipments to China included 3 PNW cargoes and 9 Gulf cargoes.  Wheat: 580,130 mt (21 mil bu) ⬆️ 76% vs prior week | ⬆️ 1.7% vs last year 📊 USDA Preview The USDA will release its Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00am CST. Expectations: U.S. corn ending stocks: unchanged U.S. soybean ending stocks: slightly lower U.S. wheat ending stocks: modestly lower World stocks: mostly unchanged Brazil corn & soybean production: likely revised higher 🛢️ Soybean Oil & Crush Soybean oil rallied to its highest level in over six months following news that the U.S. and India reached a trade agreement that would reduce or eliminate duties on several U.S. ag products, including soybean oil. India is the world’s largest edible oil importer, buying roughly 16 mmt annually. Prices could strengthen further once the agreement is finalized, though a record Brazilian soybean crop and rapidly advancing harvest may limit upside.  🚜 Farm Economy Farm bankruptcies rose sharply in 2025, climbing 46% year over year to 315 filings, marking the second straight year of increases. The Midwest and Southeast led the way, with Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska posting the highest totals. Between 2017 and 2024, roughly 160,000 U.S. farm operations exited the industry. With losses expected to persist across most crop sectors, bankruptcies and farm exits are likely to increase again in 2026.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🥩 Cattle & Beef President Trump signed an executive order allowing up to 100,000 metric tons of Argentine beef to enter the U.S. this year under a lower tariff rate. The goal is to reduce retail beef prices. • Imports will consist only of lean beef trimmings, used primarily in ground beef • A similar move last fall triggered sharp selloffs in cattle futures • Beef prices did not fall meaningfully last time • Markets will be watching closely to see if funds react again 🌱 Soybeans Soybeans rallied for a third straight session on Friday. • The Mar26 contract settled near $11.15, the highest since early December • The rally followed Trump’s comments suggesting China may boost U.S. purchases to 20mmt • Traders remain skeptical China will follow through • Brazil’s record crop continues to hang over the market 🌽 Corn & 🌾 Wheat Corn and wheat futures ended the session lower. • No fresh bullish catalysts • Focus remains on demand, fund positioning, and policy developments 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Geopolitics Trump’s planned April visit to China may be at risk. • The U.S. is preparing a potential $20B arms sale to Taiwan • This follows an $11B package approved in December • China has criticized the move, warning it could strain relations • Trade talks could become more complicated if tensions escalate 🇮🇳 India Trade India is considering limited ag-market access for U.S. products. • Possible tariff reductions on soybean oil and DDGS • India continues to block imports of GM food crops like soybeans and dairy • Indian farmers are pushing back, citing risks to small producers 🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Crop Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving fast. • ~17% harvested vs ~10% this time last year • Yields remain strong across most regions • StoneX projects a record 181.6mmt crop • Argentina remains dry but rain is forecast over the next 10 days 📊 CFTC & Funds The latest CFTC report showed modest fund buying, but it’s already outdated. • Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat during the reporting window • Post-report price action suggests positioning has shifted significantly • Private estimates now show large specs heavily long soybeans ⛽ Ethanol & E15 The push for year-round E15 sales continues. • E15 accounts for ~30% of Iowa fuel sales • Usage is growing roughly 45% annually • Draft legislation expected by mid-February • Political divisions could slow progress

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans Lead the Rally Soybean futures pushed higher again Thursday, building on momentum from President Trump’s comments suggesting China could increase U.S. soybean purchases this season. While some traders are buying into the optimism, others remain skeptical that verbal commitments will turn into real demand—especially during Brazil’s peak export window. Corn and wheat futures also finished the session higher. 💰 USDA: Farm Profits Jump on Government Payments USDA’s Economic Research Service says farm income rebounded last year, largely due to a sharp increase in direct government payments. Looking ahead, USDA expects farm income to level off somewhat, with payments remaining elevated relative to recent years. ⚖️ Fertilizer Prices Under DOJ Scrutiny The Iowa Corn Growers Association is pressing the Department of Justice for updates on its investigation into fertilizer pricing. The group says high input costs are adding to financial stress across farm country and wants clarity on whether consolidation in the fertilizer industry is limiting competition. 🚢 Export Sales Remain Soft Weekly export sales were underwhelming across the board. Corn sales declined again, soybean sales hit a marketing-year low, and wheat sales came in near the bottom of expectations. While China was the top soybean buyer for the week, overall demand remains sluggish. 🌧️ Drought Still a Concern Cold temperatures limited drought improvement despite some recent precipitation. Frozen soils and low Mississippi River levels continue to restrict barge traffic, while drought conditions across the High Plains remain largely unchanged.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China & US Soybeans China is considering boosting US soybean purchases. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Donald Trump said China may raise its current-season buying target from 12 mmt to 20 mmt, sparking a sharp rally in soybean futures. That said, it’s far from certain those additional purchases actually happen. After recently fulfilling its initial commitment, China has shifted back to cheaper South American supplies. Brazil is on track for a record soybean crop, keeping Brazilian prices attractive during the heart of their export window. China has so far purchased 9.65 mmt of US soybeans for this marketing year, with a large share still unshipped. Trump’s comments imply potential additional buying before the August 31 marketing-year end — but the big question remains: ➡️ Will China really buy and ship US soybeans during peak Brazilian export season? ➡️ Are we headed toward a rare contra-seasonal export program tied to trade tensions? Price action suggests optimism — even as many traders and analysts remain deeply pessimistic.  🚜 Farm Crisis Concerns Grow Former US farm leaders and lawmakers are sounding the alarm on the worsening farm economy. In a letter to the Trump administration, former US Department of Agriculture officials and industry leaders warned of a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture.” They cited rising input costs and abundant global grain supplies that have pushed prices low enough for farmers to lose money three years in a row. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that average farm operating loan sizes jumped sharply last year. While $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments are set to go out soon, most agree the aid will only cover a fraction of producer losses. 🌽 Ethanol Production Slumps US ethanol production fell hard last week, driven by plant slowdowns tied to high natural gas prices, limited availability, and severe winter weather. Output dropped well below the prior week and last year’s levels. Ethanol stocks declined, while margins actually improved across much of the Corn Belt. According to Reuters data, margins range from modestly negative to modestly positive when factoring in corn, DDGs, and inputs.  🐄 Texas Braces for Screwworm Threat Texas ranchers are preparing for a potential return of New World screwworm. Since late December, 20 cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas, Mexico — just south of the Texas border. The threat prompted Greg Abbott to issue a disaster declaration to unlock state resources. Screwworm could cost Texas cattle producers hundreds of millions and hit the broader state economy even harder. The USDA plans to release glow-in-the-dark sterile flies in northern Mexico and south Texas, but full eradication would take years. Meanwhile, the continued ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports is adding further support to cattle prices.  🌾 Corn Flash Sale USDA also reported a flash sale of corn Wednesday. Exporters sold 130,480 mt to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Total accumulated corn sales are running well ahead of last year’s pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit — New Guidance The US Treasury Department and IRS released long-awaited proposed guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit this week. Biofuel and agricultural groups largely welcomed the rules, citing improved clarity after years of delays. Key takeaways from the proposal: Fuels produced after December 31, 2025, must use feedstocks grown exclusively in the US, Mexico, or Canada The 45Z credit is extended through 2029 The special SAF credit rate is eliminated for fuel produced after January 1, 2026 The indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty is removed A 60-day public comment period is now open, with a public hearing scheduled for May 28 🧾 45Z — Important Context & Clarifications 45Z was enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but implementation has been repeatedly delayed It is a clean fuel production credit, claimed by biofuel producers (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc.) This is not 45Q, which applies to carbon capture and sequestration In most cases, plants can claim either 45Z or 45Q—not both Non-SAF fuels can receive up to $1.00 per gallon Only a limited number of plants claimed 45Z in 2025 Plants are now preparing for 2026 production, though rules remain proposed There is no direct payment to farmers—plants will decide how low-CI premiums are shared Treasury plans to release a Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) to address farming practices 🚜 US Farmer Sentiment Slides Farmer sentiment dropped sharply in January. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed: A steep decline in current conditions and future expectations Nearly 60% of farmers expect bad financial times over the next year Long-term pessimism rose meaningfully Concerns about US agricultural exports increased This highlights the difficult backdrop facing producers even as policy clarity improves. 🇧🇷 Brazil Ethanol Production Outlook Brazilian ethanol production is expected to rise this year as- Ethanol prices improve Sugar prices weaken New corn ethanol plants come online A large sugarcane crop boosts output StoneX projects strong growth, with corn ethanol production jumping sharply. This could push Brazil toward higher ethanol exports, and corn usage for ethanol may reach a record share of production. 🇨🇳 China’s “No. 1 Document” & Food Security China unveiled its annual rural policy blueprint aimed at boosting food self-sufficiency. The plan emphasizes: Higher grain and oilseed production Diversified agricultural imports Reduced reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and Canada Expanded sourcing from South America and the Global South New quotas on beef imports and tariffs on EU dairy Increased investment in agricultural innovation ₿ Bitcoin Update Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, pressured by: Liquidations of leveraged positions Weak sentiment in crypto derivatives Broader financial market volatility Despite some institutional interest, everyday investor participation has slowed, leaving Bitcoin under continued pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🇮🇳 US–India Trade Deal The Trump administration announced a trade agreement with India that reduces tariffs on Indian imports into the US from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to remove tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and halt purchases of Russian oil. India also committed to purchasing more than $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. However, key details remain unclear, including when the deal takes effect and which specific products India will buy. 🌽 Grain Markets Grain futures extended losses on Monday. The March 2026 corn contract fell roughly 3 cents to near $4.26 per bushel, while March 2026 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to around $10.60 per bushel. Wheat futures also ended lower, pressured by concerns about frigid temperatures across the US Plains and the Black Sea region. 🚢 Export Inspections US corn inspections declined last week but remain strong overall. The USDA reported inspections of 1.1 million metric tons for the week ending January 29, down 27% from the prior week and nearly 10% below the same week last year. Soybean inspections came in near the high end of expectations at 1.3 million metric tons. That figure was slightly lower week-over-week but well above last year’s pace, with China accounting for roughly 56% of total shipments. Wheat inspections totaled 326,828 metric tons, near the top of expectations. Shipments were lower versus the previous week but significantly higher than the same week last year.  🥩 Tyson Foods Tyson Foods reported another difficult quarter for its beef segment, posting an adjusted operating loss of $143 million. Tight cattle supplies continue to push costs higher, and Tyson expects those conditions to persist through this year and into 2027. In contrast, Tyson’s chicken segment posted year-over-year sales growth, marking a fifth straight quarter of volume gains. The company expects chicken to be the preferred protein this year due to affordability.  🇧🇷 Brazil Soybeans Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to advance steadily. AgRural estimates that 10% of the crop had been harvested as of last Thursday, slightly ahead of last year’s pace. StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 181.6 million metric tons, while Celeres lifted its forecast to 181.3 million.  🚜 Farm Aid Talks Lawmakers continue to push for additional farmer assistance. Michigan Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet said more aid is needed to help farmers cope with high input costs and tariff-related disruptions. She emphasized that federal aid is a temporary fix and that farmers ultimately need more reliable markets and predictable trade policy. McDonald is a co-sponsor of the proposed Farm and Family Relief Act of 2026, which calls for nearly $30 billion in aid. She believes Congress will approve the recently discussed $15 billion package by the end of the month.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG 🌽🌱 Grain Futures Recap Grain futures finished lower on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar. March corn slipped by nearly 3 cents to $4.28 March soybeans dropped 8 cents to $10.64 Wheat futures also declined, with Chicago March wheat down about 4 cents to $5.38 Markets also continue to price in strong Brazilian crop expectations, while traders assessed the impact of severe cold across the US Plains earlier this week and frigid temperatures in Ukraine. 👉 See grain charts below 🥇🥈 Gold & Silver: Historic Volatility Precious metals suffered historic one-day losses on Friday. Gold futures fell sharply Silver posted its worst daily decline since 1980 The selloff followed President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which eased concerns about central bank independence and sent the US dollar sharply higher. Longer term, metals may still find support from geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty, but Friday was a major reset. 👉 See gold, silver, and Dollar Index charts below 🏛️ Federal Reserve Update President Trump officially selected Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May. Warsh has historically been a policy hawk Recently shifted toward supporting lower rates Viewed by markets as more inflation-focused than other rumored picks One analyst summed it up: “Because Warsh has been a policy hawk his entire life, his newfound dovishness looks very suspect.” 👉 See Dollar Index and Bloomberg Commodity Index charts below 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly COT report. For the week ending January 27, funds were net buyers across major ag markets: Corn Soybeans SRW wheat 👉 See Fund Tracker charts below 🚜 Farmer Assistance Update Additional farmer aid remains under discussion in Washington. According to John Boozman, the proposed $15B package was excluded from the current spending bill Aid could still move forward as a standalone bill or disaster relief add-on The $11B Farmer Bridge Assistance program is still scheduled to be distributed by February 28 🐄 Cattle Inventory: Historically Tight The USDA cattle inventory report confirmed the smallest US herd since 1951. Total herd: 86.2 million head Beef cow numbers declined again Slight uptick in replacement heifers, but not enough to signal real expansion Bottom line: structurally bullish for the cattle market with no clear signs of herd rebuilding.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🥈 Precious Metals Volatility Silver futures were slammed this morning, with the nearby March contract down sharply in early trade. Gold also moved lower. Some traders are pointing to speculation around an imminent Trump pick for the next Fed Chair as a possible catalyst. Regardless of the reason, the size and speed of the move has grabbed everyone’s attention. 🎰 Prediction Markets & CME’s Next Move The CFTC says it plans to update prediction-market rules, aiming to provide more regulatory clarity while supporting “lawful innovation.” Chairman Michael Selig confirmed the agency will withdraw a prior proposal that would have banned sports- and political-related contracts. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi continue to grow rapidly, and CME is now partnering with FanDuel in the prediction-market space. With CME already planning 24/7 crypto derivatives trading, some believe this is a stepping stone toward round-the-clock trading in traditional commodity markets—an effort to avoid losing market share to online betting platforms. 🎲 ❄️ Ukraine Cold Threat & Wheat Support Extremely cold temperatures are forecast across much of Ukraine early next week, with readings potentially plunging well below zero. A large share of the country’s winter wheat crop currently lacks protective snow cover, raising winterkill concerns. These risks helped support wheat futures as traders also assessed lingering impacts from last week’s U.S. winter storm. 🌱 Soybeans Ease on Brazil Supply Soybean futures softened as Brazil’s harvest ramps up and expectations build for a record-large crop. After completing initial U.S. purchases, China is expected to shift more demand toward Brazilian supplies. A weak U.S. dollar, however, continues to provide underlying support by improving export competitiveness. 🚢 Weekly Export Sales U.S. corn export sales slowed from last week’s near-record pace, while soybean sales also declined. Wheat sales came in near the upper end of expectations. Japan was the top buyer for corn and wheat, while China led soybean purchases. 🛢️ Oil Rallies on Middle East Risk Crude oil prices surged amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions. Markets are reacting to fears of supply disruptions, particularly the risk of instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint. 🌧️ US Drought Update USDA’s latest drought monitor showed limited improvement across much of the Corn Belt due to frozen ground conditions, though some areas did see relief. Drought conditions worsened in parts of the High Plains.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Grain futures finished higher Wednesday as a weaker US dollar, biofuel headlines, and weather concerns provided support across ag and macro markets. Here’s what moved markets today 👇 🌽 Grain Markets Corn and soybeans ended the session modestly higher, supported by a sharply weaker US dollar, which improves US export competitiveness. President Trump said Congress is close to approving year-round E15, and that new biofuel guidelines are nearing completion—adding support to corn demand expectations. Wheat also closed higher as traders continue to assess potential crop impacts from the recent winter storm. In my view, developing dryness and a hot/dry forecast in Argentina likely played a role in row crop strength as well. See the map from our friends at CropProphet below. 🌾 Ethanol Update US ethanol production declined modestly last week, though output remains higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks also fell week over week and year over year. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins weakened across the Corn Belt and are currently negative to breakeven, reflecting softer profitability. Margins improved slightly following Monday’s corn selloff. 🐄 Livestock & Animal Health The NCBA warned that it is likely only a matter of time before New World screwworm reaches the US. NCBA President Buck Wehrbein said the pest is more likely to enter via wildlife than cattle imports and emphasized that the US successfully eradicated screwworm in the 1960s. Recent rumors of screwworm already reaching the US triggered sharp selling in live and feeder cattle futures last week. 🥇 Precious Metals & Margins CME Group raised margin requirements on precious metal futures following the historic rally in gold and silver. Higher margins mean traders will need more capital to hold positions, potentially limiting participation by smaller traders. Silver and gold both hit record highs before settling lower on the day. For perspective: silver at ~$117/oz is roughly equivalent to trading $117 corn or soybeans, with a contract value near $585,000. 🏦 Federal Reserve The Fed held interest rates steady, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut. Inflation remains above target, while labor markets show signs of stabilization. Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, after which President Trump will appoint a new Fed chair. Futures markets are pricing in limited rate cuts this year and none in 2027. 👉 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re watching in grains, livestock, or macro. Staying informed matters—especially in markets like these.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back to the channel! In today’s update, we cover Trump’s comments on year-round E15, growing weakness in the U.S. dollar, 2026 acreage debates, heat stress in Argentina, fresh USDA flash sales, and China’s latest soybean buying behavior. ⛽🇺🇸 E15, Trump & The Fed President Trump visited Iowa and said Congress is very close to approving year-round E15 sales Comments come after the White House failed to include E15 language in the current funding bill.  Trump declared the U.S. is entering a “golden age.” He said a new Fed Chair announcement is coming soon and predicted significantly lower interest rates.  💵📉 U.S. Dollar Breakdown The dollar hit its weakest level in nearly four years.  Pressure is coming from policy uncertainty, fiscal risks, and political polarization.  Euro, yen, and Swiss franc are at multi-year highs.  Emerging-market currencies are trading at record levels.  Investors are paying record premiums to hedge against further dollar weakness.  🌽🌱 2026 Acreage Debate S&P Global estimates corn acreage at 95 million and soybeans at 84.5 million.  Higher corn input costs and crop rotation favor soybean.  China’s renewed soybean purchases add support to bean acres.  NCGA projects an $180/acre loss for corn.  Pro Farmer notes fertilizer already applied and historical trends could keep corn acres elevated.  Crop insurance guarantees in February will be key.  🔥🇦🇷 Argentina Weather Stress Temps nearing 104°F across major growing regions.  Limited rain until February raises yield risks.  USDA estimates: 53 mmt corn, 48.5 mmt soybeans.  Planting nearly complete, but pasture conditions are deteriorating.  Meal markets remain quiet; bean oil strong amid biofuel sentiment.  🚢📊 USDA Flash Sales 110,000 mt of corn sold to unknown destinations (2025/26) 306,000 mt of sorghum sold to unknown destinations (2025/26) First U.S. sorghum flash sale since August 2024.  🇨🇳🌎 China Soybean Buying China booked at least 25 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for Mar–Apr shipment.  Brazil holds a strong price advantage over U.S. beans.  China has now fulfilled its ~12 mmt U.S. purchase commitment.  Recent U.S. buying appears obligation-driven, not structural.  With large South American crops expected, China likely avoids U.S. beans until new crop this fall. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🧪 Fertilizer Market & USDA Action The USDA is taking a closer look at potential collusion in the fertilizer industry. Last week, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden accused fertilizer giants Nutrien and Mosaic of working to limit supply and keep prices elevated. The two companies accounted for more than 90% of North American phosphate fertilizer and potash production last year. A proposed new potash mine in Saskatchewan could weaken their market control and add supply to the U.S. market as early as next year. USDA officials say they are closely monitoring fertilizer markets and could take action to boost competition if needed. Vaden also took aim at farm equipment manufacturers, backing the administration’s push for right-to-repair protections for farmers. 🌽 Biofuels Policy & 45Z Tax Credit Clean Fuels Alliance America is urging the Trump administration to release the proposed 45Z tax credit rules. The request comes after the White House completed its review of the rule. According to the biofuels group, clearer guidance is needed to reduce uncertainty and support biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel production. They warned that continued delays could jeopardize investments, production, and rural jobs, while final rules could boost commodity demand and rural economic activity. President Trump is scheduled to speak today in Clive, Iowa, where energy and economic issues are expected to be front and center. While there’s some chatter about a possible biofuel announcement, nothing is confirmed. 🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybean Markets Wheat futures moved lower on Monday. The CBOT March contract fell to around $5.23 after earlier touching the highest level since mid-December. Cold weather in the High Plains raised concerns over crop damage, but snowfall helped insulate much of the wheat belt. Some damage was reported in parts of Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and northwestern Kansas. 🚢 Export Inspections U.S. corn shipments were strong last week. USDA reported 1.5 million metric tons of corn inspected for export, higher than both the previous week and last year. Soybean inspections totaled 1.3 million metric tons, slightly lower week-to-week but sharply higher year-over-year, with China accounting for the majority of shipments. Wheat inspections were weaker, trailing both last week and last year. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update AgRural raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop again, now calling for a record harvest. Corn production estimates were also nudged higher. Soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting are both running ahead of last year’s pace, while first-crop corn harvest is slightly behind. Rainfall has been mostly average, though southern areas remain somewhat dry. Based on current estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop would be substantially larger than the U.S. crop.  🔥 Natural Gas & Winter Storm Impact Natural gas prices surged to their highest level in years as Winter Storm Fern swept across the U.S., driving up heating demand. The storm knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of customers and disrupted roughly 10% of U.S. natural gas production. In response, the Department of Energy issued emergency orders aimed at stabilizing power grids and reducing blackout risks in New England and Texas.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ Government Shutdown Risk The risk of a partial government shutdown is rising as the Senate prepares to vote later this week on a House-passed $1.2 trillion funding package. Following another fatal shooting involving federal immigration agents in Minnesota, Democratic lawmakers are threatening to oppose the bill due to DHS and ICE funding concerns. Democrats argue the package lacks reforms to rein in ICE. While funding for many other agencies is included, there may still be enough Democratic support to avoid a shutdown. The last shutdown lasted 43 days and delayed key USDA and CFTC reports. Polymarket odds of a shutdown jumped sharply over the weekend. There is growing concern that previously approved FBA payments, currently slated for late February, could be delayed if a shutdown occurs. ❄️ Winter Storm & Cold Impacts This weekend’s winter storm delivered widespread snow and extreme cold across the Plains. Parts of HRW wheat country in the Southern Plains received beneficial snowfall, reducing winterkill risk. However, below-zero temperatures combined with snow created severe cold stress for livestock, limiting weight gains and increasing risks for producers in calving season. Wind chills in the Northern Plains plunged to extreme levels, while portions of Texas and Oklahoma face record lows with freezing temperatures expected to persist. Single-digit temperatures may linger another day or two in HRW wheat areas, while SRW wheat country in the Midwest remains locked in frigid conditions this week. 🌽 Grain Markets Corn futures advanced on Friday, led by strong export demand. The most active March contract settled higher, supported by near-record export sales and competitive U.S. prices on the global market. Growing concern over dry conditions in parts of South America has added uncertainty around crop potential. Soybean and wheat futures also posted gains. ⛽ E15 Left Out (Again) Farm groups and ethanol advocates are pushing back after Congress once again omitted year-round E15 sales from the funding package. Instead, lawmakers plan to form an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to study the issue. 🚢 Export Sales U.S. export sales were impressive last week: Corn sales set a marketing-year high, far exceeding expectations, with unknown destinations as the top buyer.  Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year high, with China leading purchases.  Wheat sales surpassed expectations, with unknown destinations again the largest buyer.  Overall, export demand remains a major source of support for the grain markets. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning In the latest Commitment of Traders report, large money managers were net sellers across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The net short position in corn is now the largest since late October, reflecting continued bearish positioning despite recent market strength. 🐄 Cattle on Feed Friday’s Cattle on Feed report came in largely neutral. Cattle on feed were below last year but slightly above expectations. Placements and marketings were both near or above pre-report estimates. Notably, heifers made up a large share of cattle on feed, signaling that many are still being fed rather than retained for herd rebuilding—an important long-term signal for the cattle market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm Aid & Policy Update Additional farm aid was not included in the current government funding package, catching many lawmakers and farm groups off guard. Senate Republicans had pushed just last week to add up to $15B in aid, but that language was left out. With aid excluded for now, supporters say relief may need to come via supplemental appropriations or future legislation. Congress must pass the funding package by January 30 to avoid another government shutdown. It was also reported yesterday that nationwide E15 language was again dropped, though GOP leaders are discussing a possible supplemental bill that could allow year-round E15 sales. Major Winter Storm Risk A major winter storm is forecast to impact the Southern US this weekend. While the exact track remains uncertain, over 70 million people from Dallas to Little Rock to Nashville are currently under a winter storm watch. Snow, ice, dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are possible.  Snow cover remains limited across key HRW wheat areas in the Southern Plains. Temperatures in western Kansas and surrounding regions could fall into the single digits, raising the risk of winter kill depending on snow totals and duration. Livestock stress is also a concern. US–China Trade Watch US and Chinese officials may soon hold another round of trade talks ahead of the planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. According to the US Trade Representative, negotiations would focus on common goods and services, avoiding sensitive areas like tech and national security. China has already fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are now looking ahead to China’s pledge to buy 25 mmt annually through 2028, though Trump continues to push for larger volumes. Europe, Greenland & Tariffs President Trump announced he will refrain from imposing new tariffs on European countries, following meetings at the World Economic Forum. He stated that a framework for a future deal involving Greenland has been reached, marking a major shift from prior tariff threats. While details remain limited, Denmark continues to oppose any US takeover. Grain Market Recap Soybean futures rebounded Wednesday, with the most-active Mar26 contract gaining roughly 12 cents, settling near $10.65. Support came from a slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest due to rainfall in northern regions, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent pointing to ongoing Chinese demand for US soybeans. Global Protein Trade China has reopened its market to Canadian beef imports, ending a ban that had been in place since 2021. Initial shipments are expected to be small, but the move is a positive long-term opportunity for Canada’s cattle industry. Meanwhile, US beef exports to China have declined sharply over the past year amid ongoing trade tensions. India & Wheat Exports India has approved the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and related products. Wheat exports had been restricted since May 2022, but a strong monsoon is expected to boost domestic supplies. India is typically self-sufficient in wheat and is sometimes a net exporter. Its re-entry into the export market is considered a bearish factor for global wheat prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China & U.S. Soybeans China has reportedly completed its ~12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Shipments are expected to move by May Focus now shifts to China’s 25 mmt annual soybean pledge over the next three years Despite that pledge, South American soybeans remain more competitive, likely capping U.S. demand Ongoing economic strain and a smaller hog herd could further weigh on Chinese soybean usage 📌 Important context: USDA has only confirmed 8.1 mmt of soybean sales to China so far Roughly half of recent “Unknown” sales likely end up in China, plus some unreported intra-house business Even at 12 mmt, purchases are well below the ~22.5 mmt China bought last marketing year That’s why USDA cut its U.S. soybean export forecast last week 📉 Grain Markets Soybeans: Mar ’26 contract slipped ~5¢, settling near $10.53 Pressure came from: Rising geopolitical tensions over Greenland Expectations for a record Brazilian soybean crop Corn: Mar ’26 futures eased ~1¢ to $4.24 🚜 Farm Economy Reality Check Farmers face tight margins after years of weak prices and rising costs New York farmer Ron Robbins used detailed field-level data to: Fallow unprofitable acres Improve marginal land Shift some acres from soybeans to corn His takeaway: the downturn may be the new normal—reassessment is no longer optional 🚢 Weekly Export Shipments (USDA) Corn: Strong print, beating expectations Soybeans: Near top end of estimates; China took 46% of the week’s volume Wheat: Also near the high end of expectations YTD snapshot: Soybean shipments: well below last year Corn shipments: well ahead of last year China-bound soybean cargoes shipped via both PNW and Gulf 🌱 Flash Sale USDA confirmed a soybean meal sale to the Philippines for next marketing year 🌍 Macro & Markets Japan’s bond market saw sharp turmoil after fiscal concerns and a weak auction Long-dated yields spiked, spilling into global credit markets S&P 500 logged its largest one-day drop since October A weaker dollar failed to spark meaningful buying in ag ₿ Bitcoin Watch Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has gone all-in again: Massive recent Bitcoin purchases Now the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally Strategy uses Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve, funded largely through debt issuance CEO Michael Saylor remains controversial due to the aggressive approach

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚜 Farm Aid & Government Funding Senate Republicans are pushing for an additional farm aid package, potentially totaling up to $15 billion (not yet confirmed). The proposal includes: Additional bridge payments Support for specialty crop producers Higher farm ownership and operating loan limits Aid for farmers who suffered losses above the national average or were forced to sell at depressed prices Lawmakers plan to attach the measure to upcoming government funding legislation Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments remain scheduled for February 28 A possible government shutdown on January 30 could: Delay FBA payments Delay any new farm aid package The House and Senate have passed several spending bills, but key issues remain unresolved 🌍 Global Trade & Geopolitics President Trump announced new tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland 10% tariffs begin February 1 Increase to 25% on June 1 Tariffs remain until the US is able to purchase Greenland The EU is weighing retaliatory trade measures Trump also said he would consider using force if negotiations fail Market reaction: S&P 500 futures down 1.8% European and UK equities sharply lower US dollar weaker against major currencies 🇨🇦🇨🇳 Canada–China Trade Deal China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1 Tariffs also reduced on: Lobsters Crabs Peas Canada will impose a 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs China has reportedly purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since October Canada continues diversifying trade away from the US 🌱 South American Crop Update Brazil’s soybean harvest is ahead of schedule 2% harvested as of last Thursday vs. 1.7% at the same time last year Rainfall has been near normal overall, with slightly drier conditions in southern areas World Weather notes a La Niña-style dry bias, but says it’s unlikely to threaten production 📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC) Large speculators were heavy sellers last week: Corn: Net sellers of 78k contracts Net short now 91k (largest since late October) Soybeans: Net sellers of 46k contracts Net short 20k (largest since mid-October) Wheat: Net buyers of 1k SRW contracts 🚢 Export Activity USDA reported multiple corn flash sales: 298k mt to unknown destinations 120k mt to Japan Both sales are for the 2025/26 marketing year Accumulated corn sales are now 29% higher than last year 🐄 Cattle Market Shock Live and feeder cattle futures plunged Friday on screwworm concerns Texas officials report 14 active cases within 200 miles of the US border The pest is expected to eventually reach the US Market reaction: Live cattle down as much as $4.45 Feeder cattle down as much as $8.10

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm Economy Under Pressure Headlines this week focused squarely on the deteriorating US farm economy. The Wall Street Journal published an article detailing the challenges facing US soybean farmers, including high input costs, weak commodity prices, rising competition from Brazil, and sluggish export demand. The piece also referenced USDA’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, noting that while helpful in the short term, it does not address deeper structural issues. Reuters published similar coverage, emphasizing tighter bank lending standards, increasing financial stress, and a rise in farm bankruptcies. Together, the articles underscore mounting pressure on farmers and the broader ripple effects across rural America.  Soybean Oil & Biofuels Soybean oil futures surged on Thursday, gaining as much as 3.8% on expectations that the Trump administration will finalize US biofuel-blending quotas by March. Last June, the EPA proposed a sizable increase in biomass-based diesel targets, which would significantly boost soybean oil demand. There is optimism that stronger biofuel demand could help offset weak soybean export performance. NOPA Crush Update The National Oilseed Processors Association released its December crush report, showing US soybean crush at its second-highest level on record. NOPA members processed 224.99 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly above trade expectations. For full-year 2025, crush totaled nearly 2.4 billion bushels—an 8% increase from 2024. End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose to 1.64 billion pounds, the highest level since May 2024, up sharply from both last month and last year, though just below average trade estimates. Brazil Soybean Crop Brazil’s soybean crop is shaping up to be record large. Agroconsult raised its estimate to 182.2 mmt, citing strong field conditions and limited widespread issues. Meanwhile, Conab trimmed its estimate slightly to 176.1 mmt due to marginally lower yield expectations. Even so, the crop remains record large and would exceed last season’s production.  Export Sales US corn export sales impressed last week, with net sales of 1.1 mmt. While down from the prior four-week average, the number was a strong rebound from the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer. Soybean sales exceeded expectations at 2.1 mmt, up sharply week-over-week and well above the recent average. China was the largest buyer. Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations at 156,300 mt, with unknown destinations leading purchases. USDA Flash Sales USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday: Soybeans sold to China and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery Additional soybean sales for 2026/27 delivery Corn sales to Japan and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery Drought Monitor Update USDA’s latest drought data showed mixed but generally improving conditions across parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains. Above-normal precipitation helped reduce drought intensity in portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas, while conditions worsened slightly in southern Missouri. US Areas Experiencing Drought Corn: 28% Soybeans: 34% Winter Wheat: 41% Spring Wheat: 10% Cattle: 34%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Argentina Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop is shaping up to be record large. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate to 62 mmt, well above the prior record of 51.5 mmt set in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects more planted acres than expected. Despite recent hot and dry conditions, crop stress has been limited, and rainfall is forecast for key growing areas. For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn crop at 53 mmt. 📈 Corn & Soybean Futures Corn and soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, bouncing from oversold levels. March corn settled near $4.22 March soybeans closed around $10.43 The gains were largely technical after futures fell to their lowest levels since October earlier this week following Monday’s bearish USDA report. 🔥 US Ethanol Production US ethanol production surged to a new all-time high last week. Output jumped to 1.2 million barrels per day, crushing the prior record set in December. Ethanol stocks also climbed to a record weekly high of 24.47 million barrels. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain solid across the Corn Belt, running 10 to 40 cents positive based on spot corn, DDGs, and input prices. Margins improved following Monday’s sharp sell-off in corn futures. 🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports China imported a record 111.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, topping the prior record set in 2024. Imports rose 6.5% year over year as buyers front-loaded shipments from Brazil and Argentina amid trade war uncertainty. China largely avoided US soybeans during the year due to President Trump’s tariffs, but purchases resumed after the October trade truce. Traders estimate China has already bought nearly 10 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to under the agreement. 🚢 USDA Flash Sales The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday: 136,000 mt of corn sold to South Korea 334,000 mt of soybeans sold to China Both were for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. 🥈 Silver & Gold Hit Records Silver prices exploded to a new record high, surging more than 5% and breaking above $90 per ounce for the first time. The rally was fueled by renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, expectations for additional rate cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions. Silver is now up nearly 30% year-to-date and almost triple where it traded a year ago. Gold also hit record highs, with prices up more than 70% over the past year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Ethanol & E15 Push The Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum. The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes. Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term: Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offs Consumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy it Production capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacity An E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars. 🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCA President Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1. Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below. 🥩 Beef Prices Hit New Records Ground beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%. Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below. 🌱 Soybean Flash Sales USDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday: 168,000 mt to China 152,404 mt to Mexico Both are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. 📊 Inflation Update The December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022. Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below. 🌎 Largest US Landowner The owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres. Other top landowners include: Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acres John Malone: ~2.2 million acres Ted Turner: ~2.0 million acres Jeff Bezos: ~462,000 acres Bill Gates: ~275,000 acres

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Corn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA. The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise. USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record. 🌾 Winter Wheat US winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million. Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California. Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over year Soft red winter wheat: modest increase White winter wheat: sharp decline 🚜 Farm Policy & Aid The American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses. Duvall is urging: Expanded trade opportunities Labor reform Year-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costs Farm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs. 🚢 Exports & Demand US soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total. Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectations Wheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over week USDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn: 204,000 mt to South Korea 310,000 mt to unknown destinations Both for 2025/26 delivery. 🏛️ Macro & Markets Republican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets. Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks) USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report. • Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large • Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly • US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower • Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly • Corn exports are forecast at record highs • Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China • World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged 🇨🇳 China Buys More US Soybeans China purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment. • At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf • The remainder will ship from the PNW • The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin • Several smaller flash sales were also reported last week Despite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship. 🚢 USDA Flash Sale Update USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. • Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year 🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest Begins Brazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal. • 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39% • Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year • Warm, dry weather is expected to persist Both Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning For the week ending January 6: • Funds were net buyers of corn • Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend) • Net sellers of SRW wheat 💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate Cap President Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%. • Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability • Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments • Proposal could take effect as early as January 20 Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Preview USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, alongside the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Analysts are expecting a notable decline in U.S. corn production and yield, while soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly. U.S. ending stocks for corn and wheat are projected to edge lower, while soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. World-ending stocks are forecast to remain mostly unchanged, except for wheat, where a sizable increase is anticipated. 📉 2026 Corn Price Outlook Ample global corn supplies are expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. University of Missouri Extension ag economist Ben Brown expects U.S. corn acreage to fall to 95 million acres this year as farmers respond to tight margins. Even with fewer acres, last year’s record corn crop continues to weigh on prices. Brown sees limited upside unless a major South American weather event hits yields—and even then, any rally is likely to be short-lived. Ethanol demand remains a bright spot, and finalized biofuel regulations could provide additional support. Ultimately, meaningful price improvement will require reduced global production. 🚢 Weekly Export Sales U.S. corn export sales were weak last week. For the week ending January 1, net corn sales hit a marketing-year low at 377,600 mt (15 million bushels), down 49% from the previous week and 76% below the prior four-week average. South Korea was the top buyer. Despite the poor weekly number, accumulated corn sales remain 30% above last year. Net soybean sales totaled 877,900 mt (32 million bushels), down 26% week-over-week and 42% below the four-week average. China accounted for roughly half of total sales. Net wheat sales came in at 118,700 mt (4 million bushels), below expectations for the second straight week. Sales were up 24% from last week but down 55% from the four-week average. The Philippines was the largest buyer. 🐄 Cattle Markets & Screwworm Update New World screwworm cases in Mexico have dropped sharply in recent weeks. Mexico’s ag ministry reports cases are down 57% since mid-December, with 492 active cases concentrated in a handful of states. Construction of a sterile-fly breeding facility in southern Mexico is roughly halfway complete and is expected to begin operations in the first half of this year. Despite improvement, three cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas near the Texas border since late December. The ongoing border closure, in place since May 2025, continues to tighten feeder cattle supplies and push cattle prices to record highs. 🌱 China Soybean Flash Sale USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Thursday. U.S. exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. China has now completed more than 80% of its 12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase agreement. 🌡️ Drought Monitor Update USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt following a warm, dry winter. About 37% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing some level of drought, up from 29% at this time last year. The High Plains also saw temperatures well above normal—some areas running as much as 15°F above average—resulting in the driest start to winter on record in parts of the region.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Grain Markets Soybean futures rallied on Wednesday, with the Mar26 contract jumping nearly 11 cents to settle around $10.67. The move was driven by renewed Chinese demand, including reports that Sinograin purchased multiple U.S. soybean cargoes, plus a confirmed flash sale to China earlier this week. Corn and wheat futures also closed higher. 🥩 New U.S. Dietary Guidelines Updated U.S. dietary guidelines place a stronger emphasis on protein intake and full-fat dairy, while discouraging ultra-processed foods, added sugars, and refined carbs. The new guidance calls for protein at every meal and higher daily intake levels than previously recommended. Unlike past guidelines, there’s less focus on plant-based proteins or whole grains. The American Heart Association pushed back, warning of potential cardiovascular risks tied to higher consumption of red meat, salt, and full-fat dairy. 🌽 Ethanol Update U.S. ethanol production declined modestly last week, while ethanol stocks increased. Despite the production dip, margins remain solid across much of the Corn Belt, with many plants still running comfortably in positive territory based on current corn, DDG, and input prices. 🏠 Housing & Interest Rates Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. Lower borrowing costs have boosted both home purchase activity and refinancing interest, with buyers responding quickly to improved affordability. 🏘️ Institutional Home Buying Debate President Trump proposed banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes as part of a broader housing affordability push. Markets reacted negatively, though economists note institutional investors own only a small share of the total housing stock. Critics warn the policy could reduce housing supply and potentially worsen affordability rather than improve it.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn Demand The Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake. The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch. Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage.  🌱 China Buys U.S. Soybeans USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement. Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter.  🚢 Brazil Export Update Brazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand. Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season.  🚜 Farmer Sentiment Slips U.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier. Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced.  📈 Stocks, Oil & Venezuela U.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs. Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌎 Geopolitics & Oil The U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela. For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply. President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy. Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power. We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including: Cuba / Soviet Union (1962) Grenada / Soviet Union (1983) Panama / Noriega (1989) 🚢 Export Inspections USDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week. Soybeans: 980,518 mt Up from the prior week Down vs. last year China accounted for roughly 40% Corn: 1.2 mmt Lower vs. last week Strongly higher vs. last year Wheat: 183,305 mt Below expectations Sharply lower week-over-week and year-over-year Marketing-year-to-date shipments: Soybeans: sharply behind last year Corn: well ahead Wheat: modestly higher 📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25. Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyer Corn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by Mexico Wheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination 🌱 Brazil Crop Update StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso. Conab: 177.6 mmt USDA: 175 mmt Based on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season. Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying. 💰 Fund Positioning The CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data. Funds continued selling corn and soybeans Soybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-November Small net buying was seen in SRW wheat 🥇 Metals & Macro Gold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions. Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Geopolitics & Energy The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend. Both have been indicted on multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses. Maduro is now being held in a federal prison in New York and is expected to make his first court appearance today in Manhattan. The unprecedented military intervention drew condemnation from Russia and China, while Argentina expressed support. President Trump said the move was necessary to address drug trafficking and what he described as “stolen oil,” adding that the US will be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil industry going forward. Crude oil futures fell on last night’s open but are trading near unchanged this morning. The bigger selloff was in natural gas, which is down more than 2.5% early today. Venezuela holds the largest crude oil reserves in the world, though accessing them will take years and massive capital investment. The country also has large natural gas reserves, which could be easier to develop. 🚜 Farm Aid Update USDA announced payment rates under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program on New Year’s Eve. The agency will distribute $12 billion total, with $11 billion allocated to one-time payments for row crops and $1 billion directed to specialty crops and sugar. Payment rates: Corn: $44.36 per acre Soybeans: $30.88 per acre Wheat: $39.35 per acre Payments are based on 2025 planted acres. Second crop acres are eligible, while prevent plant acres are excluded. Farmers are expected to receive payments by the end of February. See graphics below. Click HERE and HERE for USDA links. 🌱 Grain Markets & Weather Soybean futures fell on Friday, with the Mar26 contract down nearly 10 cents before recovering. China’s purchase program now appears to be a mostly “known” factor for the current marketing year, with expectations that China will reach the 12mmt US purchase target over the next couple of months. Brazil’s forecast turns slightly drier early this week, while southern Argentina remains dry for at least another week.  🐄 Livestock Mexico reported new cases of New World screwworm last week, including a goat in central Mexico and a calf in Tamaulipas near the US border. No additional animals tested positive at either site. The news sent live and feeder cattle futures sharply higher. The US–Mexico border is expected to remain closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports for the foreseeable future. Since November 2024, authorities have recorded over 13,000 cases, with several hundred currently active.  ⛽ Ethanol US ethanol production rose to a weekly high last week at 1.12 million barrels per day. Output was higher week-over-week and year-over-year. Ethanol stocks increased slightly but remain below last year’s levels. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain positive across the Corn Belt, ranging from roughly 5 to 25 cents per gallon.  🚢 Export Sales USDA released another delayed export sales report: Soybean sales missed expectations and were sharply lower week-over-week, with China accounting for most of the total Corn sales exceeded expectations, led by Mexico Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌏 China Grain & Soybean Strategy Update China is pushing to reduce its reliance on grain and soybean imports in the name of food security. State media says Beijing plans to boost domestic grain and oilseed production through better seed quality, upgraded machinery, and more advanced farming practices. Trade tensions with the U.S. have accelerated this shift toward ag self-sufficiency. China also plans to support farm incomes, protect migrant worker employment, and extend rural land-use contracts by an additional 30 years after 2027. China’s grain production hit a record high this year, rising 1.2% to 714.9mmt. Corn and wheat self-sufficiency looks achievable, but soybeans remain a much tougher challenge.  📉 Grain & Oilseed Market Recap Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday, with the Mar26 contract slipping about a penny to settle near $10.62. This came despite China returning to the U.S. market with a soybean flash sale, as expectations for a record Brazilian crop continued to pressure prices. Corn futures moved lower on South American crop optimism, while wheat futures also finished lower amid hopes for progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations for a record Argentine wheat harvest.  🌧️ South American Weather Update Brazilian weather continues to support ideas of a large soybean crop. According to CropProphet data, Brazilian soybean areas received 106% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days (production-weighted). Forecasts remain favorable, with near-normal rainfall expected in both the 1–7 and 8–14 day periods, though amounts will vary. Argentina is a different story, with very little rain expected over the next week. Euro model guidance suggests rainfall returns to normal in the 8–14 day window, with rains likely returning to corn and soybean areas around Tuesday next week. Some southern regions may wait longer. 🌾 Argentina Crop Update Argentina’s wheat crop is now projected at a record 27.8mmt, up from 27.1mmt previously, thanks to favorable weather and strong yields. About 93% of the wheat crop has been harvested. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also reports soybean planting at 82% and corn planting at 84%. Hot and dry conditions ahead could still pose risks for corn and soybeans.  🚢 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported soybean flash sales Tuesday: • 136,000mt (5 mil bu) sold to China for 2025/26 delivery • 231,000mt (8 mil bu) sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery 🏦 Federal Reserve & Interest Rates The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady near term. December meeting minutes show growing resistance to additional cuts as inflation pressures persist. Strong economic growth and consumer spending have reduced the urgency for easing, even as unemployment has ticked higher. The Fed’s dot plot now projects just one rate cut in all of 2026. Markets are pricing an 83% chance of no cut in January, with slightly higher odds for a cut in March. 👉 Subscribe for daily grain market updates 💬 Drop your thoughts or questions in the comments

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean Export Inspections US soybean shipments disappointed again last week. Export inspections came in near the low end of expectations, with shipments well below both last week and last year. China was barely present, accounting for only a small share of total inspections. On a marketing-year basis, soybean shipments continue to lag badly compared to last year. 🌽 Corn & Wheat Shipments Corn inspections beat expectations, even though they slipped from the prior week. Compared to last year, corn shipments remain strong and well ahead on a cumulative basis. Wheat inspections also topped estimates, though they were sharply lower week-to-week and modestly below last year’s pace. 🚢 Flash Sale & Export Sales USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to Egypt early this week. Despite that sale, total accumulated soybean sales for the marketing year remain significantly behind last year, reinforcing ongoing demand concerns. 🌎 China Shifts Away from US Ag China continues pouring money into Latin American ports, railways, and logistics. These investments are designed to lock in cheaper, faster access to South American ag products—especially soybeans. With Chinese involvement now spread across dozens of ports, global trade flows are shifting in a way that may be extremely difficult for the US to reverse, even if trade relations improve. 📉 Grain Futures Slide Corn futures dropped sharply on Monday amid speculation that China could release domestic grain reserves, potentially displacing corn with older wheat in feed rations. Soybeans followed lower, pressured by weak export demand and ongoing global competition. Wheat futures also finished the day in the red. 🥩 Beef Market Outlook Beef prices could stay elevated as Brazilian cattle production slows. Brazil is entering a contraction phase as producers retain heifers, while the US cattle herd remains at its smallest level in decades. Even with lower production, Brazil is still expected to remain the world’s top beef exporter. 🪙 Silver Takes a Hit Silver prices saw a massive one-day sell-off after Friday’s historic rally. The drop was driven by profit-taking and technical pressure rather than a fundamental shift. Despite the sharp decline, silver remains dramatically higher on the year, with volatility still front and center.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🪙 Precious Metals Silver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday. 💵 US Dollar & Interest Rates The US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017. See charts below. 🌧️ South American Weather Dry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks. 🌽 Grain Markets Corn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued. 🌍 Geopolitics President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚁 Drone Industry Shock A new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry. On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market. The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future. U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left. 🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition) USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday. Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior week China was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total sales Corn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmt Japan was the largest buyer Wheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchases Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt. USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th. 🌱 Grain Market Update Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday. The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop. While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside. 🇺🇸 U.S. Economy Update The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter. GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending. Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth. 🥇 Precious Metals Explosion Precious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday. Silver surged past $70/oz Gold climbed above $4,490/oz Platinum and palladium also moved sharply higher The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data Quality The US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff. Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired. The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year. A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing. 🚢 Weekly Export Inspections US soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China. Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt. Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf. 🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Outlook AgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso. Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead. 🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea Tensions Wheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session. 📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export Sales USDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year. Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases. 💰 Gold & Macro Markets Gold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher. 👍 If you find this helpful, hit like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments. 🌾 Staying informed matters—especially right now.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 USDA Farm Aid Update The USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package. Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs. Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid. USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations. Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end. 🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells Farmland Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny. Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income. In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment. Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale. The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner. 🌽 Brazil Corn Crop Trimmed Safras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast. The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt. Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected. 🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in November China imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year. Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY). Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY). Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%. Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans. Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data. USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments. 🚨 USDA Flash Sale U.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery. Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. For the week ending December 9: Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record. The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end. 🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed Report As of December 1: Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY. November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996. Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations. The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction. 🏭 More Packing Plant Closures Possible Tight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins. Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks. Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain. Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues. Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand. Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year. Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows. Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying. There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business. 🥩 Beef Prices Beef prices remain near record highs. Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels. Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut. The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand. The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers. Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated. 🌱 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half. 📦 Export Sales Report Corn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers. Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer. Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases. 📉 Inflation Update CPI eased in November, coming in below expectations. Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation. The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy. There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December. 🌧️ Drought Monitor Scattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio. Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri. Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged. US Areas Experiencing Drought Corn: 32% Soybeans: 33% Winter Wheat: 36% Spring Wheat: 16% Cattle: 27%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On? Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week. Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume. 📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday: Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations Corn sold to Mexico A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market. 🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue. Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside. ⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals. Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year. 💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December. ⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt. 📌 Bottom Line China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏥 ACA Health Insurance & Farmers Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums. Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage. Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain. As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks. 🌱 Grain Markets Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37. Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10. 🇨🇳 China & Soybeans China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies. Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle. The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans. 👷 US Labor Market The labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020. Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation. Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased. 🛢️ Oil & Energy Oil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021. The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush NOPA released its November crush report on Monday US soybean crush hit an all-time November record Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations 📉 Soybean Futures Pressure Soybean futures extended losses on Monday The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72 Market pressure continues from: Slow Chinese buying Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation 🚢 Export Inspections Update US soybean inspections disappointed last week Shipments were well below last year’s pace About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement 🧪 Fertilizer Market News The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk 📦 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery Corn sold to unknown destinations 📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition) USDA released another outdated export sales report Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China Corn sales slipped from the prior week Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean, Corn & Wheat Markets Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower. 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time.  🚢 USDA Flash Sales & China Watch USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher.  🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical Commodities Hedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses.  ⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas Delayed The EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Fertilizer Markets Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia. While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions. Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production. Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers. For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery. Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP. 🌎 Export Flash Sales Soybeans: 264,000 mt to China (25/26) 266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) Corn: 186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) 📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations Mexico was the top buyer Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week Germany was the largest buyer Small China cancellation Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply Unknown destinations led buying 🇧🇷 South America Update Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt Still a record crop if realized The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting About 90% planted as of early December First exportable supplies expected early January Total exports estimated at 112 mmt 🌦️ US Drought Monitor Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma Areas Experiencing Drought: 🌽 Corn: 31% 🌱 Soybeans: 31% 🌾 Winter Wheat: 34% 🌾 Spring Wheat: 16% 🐄 Cattle: 25%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏦 Fed Cuts Rates for the Third Straight Meeting The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates another quarter point on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate down to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest since September 2022. Three FOMC members dissented — the most pushback since 2019 — signaling deep concern about the path forward. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the goal is to steady the labor market while keeping inflation moving toward the 2% target. The Fed’s new projections show just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, far fewer than markets expected. Some economists warn that stagflation is becoming a real risk — inflation that stays too high while job growth weakens. 👉 Prices keep rising while the economy slows, family budgets get squeezed, and fixing one problem risks worsening the other. 🌱 Soybeans Rebound on Flash Sales Soybean futures stabilized after multi-week lows. Jan26 beans +4¢, settling near $10.91 after USDA announced a 5 mil bu sale to China and 12 mil bu to unknown destinations. Gains were limited by ongoing confusion regarding China’s schedule for buying the agreed 12mmt of U.S. soybeans. Corn and wheat moved lower: • Mar26 corn −4¢ → ~$4.44 • Mar Chicago wheat −5¢ → ~$5.30 🚢 Fresh Flash Sales Reported Wednesday USDA confirmed new export activity for 2025/26 delivery: • 136,000mt soybeans → China (~5 mil bu) • 331,000mt soybeans → Unknown (~12 mil bu) • 120,000mt soybean cake & meal → Poland 🌾 Trump Administration Rolls Out $700M Regenerative Ag Pilot The White House announced a $700 million program under “Make America Healthy Again” to expand practices like cover crops, no-till, conservation planning, and whole-farm soil & water management. Farmers will apply through EQIP or CSP, with an emphasis on soil health, water quality, and habitat. 📝 Payment rates have not yet been released. ⚓ Ukraine Hits Russia’s Shadow Fleet Again Ukraine used Sea Baby drones to attack a large Suezmax tanker tied to Russia’s oil trade. The empty vessel (1 million-barrel capacity) suffered major damage. As these attacks continue: • Freight costs are expected to rise • Crews are increasingly wary of Black Sea movements • Putin warned he may retaliate against vessels controlled by Ukraine’s allies • He also suggested Russia could cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea entirely ⛽ US Ethanol Production Slips Weekly ethanol output fell to 1.11 million bpd (−1.9% vs. last week, +3% vs. last year). Stocks declined to 22.51 million barrels, slightly lower week-over-week and −2.1% versus last year. Margins have weakened: Reuters estimates break-even to +30¢ across the Corn Belt based on spot corn, DDGs, inputs, and product values.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 Soybean Purchase Deadline Confusion Questions remain over China’s commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline isn’t year-end but “end of the growing season.” Nobody seems to agree on what that actually means. The White House fact sheet indicated the end of 2025, while Greer insists there’s a discrepancy in the published deadline vs. the real one. So far this marketing year, China has purchased only 3mmt of US soybeans. The CNBC article we’re referencing is… interesting. Greer, Bessent, and former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber all seem to have different interpretations of the deadline.  📊 USDA Report—Soybeans Weak, Corn Strong Tuesday’s WASDE didn’t bring many surprises. • Soybean exports unchanged at 1.64B bu—a 13-year low • Ending stocks unchanged at 290M bu • Exports currently running ~40% below last year → further cuts likely Corn was the bright spot: • Record 3.2B bu corn export forecast • Ending stocks trimmed to 2.03B bu, lower than trade expected 🚜 Deere Responds on High Machinery Costs After President Trump’s call for lower tractor prices, John Deere says it is helping farmers cut costs—not by lowering sticker prices, but through automation that reduces labor and chemical use. Equipment inflation has been driven by: • Post-COVID manufacturing inflation • Tech advancements • Steel & aluminum tariffs 🐄 USDA Cuts 2026 Fat Cattle Price Forecast • New forecast: $235/cwt—down 4.5% from November • Still 5% above the 2025 projection USDA cited reduced packing capacity as the driver. Tyson is closing its Lexington, NE, beef plant and cutting the second shift at Amarillo. US beef imports for 2026 are now forecast at a record 5.45M lbs, supported by tariff relief on major suppliers like Brazil. 🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Grain Export Taxes Permanent tax cuts are coming soon: • Soybeans 24% → 22% • Soymeal/soyoil 24.5% → 22.5% • Corn 9.5% → 8.5% • Wheat 9.5% → 7.5% Milei’s government frames this as a step toward fully eliminating export tariffs. 🥈 Silver Breaks Record High Spot silver rallied ~4% Tuesday to $60.50/oz 📈 Drivers include: • Expected Fed rate cuts today • Newly added to US critical minerals list → tariff & supply concerns • Weaker dollar + geopolitical safe-haven flows Silver is now up ~110% YTD, beating gold and platinum.  📑 CFTC Data Catch-Up Accelerated Commitments of Traders Reports will be current by the end of December, not late January. Expect fast-tracked report releases over the next several weeks.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚜 Farm Aid & Tractor Prices President Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid package on Monday and urged ag equipment makers to lower tractor prices — blaming environmental regulations for higher costs. The administration plans to lift some of those rules to reduce equipment expenses. • $11B → one-time payments to row-crop farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program • $1B → specialty crops • Eligibility: AGI below $900k for 2022–24 tax years • Acreage reporting due by Dec 19 — 5pm ET • Payments expected by Feb 28, 2026 FBA looks much more like ECAP than the old MFP. Rates aren’t out yet. Covered crops: Barley, Chickpeas, Corn, Cotton, Lentils, Oats, Peanuts, Peas, Rice, Sorghum, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, Crambe, Flax, Mustard, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sesame & Sunflower. 📊 USDA Crop Production Report—Today 11:00am CST Traders expect minimal changes to US ending stocks: • Corn & wheat → slight declines • Soybeans → modest increase Global: slightly more beans & wheat, slightly fewer corn stocks. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook AgRural projects: • Corn: 135.3mmt (↓ from 141.1mmt record last year) • Soybeans: 178.5mmt (unchanged) Dry southern weather remains a risk to yields. The US crop is ~3.2× bigger than Brazil’s upcoming corn crop—but Brazil will export ~33% of production vs the US at 18–19%. 📦 🇨🇳 Flash Sale to China Another soybean flash sale Monday: • 132,000mt (5 mil bu) → China for 25/26 delivery Since late October, China has now booked 2.85mmt (105 mil bu) via flash sales. 🚢 Export Inspections Week ending Dec 4: • Soybeans: 1mmt—+9% vs wk prior but -41% vs last year • Corn: 1.5 mmt—above expectations, +36% vs last year • Wheat: 393kmt—+59% vs last year China finally showed up—119,895 mt of beans were inspected at the Gulf. PNW still quiet: only one cargo to Taiwan from WA/OR. 📝 Export Sales (still catch-up reports) Week ending Nov 6: • Beans: 510,600 mt—down 59% w/w (China lead buyer) • Corn: 979,500 mt—down 51% w/w (Japan lead buyer) • Wheat: 462,500 mt—up 8% w/w (Japan lead buyer)

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. The Trump administration is expected to announce a $12 billion aid package for farmers today. The announcement will take place around 2 this afternoon in Washington, DC. About $11 billion will go to crop farmers through the new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with the rest going toward other commodities. The funds have been authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be administered by the FSA. 🎯 China Soybean Purchases Back in Gear! China resumed buying US soybeans late last week. US exporters reported 462,000mt (17M bushels) sold to China for 25/26 delivery. Since late October, China’s total buys sit at 2.7mmt (~100M bu)… still a long way from the 12mmt commitment. 📉 🤝 US–China Trade Call US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held a “productive” video call Friday. The big talking point: the new trade truce and soybean commitments. 🗓️ The wrinkle: The White House originally said 12mmt by Dec 31, but last week Bessent suggested deliveries would instead occur by the end of February—raising fresh questions about the terms of this “commitment.” 📊 Fund Activity: Catch-Up CFTC Data The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report: Funds bought 76k corn contracts 🌽 Funds bought 83k soybean contracts 🌱 → Net long 120k = biggest since April 2018 Funds bought 34k SRW wheat contracts 🌾 The big soybean buying lines up with the late-October trade truce. CFTC says data will be fully current by late January. 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Update Planting is nearly wrapped up: 91% planted vs 95% last year Mostly complete in Mato Grosso and other top states New crop estimates vary widely: Patria: 171.9mmt Conab: 177.6mmt USDA: 175mmt 🌧️ Next 10 days: Most of Brazil sees rainfall—especially the dry south 🇺🇸 Early USDA Acreage Outlook USDA’s first look at 26/27: Corn: 95M acres (↓ 3.7%) Soybeans: 85M acres (↑ 4.8%) Wheat: 44M acres (↓ 2.9%) These numbers reflect expectations from USDA’s Nov. 14 WASDE.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Grain Export Demand Still 🔥 USDA reported multiple flash corn sales on Thursday: • 100,800mt to Colombia • 392,500mt to Mexico ➡️ Both for 2025/26 MY Corn demand remains fantastic — 🚢 exports + ⚗️ ethanol running near record pace — yet futures just can’t seem to catch a bid. 📦 “Catch-Up” Export Sales Report Week ending Oct 30: • Corn: 2mmt — down 📉 11% WoW (Mexico biggest buyer) • Soybeans: 1.2mmt — down 📉 14% WoW (Unknown biggest buyer; China finally showed with 232kmt) • Wheat: 505kmt — down slightly (Mexico biggest buyer) 🐖 China’s Pork Prices Keep Sinking • Pork values now the lowest since 2022 • Prices -18% YTD, expected to fall further • Weak consumer spending + slow economy • China’s sow herd only -2.1% YoY so far ➡️ If cuts deepen → less feed demand → soybean implications ⛽ API Flips Again on E15 American Petroleum Institute now supports year-round E15 🤯 ✔ Joined biofuel groups urging legislation ✔ Also pushing for limits on EPA refinery exemptions 🔊 Pete Meyer: “Positive step but not mandatory. Stations need blender pumps + storage — not feasible in big cities.” 🌾 Canada’s Record Wheat Crop StatsCan final crop report: • ~40mmt wheat, 🔺11.2% YoY — new all-time record • Beats 38.5mmt estimates • Spring wheat the driver: 29.3mmt (+10.3% YoY) ➡️ More pressure on a wheat market already struggling — especially spring wheat vs winter wheat 🌦 Drought Monitor Update Corn Belt: mostly steady ✔ Improvements: N. Illinois & SE Wisconsin ❌ Slight worsening: Michigan High Plains: little change ✔ Only modest improvement in NE Kansas US Areas in Drought: • Corn — 30% • Soybeans — 30% • Winter Wheat — 35% • Spring Wheat — 16% • Cattle — 25%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚜 China Soybeans: Goalposts Moving? China is expected to fulfill its US soybean purchase agreement… eventually. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will meet its commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. The White House originally said by year-end, but Bessent now expects by the end of February. To date, China has purchased just 2.2mmt (~19%) of the required volume. 🤨 The White House "Fact" Sheet stated—verbatim—that China will buy at least 12mmt during the last two months of 2025… plus 25mmt annually through 2028. Now the timeline has magically shifted. Sure sounds like some goalpost-dragging.  📦 Chinese shipments of US soybeans are set to ramp up in the coming weeks: At least 6 vessels scheduled to load from the Gulf 1 vessel already en route—the first since May Still well behind typical purchase pace Low Chinese demand = pressure on soybean prices US sorghum shipments to China have also resumed for the first time since March. 🌽 Iowa Eyeing More Corn in 2026 Iowa State University’s Dennis Johnson says farmers in north-central Iowa are leaning toward more corn acres next year. Corn has been the consistent moneymaker—despite some southern rust this year—and early 2026 budgets still favor corn over beans. He advised not to go overboard on fungicides next season… Just scout the crop. ⛽️ Ethanol Production = New Record US output hit 1.13mil bpd last week—an all-time high. Stocks rose to 22.51mil barrels. But… ethanol margins have softened: Roughly –$0.05 to +$0.25/gal depending on the plant ⚓ Black Sea Insurance Costs Explode Ukrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels have caused insurance rates to triple for ships calling at Russian ports. Escalating risks raise concerns about retaliation: ➡️ Potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure ➡️ Ongoing pressure on global grain trade dynamics 📉 US Jobs Market Cooldown Continues ADP reports 32,000 private-sector job losses in November vs. +47,000 in October. Hiring has slowed sharply under tariff fallout + tighter immigration. Monthly job growth: 62k (Jul–Sep 2025) vs 186k (same period 2024) 😬 Markets see an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇷🇺 Black Sea Threats Push Grain Higher Tensions escalated again this week after Russia warned it may retaliate for a recent surge in Ukrainian attacks on its tanker fleet. Vladimir Putin said Moscow could strike vessels belonging to countries that support Ukraine and even cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea if attacks continue. Several Russian-affiliated tankers have already been targeted over the last week — a notable escalation from prior sporadic incidents. Corn and wheat futures responded quickly: Mar26 corn +5¢ to $4.50, and March Chicago wheat +6¢ to $5.41. Russia and Ukraine together are expected to account for 27% of global wheat exports and 13.5% of global corn exports this year. 🌎 🌱 China Soybean Commitment: Can They Still Do It? Some traders still believe China can meet its 12mmt US soybean purchase pledge, but they’ve got a long way to go. State-owned importers — especially Cofco — are expected to ramp up buying in the next few weeks, including shipments destined for state reserves. The problem? US beans are still priced at a premium versus South America, leaving little commercial incentive. To date, China has purchased only 2.25mmt — just 18.8% of its commitment. To hit the target, they’d need to buy more than 2mmt per week for the rest of the year. There are 20 business days left in 2025, meaning China must average 487,450mt per business day to reach the White House goal. Most analysts view recent buying as short-term political optics, not a durable shift toward US supplies. 🚢 More US Soybeans Heading to China Reuters reports at least six bulk vessels will load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals in the next two weeks. Based on USDA flash data, China has “officially” purchased 2.2mmt so far this marketing year—but the true number could be higher due to USDA reporting delays. These shipments likely reflect previously reported sales. China taking a small batch of US soybeans is not new information and not bullish. 💵 Bridge Payment Coming Next Week Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed Tuesday that a farm “bridge payment” will be announced next week. The program is designed to provide short-term relief while longer-term trade and assistance plans are finalized. President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” expanded farm support, but many groups argue more is needed heading into next season. Even before the bridge payment, the US is on track to spend $40+ billion on farm payments this year—the second-highest total since 1933. 🌾 📈 Farmer Sentiment Surges US farmer sentiment jumped sharply in November. Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer rose to 139, the highest since June, with much of the increase driven by stronger future expectations. The Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144. This was the first survey after the newly negotiated US–China trade truce, likely boosting optimism.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Lawmakers are zeroed in on trade issues and a potential new farm-aid package as the year winds down. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is expected to release details this week—but many in D.C. and across farm country say it won’t be nearly enough. The American Farm Bureau notes that the rumored $12B is a fraction of the $50B+ in losses farmers have endured over the last three years. Deputy USDA Secretary Stephen Vaden added that recently negotiated trade deals could impact how much aid is ultimately distributed. 🚢 Export Inspections: Soybeans Still Dragging Soybeans: 920,194mt (34M bu) — +14% vs last week, but -56% vs last year 😬 Corn: 1.4mmt (56M bu)—-16% vs last week, +50% vs last year 🚀 Wheat: 384,881mt (14M bu) — -20% vs last week, +29% vs last year A small amount of sorghum headed to China. Expect more China-bound soybeans in the coming weeks. 🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update Private group AgRural pegs soybean planting at 89%, slightly behind last year’s 91%. Moisture issues exist in pockets, but it’s still too early to raise yield concerns. Patria Agronegocios: 171.9mmt (+0.2%) Conab: 177.6mmt USDA: 175.0mmt 📈 Catch-Up Export Sales (Week Ending Oct 23) Soybeans: 1.4mmt (53M bu), +31%, Mexico top buyer Corn: 1.8mmt (71M bu), -36%, Mexico top buyer Wheat: 499,800mt (18M bu), +46%, unknown destinations top buyer 🇦🇺 Massive Australian Wheat Crop Incoming Australia’s Department of Agriculture raised its forecast to 35.6 mmt—up 5.3% and potentially the third-largest crop on record. Timely spring rains + mild temps = big yields. This adds to global supply pressure, with Chicago wheat recently hitting 5-year lows. USDA expects Australia to account for 4.3% of global output this year. 👍 Thanks for watching! Drop a comment, smash the like button, and subscribe for daily updates. Stay informed—stay independent. 🌾📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down export sales, flash deals, China/Brazil soybean news, ethanol margins, and record-setting Black Friday spending. 👇 📦 Weekly Export Sales (Backdated Again…) Corn: USDA reported 2.8mmt (111 mil bu) in net corn sales for the week ending Oct 16—well above expectations and sharply higher than last week. Mexico was the top buyer. I continue to believe that in real time, US corn sales are running at a record pace, despite the outdated data. Soybeans: Net sales hit 1.1mmt (41 mil bu), up 41% from last week. The Netherlands was the top buyer. Wheat: Came in at 341,300mt (13 mil bu), below expectations and down 44% from last week. Colombia was the top buyer. 🚨 Flash Sales Update USDA reported multiple flashes Friday: • 312,000mt (11 mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 25/26 • 273,988mt (11 mil bu) of corn sold to Unknown for 25/26 Through Flash Sales alone, China has achieved 18.1% of the 12mmt pre-January purchase goal. There are 22 business days left in 2025. China must average 443,136mt/day to hit the White House target. 🇨🇳🇧🇷 China Suspends Some Brazilian Soybean Imports China halted shipments from five Brazilian export facilities after detecting pesticide-treated wheat contamination. Impacted companies include Cargill, CHS, and Louis Dreyfus. Exports from unaffected plants will continue — China still has 2,000+ approved Brazilian facilities. Similar issues earlier this year were resolved quickly. 🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins • Production rose to 1.11 mil bpd last week (+2% WoW). • Stocks fell to 21.97 mil barrels (-1.5% WoW). • Both metrics are slightly stronger vs. the same week last year. Margins remain solid: Reuters shows Corn Belt ethanol plants earning +10¢ to +40¢ per gallon depending on local corn, DDGs, and inputs. 🛍️ Black Friday: Record Online Spending US consumers spent $11.8B online on Black Friday (+9.1% YoY) and another $6.4B on Thanksgiving Day. In-store traffic fell 3.6% YoY. Despite tariff uncertainty and a softening job market, analysts still expect holiday spending to top $1T this season—with more shoppers leaning on buy-now-pay-later options.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China Steps Up US Soybean Buying China made major purchases of US soybeans this week. Since Tuesday, Chinese buyers have booked an estimated 10–15 cargoes — roughly $300 million in value. These sales followed President Trump’s call with Xi Jinping, during which Trump urged China to accelerate purchases, and Xi largely agreed. All cargoes are slated for January shipment out of Gulf Coast and PNW ports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that US soybean exports to China are “right on schedule.” The Trump administration claims China has agreed to buy 12mmt before Jan 1 and 25mmt annually for the next three years. China has not officially confirmed these numbers, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins expects confirmation in the coming weeks. 🕊️ Ukraine–Russia Peace Framework? Multiple sources say Ukraine is ready to move forward with a US-backed peace framework. The original US proposal — once 28 points and seen as favorable to Russia — has been cut to 19 revised points after input from both sides. Russia has not yet confirmed its position, and major terms are still unresolved. US officials will continue negotiations this week. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning Update CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report: Funds sold 54k corn contracts → net short grows to 188k, the largest since early July. Funds sold 1k soybean and 15k SRW wheat contracts. SRW wheat net short of 111k is the biggest since mid-May. Private estimates for yesterday’s close: Corn: –110k Soybeans: +120k SRW Wheat: –65k CFTC expects to be fully current by late January. Charts below. 🚢 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) For the week ending Oct 9: Corn: 1.3 mmt—down 41% Soybeans: 785k mt—down 15% Wheat: 613.9k mt—down 31% Mexico was the top buyer across all three.  🎰 Online Betting Risks Are Growing Bank of America warns that online betting and prediction markets are driving higher debt loads, especially among low-income consumers and young men. Research shows: Lower credit scores Higher bankruptcy rates More debt going to collections Prediction markets have surged, letting people bet “yes/no” on everything from elections to sports.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳🚢 China to Resume Shipments of US Soybeans & Sorghum Two Chinese vessels are scheduled to arrive at grain terminals near New Orleans this week to load US soybeans—the first such shipments since May. Another vessel is expected in Corpus Christi next week to load sorghum, marking the first sorghum shipment to China since March. These movements follow increased Chinese purchasing after the late-October trade truce in South Korea. According to the Trump administration, China has agreed to buy 12mmt of US soybeans by January and 25mmt annually over the next three years. China has not yet officially confirmed the deal. 🌱📈 Fresh US Soybean Sales to China China resumed buying on Monday. USDA reported: • 123,000mt (5 million bushels) sold for 2025/26 • 1.92mmt (71 million bushels) purchased so far in November With 25 business days left in 2025, China must average 402,440mt/day to hit the targeted 12mmt. 🚢🌎 US Export Inspections (Week Ending Nov 20) Soybeans: • 799,042mt (29mb) • Down 34% vs. last week, down 62% vs. last year—still disappointing Corn: • 1.6mmt (64mb) • Down 21% from last week but up 62% vs. last year Wheat: • 474,530mt (17mb) • Up 92% vs. last week and up 30% vs. last year 📞🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Phone Call President Trump says the call covered Chinese purchases of US soybeans and other ag goods. He described the trade truce as a “great deal” for US farmers. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said all elements of the agreement are being implemented. The two leaders agreed to meet in person—first in April in Beijing, then later in the US. 💵🚜 More Farmer Aid Expected USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says details of the long-discussed farmer assistance package will be released within the next two weeks. The Farm Bureau welcomed the update, calling aid “urgently needed.” Rollins also indicated that China will formally confirm its soybean purchase commitments within the next few weeks. 🌧️🌽 China Corn Market: Prices Hit 2-Month High Chinese corn futures have rallied due to: • Excessive rains damaging crops in major northern regions • Slow farmer selling • Government import restrictions keeping foreign corn out Through October, China’s corn imports totaled less than 1mmt, down 93% from last year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage Crunch Wisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs. Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground. United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible. Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight. Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices. USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa. Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields. Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal. 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Update Consulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year. Still ahead of the 75% five-year average. Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields. Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted. 🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the Board As of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations. Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October. Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations. Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction. Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding. 🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef Plant Tyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day. Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted. Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers. Changes take effect by end of January. Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year. 💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent Outlook The government shutdown cost the US economy $11B. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth. Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk. Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌦️ Weather & Drought Update Most of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI. • Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme • High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OK US Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33% 💰 Farm Financial Stress Three straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch. • Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year • U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12 • Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%) Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis. 🚢 China Purchases & Export Sales Flash Sales Thursday: • 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY) • 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY) • China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MY Brazil & Argentina Shipments: • Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY) • Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY) • U.S. → 0mt China imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment. 📦 Export Sales Snapshot Corn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyer Soybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyer Wheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer 🐂 Cattle Markets Cattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate. • Trump is pushing lower beef prices • Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish • Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸 Farm Aid Update The Trump administration is expected to announce additional farmer assistance in early December. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the aid is likely coming during the first week of the month. Details remain limited. The package was originally planned for this fall but delayed by the government shutdown. Farmers continue to face pressure from inflation, policy uncertainty, and trade-related disruptions. Even with the uptick in Chinese soybean buying, the administration believes more support is necessary heading into next planting season. 🇨🇳 China Soybean Purchases USDA reported another flash sale to China on Wednesday: • 330,000mt (≈12 million bushels) sold • China has now purchased 1.4mmt (≈50 million bushels) in recent weeks There are 29 business days left before Jan 1. To hit the 12mmt target the White House outlined, China would need to average 367,103mt (13.5 million bu) per day. Rumors point to 4–5 additional cargoes sold yesterday that may show up in today’s reporting. 🌱 2026 Acreage Outlook (S&P Global) S&P Global’s monthly survey points to: • Corn acres down to 95 million (–3.8%) • Soybean acres up to 84.5 million (+4%) • All wheat acres down to 44 million (–2.9%) 🛢️ Biofuel Credit Cuts May Be Delayed The administration is weighing a 1–2 year delay in cutting biofuel import credits. • Cuts were scheduled for Jan 1 • Would have reduced RIN credits earned by imported biofuels/inputs • Refiners warn cuts could tighten fuel supplies and raise prices EPA is reviewing comments and will finalize rules in the coming months. Soybean oil futures dropped more than 2% on the headline. 🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins US ethanol output increased to 1.09M barrels/day last week (+1.5% WoW). Stocks climbed to 22.31M barrels, slightly higher on the week and year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from +5 to +35 cents depending on plant and input mix. 📉 CFTC Commitment of Traders CFTC released its first COT data since reopening: • Corn: Funds sold 32k → net short now 129k • Soybeans: Funds sold 7k → net short now 32k • SRW Wheat: Funds bought 1k → net short trimmed to 96k CFTC expects to be fully current again by late January.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🤝 Trade Deals & Farmer Aid Outlook Recent trade agreements may impact the likelihood of additional farmer assistance. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says market conditions have shifted since aid discussions began earlier this fall. New trade deals with China, Pakistan, and Japan have led to significant purchase commitments for U.S. commodities. Back in early October, the Trump administration was considering at least $10B in farmer aid, modeled after the previous Market Facilitation Program, which paid out $23B during the China trade war. Vaden quote: “The entire goal of any program should be to provide a bridge to 2026 and to reflect current market conditions, which thankfully have improved. Soybean prices are at 15-month highs… but we will need to take that new data into account as we measure the amount of aid that we can and should provide.” 🚢 Big USDA Flash Sale to China USDA reported a 792,000mt (29M bushel) soybean sale to China on Tuesday. Combined with last week’s 232,000mt flash sale, China has now purchased roughly 1mmt (38M bushels) of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks. Yesterday’s announcement confirmed Monday’s rumored sales — and in classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” fashion, the market peaked right before confirmation. More flash sales later this week wouldn’t be surprising. 📊 CFTC Data Returns Today The CFTC will resume publishing Commitment of Traders reports today for the first time since the late-September report. The shutdown limited data availability and discouraged large speculative positioning. This afternoon’s release will cover data originally scheduled for October 3. Private estimates heading into yesterday’s close: Funds short 50k corn Long 150k soybeans Short 60k SRW wheat CFTC won’t be fully caught up until late January—a frustrating delay in an era where this should take a week. 🚜 Crop Progress Update USDA released its first crop progress report since reopening: Corn: 91% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 94% avg.). Nebraska only 74% vs 97% last year. Soybeans: 95% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 96% avg.). LA, MN, and SD are finished. Winter Wheat: 45% good/excellent (49% last year, slightly above 44% avg). 🌧️ Argentina Flooding Delays Planting Flooding is delaying corn and soybean planting in parts of Argentina. Roughly 1.5M hectares (3.7M acres) are at high risk of becoming unusable after months of heavy rain. Poor drainage and rural road conditions have worsened the situation. Argentina is the world’s top soybean meal & oil exporter and the #3 corn exporter. USDA expects 24M hectares (59.3M acres) of combined corn/soy area this season—meaning about 6% of total area is at risk.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌤️ Markets: Soybeans Surge on China Buying Soybean futures ripped higher Monday on renewed optimism that China is finally buying US product. Jan26 soybeans jumped about 33 cents to $11.57, the best trade since June 2024. Reuters reported that COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes (~31 mil bu), while Bloomberg pegged the total closer to 20 cargoes. One soybean cargo = ~60,000mt or ~2.2 mil bu. China’s recent buying (including last week’s 232kmt flash sale) suggests total purchases of 1.0–1.4mmt in recent weeks — only 8–12% of the 12mmt the White House says China will buy before Jan 1. The rally and firmer spreads are being driven entirely by this Chinese activity. But… higher US futures are once again pricing us above Brazil, hurting competitiveness. 📊 USDA Flash Sale Corrections USDA revised several daily sales from the shutdown backlog: The early-November soybean sale to China was cut from 232kmt to 132kmt after a 100kmt cancellation. Total Chinese soybean purchases reported via flash sales now total 232kmt over two separate announcements. USDA also removed a previously reported corn sale to Japan. 🏭 NOPA Crush Sets a Record NOPA members processed 227.65 million bushels in October — a new all-time high. +15% from September +14% from October 2024 Well above the trade estimate of 209.52 million Soybean oil stocks hit 1.31 billion lbs—still the third-lowest October on record, but: +5% vs September +22% vs last year Above expectations at 1.26 billion 🚢 Export Inspections Mixed Soybeans: USDA reported 1.2mmt (~43 mil bu) inspected last week — • +4.6% on the week • –48% vs last year • Zero inspected for China Corn: 2.1mmt (~81 mil bu) — • +38% on the week • +135% vs last year • Easily beat expectations Wheat: 246,533mt (~9 mil bu) — • –15% on the week • +25% vs last year • Missed expectations 🐄 US Dairy Herd Hits 25-Year High The US dairy herd reached 9.54 million head in Q3 — the largest since 1993. Producers are keeping more cows to expand beef-on-dairy output at a time when the US beef cow herd is at its smallest level in 70+ years. This trend won’t fully fix the cattle shortage, but it could drive the first increase in the US calf crop since 2018 and help stabilize supply during future cattle-cycle lows.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China Falls Far Short of US Soybean Targets Concerns are growing over China’s commitment to purchase US soybeans. USDA data released Friday showed that China has purchased just 332,000mt of US soybeans since the recently negotiated trade truce—less than 3% of the 12mmt China was reported to have agreed to buy by January. Officials also suggested China would purchase 25mmt annually for the next three years, but there’s little evidence of follow-through. With 31 business days left in 2025, China would need to average 376,387mt per day (about 14 million bushels daily) to meet the target. For now, China has little incentive to buy US soybeans because Brazil and South America are offering cheaper, abundant supplies. Even so, President Trump has said Chinese officials assured him that “much larger” purchases are coming. 📊 USDA Report: Bearish Corn, Softer Soybean Outlook Friday’s USDA report carried a bearish tone for corn. USDA cut the national corn yield to 186 bpa and production to 16.75B bu, but trade expected even lower. The average pre-report guess was 184 bpa and 16.56B bu. Soybean yield was trimmed to 53 bpa, with production at 4.25B bu, both below expectations. Despite the new US–China trade truce, USDA reduced its soybean export forecast to 1.6B bu. The agency also noted that several normal data sources were unavailable, raising concerns about data quality and reliability. 🧪 Tariffs Removed on Fertilizer Products President Trump signed an executive order Friday removing reciprocal tariffs on several agricultural inputs, including DAP, MAP, and potash. The American Soybean Association welcomed the move, expecting lower fertilizer costs for farmers. Critics counter that the rollback effectively admits that prior tariffs raised consumer and producer costs. The administration maintains the tariffs improved America’s economic leverage. 🇧🇷 Brazil Weather: Spotty Rain, Slow Soybean Planting Inconsistent rainfall continues to slow Brazil’s planting pace. AgRural estimated soybean planting at 71%, behind 80% during the same week last year. CropProphet data shows key Brazilian soybean areas received 82% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks, with Mato Grosso at 77%. 🥩 Tariff Changes for Food Products Trump also reduced tariffs on certain food products not grown in the US, including beef. The order removes the 10% tariff imposed on Brazilian beef last April but leaves the existing 40% tariff (from July) and 26.4% over-quota tariff in place—meaning Brazilian beef still faces a combined 66.4% rate. The policy shift has introduced uncertainty into cattle markets and weighed on prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown. 📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST) Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large. • Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines • US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases • Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks • October reports were skipped due to the shutdown 🚢 US Export Sales Return After Shutdown For the week ending Sept 25: • Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer • Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer • Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer ⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year: • Output: -2.7% • Stocks: +1% Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc. 🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook Soybeans: • Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year) • Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports Corn: • Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y) • Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y) 🌧️ US Drought Monitor Update Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week. • Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana • Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin • High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma US Areas in Drought: 🌽 Corn—29% 🫘 Soybeans—31% 🌾 Winter Wheat — 39% 🌾 Spring Wheat—17% 🐄 Cattle — 28%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Grain Markets This Morning Soybean futures posted fresh highs overnight. Jan26 pushed above $11.40 for the first time this year, marking the best continuation trade since July 2024. Corn and wheat followed higher — Dec25 corn added a few cents to trade near $4.35 as traders brace for a potential USDA yield cut on Friday. Dryness and disease across parts of the Corn Belt remain key storylines. 🇨🇳 US–China Truce & 2025 Soybean Acres Market economist Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) says the trade truce is supportive for soybean demand, basis, and planted acreage next year. Soybean futures are at one-year highs, crush demand keeps climbing, and he compared today’s soybean story to early ethanol-era corn demand 15–20 years ago. Early farm budgets still lean toward corn, but the Dec26 corn / Nov26 soybean ratio has softened with recent rallies in both markets. 🚫 China Has Stopped Buying US Soybeans (Again) Chinese soybean purchases have paused following a brief round of post-truce buying. There’s growing doubt they’ll meet: 12mmt pledge before Jan 1 25mmt annually over the next three years China never officially confirmed the commitments, and many analysts see them as more diplomatic than binding. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper, China’s stocks are comfortable, and US beans still face a 13% tariff. With the 43-day government shutdown now over, traders will look to tomorrow’s USDA export sales to reveal what (if anything) China bought in recent weeks. 🌾 Friday’s USDA Crop Production & WASDE (11:00am CST) Expectations heading into Friday: Corn: Large downward yield/production revision expected, though still record-large crop Soybeans: Slight cuts to yield and production Ending stocks: Modestly higher for corn/soy/wheat Global stocks: Minimal changes expected USDA skipped the October reports due to the shutdown, so this release covers two months of revisions. 🍌 Tariff Talk: Food Imports on the Table The Trump administration is considering removing tariffs on food items not produced domestically — coffee, bananas, etc. The discussion comes after GOP losses in recent state/local elections where cost-of-living concerns were front and center. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says household costs should ease by the first half of 2026. He also reiterated that no final decision has been made on Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend. Many of the affected products are sourced from Brazil, and some traders think the administration may be preparing to drop current 50% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports. Beef imports are being discussed quietly given Trump's recent clash with high beef prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China Chooses Brazil China’s state-owned COFCO has signed a $10B deal to purchase 20mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products. The agreement includes contracts with ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus. Despite the recent US–China trade truce, Beijing has yet to make major US soybean purchases—and the 13% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. While much of this business likely would’ve happened anyway, it’s a bad look for the U.S. considering the White House’s touted 12mmt purchase floor due by January 1st. 🇹🇭 Thailand Boosts U.S. Corn Imports As part of its U.S. trade concessions, Thailand will raise its annual feed-corn import quota from 54,700mt to 1mmt — and eliminate the 20% in-quota tariff. Imports will be allowed Feb 1–June 30 to protect domestic producers. Thailand’s total feed demand is projected at 21.8mmt, with about 60% imported, mainly corn, soybean meal, and wheat. The country isn’t a top-10 global importer, but it’s a notable shift in regional demand. 🏛️ Shutdown Nears an End The Senate passed a temporary funding bill Monday, and the House votes today. The measure would fund most agencies through January, with USDA funded through September 30. All unpaid federal workers will be compensated, and no layoffs are expected through January. Still, it may take weeks for USDA reporting and air travel to normalize. Traders are watching for the return of two key reports: 1️⃣ CFTC Commitment of Traders – what are “the funds” doing? 2️⃣ USDA Export Sales – has China actually bought anything? 🌽 WASDE & Crop Production Ahead The USDA’s November reports drop Friday at 11:00am CST. Markets expect: A downward revision to U.S. corn yield and production Slight declines for soybeans Marginal increases to U.S. ending stocks Because of the shutdown, October’s reports were skipped—so this release carries extra weight.  📈 Grain Market Recap Futures were mixed Tuesday—corn and Chicago wheat gained modestly, while soybeans slipped. Traders continue to assess the pace of a government reopening and China’s lack of buying activity despite the trade truce. Beijing seems to have little incentive to meet even short-term U.S. purchase goals.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸 Iowa Farmland Controversy Iowa Auditor and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is backing a plan to raise taxes on out-of-state property owners — including farmland. Sand argues it would help make land more affordable for Iowans and preserve state culture. 👉 Iowa State University’s 2022 data shows half of Iowa farmland is owned by non-farmers, and a quarter of 2022 land sales were investment-driven. Two of the top 10 landowners in Iowa are based out of state. 🌱 Market Update Soybeans led Monday’s rally—Jan 26, up 13¢ to $11.30/bu—as optimism grows that the government shutdown may end and exports to China may pick up. Corn gained nearly 3¢ to $4.30, and Chicago wheat rose 8¢ to $5.36. 📊 Traders are eyeing possible yield cuts in Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. 🚢 Export Inspections USDA data showed 1.1mmt of soybeans inspected for export last week—up 11% from the prior week but down 54% from last year. 🇨🇳 China was absent from the market. Corn: 1.4mmt (strong vs. last year) Wheat: 290kmt (weaker week-over-week) 🥩 Tyson Foods Outlook Tyson Foods expects 2026 profits to hold steady despite ongoing beef segment losses from high cattle prices. 🐄 The US cow herd is at a 70-year low, and rebuilding may take until 2028. 🍗 Stronger demand for chicken and processed products is helping offset beef weakness. President Trump recently urged the DOJ to investigate major packers — including Tyson — over alleged price manipulation. 🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Planting Brazil’s soybean planting reached 61%, up 14% from the week prior but behind last year’s 67%. 🌦️ Irregular rainfall continues to slow progress. Corn planting is 72% complete, in line with 2024.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ✅ Today’s Focus: Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend & Inflation Risks 📊 💰 Economic & Policy Updates President Trump announced plans for a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to most Americans. He said the payout would exclude high-income earners and be funded by tariff revenue, which he also pledged to use toward the $37 trillion national debt. Any such payments would likely need congressional approval. Scott Bessent later clarified that support could come in other forms, such as tax cuts. Meanwhile, Trump’s team is pushing for a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage program, both moves viewed as potentially inflationary. 🥩 🐄 Meatpackers Under Fire Trump accused major meatpacking companies of manipulating beef prices and urged the Justice Department to investigate. Beef prices remain high as the US cattle herd sits at its smallest size in 74 years. The Meat Institute defended the industry, citing transparency and oversight, while USDA data shows packers facing steep losses expected to continue into next year. 🍔 🏢 Texas Roadhouse Outlook Texas Roadhouse expects commodity costs to rise 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, driven by higher beef prices. Commodity inflation reached 7.9% in Q3, but the chain offset pressure through 1.7% menu price hikes and strong customer traffic. Same-store sales rose 6.1%, beating forecasts. 🌏 🇨🇳 China Trade Developments China will reinstate soybean import licenses for CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT on Nov. 10, easing tensions after a recent Trump–Xi trade truce. The move follows tariff cuts and limited US grain purchases. Still, traders remain cautious about China’s follow-through on purchase commitments. 🌾 📈 Fund Position Estimates Private data (amid the government shutdown) suggest: Corn: net short 40–60K Soybeans: net long 100–150K SRW Wheat: net short 50–80K Funds were net buyers of 7K soybean contracts last week and ended the week flat in corn. The Senate moved closer to ending the shutdown after a bipartisan vote on Sunday. ⛽ 🧪 Biofuel Waiver Rulings The EPA granted biofuel blending exemptions to HF Sinclair and Phillips 66, while Chevron was denied. The waivers apply to blending obligations from 2021–2023 and were issued for economic hardship. Biofuel producers warned the move could undermine renewable fuel demand and add market uncertainty.