Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🛢️ Oil prices tumbled over 5% on Wednesday as Trump announced US-Iran negotiations are nearing a final stage, sending WTI crude to $98.26 per barrel. Analysts warn the market may be underestimating the long-term risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. 🌾 Wheat, corn, and soybean futures all closed lower, pressured by falling crude prices and uncertainty over China's confirmation of a $17 billion agricultural purchase deal. China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged expanded trade but did not confirm the figure cited by the White House. 🏦 The Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance, with officials suggesting rate hikes may be necessary if inflation — currently at 3.8% — continues to climb. Markets are now pricing in a 51% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, putting incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course with Trump's push for cuts. ⛽ US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.11 million barrels per day, up 12% from the same period last year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain strong, ranging from 10 to 40 cents positive. 🥩 Cargill locked out roughly 1,700 workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado meatpacking facility after employees rejected a contract proposal, halting slaughter operations that were processing around 4,000 head per day. This comes as President Trump calls on the DOJ to investigate major meatpackers for potential price collusion, with packers currently losing upwards of $300 per head.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Australia's wheat production is facing a major decline — dry conditions and soaring input costs from the Iran war could slash output by up to 41%, potentially dropping to just 21mmt. As the world's third-largest wheat exporter, this represents a serious global supply shock. 🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage growth is hitting a 20-year low — rising fertilizer costs tied to Middle East conflict are slowing expansion to under 1 million new acres for 2026/2027. Meanwhile, this season's crop is on track to be a record 180.1mmt. 🤝 China and the US agreed to cut agricultural tariffs — both nations confirmed a reciprocal tariff reduction framework, though specific products and dollar figures remain vague. As always with China, watch what they do, not what they say. 📉 Corn futures dipped while soybeans edged higher — the Dec26 corn contract settled near $4.98 as traders waited for more details on the China deal. Nov26 soybeans added 2 cents to close at $12.03. 🏭 The USDA is pushing to boost domestic fertilizer production—permitting is being fast-tracked, and tariffs on Moroccan phosphate imports may be removed to ease costs. An economist will also be hired specifically to monitor farm input prices. 📈 Treasury yields are surging to near 20-year highs — the 30-year yield broke above 5.18% as war-driven inflation fears and massive bond issuance rattle markets. Analysts warn the Fed may be forced to raise rates rather than cut them. 🌽 Lawmakers are calling for immediate farmer relief — Senator Boozman supports the USDA's long-term fertilizer plans but says near-term financial aid is urgently needed. He also renewed his push for a new farm bill and year-round E15 sales.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Grain and soybean futures surged Monday after a White House fact sheet revealed China committed to purchasing $17 billion in US agricultural products annually for the next three years — though key details and formal Chinese confirmation are still pending. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallied sharply as funds bought aggressively across the board. US winter wheat conditions continued to slide, with good-excellent ratings hitting their lowest level since 1996. The top five HRW-producing states are averaging just 9.6% good-to-excellent and 62.6% poor-to-very-poor, with the USDA pegging the HRW crop at 515 million bushels—down 36% from last year. Corn and soybean planting are both running ahead of average, and the forecast favors additional Corn Belt rainfall over the next five days. Brazil's inflation outlook is worsening, now projected at 4.5% by year-end—well above the central bank's 3% target—largely driven by higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Brazilian farmers continue to face steep borrowing costs, with private loan rates exceeding 17%. US corn export inspections dipped last week but remain strong on the season. Soybean inspections were up 115% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of the week's total. Wheat shipments fell below expectations. President Trump delayed a planned strike on Iran following requests from Persian Gulf allies, though WTI crude still settled up ~3% at $108.66/barrel. The administration extended a sanctions waiver on Russian oil sales for another 30 days amid ongoing pressure heading into the midterms.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 China Agrees to $17B Annual US Ag Purchases Through 2028 🇺🇸🇨🇳 China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural goods through 2028, following President Trump's meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week. 📋 These purchases are in addition to China's existing commitment to buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually through 2028. The two countries also plan to establish trade and investment boards, signaling closer economic coordination. ⚠️ However, China's commerce ministry described the agreement as preliminary, with no specific details provided. Click HERE to view the White House fact sheet. 💭 Our Take: Dollar-benchmarked agreements are harder to track than volume-based ones. The last time China bought $17B+ in non-soybean US products was in 2021–2022, both years tied to large corn purchases. While skeptics point to the unfulfilled Phase One deal, it's worth noting China did complete its more recent 12mmt soybean commitment in full. 🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall Update: Parts of the Corn Belt received rain over the weekend, with the largest totals in southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and southeastern Nebraska. Radar remains active this morning over Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. CropProphet (via Euro model data) projects 175% of normal rainfall over the next 7 days and 104% of normal during the 8–14 day period. ☔ 🫘 NOPA April Crush Data: NOPA members crushed 211.86 million bushels of soybeans in April — down 6.3% from March but up 11.4% year-over-year and a record for the month of April. The result came in below the trade estimate of 214.03 million bushels. Crush margins hit their highest level in three years, boosted by a soybean oil rally tied to rising crude prices amid the Iran war. 🛢️ End-of-month soybean oil stocks fell to 1.95 billion pounds, down 4.5% from March but up 28% from last year. 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (Week Ending May 12): Large money managers were net sellers of 49k corn contracts, though the net long position of 296k contracts remains the second-largest since February 2025. Funds were also net sellers of 5k soybean contracts and 9k SRW wheat contracts on the week. 📦 USDA Flash Sale: US exporters sold 155,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Italy for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump meets Xi in China—traders were hoping for a BIG soybean announcement, but the news fell flat… at first. Treasury Secretary Bessent says the existing 25MMT/year deal through 2028 is enough, sending soybean futures tumbling 24 cents to $11.84/bu. BUT—Trump hinted China will buy "a lot" of US farm products, and Trade Rep. Greer expects a double-digit billion-dollar ag purchase agreement over the next 3 years. Stay tuned. 👀 🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour delivers tough news — average yield projected at just 38.9 BPA, a 3-year low and well below the 5-year tour average of 45.5 BPA. Total production estimated at only 218M bushels, down from 338.5M last year. Drought abandonment could hit 20%. 😬 🌧️ Drought continues to expand across the Plains — Nebraska is in rough shape, with 94% of the state now under some level of drought, including 10% in exceptional drought. Winter wheat is taking the hardest hit, with 71% of acres affected nationwide. 🔥 ⛽ E15 expansion debate heats up — The National Corn Growers Association says expanded E15 sales could mean $5+/acre in net benefits for corn & soybean farmers. The American Soybean Association flip-flopped this week—first opposing it, then supporting it with conditions. 🌽 📦 Export sales disappointing—Corn sales down 50% week-over-week, soybeans hit a second straight marketing year low. Wheat was the bright spot, up 70% from the prior week. 📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Trump & Xi Meet in Beijing — What It Means for Ag Markets Trump and Xi sat down for a 2+ hour meeting in Beijing, and the agricultural world is watching closely. China renewed import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants 🐄, making beef exporters the early winners. Soybean traders, however, were left wanting more — no new purchase agreement was announced, sending grain markets mostly lower. Headlines are still developing, so stay tuned. 🌽 E15 Clears the House — But the Senate Fight Is Just Beginning The House passed year-round nationwide E15 sales 218–203 with bipartisan support. With ethanol trading at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case is strong — but oil-state senators and even the American Soybean Association have concerns. It's going to be a battle. 🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Paints a Tough Picture Yield estimates are coming in well below last year across both northwest and southwest Kansas. Northwest came in at 38.3 bpa vs. 50.5 last year. The final state estimate drops today—don't miss it. 🌧️ Rain Is Coming to the Corn Belt 1-2" of rainfall is on the way for much of IL, IA, IN, MO, OH, MN, ND, and SD—welcome news for newly planted fields. But temperatures are also running 4.2°F above normal, so it's a mixed bag for crop development. 🌱 EU Moves to Tackle Fertilizer Crisis Nitrogen prices in Europe are up 40% since December. The EU is expected to announce a plan next week to stockpile fertilizers and support affected farmers ahead of winter planting season. 🥩 JBS Profits Crater 56% Tight US cattle supplies crushed JBS's North American beef margins, dragging net income down to $220.6 million. Meanwhile, their Brazilian operations hit record Q1 sales. The meat giant also flagged rising corn prices ahead due to weather and fertilizer costs. ⛽ Ethanol Production Hits Seasonal High Weekly output hit 1.08M barrels/day — up 6.1% year over year. Margins remain healthy at 10–45 cents positive across the Corn Belt, even as stocks tightened to 24.87 million barrels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 US wheat production is headed for its lowest level since 1972 — the USDA's May WASDE pegged the 2026/27 crop at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from last year and 10% below trade expectations. HRW wheat is forecast at just 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957, as severe drought continues to devastate the Plains—and wheat futures hit their daily trading limits following the report. 🫘 US soybean production is projected at 4.44 billion bushels — the second-highest on record — even as soaring input costs tied to the Middle East conflict weigh on farmers. Both US and global new-crop soybean carryout came in smaller than expected, giving bulls something to hold onto. 🌽 Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, down 6% year-over-year but slightly above trade guesses. Both corn and soybean futures closed higher on the day despite the broadly mixed USDA data. 🤝 US and Chinese officials are deep in talks over Chinese purchases of American corn, soybeans, sorghum, and DDGs — with timing and volume still unresolved ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing tonight. Farmers want binding commitments, not social media posts, after recent informal announcements proved unreliable. 🏛️ Senator John Hoeven is pushing for $17 billion in additional farm aid, including $3 billion for specialty crops, likely as a supplemental disaster relief package. The support is aimed at keeping current producers afloat and bringing the next generation back to the farm. 📈 Inflation hit a 3-year high in April, with the CPI up 3.8% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs surging nearly 18% annually amid the Iran war. The national average for regular unleaded now sits at $4.50 per gallon.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 US winter wheat is in crisis — only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, the worst rating since 1996 (excluding 2022), while 40% sits in poor-to-very-poor condition. The top 5 hard red winter wheat states are averaging a devastating 59% poor-to-very-poor rating as drought grips the Plains. 📈 Grain futures surged Monday ahead of the USDA's big WASDE report and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pushed higher as traders bet on revived Chinese purchases and monitored worsening crop conditions. ⛽ E15 ethanol could go year-round nationwide if a House vote passes this week, backed by bipartisan support — but the oil industry is pushing back hard. With wholesale ethanol at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case for E15 has never been stronger. 🌽 The USDA dropped its first look at 2026/27 crop balance sheets today — and with ample supply and bearish headwinds, prices could face downward pressure. Initial corn and soy yield estimates are pegged at 183 bpa and 53 bpa, respectively. 💊 Mosaic is slashing phosphate production by ~10% due to sulfur supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict squeezing margins from both sides. Additional cuts could be coming if Middle East tensions don't ease soon. 🐄 Trump pumped the brakes on beef import quota removal after fierce backlash from ranchers and lawmakers—cattle futures whipsawed on the news. A similar policy last fall failed to lower beef prices and cratered the cattle market instead. 🚢 US corn and soybean export inspections remain robust, with corn up 30% year-over-year and soybeans up a stunning 49% vs. last year. China alone accounted for 52% of soybean inspections, and flash sales of corn to Mexico and South Korea were confirmed Monday.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands—including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway—"totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️ --- 📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5) 🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long.  🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k—the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long. 🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week. --- 📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP 🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu—on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu—supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns. --- 📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CST USDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside.  --- 🏦 FED & MACRO Goldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%. --- ⛽ FUEL PRICES National average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG 🌾 Wheat futures tumbled Thursday as KC HRW led the selloff, dropping nearly 20 cents, while SRW held up better with only a 5-cent loss. Rain hit parts of western KS and eastern CO, but many on the ground say it may be too little, too late. 👀 The Kansas Wheat Commission crop tour is coming up next week! 🌽 Corn and soybeans bounced back late Thursday after hitting daily lows, with Dec26 corn recovering from $4.83 to close near $4.895/bu. Nov26 soybeans also clawed back about 9 cents from their lows. 💣 Geopolitical tensions flared near the Strait of Hormuz as US and Iranian forces clashed Thursday. No ships were hit, and a ceasefire technically remains in place — but WTI crude is trading near $94/bbl this morning after bottoming at $89.85/bbl. Iran is expected to respond to a US peace proposal within days. 🛢️ 🇧🇷 Brazil's corn crop is shrinking. Agroconsult pegged production at 140.5mmt, down 7% year-over-year, with the key second crop on track to fall nearly 10%. USDA sits at 132mmt — a big gap between the two estimates. 🌧️ Drought continues to grip the Plains. 70% of US winter wheat acres are now in drought, and conditions deteriorated further in NE, KS, and OK last week. The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry, which helped planting progress. 🚢 A rare hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship has health officials monitoring dozens of passengers across at least 5 US states. The Andes virus strain is unusual because it can spread person-to-person. WHO says overall public risk remains low. 🦠 📉 Export sales came in soft. Corn sales totaled 1.3mmt for the week ending April 30 — down 15% week-over-week. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 141,900mt, while wheat sales also missed expectations at 78,800mt.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱💰 Fertilizer companies are cashing in on the Iran conflict. CF Industries and Nutrien both reported roughly 20% increases in quarterly sales as nitrogen fertilizer prices surged. Both companies also posted substantial gains in adjusted EPS. Since the conflict began, urea prices in New Orleans have jumped about 36%. 📈 Meanwhile, US natural gas prices haven't risen as sharply as other regions, allowing fertilizer producers to capture stronger profit margins. Despite elevated prices, fertilizer demand is expected to stay strong as farmers still need nutrients to maintain crop yields. ☮️🛢️ The US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement. Washington submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding outlining a plan to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade on Iranian ports. Iran has not yet accepted the proposal, with leadership indicating parts of the deal are unrealistic. 📉 The announcement sent stocks surging and oil prices tumbling—US crude fell roughly 7% to settle near $95/bbl. The nearby Jun26 WTI contract trades near $93/bbl this morning after peaking above $105/bbl earlier this week. That $12/bbl selloff in less than 24 hours weighed heavily on the grain complex. 🌽📉 Grain futures tumbled Wednesday on peace deal prospects. The Dec26 corn contract fell nearly 11 cents to settle at $4.90/bu. The Nov26 soybean contract declined 14 cents to close near $11.76/bu. Traders are watching next week's Trump-Xi meeting, though the likelihood of China returning to buy large volumes of US soybeans remains low. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower—Jul26 Chicago wheat fell ~11 cents to $6.17/bu, while Jul26 Kansas City wheat slipped 3 cents to $6.87/bu. ⛽ US ethanol production ticked up last week. Weekly output came in at 1.02 million barrels per day, up 1% vs. the prior week but down 2.2% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.02 million barrels, +1% week-over-week and +2.5% year-over-year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at 5 to 45 cents positive based on Reuters data. 🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's soybean acreage is projected to increase only slightly in 2026/2027. Rising fertilizer costs driven by the Middle East conflict are limiting expansion incentives. Additionally, the potential for a strong El Niño is weighing on acreage decisions — this weather pattern would raise drought risk in northern and west-central regions while increasing excessive rainfall risk in southern Brazil.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Oklahoma's winter wheat crop is on track for a historically poor season, with crop tour estimates coming in at 47.8 million bushels — nearly half the 10-year average and down 55% from last year, despite farmers planting 6% more acres. Dry conditions continue to grip the region, with 84% of the state experiencing some level of drought. The Kansas wheat tour is up next, where similarly disappointing numbers are expected. Meanwhile, the Texas wheat crop is battling both drought and a widespread disease outbreak tied to the wheat curl mite, with 56% of the crop rated poor to very poor. In Europe, corn futures surged to a near two-year high amid supply concerns, with French acreage expected to fall ~15% and Romania's crop projected to be its smallest in over a decade. High fertilizer costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure are a major driver. Back in the US, corn and soybean futures pulled back Tuesday on farmer selling and lower crude prices, while wheat futures slipped on forecasted Plains rainfall — though it's unlikely to make a meaningful dent in drought damage. Gas prices are surging, with the national average hitting $4.48/gallon — up $1.32 from a year ago — and diesel sitting at $5.66. Crude remains above $100/barrel with no resolution in sight on the US-Iran front. Farmer sentiment dipped in April per the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer, with input costs and availability remaining top concerns. And ADM raised its 2026 outlook, citing biofuel policy tailwinds and expectations of China returning to normal soybean buying in Q4.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Crude oil prices surged more than 4% Monday after Iran targeted US vessels and struck the UAE, reigniting fears that the four-week ceasefire could collapse. The move sent soybeans up 14 cents to near $11.97/bu and corn up roughly 6 cents to near $5.05/bu, with wheat also advancing on expected Plains rainfall. US winter wheat conditions remain historically poor—the top 5 HRW states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE) are rated just 14% good-excellent with 52% poor-to-very-poor. Nationally, 37% of the crop is rated poor-to-very-poor, well above the 5-year average of 27%. Corn planting reached 38% complete, ahead of the 34% average, while soybean planting hit 33%, well above the 23% average. On the export front, corn inspections came in strong at 80 million bushels — up 22% week-over-week and 25% vs. last year. Soybean and wheat shipments came in near the low end of expectations. China accounted for roughly 45% of weekly inspections. The US is urging China to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted China buys ~90% of Iran's energy exports. Trump and Xi are expected to meet May 14th. Meanwhile, China ordered its companies to disregard US sanctions on private refiners tied to Iranian oil purchases. Tyson Foods posted $260M in net income last quarter, up sharply from $7M a year ago, despite a $240M loss in its beef segment driven by tight cattle supplies. Chicken profit hit $505M. Ag Secretary Rollins flagged the administration's ongoing investigation into the big four meatpackers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Frost risk is rising across the Corn Belt this week as temperatures trend below normal, particularly in northern areas. Heavy rain is also expected to slow planting progress. Storm systems are forecast to bring rainfall across the central and southern Plains, though wheat yield damage in those regions has likely already occurred. The Northern Plains remain mostly dry but face below-normal temperatures and freeze potential.  📈 Corn futures rallied Friday on rising fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war, which traders fear could reduce yields. The July '26 contract gained nearly 6¢ to settle near $4.80/bu, while the Dec '26 contract traded above $5.00/bu for the first time this year. Cold, wet conditions across the central and eastern Corn Belt added to bullish sentiment. Soybeans and wheat also closed higher.  📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (week ending Apr. 28): Large money managers were net buyers of 83k corn contracts — the net long of 266k is the largest since late March. Funds were net sellers of 11k soybean contracts. SRW wheat saw net buying of 20k contracts, pushing the net long to 12k—the largest since June 2022. Managed money also holds a record net long in spring wheat and is near-record net long soybean oil. 🚢 Iranian grain imports have collapsed as vessels idle at sea rather than risk transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the US blockade. War-risk insurance costs are prohibitive. Iran, heavily dependent on imported feed grains for its meat and dairy sectors, is seeing staple food prices surge — eggs up 118% and bread up 80% since the war began. Rerouting attempts have not offset lost volumes.  🇲🇽 Mexico replaced its agriculture minister. President Sheinbaum named Columba López Gutiérrez to replace Julia Berdegué, who moves to an advisory role as the US, Mexico, and Canada review the USMCA ahead of a July 1 deadline on whether to extend the agreement 16 years or let it expire. Berdegué had also been leading New World screwworm talks with the US — an issue with little improvement. Mexico is the largest buyer of US corn. 🌽 USDA flash sale: US exporters sold 148,240 MT (≈6 mil bu) of corn to unknown destinations — 78,240 MT for 2025/26 delivery and 70,000 MT for 2026/27 delivery.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Corn futures slipped Thursday as favorable Corn Belt weather and crude oil weakness weighed on prices. The Dec26 contract settled near $4.94, unable to break through the key $5.00 level. Wheat saw sharp losses, dropping ~16 cents on Plains rainfall forecasts, while soybeans finished mostly unchanged. The USDA drought monitor showed meaningful improvement in the Corn Belt—drought coverage fell from 36% to just 11% since the start of the year. However, conditions are worsening in Nebraska and Kansas, and winter wheat continues to struggle under dry conditions and recent freezes. The House passed the farm bill 224–200, reauthorizing ag and food programs for five years. The E15 year-round sales provision was stripped from the bill after pushback from oil-state Republicans. A standalone E15 vote is now expected separately. Kalshi will not offer 24/7 grain markets after pushback from industry groups and regulators. Grain contracts will align with traditional exchange hours. Meanwhile, the CFTC is reportedly considering more frequent publication of its Commitment of Traders report. Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 1.6mmt — up 21% week-over-week — with Colombia as the top buyer. Soybean sales were soft at 258,100mt. Wheat sales came in near the top of expectations at 226,100mt, up 75% from the prior week. The S&P 500 closed above 7,200 for the first time, gaining 1% to a new all-time high. Strong earnings and AI optimism drove the rally, even as Q1 GDP came in at 2% — below the expected 2.2%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm bill votes are underway—amendments Wednesday night, final vote expected Thursday. The E15 fuel controversy nearly derailed it, but that plan's been dropped. Bipartisan support is building despite House Democrat leadership opposition, as farmers facing rising costs and bankruptcies need relief now. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is pushing to cut fertilizer costs with the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act, targeting tariffs on phosphate imports from Morocco — which controls over 70% of global phosphate reserves. The American Farm Bureau and American Soybean Association are on board. Oil surged nearly 7% Wednesday to $106.88/barrel as Strait of Hormuz disruptions look increasingly long-term. Trump says the blockade holds until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal — and Tehran isn't blinking. Markets are starting to price in a real supply shock, not just geopolitical noise. Wheat futures pulled back slightly after hitting a near two-year high, settling at $6.53/bu on the July26 contract. Drought concerns across the Plains remain, and the forecasted rain is expected to miss the driest areas. Corn and soybeans both closed higher. Bunge raised its 2026 profit outlook after a strong Q1 beat—higher soybean oil prices, solid crush margins, and rising biofuel demand driven by new EPA mandates are all tailwinds. Trade tensions and supply chain risk remain the key unknowns. US ethanol production dipped to 1.01M bpd last week, down 3% week-over-week. Stocks fell to 25.88M barrels. Despite the drop, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain solidly positive at 15–40 cents.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Illinois Historic Rainfall — Severe thunderstorms dropped a record 3.6" in Springfield and 2.1" in Peoria Tuesday, the highest single-storm totals since 2002. Flooding concerns are mounting across the region, with some corn and soybean growers already discussing replant options. 🌾 Wheat Surges on Plains Drought — The May26 Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts jumped 28 and 30 cents Tuesday to close at $6.49 and $6.97/bu, respectively, on intensifying drought stress across the U.S. Plains. Forecasted rainfall is expected to miss the hardest-hit western areas, where yield losses are likely already underway. 🌽 Corn Gains, Beans Slip — May26 corn gained roughly 5 cents to close near $4.65/bu — its highest since late March — supported by near-term Corn Belt rainfall, strong export demand, and a 3.7% surge in crude oil to near $100/barrel. Soybeans edged lower on technical selling and expectations of large South American supplies, while the Dec27 corn contract topped $5.00/bu for the first time. 🥩 Smithfield Margins Under Pressure — Rising diesel and packaging costs tied to the Middle East conflict are squeezing Smithfield's profitability, sending shares down roughly 8% Tuesday despite a Q1 earnings beat. The company plans to offset input cost headwinds through price increases and efficiency improvements, and also noted higher beef prices amid historically tight cattle supplies. 🌱 EU Rejects S. American Soy Shipments — Dutch authorities detected non-approved GMOs in four Argentine and two Brazilian soybean meal shipments, triggering withdrawals and potential disruption to the EU's largest soy suppliers. The situation could shift demand toward the U.S. and Ukraine as Europe enforces its strict GMO import regulations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Gas prices are climbing again, hitting a national average of $4.17/gallon, with analysts warning of $4.20 within days as oil hovers near $100/barrel amid the US-Iran conflict and near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency oil reserves worldwide are being drawn down rapidly, raising supply alarm bells. US winter wheat conditions remain historically weak — the top 5 HRW states are averaging just 13.8% good-excellent, with Nebraska's crop sitting at a staggering 65% poor-very poor. Corn and soybean planting are running ahead of the average pace. Wheat futures rallied Monday on crude strength, a weaker dollar, and dry Plains conditions. Chicago May26 wheat settled near $6.22, KC May26 near $6.67, with both HRW and HRS posting fresh highs. Corn and beans also closed higher, with Dec26 corn hitting fresh 1-month highs overnight. The Iran war is triggering a major fertilizer crisis—over half of the Middle  East's urea production has been disrupted, with roughly 30% of global urea trade affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Farmers worldwide may be forced to cut application rates, threatening yields and global food security. The Trump administration is expected to unveil a fertilizer investment plan this week, targeting both short-term price relief and long-term domestic production reshoring, while the USDA and DOJ investigate potential price gouging. US corn export inspections came in at 65 million bushels for the week ending April 23 — solid but down slightly week-over-week. Soybean shipments were up 37% vs. last year, with China taking ~39% of inspections. Wheat shipments came in near the top of expectations at 13 million bushels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 A 128-acre Iowa farm in Louisa County sold for $2.1 million at auction — roughly 35% above statewide and county per-acre averages — drawing 46 registered bidders from 12 states. A 79-acre tract of highly productive cropland led the way at $21,050/acre, reflecting strong demand driven by scarcity and farmland's track record of ~12.7% average annual returns from 1970–2021. 🌵 Severe drought is tightening its grip on the US High Plains, with 70% of the winter wheat crop now drought-stressed — the highest coverage since December 2022. Poor pasture conditions and wildfire losses are also forcing cattle producers to liquidate herds, with El Niño rains expected too late to help winter wheat or summer grazing. 🏛️ The USDA is doubling disaster aid payments this week, increasing the SDRP payment factor from 35% to 70% for approved 2023–2024 claims. The application deadline has also been extended to August 12, and the Trump administration is expected to announce measures to address surging fertilizer prices in the coming weeks. 📊 Large money managers were net buyers of 30k corn contracts and 19k soybean contracts for the week ending April 21, per the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report. Funds were net sellers of 3k SRW wheat contracts on the week. 🇮🇷 US-Iran negotiations were called off over the weekend after President Trump canceled talks that were set to take place in Pakistan. Iran is demanding the US lift its Strait of Hormuz blockade before talks resume, while the White House says the blockade will remain in place as maximum economic pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾📈 Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped. 🌦️➡️🌵 Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought. 🛢️⚠️ Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated. 🌱💰 Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs. 🚢📊 Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Lawmakers are pushing to overturn the EPA's biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 using the Congressional Review Act. The effort is considered a long shot and is unlikely to gain traction. 🫘 Soybean futures fell Wednesday as soybean oil volatility and fading rumors of Chinese buying weighed on the market. Corn edged higher on strong export demand and favorable rainfall forecasts across the Corn Belt. 🌾 Wheat futures turned lower after two days of gains as expected rainfall in drought-affected areas pressured prices. Cotton pulled back after hitting a near two-year high, with crude oil prices and widespread drought keeping the longer-term outlook supportive. 💊 The USDA is actively working to address surging fertilizer costs, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in daily contact with the White House. Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas through year-end amid global supply tightness tied to the Iran war. ⛽ US ethanol production dipped 7% week-over-week but remains above year-ago levels, with margins staying healthy across the Corn Belt. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.95 million barrels. 📦 USDA reported a third consecutive flash sale of corn this week, with 130,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. The weekly total now stands at 425,000 metric tons, or 17 million bushels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ✅ Corn & soybean futures recap — what's driving the move higher ✅ Trump extends Iran ceasefire — and what it means for crude oil & biofuels ✅ Senate eyes $15–$20B in additional farmer aid — but is it actually coming? ✅ Biofuel demand surging as crude oil climbs 30%+ since the start of the Iran war ✅ Kalshi & Polymarket moving into crypto perpetual futures — could this force CME's hand on 24/7 commodity markets? ✅ ADM crude corn oil spill on the Mississippi River at Red Wing, MN ✅ USDA flash sales — 12 million bushels of corn sold to Colombia and unknown destinations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 US winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate last week, with only 30% of the crop rated good-excellent — the lowest reading for this week since 2023 and third lowest in a decade. 📉 The situation is even more dire in top HRW-producing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where just 14.6% of the crop is rated good-excellent and nearly half sits in poor-very poor condition. 🌽 Corn planting surged to 11% complete, outpacing the 9% historical average, while soybeans rocketed to 12% planted — more than double the 5% average. 🌱 Spring wheat planting also matched its historical average at 12%, signaling strong early-season momentum across the board. 💰 The Trump administration is eyeing tariff revenue as a tool to boost domestic fertilizer production, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlining plans to expand capacity within 12–18 months. 🏭 In the meantime, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is pressing fertilizer companies for concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than open-ended talks. 🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly in the books at 92% complete, right in line with last year's pace, while favorable weather is supporting the developing safrinha corn crop. ☁️ However, CropProphet's Euro model data suggest Brazil's second corn areas could see just 47% of normal rainfall over both the 1–7 and 8–14 day forecast windows. 🇨🇳 China's agriculture ministry is projecting a 6.1% drop in soybean imports this year, with declines reaching 26% by 2035 as Beijing pushes hard for greater food self-sufficiency. 🥩 Pork, beef, and dairy imports are also expected to fall year-over-year, while total grain production is forecast to climb 5.3% by 2035. 🚢 US corn export inspections came in at 1.7 MMT for the week ending April 16, near the top of pre-report estimates, while soybean shipments hit 748,678 MT — up 34% versus the same week last year. 🌾 Wheat stole the show with inspections of 518,141 MT, a jaw-dropping 90% jump from the prior week, with China accounting for roughly 60% of total weekly inspections across all commodities.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 US Fertilizer Diverted Overseas — Traders are snapping up imported urea at the Port of New Orleans and flipping it to global markets as soaring international prices create a massive arbitrage opportunity. CME Gulf Urea peaked at $720/ton last week, and domestic farmers are feeling the squeeze with no relief in sight. ⚔️ Middle East Tensions Escalate—The US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend, throwing the fragile ceasefire into chaos despite Trump's claims of a near-finalized deal. WTI crude surged ~$5/bbl this morning to $89/bbl, though that's still well off last week's $106 peak. 🌧️ Planting Disruptions Across the Corn Belt—Heavy weekend rains soaked Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana—with some pockets seeing over 4" in 72 hours—throwing a wrench in corn and soybean planting progress. Meanwhile, HRW wheat country stayed bone dry and dealt with a brief freeze, adding more stress to an already strained crop outlook. 📊 Funds Selling Corn in Size — Large money managers dumped 58k corn contracts in the week ending April 14, bringing total selling since the late-March peak to 127k contracts. They still hold a net long of 153k contracts, with modest selling also seen in soybeans and SRW wheat. 🐄 Cattle Markets Rattled by Border Rumors — Cattle futures hit limit-down on speculation that Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would announce a reopening of the US-Mexico feeder cattle border — but no announcement came, with screwworm confirmed just 200 miles from the line. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report came in neutral-to-friendly, with placements down 7% and heifers still at 37% of inventory—signaling no serious herd rebuilding just yet.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Heavy rainfall is disrupting planting across the Corn Belt, with some Iowa farmers potentially sidelined for another week. Speculation about acreage shifts to soybeans due to fertilizer costs is not universal, as many producers pre-booked inputs ahead of the Iran conflict. 🏜️ USDA's latest drought monitor shows improved conditions in parts of the northern Corn Belt thanks to recent rains, but Kentucky, southern Illinois, and parts of Kansas and Nebraska continue to dry out. A staggering 68% of the winter wheat crop is now under drought — the worst reading since December 2022. 🌾 Wheat futures surged Thursday on fears of a weekend freeze hitting Plains winter wheat areas on top of already parched conditions. The Kansas City May contract climbed ~17 cents to close around $6.42/bu, its highest level in over a year. 💰 Agricultural groups are pushing the Trump administration for roughly $15 billion in farm aid as part of a Middle East supplemental spending package. The proposal includes $10 billion for specialty crops, while lawmakers are also eyeing the Homegrown Fertilizer Act to boost domestic production. 📦 US corn export sales came in strong at 1.4 MMT for the week ending April 9, up 14% from the four-week average with Japan leading purchases. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 248k MT, while wheat sales also came in near the low end of expectations. 🕊️ President Trump expressed optimism Thursday about a potential US-Iran deal, citing Iranian concessions on nuclear ambitions and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not publicly confirmed these terms, and many global leaders expect any formal agreement could take up to six months.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Fertilizer prices are climbing, corn futures are rallying, and Kalshi just entered the commodity trading game—here's everything moving ag markets this week. The Trump administration is weighing support packages for farmers dealing with elevated fertilizer costs, while the DOJ investigates potential price collusion in the sector.  Could Kalshi's new 24/7 corn, soybean, and wheat prediction markets actually shake up the CME? We dig into what that could mean for retail and institutional traders alike. On the crop side, early planting has been disrupted by heavy Corn Belt rainfall—but USDA data shows both corn and soybeans are still running ahead of the five-year average. May corn settled near $4.51, its highest point in over a week. Plus, ethanol production hits another seasonal high (up nearly 10% year-over-year). NOPA's March crush data sets a near record despite missing estimates, soy oil stocks hit a 13-year March high, and the S&P 500 closes above 7,000 for the first time ever. All that plus E15 legislation updates, Corn Belt weather maps, and ethanol margin charts.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Rising input costs are squeezing US farmers as fertilizer and fuel prices surge following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A recent Farm Bureau survey shows 94% of respondents say their financial situation has worsened or stayed the same compared to last year — with smaller operations facing the steepest challenges. Wheat futures pushed sharply higher Tuesday on deteriorating crop conditions across the Plains. Hot and dry weather has taken a toll, with 54% of Texas winter wheat rated poor to very poor, and Oklahoma close behind at 48%. HRW wheat country is expected to stay dry for at least another 7-10 days. Tensions between the US and China are heating up, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing Beijing of hoarding oil amid the ongoing Iran conflict. China has yet to purchase a single bushel of US soybeans for new crop delivery, despite earlier talk of major long-term commitments. On a more bullish note for South American supply, Conab raised its outlook for Brazil's soybean crop to a record 179.15mmt, with exports also revised to a record 115.4mmt. Optimism about peace talks sent crude oil tumbling nearly 8% Tuesday, settling around $91/barrel, with WTI trading near $92.50 early this morning. The Nasdaq jumped 2% and the S&P 500 gained 1.1% on hopes that Iran negotiations could resume within days. The USDA also reported flash sales Tuesday—316,000mt of corn to Mexico and 120,000mt to unknown destinations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. In today's update: The DOJ is investigating potential price fixing in the US fertilizer industry, with farmers asked to provide confidential input on the practices of Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. Winter wheat conditions hit their lowest rating since 2023 amid widespread drought across key HRW states. Soybean futures tumbled Monday on expectations of a shift in planted acres away from corn. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is rattling energy and input cost markets, with crude oil topping $99/barrel. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly wrapped up at 87% complete. And weekly export inspections showed strong soybean shipments — up 47% year-over-year — while wheat came in at the low end of expectations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 US BLOCKADES STRAIT OF HORMUZ 🚨 The US is blockading the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Pakistan — and markets are already feeling it. 🛢️ WTI crude surged nearly $8/bbl overnight, with the May '26 contract trading near $105. Grains caught a big bid too, with some contracts gapping higher at the open. 📈 💥 The blockade targets ships entering or departing Iranian ports, countering Tehran's plan to impose transit tolls on vessels. Any country that helps Iran? Hit with a 50% tariff. And Trump isn't ruling out strikes on Iranian infrastructure. This war is far from over. 🌱 Trump is also keeping a close eye on fertilizer prices, calling out the "fertilizer monopoly" on Truth Social and vowing to protect US farmers as costs surge amid the conflict. 📊 CFTC CoT Recap (week ending Apr. 7): Funds were net sellers across the board—47k corn, 23k soybeans, and 12k SRW wheat—largely tied to last week's ceasefire announcement. We're also launching a NEW Daily Fund Tracker chart starting today! 👀 🌽 Friday Futures Recap: Corn May '26 settled at $4.41—down 3¢ on the day, off ~11¢ on the week (4th straight weekly loss) Soybeans hit a 2-week high on a flash meal sale to Italy 🇮🇹 (Italy's biggest single US soybean meal purchase since 2019!) Wheat ended lower on ample global supplies & soft export demand 🌧️ Weekend rains mostly missed key HRW wheat areas in western Kansas and Oklahoma. The 7-day forecast doesn't offer much relief for those dry western zones. Crop ratings drop this afternoon — stay tuned. ⚡ Flash Sales Friday: 125,640mt of corn → unknown destinations 100,000mt of soybean cake/meal → Italy

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn is drifting lower despite a strong crude oil market, with funds trimming their net long position from recent highs. Ample old crop stocks and sufficient 2026 acreage estimates are keeping the bears in control. 🌾 Wheat tumbled to its lowest level since early March after a bearish USDA report showed surging US and world ending stocks. Drought remains a concern in HRW wheat areas, but the market is struggling to find bullish footing. 🫘 Soybeans are holding up better, with large money managers defending a hefty net long position near 190k contracts. US balance sheets could get tight with current acreage estimates — any weather hiccup could be a game changer. 🇧🇷 Brazil is eyeing a jump in its ethanol blend from 30% to 32% to ease consumer fuel costs amid rising global oil prices. The move would boost sugarcane demand and help mills struggling with oversupply and tight margins. 📊 USDA WASDE kept US corn and soybean ending stocks steady while raising wheat stocks to their highest since 2020. World corn stocks were revised higher but remain at an 11-year low, while world soybean stocks were trimmed below expectations.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Markets on edge as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread 🚨 Iran is already alleging violations before talks have formally begun. Peace negotiations are tentatively set for Pakistan this Saturday, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude cratered 16% to settle near $94 🛢️—and Goldman says don't expect the low $80s until the strait fully reopens. The dollar had its worst day since January, dropping 0.8% as investors fled safe havens 💵📉. Markets are now pricing in ~25% odds of a Fed rate cut by year's end. Wheat got slammed—Chicago May down ~18 cents, KC May off ~12—hit by falling crude and rain forecasts across the Plains 🌾☔. Corn closed lower; beans bucked the trend and finished higher. Watch the western HRW areas — they may miss the forecasted rains. Super El Niño on the horizon ☀️🌧️ — models show it developing July/August, peaking in November, and lasting into 2027. Generally favorable for the Corn Belt, but watch for planting delays and disease pressure. USDA WASDE drops at 11am CST today 📊 — expectations are quiet, corn/soy stocks largely unchanged, wheat slightly lower. Post-report breakdown video coming shortly after! Ethanol production hit a seasonal high at 1.12M bpd, up 5% YoY 🌽⚡. Margins remain solid across the Corn Belt at 15–40 cents positive. Lots moving today—stay locked in. 👇

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 BREAKING: US-Iran Ceasefire SHOCKS Markets | Oil Crashes $22, Grains Tumble & What It Means for Farmers Just hours before planned US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, a last-minute two-week ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. Oil plunged nearly 20% overnight—but is the relief rally built to last? 💥 We break down everything you need to know: 🛢️ Oil & Energy — WTI crude cratered from $113 to $91/bbl overnight. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but Iran's proposed $2M-per-vessel transit fees add major uncertainty. Will prices stay elevated? 🌽 Grain Markets — Corn and wheat are under heavy pressure while soybeans are staging a recovery. With funds holding massive net long positions of 210K contracts in corn and 190K in soybeans, will traders defend or liquidate? 📈 Stocks Surge — S&P 500 up 2.5%, Nasdaq up nearly 3% on the ceasefire news. 💸 Inflation Watch — Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 3.4%—the biggest monthly spike in a year. Friday's CPI report will be a major market mover. 🌾 Farmer Sentiment — The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer climbed 11 points in March. Cautious optimism is returning to farm country. 🇷🇺 Russia Wheat — Argus raises its crop forecast to 88.7 MMT. More competition ahead for US wheat exports. 🇨🇳 China Soy Shift—China is rapidly cutting US soybean dependence, with fermented feed alternatives now at 8% of industrial usage and climbing. A potential 6.3% drop in imports could be coming. 📊 Stay ahead of the markets — like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss a daily market update! 🔔

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Crop Markets Update | Wheat Ratings Sink, Cotton Surges & Iran Tensions Rattle Markets Winter wheat is struggling — rated just 35% good-to-excellent, the lowest since 2023 and well below the 5-year average. 🌧️ Rainfall is on the way for parts of the Plains, but the west remains dry. USDA projects US wheat acreage to hit its lowest level since 1919. 📉 🌿 Brazil's soy harvest is 82% done, but dryness is threatening the second corn crop. Rain in the forecast this week could help. 🇺🇸 Cotton futures surged to their highest since December as drought grips 88% of US cotton areas—even as the USDA projects a jump in intended plantings. ⚠️ Geopolitical risk is front and center — Trump's Iran ultimatum deadline hits tonight at 8pm EST. Markets are watching closely. 📦 On the export front, corn shipments came in strong at 79M bushels — up 24% year-over-year. Soybeans beat expectations too.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Oil prices exploded Thursday with WTI crude jumping 11% to $111.54/barrel—the biggest single-day gain in 6 YEARS! 😱 Gas prices are already feeling the heat at $4.11/gallon nationally, and the Iran situation is FAR from over. Trump has given Iran until Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz... the clock is ticking. ⏳ In today's update we cover: 🛢️ Oil's massive surge & what it means for corn prices 🌽 Funds dump 22k corn contracts—but still sitting on HISTORIC net longs 🫘 Soybean funds add 13k contracts with China buying 🌾 Wheat funds go net LONG for the first time since June 2022! 🌧️ Rain returning to HRW wheat country—bearish relief incoming? 🌡️ Drought update—High Plains baking while the Corn Belt gets relief 📦 Export sales: Corn strong, beans soft, wheat hits a marketing year LOW 🥩 JBS strike OVER — 3,800 workers return as cattle market watches closely 💥 Russia-Ukraine tensions flare again with a ship sunk in the Sea of Azov CPI data drops Friday with inflation expected at 3.4% — don't miss it! 📊 👇 Drop your questions in the comments & don't forget to LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for daily market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 MARKETS IN CHAOS: Trump's Iran War Warning Sends Oil Soaring & Stocks Plunging President Trump dropped a bombshell in a primetime address—warning of intensified strikes on Iran over the next 2-3 weeks. Markets responded instantly: WTI crude surges past $107/barrel (+$7) while stocks sell off hard. We break down exactly what this means for commodities and your portfolio. 📉 GRAIN MARKETS GET WHIPSAWED Wheat futures took a beating Wednesday—Chicago May26 down ~19¢ to $5.98/bu, KC May26 off ~22¢ to $6.14/bu—as Trump hinted the Middle East conflict could be nearing its end. Meanwhile, western Plains dryness continues to threaten crops even as rain arrives in the Southeast. Corn and soybeans also slid on the war-end headlines. 🌽 CHINA MAKES A HISTORIC CORN MOVE For the first time in over 15 years, COFCO booked Argentine corn — a major signal of shifting global trade flows. China has booked ZERO US corn for the current marketing year. What does this mean for US ag exports going forward? 🇧🇷 BRAZIL BREAKS RECORDS StoneX raises its Brazil soybean forecast to a record 179.7 MMT, while the USDA sits at 180 MMT. Brazil's corn outlook gets a slight trim to 135.7 MMT. We've got all the charts you need. ⛽ ETHANOL UPDATE Weekly US ethanol production dipped 3.7% week-over-week to 1.08M bbl/day, but margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at +15¢ to +40¢ — a bright spot in an otherwise turbulent week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 US farmers are slashing corn plantings by 3.5% as the Iran war chokes off fertilizer supplies — but the USDA's own data may be nearly worthless with a record-low survey response rate of just 37.6%! Soybean acres are actually rising 4.3%, and grain stocks are up big—so the full picture is more complicated than the headlines suggest. 🌾 US wheat acreage is crashing to its lowest level since 1919, with spring wheat hitting a shocking 56-year low! Dry weather hammering Kansas HRW wheat regions and tightening supply forecasts are sending futures flying—watch this space closely. 🛢️ Oil had a wild March, surging a massive 51%—its biggest monthly gain since 2020—but pulled back 1.5% Tuesday as Trump hinted at a US withdrawal from Iran within weeks! Even if peace comes fast, experts warn it could take months for oil shipments to normalize due to heavy infrastructure damage. 🤝 The high-stakes Trump-Xi summit is still happening, now locked in for May 14–15 in Beijing despite the Iran conflict throwing a wrench in global diplomacy! China has been buying US soybeans at a modest pace this year but has yet to commit to the massive new-crop purchases that were rumored. 🚢 The world is scrambling to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to fertilizer shipments in a humanitarian deal modeled after the famous Black Sea grain corridor! With fertilizer flows blocked, global food prices are under serious pressure — and the stakes for food security worldwide couldn't be higher.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Farmers Ditch Corn for Soybeans — Here's Why It Matters The Iran war is reshaping American agriculture. With urea prices up 40% and fuel costs surging, US farmers are pivoting—corn acreage is set to fall 4.5% while soybeans climb 5.2%. Spring wheat? On track for its lowest plantings since 1970. 📉 Meanwhile, soybean oil is surging 🛢️, crude oil hit $102/barrel for the first time since 2022, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is keeping energy markets on edge. All eyes are on today's USDA Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11am CST—the stocks numbers could be the real market mover. 👀📊 #Farming #Commodities #CornMarket #Soybeans #CrudeOil #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarkets

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Let’s break down the biggest ag market movers right now 🌽📉 🌱 Biofuel Mandates Jump EPA sets record 25.82B gallons 70% of waived volumes reassigned Foreign feedstocks penalized after 2028 Supportive long-term, not bullish today 🏛️ Trump’s Farmer Push Pushing additional aid 💰 New SBA loan guarantees Targeting DEF rollback + lower equipment costs Trade talk strong… but soybean exports lag 📊 Funds Get Active Corn: +49k contracts (big long build) Beans: slight selling Wheat: shorts trimmed significantly 🌧️ Weather Watch Heavy Corn Belt rains incoming Could slow early planting progress HRW wheat may miss key moisture 🌽➡️🌱 Acreage Shift Brewing Corn acres seen down ~4–5% Soybeans up ~5% Fertilizer costs exploding (urea +40%) War impact not fully in USDA data yet 🚢 Export Check Flash sale: 105k mt soybeans Total sales still down ~18% YoY 👉 Bottom line: supportive policy + tighter inputs, but market already priced it in.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com 🌎 Markets & Macro Grains, oil, and global headlines all moving fast—stay sharp. 🌽 Grain Update Corn, soybeans, and wheat action you need to know. ⛽ Energy & Biofuels Ethanol, crude oil, and policy shifts impacting demand. 📈 What It Means Key takeaways to help you stay ahead of the market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. President Trump is headed to China 🇨🇳 for a high-stakes meeting with Xi, and markets are already reacting. Soybeans surged on the news, while corn and wheat followed higher amid fertilizer and acreage concerns. The EPA also issued another E15 summer waiver ⛽🌽, keeping ethanol demand supported—for now. But with plants already running near capacity, how much more corn can actually be used? Meanwhile, fertilizer prices are rising fast 💥, USDA funding is being cut 💰, and ethanol production/margins are improving 📈. 👉 Plenty to unpack across energy, policy, and grain markets. Subscribe for daily updates 👍 and drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 E15 Decision Coming? Another summer waiver may drop today, allowing E15 sales and supporting ethanol demand—not permanent, but still bullish short-term. 🛢️ Oil Still Wild Crude jumped, then pulled back as war headlines flip hourly. No real clarity yet—volatility remains high ⚡ 🌾 Fertilizer Concerns Growing Prices are surging, and many farmers haven’t locked supply. Washington is scrambling for solutions ahead of Friday’s ag event. 🌍 Global Supply Tightening Russia just restricted exports, and Australia is cutting wheat acres—potential supply issues ahead. 👉 Energy + fertilizer + policy = big market risk (and opportunity) 👍 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re seeing locally!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down a wild mix of geopolitics 🌍, energy markets 🛢️, biofuels policy 🌽, and key ag fundamentals 🌾👇 🛢️ Oil Market Whiplash Oil prices dropped sharply Monday as optimism grew that the Iran conflict could cool off. WTI crude plunged more than 10%, hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks after President Trump signaled progress in talks and ordered a temporary pause on strikes. That said, the situation remains volatile—Iran denies direct talks, and attacks in the region continue. Bottom line: headlines are still driving massive swings in energy and commodity markets. 🌽 Biofuels Policy Incoming The Trump administration is expected to roll out new biofuel blending quotas by month-end, likely tied to Friday’s White House agriculture event. EPA head Lee Zeldin confirmed updated Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requirements are coming soon, with more rulemaking to follow. Key issues include diesel volumes, RIN values, and blending mandates—plus ongoing debate over year-round E15. This is a big one for corn demand and ethanol margins. 🌾 Wheat Weather Watch HRW wheat areas across the Plains remain dry, with little relief expected over the next 10 days. Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and the southern Plains are all under pressure, though longer-range models hint at rain returning. Current Kansas ratings sit at 46% good/excellent and 19% poor/very poor. Weather risk is building—but forecasts beyond a week are always shaky. 🚢 Strong Export Demand US export activity was solid last week: Corn shipments hit 1.7 mmt (strong vs. last year) Soybeans came in at 1.1 mmt, with China taking 60% Wheat exceeded expectations at 458k mt Demand continues to hold up well, especially on the corn and soybean side. 🐖 China Demand Concerns China’s hog sector is under serious pressure. Pork prices have collapsed to multi-year lows, and producer margins are shrinking fast. Weak consumer demand and rising feed costs are forcing Beijing to step in—cutting herd sizes and buying pork for reserves. This has major implications for global feed demand, especially soymeal. 🇧🇷 Brazil Harvest Update Brazil’s soybean harvest is lagging, now at 68% complete vs. 80% last year. Dry weather helped recently, but rains are coming back into the forecast. Meanwhile, second crop corn planting is nearly finished at 97%. Timing and logistics here remain critical for global supply flows. ⚡ Flash Sales USDA confirmed fresh demand: 102,000 mt of corn sold to Mexico (new crop) 161,120 mt of soybeans sold to Mexico (new crop) Steady demand continues to show up on the daily wire. 👍 If you’re in agriculture, these moving pieces matter—energy, policy, weather, and global demand are all tightly connected right now.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ⚠️ Middle East tensions are escalating fast… and markets are watching closely. 🌍 Geopolitics Trump issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz—threatening strikes on power infrastructure if it’s not reopened. Iran pushes back, raising fears of broader conflict and long-term shipping disruptions. 🛢️ Energy vs. Grains Crude oil holding firm despite the headlines, while grain markets slipped Friday. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pressured by profit-taking, a stronger dollar, and improving US weather outlooks. 📊 Fund Positioning Funds keep piling into corn (largest net long since Feb ‘25), trimming soybeans, and reducing wheat shorts. Positioning remains a key driver heading into spring. 🌱 Global Ag Developments China eases restrictions on Brazilian soybeans after recent trade tensions—potentially smoothing export flows during peak shipment season. ⛽ Diesel & Inflation Diesel prices surge above $5—fueling inflation concerns across agriculture, trucking, and the broader economy. 🐄 Cattle Market Cattle on Feed report leans bearish with larger-than-expected placements, though context matters vs. last year’s low numbers. 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are grain markets too cheap here?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 War & Bullish Setup Bank of America says ag markets may be underpricing the Iran war. Prolonged conflict could tighten fertilizer supplies and spark a new grain bull cycle 🌽📈 ⛽ Energy Shock = Fertilizer Risk Damage to Qatar LNG + soaring nat gas prices = major nitrogen concerns. Urea futures hit multi-year highs… big implications for crop costs ⚠️ 🌽 Grains Higher Corn, beans, and wheat all pushed higher Thursday on energy + fertilizer fears. New calendar-year highs in corn contracts 🚜 💰 Funds Still Long Funds were net buyers again—holding large long positions in both corn and soybeans 👀 🛢️ Oil Surge Crude spiked sharply this week amid Middle East attacks. Higher energy = higher input costs + biofuel support 🔥 🏛️ Fertilizer Bill New bipartisan “Fertilizer Transparency Act” aims to improve pricing visibility and boost domestic production 🇺🇸 🌧️ Weather Update Better moisture in the Corn Belt, but worsening drought in the Plains. Mixed outlook heading into planting season 🌦️ 👉 If you’re watching inputs, energy, and geopolitics… this could get interesting fast. 👍 Like & subscribe for more daily grain market updates 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—bull market coming?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Wheat Leads the Rally Wheat futures surged on weather concerns across the Plains—winter damage risk + hot/dry forecasts gave bulls a reason to step in. 🌽 Corn & Beans Follow + Funds Active Corn and soybeans moved higher alongside crude oil 📈 Funds were aggressive buyers again—corn and beans both sitting with big net long positions. 📊 Acreage Debate Heating Up Private estimates are creeping higher on corn acres, but fertilizer costs could throw a wrench into everything. March 31 numbers? Probably noisy. June will matter more. 🚢 Jones Act Waived The administration temporarily lifted shipping restrictions to ease fertilizer and fuel logistics—but it may be too late to impact spring costs. 🌍 China Trip Delayed Trump’s China visit pushed back amid geopolitical tensions—trade talks (and ag demand expectations) remain in limbo. ⛽ Ethanol Slips Production dipped, stocks rose, and margins are hovering around breakeven across the Corn Belt. 💵 Fed Holds Rates Steady No rate change. Markets slid after the announcement as uncertainty tied to global conflict remains high.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 White House Biofuels Event & RVO Decision President Trump is hosting a major ag event next week with farmers and biofuel producers 🇺🇸 Comes just ahead of the 2026–2027 blending mandate decision Potential increase in mandates = stronger demand for ethanol & biodiesel ⚠️ Refiners pushing back, warning of higher fuel prices Timing matters with Middle East conflict already pressuring energy markets 💸 Rising Farm Costs Becoming Political War-driven input inflation is hitting farmers hard 🚜 Fertilizer + fuel costs surging right before planting Margins already tight due to weak grain prices Could impact rural sentiment ahead of midterms 🗳️ Higher farm costs = potential food inflation pressure 🍔 🌾 Wheat Market Update Wheat futures slipped Tuesday 📉 Chicago wheat ~ $5.90, KC wheat ~ $6.07 Cold temps + ongoing dryness in the Plains Forecast: hot + dry → then cooldown Russia still undercutting U.S. on price 🌍 🌍 Trump Delays China Trip Trade tensions stay in focus 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Visit pushed back 5–6 weeks Trump ties trip to China helping reopen Hormuz Treasury says delay is logistical ⏳ Delays progress on ag trade talks (soybeans!) Meanwhile: Strait of Hormuz effectively closed 🚢 Iranian attacks continue across the region Energy markets remain on edge 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Export Problems Brazil facing fresh export disruptions 🚫 China tightening inspection standards Issues: insects, damage, treated beans Cargill paused some shipments Local soybean bids have collapsed in some areas Officials heading to China to try and fix it 🤝 👉 This could shift demand back toward the U.S. if it drags on

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Grain markets got slammed Monday, with soybeans limit down after President Trump suggested he may delay his meeting with Xi Jinping. Corn and wheat also moved sharply lower, while expanded soybean limits point to more volatility ahead. 🚛 Brazil’s soybean freight costs are rising fast as higher oil prices push diesel prices higher during peak export season. That’s creating logistical stress, hurting bids, and raising the risk that buyers shift demand to the US or Argentina. 🛢️ Crude oil pulled back Monday but bounced overnight as Middle East attacks continued and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remained high. At the same time, China is tightening fertilizer exports, adding even more fuel to an already bullish global fertilizer story. 🫘 NOPA reported a record February soybean crush, while soybean oil stocks jumped to the highest level in years. Export inspections were solid overall, with soybean shipments beating expectations and China taking the majority of the load. 🥩 In the cattle market, a strike at JBS in Greeley adds another wrinkle to an already tight beef supply situation. Thanks for watching—subscribe, like this video, and drop your thoughts in the comments below.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Grain Markets & Policy Update President Trump told the Financial Times he “may delay” a summit with Xi Jinping amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials continued this weekend, and China reiterated its commitment to 25 mmt of U.S. soybean purchases annually for the next three years, though soybeans fell early Monday after comments about “non-soybean row crops.” 📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC) Speculative money continues to pile into ag markets. Funds bought 147k corn contracts, pushing the net long to the largest since March 2025. Funds also added to soybeans and SRW wheat, and private estimates suggest funds may have been record net long soybeans by Friday’s close. 🌾 Wheat Weather Concerns Chicago wheat rallied Friday on fund buying, higher crude oil, and drought concerns across the Plains. Forecasts show little rainfall in HRW regions over the next two weeks while cold temperatures threaten SRW areas this week. 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Harvest Brazil’s harvest is about 57% complete, behind last year but near the five-year average. Conab trimmed its crop estimate slightly to 177.85 mmt, still a record, citing excessive rain and uneven weather. 🧪 Fertilizer Market Developments The U.S. approved Venezuelan fertilizer sales to help offset disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite the move, analysts say limited capacity means little short-term relief, with NOLA urea already up sharply. 🏛️ Policy & Farmer Relief Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is exploring multiple options to reduce fertilizer costs and acknowledged that additional farmer aid remains on the table if conditions worsen. 👍 If you enjoy these daily market updates, subscribe to the channel and jump in the comments with your thoughts. Your support keeps the independent content coming.

🧪 Fertilizer Stocks Surge Shares of CF Industries hit a record high Thursday, jumping as much as 14% intraday—its biggest one-day gain since 2020. CF controls roughly 40% of the North American nitrogen fertilizer market. Profit margins are likely expanding as nitrogen prices surge while the company benefits from cheap North American natural gas. Many global competitors are facing much higher gas costs or supply disruptions. Speculative buying may also be contributing. Shares of Nutrien, which controls about 22% of the North American nitrogen market, rose nearly 8%. It’s worth noting that most ammonia and UAN used in the US is produced domestically, but the US relies heavily on imported urea—roughly 65% of supply comes from imports. 🛢️ CME CEO Warns on Government Oil Intervention CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that government intervention in crude oil futures would be a “biblical disaster,” saying markets do not react well when governments attempt to influence pricing. The comments follow reports that the US Treasury may be considering actions—including possible futures market activity—to push oil prices lower. Some traders have pointed to a series of large unexplained trades this week and questioned whether government involvement could be possible. WTI crude plunged from $119/bbl Monday to $77/bbl Tuesday before rebounding sharply. ⛽ Fuel Prices Spike Retail gasoline prices have surged to the highest level since mid-2023. GasBuddy estimates the national average near $3.65/gal, up more than 70 cents from last month. California leads the nation at roughly $5.39/gal, while Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona all average above $4.00. AAA estimates the national diesel average near $4.89/gal, up $1.22 from last month. Gasoline accounts for roughly 4% of the CPI basket, meaning a 25% increase in gasoline prices could theoretically add about 1% to inflation. 🚢 Oil Jumps as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Continues Crude oil rallied sharply again Thursday. May WTI gained $8.48 to close at $95.70 while Brent settled above $100. Two tankers traveling through Iraqi waters were reportedly struck by Iranian explosives, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said naval escorts through the strait are possible by the end of the month. 🌱 Soybeans Rally to Best Trade Since 2024 Soybean futures posted their strongest trade since May 2024. The expiring March contract traded as high as $12.23 while the most active May contract reached $12.38. The rally has been fueled by optimism surrounding renewable fuel policy, improving US-China trade sentiment, and sharply higher crude oil prices. Brazilian trade groups are also expressing concern about exports to China. Brazil recently implemented stricter pest and weed inspections after a request from Chinese authorities. As a result, Cargill temporarily halted soybean purchases and shipments to China. Industry groups are now working with officials to resolve the issue and restore trade flows.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Brazil Soybean Export Disruption Cargill has paused Brazilian soybean exports to China after Brazil implemented stricter pest and weed inspections at China’s request. Some shipments have failed the new standards, forcing exporters to halt purchases from farmers and causing local soybean bids to disappear in parts of Brazil. 🛢️ Iran War Drives Fertilizer Concerns Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast highlighted how the Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are pushing fertilizer prices higher—just ahead of spring planting. Rising input costs could eventually translate into higher global food prices. 📈 Grain Futures Rally Soybeans surged again Wednesday with May beans closing near $12.14. Corn and wheat also gained as crude oil rebounded and geopolitical tensions escalated, while speculation grows that higher fertilizer and fuel costs could influence US acreage decisions. 🤝 US-China Trade Talks Ahead US and Chinese trade officials will meet in Paris this weekend ahead of President Trump’s planned China visit later this month. Markets are watching closely as analysts suggest new soybean purchases could follow. 🏭 Ethanol Production Jumps US ethanol output climbed to an eight-week high, while inventories dropped. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive, providing support to corn demand. 🛢️ Record Strategic Oil Release The International Energy Agency announced a record 400 million-barrel emergency oil release, but crude still rallied above $88 as markets worry about prolonged Middle East disruptions. 📊 Inflation Holds Steady US CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching expectations. However, the report doesn’t yet reflect the recent surge in energy prices, which could add inflation pressure in the months ahead.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Ag Markets Lag the Commodity Boom Agricultural markets have badly underperformed the broader commodity complex. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged past its 2022 peak and is up more than 19% so far in 2026, while the Bloomberg Ag Subindex (grains, softs, and livestock) has gained less than 5%. Recent strength in commodities has been driven first by gold and silver and more recently by energy markets.  🛢️ Oil Prices Swing on Iran War Headlines Crude oil plunged Tuesday, with WTI falling nearly 12% to $83.45, its biggest single-day drop since 2022. Confusion over tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, talk of easing sanctions on Russian oil, and speculation that the war with Iran could end soon pressured the market. The IEA also proposed what would be the largest oil reserve release in history, adding more downside pressure. 🧪 Fertilizer Supply at Risk The Middle East conflict is threatening fertilizer supplies ahead of spring planting. The Persian Gulf region accounts for nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports, and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten supply. Higher fertilizer prices may encourage farmers to shift acres away from corn toward soybeans, while rising fuel costs could further increase production expenses.  ⛽ Oil Traders Secure Credit Major commodity trading houses are securing billions in additional credit lines from banks as energy market volatility increases. Higher oil prices raise the value of cargo shipments and can trigger large futures margin calls, increasing liquidity needs across the trading sector. 🌴 Biofuel Supply Risks in Southeast Asia Shipping disruptions are pushing methanol prices higher in Southeast Asia, threatening biodiesel production tied to palm oil. Indonesia relies heavily on methanol imports from the Middle East, and prolonged supply issues could disrupt its blending mandates. Meanwhile, Chicago Platts ethanol futures have rallied to about $1.81/gal, with US ethanol margins positive by roughly 10–30 cents across the Corn Belt. 📊 USDA Report Mostly a Non-Event Tuesday’s USDA report contained few surprises. US ending stocks were left unchanged. Global corn stocks increased on larger crops in Brazil, Ukraine, and India, while global wheat and soybean stocks were trimmed slightly. Brazil’s corn crop estimate increased, while Argentina’s corn and soybean crops were reduced. 📉 Bond Traders Turn Bearish Investors have begun betting against US Treasuries as higher oil prices raise inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about 20 basis points since late February, and markets are watching today’s CPI report closely for signals on future Fed policy.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🪖 War signals easing: Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could be short-lived and nearing an end. He is also considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets cooled, with crude dropping below $90 after earlier surging above $119. 🌍⛽ 🛢️🤝 Global response: Group of Seven energy ministers will meet to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves, and the U.S. may ease oil sanctions on Russia to help stabilize energy prices. 🌽📉 Grain markets pull back: Profit-taking pushed futures lower. Corn fell ~7¢ to $4.54/bu (after hitting the highest level since May 2025 earlier in the session).Soybeans dropped ~5¢ to $11.96/bu.Wheat declined ~14¢ to about $6.03/bu. The sell-off came as crude oil retreated from overnight highs.📊📅 USDA report day: United States Department of Agriculture will release the Crop Production and WASDE report (11am CST). Expectations: Slight increase in U.S. corn ending stocks 🌽Slight decline in soybean & wheat stocks 🌱🌾Global stocks mostly unchanged Traders are more focused on the upcoming Prospective Plantings report later this month.🚢🌽 Export shipments: Corn: 1.5 mmt, down week-to-week but still strong.Soybeans: 879k mt, near expectations; China bought ~47% 🇨🇳Wheat: 496k mt, well above expectations.🇧🇷🌱 Brazil harvest update: Soybean harvest is 51% complete, the slowest pace in five years, though still near the average. Dry weather in March has helped progress. Second-crop corn planting is 82% complete. 🥩⚠️ Beef plant strike: Workers at a major JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado (capacity 6,000 cattle/day) plan to strike. Impact may be limited because the industry currently has more slaughter capacity than available cattle, allowing feedlots to shift animals to other plants. 👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Middle East tensions escalated over the weekend as Iran named the son of Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader. Israel struck oil facilities near Tehran, while Iran threatened attacks on regional energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut due to missile and drone risks, disrupting energy shipments. 🛢️ Oil markets turned extremely volatile. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures briefly surged over 25% to above $110 before easing to around $101, still sharply higher. Production cuts from Kuwait and Iraq — with more expected — are adding to supply concerns. 🌽 Grain markets rallied alongside energy. Soybeans climbed to about $12.20, corn rose near $4.69, and wheat advanced toward $6.26 as higher oil prices lifted agricultural commodities. 🇨🇳 China signaled stability in U.S. relations. Despite the Iran conflict, Beijing indicated it wants steady ties with Washington ahead of a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with trade officials set to meet in Paris next week. 📊 Funds turned bullish on grains. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers bought 65k corn contracts and 16k soybean contracts last week, while trimming 7k SRW wheat contracts. 👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Grains Higher as Oil Surges Rising crude oil prices supported grain futures Thursday. May corn gained nearly 10¢ to ~$4.54, soybeans climbed nearly 10¢ to ~$11.79, and Chicago wheat rallied about 16¢ to ~$5.84. WTI crude jumped more than 8%, helping lift ag markets. Fresh highs were posted overnight in several corn, soybean, and wheat contracts. 📈 🛢️ White House Weighs Oil Price Measures The Trump administration is considering steps to cool the recent oil rally, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, waiving fuel blending requirements, and even potentially trading oil futures. WTI has surged about 20% since Sunday and moved above $80/bbl for the first time since July 2024. ⛽ 🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Raised Agroconsult boosted its Brazil soybean crop estimate to a record 183.1 mmt, up 850k from the prior outlook. For comparison: USDA 180 mmt and Conab 178 mmt. 🇧🇷 🚢 Strong Corn Export Sales US corn export sales impressed at 2 mmt (80 mb) last week, well above expectations. Soybeans and wheat were near the low end of estimates, with China and Mexico the top buyers respectively. 🌎 🌧️ Drought Expands in the Corn Belt About 38% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing drought conditions, with deterioration across the High Plains. Corn 51% | Soybeans 53% | Winter Wheat 56% | Spring Wheat 19% | Cattle 57% 🌾 🥩 Senate Bill Targets Meatpacker Structure Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would limit major meatpackers to processing only one type of meat and impose concentration limits in the beef industry. Critics say it could weaken the supply chain and raise costs for consumers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌧️ Rain Hits the Corn Belt Rain has returned to the drought-stricken Corn Belt. Over the last 72 hours, a wide band dropped 1–3 inches across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Radar remains active this morning, with a strong system stretching from southeast Missouri into southern/eastern Illinois and across Indiana and Ohio. 📉 Grain Futures Slip Grain markets moved lower Wednesday as attention shifted away from the Middle East conflict. May corn lost nearly 3 cents to around $4.44, May soybeans fell about 1 cent to near $11.70, and Chicago May wheat dropped roughly 6 cents to about $5.68. Ample global supplies, concerns over Chinese soybean demand, and rain forecasts across the winter wheat belt weighed on prices. ⚖️ DOJ Investigates Fertilizer Companies The US Department of Justice is investigating several major fertilizer producers for potential price collusion. Companies under scrutiny include Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. The probe is in its early stages but has bipartisan support amid concerns over high farm input costs and food prices. 🚢 Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapses Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted. Vessel traffic dropped from more than 100 ships late last week to just a handful early this week. The strait is a critical chokepoint for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer feedstocks, and disruptions have pushed commodity prices higher. ✈️ Fuel Buyers Rush to Hedge Airlines and shipping firms are rushing to hedge fuel costs as crude prices surge. Many are using call options to protect against further spikes, with jet fuel prices in Europe hitting their highest level since 2022. 🌽 Ethanol Production Update US ethanol production slipped to 1.1 million barrels per day last week, down slightly from the prior week but still above last year. Stocks increased to 26.34 million barrels. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from roughly 5 to 35 cents. 📦 Flash Corn Sale USDA reported a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons (about 5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. 👍 If you enjoy these quick updates, make sure to subscribe and hit the notification bell so you never miss a video.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Iran Conflict & Fertilizer Markets The war in Iran has led to a partial pause in fertilizer bidding as production curtailments and Gulf shipping disruptions slow movement. The Middle East accounts for about 25% of global urea exports, and US inventories were already tight. If nitrogen equals 10–20% of a corn grower’s costs, a 40% price spike could raise total production costs by 4–8%, which has sparked talk of aggressive acreage switching away from corn. 🚢 US Insurance Backstop for Gulf Shipping The US will help insure ships traveling through the Gulf as war-risk premiums surge. President Trump ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to assist with insurance costs and said the US Navy may escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. Officials are also prepared to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if supply disruptions continue. 💵 US Dollar Surges The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has jumped sharply since the conflict began, marking its strongest two-day rally in nearly a year. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and could delay Fed rate cuts. Unlike past oil shocks, the US is now a major energy exporter, which has helped support the dollar. 🥩 Brazilian Beef Trade at Risk A prolonged conflict could disrupt Brazilian beef exports through Middle Eastern shipping routes. About 10% of Brazil’s beef exports go directly to the Middle East, while 30–40% pass through the region en route to Asia and China. If flows are disrupted, the US could become an alternative market. 📊 Farmer Sentiment Improves Slightly The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer rose to 116 in February, up slightly from January as current conditions improved. However, expectations for the future weakened, and 44% of farmers said their operations are worse off than a year ago. 🌽 USDA Flash Corn Sale USDA reported a flash sale of 196,000 mt (about 8 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. The war in Iran poses risks to global fertilizer production and supply chains 🌍. The Gulf region hosts some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, and roughly one-third of global crop nutrients pass through the Strait of Hormuz. While the US imports little fertilizer directly from Iran, it relies heavily on supplies from other Gulf countries shipping through the strait. Fertilizer prices—especially urea—have already risen amid disruption fears. Natural gas prices also moved higher after Qatar temporarily shut down a major facility Monday, adding pressure since gas is a key input for nitrogen fertilizer. Roughly 25% of global anhydrous ammonia exports and 20-25% of global urea exports move through the Strait of Hormuz. Many US fertilizer retailers pulled their offers yesterday due to the uncertainty. The conflict is also influencing ag markets 🌽🫘. Soybean oil gained as much as 3.9% Monday as higher crude prices boosted biofuel demand. Soybean futures moved lower amid uncertainty regarding Chinese purchases and whether President Trump’s planned meeting with Xi Jinping later this month will occur as scheduled. Corn futures declined on concerns that disruptions to Brazilian shipments to Iran could reduce demand. Wheat futures were also lower as traders gave back last week’s gains while watching whether global grain shipments could be affected. The conflict is beginning to impact gasoline prices ⛽. WTI crude surged 8.4% Monday to $72.74 per barrel after President Trump suggested the conflict could last longer than a few weeks. According to GasBuddy, the national average gasoline price rose 5 cents Sunday to $2.99 per gallon. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with tankers avoiding the region as insurers cancel vessel coverage. Shipping rates for oil and gas have surged, and continued disruptions could contribute to broader inflation pressures. Brazil soybean production estimates were trimmed 🌱. AgRural lowered its forecast to 178mmt from 181mmt and reported harvest progress at 39% as of last week, well behind last year’s 50%. StoneX also cut its estimate to 177.8mmt from 181.6mmt. Both revisions were tied to drought conditions in Rio Grande do Sul.  US ethanol production reached a new all-time high last year ⛽🌽. Output climbed to 16.5 billion gallons in 2025, up 1.7% from the prior year, supported by strong domestic demand and record exports. The national average blend rate hit 10.5%, while domestic consumption increased to 14.3 billion gallons. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, growth reflects expanded E15 sales and could increase further if Congress approves year-round nationwide E15. US ethanol exports jumped 13% year over year to 2.2 billion gallons. US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the fourth straight week 🚢. USDA reported 1.9mmt (73m bu) of corn inspected for export during the week ending February 26—down 8% from the prior week but up 37% year over year. Soybean shipments totaled 1.1mmt (42m bu), up 67% vs. the previous week and 62% above last year. China accounted for about 65% of inspections. Wheat shipments totaled 344,272mt (13m bu), down 39% week over week and 12% below last year. Roughly 12 cargoes of US soybeans were shipped to China last week—2 from the PNW and 10 from the Gulf—totaling about 30m bushels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Geopolitics & Middle East Developments Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed over the weekend following a US-Israeli strike on Saturday that also eliminated several senior Iranian officials. Authorities reported that the attacks killed and wounded hundreds of civilians. The strike came after US-Iran negotiations aimed at addressing Iran’s nuclear program ultimately failed. In retaliation, Iran launched attacks against US and Israeli bases across the Middle East and vowed to continue further strikes.  🛢️ Oil Markets & Strait of Hormuz Closure Oil prices surged Sunday following the US and Israeli strikes. WTI crude oil futures opened more than $8 per barrel higher and were trading about $4.60 per barrel, or roughly 7%, higher early this morning. The rally is being driven primarily by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following Saturday’s attacks, Iran announced the waterway would be closed to navigation, halting the flow of oil shipments. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies typically move through the strait.  🇨🇳 China, Energy Security & Trump–Xi Summit The strike could complicate President Trump’s upcoming visit to China. Beijing publicly condemned the attack and warned it could further destabilize the Middle East. Despite its strong rhetoric, China is not expected to intervene militarily. The Trump–Xi summit scheduled for later this month is still expected to proceed, though major breakthroughs appear unlikely. China imports about 14% of its crude oil needs from Iran and accounts for roughly 80–90% of Iran’s oil exports, as sanctions limit purchases from other countries. 🌾 Grain Markets React to Geopolitical Risk Wheat futures surged on Friday. The Chicago May 2026 contract rose 17 cents to close near $5.92 per bushel, its highest level since July 2025. The rally was fueled by heightened US-Iran tensions that triggered short covering by the funds. Corn and soybean futures also moved higher, with May corn gaining about 5 cents to settle near $4.49 per bushel and May soybeans rising roughly 7 cents to close near $11.71 per bushel. Traders were clearly anticipating a potential weekend escalation on Friday. Grains showed some early strength overnight but were mostly steady early this morning. 📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders The CFTC released its weekly Commitment of Traders report on Friday. For the week ending February 24, large money managers were net buyers of 29,000 corn contracts and net buyers of 12,000 soybean contracts. Funds were also net buyers of 52,000 SRW wheat contracts during the week. The net short position in SRW wheat shrank to 18,000 contracts, the smallest since October 2022. Private estimates suggested funds held a net long of about 25,000 wheat contracts at Friday’s close, along with a net long of roughly 180,000 soybean contracts and a reduced SRW wheat net short of about 10,000 contracts.  🌽 Crop Insurance Prices & Acreage Outlook This year’s crop insurance pricing provides improved coverage for soybeans, while corn faces greater downside risk. The spring projected soybean price is $11.09 per bushel, up 55 cents from last year. The corn projected price declined 8 cents to $4.62 per bushel. Spring wheat’s projected price stands at $6.19 per bushel, also 55 cents higher year over year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube 🇺🇸🇧🇷 US vs Brazil Soybean Profitability This week, the University of Illinois farmdoc team broke down a critical difference between US and Brazilian soybean economics. Brazil’s costs are heavily tied to direct inputs like fertilizer, while US producers face far larger overhead expenses driven by elevated farmland values. Brazilian production costs surged from 2020–2024 due to fertilizer inflation and currency weakness, yet profitability held up thanks to strong prices and export demand. US margins were far less stable, contributing to losses in multiple years. 📈 Soybean Market Update Soybean futures pushed higher Tuesday, with strength linked to easing fears surrounding US tariff policy and China demand. The market continues to weigh the potential impact of evolving trade policy, while rumors of Chinese PNW business circulated. Traders remain cautious but attentive to any confirmation of export activity. 🌽 Corn & Wheat Trade Corn futures were slightly lower. Chicago wheat was mostly steady as traders monitored persistent dryness across key HRW regions. Weather remains the dominant driver, with warm and windy conditions stressing parts of the Southern Plains, though rain chances loom further out. 🌦️ Weather Watch Forecast models keep much of Kansas and surrounding wheat areas dry near-term, while temperatures run well above normal. Moisture prospects in the extended window remain a focal point for price direction. 🧪 Fertilizer & Tariff Policy Most fertilizer imports remain exempt under the latest tariff framework. Key products like ammonia, sulfur, and sulfuric acid face minimal disruption, largely due to Canadian dominance in US import flows. ₿ Bitcoin Sentiment Investor confidence remains fragile. A large share of supply is now underwater, reinforcing a pattern where rallies encounter selling pressure. Despite price weakness, ETF positioning suggests longer-term holders have not fully exited.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Trade drama is back in the headlines. President Trump is threatening higher tariffs on countries that fail to honor trade agreements. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, the EU announced it would pause ratification of its agreement, while India is deferring talks on its own deal. Despite the legal setback, the White House says it remains committed to its trade agenda and is exploring alternative tools to implement tariffs. Markets clearly reacted to the renewed uncertainty, with stocks under pressure to start the week. Grain markets felt the ripple effects. Soybean and wheat futures moved lower Monday as traders weighed the potential impact of trade disruptions and retaliation tied to the newly announced 15% global tariff. Corn futures, meanwhile, managed to hold steady. When policy uncertainty rises, volatility often follows — and that theme remains firmly in play. Export data offered a few surprises. US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the third straight week, posting a very strong year-over-year gain. Wheat inspections also came in above trade guesses. Soybean shipments, however, disappointed and continue to reflect uneven demand patterns. China remained a major buyer, accounting for roughly half of weekly inspections. USDA also reported a fresh flash sale of corn to Colombia, adding to an already solid sales pace this marketing year. Demand for US corn has been a notable bright spot recently, especially when compared to other segments of the export complex. Weather and field conditions remain a major talking point in South America. Brazil’s soybean harvest is advancing at its slowest pace in several years, with rains and longer crop cycles creating delays. Planting progress for Brazil’s second corn crop is also lagging last year’s pace, which could become increasingly important for global feed grain supply expectations. Outside of grains, US consumers continue to show remarkable resilience in the face of high beef prices. Despite record price levels, demand remains strong as buyers adapt by shifting toward more affordable cuts and smaller portions. The protein story remains a powerful force across the broader agricultural landscape. As always, volatility, policy, and global production trends remain key market drivers. 👍 If you enjoy straightforward market commentary, be sure to subscribe. 💬 Drop your thoughts or questions in the comments—I read them all.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Soybean markets started the week wrestling with fresh tariff drama. The Supreme Court struck down the administration’s prior global tariffs, ruling that the use of emergency powers was unlawful. Shortly afterward, the White House announced a new blanket tariff approach, creating another wave of uncertainty across financial and commodity markets. The key question for agriculture remains unchanged: how will this impact trade flows and demand, particularly from China? Earlier signals pointed toward stronger soybean buying interest, but policy volatility continues to cloud the outlook. Meanwhile, USDA is preparing to roll out a major round of farm assistance through the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. The application window opens today, with payments expected to move quickly. Market participants will be watching closely to see how the agency handles what could be a surge in producer enrollment. The program arrives at a time when farm margins remain under pressure and policy uncertainty is elevated. Export demand signals were mixed in the latest weekly data. Corn demand continues to hold up relatively well despite some week-to-week variability, while soybean and wheat sales showed uneven momentum. Traders remain highly sensitive to shifts in global demand and competitiveness. The latest Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding to positions across the grain complex, with soybeans drawing particular attention. Positioning trends remain an important driver of short-term price movement, especially in an environment dominated by macro headlines. In livestock, the latest Cattle on Feed report landed near expectations and was generally viewed as neutral. While placements data offered some supportive elements, the overall numbers did not point to a major shift in supply outlook. Lots to unpack this week as markets digest policy developments, demand signals, and fund activity. Stay tuned.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back 🌾 Wheat futures pushed sharply higher on Thursday, fueled largely by short covering as traders reacted to drought and high winds across the US Southern Plains. Weather risks remain front and center, with ongoing concerns about potential crop stress in key HRW regions. There was also chatter surrounding possible issues with Ukraine’s wheat crop. Chicago and Kansas City contracts both posted solid gains. The Climate Prediction Center added another layer of support with updated seasonal outlooks calling for a warm and dry pattern across much of wheat country. While long-range forecasts always deserve some skepticism, the market clearly paid attention. 🌱 USDA Acreage & Production Outlook USDA projects an increase in soybean acreage this season, while corn acres are expected to decline. Soybeans are viewed as offering stronger relative profitability, helping drive the shift. Despite fewer corn acres, production is still forecast to be massive. Wheat acreage is seen slipping slightly. ⛽ Ethanol Production & Margins US ethanol production moved higher last week, and stocks also increased. Margins reportedly strengthened across much of the Corn Belt, a supportive signal for corn demand. We’ll take a look at what’s driving profitability and why this matters. 🚢 Ethanol & DDGS Trade Ethanol exports surged to one of the highest monthly totals on record, capping off a year of very strong international demand. DDGS shipments also remained robust. Trade flows continue to play a critical role in demand dynamics. 🚜 John Deere Shares Surge John Deere shares posted a stunning rally following earnings. The company exceeded expectations and raised its income outlook. Management commentary hinted at stabilizing farm economics and potential improvement in equipment demand. 🛢️ Crude Oil & Geopolitics Crude oil climbed to multi-month highs amid escalating US-Iran tensions and renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Energy markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Ag Outlook Forum – Acreage & Yield Estimates USDA will release its first look at 2026 acreage and yield projections this morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum. Analysts expect corn acreage near 94.9 million acres with production around 15.9 billion bushels. Soybean acreage is forecast near 84.9 million acres with production pegged at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is projected at 44.8 million acres with production near 1.9 billion bushels. These numbers often set the tone for new-crop expectations and market psychology. 🚜 NCGA Warns of Farm Financial Stress The National Corn Growers Association released a report emphasizing mounting financial pressure across US agriculture. The group argues that many corn farmers are facing multiple years of negative margins amid rising costs and increased volatility. Long-term consolidation trends continue as productivity gains fail to consistently translate into profitability. Off-farm income remains critical for many operations. Demand growth and supportive policy remain central themes. 🌾 Wheat Strength – Weather Concerns Kansas City wheat futures posted fresh multi-month highs overnight, with nearby contracts reaching their best levels since late summer. Comments from Ukraine’s farmers union regarding winter wheat risks following a thaw and cold snap helped support prices. Wheat continues to show relative strength compared to corn. 📊 Corn & Soybean Price Action Soybeans briefly traded into fresh multi-month highs, while corn futures remain sluggish ahead of First Notice Day. Spreads, positioning, and technical flows are all in focus as traders manage delivery risk and roll activity. ⛽ E15 Policy Push Continues Ag groups continue pressing for year-round nationwide E15 sales despite missed legislative deadlines. Advocates argue expanded blends would boost corn demand and potentially reduce fuel costs. Market participants continue to monitor Washington for movement. 🌧️ South American Weather Update Recent rains improved soybean conditions in southern Brazil and brought relief to dry Argentine areas. Additional precipitation could disrupt harvest pace and second-crop corn planting. Brazilian production estimates remain historically large. 🚢 Argentina Strikes & Logistics Labor strikes are temporarily disrupting Argentine grain shipments. While these events frequently generate headlines, they historically produce limited lasting impact on global price trends.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Biofuel Mandates & Soybean Strength The EPA is expected to submit its proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House for final review in the coming days. The Trump administration is working to finalize the delayed mandates by the end of March. Earlier proposals pointed to a sizable increase in total biofuel volumes and a sharp jump in the biomass-based diesel target. While the agency is now considering a slightly revised range for biomass-based diesel, the numbers still imply substantially stronger demand compared to prior years. Both old and new crop soybean futures pushed to multi-month highs overnight. Biofuel optimism — combined with ongoing Chinese demand optimism — continues to support prices despite the advancing Brazilian harvest. 🌽 Corn Market Pressure Corn futures moved lower Tuesday, pressured by improving crop conditions in Argentina following recent rainfall. Weather developments in South America remain a key driver for global feed grain markets. 🌾 Wheat Faces Global Headwinds Chicago wheat futures also weakened. Pressure stemmed from an increased Russian crop outlook and news that India will allow limited wheat exports. Seasonal demand softness tied to the Lunar New Year added additional weight to the market. 🚢 Port of Los Angeles & Soybean Flows U.S. soybean shipments to China through the Port of Los Angeles remain extremely light. Flows through the port fell sharply last year and showed little recovery late in the year. The Port of LA typically handles only a very small share of total U.S. soybean exports. The Gulf continues to dominate shipment volumes, followed by the Pacific Northwest. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced on the world market, influencing global trade flows. 📦 Export Inspections Update U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations for the second straight week, while soybean inspections remained strong and near the upper end of forecasts. China accounted for a significant portion of weekly soybean movement. Seasonal export patterns remain important to monitor. 🛢️ NOPA Crush & Soybean Oil Stocks NOPA reported a record January soybean crush for the month. Processing margins and domestic demand continue to drive historically large crush volumes. Soybean oil stocks increased sharply and now sit at their highest level in quite some time—an important factor for biofuel and vegetable oil markets moving forward.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Long-Term Projections (Out to 2035) USDA released its annual baseline projections, and the acreage outlook immediately caught traders’ attention. The agency pegged 2026 corn acres at 95 million, sharply lower year-over-year, while soybean acres were projected at 85 million, implying a notable shift toward beans. Also raising eyebrows: USDA does not project an average farm price for corn above the mid-$4 range at any point through 2035. These projections assume “normal” conditions and are intended for planning and budgeting, but they often influence long-term sentiment. 🚜 The Future of US Farms & Ranches A major Wall Street Journal feature highlighted a growing structural issue in American agriculture: succession. A large share of farms reportedly have no clear next-generation operator, while the producer population continues to age. Consolidation trends remain strong, with more operations being sold or leased to larger entities. Over time, this could accelerate the shift toward landlord-tenant and contract production models, reshaping rural communities and land markets. 📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders Money managers were active buyers again. Funds added to net long positions in both corn and soybeans, with soybean length expanding to its largest level in weeks. Wheat, meanwhile, saw modest selling pressure. Changes in speculative positioning can heavily influence short-term price behavior and volatility. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop & Planting Progress Brazil’s soybean harvest remains slower than last year amid persistent rainfall delays. Safrinha corn planting is also trailing the prior pace. Weather-related slowdowns at this time of year often feed into global supply expectations and can influence export competition dynamics. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade & Soybean Demand Signals Diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials continues ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meetings later this spring. Reports of a potential extension of the trade truce have supported optimism regarding Chinese demand for US soybeans. Markets remain sensitive to any indications of purchase targets, policy shifts, or rhetoric changes. 🔥 Energy Markets – Natural Gas Pullback Natural gas prices have eased following a warmer weather outlook after January’s weather-driven rally. Storage deficits persist, however, providing underlying support. Energy markets can indirectly influence fertilizer, input costs, and broader commodity sentiment.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean Market Rally Soybeans moved sharply higher following a South China Morning Post report hinting that the US–China trade truce could be extended when Trump and Xi meet in April. President Trump recently suggested China may boost US soybean purchases to 20mmt, but skepticism remains as Brazilian beans continue to dominate global offers at a discount. 🌽 Export Sales Breakdown Corn export sales were a clear bright spot, easily beating expectations with Japan leading the charge. Soybean sales, however, slipped to a marketing-year low despite China showing up as the largest buyer. Wheat sales posted modest improvement. What does this mixed demand picture mean going forward? 🌎 South America Weather & Production Argentina’s crops are still in a weather-critical window, with dryness raising concern about yield potential. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to stack record production, with Conab raising its soybean estimate again. Harvest is advancing — and global supply pressure is building. 🥩 Beef Industry Developments Cargill is closing its Milwaukee processing facility, adding to the growing list of plant slowdowns and shutdowns. With the US cattle herd near historic lows, the livestock sector faces tightening dynamics that could reshape margins and price behavior. ☀️ Drought Monitor Update Large portions of the Corn Belt saw limited precipitation, while drought conditions worsened in parts of Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas. We review what this means as the growing season approaches. 🚢 Flash Sale to Egypt USDA reported new soybean business to Egypt. How significant is this sale in the broader demand landscape?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌏 Global Market Developments Chinese media hinted that the U.S.–China trade truce may be extended, while officials confirmed discussions around a potential presidential visit. Optimism surrounding trade stability helped support soybean prices overnight, with futures probing fresh multi-month highs. 🚢 Demand & Trade Flows China’s appetite for U.S. sorghum continues to generate buzz. Reports suggest strong buying interest tied to tight domestic feed supplies and lingering quality issues in China’s corn crop. Notably, China has still shown little interest in U.S. corn, keeping alternative grains in focus. ⛽ Biofuels & Energy Markets Marine fuel demand is gaining attention as a potential growth engine for biofuels. With global shipping facing mounting emissions pressure, renewable diesel and ethanol are increasingly part of the debate. Industry participants continue to question how easily existing engines could adapt. 🏛 Policy & Regulatory Watch Corn grower groups are pressing the Department of Justice for clarity on its fertilizer industry investigation. Producers argue that input costs and market concentration remain critical issues ahead of the next planting season. 📦 Supply, Production & Margins Ethanol production rebounded last week while margins improved across key regions. Stocks also moved higher, reflecting shifting operating conditions and steady blending demand. 🌽 Export Activity USDA announced another flash sale of corn to unknown destinations, reinforcing the strong pace of export commitments and ongoing demand beneath the market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌎 Soybeans Soybean futures advanced on Tuesday, with the most heavily traded Mar26 contract gaining nearly 12 cents to settle near $11.23 per bushel. Strength was tied largely to continued optimism surrounding Chinese demand after last week’s signals that China may boost this season’s US soybean purchase target. The rally came despite USDA leaving its US soybean export, crush, and ending stocks projections unchanged. Meanwhile, USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production outlook to 180 mmt. 🌽 Corn USDA reduced its outlook for US corn ending stocks, primarily reflecting stronger export expectations. The adjustment provided modest underlying support to the corn market. 🌾 Wheat Wheat balance sheets saw minimal changes, with ending stocks estimates largely steady. 🏛️ US–China Developments US Treasury staff visited China last week to reinforce communication between Washington and Beijing. Discussions centered on preparations for a future meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. While no official date or location has been announced, the meeting is expected in the coming weeks. President Trump also recently described a productive phone call with President Xi Jinping, during which China again referenced the possibility of larger US soybean purchases. 🏗️ US Grain Storage Capacity The University of Illinois highlighted a growing structural concern within US grain markets. After nearly two decades of steady growth, US grain storage capacity has largely stopped expanding. At the same time, crop production continues to trend higher, tightening the margin between production and available storage. Elevated construction costs, higher interest rates, and long-term production uncertainty appear to be limiting investment. If this dynamic persists, the industry may face greater basis volatility and logistical bottlenecks. 🇧🇷 Brazil Inflation & Interest Rates Brazilian inflation moved modestly higher in January, with consumer prices rising annually and remaining above the central bank’s target. Despite inflation pressures, policymakers continue to signal that rate cuts may begin in March. Markets remain divided on the pace of easing. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate remains historically high, helping shape currency flows and global competitiveness. 🐄 Brazil Beef & Feedlot Expansion Brazil’s cattle feeding sector continued its rapid expansion. Feedlot placements rose sharply last year, reflecting an ongoing shift toward more grain-intensive production systems. Brazil has strengthened its position in global beef markets, remaining the world’s largest exporter with China as its dominant customer. Shipments to the US also increased significantly amid tight domestic cattle supplies.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Grain Markets China returned to the U.S. market on Monday with a flash sale of 264,000 mt (10 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. Despite the headline, soybean futures ended lower, with the Mar ’26 contract down nearly 5 cents to settle near $11.11. Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 10.15 mmt (accumulated export sales plus Monday’s flash sale). Roughly half of the 3.1 mmt sold to unknown destinations will likely be tagged to China, pushing total sales to ~11.7 mmt, very close to the White House’s 12 mmt target. President Trump’s recent comments suggest China could ultimately push current marketing-year purchases toward 20 mmt. 🚢 Export Inspections Corn: 1.3 mmt (51 mil bu) ⬆️ 14% vs prior week | ⬇️ 4.2% vs last year Soybeans: 1.1 mmt (42 mil bu) ⬇️ 14% vs prior week | ⬆️ 3.5% vs last year China accounted for ~66% of total inspections. Soybean shipments to China included 3 PNW cargoes and 9 Gulf cargoes.  Wheat: 580,130 mt (21 mil bu) ⬆️ 76% vs prior week | ⬆️ 1.7% vs last year 📊 USDA Preview The USDA will release its Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00am CST. Expectations: U.S. corn ending stocks: unchanged U.S. soybean ending stocks: slightly lower U.S. wheat ending stocks: modestly lower World stocks: mostly unchanged Brazil corn & soybean production: likely revised higher 🛢️ Soybean Oil & Crush Soybean oil rallied to its highest level in over six months following news that the U.S. and India reached a trade agreement that would reduce or eliminate duties on several U.S. ag products, including soybean oil. India is the world’s largest edible oil importer, buying roughly 16 mmt annually. Prices could strengthen further once the agreement is finalized, though a record Brazilian soybean crop and rapidly advancing harvest may limit upside.  🚜 Farm Economy Farm bankruptcies rose sharply in 2025, climbing 46% year over year to 315 filings, marking the second straight year of increases. The Midwest and Southeast led the way, with Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska posting the highest totals. Between 2017 and 2024, roughly 160,000 U.S. farm operations exited the industry. With losses expected to persist across most crop sectors, bankruptcies and farm exits are likely to increase again in 2026.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🥩 Cattle & Beef President Trump signed an executive order allowing up to 100,000 metric tons of Argentine beef to enter the U.S. this year under a lower tariff rate. The goal is to reduce retail beef prices. • Imports will consist only of lean beef trimmings, used primarily in ground beef • A similar move last fall triggered sharp selloffs in cattle futures • Beef prices did not fall meaningfully last time • Markets will be watching closely to see if funds react again 🌱 Soybeans Soybeans rallied for a third straight session on Friday. • The Mar26 contract settled near $11.15, the highest since early December • The rally followed Trump’s comments suggesting China may boost U.S. purchases to 20mmt • Traders remain skeptical China will follow through • Brazil’s record crop continues to hang over the market 🌽 Corn & 🌾 Wheat Corn and wheat futures ended the session lower. • No fresh bullish catalysts • Focus remains on demand, fund positioning, and policy developments 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Geopolitics Trump’s planned April visit to China may be at risk. • The U.S. is preparing a potential $20B arms sale to Taiwan • This follows an $11B package approved in December • China has criticized the move, warning it could strain relations • Trade talks could become more complicated if tensions escalate 🇮🇳 India Trade India is considering limited ag-market access for U.S. products. • Possible tariff reductions on soybean oil and DDGS • India continues to block imports of GM food crops like soybeans and dairy • Indian farmers are pushing back, citing risks to small producers 🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Crop Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving fast. • ~17% harvested vs ~10% this time last year • Yields remain strong across most regions • StoneX projects a record 181.6mmt crop • Argentina remains dry but rain is forecast over the next 10 days 📊 CFTC & Funds The latest CFTC report showed modest fund buying, but it’s already outdated. • Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat during the reporting window • Post-report price action suggests positioning has shifted significantly • Private estimates now show large specs heavily long soybeans ⛽ Ethanol & E15 The push for year-round E15 sales continues. • E15 accounts for ~30% of Iowa fuel sales • Usage is growing roughly 45% annually • Draft legislation expected by mid-February • Political divisions could slow progress

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans Lead the Rally Soybean futures pushed higher again Thursday, building on momentum from President Trump’s comments suggesting China could increase U.S. soybean purchases this season. While some traders are buying into the optimism, others remain skeptical that verbal commitments will turn into real demand—especially during Brazil’s peak export window. Corn and wheat futures also finished the session higher. 💰 USDA: Farm Profits Jump on Government Payments USDA’s Economic Research Service says farm income rebounded last year, largely due to a sharp increase in direct government payments. Looking ahead, USDA expects farm income to level off somewhat, with payments remaining elevated relative to recent years. ⚖️ Fertilizer Prices Under DOJ Scrutiny The Iowa Corn Growers Association is pressing the Department of Justice for updates on its investigation into fertilizer pricing. The group says high input costs are adding to financial stress across farm country and wants clarity on whether consolidation in the fertilizer industry is limiting competition. 🚢 Export Sales Remain Soft Weekly export sales were underwhelming across the board. Corn sales declined again, soybean sales hit a marketing-year low, and wheat sales came in near the bottom of expectations. While China was the top soybean buyer for the week, overall demand remains sluggish. 🌧️ Drought Still a Concern Cold temperatures limited drought improvement despite some recent precipitation. Frozen soils and low Mississippi River levels continue to restrict barge traffic, while drought conditions across the High Plains remain largely unchanged.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China & US Soybeans China is considering boosting US soybean purchases. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Donald Trump said China may raise its current-season buying target from 12 mmt to 20 mmt, sparking a sharp rally in soybean futures. That said, it’s far from certain those additional purchases actually happen. After recently fulfilling its initial commitment, China has shifted back to cheaper South American supplies. Brazil is on track for a record soybean crop, keeping Brazilian prices attractive during the heart of their export window. China has so far purchased 9.65 mmt of US soybeans for this marketing year, with a large share still unshipped. Trump’s comments imply potential additional buying before the August 31 marketing-year end — but the big question remains: ➡️ Will China really buy and ship US soybeans during peak Brazilian export season? ➡️ Are we headed toward a rare contra-seasonal export program tied to trade tensions? Price action suggests optimism — even as many traders and analysts remain deeply pessimistic.  🚜 Farm Crisis Concerns Grow Former US farm leaders and lawmakers are sounding the alarm on the worsening farm economy. In a letter to the Trump administration, former US Department of Agriculture officials and industry leaders warned of a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture.” They cited rising input costs and abundant global grain supplies that have pushed prices low enough for farmers to lose money three years in a row. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that average farm operating loan sizes jumped sharply last year. While $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments are set to go out soon, most agree the aid will only cover a fraction of producer losses. 🌽 Ethanol Production Slumps US ethanol production fell hard last week, driven by plant slowdowns tied to high natural gas prices, limited availability, and severe winter weather. Output dropped well below the prior week and last year’s levels. Ethanol stocks declined, while margins actually improved across much of the Corn Belt. According to Reuters data, margins range from modestly negative to modestly positive when factoring in corn, DDGs, and inputs.  🐄 Texas Braces for Screwworm Threat Texas ranchers are preparing for a potential return of New World screwworm. Since late December, 20 cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas, Mexico — just south of the Texas border. The threat prompted Greg Abbott to issue a disaster declaration to unlock state resources. Screwworm could cost Texas cattle producers hundreds of millions and hit the broader state economy even harder. The USDA plans to release glow-in-the-dark sterile flies in northern Mexico and south Texas, but full eradication would take years. Meanwhile, the continued ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports is adding further support to cattle prices.  🌾 Corn Flash Sale USDA also reported a flash sale of corn Wednesday. Exporters sold 130,480 mt to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Total accumulated corn sales are running well ahead of last year’s pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit — New Guidance The US Treasury Department and IRS released long-awaited proposed guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit this week. Biofuel and agricultural groups largely welcomed the rules, citing improved clarity after years of delays. Key takeaways from the proposal: Fuels produced after December 31, 2025, must use feedstocks grown exclusively in the US, Mexico, or Canada The 45Z credit is extended through 2029 The special SAF credit rate is eliminated for fuel produced after January 1, 2026 The indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty is removed A 60-day public comment period is now open, with a public hearing scheduled for May 28 🧾 45Z — Important Context & Clarifications 45Z was enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but implementation has been repeatedly delayed It is a clean fuel production credit, claimed by biofuel producers (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc.) This is not 45Q, which applies to carbon capture and sequestration In most cases, plants can claim either 45Z or 45Q—not both Non-SAF fuels can receive up to $1.00 per gallon Only a limited number of plants claimed 45Z in 2025 Plants are now preparing for 2026 production, though rules remain proposed There is no direct payment to farmers—plants will decide how low-CI premiums are shared Treasury plans to release a Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) to address farming practices 🚜 US Farmer Sentiment Slides Farmer sentiment dropped sharply in January. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed: A steep decline in current conditions and future expectations Nearly 60% of farmers expect bad financial times over the next year Long-term pessimism rose meaningfully Concerns about US agricultural exports increased This highlights the difficult backdrop facing producers even as policy clarity improves. 🇧🇷 Brazil Ethanol Production Outlook Brazilian ethanol production is expected to rise this year as- Ethanol prices improve Sugar prices weaken New corn ethanol plants come online A large sugarcane crop boosts output StoneX projects strong growth, with corn ethanol production jumping sharply. This could push Brazil toward higher ethanol exports, and corn usage for ethanol may reach a record share of production. 🇨🇳 China’s “No. 1 Document” & Food Security China unveiled its annual rural policy blueprint aimed at boosting food self-sufficiency. The plan emphasizes: Higher grain and oilseed production Diversified agricultural imports Reduced reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and Canada Expanded sourcing from South America and the Global South New quotas on beef imports and tariffs on EU dairy Increased investment in agricultural innovation ₿ Bitcoin Update Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, pressured by: Liquidations of leveraged positions Weak sentiment in crypto derivatives Broader financial market volatility Despite some institutional interest, everyday investor participation has slowed, leaving Bitcoin under continued pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🇮🇳 US–India Trade Deal The Trump administration announced a trade agreement with India that reduces tariffs on Indian imports into the US from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to remove tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and halt purchases of Russian oil. India also committed to purchasing more than $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. However, key details remain unclear, including when the deal takes effect and which specific products India will buy. 🌽 Grain Markets Grain futures extended losses on Monday. The March 2026 corn contract fell roughly 3 cents to near $4.26 per bushel, while March 2026 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to around $10.60 per bushel. Wheat futures also ended lower, pressured by concerns about frigid temperatures across the US Plains and the Black Sea region. 🚢 Export Inspections US corn inspections declined last week but remain strong overall. The USDA reported inspections of 1.1 million metric tons for the week ending January 29, down 27% from the prior week and nearly 10% below the same week last year. Soybean inspections came in near the high end of expectations at 1.3 million metric tons. That figure was slightly lower week-over-week but well above last year’s pace, with China accounting for roughly 56% of total shipments. Wheat inspections totaled 326,828 metric tons, near the top of expectations. Shipments were lower versus the previous week but significantly higher than the same week last year.  🥩 Tyson Foods Tyson Foods reported another difficult quarter for its beef segment, posting an adjusted operating loss of $143 million. Tight cattle supplies continue to push costs higher, and Tyson expects those conditions to persist through this year and into 2027. In contrast, Tyson’s chicken segment posted year-over-year sales growth, marking a fifth straight quarter of volume gains. The company expects chicken to be the preferred protein this year due to affordability.  🇧🇷 Brazil Soybeans Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to advance steadily. AgRural estimates that 10% of the crop had been harvested as of last Thursday, slightly ahead of last year’s pace. StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 181.6 million metric tons, while Celeres lifted its forecast to 181.3 million.  🚜 Farm Aid Talks Lawmakers continue to push for additional farmer assistance. Michigan Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet said more aid is needed to help farmers cope with high input costs and tariff-related disruptions. She emphasized that federal aid is a temporary fix and that farmers ultimately need more reliable markets and predictable trade policy. McDonald is a co-sponsor of the proposed Farm and Family Relief Act of 2026, which calls for nearly $30 billion in aid. She believes Congress will approve the recently discussed $15 billion package by the end of the month.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG 🌽🌱 Grain Futures Recap Grain futures finished lower on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar. March corn slipped by nearly 3 cents to $4.28 March soybeans dropped 8 cents to $10.64 Wheat futures also declined, with Chicago March wheat down about 4 cents to $5.38 Markets also continue to price in strong Brazilian crop expectations, while traders assessed the impact of severe cold across the US Plains earlier this week and frigid temperatures in Ukraine. 👉 See grain charts below 🥇🥈 Gold & Silver: Historic Volatility Precious metals suffered historic one-day losses on Friday. Gold futures fell sharply Silver posted its worst daily decline since 1980 The selloff followed President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which eased concerns about central bank independence and sent the US dollar sharply higher. Longer term, metals may still find support from geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty, but Friday was a major reset. 👉 See gold, silver, and Dollar Index charts below 🏛️ Federal Reserve Update President Trump officially selected Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May. Warsh has historically been a policy hawk Recently shifted toward supporting lower rates Viewed by markets as more inflation-focused than other rumored picks One analyst summed it up: “Because Warsh has been a policy hawk his entire life, his newfound dovishness looks very suspect.” 👉 See Dollar Index and Bloomberg Commodity Index charts below 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly COT report. For the week ending January 27, funds were net buyers across major ag markets: Corn Soybeans SRW wheat 👉 See Fund Tracker charts below 🚜 Farmer Assistance Update Additional farmer aid remains under discussion in Washington. According to John Boozman, the proposed $15B package was excluded from the current spending bill Aid could still move forward as a standalone bill or disaster relief add-on The $11B Farmer Bridge Assistance program is still scheduled to be distributed by February 28 🐄 Cattle Inventory: Historically Tight The USDA cattle inventory report confirmed the smallest US herd since 1951. Total herd: 86.2 million head Beef cow numbers declined again Slight uptick in replacement heifers, but not enough to signal real expansion Bottom line: structurally bullish for the cattle market with no clear signs of herd rebuilding.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🥈 Precious Metals Volatility Silver futures were slammed this morning, with the nearby March contract down sharply in early trade. Gold also moved lower. Some traders are pointing to speculation around an imminent Trump pick for the next Fed Chair as a possible catalyst. Regardless of the reason, the size and speed of the move has grabbed everyone’s attention. 🎰 Prediction Markets & CME’s Next Move The CFTC says it plans to update prediction-market rules, aiming to provide more regulatory clarity while supporting “lawful innovation.” Chairman Michael Selig confirmed the agency will withdraw a prior proposal that would have banned sports- and political-related contracts. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi continue to grow rapidly, and CME is now partnering with FanDuel in the prediction-market space. With CME already planning 24/7 crypto derivatives trading, some believe this is a stepping stone toward round-the-clock trading in traditional commodity markets—an effort to avoid losing market share to online betting platforms. 🎲 ❄️ Ukraine Cold Threat & Wheat Support Extremely cold temperatures are forecast across much of Ukraine early next week, with readings potentially plunging well below zero. A large share of the country’s winter wheat crop currently lacks protective snow cover, raising winterkill concerns. These risks helped support wheat futures as traders also assessed lingering impacts from last week’s U.S. winter storm. 🌱 Soybeans Ease on Brazil Supply Soybean futures softened as Brazil’s harvest ramps up and expectations build for a record-large crop. After completing initial U.S. purchases, China is expected to shift more demand toward Brazilian supplies. A weak U.S. dollar, however, continues to provide underlying support by improving export competitiveness. 🚢 Weekly Export Sales U.S. corn export sales slowed from last week’s near-record pace, while soybean sales also declined. Wheat sales came in near the upper end of expectations. Japan was the top buyer for corn and wheat, while China led soybean purchases. 🛢️ Oil Rallies on Middle East Risk Crude oil prices surged amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions. Markets are reacting to fears of supply disruptions, particularly the risk of instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint. 🌧️ US Drought Update USDA’s latest drought monitor showed limited improvement across much of the Corn Belt due to frozen ground conditions, though some areas did see relief. Drought conditions worsened in parts of the High Plains.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Grain futures finished higher Wednesday as a weaker US dollar, biofuel headlines, and weather concerns provided support across ag and macro markets. Here’s what moved markets today 👇 🌽 Grain Markets Corn and soybeans ended the session modestly higher, supported by a sharply weaker US dollar, which improves US export competitiveness. President Trump said Congress is close to approving year-round E15, and that new biofuel guidelines are nearing completion—adding support to corn demand expectations. Wheat also closed higher as traders continue to assess potential crop impacts from the recent winter storm. In my view, developing dryness and a hot/dry forecast in Argentina likely played a role in row crop strength as well. See the map from our friends at CropProphet below. 🌾 Ethanol Update US ethanol production declined modestly last week, though output remains higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks also fell week over week and year over year. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins weakened across the Corn Belt and are currently negative to breakeven, reflecting softer profitability. Margins improved slightly following Monday’s corn selloff. 🐄 Livestock & Animal Health The NCBA warned that it is likely only a matter of time before New World screwworm reaches the US. NCBA President Buck Wehrbein said the pest is more likely to enter via wildlife than cattle imports and emphasized that the US successfully eradicated screwworm in the 1960s. Recent rumors of screwworm already reaching the US triggered sharp selling in live and feeder cattle futures last week. 🥇 Precious Metals & Margins CME Group raised margin requirements on precious metal futures following the historic rally in gold and silver. Higher margins mean traders will need more capital to hold positions, potentially limiting participation by smaller traders. Silver and gold both hit record highs before settling lower on the day. For perspective: silver at ~$117/oz is roughly equivalent to trading $117 corn or soybeans, with a contract value near $585,000. 🏦 Federal Reserve The Fed held interest rates steady, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut. Inflation remains above target, while labor markets show signs of stabilization. Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, after which President Trump will appoint a new Fed chair. Futures markets are pricing in limited rate cuts this year and none in 2027. 👉 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re watching in grains, livestock, or macro. Staying informed matters—especially in markets like these.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back to the channel! In today’s update, we cover Trump’s comments on year-round E15, growing weakness in the U.S. dollar, 2026 acreage debates, heat stress in Argentina, fresh USDA flash sales, and China’s latest soybean buying behavior. ⛽🇺🇸 E15, Trump & The Fed President Trump visited Iowa and said Congress is very close to approving year-round E15 sales Comments come after the White House failed to include E15 language in the current funding bill.  Trump declared the U.S. is entering a “golden age.” He said a new Fed Chair announcement is coming soon and predicted significantly lower interest rates.  💵📉 U.S. Dollar Breakdown The dollar hit its weakest level in nearly four years.  Pressure is coming from policy uncertainty, fiscal risks, and political polarization.  Euro, yen, and Swiss franc are at multi-year highs.  Emerging-market currencies are trading at record levels.  Investors are paying record premiums to hedge against further dollar weakness.  🌽🌱 2026 Acreage Debate S&P Global estimates corn acreage at 95 million and soybeans at 84.5 million.  Higher corn input costs and crop rotation favor soybean.  China’s renewed soybean purchases add support to bean acres.  NCGA projects an $180/acre loss for corn.  Pro Farmer notes fertilizer already applied and historical trends could keep corn acres elevated.  Crop insurance guarantees in February will be key.  🔥🇦🇷 Argentina Weather Stress Temps nearing 104°F across major growing regions.  Limited rain until February raises yield risks.  USDA estimates: 53 mmt corn, 48.5 mmt soybeans.  Planting nearly complete, but pasture conditions are deteriorating.  Meal markets remain quiet; bean oil strong amid biofuel sentiment.  🚢📊 USDA Flash Sales 110,000 mt of corn sold to unknown destinations (2025/26) 306,000 mt of sorghum sold to unknown destinations (2025/26) First U.S. sorghum flash sale since August 2024.  🇨🇳🌎 China Soybean Buying China booked at least 25 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for Mar–Apr shipment.  Brazil holds a strong price advantage over U.S. beans.  China has now fulfilled its ~12 mmt U.S. purchase commitment.  Recent U.S. buying appears obligation-driven, not structural.  With large South American crops expected, China likely avoids U.S. beans until new crop this fall. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🧪 Fertilizer Market & USDA Action The USDA is taking a closer look at potential collusion in the fertilizer industry. Last week, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden accused fertilizer giants Nutrien and Mosaic of working to limit supply and keep prices elevated. The two companies accounted for more than 90% of North American phosphate fertilizer and potash production last year. A proposed new potash mine in Saskatchewan could weaken their market control and add supply to the U.S. market as early as next year. USDA officials say they are closely monitoring fertilizer markets and could take action to boost competition if needed. Vaden also took aim at farm equipment manufacturers, backing the administration’s push for right-to-repair protections for farmers. 🌽 Biofuels Policy & 45Z Tax Credit Clean Fuels Alliance America is urging the Trump administration to release the proposed 45Z tax credit rules. The request comes after the White House completed its review of the rule. According to the biofuels group, clearer guidance is needed to reduce uncertainty and support biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel production. They warned that continued delays could jeopardize investments, production, and rural jobs, while final rules could boost commodity demand and rural economic activity. President Trump is scheduled to speak today in Clive, Iowa, where energy and economic issues are expected to be front and center. While there’s some chatter about a possible biofuel announcement, nothing is confirmed. 🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybean Markets Wheat futures moved lower on Monday. The CBOT March contract fell to around $5.23 after earlier touching the highest level since mid-December. Cold weather in the High Plains raised concerns over crop damage, but snowfall helped insulate much of the wheat belt. Some damage was reported in parts of Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and northwestern Kansas. 🚢 Export Inspections U.S. corn shipments were strong last week. USDA reported 1.5 million metric tons of corn inspected for export, higher than both the previous week and last year. Soybean inspections totaled 1.3 million metric tons, slightly lower week-to-week but sharply higher year-over-year, with China accounting for the majority of shipments. Wheat inspections were weaker, trailing both last week and last year. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update AgRural raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop again, now calling for a record harvest. Corn production estimates were also nudged higher. Soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting are both running ahead of last year’s pace, while first-crop corn harvest is slightly behind. Rainfall has been mostly average, though southern areas remain somewhat dry. Based on current estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop would be substantially larger than the U.S. crop.  🔥 Natural Gas & Winter Storm Impact Natural gas prices surged to their highest level in years as Winter Storm Fern swept across the U.S., driving up heating demand. The storm knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of customers and disrupted roughly 10% of U.S. natural gas production. In response, the Department of Energy issued emergency orders aimed at stabilizing power grids and reducing blackout risks in New England and Texas.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ Government Shutdown Risk The risk of a partial government shutdown is rising as the Senate prepares to vote later this week on a House-passed $1.2 trillion funding package. Following another fatal shooting involving federal immigration agents in Minnesota, Democratic lawmakers are threatening to oppose the bill due to DHS and ICE funding concerns. Democrats argue the package lacks reforms to rein in ICE. While funding for many other agencies is included, there may still be enough Democratic support to avoid a shutdown. The last shutdown lasted 43 days and delayed key USDA and CFTC reports. Polymarket odds of a shutdown jumped sharply over the weekend. There is growing concern that previously approved FBA payments, currently slated for late February, could be delayed if a shutdown occurs. ❄️ Winter Storm & Cold Impacts This weekend’s winter storm delivered widespread snow and extreme cold across the Plains. Parts of HRW wheat country in the Southern Plains received beneficial snowfall, reducing winterkill risk. However, below-zero temperatures combined with snow created severe cold stress for livestock, limiting weight gains and increasing risks for producers in calving season. Wind chills in the Northern Plains plunged to extreme levels, while portions of Texas and Oklahoma face record lows with freezing temperatures expected to persist. Single-digit temperatures may linger another day or two in HRW wheat areas, while SRW wheat country in the Midwest remains locked in frigid conditions this week. 🌽 Grain Markets Corn futures advanced on Friday, led by strong export demand. The most active March contract settled higher, supported by near-record export sales and competitive U.S. prices on the global market. Growing concern over dry conditions in parts of South America has added uncertainty around crop potential. Soybean and wheat futures also posted gains. ⛽ E15 Left Out (Again) Farm groups and ethanol advocates are pushing back after Congress once again omitted year-round E15 sales from the funding package. Instead, lawmakers plan to form an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to study the issue. 🚢 Export Sales U.S. export sales were impressive last week: Corn sales set a marketing-year high, far exceeding expectations, with unknown destinations as the top buyer.  Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year high, with China leading purchases.  Wheat sales surpassed expectations, with unknown destinations again the largest buyer.  Overall, export demand remains a major source of support for the grain markets. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning In the latest Commitment of Traders report, large money managers were net sellers across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The net short position in corn is now the largest since late October, reflecting continued bearish positioning despite recent market strength. 🐄 Cattle on Feed Friday’s Cattle on Feed report came in largely neutral. Cattle on feed were below last year but slightly above expectations. Placements and marketings were both near or above pre-report estimates. Notably, heifers made up a large share of cattle on feed, signaling that many are still being fed rather than retained for herd rebuilding—an important long-term signal for the cattle market.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm Aid & Policy Update Additional farm aid was not included in the current government funding package, catching many lawmakers and farm groups off guard. Senate Republicans had pushed just last week to add up to $15B in aid, but that language was left out. With aid excluded for now, supporters say relief may need to come via supplemental appropriations or future legislation. Congress must pass the funding package by January 30 to avoid another government shutdown. It was also reported yesterday that nationwide E15 language was again dropped, though GOP leaders are discussing a possible supplemental bill that could allow year-round E15 sales. Major Winter Storm Risk A major winter storm is forecast to impact the Southern US this weekend. While the exact track remains uncertain, over 70 million people from Dallas to Little Rock to Nashville are currently under a winter storm watch. Snow, ice, dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are possible.  Snow cover remains limited across key HRW wheat areas in the Southern Plains. Temperatures in western Kansas and surrounding regions could fall into the single digits, raising the risk of winter kill depending on snow totals and duration. Livestock stress is also a concern. US–China Trade Watch US and Chinese officials may soon hold another round of trade talks ahead of the planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. According to the US Trade Representative, negotiations would focus on common goods and services, avoiding sensitive areas like tech and national security. China has already fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are now looking ahead to China’s pledge to buy 25 mmt annually through 2028, though Trump continues to push for larger volumes. Europe, Greenland & Tariffs President Trump announced he will refrain from imposing new tariffs on European countries, following meetings at the World Economic Forum. He stated that a framework for a future deal involving Greenland has been reached, marking a major shift from prior tariff threats. While details remain limited, Denmark continues to oppose any US takeover. Grain Market Recap Soybean futures rebounded Wednesday, with the most-active Mar26 contract gaining roughly 12 cents, settling near $10.65. Support came from a slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest due to rainfall in northern regions, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent pointing to ongoing Chinese demand for US soybeans. Global Protein Trade China has reopened its market to Canadian beef imports, ending a ban that had been in place since 2021. Initial shipments are expected to be small, but the move is a positive long-term opportunity for Canada’s cattle industry. Meanwhile, US beef exports to China have declined sharply over the past year amid ongoing trade tensions. India & Wheat Exports India has approved the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and related products. Wheat exports had been restricted since May 2022, but a strong monsoon is expected to boost domestic supplies. India is typically self-sufficient in wheat and is sometimes a net exporter. Its re-entry into the export market is considered a bearish factor for global wheat prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China & U.S. Soybeans China has reportedly completed its ~12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Shipments are expected to move by May Focus now shifts to China’s 25 mmt annual soybean pledge over the next three years Despite that pledge, South American soybeans remain more competitive, likely capping U.S. demand Ongoing economic strain and a smaller hog herd could further weigh on Chinese soybean usage 📌 Important context: USDA has only confirmed 8.1 mmt of soybean sales to China so far Roughly half of recent “Unknown” sales likely end up in China, plus some unreported intra-house business Even at 12 mmt, purchases are well below the ~22.5 mmt China bought last marketing year That’s why USDA cut its U.S. soybean export forecast last week 📉 Grain Markets Soybeans: Mar ’26 contract slipped ~5¢, settling near $10.53 Pressure came from: Rising geopolitical tensions over Greenland Expectations for a record Brazilian soybean crop Corn: Mar ’26 futures eased ~1¢ to $4.24 🚜 Farm Economy Reality Check Farmers face tight margins after years of weak prices and rising costs New York farmer Ron Robbins used detailed field-level data to: Fallow unprofitable acres Improve marginal land Shift some acres from soybeans to corn His takeaway: the downturn may be the new normal—reassessment is no longer optional 🚢 Weekly Export Shipments (USDA) Corn: Strong print, beating expectations Soybeans: Near top end of estimates; China took 46% of the week’s volume Wheat: Also near the high end of expectations YTD snapshot: Soybean shipments: well below last year Corn shipments: well ahead of last year China-bound soybean cargoes shipped via both PNW and Gulf 🌱 Flash Sale USDA confirmed a soybean meal sale to the Philippines for next marketing year 🌍 Macro & Markets Japan’s bond market saw sharp turmoil after fiscal concerns and a weak auction Long-dated yields spiked, spilling into global credit markets S&P 500 logged its largest one-day drop since October A weaker dollar failed to spark meaningful buying in ag ₿ Bitcoin Watch Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has gone all-in again: Massive recent Bitcoin purchases Now the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally Strategy uses Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve, funded largely through debt issuance CEO Michael Saylor remains controversial due to the aggressive approach

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚜 Farm Aid & Government Funding Senate Republicans are pushing for an additional farm aid package, potentially totaling up to $15 billion (not yet confirmed). The proposal includes: Additional bridge payments Support for specialty crop producers Higher farm ownership and operating loan limits Aid for farmers who suffered losses above the national average or were forced to sell at depressed prices Lawmakers plan to attach the measure to upcoming government funding legislation Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments remain scheduled for February 28 A possible government shutdown on January 30 could: Delay FBA payments Delay any new farm aid package The House and Senate have passed several spending bills, but key issues remain unresolved 🌍 Global Trade & Geopolitics President Trump announced new tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland 10% tariffs begin February 1 Increase to 25% on June 1 Tariffs remain until the US is able to purchase Greenland The EU is weighing retaliatory trade measures Trump also said he would consider using force if negotiations fail Market reaction: S&P 500 futures down 1.8% European and UK equities sharply lower US dollar weaker against major currencies 🇨🇦🇨🇳 Canada–China Trade Deal China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1 Tariffs also reduced on: Lobsters Crabs Peas Canada will impose a 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs China has reportedly purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since October Canada continues diversifying trade away from the US 🌱 South American Crop Update Brazil’s soybean harvest is ahead of schedule 2% harvested as of last Thursday vs. 1.7% at the same time last year Rainfall has been near normal overall, with slightly drier conditions in southern areas World Weather notes a La Niña-style dry bias, but says it’s unlikely to threaten production 📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC) Large speculators were heavy sellers last week: Corn: Net sellers of 78k contracts Net short now 91k (largest since late October) Soybeans: Net sellers of 46k contracts Net short 20k (largest since mid-October) Wheat: Net buyers of 1k SRW contracts 🚢 Export Activity USDA reported multiple corn flash sales: 298k mt to unknown destinations 120k mt to Japan Both sales are for the 2025/26 marketing year Accumulated corn sales are now 29% higher than last year 🐄 Cattle Market Shock Live and feeder cattle futures plunged Friday on screwworm concerns Texas officials report 14 active cases within 200 miles of the US border The pest is expected to eventually reach the US Market reaction: Live cattle down as much as $4.45 Feeder cattle down as much as $8.10

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Farm Economy Under Pressure Headlines this week focused squarely on the deteriorating US farm economy. The Wall Street Journal published an article detailing the challenges facing US soybean farmers, including high input costs, weak commodity prices, rising competition from Brazil, and sluggish export demand. The piece also referenced USDA’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, noting that while helpful in the short term, it does not address deeper structural issues. Reuters published similar coverage, emphasizing tighter bank lending standards, increasing financial stress, and a rise in farm bankruptcies. Together, the articles underscore mounting pressure on farmers and the broader ripple effects across rural America.  Soybean Oil & Biofuels Soybean oil futures surged on Thursday, gaining as much as 3.8% on expectations that the Trump administration will finalize US biofuel-blending quotas by March. Last June, the EPA proposed a sizable increase in biomass-based diesel targets, which would significantly boost soybean oil demand. There is optimism that stronger biofuel demand could help offset weak soybean export performance. NOPA Crush Update The National Oilseed Processors Association released its December crush report, showing US soybean crush at its second-highest level on record. NOPA members processed 224.99 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly above trade expectations. For full-year 2025, crush totaled nearly 2.4 billion bushels—an 8% increase from 2024. End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose to 1.64 billion pounds, the highest level since May 2024, up sharply from both last month and last year, though just below average trade estimates. Brazil Soybean Crop Brazil’s soybean crop is shaping up to be record large. Agroconsult raised its estimate to 182.2 mmt, citing strong field conditions and limited widespread issues. Meanwhile, Conab trimmed its estimate slightly to 176.1 mmt due to marginally lower yield expectations. Even so, the crop remains record large and would exceed last season’s production.  Export Sales US corn export sales impressed last week, with net sales of 1.1 mmt. While down from the prior four-week average, the number was a strong rebound from the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer. Soybean sales exceeded expectations at 2.1 mmt, up sharply week-over-week and well above the recent average. China was the largest buyer. Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations at 156,300 mt, with unknown destinations leading purchases. USDA Flash Sales USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday: Soybeans sold to China and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery Additional soybean sales for 2026/27 delivery Corn sales to Japan and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery Drought Monitor Update USDA’s latest drought data showed mixed but generally improving conditions across parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains. Above-normal precipitation helped reduce drought intensity in portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas, while conditions worsened slightly in southern Missouri. US Areas Experiencing Drought Corn: 28% Soybeans: 34% Winter Wheat: 41% Spring Wheat: 10% Cattle: 34%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Argentina Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop is shaping up to be record large. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate to 62 mmt, well above the prior record of 51.5 mmt set in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects more planted acres than expected. Despite recent hot and dry conditions, crop stress has been limited, and rainfall is forecast for key growing areas. For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn crop at 53 mmt. 📈 Corn & Soybean Futures Corn and soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, bouncing from oversold levels. March corn settled near $4.22 March soybeans closed around $10.43 The gains were largely technical after futures fell to their lowest levels since October earlier this week following Monday’s bearish USDA report. 🔥 US Ethanol Production US ethanol production surged to a new all-time high last week. Output jumped to 1.2 million barrels per day, crushing the prior record set in December. Ethanol stocks also climbed to a record weekly high of 24.47 million barrels. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain solid across the Corn Belt, running 10 to 40 cents positive based on spot corn, DDGs, and input prices. Margins improved following Monday’s sharp sell-off in corn futures. 🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports China imported a record 111.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, topping the prior record set in 2024. Imports rose 6.5% year over year as buyers front-loaded shipments from Brazil and Argentina amid trade war uncertainty. China largely avoided US soybeans during the year due to President Trump’s tariffs, but purchases resumed after the October trade truce. Traders estimate China has already bought nearly 10 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to under the agreement. 🚢 USDA Flash Sales The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday: 136,000 mt of corn sold to South Korea 334,000 mt of soybeans sold to China Both were for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. 🥈 Silver & Gold Hit Records Silver prices exploded to a new record high, surging more than 5% and breaking above $90 per ounce for the first time. The rally was fueled by renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, expectations for additional rate cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions. Silver is now up nearly 30% year-to-date and almost triple where it traded a year ago. Gold also hit record highs, with prices up more than 70% over the past year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Ethanol & E15 Push The Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum. The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes. Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term: Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offs Consumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy it Production capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacity An E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars. 🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCA President Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1. Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below. 🥩 Beef Prices Hit New Records Ground beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%. Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below. 🌱 Soybean Flash Sales USDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday: 168,000 mt to China 152,404 mt to Mexico Both are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. 📊 Inflation Update The December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022. Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below. 🌎 Largest US Landowner The owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres. Other top landowners include: Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acres John Malone: ~2.2 million acres Ted Turner: ~2.0 million acres Jeff Bezos: ~462,000 acres Bill Gates: ~275,000 acres

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Corn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA. The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise. USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record. 🌾 Winter Wheat US winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million. Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California. Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over year Soft red winter wheat: modest increase White winter wheat: sharp decline 🚜 Farm Policy & Aid The American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses. Duvall is urging: Expanded trade opportunities Labor reform Year-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costs Farm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs. 🚢 Exports & Demand US soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total. Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectations Wheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over week USDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn: 204,000 mt to South Korea 310,000 mt to unknown destinations Both for 2025/26 delivery. 🏛️ Macro & Markets Republican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets. Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks) USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report. • Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large • Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly • US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower • Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly • Corn exports are forecast at record highs • Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China • World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged 🇨🇳 China Buys More US Soybeans China purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment. • At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf • The remainder will ship from the PNW • The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin • Several smaller flash sales were also reported last week Despite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship. 🚢 USDA Flash Sale Update USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. • Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year 🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest Begins Brazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal. • 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39% • Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year • Warm, dry weather is expected to persist Both Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning For the week ending January 6: • Funds were net buyers of corn • Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend) • Net sellers of SRW wheat 💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate Cap President Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%. • Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability • Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments • Proposal could take effect as early as January 20 Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Preview USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, alongside the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Analysts are expecting a notable decline in U.S. corn production and yield, while soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly. U.S. ending stocks for corn and wheat are projected to edge lower, while soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. World-ending stocks are forecast to remain mostly unchanged, except for wheat, where a sizable increase is anticipated. 📉 2026 Corn Price Outlook Ample global corn supplies are expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. University of Missouri Extension ag economist Ben Brown expects U.S. corn acreage to fall to 95 million acres this year as farmers respond to tight margins. Even with fewer acres, last year’s record corn crop continues to weigh on prices. Brown sees limited upside unless a major South American weather event hits yields—and even then, any rally is likely to be short-lived. Ethanol demand remains a bright spot, and finalized biofuel regulations could provide additional support. Ultimately, meaningful price improvement will require reduced global production. 🚢 Weekly Export Sales U.S. corn export sales were weak last week. For the week ending January 1, net corn sales hit a marketing-year low at 377,600 mt (15 million bushels), down 49% from the previous week and 76% below the prior four-week average. South Korea was the top buyer. Despite the poor weekly number, accumulated corn sales remain 30% above last year. Net soybean sales totaled 877,900 mt (32 million bushels), down 26% week-over-week and 42% below the four-week average. China accounted for roughly half of total sales. Net wheat sales came in at 118,700 mt (4 million bushels), below expectations for the second straight week. Sales were up 24% from last week but down 55% from the four-week average. The Philippines was the largest buyer. 🐄 Cattle Markets & Screwworm Update New World screwworm cases in Mexico have dropped sharply in recent weeks. Mexico’s ag ministry reports cases are down 57% since mid-December, with 492 active cases concentrated in a handful of states. Construction of a sterile-fly breeding facility in southern Mexico is roughly halfway complete and is expected to begin operations in the first half of this year. Despite improvement, three cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas near the Texas border since late December. The ongoing border closure, in place since May 2025, continues to tighten feeder cattle supplies and push cattle prices to record highs. 🌱 China Soybean Flash Sale USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Thursday. U.S. exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. China has now completed more than 80% of its 12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase agreement. 🌡️ Drought Monitor Update USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt following a warm, dry winter. About 37% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing some level of drought, up from 29% at this time last year. The High Plains also saw temperatures well above normal—some areas running as much as 15°F above average—resulting in the driest start to winter on record in parts of the region.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Grain Markets Soybean futures rallied on Wednesday, with the Mar26 contract jumping nearly 11 cents to settle around $10.67. The move was driven by renewed Chinese demand, including reports that Sinograin purchased multiple U.S. soybean cargoes, plus a confirmed flash sale to China earlier this week. Corn and wheat futures also closed higher. 🥩 New U.S. Dietary Guidelines Updated U.S. dietary guidelines place a stronger emphasis on protein intake and full-fat dairy, while discouraging ultra-processed foods, added sugars, and refined carbs. The new guidance calls for protein at every meal and higher daily intake levels than previously recommended. Unlike past guidelines, there’s less focus on plant-based proteins or whole grains. The American Heart Association pushed back, warning of potential cardiovascular risks tied to higher consumption of red meat, salt, and full-fat dairy. 🌽 Ethanol Update U.S. ethanol production declined modestly last week, while ethanol stocks increased. Despite the production dip, margins remain solid across much of the Corn Belt, with many plants still running comfortably in positive territory based on current corn, DDG, and input prices. 🏠 Housing & Interest Rates Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. Lower borrowing costs have boosted both home purchase activity and refinancing interest, with buyers responding quickly to improved affordability. 🏘️ Institutional Home Buying Debate President Trump proposed banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes as part of a broader housing affordability push. Markets reacted negatively, though economists note institutional investors own only a small share of the total housing stock. Critics warn the policy could reduce housing supply and potentially worsen affordability rather than improve it.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn Demand The Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake. The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch. Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage.  🌱 China Buys U.S. Soybeans USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement. Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter.  🚢 Brazil Export Update Brazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand. Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season.  🚜 Farmer Sentiment Slips U.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier. Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced.  📈 Stocks, Oil & Venezuela U.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs. Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌎 Geopolitics & Oil The U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela. For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply. President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy. Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power. We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including: Cuba / Soviet Union (1962) Grenada / Soviet Union (1983) Panama / Noriega (1989) 🚢 Export Inspections USDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week. Soybeans: 980,518 mt Up from the prior week Down vs. last year China accounted for roughly 40% Corn: 1.2 mmt Lower vs. last week Strongly higher vs. last year Wheat: 183,305 mt Below expectations Sharply lower week-over-week and year-over-year Marketing-year-to-date shipments: Soybeans: sharply behind last year Corn: well ahead Wheat: modestly higher 📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25. Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyer Corn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by Mexico Wheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination 🌱 Brazil Crop Update StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso. Conab: 177.6 mmt USDA: 175 mmt Based on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season. Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying. 💰 Fund Positioning The CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data. Funds continued selling corn and soybeans Soybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-November Small net buying was seen in SRW wheat 🥇 Metals & Macro Gold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions. Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌍 Geopolitics & Energy The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend. Both have been indicted on multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses. Maduro is now being held in a federal prison in New York and is expected to make his first court appearance today in Manhattan. The unprecedented military intervention drew condemnation from Russia and China, while Argentina expressed support. President Trump said the move was necessary to address drug trafficking and what he described as “stolen oil,” adding that the US will be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil industry going forward. Crude oil futures fell on last night’s open but are trading near unchanged this morning. The bigger selloff was in natural gas, which is down more than 2.5% early today. Venezuela holds the largest crude oil reserves in the world, though accessing them will take years and massive capital investment. The country also has large natural gas reserves, which could be easier to develop. 🚜 Farm Aid Update USDA announced payment rates under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program on New Year’s Eve. The agency will distribute $12 billion total, with $11 billion allocated to one-time payments for row crops and $1 billion directed to specialty crops and sugar. Payment rates: Corn: $44.36 per acre Soybeans: $30.88 per acre Wheat: $39.35 per acre Payments are based on 2025 planted acres. Second crop acres are eligible, while prevent plant acres are excluded. Farmers are expected to receive payments by the end of February. See graphics below. Click HERE and HERE for USDA links. 🌱 Grain Markets & Weather Soybean futures fell on Friday, with the Mar26 contract down nearly 10 cents before recovering. China’s purchase program now appears to be a mostly “known” factor for the current marketing year, with expectations that China will reach the 12mmt US purchase target over the next couple of months. Brazil’s forecast turns slightly drier early this week, while southern Argentina remains dry for at least another week.  🐄 Livestock Mexico reported new cases of New World screwworm last week, including a goat in central Mexico and a calf in Tamaulipas near the US border. No additional animals tested positive at either site. The news sent live and feeder cattle futures sharply higher. The US–Mexico border is expected to remain closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports for the foreseeable future. Since November 2024, authorities have recorded over 13,000 cases, with several hundred currently active.  ⛽ Ethanol US ethanol production rose to a weekly high last week at 1.12 million barrels per day. Output was higher week-over-week and year-over-year. Ethanol stocks increased slightly but remain below last year’s levels. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain positive across the Corn Belt, ranging from roughly 5 to 25 cents per gallon.  🚢 Export Sales USDA released another delayed export sales report: Soybean sales missed expectations and were sharply lower week-over-week, with China accounting for most of the total Corn sales exceeded expectations, led by Mexico Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌏 China Grain & Soybean Strategy Update China is pushing to reduce its reliance on grain and soybean imports in the name of food security. State media says Beijing plans to boost domestic grain and oilseed production through better seed quality, upgraded machinery, and more advanced farming practices. Trade tensions with the U.S. have accelerated this shift toward ag self-sufficiency. China also plans to support farm incomes, protect migrant worker employment, and extend rural land-use contracts by an additional 30 years after 2027. China’s grain production hit a record high this year, rising 1.2% to 714.9mmt. Corn and wheat self-sufficiency looks achievable, but soybeans remain a much tougher challenge.  📉 Grain & Oilseed Market Recap Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday, with the Mar26 contract slipping about a penny to settle near $10.62. This came despite China returning to the U.S. market with a soybean flash sale, as expectations for a record Brazilian crop continued to pressure prices. Corn futures moved lower on South American crop optimism, while wheat futures also finished lower amid hopes for progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations for a record Argentine wheat harvest.  🌧️ South American Weather Update Brazilian weather continues to support ideas of a large soybean crop. According to CropProphet data, Brazilian soybean areas received 106% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days (production-weighted). Forecasts remain favorable, with near-normal rainfall expected in both the 1–7 and 8–14 day periods, though amounts will vary. Argentina is a different story, with very little rain expected over the next week. Euro model guidance suggests rainfall returns to normal in the 8–14 day window, with rains likely returning to corn and soybean areas around Tuesday next week. Some southern regions may wait longer. 🌾 Argentina Crop Update Argentina’s wheat crop is now projected at a record 27.8mmt, up from 27.1mmt previously, thanks to favorable weather and strong yields. About 93% of the wheat crop has been harvested. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also reports soybean planting at 82% and corn planting at 84%. Hot and dry conditions ahead could still pose risks for corn and soybeans.  🚢 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported soybean flash sales Tuesday: • 136,000mt (5 mil bu) sold to China for 2025/26 delivery • 231,000mt (8 mil bu) sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery 🏦 Federal Reserve & Interest Rates The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady near term. December meeting minutes show growing resistance to additional cuts as inflation pressures persist. Strong economic growth and consumer spending have reduced the urgency for easing, even as unemployment has ticked higher. The Fed’s dot plot now projects just one rate cut in all of 2026. Markets are pricing an 83% chance of no cut in January, with slightly higher odds for a cut in March. 👉 Subscribe for daily grain market updates 💬 Drop your thoughts or questions in the comments

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean Export Inspections US soybean shipments disappointed again last week. Export inspections came in near the low end of expectations, with shipments well below both last week and last year. China was barely present, accounting for only a small share of total inspections. On a marketing-year basis, soybean shipments continue to lag badly compared to last year. 🌽 Corn & Wheat Shipments Corn inspections beat expectations, even though they slipped from the prior week. Compared to last year, corn shipments remain strong and well ahead on a cumulative basis. Wheat inspections also topped estimates, though they were sharply lower week-to-week and modestly below last year’s pace. 🚢 Flash Sale & Export Sales USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to Egypt early this week. Despite that sale, total accumulated soybean sales for the marketing year remain significantly behind last year, reinforcing ongoing demand concerns. 🌎 China Shifts Away from US Ag China continues pouring money into Latin American ports, railways, and logistics. These investments are designed to lock in cheaper, faster access to South American ag products—especially soybeans. With Chinese involvement now spread across dozens of ports, global trade flows are shifting in a way that may be extremely difficult for the US to reverse, even if trade relations improve. 📉 Grain Futures Slide Corn futures dropped sharply on Monday amid speculation that China could release domestic grain reserves, potentially displacing corn with older wheat in feed rations. Soybeans followed lower, pressured by weak export demand and ongoing global competition. Wheat futures also finished the day in the red. 🥩 Beef Market Outlook Beef prices could stay elevated as Brazilian cattle production slows. Brazil is entering a contraction phase as producers retain heifers, while the US cattle herd remains at its smallest level in decades. Even with lower production, Brazil is still expected to remain the world’s top beef exporter. 🪙 Silver Takes a Hit Silver prices saw a massive one-day sell-off after Friday’s historic rally. The drop was driven by profit-taking and technical pressure rather than a fundamental shift. Despite the sharp decline, silver remains dramatically higher on the year, with volatility still front and center.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🪙 Precious Metals Silver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday. 💵 US Dollar & Interest Rates The US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017. See charts below. 🌧️ South American Weather Dry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks. 🌽 Grain Markets Corn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued. 🌍 Geopolitics President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚁 Drone Industry Shock A new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry. On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market. The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future. U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left. 🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition) USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday. Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior week China was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total sales Corn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmt Japan was the largest buyer Wheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchases Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt. USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th. 🌱 Grain Market Update Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday. The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop. While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside. 🇺🇸 U.S. Economy Update The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter. GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending. Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth. 🥇 Precious Metals Explosion Precious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday. Silver surged past $70/oz Gold climbed above $4,490/oz Platinum and palladium also moved sharply higher The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data Quality The US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff. Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired. The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year. A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing. 🚢 Weekly Export Inspections US soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China. Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt. Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf. 🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Outlook AgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso. Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead. 🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea Tensions Wheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session. 📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export Sales USDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year. Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases. 💰 Gold & Macro Markets Gold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher. 👍 If you find this helpful, hit like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments. 🌾 Staying informed matters—especially right now.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 USDA Farm Aid Update The USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package. Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs. Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid. USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations. Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end. 🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells Farmland Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny. Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income. In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment. Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale. The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner. 🌽 Brazil Corn Crop Trimmed Safras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast. The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt. Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected. 🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in November China imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year. Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY). Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY). Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%. Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans. Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data. USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments. 🚨 USDA Flash Sale U.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery. Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. For the week ending December 9: Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record. The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end. 🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed Report As of December 1: Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY. November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996. Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations. The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction. 🏭 More Packing Plant Closures Possible Tight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins. Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks. Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain. Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues. Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand. Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year. Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows. Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying. There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business. 🥩 Beef Prices Beef prices remain near record highs. Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels. Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut. The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand. The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers. Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated. 🌱 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year. A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half. 📦 Export Sales Report Corn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers. Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer. Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases. 📉 Inflation Update CPI eased in November, coming in below expectations. Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation. The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy. There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December. 🌧️ Drought Monitor Scattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio. Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri. Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged. US Areas Experiencing Drought Corn: 32% Soybeans: 33% Winter Wheat: 36% Spring Wheat: 16% Cattle: 27%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On? Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week. Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume. 📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday: Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations Corn sold to Mexico A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market. 🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue. Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside. ⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals. Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year. 💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December. ⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt. 📌 Bottom Line China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏥 ACA Health Insurance & Farmers Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums. Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage. Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain. As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks. 🌱 Grain Markets Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37. Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10. 🇨🇳 China & Soybeans China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies. Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle. The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans. 👷 US Labor Market The labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020. Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation. Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased. 🛢️ Oil & Energy Oil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021. The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush NOPA released its November crush report on Monday US soybean crush hit an all-time November record Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations 📉 Soybean Futures Pressure Soybean futures extended losses on Monday The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72 Market pressure continues from: Slow Chinese buying Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation 🚢 Export Inspections Update US soybean inspections disappointed last week Shipments were well below last year’s pace About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement 🧪 Fertilizer Market News The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk 📦 USDA Flash Sales USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery Corn sold to unknown destinations 📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition) USDA released another outdated export sales report Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China Corn sales slipped from the prior week Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybean, Corn & Wheat Markets Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower. 📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time.  🚢 USDA Flash Sales & China Watch USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher.  🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical Commodities Hedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses.  ⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas Delayed The EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Fertilizer Markets Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia. While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions. Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production. Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers. For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery. Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP. 🌎 Export Flash Sales Soybeans: 264,000 mt to China (25/26) 266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) Corn: 186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) 📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations Mexico was the top buyer Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week Germany was the largest buyer Small China cancellation Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply Unknown destinations led buying 🇧🇷 South America Update Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt Still a record crop if realized The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting About 90% planted as of early December First exportable supplies expected early January Total exports estimated at 112 mmt 🌦️ US Drought Monitor Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma Areas Experiencing Drought: 🌽 Corn: 31% 🌱 Soybeans: 31% 🌾 Winter Wheat: 34% 🌾 Spring Wheat: 16% 🐄 Cattle: 25%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🏦 Fed Cuts Rates for the Third Straight Meeting The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates another quarter point on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate down to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest since September 2022. Three FOMC members dissented — the most pushback since 2019 — signaling deep concern about the path forward. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the goal is to steady the labor market while keeping inflation moving toward the 2% target. The Fed’s new projections show just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, far fewer than markets expected. Some economists warn that stagflation is becoming a real risk — inflation that stays too high while job growth weakens. 👉 Prices keep rising while the economy slows, family budgets get squeezed, and fixing one problem risks worsening the other. 🌱 Soybeans Rebound on Flash Sales Soybean futures stabilized after multi-week lows. Jan26 beans +4¢, settling near $10.91 after USDA announced a 5 mil bu sale to China and 12 mil bu to unknown destinations. Gains were limited by ongoing confusion regarding China’s schedule for buying the agreed 12mmt of U.S. soybeans. Corn and wheat moved lower: • Mar26 corn −4¢ → ~$4.44 • Mar Chicago wheat −5¢ → ~$5.30 🚢 Fresh Flash Sales Reported Wednesday USDA confirmed new export activity for 2025/26 delivery: • 136,000mt soybeans → China (~5 mil bu) • 331,000mt soybeans → Unknown (~12 mil bu) • 120,000mt soybean cake & meal → Poland 🌾 Trump Administration Rolls Out $700M Regenerative Ag Pilot The White House announced a $700 million program under “Make America Healthy Again” to expand practices like cover crops, no-till, conservation planning, and whole-farm soil & water management. Farmers will apply through EQIP or CSP, with an emphasis on soil health, water quality, and habitat. 📝 Payment rates have not yet been released. ⚓ Ukraine Hits Russia’s Shadow Fleet Again Ukraine used Sea Baby drones to attack a large Suezmax tanker tied to Russia’s oil trade. The empty vessel (1 million-barrel capacity) suffered major damage. As these attacks continue: • Freight costs are expected to rise • Crews are increasingly wary of Black Sea movements • Putin warned he may retaliate against vessels controlled by Ukraine’s allies • He also suggested Russia could cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea entirely ⛽ US Ethanol Production Slips Weekly ethanol output fell to 1.11 million bpd (−1.9% vs. last week, +3% vs. last year). Stocks declined to 22.51 million barrels, slightly lower week-over-week and −2.1% versus last year. Margins have weakened: Reuters estimates break-even to +30¢ across the Corn Belt based on spot corn, DDGs, inputs, and product values.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 Soybean Purchase Deadline Confusion Questions remain over China’s commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline isn’t year-end but “end of the growing season.” Nobody seems to agree on what that actually means. The White House fact sheet indicated the end of 2025, while Greer insists there’s a discrepancy in the published deadline vs. the real one. So far this marketing year, China has purchased only 3mmt of US soybeans. The CNBC article we’re referencing is… interesting. Greer, Bessent, and former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber all seem to have different interpretations of the deadline.  📊 USDA Report—Soybeans Weak, Corn Strong Tuesday’s WASDE didn’t bring many surprises. • Soybean exports unchanged at 1.64B bu—a 13-year low • Ending stocks unchanged at 290M bu • Exports currently running ~40% below last year → further cuts likely Corn was the bright spot: • Record 3.2B bu corn export forecast • Ending stocks trimmed to 2.03B bu, lower than trade expected 🚜 Deere Responds on High Machinery Costs After President Trump’s call for lower tractor prices, John Deere says it is helping farmers cut costs—not by lowering sticker prices, but through automation that reduces labor and chemical use. Equipment inflation has been driven by: • Post-COVID manufacturing inflation • Tech advancements • Steel & aluminum tariffs 🐄 USDA Cuts 2026 Fat Cattle Price Forecast • New forecast: $235/cwt—down 4.5% from November • Still 5% above the 2025 projection USDA cited reduced packing capacity as the driver. Tyson is closing its Lexington, NE, beef plant and cutting the second shift at Amarillo. US beef imports for 2026 are now forecast at a record 5.45M lbs, supported by tariff relief on major suppliers like Brazil. 🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Grain Export Taxes Permanent tax cuts are coming soon: • Soybeans 24% → 22% • Soymeal/soyoil 24.5% → 22.5% • Corn 9.5% → 8.5% • Wheat 9.5% → 7.5% Milei’s government frames this as a step toward fully eliminating export tariffs. 🥈 Silver Breaks Record High Spot silver rallied ~4% Tuesday to $60.50/oz 📈 Drivers include: • Expected Fed rate cuts today • Newly added to US critical minerals list → tariff & supply concerns • Weaker dollar + geopolitical safe-haven flows Silver is now up ~110% YTD, beating gold and platinum.  📑 CFTC Data Catch-Up Accelerated Commitments of Traders Reports will be current by the end of December, not late January. Expect fast-tracked report releases over the next several weeks.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚜 Farm Aid & Tractor Prices President Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid package on Monday and urged ag equipment makers to lower tractor prices — blaming environmental regulations for higher costs. The administration plans to lift some of those rules to reduce equipment expenses. • $11B → one-time payments to row-crop farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program • $1B → specialty crops • Eligibility: AGI below $900k for 2022–24 tax years • Acreage reporting due by Dec 19 — 5pm ET • Payments expected by Feb 28, 2026 FBA looks much more like ECAP than the old MFP. Rates aren’t out yet. Covered crops: Barley, Chickpeas, Corn, Cotton, Lentils, Oats, Peanuts, Peas, Rice, Sorghum, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, Crambe, Flax, Mustard, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sesame & Sunflower. 📊 USDA Crop Production Report—Today 11:00am CST Traders expect minimal changes to US ending stocks: • Corn & wheat → slight declines • Soybeans → modest increase Global: slightly more beans & wheat, slightly fewer corn stocks. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook AgRural projects: • Corn: 135.3mmt (↓ from 141.1mmt record last year) • Soybeans: 178.5mmt (unchanged) Dry southern weather remains a risk to yields. The US crop is ~3.2× bigger than Brazil’s upcoming corn crop—but Brazil will export ~33% of production vs the US at 18–19%. 📦 🇨🇳 Flash Sale to China Another soybean flash sale Monday: • 132,000mt (5 mil bu) → China for 25/26 delivery Since late October, China has now booked 2.85mmt (105 mil bu) via flash sales. 🚢 Export Inspections Week ending Dec 4: • Soybeans: 1mmt—+9% vs wk prior but -41% vs last year • Corn: 1.5 mmt—above expectations, +36% vs last year • Wheat: 393kmt—+59% vs last year China finally showed up—119,895 mt of beans were inspected at the Gulf. PNW still quiet: only one cargo to Taiwan from WA/OR. 📝 Export Sales (still catch-up reports) Week ending Nov 6: • Beans: 510,600 mt—down 59% w/w (China lead buyer) • Corn: 979,500 mt—down 51% w/w (Japan lead buyer) • Wheat: 462,500 mt—up 8% w/w (Japan lead buyer)

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. The Trump administration is expected to announce a $12 billion aid package for farmers today. The announcement will take place around 2 this afternoon in Washington, DC. About $11 billion will go to crop farmers through the new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with the rest going toward other commodities. The funds have been authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be administered by the FSA. 🎯 China Soybean Purchases Back in Gear! China resumed buying US soybeans late last week. US exporters reported 462,000mt (17M bushels) sold to China for 25/26 delivery. Since late October, China’s total buys sit at 2.7mmt (~100M bu)… still a long way from the 12mmt commitment. 📉 🤝 US–China Trade Call US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held a “productive” video call Friday. The big talking point: the new trade truce and soybean commitments. 🗓️ The wrinkle: The White House originally said 12mmt by Dec 31, but last week Bessent suggested deliveries would instead occur by the end of February—raising fresh questions about the terms of this “commitment.” 📊 Fund Activity: Catch-Up CFTC Data The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report: Funds bought 76k corn contracts 🌽 Funds bought 83k soybean contracts 🌱 → Net long 120k = biggest since April 2018 Funds bought 34k SRW wheat contracts 🌾 The big soybean buying lines up with the late-October trade truce. CFTC says data will be fully current by late January. 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Update Planting is nearly wrapped up: 91% planted vs 95% last year Mostly complete in Mato Grosso and other top states New crop estimates vary widely: Patria: 171.9mmt Conab: 177.6mmt USDA: 175mmt 🌧️ Next 10 days: Most of Brazil sees rainfall—especially the dry south 🇺🇸 Early USDA Acreage Outlook USDA’s first look at 26/27: Corn: 95M acres (↓ 3.7%) Soybeans: 85M acres (↑ 4.8%) Wheat: 44M acres (↓ 2.9%) These numbers reflect expectations from USDA’s Nov. 14 WASDE.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Grain Export Demand Still 🔥 USDA reported multiple flash corn sales on Thursday: • 100,800mt to Colombia • 392,500mt to Mexico ➡️ Both for 2025/26 MY Corn demand remains fantastic — 🚢 exports + ⚗️ ethanol running near record pace — yet futures just can’t seem to catch a bid. 📦 “Catch-Up” Export Sales Report Week ending Oct 30: • Corn: 2mmt — down 📉 11% WoW (Mexico biggest buyer) • Soybeans: 1.2mmt — down 📉 14% WoW (Unknown biggest buyer; China finally showed with 232kmt) • Wheat: 505kmt — down slightly (Mexico biggest buyer) 🐖 China’s Pork Prices Keep Sinking • Pork values now the lowest since 2022 • Prices -18% YTD, expected to fall further • Weak consumer spending + slow economy • China’s sow herd only -2.1% YoY so far ➡️ If cuts deepen → less feed demand → soybean implications ⛽ API Flips Again on E15 American Petroleum Institute now supports year-round E15 🤯 ✔ Joined biofuel groups urging legislation ✔ Also pushing for limits on EPA refinery exemptions 🔊 Pete Meyer: “Positive step but not mandatory. Stations need blender pumps + storage — not feasible in big cities.” 🌾 Canada’s Record Wheat Crop StatsCan final crop report: • ~40mmt wheat, 🔺11.2% YoY — new all-time record • Beats 38.5mmt estimates • Spring wheat the driver: 29.3mmt (+10.3% YoY) ➡️ More pressure on a wheat market already struggling — especially spring wheat vs winter wheat 🌦 Drought Monitor Update Corn Belt: mostly steady ✔ Improvements: N. Illinois & SE Wisconsin ❌ Slight worsening: Michigan High Plains: little change ✔ Only modest improvement in NE Kansas US Areas in Drought: • Corn — 30% • Soybeans — 30% • Winter Wheat — 35% • Spring Wheat — 16% • Cattle — 25%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚜 China Soybeans: Goalposts Moving? China is expected to fulfill its US soybean purchase agreement… eventually. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will meet its commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. The White House originally said by year-end, but Bessent now expects by the end of February. To date, China has purchased just 2.2mmt (~19%) of the required volume. 🤨 The White House "Fact" Sheet stated—verbatim—that China will buy at least 12mmt during the last two months of 2025… plus 25mmt annually through 2028. Now the timeline has magically shifted. Sure sounds like some goalpost-dragging.  📦 Chinese shipments of US soybeans are set to ramp up in the coming weeks: At least 6 vessels scheduled to load from the Gulf 1 vessel already en route—the first since May Still well behind typical purchase pace Low Chinese demand = pressure on soybean prices US sorghum shipments to China have also resumed for the first time since March. 🌽 Iowa Eyeing More Corn in 2026 Iowa State University’s Dennis Johnson says farmers in north-central Iowa are leaning toward more corn acres next year. Corn has been the consistent moneymaker—despite some southern rust this year—and early 2026 budgets still favor corn over beans. He advised not to go overboard on fungicides next season… Just scout the crop. ⛽️ Ethanol Production = New Record US output hit 1.13mil bpd last week—an all-time high. Stocks rose to 22.51mil barrels. But… ethanol margins have softened: Roughly –$0.05 to +$0.25/gal depending on the plant ⚓ Black Sea Insurance Costs Explode Ukrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels have caused insurance rates to triple for ships calling at Russian ports. Escalating risks raise concerns about retaliation: ➡️ Potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure ➡️ Ongoing pressure on global grain trade dynamics 📉 US Jobs Market Cooldown Continues ADP reports 32,000 private-sector job losses in November vs. +47,000 in October. Hiring has slowed sharply under tariff fallout + tighter immigration. Monthly job growth: 62k (Jul–Sep 2025) vs 186k (same period 2024) 😬 Markets see an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇷🇺 Black Sea Threats Push Grain Higher Tensions escalated again this week after Russia warned it may retaliate for a recent surge in Ukrainian attacks on its tanker fleet. Vladimir Putin said Moscow could strike vessels belonging to countries that support Ukraine and even cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea if attacks continue. Several Russian-affiliated tankers have already been targeted over the last week — a notable escalation from prior sporadic incidents. Corn and wheat futures responded quickly: Mar26 corn +5¢ to $4.50, and March Chicago wheat +6¢ to $5.41. Russia and Ukraine together are expected to account for 27% of global wheat exports and 13.5% of global corn exports this year. 🌎 🌱 China Soybean Commitment: Can They Still Do It? Some traders still believe China can meet its 12mmt US soybean purchase pledge, but they’ve got a long way to go. State-owned importers — especially Cofco — are expected to ramp up buying in the next few weeks, including shipments destined for state reserves. The problem? US beans are still priced at a premium versus South America, leaving little commercial incentive. To date, China has purchased only 2.25mmt — just 18.8% of its commitment. To hit the target, they’d need to buy more than 2mmt per week for the rest of the year. There are 20 business days left in 2025, meaning China must average 487,450mt per business day to reach the White House goal. Most analysts view recent buying as short-term political optics, not a durable shift toward US supplies. 🚢 More US Soybeans Heading to China Reuters reports at least six bulk vessels will load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals in the next two weeks. Based on USDA flash data, China has “officially” purchased 2.2mmt so far this marketing year—but the true number could be higher due to USDA reporting delays. These shipments likely reflect previously reported sales. China taking a small batch of US soybeans is not new information and not bullish. 💵 Bridge Payment Coming Next Week Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed Tuesday that a farm “bridge payment” will be announced next week. The program is designed to provide short-term relief while longer-term trade and assistance plans are finalized. President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” expanded farm support, but many groups argue more is needed heading into next season. Even before the bridge payment, the US is on track to spend $40+ billion on farm payments this year—the second-highest total since 1933. 🌾 📈 Farmer Sentiment Surges US farmer sentiment jumped sharply in November. Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer rose to 139, the highest since June, with much of the increase driven by stronger future expectations. The Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144. This was the first survey after the newly negotiated US–China trade truce, likely boosting optimism.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Lawmakers are zeroed in on trade issues and a potential new farm-aid package as the year winds down. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is expected to release details this week—but many in D.C. and across farm country say it won’t be nearly enough. The American Farm Bureau notes that the rumored $12B is a fraction of the $50B+ in losses farmers have endured over the last three years. Deputy USDA Secretary Stephen Vaden added that recently negotiated trade deals could impact how much aid is ultimately distributed. 🚢 Export Inspections: Soybeans Still Dragging Soybeans: 920,194mt (34M bu) — +14% vs last week, but -56% vs last year 😬 Corn: 1.4mmt (56M bu)—-16% vs last week, +50% vs last year 🚀 Wheat: 384,881mt (14M bu) — -20% vs last week, +29% vs last year A small amount of sorghum headed to China. Expect more China-bound soybeans in the coming weeks. 🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update Private group AgRural pegs soybean planting at 89%, slightly behind last year’s 91%. Moisture issues exist in pockets, but it’s still too early to raise yield concerns. Patria Agronegocios: 171.9mmt (+0.2%) Conab: 177.6mmt USDA: 175.0mmt 📈 Catch-Up Export Sales (Week Ending Oct 23) Soybeans: 1.4mmt (53M bu), +31%, Mexico top buyer Corn: 1.8mmt (71M bu), -36%, Mexico top buyer Wheat: 499,800mt (18M bu), +46%, unknown destinations top buyer 🇦🇺 Massive Australian Wheat Crop Incoming Australia’s Department of Agriculture raised its forecast to 35.6 mmt—up 5.3% and potentially the third-largest crop on record. Timely spring rains + mild temps = big yields. This adds to global supply pressure, with Chicago wheat recently hitting 5-year lows. USDA expects Australia to account for 4.3% of global output this year. 👍 Thanks for watching! Drop a comment, smash the like button, and subscribe for daily updates. Stay informed—stay independent. 🌾📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down export sales, flash deals, China/Brazil soybean news, ethanol margins, and record-setting Black Friday spending. 👇 📦 Weekly Export Sales (Backdated Again…) Corn: USDA reported 2.8mmt (111 mil bu) in net corn sales for the week ending Oct 16—well above expectations and sharply higher than last week. Mexico was the top buyer. I continue to believe that in real time, US corn sales are running at a record pace, despite the outdated data. Soybeans: Net sales hit 1.1mmt (41 mil bu), up 41% from last week. The Netherlands was the top buyer. Wheat: Came in at 341,300mt (13 mil bu), below expectations and down 44% from last week. Colombia was the top buyer. 🚨 Flash Sales Update USDA reported multiple flashes Friday: • 312,000mt (11 mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 25/26 • 273,988mt (11 mil bu) of corn sold to Unknown for 25/26 Through Flash Sales alone, China has achieved 18.1% of the 12mmt pre-January purchase goal. There are 22 business days left in 2025. China must average 443,136mt/day to hit the White House target. 🇨🇳🇧🇷 China Suspends Some Brazilian Soybean Imports China halted shipments from five Brazilian export facilities after detecting pesticide-treated wheat contamination. Impacted companies include Cargill, CHS, and Louis Dreyfus. Exports from unaffected plants will continue — China still has 2,000+ approved Brazilian facilities. Similar issues earlier this year were resolved quickly. 🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins • Production rose to 1.11 mil bpd last week (+2% WoW). • Stocks fell to 21.97 mil barrels (-1.5% WoW). • Both metrics are slightly stronger vs. the same week last year. Margins remain solid: Reuters shows Corn Belt ethanol plants earning +10¢ to +40¢ per gallon depending on local corn, DDGs, and inputs. 🛍️ Black Friday: Record Online Spending US consumers spent $11.8B online on Black Friday (+9.1% YoY) and another $6.4B on Thanksgiving Day. In-store traffic fell 3.6% YoY. Despite tariff uncertainty and a softening job market, analysts still expect holiday spending to top $1T this season—with more shoppers leaning on buy-now-pay-later options.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China Steps Up US Soybean Buying China made major purchases of US soybeans this week. Since Tuesday, Chinese buyers have booked an estimated 10–15 cargoes — roughly $300 million in value. These sales followed President Trump’s call with Xi Jinping, during which Trump urged China to accelerate purchases, and Xi largely agreed. All cargoes are slated for January shipment out of Gulf Coast and PNW ports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that US soybean exports to China are “right on schedule.” The Trump administration claims China has agreed to buy 12mmt before Jan 1 and 25mmt annually for the next three years. China has not officially confirmed these numbers, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins expects confirmation in the coming weeks. 🕊️ Ukraine–Russia Peace Framework? Multiple sources say Ukraine is ready to move forward with a US-backed peace framework. The original US proposal — once 28 points and seen as favorable to Russia — has been cut to 19 revised points after input from both sides. Russia has not yet confirmed its position, and major terms are still unresolved. US officials will continue negotiations this week. 📊 CFTC Fund Positioning Update CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report: Funds sold 54k corn contracts → net short grows to 188k, the largest since early July. Funds sold 1k soybean and 15k SRW wheat contracts. SRW wheat net short of 111k is the biggest since mid-May. Private estimates for yesterday’s close: Corn: –110k Soybeans: +120k SRW Wheat: –65k CFTC expects to be fully current by late January. Charts below. 🚢 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) For the week ending Oct 9: Corn: 1.3 mmt—down 41% Soybeans: 785k mt—down 15% Wheat: 613.9k mt—down 31% Mexico was the top buyer across all three.  🎰 Online Betting Risks Are Growing Bank of America warns that online betting and prediction markets are driving higher debt loads, especially among low-income consumers and young men. Research shows: Lower credit scores Higher bankruptcy rates More debt going to collections Prediction markets have surged, letting people bet “yes/no” on everything from elections to sports.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳🚢 China to Resume Shipments of US Soybeans & Sorghum Two Chinese vessels are scheduled to arrive at grain terminals near New Orleans this week to load US soybeans—the first such shipments since May. Another vessel is expected in Corpus Christi next week to load sorghum, marking the first sorghum shipment to China since March. These movements follow increased Chinese purchasing after the late-October trade truce in South Korea. According to the Trump administration, China has agreed to buy 12mmt of US soybeans by January and 25mmt annually over the next three years. China has not yet officially confirmed the deal. 🌱📈 Fresh US Soybean Sales to China China resumed buying on Monday. USDA reported: • 123,000mt (5 million bushels) sold for 2025/26 • 1.92mmt (71 million bushels) purchased so far in November With 25 business days left in 2025, China must average 402,440mt/day to hit the targeted 12mmt. 🚢🌎 US Export Inspections (Week Ending Nov 20) Soybeans: • 799,042mt (29mb) • Down 34% vs. last week, down 62% vs. last year—still disappointing Corn: • 1.6mmt (64mb) • Down 21% from last week but up 62% vs. last year Wheat: • 474,530mt (17mb) • Up 92% vs. last week and up 30% vs. last year 📞🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Phone Call President Trump says the call covered Chinese purchases of US soybeans and other ag goods. He described the trade truce as a “great deal” for US farmers. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said all elements of the agreement are being implemented. The two leaders agreed to meet in person—first in April in Beijing, then later in the US. 💵🚜 More Farmer Aid Expected USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says details of the long-discussed farmer assistance package will be released within the next two weeks. The Farm Bureau welcomed the update, calling aid “urgently needed.” Rollins also indicated that China will formally confirm its soybean purchase commitments within the next few weeks. 🌧️🌽 China Corn Market: Prices Hit 2-Month High Chinese corn futures have rallied due to: • Excessive rains damaging crops in major northern regions • Slow farmer selling • Government import restrictions keeping foreign corn out Through October, China’s corn imports totaled less than 1mmt, down 93% from last year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage Crunch Wisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs. Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground. United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible. Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight. Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices. USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa. Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields. Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal. 🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Update Consulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year. Still ahead of the 75% five-year average. Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields. Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted. 🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the Board As of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations. Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October. Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations. Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction. Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding. 🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef Plant Tyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day. Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted. Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers. Changes take effect by end of January. Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year. 💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent Outlook The government shutdown cost the US economy $11B. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth. Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk. Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌦️ Weather & Drought Update Most of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI. • Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme • High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OK US Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33% 💰 Farm Financial Stress Three straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch. • Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year • U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12 • Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%) Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis. 🚢 China Purchases & Export Sales Flash Sales Thursday: • 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY) • 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY) • China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MY Brazil & Argentina Shipments: • Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY) • Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY) • U.S. → 0mt China imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment. 📦 Export Sales Snapshot Corn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyer Soybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyer Wheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer 🐂 Cattle Markets Cattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate. • Trump is pushing lower beef prices • Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish • Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸 Farm Aid Update The Trump administration is expected to announce additional farmer assistance in early December. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the aid is likely coming during the first week of the month. Details remain limited. The package was originally planned for this fall but delayed by the government shutdown. Farmers continue to face pressure from inflation, policy uncertainty, and trade-related disruptions. Even with the uptick in Chinese soybean buying, the administration believes more support is necessary heading into next planting season. 🇨🇳 China Soybean Purchases USDA reported another flash sale to China on Wednesday: • 330,000mt (≈12 million bushels) sold • China has now purchased 1.4mmt (≈50 million bushels) in recent weeks There are 29 business days left before Jan 1. To hit the 12mmt target the White House outlined, China would need to average 367,103mt (13.5 million bu) per day. Rumors point to 4–5 additional cargoes sold yesterday that may show up in today’s reporting. 🌱 2026 Acreage Outlook (S&P Global) S&P Global’s monthly survey points to: • Corn acres down to 95 million (–3.8%) • Soybean acres up to 84.5 million (+4%) • All wheat acres down to 44 million (–2.9%) 🛢️ Biofuel Credit Cuts May Be Delayed The administration is weighing a 1–2 year delay in cutting biofuel import credits. • Cuts were scheduled for Jan 1 • Would have reduced RIN credits earned by imported biofuels/inputs • Refiners warn cuts could tighten fuel supplies and raise prices EPA is reviewing comments and will finalize rules in the coming months. Soybean oil futures dropped more than 2% on the headline. 🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins US ethanol output increased to 1.09M barrels/day last week (+1.5% WoW). Stocks climbed to 22.31M barrels, slightly higher on the week and year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from +5 to +35 cents depending on plant and input mix. 📉 CFTC Commitment of Traders CFTC released its first COT data since reopening: • Corn: Funds sold 32k → net short now 129k • Soybeans: Funds sold 7k → net short now 32k • SRW Wheat: Funds bought 1k → net short trimmed to 96k CFTC expects to be fully current again by late January.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🤝 Trade Deals & Farmer Aid Outlook Recent trade agreements may impact the likelihood of additional farmer assistance. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says market conditions have shifted since aid discussions began earlier this fall. New trade deals with China, Pakistan, and Japan have led to significant purchase commitments for U.S. commodities. Back in early October, the Trump administration was considering at least $10B in farmer aid, modeled after the previous Market Facilitation Program, which paid out $23B during the China trade war. Vaden quote: “The entire goal of any program should be to provide a bridge to 2026 and to reflect current market conditions, which thankfully have improved. Soybean prices are at 15-month highs… but we will need to take that new data into account as we measure the amount of aid that we can and should provide.” 🚢 Big USDA Flash Sale to China USDA reported a 792,000mt (29M bushel) soybean sale to China on Tuesday. Combined with last week’s 232,000mt flash sale, China has now purchased roughly 1mmt (38M bushels) of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks. Yesterday’s announcement confirmed Monday’s rumored sales — and in classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” fashion, the market peaked right before confirmation. More flash sales later this week wouldn’t be surprising. 📊 CFTC Data Returns Today The CFTC will resume publishing Commitment of Traders reports today for the first time since the late-September report. The shutdown limited data availability and discouraged large speculative positioning. This afternoon’s release will cover data originally scheduled for October 3. Private estimates heading into yesterday’s close: Funds short 50k corn Long 150k soybeans Short 60k SRW wheat CFTC won’t be fully caught up until late January—a frustrating delay in an era where this should take a week. 🚜 Crop Progress Update USDA released its first crop progress report since reopening: Corn: 91% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 94% avg.). Nebraska only 74% vs 97% last year. Soybeans: 95% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 96% avg.). LA, MN, and SD are finished. Winter Wheat: 45% good/excellent (49% last year, slightly above 44% avg). 🌧️ Argentina Flooding Delays Planting Flooding is delaying corn and soybean planting in parts of Argentina. Roughly 1.5M hectares (3.7M acres) are at high risk of becoming unusable after months of heavy rain. Poor drainage and rural road conditions have worsened the situation. Argentina is the world’s top soybean meal & oil exporter and the #3 corn exporter. USDA expects 24M hectares (59.3M acres) of combined corn/soy area this season—meaning about 6% of total area is at risk.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links— Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌤️ Markets: Soybeans Surge on China Buying Soybean futures ripped higher Monday on renewed optimism that China is finally buying US product. Jan26 soybeans jumped about 33 cents to $11.57, the best trade since June 2024. Reuters reported that COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes (~31 mil bu), while Bloomberg pegged the total closer to 20 cargoes. One soybean cargo = ~60,000mt or ~2.2 mil bu. China’s recent buying (including last week’s 232kmt flash sale) suggests total purchases of 1.0–1.4mmt in recent weeks — only 8–12% of the 12mmt the White House says China will buy before Jan 1. The rally and firmer spreads are being driven entirely by this Chinese activity. But… higher US futures are once again pricing us above Brazil, hurting competitiveness. 📊 USDA Flash Sale Corrections USDA revised several daily sales from the shutdown backlog: The early-November soybean sale to China was cut from 232kmt to 132kmt after a 100kmt cancellation. Total Chinese soybean purchases reported via flash sales now total 232kmt over two separate announcements. USDA also removed a previously reported corn sale to Japan. 🏭 NOPA Crush Sets a Record NOPA members processed 227.65 million bushels in October — a new all-time high. +15% from September +14% from October 2024 Well above the trade estimate of 209.52 million Soybean oil stocks hit 1.31 billion lbs—still the third-lowest October on record, but: +5% vs September +22% vs last year Above expectations at 1.26 billion 🚢 Export Inspections Mixed Soybeans: USDA reported 1.2mmt (~43 mil bu) inspected last week — • +4.6% on the week • –48% vs last year • Zero inspected for China Corn: 2.1mmt (~81 mil bu) — • +38% on the week • +135% vs last year • Easily beat expectations Wheat: 246,533mt (~9 mil bu) — • –15% on the week • +25% vs last year • Missed expectations 🐄 US Dairy Herd Hits 25-Year High The US dairy herd reached 9.54 million head in Q3 — the largest since 1993. Producers are keeping more cows to expand beef-on-dairy output at a time when the US beef cow herd is at its smallest level in 70+ years. This trend won’t fully fix the cattle shortage, but it could drive the first increase in the US calf crop since 2018 and help stabilize supply during future cattle-cycle lows.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China Falls Far Short of US Soybean Targets Concerns are growing over China’s commitment to purchase US soybeans. USDA data released Friday showed that China has purchased just 332,000mt of US soybeans since the recently negotiated trade truce—less than 3% of the 12mmt China was reported to have agreed to buy by January. Officials also suggested China would purchase 25mmt annually for the next three years, but there’s little evidence of follow-through. With 31 business days left in 2025, China would need to average 376,387mt per day (about 14 million bushels daily) to meet the target. For now, China has little incentive to buy US soybeans because Brazil and South America are offering cheaper, abundant supplies. Even so, President Trump has said Chinese officials assured him that “much larger” purchases are coming. 📊 USDA Report: Bearish Corn, Softer Soybean Outlook Friday’s USDA report carried a bearish tone for corn. USDA cut the national corn yield to 186 bpa and production to 16.75B bu, but trade expected even lower. The average pre-report guess was 184 bpa and 16.56B bu. Soybean yield was trimmed to 53 bpa, with production at 4.25B bu, both below expectations. Despite the new US–China trade truce, USDA reduced its soybean export forecast to 1.6B bu. The agency also noted that several normal data sources were unavailable, raising concerns about data quality and reliability. 🧪 Tariffs Removed on Fertilizer Products President Trump signed an executive order Friday removing reciprocal tariffs on several agricultural inputs, including DAP, MAP, and potash. The American Soybean Association welcomed the move, expecting lower fertilizer costs for farmers. Critics counter that the rollback effectively admits that prior tariffs raised consumer and producer costs. The administration maintains the tariffs improved America’s economic leverage. 🇧🇷 Brazil Weather: Spotty Rain, Slow Soybean Planting Inconsistent rainfall continues to slow Brazil’s planting pace. AgRural estimated soybean planting at 71%, behind 80% during the same week last year. CropProphet data shows key Brazilian soybean areas received 82% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks, with Mato Grosso at 77%. 🥩 Tariff Changes for Food Products Trump also reduced tariffs on certain food products not grown in the US, including beef. The order removes the 10% tariff imposed on Brazilian beef last April but leaves the existing 40% tariff (from July) and 26.4% over-quota tariff in place—meaning Brazilian beef still faces a combined 66.4% rate. The policy shift has introduced uncertainty into cattle markets and weighed on prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown. 📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST) Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large. • Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines • US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases • Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks • October reports were skipped due to the shutdown 🚢 US Export Sales Return After Shutdown For the week ending Sept 25: • Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer • Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer • Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer ⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year: • Output: -2.7% • Stocks: +1% Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc. 🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook Soybeans: • Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year) • Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports Corn: • Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y) • Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y) 🌧️ US Drought Monitor Update Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week. • Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana • Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin • High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma US Areas in Drought: 🌽 Corn—29% 🫘 Soybeans—31% 🌾 Winter Wheat — 39% 🌾 Spring Wheat—17% 🐄 Cattle — 28%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Grain Markets This Morning Soybean futures posted fresh highs overnight. Jan26 pushed above $11.40 for the first time this year, marking the best continuation trade since July 2024. Corn and wheat followed higher — Dec25 corn added a few cents to trade near $4.35 as traders brace for a potential USDA yield cut on Friday. Dryness and disease across parts of the Corn Belt remain key storylines. 🇨🇳 US–China Truce & 2025 Soybean Acres Market economist Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) says the trade truce is supportive for soybean demand, basis, and planted acreage next year. Soybean futures are at one-year highs, crush demand keeps climbing, and he compared today’s soybean story to early ethanol-era corn demand 15–20 years ago. Early farm budgets still lean toward corn, but the Dec26 corn / Nov26 soybean ratio has softened with recent rallies in both markets. 🚫 China Has Stopped Buying US Soybeans (Again) Chinese soybean purchases have paused following a brief round of post-truce buying. There’s growing doubt they’ll meet: 12mmt pledge before Jan 1 25mmt annually over the next three years China never officially confirmed the commitments, and many analysts see them as more diplomatic than binding. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper, China’s stocks are comfortable, and US beans still face a 13% tariff. With the 43-day government shutdown now over, traders will look to tomorrow’s USDA export sales to reveal what (if anything) China bought in recent weeks. 🌾 Friday’s USDA Crop Production & WASDE (11:00am CST) Expectations heading into Friday: Corn: Large downward yield/production revision expected, though still record-large crop Soybeans: Slight cuts to yield and production Ending stocks: Modestly higher for corn/soy/wheat Global stocks: Minimal changes expected USDA skipped the October reports due to the shutdown, so this release covers two months of revisions. 🍌 Tariff Talk: Food Imports on the Table The Trump administration is considering removing tariffs on food items not produced domestically — coffee, bananas, etc. The discussion comes after GOP losses in recent state/local elections where cost-of-living concerns were front and center. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says household costs should ease by the first half of 2026. He also reiterated that no final decision has been made on Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend. Many of the affected products are sourced from Brazil, and some traders think the administration may be preparing to drop current 50% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports. Beef imports are being discussed quietly given Trump's recent clash with high beef prices.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China Chooses Brazil China’s state-owned COFCO has signed a $10B deal to purchase 20mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products. The agreement includes contracts with ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus. Despite the recent US–China trade truce, Beijing has yet to make major US soybean purchases—and the 13% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. While much of this business likely would’ve happened anyway, it’s a bad look for the U.S. considering the White House’s touted 12mmt purchase floor due by January 1st. 🇹🇭 Thailand Boosts U.S. Corn Imports As part of its U.S. trade concessions, Thailand will raise its annual feed-corn import quota from 54,700mt to 1mmt — and eliminate the 20% in-quota tariff. Imports will be allowed Feb 1–June 30 to protect domestic producers. Thailand’s total feed demand is projected at 21.8mmt, with about 60% imported, mainly corn, soybean meal, and wheat. The country isn’t a top-10 global importer, but it’s a notable shift in regional demand. 🏛️ Shutdown Nears an End The Senate passed a temporary funding bill Monday, and the House votes today. The measure would fund most agencies through January, with USDA funded through September 30. All unpaid federal workers will be compensated, and no layoffs are expected through January. Still, it may take weeks for USDA reporting and air travel to normalize. Traders are watching for the return of two key reports: 1️⃣ CFTC Commitment of Traders – what are “the funds” doing? 2️⃣ USDA Export Sales – has China actually bought anything? 🌽 WASDE & Crop Production Ahead The USDA’s November reports drop Friday at 11:00am CST. Markets expect: A downward revision to U.S. corn yield and production Slight declines for soybeans Marginal increases to U.S. ending stocks Because of the shutdown, October’s reports were skipped—so this release carries extra weight.  📈 Grain Market Recap Futures were mixed Tuesday—corn and Chicago wheat gained modestly, while soybeans slipped. Traders continue to assess the pace of a government reopening and China’s lack of buying activity despite the trade truce. Beijing seems to have little incentive to meet even short-term U.S. purchase goals.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸 Iowa Farmland Controversy Iowa Auditor and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is backing a plan to raise taxes on out-of-state property owners — including farmland. Sand argues it would help make land more affordable for Iowans and preserve state culture. 👉 Iowa State University’s 2022 data shows half of Iowa farmland is owned by non-farmers, and a quarter of 2022 land sales were investment-driven. Two of the top 10 landowners in Iowa are based out of state. 🌱 Market Update Soybeans led Monday’s rally—Jan 26, up 13¢ to $11.30/bu—as optimism grows that the government shutdown may end and exports to China may pick up. Corn gained nearly 3¢ to $4.30, and Chicago wheat rose 8¢ to $5.36. 📊 Traders are eyeing possible yield cuts in Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. 🚢 Export Inspections USDA data showed 1.1mmt of soybeans inspected for export last week—up 11% from the prior week but down 54% from last year. 🇨🇳 China was absent from the market. Corn: 1.4mmt (strong vs. last year) Wheat: 290kmt (weaker week-over-week) 🥩 Tyson Foods Outlook Tyson Foods expects 2026 profits to hold steady despite ongoing beef segment losses from high cattle prices. 🐄 The US cow herd is at a 70-year low, and rebuilding may take until 2028. 🍗 Stronger demand for chicken and processed products is helping offset beef weakness. President Trump recently urged the DOJ to investigate major packers — including Tyson — over alleged price manipulation. 🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Planting Brazil’s soybean planting reached 61%, up 14% from the week prior but behind last year’s 67%. 🌦️ Irregular rainfall continues to slow progress. Corn planting is 72% complete, in line with 2024.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ✅ Today’s Focus: Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend & Inflation Risks 📊 💰 Economic & Policy Updates President Trump announced plans for a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to most Americans. He said the payout would exclude high-income earners and be funded by tariff revenue, which he also pledged to use toward the $37 trillion national debt. Any such payments would likely need congressional approval. Scott Bessent later clarified that support could come in other forms, such as tax cuts. Meanwhile, Trump’s team is pushing for a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage program, both moves viewed as potentially inflationary. 🥩 🐄 Meatpackers Under Fire Trump accused major meatpacking companies of manipulating beef prices and urged the Justice Department to investigate. Beef prices remain high as the US cattle herd sits at its smallest size in 74 years. The Meat Institute defended the industry, citing transparency and oversight, while USDA data shows packers facing steep losses expected to continue into next year. 🍔 🏢 Texas Roadhouse Outlook Texas Roadhouse expects commodity costs to rise 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, driven by higher beef prices. Commodity inflation reached 7.9% in Q3, but the chain offset pressure through 1.7% menu price hikes and strong customer traffic. Same-store sales rose 6.1%, beating forecasts. 🌏 🇨🇳 China Trade Developments China will reinstate soybean import licenses for CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT on Nov. 10, easing tensions after a recent Trump–Xi trade truce. The move follows tariff cuts and limited US grain purchases. Still, traders remain cautious about China’s follow-through on purchase commitments. 🌾 📈 Fund Position Estimates Private data (amid the government shutdown) suggest: Corn: net short 40–60K Soybeans: net long 100–150K SRW Wheat: net short 50–80K Funds were net buyers of 7K soybean contracts last week and ended the week flat in corn. The Senate moved closer to ending the shutdown after a bipartisan vote on Sunday. ⛽ 🧪 Biofuel Waiver Rulings The EPA granted biofuel blending exemptions to HF Sinclair and Phillips 66, while Chevron was denied. The waivers apply to blending obligations from 2021–2023 and were issued for economic hardship. Biofuel producers warned the move could undermine renewable fuel demand and add market uncertainty.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets. 🌾 Soybean Market Drop Soybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉 🇨🇳 China Trade Update COFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers. ⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s Tariffs The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974. 🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Progress Soybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas. 🌧️ US Drought Monitor Recent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA. Corn: 30% Soybeans: 32% Winter Wheat: 38% Spring Wheat: 17% Cattle: 26% 💼 Jobs & Markets Private data showed 153,074 job cuts last month—triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 –1.1%, and the Dow –0.8%. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut. (⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇 🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain Markets Reuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news. 💼 Tariff Rollbacks from Beijing China’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10. That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat. 🌽 Corn Harvest & Yields Corn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa. Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year). Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa. 🍶 Ethanol Sets a New Record U.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever. Stocks: 22.66 million barrels Margins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data) Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices. 🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer Gamble Brazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030. Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk. Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports. 🐄 Cattle Market Meltdown Cattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday. Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic. Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 💰 Farm Aid Update The Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends—reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on the China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework. This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout. Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week. 🏭 ADM Outlook Cut ADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings. CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules—both delayed by the shutdown. ADM's Q3 profit fell ~19%. 💵 King Dollar Flexes Risk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher—four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe havens bid. 🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October. Livestock still outshines crops—cattle profits remain massive. 58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others. Importantly, this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news. 📊 Barometer graphics below. 🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still Closed Sec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle. Screwworm containment is improving, but the USDA is still cautious—price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins. 📏 S&P Global Crop Estimates S&P holding steady: 🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu 🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌎 China’s Soybean Shuffle China booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes—half for December, the rest for March–July—as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again. Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing. US futures rallied anyway—Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July. The rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors. 👀 🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn Hot US soybean inspections: 965K mt—down hard from last week and last year 😬 China is still absent. Corn? 🔥 Big week—1.7 mmt, up sharply vs. last year. Wheat is also stronger YoY. 🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat Again China sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb. Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics. Wheat futures pop—Dec25 closes near $5.44, the best in 3 months. 🌱 Brazil Planting Lags Heat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year. Some replant risk. StoneX tweaks the outlook: • Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt • Second corn crop cut to 107mmt 🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost Wrapped Analysts peg harvest at: • Corn 83% (vs 91% last year) • Soybeans 91% (vs 94%) Dry weather helped. Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown—but WASDE/Prod is still coming Nov 14. 📊 StoneX US Yield Update • Corn: 186 bpa—slight bump • Beans: 53.6 bpa—trimmed US production is essentially steady vs last month.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube 🎙️ Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! 🌾 This week we sit down with USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins for a big-time conversation on the future of American agriculture and global trade. Strap in—this one hits all the hot topics 👇 🇨🇳 US/China “Trade Deal” & Soybean Purchases What does the new agreement really mean for US farmers? Will China step up for big-volume soybean buys again — or is the market over-hyping it? 🌱🚢 🌟 “Golden Era of Agriculture”? President Trump says US agriculture is entering a Golden Era — Brooke breaks down what that means for: Farm income Global demand Export competitiveness Long-term policy vision Is it optimism… or reality coming fast? 💪🌽✨ 💸 Direct Farm Payments & Input Costs We talk: Future support programs Input inflation pressures (seed, fertilizer, fuel) Policy responses to farm margins getting squeezed 🇲🇽 Border, Beef & Feeder Cattle How does the southern border tie into livestock markets? And what’s the real story on: Mexican border flows Feeder cattle prices Beef import potential U.S. herd rebuilding timeline 🐂📈 🏢 USDA Workforce Cuts Yep—layoffs. Why the shake-up, and what farmers should expect going forward.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ✅ Welcome back — today we’re breaking down China’s long-term soybean commitment and what it really means for US farmers. 🌱🇺🇸🇨🇳 🌍 Global Market & Trade 🌐 China agreed to resume long-term US soybean buying under the new Trump-Xi trade truce: 12mmt through January 25mmt annually for 3 years Removal of tariffs on most US ag goods This is below the 29mmt average over the past 5 years—but far better than the “zero-buy” fear. Chinese state media confirmed ag buys — but not the exact volumes Bessent mentioned. ASA reaction: ✅ Positive tone ✅ Relief after stalled demand ✅ Optimism for future growth Also—both countries will pause vessel fees for 12 months, easing $3.2B in shipping pressure. Soybeans rallied on the announcement 👇 Jan26: +13¢ to ~$11.08/bu Corn slipped lower Dec25: down ~4¢ to ~$4.30 No corn commitments in this agreement + USDA reports paused by shutdown = headwinds Wheat lower Dec Chicago: -8¢ near $5.24 📝 Key Takeaway This deal is not a blockbuster, but it does restore baseline demand and boosts confidence after months of uncertainty. Markets like it. Farmers like it. And it beats the alternative. ✔️ 🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions US drought conditions were mostly steady this week. Some relief in parts of KY/OH/MI, but dryness worsened in IA & IL. High Plains remains least impacted; mixed changes in the Dakotas & the Southern Plains. Corn impacted by drought: 30% Soybeans: 34% Winter wheat: 40% Cattle areas in drought: 26%

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌦️ Macro & Policy President Trump says talks with Xi were “12 out of 10” and announced tariff cuts tied to fentanyl cooperation. China says they reached consensus on fentanyl and agricultural trade, but no actual volume numbers yet. Trump jumped on Truth Social claiming China will buy “massive amounts” of U.S. farm goods — and even told farmers to go buy more land and bigger tractors 🚜😂 Policy headline? ✅ Actual commitments? 🤷‍♂️ 🌾 Grains & China Buying COFCO reportedly bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, but markets barely moved. Traders want to see follow-through, not headlines. Soybean bulls: 🤝 Hope & prayer Futures: 🥱 Neutral to slightly lower Until we see more sales, the market remains cautious. 🐄 Cattle & Border News U.S.–Mexico border stays closed to feeder cattle as officials work to eradicate the screwworm outbreak. $21M U.S. investment in sterile fly program No timeline for reopening Cattle futures liked the news — big rally Wednesday. ⛽ Ethanol Update Ethanol output dipped slightly on the week but remains strong vs last year, with margins running 10–40¢ positive across the Corn Belt. Stocks rose slightly. Margins holding firm = supportive for corn demand. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook Rabobank expects a record Brazilian soybean crush and higher acreage, but stable exports. Corn acreage is up too—but production is seen down ~3.5%. Brazil keeps expanding. No surprise 😬🌎🌱 💵 Interest Rates & Macro The Fed cut rates again—the second time this year—taking the benchmark to 3.75%–4%. Powell pushing back on a “cut every meeting” approach. Markets now see a 67% chance of another cut in December (down from ~90%). The government shutdown still limiting data flow—fun times 🙃

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China Buys U.S. Soybeans for the First Time This Marketing Year 🌦 Market Highlights China has purchased U.S. soybeans for the first time this marketing year. Reuters reports that state-owned COFCO bought three cargoes (≈180,000 mt / 6.6 mil bu) for Dec–Jan shipment ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. U.S. beans remain about 50¢/bu cheaper than Brazilian beans for November export. 🌾 Futures Action Soybean futures hit their highest level in over a year Tuesday. The Jan 26 contract reached $11.00 before easing to around $10.95 on profit-taking and increased farmer selling. Corn and wheat also advanced—Dec 25 corn closed near $4.32/bu, its best since early July. 🏛 Washington Watch The U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on seed and fertilizer market concentration. Four companies now control 80% of corn seed and 75% of soybean seed sales. The American Soybean Association warned that farmers face mounting pressure as production costs surge and prices fall—soybean producers could see net losses of $109/acre this year. 🤝 Global Trade & Policy The U.S. and Japan signed two agreements Tuesday—one strengthening the alliance, another on rare-earth supply chains. Despite the fanfare, key trade gaps remain. Japan already imports roughly $12 billion in U.S. ag products annually, including corn, beef, pork, and soybeans, suggesting its new $8 billion annual commitment likely reflects normal volumes. 🐄 Livestock Pressure Feeder cattle futures fell sharply again as President Trump vowed to lower beef prices. Since his Argentine beef import proposal, feeder cattle have dropped nearly $50/cwt amid speculation of resumed Mexican imports and tariff cuts on Brazilian beef. 🌽 Ethanol & Energy India continues to block U.S. ethanol imports despite U.S. pressure in ongoing trade talks. India blends about 2.6 billion gal/year of ethanol domestically and protects its farmers’ $13 billion in feedstock income—making ethanol policy a major sticking point.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Welcome to today’s grain market update! Soybean futures surged to their highest level since June as optimism grows that China may resume U.S. soybean purchases following President Trump’s comments on a potential trade deal with President Xi. 🌤️ Weather & Harvest Progress Corn and soybean harvests are nearly wrapped up across the U.S. Analysts estimate the corn harvest at 72% complete and soybeans at 84%, both slightly behind last year’s record pace. Rain slowed progress in parts of the Corn Belt, but steady combining continues elsewhere. With the government still shut down, no official Crop Production or WASDE report is expected on November 10th. 🌎 Global Market Trends Brazilian planting is racing ahead — 36% of soybeans and 55% of first-crop corn are in the ground, matching last year’s pace. Conab pegs Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.6mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn output at 138.6mmt (-1.8% YoY).  🚢 Export & Shipment Data U.S. soybean inspections were disappointing at 1.1mmt — the weakest seasonal figure since 2011/12. Corn shipments were 1.2mmt, and wheat came in light at just 258kmt. Top soybean destinations included Indonesia, Israel, and Italy. 🐂 Livestock & Policy Watch Cattle markets were hammered again Monday. Feeder cattle contracts hit expanded limits, and live cattle dropped sharply amid news of expanded Argentine beef imports and possible Mexican feeder cattle inflows. A Trump–Brazil meeting also hinted at renewed Brazilian beef trade.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks US and Chinese leaders made progress on a trade deal during meetings in Malaysia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Chinese goods is now off the table. He also hinted at an agreement that would extend the current tariff truce and defer China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. China is expected to make substantial purchases of US soybeans, though details on volumes and timing are still unclear. The talks set the stage for a meeting later this week between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, where a final deal could be announced. 🌾 Ag Markets: Soybeans, Corn & Wheat Soybean futures gapped higher overnight. The Jan ’26 contract trades at its best level since late August, while the spot Nov ’25 contract is at its highest since July 2024. Corn and wheat futures are also trading higher, supported by optimism over renewed Chinese demand and improved export prospects. 🔍 Phase One Review The US has launched an investigation into China’s compliance with the 2020 Phase One trade deal. That agreement required China to significantly boost imports of US farm goods, especially soybeans. China committed to an average of $40 billion per year over two years but reached only about 77% of the target. A public hearing is scheduled for December 16, and the probe could lead to new tariffs if violations are found. 🐄 Cattle & Beef Markets Cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with many contracts hitting their daily limit down. The selloff was triggered by reports that US and Mexican officials will meet to discuss reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. Traders are also reacting to plans by the Trump administration to lower domestic beef prices by allowing more Argentine beef imports. The uncertainty has caused speculators to unwind large net long positions in the cattle market. 💸 Inflation & Markets Inflation came in slightly cooler than expected in September. The CPI rose 0.3% for the month and 3.0% from a year ago. Gasoline prices were up 4.1% for the month and accounted for much of the gain. The softer inflation report boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting this week. 📈 Stock Market Rally Stocks rallied to record highs on Friday. The Dow Jones topped 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged strong weekly gains. The market optimism is driven by easing inflation and growing confidence that interest rate cuts are on the way.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans & Corn Soybean and corn futures advanced on Thursday. The Nov25 soybean contract rose 10¢ to about $10.45/bu, its highest level in more than a month. Support came from surging oil prices, optimism over a potential US–China trade deal, and strong crush margins. The Dec25 corn contract gained 5¢ to $4.28/bu, boosted by strong export demand, firmer basis bids, and limited farmer selling. Rumors swirled of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and wheat—US beans remain 64¢ cheaper than Brazil’s on a global basis. 🌏 Trump–Xi Trade Talks President Trump and President Xi will meet next Thursday in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. The talks follow Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods after Beijing’s new rare earth restrictions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meeting with Chinese negotiators in Malaysia this weekend to prepare the groundwork. 🛢️ Oil & Sanctions The US blacklisted two Russian oil firms, pressuring China to curb Russian crude imports—which make up roughly 20% of its supply. Companies that ignore sanctions risk losing access to global financial systems. Oil prices jumped 5.6%, with WTI crude at $61.75/bbl. 🥩 Argentine Beef Imports The US will quadruple beef imports from Argentina, raising the tariff quota to 80,000mt (176M lbs). Critics say it hurts US ranchers and won’t meaningfully lower prices—the increase equals just 0.8% of annual consumption. 🇺🇸 US beef consumption ≈ 28.6B lbs 🇦🇷 Annual beef imports ≈ 5B+ lbs 🐄 US–Mexico Border Talks Talks resume next week to reopen the border for Mexican feeder cattle. The closure since May, due to a New World screwworm outbreak, has reduced US feedlot placements by ~500,000 head over three months. 🌤️ US Drought Update (USDA Monitor) Drought conditions were mostly steady last week. ✅ Improvement: Southern IL, Western KY ❌ Worsening: NE Iowa, Eastern IL, Central OK US Areas Experiencing Drought 🌽 Corn – 32% 🌱 Soybeans – 39% 🌾 Winter Wheat – 43% 🌾 Spring Wheat – 16% 🐄 Cattle – 27% 💬 Stay Informed Subscribe for daily updates, and let me know your thoughts in the comments. Your engagement keeps this independent channel going!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Today’s Focus: Trump vs. Ranchers, China’s Crop Damage, and U.S.–China Trade Tensions 🇺🇸🌾 🐄 Trump Attacks U.S. Ranchers President Trump took aim at U.S. cattle ranchers Wednesday, criticizing their pushback against his plan to lower domestic beef prices. He claimed ranchers owe their success to his tariff policies and suggested they’d be struggling without him. The remarks followed his recent move to boost Argentine beef imports — a decision that sent cattle futures plunging. Live cattle dropped more than $7/cwt, while feeder cattle hit their daily limit, down $9.25/cwt. See Trump’s Truth Social posts below. 🌧️ China’s Corn Crop in Trouble Heavy rain is hammering northern China’s corn belt — the wettest stretch in 60 years — leaving millions of acres unharvested and some crops rotting. Imports are down 93% from last year as China leans on domestic supply, but the losses could tighten stocks. USDA pegs China’s corn reserves at 193 mmt, roughly 45% of this year’s U.S. crop. Corn harvest is likely about 75% complete. Six key provinces, accounting for nearly 40% of production, have faced excessive rain in recent weeks.  🤝 U.S.–China Trade Talks U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Malaysia this weekend ahead of a potential Trump–Xi summit in South Korea. The U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports beginning November 1 if no agreement is reached. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is leading the delegation in ongoing talks through Sunday. Soybean purchases and rare earth mineral restrictions remain key flashpoints. 💻 New Export Controls? The Trump administration is weighing fresh export restrictions on critical U.S. software to China, mirroring measures once aimed at Russia. The plan may involve coordination with G-7 allies but remains preliminary. It follows China’s new port fees on U.S. vessels and limits on rare earth exports. ⛽ Ethanol Output Near Record U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.11 million barrels per day last week — the second-highest on record. Stocks dropped to a 51-week low near 21.9 million barrels. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid, ranging from +20¢ to +50¢ per gallon.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. ✅ Welcome to today’s update! We’re covering farm aid, trade talks, beef expansion plans, global wheat crops, and precious metals volatility. 🌾 USDA Resumes Farm Aid The Trump administration will restart $3 billion in payments through the Farm Service Agency. All FSA offices reopen Thursday, with ARC/PLC and loan programs resuming after the shutdown pause. Brooke Rollins says additional support for farmers impacted by the US–China trade war will follow soon.  🤝 Trump–Xi Meeting & Soybeans Trump remains optimistic about a meeting with Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea, though the timing isn’t guaranteed. He said, “Maybe it won’t happen… it’s just business.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese officials this weekend to prepare. No new US soybean sales to China have been reported as tensions persist. 🥩 Beef Expansion Plan USDA plans to open more land for cattle production and build new processing plants. Rollins says the move will grow the cowherd and reduce beef prices. The plan follows backlash over increased Argentine beef imports. 🌾 Russia’s Wheat Outlook IKAR raised Russia’s wheat crop forecast slightly to 88 mmt. Exports remain sluggish—down 18% from last year—keeping global wheat prices under pressure.  🥇 Gold & Silver Slide Gold plunged 6.3% to $4,105 and silver 8.3%, marking their steepest drops in years. Analysts see $4,000 as key gold support, with Goldman targeting $4,900 by 2026. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🌎 U.S.–Colombia Tensions Escalate President Trump announced new aid cuts and potential tariffs against Colombia, accusing President Gustavo Petro of failing to curb drug production. Colombia — a longtime U.S. ally — received $230 million in aid last year, down from more than $700 million in earlier years. The country pulled its ambassador from D.C. but has not announced any economic retaliation. Since Colombia accounted for 11% of U.S. corn exports (≈2% of total demand), these tensions could carry real ag-trade implications. 🌽  🇨🇳🚫 China Stops Buying U.S. Soybeans For the first time since 2018, China imported zero U.S. soybeans in September. A year ago, the figure was 1.7 mmt. Meanwhile, Brazil’s shipments to China jumped 30%, and Argentina’s surged 92%. Total Chinese soybean imports hit 12.9 mmt — the second-highest monthly total on record. Without a trade deal, China may face a supply gap early next year before Brazil’s new-crop harvest. 🌱 📦 Weekly Export Inspections USDA reported: • Soybeans – 1.5 mmt (+45% vs week prior) • Corn – 1.3 mmt (+9%) • Wheat – 480,614 mt (+7%) Top soybean destinations: Mexico, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Germany. 🇧🇷🌦️ Brazil Planting Progress AgRural says 24% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted (up from 14% last week and 18% last year). First-crop corn planting is 51% complete. Conab projects soybean output at 177.6 mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn at 138.6 mmt (-1.8% YoY).  🥩 Argentina Beef Imports? Trump says he’s considering increased Argentine beef imports to ease U.S. prices and support Argentina’s economy. But Argentina supplies only 2% of U.S. beef imports — even if the U.S. bought its entire export capacity (770,000 mt), price effects would be minimal. Foot-and-mouth disease risks make this a controversial proposal. 🐄

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚜 ADM Deferred Pricing Offer ADM is now offering deferred pricing at its Decatur, IL facility — a move aimed at jumpstarting soybean deliveries. Farmers can deliver soybeans now, transfer ownership, and set a final price anytime before September 2026. 🟡 No storage fees 🟡 Immediate ADM ownership 🟡 Unusual timing — normally seen after the new year Slow farmer sales due to weak prices are tightening processor supplies, prompting ADM’s rare “free DP” incentive. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Malaysia this week. The session sets the stage for a Trump–Xi meeting later this month. 👉 Trump hinted he’s open to lowering tariffs if China resumes soybean purchases “like before.” 👉 The trade truce expires in November, keeping markets on edge. 🌽🫘 Futures Update Corn and soybeans both ended the week higher: 🌽 Dec ’25 Corn – around $4.23, supported by slow sales and lower yields 🫘 Nov ’25 Soybeans – near $10.20, boosted by domestic demand and trade optimism Overnight gains continued after Trump’s weekend remarks. 🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Progress Brazilian soybean planting is racing ahead — 23% complete vs. 9% last year. 🌧️ Well-distributed rain + warm temps are ideal. 📊 Conab projects 177.7 MMT, while USDA is at 175 MMT. 🐄 Cattle Market Moves Cattle futures tumbled Friday after Trump hinted at potential steps to lower beef prices. 💬 Analyst Brad Kooima says inflation-adjusted prices remain stable, but political pressure could spark a Brazil beef import deal, worrying U.S. producers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Corn Market Turns Higher Corn and soybean futures advanced Thursday, supported by smaller-than-expected yields and harvest delays from upcoming rains. Dec ’25 corn added 5¢ to $4.22 while Nov ’25 soybeans climbed 4¢ to $10.11. Strong domestic crush demand and tighter spreads helped fuel optimism. Corn calendar spreads have rallied sharply—slow farmer selling and steady ethanol demand likely helped. 📈 🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Dilemma High Brazilian premiums ($2.80–$2.90 over futures) may force China to tap its state reserves as crush margins remain negative. With 43.5 mmt of soybeans in storage—the largest on record—China has room to draw down stocks as it battles through the trade war. 🐄 Cattle Prices Hit New Highs Live cattle surged to record levels, driven by tight supplies and border closures to Mexican cattle imports. Fat cattle traded $240/cwt in parts of the Midwest. The Trump administration says it’s working to lower beef prices, possibly through new import deals. ⛽ Ethanol Stays Strong US ethanol production rose to 1.07 million bpd last week while stocks fell slightly. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid—between 20–50¢ positive, according to Reuters. 🏈 CME Launches “Prediction Futures” CME Group plans to roll out new contracts linked to sports and economic outcomes, partnering with FanDuel. These products could shake up prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. 🌦️ Drought Update USDA data shows 38% of the Corn Belt still under drought, though that’s improved from last year’s 53%. The worst areas remain in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and South Dakota.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Farm Bailout on Hold A “clever and generous” farm aid package is ready to launch once the government shutdown ends. Kevin Hassett says it was supposed to drop by Oct. 7 but got delayed. Reports point to at least $10 billion — likely funded by tariff revenue — to offset weak exports and global oversupply. Polymarket bettors see a 33% chance the shutdown lasts past Nov. 16. 💸 U.S. Support for Argentina The Treasury plans another $20 billion to stabilize Argentina’s economy — on top of last week’s swap line. Scott Bessent says funding is policy-linked, not political. Some reports hint the U.S. has already bought Argentine pesos, implying exposure to currency risk. 🌱 NOPA September Crush The September soybean crush hit 197.86 million bushels — the fourth-highest on record and 11.6% above last year. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.24 billion pounds, the lowest since Dec 2024 and below trade expectations.  🇨🇳 Trade War Confusion Trump confirmed the U.S. is “in a trade war with China,” even as Bessent floated extending the current truce if China halts rare-earth export controls. Talks with South Korea, Canada & India continue, and Trump is still set to meet Xi in South Korea later this month. 🚢 Mississippi River Crisis Low water levels for the fourth straight year are tightening grain transport south of St. Louis. Rates are rising and efficiency is dropping just as soybean exports face trade-war headwinds.  💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines? 📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes. 🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸 Trump Eyes Cooking Oil Embargo Against China President Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo targeting China 🇨🇳. The move follows Beijing’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans—which Trump called an “economically hostile act.” 🛢️ Biofuels & UCO Trade Shift Chinese used cooking oil (UCO) exports hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. buying 1.3 MMT—43% of total exports. But those imports have likely plunged this year since biofuel tax incentives for imported UCO were eliminated. Trump says the U.S. can produce its own cooking oil supply. 🌱 Soybean Market Update Soybean futures ticked slightly lower Tuesday despite strong export inspections — 994,000 MT last week, the best since February. Top buyers: Mexico, Spain & Bangladesh. Corn and wheat shipments were mixed as traders remain cautious with the USDA data delay during the government shutdown. 🚢 Port Fees & Trade Tensions Trump’s new U.S. port fees are adding pressure to Chinese shipping companies like COSCO & OOCL. China has retaliated with special vessel fees on certain U.S. ships. 👉 Note: Most grain shipments are exempt thanks to strong farm-group pushback. 🌎 Brazil Crop Outlook 🇧🇷 Conab projects record soybean output at 177.6 MMT, up 3.5% YoY, with exports near 112 MMT. Corn output seen at 138.6 MMT, with exports of 46.5 MMT (+16%). 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines? 📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes. 🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US-China Meeting Still On President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still expected to meet in South Korea at the end of the month to discuss trade. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the plans on Monday, easing fears the meeting might be canceled after a tense weekend. The news helped stocks rebound after Friday’s sell-off. Bessent said the two sides held extensive talks over the weekend and will continue discussions this week in Washington during the World Bank and IMF meetings. China’s commerce ministry reiterated it remains open to dialogue but warned the US against making threats while seeking talks. 🌽🌱 US Harvest Progress Slows The US corn and soybean harvests are trailing last year’s pace. A Reuters poll showed corn harvest at 44% complete and soybeans at 58%, both slightly behind 2023 levels. Analysts attribute the lag to slower crop dry-down. Normally, USDA reports would confirm progress, but updates are paused due to the ongoing government shutdown. 💵📈 Dollar Rebounds Amid Trade Hopes The US dollar climbed Monday on optimism about a potential trade deal with China, brushing off Trump’s latest tariff threats. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, while the yen and euro weakened. Despite Friday’s market tumble, comments from Trump and Vice President JD Vance suggested openness to more talks, helping restore confidence in US markets. 🚜📊 Tractor Sales Finally Rise US tractor sales increased 4.1% in September—the first gain in over a year. The modest rebound offers hope for the struggling farm machinery sector, though combine sales plunged 22%. Manufacturers like John Deere expect 2025 to mark the low point for sales, with recovery likely next year. 🌎🌾 China’s Soybean Imports Hit Record Levels China imported 12.9mmt of soybeans in September, the second-highest monthly total ever and the fifth straight record. Year-to-date imports are up 5.3% from last year, driven by strong demand and higher purchases from Argentina and Brazil. China hasn’t yet bought US soybeans this season, and renewed trade tensions are casting doubt on a Trump-Xi meeting to discuss the issue. 🇧🇷🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Accelerates Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly—14% complete as of last week, the third-fastest pace on record. AgRural reports rapid progress despite uneven weather, with Conab projecting a 177.7mmt crop. Brazil’s first corn crop is 45% planted, slightly ahead of last year’s pace. 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines? 📈 Subscribe to stay ahead of every major ag, trade, and market update—all in under 5 minutes. 🧠 Stay informed. Stay independent.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🚨 U.S.–China Trade Tensions Flare Again Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated sharply. On Friday, President Trump announced plans to impose new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, raising total tariffs on many goods to 130%. The move follows China’s announcement of its own export controls, set to begin the same day. The back-and-forth has cast doubt on a potential Trump–Xi meeting later this month. Trump’s follow-up post on Sunday struck a softer tone, helping markets recover part of Friday’s losses. See both Truth Social posts below. 🌾 Soybeans & Ag Markets Soybean futures tumbled on Friday as trade tensions intensified. November ’25 soybeans fell 16¢ to around $10.07/bu after China announced new export restrictions and retaliatory port fees. The measures would target rare earth minerals and U.S.-linked vessels. Trump responded that there was “no reason” to meet with Xi and reaffirmed tariff threats. Hopes for a renewed Chinese purchase program have faded, though the U.S. is now exploring alternative export markets and domestic soybean uses. 📉 Stocks & Crude Oil Reaction The S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, Dow −1.9%, and Nasdaq −3.6% Friday—Wall Street’s worst day since April. The sell-off followed Trump’s tariff announcement and China’s rare-earth retaliation. Oil prices also slid, with WTI crude dipping below $59/bbl, the lowest since May. Despite the sharp move, equities remain near record highs after a months-long rally. Early Monday, futures rebounded following Trump’s more conciliatory weekend tone. 💥 Crypto Market Meltdown The tariff shock triggered the largest crypto liquidation in history—nearly 1.6 million traders liquidated, totaling $19 billion+, with some estimates as high as $400 billion in wiped-out value. Bitcoin plunged 12%, from over $125k to under $113k. Analysts now eye $100k as key support. Excessive leverage across crypto markets amplified the crash—“altcoins” were hit hardest. See Charlie Munger’s quote below on the dangers of leverage. 🌦️ U.S. Weather & Harvest Progress Weekend rainfall was light across much of the Corn Belt, with heavier totals in central/northern Missouri. Limited rains also reached the Dakotas and Minnesota. Based on prior USDA data (as of Sept 29: corn 18% harvested, soybeans 19%), harvest is likely near 50% complete. With the government shutdown, no new Crop Progress report will be released today.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 Trump Eyes Soybean Revival President Trump says he’s confident China will resume buying U.S. soybeans 🌱. He plans to pressure Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month to restart imports. A new farm aid package was expected this week to offset trade war losses, but the government shutdown ⛔ has delayed it. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says once the government reopens, a “significant” support program will roll out. Trump warned that if talks fail, the U.S. could restrict exports to China—or block Chinese imports entirely. ⚖️ 📉 Markets in the Dark The shutdown has blinded grain markets. With the USDA halting major reports—including export sales, crop progress, and WASDE—market transparency has vanished. Analysts say the lack of data is fueling uncertainty during harvest. 🌾 Big players like Cargill and ADM still have their own numbers, but smaller traders are left guessing. Many expect market corrections once the reports resume. 🔥 Heat and Drought Deepen USDA’s latest drought monitor shows hot, dry weather worsening conditions across the Corn Belt. 🌡️ Drought expanded in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Missouri, while only parts of Iowa saw slight improvement. The High Plains also stayed dry, with more drought creeping into South Dakota, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Areas in Drought: 🌽 Corn – 31% 🫘 Soybeans – 39% 🌾 Winter Wheat – 45% 🌱 Spring Wheat – 16% 🐄 Cattle – 25% 💵 U.S. Backs Argentina’s Economy The U.S. has launched a $20 billion financial rescue plan for Argentina, including a currency swap and direct peso purchases 🇦🇷. Some call the move risky, citing Argentina’s default history. U.S. farmers aren’t thrilled either—Argentina’s boosted soybean sales to China have cut into American export opportunities. 😒 🌻 Russia Cuts Wheat Plantings Russian farmers plan to reduce wheat acreage by 6%, shifting to oilseeds instead. Poor profits, high export duties, and drought are driving the change. Russia expects to harvest about 88 million metric tons, but global oversupply keeps wheat prices near five-year lows. 📉 🤝 U.S.–India Talks Gain Ground Trade talks between the U.S. and India are showing progress 🇮🇳. Modi and Trump discussed recent breakthroughs, and another round is coming soon. The U.S. wants India to stop buying Russian oil, while India offered to import U.S. corn for ethanol as a concession. India produces 2.5B gallons of ethanol yearly—far below the U.S.’s 17B gallons. 🌽⚗️ Stay informed! 📈 Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on the latest news—let’s discuss!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China Fuels Brazil’s Soybean Boom China’s surging demand is driving Brazilian soybean exports to record highs. 🌱 Brazil is on pace to ship 102.2 MMT by the end of October, surpassing last year’s record. Nearly 80% of those exports are headed to China, as the country turns away from U.S. soybeans amid the ongoing trade war. With a bumper harvest, exports could reach 110 MMT for the full year. 🌾 U.S. Farmers Face a Soybean Storage Squeeze A rapid harvest and weak Chinese demand have U.S. farmers running out of space. 🚜 Many face tough choices — piling soybeans on the ground under tarps or selling at steep discounts. In North Dakota, this year’s crop is expected to exceed storage by 33%, with surpluses of 26% in South Dakota and 15% in Nebraska. 🛢️ Oil Slips as Tensions Ease and Supplies Build Oil prices fell Wednesday as easing Middle East tensions and rising U.S. inventories weighed on the market. Brent dipped below $66, and WTI slid to $61.50 per barrel. President Trump announced a Gaza hostage-release deal, while U.S. crude stockpiles rose for a second week. Analysts expect a market surplus soon, with Goldman Sachs projecting Brent to average $56 next year. 🍶 U.S. Ethanol Output Hits Seasonal High Ethanol production jumped 7.6% week-over-week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the highest this season. Stocks fell slightly to 22.7 million barrels, while margins across the Corn Belt remain positive—ranging from 20¢ to 45¢ per gallon. 💪 💸 Fed Split on Path for Rate Cuts Federal Reserve minutes revealed most policymakers expect more rate cuts this year, but opinions remain divided. 📉 Inflation is still sticky even as the labor market cools. The median forecast calls for two more quarter-point cuts by year-end, though some members see fewer. Markets are betting on cuts in October and December. 🥇 Precious Metals Hit Record Highs Gold and silver soared Wednesday on safe-haven demand. 💰 Gold broke above $4,000/oz, and silver hit $49.57/oz—both all-time highs. The rallies were fueled by geopolitical risks, rate-cut expectations, and the U.S. government shutdown. Goldman Sachs now sees gold climbing to $4,900 by the end of 2026, with prices up 50% this year. 📈 Stay Informed Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on the latest news—let’s discuss!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇺🇸 US Farmer Sentiment US farmer sentiment was mostly steady in September. Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index ticked up slightly to 126, just one point above August. About 71% of farmers believe the US is headed in the right direction. Confidence in tariffs, however, has declined. Only 51% of respondents expect tariffs to benefit agriculture long-term, down from 63% in June and 70% earlier this year. Many farmers are counting on government support to help offset trade pressures, with 83% expecting a program similar to the 2019 MFP if the trade war continues. 🌽💵 📊 USDA Reports Delayed The USDA won’t release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report due to the ongoing government shutdown. Reuters shared analysts’ expectations: US corn yield and production are expected to drop ~1%, while soybeans show little change. Corn carryout is projected to reach a seven-year high, supported by historically large September 1 stocks. Global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are also expected to rise. 🌍🌾 🚢 Mississippi River Challenges Low water levels on the Mississippi River are causing grain transport issues. Although recent stabilization has allowed barge traffic, levels may drop again as harvest picks up. Higher barge rates are driving up shipping costs, which ultimately affect farmers. Combined with weak commodity prices, this has created record storage deficits across the Corn Belt—the worst since 2016—in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. 🛶📈 🇦🇷 Argentina Oilseed Strike Argentine oilseed workers began an indefinite strike over wage disputes, supported by multiple industry groups. The labor ministry has called a 15-day conciliation period, halting strike actions temporarily. This comes shortly after a brief pause on export taxes for many agricultural products. ⚖️✊ 🏛️ US Government Shutdown The US government shutdown entered its eighth day with no end in sight. President Trump warned that furloughed workers might not receive back pay, seen as pressure on lawmakers. The Senate will vote on competing funding bills after both failed to reach 60 votes on Monday. The administration also cautioned that prolonged shutdowns could lead to permanent layoffs rather than temporary furloughs. ⏳📉 📈 Stay Informed Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on the latest news—let’s discuss!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 💰 US Farm Aid Update The Trump administration is set to announce a $10–15 billion farm aid package this week to help farmers hit by the trade war. 🌽🇺🇸 The ongoing government shutdown could make approval tricky, and existing funds may not be enough to cover the full payout. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the package would be unveiled soon. During Trump’s first term, over $23 billion was provided to offset trade losses, and even without the new aid, U.S. farmers are already set to receive more than $40 billion this year. 📈 📊 US Crop Progress The USDA’s weekly crop report wasn’t released on Monday due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate the corn harvest is about 30% complete, up from 18% last week, while the soybean harvest is around 35%, compared with 19% a week earlier. Dry conditions last week helped farmers wrap up soybeans and move on to corn. This week’s forecast calls for mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt, except in Ohio and Kentucky, where significant rainfall is expected. Temperatures are projected to stay above average. 🌽🌱 🚢 US Exports US corn shipments reached 1.6 MMT (63M bushels) for the week ending October 2, hitting a marketing-year high and up 69% from last year. Soybean exports totaled 768,117 MT (28M bushels), up 26% from last week but down 53% from the same week last year, highlighting the absence of Chinese purchases. Wheat shipments came in at 505,096 MT (19M bushels), down 43% from the prior week but 38% above last year. 📦 🌱 Brazilian Planting Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly. AgRural reports 9% of the crop planted as of last Thursday, up from 3% the previous week and 4% last year—the second-fastest pace on record for this date. Brazil’s first corn crop is 40% planted, compared with 37% last year, marking the fastest start since 2012/2013. 🇧🇷🌾 🤝 US-Brazil trade tensions may be easing After a 30-minute call on Monday, President Trump and Brazilian President Lula da Silva agreed to meet soon. Discussions focused on economic relations, with Lula requesting the removal of US tariffs on Brazilian goods and sanctions on top officials. US tariffs, including a 50% levy, have hit key exports like coffee (down 70% to the US) and beef. ☕🥩 🐄 New World Screwworm Alert A new case of New World screwworm was confirmed about 170 miles south of the US-Mexico border in Nuevo León, marking the state’s second detection in two weeks. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the case is isolated and unrelated to the previous one. The news has supported cattle futures, as the border is expected to remain closed, keeping feeder cattle supplies tight. 📈 Stay Informed Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss f

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Farm Bankruptcies 2:14 Bessent, Trade Talks, Farm Bailout 5:16 "Debasement Trade" 8:39 Brazil Update 9:47 Shutdown, Rollins Interview 🌾 Farm Bankruptcies Rising Farm bankruptcies have increased this year—93 filings in Q2, up from 88 in Q1 and 47 in Q4 2024. Although still low by historical standards, the trend has been upward since 2022. Corn prices have fallen roughly 50% and soybeans 40% since then, reflecting the broader ag downturn. High input costs, weak markets, and limited exports have all played a role. While USDA projects higher farm income this year, about three-quarters of the growth is expected to come from government payments. The first chart below (from Fortune Magazine) shows current bankruptcy trends, and the second chart extends back to 1986. Prior data isn’t available because Chapter 12 didn’t exist until 1986—a response to the 1980s farm crisis, when 200,000–300,000farms went under. 🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the next round of U.S.–China negotiations—set for later this month in South Korea—could produce a breakthrough. President Trump and President Xi are expected to discuss soybean trade and ag exports. China has shifted more soybean purchases to South America amid the trade war, but Trump is expected to announce a new aid package for farmers this week to offset the impact. 💰 Bitcoin Breaks New Record Bitcoin hit a record high of $125,689 on Sunday, surpassing its August peak. Equities strength and ETF inflows helped fuel the rally, while the government shutdown sparked safe-haven buying in what investors call a “debasement trade.” Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin—up in 9 of the past 10 years—and it’s now +31% YTD. 🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Brazilian soybean planting is off to a fast start—9.2% complete vs. 2.3% a year ago, per Patria Agronegocios. Consistent rainfall has helped, and farmers are expected to plant around 120 million acres this season. While Brazil has been slightly drier than normal lately, above-normal rainfall is forecast for the next two weeks—critical for strong emergence. 🏛 Government Shutdown Update The shutdown continues after the Senate failed to pass either party’s funding bill on Friday. Roughly half of USDA employees are furloughed, disrupting data collection and delaying key reports, including Export Sales and CFTC’s Commitment of Traders. The October 9 Crop Production and WASDE reports will likely be postponed. US Ag Secretary Rollins will not be available for our scheduled interview until the shutdown ends. 📈 Stay Informed Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don’t miss future updates. Drop a comment below with your thoughts on farm bankruptcies and the U.S.–China trade talks—let’s discuss!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Brian's 'Stache 0:40 Another Farm Bailout 7:35 Argentina Update 9:36 Corteva Split 11:34 Soybean/Corn Rally 15:54 Yield Estimates 17:17 Drought Update 💰 Trump’s New Farmer Aid Plan President Trump is weighing a $10–$14 billion bailout for US farmers, likely funded by tariff revenues. Payments could start in the coming months, with soybean producers as the main beneficiaries since they’re expected to lose about $100 per acre this year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says details may be announced as soon as Tuesday. For comparison, the 2018–2020 MFP program totaled $23 billion, with soybeans seeing the largest support ($1.65–$2.05/bu). Rough math suggests something around $10 billion could be realistic this time. 🌍 US–China Soybean Trade & Argentina Tensions Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping later this month to push for more Chinese soybean purchases. Any deal could affect the size of the aid program. Meanwhile, the US confirmed support for Argentina via a $20 billion swap line, not direct investment. Farmers are frustrated, as Argentina has recently undercut the US with large soybean sales to China. 🌱 Corteva Breakup News Corteva will split into two separate companies: Seed unit → expanding beyond corn and soybeans into cotton and wheat. Pesticide unit → focusing on cost-cutting as Chinese generics gain ground. The move is planned for the second half of next year, but shares are already down 15% since September. 📈 Soybean Futures Rally Soybean futures gained for the second straight day, with the Nov25 contract up nearly 11 cents Thursday, adding to Wednesday’s rally. Optimism is tied directly to Trump’s announcement about the Xi meeting. 🌽 Crop Outlook Cuts S&P Global cut its forecasts: Corn yield → 185.5 bpa (down from 189.1) Corn production → 16.71 bil bu (vs. 16.77) Soybean yield → 53 bpa (vs. 53.8) Soybean production → 4.26 bil bu (vs. 4.31) 🔥 USDA Drought Monitor Update Improved moisture helped Ohio, Kentucky, and parts of Indiana, but conditions worsened in Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. Current US drought coverage: Corn → 28% Soybeans → 37% Winter Wheat → 45% Spring Wheat → 13% Cattle → 24% 👉 Stay tuned—the coming days could bring big announcements on farm aid and trade. Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments so we can talk through it together.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 Trump vs. Xi on Soybeans President Trump announced he’ll confront China’s Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC summit over Beijing’s refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans. The news sent soybean futures sharply higher—the biggest move since late August—before paring gains. Trump also floated a plan to use tariff revenues to fund fresh farmer aid, though the legality remains in question. Meanwhile, the U.S.–China tariff truce expires in November, and China has yet to book any new-crop U.S. soybeans. 📉 USDA Report Suspended The October 9th WASDE and Crop Production reports are unlikely amid the government shutdown. USDA’s site confirms the reports are suspended until further notice, leaving traders without official supply, demand, and yield estimates during a critical time. 💵 Dollar Drops Again The U.S. dollar weakened for the 4th straight session, its longest losing streak in a month, following soft payroll data and the shutdown. Perhaps most important to ag markets: the U.S. dollar has lost nearly 14% vs. the Brazilian real this year—keeping soybeans supported above $10. 🌽 StoneX Crop Update U.S. corn yield cut to 185.9 bpa, but production still raised to 16.74B bu due to higher acreage. Soybean yield boosted to 53.9 bpa, production raised to 4.33B bu. Brazil’s soybean crop pegged at 178.6 mmt, up 5% from last year with record acreage. 🍺 Ethanol Output Slips U.S. ethanol production fell for the third straight week to 1.0M bpd. Stocks also declined, though margins remain strong across the Corn Belt at 20–60 cents positive. ✅ Stay Informed Markets are moving fast—don’t miss critical updates! 👉 Subscribe, drop a comment with your thoughts, and share this with a fellow farmer.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Leaked Texts, Argy, Soybeans 4:02 Grain Stocks 9:12 Govt Shutdown and Markets 10:39 River Levels 🇦🇷 Trump & Milei Meeting President Trump will meet Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14. Milei is seeking a $20B US credit swap to shore up Argentina’s dollar reserves. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed negotiations are underway, but leaked texts suggest frustration — Argentina suspended grain export taxes, sold soybeans to China, and critics say US farmers are footing the bill. 📉 🌽 Corn Stocks Report USDA pegged Sept 1 corn stocks at 1.53B bu — down 13% YoY, but 15% above trade expectations. Dec25 corn fell 6¢ to $4.16, its lowest in a month. USDA also revised the 2024 corn crop +25M bu on higher harvested acres. 🌱 Soybeans & Wheat Soy stocks came in a bit light, yet Nov25 beans still dropped 9¢ to $10.02 on weak export demand. Wheat futures fell as stocks topped both last year and expectations. USDA projects total wheat output at 1.98B bu, with winter wheat up 3% and spring wheat down 9%. 🌾 🏛️ Partial USDA Shutdown A government shutdown is underway — essential functions continue but most reporting halts. It’s unclear if today’s EIA report, tomorrow’s export sales, or Friday’s CFTC data will be delayed. Roughly 41% of USDA staff remain on duty. 🚢 Mississippi River Issues Historic low water levels — for the 4th year in a row — are disrupting grain shipments. Southbound flows are down 79% in a month. Draft restrictions and tow limits cut capacity, barge freight rates are climbing, and basis levels are under pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 What Will Taiwan Buy? 3:20 Grain Stocks Report Today 4:33 Harvest Update 8:24 Soybean Shipment Problem 10:25 Better Demand for Russian Wheat 11:40 Flash Sales 🌎 Welcome back! Today’s focus: US–Taiwan trade talks, USDA’s Grain Stocks report, and fresh updates on harvest & exports. 🇹🇼 US–Taiwan Trade Spotlight USDA’s Luke Lindberg is in Taiwan this week for trade negotiations. Meetings include the Agribusiness Trade Mission and a roundtable with US ag reps. Taiwan is the 8th largest market for US ag exports; the US is its top supplier. Taiwan committed to $6.4B in US corn & soybeans over 4 years and $10B in total ag buys—but this is only in line with past purchases (~$3.8B last year). Current tariffs on Taiwanese exports to the US sit at 20%. 📊 Grain Stocks Report (Sept 1) Corn stocks are expected to be down 24% YoY. Soybean stocks are estimated to be down 5.6%. Wheat stocks seen up 2.6%. Traders eye discrepancies between pre-report estimates and USDA’s prior carryout numbers. 🌽 Crop Progress & Conditions Corn: 66% good-to-excellent (best since 2018), 18% harvested (avg: 19%). Soybeans: 62% good-to-excellent, 19% harvested (avg: 20%). Winter Wheat: 34% planted (avg: 36%), the slowest pace since 2016. 🚢 US Export Inspections Corn: 1.5mmt (60M bu) → +10% WoW, +33% YoY. Soybeans: 594k mt (22M bu) → +5% WoW, -13% YoY. Wheat: 739k mt (27M bu) → -21% WoW, +34% YoY. 🌾 Global Wheat Watch Russian wheat export prices rising for 2nd week. Exports down 29% YoY (Jul–Sep). Harvest nearly complete at ~87mmt. Forecast trimmed to 43.4mmt exports. 📢 Flash Sales 135,660mt corn → Mexico. 110,668mt corn → Unknown (2025/26 delivery).

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Mainstream Media and Soybeans 2:52 India Ethanol Possibilities 4:52 China Soy Imports 8:16 The Funds Hate Soybeans 9:12 Grain Stocks Report 10:37 Fast Brazil Soy Planting 📰 Soybean Headlines Everywhere Over just the past 72 hours, mainstream outlets have been buzzing about U.S. soybeans—China’s absence from the U.S. market, farmer struggles, and Trump’s trade war have taken center stage. Coverage may have been sparked by Argentina’s recent “bailout” story and simultaneous soybean sales to China. 🇮🇳 U.S.–India Trade Standoff Talks in Washington were described as “constructive” but ended without a deal. The U.S. wants India to stop buying Russian oil, while India refuses. Instead, India offered concessions like U.S. corn purchases for ethanol. India currently produces about 2.5B gallons of ethanol (mostly from sugarcane byproducts) versus the U.S. at ~17B gallons. With E20 now hit, India could grow to 3.2–3.7B gallons within five years, though its gasoline use is still far below the U.S. 🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Imports USDA’s Beijing attaché holds the import forecast at 106mmt—down slightly from last year. Even though U.S. beans are about 10% cheaper than Brazil’s, tariffs and politics keep them out. China has reportedly even rejected shipments disguised as non-U.S. origin. 📊 Funds Go Net Short CFTC data shows big speculators sold 16k corn contracts, 25k soybeans (swinging back net short), and 11k SRW wheat contracts. This marks the most bearish stance in six weeks. 📈 Grain Stocks Report Ahead USDA will release September 1 stocks on Tuesday. Corn stocks are expected to be down sharply (-24% year-on-year), soybeans down 5.6%, and wheat up 2.6%. Traders are closely watching for differences from USDA’s last carryout estimates. 🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Surge Soybean planting is racing ahead—4.2% complete vs. just 0.5% this time last year. That’s the fastest start ever, supported by steady rains and ideal conditions.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 👨‍🌾 Trump’s Farmer Aid Plan President Trump says tariff revenue will be used to fund a new aid package for farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noted the plan may resemble relief programs from Trump’s first term. Trump admitted farmers face short-term struggles but predicted long-term gains from tariffs. 🚢 China Buys Argentine Soybeans China purchased ~40 cargoes (2.6mmt / 96 mil bu) of soybeans from Argentina in just two days after export taxes were lifted. Most shipments are set for Nov–Dec, when the US typically supplies China. So far, China hasn’t bought a single US soybean this marketing year—last year they bought 22.5mmt. Can other buyers replace lost Chinese demand? ⚖️ DOJ & USDA Investigate Farm Costs The DOJ will team with USDA to review rising input costs like fertilizer and equipment, aiming to protect farmers from unfair pricing. Rollins also clarified there are no plans for beef producer payments, warning that government involvement distorts markets. 📊 Upcoming Grain Stocks Report USDA’s Sept. 1 stocks report is due Tuesday. Estimates suggest corn stocks are down 24% year-over-year, soybeans down 5.6%, and wheat up 2.6%. Traders are watching how estimates compare with USDA’s recent old-crop carryout numbers. 🌍 Export Sales Update Corn: 1.9mmt (76 mil bu), +56% from last week. Mexico led buying. Soybeans: 724,500mt (27 mil bu), -22% from last week. Egypt top buyer. Wheat: 539,800mt (20 mil bu), +43% from last week. Philippines led. 🔥 Drought Conditions Latest USDA drought monitor shows: Corn: 26% affected Soybeans: 37% Winter Wheat: 45% Spring Wheat: 13% Cattle: 24% Drought persists in Missouri, Ohio, and Kentucky, while High Plains states saw improvement. 📢 Flash Sales US exporters sold: 101,400mt soybean meal to Guatemala (2025/26) 312,956mt corn to Mexico (2025/26)

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 "Make Argentina Great Again" 5:30 China Talks Soybeans 6:12 Production Cost Task Force 9:03 Day Trading is Stupid 11:23 Ethanol Production 12:23 Flash Sales 🇺🇸💰 US to Provide $20B Swap Line to Argentina Washington is stepping in with a $20 billion swap line and potential bond purchases to help stabilize Argentina’s peso ahead of midterms. The peso and Argentine markets rallied on the news, but economists warn that true stability will require deeper reforms.  🌾 Argentina Export Taxes Return After just two days, Argentina hit its $7B cap on tax-free grain and soybean exports. The government has now reinstated the suspended export tax. China bought at least 20 cargoes of Argentine soybeans during the window. 🎉 NY Gala & Milei Recognition US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised President Javier Milei at a gala in New York, saying Milei is working to “make Argentina great again.” 🇨🇳 China Pressures US on Tariffs China’s commerce ministry urged the US to drop tariffs if it wants to expand soybean trade. Despite meetings with US Midwest leaders, China has yet to book US beans this marketing year. 🌽 Corn Growers Task Force The National Corn Growers Association launched a task force to address farm profitability and rising costs. Farmers are now facing their third year of negative returns, with a fourth expected in 2026.  📈 Day Trading Rule Change Regulators plan to scrap the $25,000 minimum for pattern day trading. The new intraday margin rule will tie buying power to positions instead. Applies only to equities, not commodities.  🍶 Ethanol Update US ethanol output dropped to 1.02M bpd last week, down 2.9% on the week. Stocks are high, but margins remain positive across the Corn Belt. Charts below. 🚢 USDA Flash Sales Exporters reported fresh sales of soybean meal to Guatemala and corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 China Buys Argentine Soybeans China jumped on Argentina’s suspension of its 26% soybean export tax and purchased 10–15 cargoes for November delivery. Reports now suggest total purchases could be 20 cargoes this week alone. Normally, this business would have gone to the US, but the trade war has shifted flows. Argentina’s crushers warn that local supply is tightening, idle crushing capacity is rising, and jobs are being lost. 📈 Grain Market Reaction Corn futures gained nearly 5 cents with Dec25 closing near $4.26. Soybeans edged higher to $10.12, while both Kansas City and Chicago wheat also finished stronger. Optimism tied to possible US-China trade progress provided a lift. 🤝 US-China Meeting A Chinese trade envoy, Li Chenggang, met with US Midwest leaders in Beijing on Monday. Details are thin, but the meeting was confirmed by China’s Ministry of Commerce. It fueled fresh hopes for trade progress even as China avoids US soybeans. 🇺🇸 Trump’s Ukraine Shift At the UN, Trump surprised leaders by saying Ukraine could win back land from Russia, a reversal from his earlier push for quick peace talks. This marks a potential shift in US policy, signaling stronger backing for Kyiv. 🐂 USDA Cattle Herd Plan The USDA says it will soon launch a plan to help rebuild the US cattle herd, mentioned in a statement on screwworm control. No details yet, but the program could reshape beef supplies and pricing. 🌳 EU Deforestation Law Delay Europe has postponed its anti-deforestation law again. The rules would restrict imports of soybeans, beef, and more. Admin hurdles and IT issues caused the delay, but costs could ripple across the supply chain once implemented. 💵 US Economy Update Fed Chair Powell warned of upside inflation risks and downside jobs risk, leaving October’s rate decision uncertain. Tariffs are pushing prices higher, while labor supply shrinks under tighter immigration enforcement. 🌽 Flash Corn Sale USDA reported a 5 million bushel corn sale to Mexico. Most will ship in 2025/26, with the rest in 2026/27. 👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop your thoughts in the comments. Staying informed helps you stay ahead in these fast-moving markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Argentina News 6:56 Crop Conditions 11:05 Brazil Update 12:04 Grain Shipments 13:00 Cattle Rally 🌎 Argentina Suspends Export Taxes Argentina halted export taxes on corn, soybeans, wheat, and more in a bid to boost sales and stabilize the peso. The suspension runs through October or until $7B in exports are declared. Analysts warn a wave of selling could trigger a supply glut. Argentina is a top corn exporter and the world’s largest shipper of soybean meal and oil. 💵 US Steps In Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is ready to use all necessary measures to help Argentina avoid another financial crisis after a sharp peso sell-off. 🌱 US Crop Conditions & Harvest Corn: 66% good/excellent, the highest since 2018 for this week. 11% harvested. Soybeans: 61% good/excellent, 9% harvested. Winter wheat planting: 20% complete, the slowest since 2021. Spring wheat harvest: 96% complete. 🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update Soybeans: 0.9% planted, matching last year. Projected record 177.7 MMT crop. First corn crop: 25% planted, just behind last year. 🚢 Export Shipments Corn: 1.4 MMT inspected, up 16% vs. last year. Soybeans: 484k MT, sharply lower from last week. Wheat: 854k MT, stronger than expected. 🐂 Cattle Futures Surge A New World screwworm case near the US-Mexico border pushed live and feeder cattle higher, with deferred feeders locking limit-up. Imports from Mexico remain restricted, tightening US supply. 📢 Flash Corn Sale US exporters sold 320k MT of corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Trump/Xi Call 1:59 Tariff Revenue for Farmer Bailout 3:41 H-1B Visa Plan 6:42 2026 Acres 8:20 China Soy Imports 9:59 The Funds 10:47 Flash Sale 11:11 Cattle on Feed 🌎 Trump & Xi Set to Meet President Trump will meet with Xi Jinping on October 31 in South Korea after a two-hour call on Friday. The two leaders discussed trade, fentanyl, and TikTok. Trump called the talks “productive” and plans to visit China early next year. Xi will visit the US later. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic on a trade deal. However, no mention of soybeans hurt US prices Friday, as China has yet to buy any beans this marketing year. 💰 Farm Aid on the Table The administration may use tariff revenue to fund a new bailout for US farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested an announcement could come soon. Direct government payments are already expected to reach a five-year high near $41B. The new package could resemble Trump’s $23B farm aid program from 2019. 🛂 Immigration Overhaul Trump unveiled a sweeping immigration plan, including a $100,000 annual fee for new H-1B visas (up from ~$5,250). Renewals are not affected. The move is meant to encourage hiring of US workers, but critics warn it could hurt smaller firms and AI competitiveness. A new “gold card” residency program will also cost $1M per individual or $2M per business sponsor. Trump claims the measures will generate “hundreds of billions” to reduce debt. This could be significant for farmers relying on H-1B labor. 🌽 Crop Outlook Shifts S&P Global projects corn acres down 4.3% next year to 94.5M, while soybean acres rise 3.6% to 84M. Wheat acres are expected at 44.6M, down 1.8%. Despite S&P’s view, farm budgets and the corn/soybean ratio currently still favor corn. Ag View Solutions estimates 2026 costs: corn at $4.61/bu vs. a $4.60 Dec26 board price; soybeans at $11.66/bu vs. a $10.66 Nov26 price. 🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Appetite China imported a record 10.5mmt of soybeans in August, 85% from Brazil. US soybean exports to China are up 31% YTD, but traders think China is mostly uncovered for Nov–Jan, the key US window. With China using ~11mmt/month, the question is whether they’ll rely on Brazil or risk drawing down stocks. 📊 Money Flow & Sales CFTC data shows funds trimmed net shorts: Corn: net short 81k (smallest since May) Soybeans: net buyers of 14k SRW wheat: net buyers of 7k USDA confirmed a flash sale of 206,460mt corn to unknown buyers.  🐂 Cattle on Feed As of Sept 1: 11.1M head on feed (99% of year ago) Placements: 1.8M (below expectations, -10% y/y) Marketings: 1.6M (-14% y/y) With the cow herd at a 70-year low and no Mexican imports, supplies remain tight—another bullish factor.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌎 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! Today we’re breaking down new US ship fees on Chinese vessels, grain market moves, export sales, and fresh drought data. Let’s dive in 👇 🚢 US Ship Fees & Grain Impact The US will impose new fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships starting October 14. Ships both built and operated by Chinese companies will face the highest costs. Foreign-operated ships built in China will pay lower fees. Bulk carriers like Panamax vessels (65,000–80,000 DWT)—which move most grain exports—are exempt, after pushback from farm groups earlier this year. 👉 Grain exports are unlikely to see major disruption. 📉 Grain Futures Corn (Dec25) slipped to $4.24/bu. Soybeans (Nov25) dropped to $10.38/bu. Wheat followed lower. Weakness tied to harvest progress, a stronger US dollar, and softer biofuel demand. 📦 Export Sales Update Corn: 1.2 mmt (48 mbu), up 128% vs last week. Mexico led for 4th week in a row. Soybeans: 923k mt (34 mbu), up 71%. Egypt the top buyer. Still no China purchases yet. Wheat: 377k mt (14 mbu), near low end of expectations. Philippines the largest buyer. 🇧🇷 Brazil’s Record Crop Outlook Soybeans: 177.7 mmt (+3.6%), acreage up 3.7%, exports up 5.1% to 112.1 mmt. Corn: 138.3 mmt, exports up 16% to 46.5 mmt. 🌾 Drought Monitor Corn Belt drought worsening: 37% affected, up 17% from last week. Extreme drought in eastern Ohio & SE Missouri. High Plains saw slight improvement in ND, SD, and KS. USDA drought data shows: Corn: 25% Soybeans: 36% Winter Wheat: 44% Spring Wheat: 13% Cattle: 23% 🚨 Flash Sale to Mexico US sold 110,000 mt (4 mbu) corn for 2025/26 delivery. Corn sales are now running 68% above last year’s pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Farm Bailout - How Will it Look? 4:02 Fed Rate Cut 5:42 Bearish Wheat Headlines 8:23 Canada Production 9:34 Ethanol Production 🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering farm aid, the Fed’s rate cut, and big moves in global wheat and canola markets. 💵 Farm Aid Push Republican lawmakers urge Trump administration to deliver new farmer payments USDA weighing a package similar to the $23B MFP programs of 2018–19 ECAP already paying out $10B this year 🏦 Federal Reserve Moves Fed cuts rates for the first time since December New range: 4%–4.25% Labor market weakness driving the shift Expectations for two more cuts this year 🌍 Global Wheat & Canola Russia exploring subsidies to boost sluggish wheat exports India’s wheat stocks at 4-year highs Canada: biggest wheat crop since 2013, biggest canola crop since 2018 ⛽ Ethanol Update US ethanol production dips 4.5% week over week Stocks at 22.6M barrels, down nearly 5% from last year Margins remain positive across the Corn Belt

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into big moves in the currency, grain, gold, and policy worlds—and what they mean for agriculture and global markets. 💵 US Dollar Weakness The US dollar tumbled to multi-year lows as markets brace for a potential Fed rate cut. A weaker dollar is giving commodities a lift, but stronger-than-expected retail sales could temper the Fed’s dovish tone. See charts on the US Dollar Index, USD/BRL, and Bloomberg Commodity Index. 🌏 Trade & Tariffs Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled fresh US-China trade talks are coming. If no deal is reached, President Trump’s tariffs (34% baseline, up to 60% effective) will take effect November 10. Last year’s $300B trade deficit with China is expected to shrink by 30% this year. Notably, China has yet to purchase US soybeans this marketing year. 🌽🌱🌾 Grain Futures Rally Corn, soybeans, and wheat all moved higher Tuesday: Corn near $4.30 Soybeans near $10.50 Wheat higher for the 4th straight session Drivers: weak USD, smaller crop worries, and optimism over export demand. 🧪 Fertilizer Research Act Senators Grassley, Baldwin, and Ernst reintroduced bipartisan legislation directing USDA to study fertilizer pricing and competition. Fertilizer now accounts for ~36% of corn farmers’ costs. The bill has backing from NCGA and ASA. 🥇 Gold at Record Highs Gold surged past $3,700/oz—its strongest run since 1979. Hedge funds and ETFs are piling in, with stagflation and global instability adding fuel.  ⛽ Biofuel Policy Updates The EPA is weighing proposals to reallocate waived blending requirements from the Small Refinery Exemption program. Options: 50% reallocation (2023–2025) 100% reallocation (2026–2027) Public comment runs through October 31. 👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop a comment with your take on the Fed’s next move, and hit the bell 🔔 so you never miss a market shift!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Direct Payments 4:12 US/China Talks 5:45 Brazil Soy Planting Starts 8:17 Crop Progress/Conditions 10:13 NOPA Soy Crush 11:19 Tyson and High-Fructose Corn Syrup 13:26 Grain Shipments are Strong 14:31 Flash Sale 🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering fresh updates on farm aid, trade talks, crop conditions, and global markets. 💰 USDA Aid & Farm Support USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the agency is weighing another round of farmer payments this fall. Rising input costs, weak markets, and stalled trade talks with China are driving the conversation. Past programs (MFP & ECAP) totaled more than $30B combined, and this round could land near $10B—or higher. 🌍 Trade & China Update President Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday after trade meetings in Madrid. While talks were “very good,” China has yet to book any US soybeans this marketing year. Trump may lean on direct payments to farmers unless a favorable deal emerges. 🌱 Brazil Planting & Production Brazilian farmers are just starting soybean planting—0.12% complete vs. 0.06% last year. AgRural projects a record 176.7mmt soybean crop, while USDA pegs corn at 131mmt. Dry weather could slow progress. 🌽 US Crop Progress & Conditions Corn: 67% G/E rating (highest since 2018 for the week), 7% harvested. Soybeans: 63% G/E, 5% harvested—slightly behind LY but ahead of avg. Wheat: Winter wheat planting 11% (vs. 13% avg), spring wheat harvest 94%. 🏭 Crush & Processing NOPA August crush: 189.81M bu—record for August, +20% YoY, above trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.245B lbs, the lowest since Dec 2024. 🍗 Tyson & Corn Syrup Tyson will phase out high-fructose corn syrup, sucralose, and dyes by year-end under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. Corn syrup accounts for ~3% of US corn demand. One study suggests Tyson’s feed needs cover 10M acres of corn & soy. 🚢 Exports & Sales US corn shipments: 1.5mmt (60M bu), +167% YoY. Soybeans: 804k mt (30M bu), +70% YoY. Wheat: 755k mt (28M bu), +28% YoY. Plus, USDA announced a flash sale of 6M bu of corn to unknown buyers. 👉 Stay tuned, drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for the latest ag market insights!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 USDA and Corn Rally 6:10 The Funds 8:26 US/China Talks to Resume 9:39 USDA Reporting Problems 11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale 🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & Soybeans US corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19. For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%.  📉 Funds Add to Shorts CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers: Corn: -4k contracts Soybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August) SRW Wheat: -10k contracts 🤝 US–China Trade Talks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year. 🇨🇳 Export Sales Twist Last week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season. 🛢 Soybean Oil Surprise USDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand. 

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Building Drought 6:13 USDA Preview 9:41 Export Sales 12:21 Brazil's Crop Report 14:20 Inflation is Up 🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇 🌦 Weather & Drought Monitor USDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country. Corn: 13% affected Soybeans: 22% Winter Wheat: 38% Spring Wheat: 13% Cattle: 18% 📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview USDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs. Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/disease US ending stocks seen slightly lower Global corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up 🚢 Export Sales US corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week: Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyer Soybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyer Wheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab) Conab raised estimates again: Corn: record 139.7 mmt Soybeans: record 171.5 mmt Soy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by China Brazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting. 📈 Economy & CPI US consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December. 👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Intro 0:49 USDA Preview 3:38 Argentina Situation 7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin 10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth 12:15 Ethanol Production 🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽 📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview The USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix. 🇦🇷 Argentina Outlook Rosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%. 🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US Soybeans China booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in. ⛽ Biofuels & Policy Uncertainty Trump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June. 🍶 Ethanol Production & Margins US ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices. 👉Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and leave a comment with your thoughts on tomorrow’s report.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Ag Economy 6:57 Soybean Hit Piece 9:58 SREs 11:15 Grain Standards Act 12:13 Cattle Selloff 14:03 BLS Data (Jobs) 💰 Ag Economy Crisis AgWeb reports farmers nationwide are facing collapsing margins. At a September 2 meeting in Arkansas, 400+ farmers called bailouts ineffective and skewed toward corporate players. Monopolistic control in seed, fertilizer, and chemical markets is trapping farmers while corporations profit. Bankruptcy risks are spiking, with 25–40% of farms in some regions projected to fail. Leaders demand reforms: antitrust enforcement, merger freezes, lobbying limits, and greater market diversification. 🌱 Soybean Disaster China still hasn’t purchased a single US soybean this marketing year. Typically, China takes more than 25% of US soybean exports. Ongoing trade tensions push China toward Brazil. Prices are now below production costs—half a million American farmers are at risk. Agriculture supports nearly 19% of US GDP and 1M+ jobs. Industry leaders are calling for immediate trade resolutions. ⚡ Biofuels Battle Senators from oil-producing states introduced the Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025. Would block the EPA from reallocating blending obligations from small refineries to larger ones. Biofuel groups argue this rewards small refineries and weakens renewable fuel policy. A reallocation of exemptions would be devastating to the ethanol industry. 🌾 Grain Standards Act The House passed the US Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025. Extends the inspection and grading system through 2030. Pushes USDA toward tech upgrades for better accuracy. Ensures fair pricing for farmers and buyer confidence abroad. The Senate must approve before the end of September to avoid $70M/day losses. 🥩 Cattle Market Correction Cattle futures saw the steepest correction since June. Feeder cattle limit down across nearly all contracts. Driven by payroll data revisions showing a weaker consumer outlook. Trump’s weekend comments on falling beef prices added pressure. 📉 Jobs Data Shock BLS is expected to revise payrolls lower by 911,000 jobs. Cuts average monthly growth nearly in half from previous reports. Weak labor data strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut next week. Final revisions are due early 2026. 👉Don’t miss tomorrow’s update—hit subscribe, drop a comment with your thoughts, and share this with a fellow farmer or market watcher. Staying informed is critical in times like these!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 China Imports 5:26 Crop Progress 9:21 Brazil Planting Begins 10:57 Russia Wheat 11:54 Grain Shipments 🌎 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down key moves in global grain markets. 📊 China Soybean Demand China ramped up soybean purchases in August, bringing in a record 12.3mmt for the month. Stockpiles now sit at 6.8mmt—the highest since March. While the US export window is just opening, China continues to rely heavily on Brazil amid the ongoing US-China trade war. 🌽 US Corn & Soy Conditions Corn ratings slipped slightly, with 68% good/excellent vs. 69% last week, still the best since 2018. 4% of the crop is harvested vs. 3% average. Soybean ratings dipped to 64% g/e, the lowest of the year. 21% of beans are dropping leaves—a touch ahead of average. 🌾 Wheat Update Spring wheat harvest is 85% complete, nearly in line with average. Winter wheat planting is just getting started at 5%, steady with last year. 🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Pace AgRural reports 12% of first corn crop planted, behind last year’s 15%. Soybean planting has just begun at 0.2%. USDA projects 131mmt corn and 175mmt soybeans for Brazil this season. 🇷🇺 Russia’s Bigger Wheat Crop Sovecon lifted its wheat estimate to 86.1mmt, matching IKAR’s latest call. Black Sea production strength continues to weigh on global wheat prices. 🚢 Export Inspections Corn: 1.4mmt (57m bu)—up 70% vs. last year 📈 Soybeans: 452k mt (17m bu)—+24% y/y Wheat: 425k mt (16m bu)—down sharply w/w Don’t forget to subscribe, drop a 👍, and share your thoughts in the comments. Your support helps keep this channel going!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Freeze 1:35 Unknown Buys Soybeans 2:43 Export Sales 8:35 Monster Corn Yield Estimate 9:56 The Funds 10:59 Job Growth Slows 🌽🌱 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down weekend weather risks, fresh export sales, and market reaction. ❄️ Weekend Freeze Event Some US corn and soybean areas saw freezing temps early Sunday morning across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and western Nebraska. The extent of crop damage is still unclear, but markets are shrugging it off with lackluster trade to start the week. See maps below, and please share any local details you have—past/observed weather info is much harder to pin down than forecasts! 🚢 Export Sales Update USDA reported two Friday flash sales: 327,650mt (12mil bu) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 25/26 delivery. Accumulated sales are down 32% YoY, with “Unknown” now 41% of all new-crop soybean export sales. China still hasn’t booked a single bushel for 25/26. While some “Unknown” could be China, a weak Northern Plains basis suggests no major PNW program yet. New crop corn sales hit 2.1mmt (83mil bu), near the high end of expectations. Mexico was the top buyer. Soybean sales (818,500mt) were down 40% WoW; wheat sales (313,000mt) missed expectations, with Nigeria as the top buyer. See charts below. 🌾 Crop Estimates S&P Global pegs yields at 189.1bpa for corn (16.77bbu) and 53.8bpa for soybeans (4.31 bbu)—record-large crops. These numbers are slightly above USDA’s latest estimates but higher than StoneX’s more cautious outlook. USDA updates its official estimates this Friday. 📊 Fund Positioning CFTC data shows: Funds trimmed corn shorts again, buying 16k contracts. Net short now 95k, the smallest since May. Funds sold 8k soybean contracts and 417 SRW wheat contracts. 💼 Macro Headlines US job growth slowed in August with just +22,000 jobs (vs. 75k expected). Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. June was revised to a loss of 13k jobs—the first monthly decline since 2020. Analysts see this soft labor market reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 US/Japan Deal 5:17 Rollins Comments 7:53 Corn/Soybean Charts 10:37 StoneX Estimates 14:23 Drought Expands 15:53 Biofuel Imports 🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵 Trump–Japan Trade Deal Trump signed a deal with Japan that slaps a 15% tariff on Japanese imports. Tokyo agreed to a $550B U.S. investment fund—Trump says he can use it “however he wants,” but no details yet. Japan also pledged $8B annually in U.S. ag purchases (corn, soybeans). For comparison: the 2020 U.S.–China “Phase One” deal had ~$40B/year in ag buys. 🌽🌱 Ag Market Impact Japan bought 512M bushels of U.S. corn in the 24/25 marketing year—2nd only to Mexico. Last season: $2.8B corn and $998M soybeans from the U.S. This new pledge could be a major boost for U.S. farmers. 📉 StoneX Crop Outlook Corn yield cut to 186.9 bpa (down from 188.1), but acreage boost lifts production to 16.58B bu. Soybean yield trimmed to 53.2 bpa with production lowered to 4.26B bu. The ongoing survey methodology dates back to 1993. 🌦️ USDA Drought Update Corn Belt drought expands slightly: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, plus parts of Iowa & Minnesota. Current drought coverage: Corn 9%, Soybeans 16%, Winter Wheat 34%, Spring Wheat 13%, Cattle 18%. Some relief in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota with scattered showers. 🛢️🌱 Biofuels & Policy Shift U.S. biodiesel imports down 94%; renewable diesel imports down 85% (lowest since 2012). Cause: the new 45Z tax credit only applies to domestic biofuels (replacing the old $1/gal blender’s credit). Positive for U.S. soybean oil & ethanol — less foreign competition ahead. 📢 Stay Informed Big changes are underway in trade, policy, and farm markets. Don’t miss a beat — hit subscribe and drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 USDA's Dire Forecast 4:10 Trump Comments 7:06 Corn/Soybean Selloff 9:22 Polymarket and CFTC 10:59 SAF Future Looks Poor 12:20 Flash Sale 🌾 Farm Economy & Receipts USDA projects US crop receipts to decline in 2025, led by weaker returns for soybeans, corn, and wheat. Total receipts are expected at $236.6B, down 2.5% from 2024. Meanwhile, direct government payments are set to surge 300% to $40.5B. On the livestock side, cattle receipts are forecast up nearly 16%, while hogs climb almost 10%. 🌍 Trump vs. China, Russia & North Korea President Trump accused China of conspiring with Russia and North Korea following their high-profile military parade in Beijing. Xi, Putin, and Kim stood together at the event, but Trump downplayed the threat—reminding supporters that “China needs us more than we need them.” 📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide Corn and soybean futures pulled back midweek after recent rallies. Dec25 corn closed at $4.18, down 5 cents, while Nov25 soybeans slipped nearly 10 cents to $10.32. Losses came despite USDA reporting weaker crop condition ratings. 💻 Crypto & Prediction Markets Polymarket scored a major win with CFTC approval to legally operate in the US. The no-action letter exempts the platform from certain costly reporting requirements, clearing the way for more growth in prediction markets. 🛢️ Shell Cancels Biofuels Project Shell announced it will not restart construction of its massive Rotterdam biofuels facility, citing weak demand and global oversupply. This follows similar moves by BP and even Southwest Airlines, raising questions about the future of SAF and corn ethanol’s role in aviation fuel. 🚢 Soybean Meal Flash Sale US exporters sold 185,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines. Total flash sales for this marketing year now stand at 455,000mt. ✅ Stay informed with daily updates on ag markets, policy, and global news. Don’t forget to subscribe and drop a comment with your thoughts below!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Corn and Soybean Problems 5:47 Farmer Sentiment 9:24 Soybean Ratings Decline 11:12 Trump Appeal 12:02 Wheat is Broken 13:56 Soybean Shipping Problems Imminent 🌽📉 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into a BIG Wall Street Journal feature on U.S. corn & soybean production—and what it means for farmers, markets, and global trade. 📊 Production & Oversupply Advances in tech and policy have fueled massive yields. Despite planting fewer acres in 2024 than 100 years ago, U.S. farmers produced 729% more corn. The downside? Oversupply has dragged prices lower and cut into profitability. 🌍 Global Trade Shifts For decades, U.S. farmers relied on expanding demand overseas. But tariffs, trade disputes, and shifting policy have shut doors. Meanwhile, Brazil has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s top corn & soybean exporter, thanks to abundant farmland and modern logistics. 😟 Farmer Sentiment Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer fell for the third straight month. Farmers cite higher input costs, rising loan concerns, and weaker future expectations. 🌱 Crop Conditions Soybeans dropped to 65% good-to-excellent, the lowest rating of the year so far. Corn slipped too but still holds one of the best ratings in the past decade. Harvest is quickly approaching, with maturity advancing faster than average. ⚖️ Policy & Tariffs President Trump is pushing for a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs after a federal court deemed parts of his previous tariffs illegal. The outcome could reshape global trade flows. 🌾 Wheat & Exports Russia’s wheat export outlook keeps climbing, while U.S. wheat export sales are the best in 10 years for this point in the season. Corn and soybean shipments also impressed, staying near the high end of expectations. 💬Drop your thoughts in the comments—are U.S. farmers falling behind Brazil for good? 📌Don’t forget to subscribe for daily grain market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽📈 Corn & Soybean Futures Rally Corn and soybean futures ended Friday on a strong note! The Dec25 corn contract jumped about 10 cents to $4.20/bu—its best daily move since early July—while Nov25 soybeans gained 7 cents to $10.55/bu. Traders cited strong global demand, disease worries in the Corn Belt (tar spot & southern rust), and fresh chatter about Chinese buying. 🌏🇨🇳 🌡️❄️ Weather Watch Frost risk later this week in Minnesota & Wisconsin 🌬️🥶 Overnight GFS points to lows in the mid-30s Thursday & Saturday August went down as one of the driest in 133 years for parts of OH, KY, IN, IL, MO & TN. 🌾☀️ 📜⚖️ Tariffs & Trade A federal appeals court struck down a large chunk of Trump’s tariffs, ruling he overstepped authority under IEEPA. The decision could force repayment of billions in duties and calls into question past trade deals. Appeals are already in motion, with a Supreme Court fight likely. 🇺🇸⚖️ Meanwhile, China’s envoy Li Chenggang met with US officials in DC. No details released, but China is boosting soybean imports from Argentina & Uruguay—still no official new-crop US purchases. 🚢🌎 🚜💰 Farm Progress Show Recap Farmers are under pressure: weak markets, rising input costs, sluggish soybean exports. Corn export sales remain solid, but soybeans lag badly without Chinese demand. Fertilizer & equipment costs continue to squeeze margins. Josh Linville joins today’s premium video to break down fertilizer prices. 🌱💸 📊📉 Fund Flows (CFTC Data) Funds bought 4k corn, 21k soybeans & 17k SRW wheat contracts Net long in soybeans now largest since late June 🌟 🇧🇷🌽 Brazil Crop Update AgRural reports 7% of first-crop corn was planted as of last Thursday, up 4% from the prior week. USDA projects 131 mmt this season. Hot & dry weather is still a factor, but rains are forecast next week to aid planting. 🌦️ ✅ Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Staying informed keeps you ahead of the markets. 📊🌎

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 How Much Does This Suck? 1:20 Fertilizer Prices and Tariffs 6:23 US/China Meeting 10:04 Export Sales 12:18 Declining River Levels 15:09 Drought and Yield Potential 💸 Fertilizer Costs & Tariffs Tight supplies and tariffs have pushed fertilizer prices to their highest level relative to grain and oilseed futures since 2016. While Canadian potash is tariff-free under USMCA, imports from countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia face added costs. Senator Chuck Grassley says cutting tariffs would bring quick relief, while the Trump administration is pushing to label potash a critical mineral to boost domestic production. 📈  🌏 China Trade Talks Chinese trade envoy Li Chenggang is in Washington for meetings with US trade and Treasury officials. While not part of formal negotiations, this visit follows his Canada trip and signals continued dialogue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says "everything is on the table," but Beijing has yet to book new-crop US soybeans despite Trump’s push earlier this month. 🇨🇳🇺🇸 📊 Export Sales Update • Corn: 2.1mmt (82m bu), down from last week but still strong. Mexico the top buyer. • Soybeans: 1.4mmt (50m bu), above expectations — "unknown" buyers lead the way. • Wheat: 579,800mt (21m bu), steady with recent trends. Vietnam the biggest buyer. 🌊 Mississippi River Woes River levels at Memphis are forecast to fall 3–4 feet below normal by mid-month, raising fears of another costly harvest shipping season. Limited rainfall in the Ohio River Valley is adding pressure. 🚢  🌦 Drought Monitor USDA reports drought expansion across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Some relief in the High Plains, while Michigan saw improvements. Corn 🌽: 5% in drought Soybeans 🌱: 11% Winter Wheat 🌾: 31% Spring Wheat 🌾: 13% Cattle 🐄: 15% 👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe to stay informed on the latest in ag markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 More Farm Aid? 5:05 More China Soybean News 9:14 Vietnam Ethanol 10:58 Mexico/China 11:53 S&P Record High 🚜 USDA “Bridge” Policy in the Works Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden says USDA is exploring a short-term “bridge” policy to help farmers weather low crop prices. With ARC, PLC, and enhanced crop insurance not set to kick in until 2026, the CCC fund (to be replenished in November) could provide relief—similar to past trade war payments. 🌍 China Still Snubbing US Soybeans Despite a ~20% premium, China continues to lean on Brazil’s soybeans while avoiding US new-crop supplies. The nation is also importing more Argentine meal and cutting feed usage. Traders are debating whether China can cover a 20–25mmt gap if they keep sidelining US beans. 🇻🇳 Vietnam Goes All-In on E10 Vietnam will fully shift to E10 gasoline in 2026, cutting its ethanol import tariff and pledging $2B in additional US ag imports. With domestic plants only covering ~40% of demand, US corn & ethanol could see a boost. 🍶 US Ethanol Snapshot Weekly ethanol output slipped to 1.07mbpd, while stocks dropped to the lowest of the year at 22.5m barrels. Margins remain strong thanks to cheap corn. 🇲🇽 Mexico Joins the Tariff Game Mexico plans tariffs on Chinese goods as part of its 2026 budget—aligning with Trump’s request to counter cheap imports. This could reshape North American trade ahead of next year’s USMCA review. 📈 Wall Street at Record Highs The S&P 500 closed at a record, powered by Nvidia’s blowout earnings and ongoing AI demand. Dow and Nasdaq also posted gains. 💬 What do you think—will USDA step in with real aid, or will low prices linger into 2026? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss an update.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 "Flash Drought" 3:50 Price Action and Charts 5:24 US/China Trade Talks 8:59 Renewable Investments 10:21 Russia's Wheat Crop Keeps Getting Bigger 🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down the latest on crop weather, grain markets, trade talks, energy policy, and global wheat supplies. ☀️ Weather & Crops Dryness is intensifying across the southern & eastern Corn Belt and the Delta. Ohio is experiencing its driest August in 133 years. Flash drought concerns are building in parts of southern IL, MO, western TN, AR, and LA. Forecasts show very little rain ahead, keeping stress high for corn & soybeans. 🌵 📉 Grain Markets Corn futures slipped back toward $4.10, soybeans ticked higher to $10.50, and wheat was mixed. Traders are balancing record crop expectations against the risk of weather stress. Holiday-weekend trade + month-end positioning = extra volatility. 📊 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks Talks resume in Washington, D.C. this week with Li Chenggang meeting U.S. trade & Treasury officials. Soybeans are front and center—but China wants tariff relief tied to fentanyl trade before making major purchases. Farmers are watching closely for export sales. 🚢 ⚡ Renewable Energy U.S. renewable investments fell 36% in the first half of the year. Wind & solar projects dropped sharply after Trump’s subsidy rollbacks. Last week, he said his administration will no longer approve new wind & solar projects. Big shakeup for the energy sector. 🌬️☀️ 🌾 Russia Wheat Outlook Consultancy IKAR raised Russia’s wheat crop forecast to 86mmt and boosted export expectations to 43mmt. Despite a slight rebound, Chicago wheat remains near four-year lows, with Russia set to dominate exports again in 25/26. 🌍 👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop your thoughts in the comments, and share with a fellow farmer or trader. Staying informed = staying ahead!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 The Biggest / The Largest 1:28 North Dakota Soybean Mess 5:06 WSJ Farm Piece 7:59 Brazil Corn Update 9:22 Crop Ratings 12:26 Grain Shipments 🌎 China Trade War Pressures Soybeans The ongoing trade war with China continues to squeeze US soybean demand and crush basis levels. 🚢 With no Chinese buying, Northern Plains farmers face cash bids under $9/bu as PNW export demand dries up. Elevators are slashing bids, leaving some of the weakest basis since 2018. 📉 Market Stress & Farmer Struggles The Wall Street Journal highlights farmer challenges: record crops 🌽🌱 but poor prices and rising costs mean profits are slim to none. Analysts warn breakeven corn prices could rise toward $4.66–$4.94/bu next year. Relief may hinge on the new Farm Bill or the $59B farm safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill. 🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Update Brazil’s second corn harvest is 98% complete, with slow farmer selling and strong domestic demand. Early planting of next year’s crop is slightly behind schedule, but forecasts call for favorable rains. US corn remains cheaper by $9/ton on the global market, keeping exports competitive. 🌽 US Crop Conditions Corn: 71% good/excellent 👍 (2nd best in 10 years) Soybeans: 69% good/excellent 🌱 (best since 2020) Spring wheat: 49% good/excellent, well below average ❌ Winter wheat harvest: 98% complete ✅ 🚢 Export Inspections Corn: 51M bu (+39% YoY) Soybeans: 14M bu (down from last week) Wheat: 35M bu (+71% YoY) 👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop a comment with your take on the markets. 💬👊

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Corn Yield Clash 3:59 Biofuel Waivers 5:48 China Rhetoric 9:05 The Funds are Buying? 9:51 Powell Jackson Hole 10:52 Cattle on Feed 12:25 Flash Sales 🌽🚜 Big Week in Ag Markets! ✨ Pro Farmer wrapped up its crop tour with national yield estimates. Corn came in at 182.7 bpa (16.2B bu) vs USDA’s 188.8 bpa (16.7B bu), while soybeans were pegged at 53 bpa (4.2B bu) vs USDA’s 53.6 bpa (4.3B bu). Scouts saw huge variability—strong crops in the west but dryness and disease pressure in the east. 📊🌱 ⚡ Biofuel Shock: EPA granted 63 full & 77 partial refinery waivers, sending soybean oil futures up nearly 4%. Still no clarity on reallocation for big refiners until 2023—keeping biofuel markets on edge. ⛽🌻 🇨🇳 Trade Tensions: China says U.S. protectionism is hurting farm trade. With U.S. ag exports to China cut by more than half this year, soybeans are feeling the brunt. Beijing calls farmland purchase limits “political,” while U.S. lawmakers say it’s about security. 🌎⚖️ 📉 Fund Moves: CFTC data showed money managers trimming corn shorts—the smallest since May. Funds were net buyers of 28k corn & 24k soybeans but net sellers of SRW wheat. 💼📊 💵 Macro Watch: Fed Chair Powell hinted at a September rate cut during Jackson Hole. Stocks surged, the dollar fell, and traders are betting on an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut. 📉🏦📈 🐂 Cattle on Feed: August 1 inventory at 10.9M head, 98% of last year. Placements were higher than expected but still 6% below 2024 levels. Overall tone = slightly bearish. 🐄📉 🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported corn sales of 5M bu to Costa Rica and 6M bu to Spain for 2025/26 delivery. 🌍📦 👍 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay on top of the markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Biofuel Rumor Rally 4:18 Crop Tour and USDA 8:37 Export Sales 13:30 Drought Monitor 15:53 USDA Funding Cuts 🌽🚜 Grain Market Update: Biofuel Battles, Record Crops & Export Surprises! 🌎📈 🔥 Big EPA Decision Coming Today The EPA is expected to rule on 195 small refinery exemption (SRE) requests this afternoon. Traders are buzzing after yesterday’s rally in corn, soybeans, and soybean oil—many believe someone knows something ahead of the news. A supplemental rule could also drop next week to decide if big refiners must reallocate exempted gallons, a move farm groups strongly support and oil refiners strongly oppose. 💥⚖️ 🌱 Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Minnesota & Iowa Results Scouts found record-breaking crops in both states: 🌽 Minnesota corn pegged at 199.6 bpa, smashing the old record & up 23% from last year! 🌱 Minnesota soybeans also set a new all-time pod count record. 🌽 Iowa corn estimated at 198.4 bpa, with soybeans also setting a tour record. Final national results from the tour are expected today. 📊 🚢 Export Sales – Big Corn Business US corn exports were 🔥 last week at 2.9 mmt (113 mil bushels), a massive 40% jump from the week prior. Unknown destinations led the charge. Soybean sales were also strong at 1.1 mmt, though China remains absent. Wheat sales lagged, with Mexico as the top buyer. 🌦️ Drought Monitor Update Dry weather tightened conditions across the Eastern Corn Belt (Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri). North Dakota improved, while Kansas & Oklahoma worsened slightly. Current US drought exposure: 🌽 Corn – 5% 🌱 Soybeans – 9% 🌾 Winter Wheat – 31% 🌾 Spring Wheat – 14% 🐄 Cattle – 15% 🏛️ USDA News The USDA plans to close the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, a move critics warn could disrupt vital research. Meanwhile, NASS, the agency behind crop estimates, faces budget cuts and staffing shortages, raising questions about future reporting accuracy. 👉 Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop a comment 💬 with your thoughts on today’s EPA ruling and crop tour results!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Crop Tour Update 4:21 CME / Fanduel Casino 7:32 Russia Wheat Update 10:21 Cattle Surge Again 12:14 Fed Minutes 13:59 Ethanol Production 14:46 Flash Sale 🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Big Updates! 🌱 The tour released results from Illinois and western Iowa: Illinois corn came in at 199.6 bpa, the 2nd-highest in tour history, just shy of last year. 🌽 Soybeans set a new record for pod counts, up 4.2% vs. last year. 🌱 Western Iowa crops look strong, with corn yields 10% above the 3-year avg. and soybean pod counts up 18%! 🚜 But disease concerns could still limit final yield potential. 📊 Markets Meet Gambling? FanDuel is teaming up with CME to launch regulated betting contracts tied to: S&P 500, Nasdaq, oil, gas, gold, crypto 💹 Key economic indicators like GDP & CPI 📈 Founders of the CBOT (1848) might be rolling in their graves over this one… 🌾 Global Wheat Watch Sovecon raised Russia’s wheat crop outlook to 85.4mmt 🌍. Good weather in Siberia & the Urals boosted yields, but export logistics remain a challenge. 🐂 Cattle Rally Continues Cattle futures hit new highs as supplies remain tight and demand strong. USDA says no to Mexican feeder imports due to disease risk. Beef values hold near record levels. 🥩 💵 Fed vs. Inflation Fed officials see inflation (fueled by tariffs) as the bigger risk vs. jobs. Rates stay at 4.3%, unemployment is up to 4.2%, and inflation just hit a 3-year high. ⚖️ ⛽ Ethanol Snapshot Output: 1.07M bpd (down 2% on the week) Stocks: 22.69M barrels Margins remain strong thanks to cheap corn. 🌽 🚢 US Export Sales US exporters reported new corn sales: 100k mt to Colombia 🇨🇴 125k mt to Mexico 🇲🇽 👉 Stay tuned for charts, graphics, and deeper breakdowns in the corn 🌽, soybean 🌱, wheat 🌾, and cattle 🐂 sections below! 🔥 Don’t forget to subscribe & drop a comment with your take on these market moves!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Soybean Farmers Need a Trade Deal 3:50 Crop Tour Day 2 8:29 Eastern Corn Belt Dryness 10:36 "Small" Refinery Exemptions 12:28 Brazil Soy Cartel 13:43 Flash Sale 🌱 Soybean Farmers Sound the Alarm The American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to secure a trade deal with China. In a letter to the White House, the ASA president warned that growers are on the brink of a financial crisis 🚨. With zero new crop soybean sales to China, export commitments are the second-lowest in a decade. Normally, China buys about 14% of its US soybean needs before harvest—but not this year. If China stays out, no other buyers can fill the gap. 📉 🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Scouts released their Indiana & Nebraska findings yesterday: Indiana corn yield pegged at 193.8 bpa, a new tour record 🌟 Nebraska corn yield at 179.5 bpa, the best in 4 years 🌽 Soybean pod counts mixed: Indiana slightly lower vs. last year, Nebraska up 15%—a record 🚀 ☀️ Dry Eastern Corn Belt Large areas of IL, IN, MO, and OH are bone dry 🌵. Temps well above normal, no rain in the 10-day forecast. One or two timely showers could swing soybean yields 10–20 bpa. Corn grain fill is also at risk. ⚡ EPA Biofuel Waiver Watch Nearly 200 exemption requests are waiting on an EPA ruling this week. A big approval could crush biofuel demand and weaken RIN prices. A smaller approval could boost demand. Expect an appeals battle no matter what. ⚖️ 🌎 Brazil Soy Cartel Probe Brazil’s antitrust regulator is investigating the long-standing Soy Moratorium, which bans purchases of soybeans grown on deforested Amazon land. The probe targets 30 traders, including ADM & Cargill. Enforcement of the pact is suspended while the case plays out. 🌳 🇲🇽 Flash Soybean Sale US exporters sold 228,606mt (8 mil bu) of soybeans to Mexico this week. Even so, new-crop sales are still down 20% vs. last year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Ohio and SD Tour Findings 4:36 Brazilian Corn is Expensive? 7:18 USDA Solar/Wind Funding 11:12 Crop Conditions/Progress 13:49 Big Russian Wheat Crop 14:33 Grain Shipments 🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down the latest Pro Farmer Crop Tour results, fresh updates from Brazil, big USDA policy news, and the latest on US crop conditions and exports. 🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings 🚜 South Dakota: Corn yield pegged at 174.2 bpa, up 11% from last year and 21% above the 3-year avg. Soybean pods up 16%. Scouts very impressed—ample summer moisture means record yields possible. 🌱 Ohio: Corn yield estimated at 185.7 bpa, a new record, +1.3% vs last year and +2.9% vs 3-year avg. Soybean pods up 4.7%, but scouts found huge variability due to early/late planting, spring replanting, and summer dryness. 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update 🌽 Second corn harvest 94% complete (AgRural). 📈 Conab raised total corn crop estimate to 137 mmt, USDA steady at 132 mmt. 🌱 New 25/26 crop planting 1.6% complete, well ahead of last year. 🚢 Despite big supply, Brazilian corn is $13/ton (33¢/bu) more expensive than US corn on export markets. ⚡ USDA Ends Wind & Solar Support 🛑 USDA Sec. Brooke Rollins announced the end of wind/solar support on farmland. 🌍 USDA argued such projects threaten future farming & food security. 💰 Until now, USDA pumped billions into renewables. 🌾 Only 0.5% of farmland was used for turbines/solar—and most stayed in production. 🌽 US Crop Conditions Corn rated 71% G/E (down slightly, still 2nd highest in 10 years). Soybeans steady at 68% G/E, well above average. 🚨 Weak spots: OH, MI, KY, IL. Corn 3% mature, beans 82% setting pods. 🌾 Wheat Update Spring wheat 50% G/E (up, but well below avg). Harvest is 36% complete; winter wheat 94% done. 🌍 Russia raised wheat crop outlook to 85.5 mmt with exports at 42.5 mmt. 🚢 Exports & Sales Corn exports: 1.1 mmt (down sharply vs last week/year). Soybeans: 474k mt, mixed but stronger vs last year. Wheat: 395k mt, near low end. 📢 Flash sale: 124k mt corn sold to unknown buyers for 25/26. Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and comment 💬 with your thoughts on the Crop Tour results—do you think South Dakota will set a new record this year?

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc... Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌽 Welcome Back! Some parts of the US Corn Belt have turned very dry over the last two weeks. Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio have seen little to no rain 🌤️. Talk of a "flash drought" is heating up as the forecast stays dry. Temps have run 2–4° above normal, with a cool front expected this weekend. See maps below! 🚜 Crop Tour 🚜 Pro Farmer kicks off its Midwest Crop Tour this week (Aug 18–21). Scouts will travel across 7 states, measuring ear counts, pod counts, and crop health. 🌱 This tour offers the most widely followed, real-time snapshot of US crop potential. Results will be released daily, with final estimates Thursday night. Pete Meyer will join us from the tour later this week! 📉 Corn Market Update The Dec25 corn contract closed last week nearly unchanged despite a hugely bearish USDA report. 🌾 USDA pegged this year’s corn crop at 16.7B bushels—over 700M above trade guesses. Corn bottomed at $3.92 before closing near $4.05. Export demand is strong, but concerns linger. Big crops often “get bigger,” though not always… See charts below. 🥫 Soybean Crush Record NOPA’s July report showed a record crush for the month at 195.69M bushels (+5.6% vs June, +7% YoY). 💥 Soybean oil stocks fell to the lowest July level since 2004—just under trade estimates. See charts below! 📊 Fund Activity CFTC data shows “The Funds” shifted positions last week: ➡️ Sold 6k corn contracts ➡️ Bought 27k soybean contracts ➡️ Sold 9k SRW wheat contracts Check out the Fund Tracker below 👇 👍 Stay Informed! Don’t miss a beat on weather, markets, and policy. Subscribe, drop a comment 💬, and share your thoughts on whether this “flash drought” will truly hit soybean yields.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/ Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG 🌾 USDA’s “Summer of Making Agriculture Great Again” – but are they really helping farmers? 🤔 🚜 Yesterday, USDA dropped a flashy post on X claiming Sec. Rollins is “fighting every day to put farmers first.” The problem? Most recent farm payments were approved before he took office. Meanwhile, biofuel policy is stalled, the China trade war is still hurting soybeans, and US row crop farmers are stuck with sky-high costs & low prices. 📉 Markets Recap: 🌽 Dec25 corn tested early-week lows before late buying brought prices back to even. 🫘 Nov25 soybeans filled their July chart gap but reversed lower. 🌍 China is booking Brazilian beans during the US export window – 12+ million tons already locked in! A 23% tariff keeps US soy uncompetitive, even though we’re $40/ton cheaper without it. 📦 Export Sales: ✅ Corn – 2.05 MMT new crop sales, up 156% from last year, with Mexico leading buyers. ✅ Soybeans – 1.1 MMT sold, but China bought zero. ✅ Wheat – 722,800 MT, South Korea in the lead. 🌦 Weather & Drought: Corn Belt rains missed the worst drought spots. Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and Ohio saw dryness worsen. Corn in drought: 4% Soybeans: 3% Winter wheat: 29% Spring wheat: 16% Cattle: 14% 🏭 John Deere Update: Tariffs may cost Deere $600M in 2025 despite beating Q3 earnings estimates. They’re hoping future trade deals & tax policy can help offset the pain. 📢 Flash Sales: Two new US corn deals – 136k MT to South Korea & 132k MT to Spain. New crop sales are up 108% year-over-year! 📊 Charts & analysis in the video – don’t miss it! 🎥 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments – is USDA all talk, or are they actually helping farmers?

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 NCGA Asks for Help 3:45 Soybean Rally 5:44 Green Plains and Blackrock 8:41 Ethanol Production 9:48 US Beef Prices 🌽 Corn Growers Plead for Action — But Are They Asking for the Wrong Thing? 🚜 The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is urging lawmakers to boost corn demand through market-based solutions. Their push comes as farmers face rock-bottom prices and a USDA forecast for a record-smashing crop — 16.74 billion bushels, 9% above the 2023 record. NCGA wants Congress to approve year-round E15 sales (potentially adding 457M bushels of demand) and for the Trump administration to fast-track trade deals. But here’s my take — E15 probably won’t move the demand needle much. What we really need? A solid biofuel policy for sustainable aviation fuel — something missing from NCGA’s plan. 🌱 Soybeans on a Tear Soybean futures rallied for the third day in a row, hitting the highest price since early July. USDA projects soybean acreage down 7% year-over-year, pushing 2025/26 ending stocks to a three-year low. 🏭 Green Plains in Deep Debt Green Plains has pledged nine of its ten ethanol plants to BlackRock for a debt extension. The company faces oversupply issues, weaker demand, and failed diversification. Their new hope? Carbon capture + updated 45Z tax credits. ⛽ Ethanol Production Rising Output hit 1.09M barrels/day last week, while stocks fell to the lowest point this year. Efficiency is improving — more than 3 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn today compared to 2.8 in 2015. 🥩 Beef Prices to Climb in 2026 USDA sees beef supplies dropping to the lowest since 2019, with herd rebuilding and tariffs on Brazil tightening supplies further. 👍 Like, 💬 comment, and subscribe to stay ahead on the markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Mammoth Corn Crop 5:07 BIG Acreage Changes 7:13 Soybean Rally 10:46 Cargill Revenue Down 12:47 Stock Market Rally 14:38 Corn Flash 🌽 Record Corn Crop Sends Prices Tumbling 📉 The USDA dropped a bombshell Tuesday, projecting a record-shattering US corn crop 🌽💥. National yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa, smashing all trade estimates and July’s forecast. Production came in at a jaw-dropping 16.74 billion bushels — that’s 1.4B bushels (9%) more than the previous record in 2023. Corn acreage was also bumped up to 97.3 million, fueled by favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt. After the news, Dec25 corn slid about 13¢ to close near $3.95/bu. 📉 🌱 Prevent Plant & Acreage Update New FSA data shows 1.8M prevented plant acres of corn (down 32% YoY), 1.2M acres for soybeans (up 55%), and 0.3M acres for wheat (down 29%). Actual plantings came in at 96.5M corn, 79.8M soybeans, and 48.7M wheat — hinting corn acreage may be revised even higher later. 🫘 Soybean Surprise Soybean acres were cut to 80.9M — the biggest YoY drop in modern history 📉. Production is now seen at 4.29B bu, but with a record 53.6 bpa yield. Nov25 soybeans rallied nearly 6¢, settling near $10.33/bu. 📈 🏭 Cargill Hit by Weak Grain Markets Cargill’s revenue slid to $154B — its lowest since 2021 — amid slumping crop prices and tight beef margins. The company has cut ~8,000 jobs and restructured from five to three business units. 📊 Stock Market Pops on CPI Data July CPI met expectations — +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY — sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs 🚀. Odds of a September Fed rate cut are now near 90%. 🚢 Corn Flash Sale to Mexico US exporters sold 315,488 mt of corn to Mexico — most for the 2025/26 marketing year. 🇲🇽 👍 Like, comment, and subscribe for the latest in grain markets, ag policy, and market-moving data! 🌾📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 US/China/Soybeans 2:33 USDA Preview 4:56 Brazil Corn Update 8:34 Crop Progress / Conditions 11:36 Strong Corn Shipments Again 🌎 Tariff Truce Extended & Soybean Rally! 🌱📈 On Monday, President Trump extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days — just hours before massive tariffs were set to return. Without the deal, Chinese imports to the US would’ve faced a 145% tariff, and China would’ve slapped a 125% tariff on US goods 🚢💥. 📣 In a Sunday night Truth Social post, Trump urged China to quadruple its US soybean purchases. While no fresh buying has been confirmed, soybean futures rallied nearly 24¢ Monday, with the Nov25 contract settling near $10.11/bu. However, prices are trading softer early this morning. 📊 USDA Report Day 🌽🌾 The Crop Production & WASDE report drops at 11am CST! Corn yield & production → traders expect a big jump amid stellar crop ratings. Soybeans → yield seen ticking higher. Wheat → US carryout likely lower, but world numbers mostly steady. 🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest Update 🌽 88% of Brazil’s second-crop corn harvested (behind last year’s pace). AgRural pegs total corn crop at 136.3mmt (record!). Farmer selling slow ➡️ prices high ➡️ US staying competitive. 🌱 Crop Conditions Corn: 72% G/E (2nd-best in 10 years for this week) 👍 Soybeans: 68% G/E, still above 5-year avg 📈 Spring Wheat: 49% G/E (up 1% from last week) Winter Wheat: 90% harvested ✅ 🚢 Export Shipments Corn: 1.5mmt (↑16% vs. last week, ↑51% YoY) Soybeans: 519k mt (↓18% WoW, ↑48% YoY) Wheat: 365k mt (near low end of expectations) 📺 Stay Tuned! ✅ Subscribe for real-time USDA breakdowns, grain market updates, and trade news. 💬 Drop your thoughts below—will China actually buy the beans? #Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #USDA #Trump #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #BrazilCorn #FarmNews #AgUpdates

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Trump Comments, Soybeans Surge 2:40 Trump and Farm Economy 7:47 StoneX Yield Conspiracy 10:11 The Funds and Corn 12:12 USDA Preview 14:24 Food Prices Rise 🌱 Soybeans Surge After Trump Comments 🇺🇸📈 Soybean futures are 🔥 this morning after President Donald Trump took to Truth Social Sunday night, saying he hopes China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders and is worried about a shortage. 📲 Traders are reading this as a possible hint that soybean purchases could be part of a new trade deal. The Nov25 contract spiked 📈 27¢ overnight! 📰 Trump & the Farm Economy A recent Bloomberg piece looked at Trump's role in the farm economy. Since his first tariffs earlier this year, some farm input costs have climbed. Tariffs now average 15.2%—the highest since WWII 🇺🇸—but inflation, COVID money creation, direct farm payments 💵, and the Black Sea war ⚔️ have also fueled higher costs. 📉 New crop US soybean sales are the lowest in nearly 20 years—China hasn’t bought any yet. Meanwhile, US corn export sales are record high 🌽💪. 📊 Fund Tracker Funds cut their net short in corn last week (👀 +15k contracts) Net sellers of soybeans (-29k), pushing net shorts to the biggest since Dec 2024 Net sellers of SRW wheat (-16k) 📅 USDA Report Tomorrow – Big Changes Expected Traders expect higher corn 🌽 and soybean 🌱 yield estimates, bigger US carryouts, and rising global stocks—except for wheat, which may tighten. 🌍 Global Food Prices Climb The FAO Food Price Index hit 130.1 in July—the highest in 2+ years—driven by record-high meat prices 🥩 and surging vegetable oils 🌻🥥. Grain prices remain low despite high grocery costs. 🚨 Flash Corn Sale US exporters sold 125,000mt (5mil bu) of corn to “unknown” buyers for 25/26. Next year’s sales are already up 102% vs last year. 👍 If you follow grain markets, subscribe for daily updates & drop your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Brian's Charts 3:15 Big Corn Sales 7:50 US Ag Trade Deficit 9:42 Drought Monitor / Weather / Crop 13:49 China Pig Plan 15:57 Nutrien 18:22 BOE Rate Cut, US Next 🎯 Big Corn Sales, Global Trade Shifts & Drought Watch! 🌽📉🌍 🔥 MASSIVE Corn Sales! US new crop corn export sales came in at 3.163 MMT (125 mil bu) — the 3rd best weekly number ever and the best without China in the mix! 👉 Soybean sales (old + new crop) both beat expectations 👉 Wheat sales strong too — up 25% from last week 🚨 Record Ag Trade Deficit For the first 6 months of 2025, the US posted a $28.6B ag trade deficit, the worst on record... June alone: $4.1B shortfall 📌 Long-running surpluses have turned into consistent deficits since 2019 📌 Brazil & Argentina crops still undercutting US grain globally Drought Monitor Update USDA's weekly drought map is out: Spotty rains helped parts of IN & the High Plains New drought popped up in MO, IA, WI, and KY 📉 Current drought by crop: Corn: 3% Soybeans: 3% Winter Wheat: 30% Spring Wheat: 35% Cattle: 13% 🇨🇳 China to Cut Hog Herd China plans to reduce its sow herd by 1 million head Cash hog prices are down 30% YoY 📦 This could mean lower soymeal demand moving forward — big implications for soybean exporters 🧠 Trade tensions also play a role here 🌱 Fertilizer Demand Still Strong Nutrien says fall demand is booming, even with grain prices under pressure 🌽 Higher US corn acres = more potash demand 📈 Nutrien raised its 2025 potash forecast after record H1 sales 📊 Expect a busy fall fertilizer season 🇬🇧 Bank of England Cuts Rates The BOE cut interest rates to 4.00%, lowest in over 2 years 📉 Down from 5.25% in 2024 ⚖️ Vote was close: 5-4 split 📈 Inflation still high (4%) 📉 Labor market softening 🧭 Forward guidance? Cautious & slow Drop your thoughts in the comments! Are US ag exports turning a corner… or just getting squeezed out globally? 👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit that bell 🔔 for weekly market insights that cut through the noise. #GrainMarkets #CornExports #USDA #DroughtMonitor #TradeDeficit #Soybeans #Fertilizer #BOE #China #AgNews #FarmEcono

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Hammer Time (Corn Pattern) 3:15 Wheat Update 5:03 Soybean Update 7:08 New COVID Strain 8:57 Mosaic and Fertilizer 11:02 Ethanol Production 🌽 Corn Cracks $4! Rain, Record Yields & Farmer Selling 🌧️📉 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff — this week’s update is packed with price moves, trade chatter, and market-moving headlines! Let’s dig in👇 🌦️ 🌽 Corn Futures Dip Below $4! The Dec '25 corn contract dipped under $4 for the first time 😬 ➡️ Rains across the Corn Belt 🌧️ ➡️ Lofty private yield estimates 📈 ➡️ Weak Sep/Dec spread 😵‍💫 (farmer "puke" anyone?) ➡️ Record Brazil crop weighs on global values 🇧🇷 ⚠️ USDA report on deck Tuesday — average guess is 184.2bpa vs 181 🌾 Wheat & Soybeans Stay Weak 🟤 Sep ’25 SRW wheat hit $5.04, lowest since May 🟡 Nov ’25 soybeans near $9.85 after meal-led selloff 🌎 Big global supplies + soft demand = headwinds 🚫 🦠 New COVID Variant… Again? A new strain (XFG) is spreading. ➡️ Third most common in the US ➡️ No big red flags 🚫 💭 Worth watching… remember 2020? 🧪 Fertilizer Falters: Mosaic Slides 13% Mosaic missed earnings and shares tanked 💥 🇺🇸 Tariffs + delayed maintenance + lower crop prices = 💸 📉 US phosphate/potash imports down 20% YTD 🍺 Ethanol Update: More Efficient Than Ever 🛢️ Weekly output: 1.08mil bpd 📉 Stocks fell to 23.76mil barrels 💰 Margins improved 🌽 One bushel = 3+ gallons of ethanol today vs. 2.8 in 2015! 📊 🖼️ See all the charts below: • Monthly SRW Wheat 📉 • Stocks/Use Ratios • Ethanol Efficiency Gains 👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your take in the comments! 📬 Stay tuned—Tuesday’s USDA report could move markets in a big way! #corn #soybeans #wheat #ethanol #fertilizer #covid #usda #grainmarkets #trading #farming #agriculture #commodities #mosaic #StoneX #JoshLinville

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Joe's Resting B Face 1:30 Corn Belt Heat Wave 3:28 Argy Meal to China 5:08 ADM Stock Rises 7:47 Farmer Sentiment 9:20 Big Ukraine Crops 10:39 Corn Flash 🌽🔥 Heat, Trade, and Biofuels – Big Moves in Ag This Week! 🌎💥 Hey farmers, traders, and ag market watchers! 👨‍🌾📈 This week’s update is packed with key developments you won’t want to miss! Let’s break it down ⬇️ 🌡️ ☀️ Heat Wave Hits the Corn Belt! A two-week scorcher is headed for the Corn Belt! CropProphet forecasts temps 3–4°F above normal, with near-normal rain at first, then slightly drier. Some say warm weather during grain fill can help corn and soybean yields—if moisture holds up. What do you think? 🤔 🇨🇳🌱 China Buys Big from Argentina China’s diversifying! They've now bought 3 cargos of 🇦🇷 soybean meal (via Bunge), plus approved the first-ever Argentine corn shipment! 📦 And with a $900M letter of intent signed for soy, corn, and oil... trade ties are heating up like the weather! 🔥 🛢️ ADM Sees Biofuel Boom Ahead 🚜 Despite earlier scandals, ADM is riding high 📈—shares up 15% YTD. They expect higher biofuel mandates to fuel future profits, especially in Q4. Clarity in policy = bullish long term?  📉 Farmer Sentiment Slips 😕 The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 135 in July, with both present and future outlooks lower. But there's a silver lining: 🌐 optimism about trade is up, and most believe the US is heading in the right direction.  🌾 Ukraine Crop Outlook Improves 🌍 Ukrainian wheat and corn production could exceed forecasts if weather holds. With grain production near 56mmt and exports projected to hit 40mmt, winter wheat acres are set to rise 🚜.  🚨 USDA Flash Sale (Kind of…) USDA reported a flash soybean sale—but wait! Correction: it was actually corn! 😅 This is the second correction in two weeks. Sale totals 5 mil bushels to unknown buyers for 2025/26.  👍 If you enjoy honest, independent ag updates, smash that LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and join the convo below! Your support keeps us going 🙌

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Subscribe to the Channel! 1:01 StoneX Estimates 5:22 Corn Selloff 7:05 Crop Conditions 11:37 Brazil Harvest 12:56 Strong Shipments 🌽📊 StoneX Sees RECORD Corn Yield! Soybeans Also Strong 💪 👀 A well-followed private group, StoneX, just dropped massive US crop estimates based on their customer survey… and the numbers are way above USDA’s latest! 🌽 Corn Yield: 🔹 188.1 bpa vs. USDA’s 181.0 🔹 16.32B bushels vs. USDA’s 15.71B 🌱 Soybean Yield: 🔹 53.6 bpa vs. USDA’s 52.5 🔹 4.43B bushels vs. USDA’s 4.34B These estimates are based on input from StoneX’s grain-buying customers & agronomists 🧑‍🌾📋  📉 Market Reaction: Corn futures sank again on Monday, with the Dec25 contract hitting a new life-of-contract low at $4.07/bu. Favorable US weather 🌤️ and a record Brazilian crop 🌎🌽 are dragging prices down. 🌾 Crop Conditions: ✅ US Corn: 73% G/E – 2nd best in a decade! ✅ US Soybeans: 69% G/E – Highest since 2020 📉 US Spring Wheat: 48% G/E – down for a 3rd straight week 🚜 Winter Wheat: 86% harvested and nearly wrapped up 🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest: ⏳ Behind last year’s pace, but picking up fast! 📦 Total corn crop pegged at a record 136.3mmt 🚢 Export Inspections: 🔸 Corn: 1.2mmt (📉 21% WoW) 🔸 Soybeans: 612k mt (📈 130% YoY) 🔸 Wheat: 599k mt (📈 107% WoW) 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and share if this info helps you stay ahead of the market! #Corn #Soybeans #GrainMarkets #CropUpdate #StoneX #Futures #USDA #Wheat #AgNews #FarmEconomics 🌾🌽📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Depressing News 0:40 The Funds are Short 2:52 Heat Wave 4:15 US/China Update 5:56 Meal Update 7:41 Wheat 8:42 Flash Sales 🔥 FUND MOVES, HEAT WAVES & TRADE TALK! 🌽🌡️📉 Here's what you need to know this week in grains, weather, and global trade! 👇 📊 🧠 Fund Flows: “The Funds” slightly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week. CFTC data showed: Net sellers of just 181 corn contracts 📉 Heavy net sellers of 34,000 soybean contracts 😬 Largest soybean short since April 🫘 Sold 13,000 SRW wheat contracts 🌾 🌞 🔥 Heat Building in the Corn Belt: Our friends at CropProphet see above-normal temps on the way: 📅 7-day: +2°F above normal 📅 8–14 day: +3.8°F above normal 🌧️ Slightly below-normal rainfall 🤝 US-China Trade Talks Back On? Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says he’s “optimistic” about a deal ✍️ 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Officials met in Stockholm last week 🗓️ Deadline: August 12 👉 But so far, new crop US soybean sales are the worst since 2005... zero Chinese purchases 😳 🌎 China Buys Argentine Meal Again China booked another 30,000mt of Argentine soybean meal 🇦🇷 That’s the 3rd deal since June after years of no activity 💰 Why? Cheaper prices thanks to lower Argentine export taxes (from 31% → 24.5%) 🚢 Wheat Export Slowdown Russia, Ukraine, and the EU — who make up nearly 50% of global wheat exports — are off to a slow start: Russian exports down 30% YoY 📉 Ukraine shipping just 1/3 of last year’s volume Spot prices at Black Sea ports +8% in July 📉 All 3 US wheat futures contracts just hit life-of-contract lows 🌽 Flash Sales! USDA reported two corn flash sales Friday: 352,160mt (14 million bushels) to unknown destinations for 25/26 📉 Stock Market Slump Markets tumbled Friday after weak job data: Dow -1.2% S&P -1.6% Nasdaq -2.2% 👎 Only 73,000 jobs added vs. 100k expected 👀 Fed rate cut odds for September just went up 🧨 Trump tariffs also added pressure 👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more market updates every week!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Corn Yield Bet 3:31 Export Sales 10:41 Flash Sales 11:50 Wet July 15:26 Cattle Selloff 20:11 US Dollar Rally 🎯 US Export Sales Slide While New Crop Corn Surges 🚀 | Drought Relief & Cattle Market Shakeup 🌽💥 📉 Grains in Motion! US corn export sales dropped 47% from last week, landing at just 340,900mt (13 mil bushels). But don’t panic—new crop corn crushed expectations with 1.9mmt (74 mil bushels) in sales! 🙌 🌱 Soybean bulls got a boost too! Net sales hit 349,200mt, exceeding estimates and climbing from last week. New crop beans came in strong at 429,500mt (16 mil bushels). 🌾 Wheat took a step back—592,100mt in sales, down 17%, but still matching the 4-week average. 🚨 Flash Sales Frenzy! The USDA reported a wave of flash sales Thursday: 🇨🇴 100k mt corn to Colombia 🇰🇷 140k mt corn to South Korea ❓ 136k mt corn to unknown destinations 🇳🇬 100k mt of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria 📦 All for 2025/26 delivery! 🌧️ Corn Belt Drought Fades The latest USDA Drought Monitor brought good news: ✅ Conditions improved in MN, IA, IL & IN 📉 Drought in the Corn Belt is now at just 2.4%—down from 32% earlier this year! 📌 National Drought Stats: • Corn: 7% 🌽 • Soybeans: 5% 🌱 • Winter Wheat: 30% ❄️ • Spring Wheat: 38% 🌾 • Cattle: 14% 🐄 📉 Cattle Collapse or Just a Blip? 🐂 After new all-time highs, cattle futures got clobbered Thursday—feeder contracts hit limit down 📉 Some fear the top is in, but remember: this market has bounced back before. With tight supplies & strong beef demand, fundamentals still look solid 💪 💵 Dollar Roars in July The US Dollar Index posted a 5% gain in July—its best month since Dec 2024! 💹 ✅ Resilient economy ✅ Hawkish Fed ✅ Easing trade tensions But beware: tariffs & political pressure could shake things up soon... 👍 Like, subscribe & comment your take on export trends, cattle futures, or the dollar’s next move! #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Cattle #USDollar #DroughtUpdate #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarketing #FarmNews 🌽📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 120mil Soybean Acres 3:38 Soybean Selloff 4:51 Excessive Rain? 7:50 Ethanol Production 8:58 GDP and the Haters 🌱 Brazil's Monster Soy Crop & Market Fallout! 🌎💥 🚨 Big headlines this week from Brazil! DATAGRO pegs their next soybean crop at a jaw-dropping 182.9 MMT 🤯—well above USDA’s 175 MMT estimate. That’s +8.2% from last year’s record. 🇧🇷🌱 Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 120+ million soybean acres, dwarfing the 82.5 million in the U.S. Corn crop? Also record-setting at 140.9 MMT, says DATAGRO. 📈🌽 📉 Soybean futures keep sliding for a fourth straight day. November 2025 dropped nearly 14 cents to $9.96, the lowest since April. Why? 👉 Favorable weather 🌧️, weak Chinese demand 🇨🇳, and bearish momentum across the soy complex. Even soybean meal hit contract lows. Ouch. 🛑 🌧️ Rain, rain, and more rain in parts of the Corn Belt! Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Illinois have been soaked—over 4 inches in just 7 days. Some Iowa counties have seen 12+ inches in the past month! Drier days are expected, but more rain may return next week. ☁️🌦️ ⛽ Ethanol update: Weekly U.S. production hit 1.1 million barrels/day, +1.7% on the week. Stocks rose to 24.7 million barrels, staying well above seasonal norms. Margins? Still solid, per Reuters. 💵🛢️ 📊 The U.S. economy is on fire 🔥! Q2 GDP came in at +3.0%, smashing expectations. The big driver? Imports plunged 30% year-over-year—thanks, tariffs. 🏛️ Fed held rates steady, but the dollar surged, notching its biggest 5-day rally since 2022! 💸🇺🇸 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to like, subscribe, and share if you enjoy staying ahead of the ag game! 🌽📰💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🎥 Severe Storms Slam Midwest + Market Moves & China Soy Woes ⚡🌽💼 Hey everyone! Big weather and market headlines to cover today — let's get into it 👇 0:00 Derecho Update 3:46 Corn and Soybean Price Action 5:45 Govt Payments?? 8:26 Soy Demand Problems (China) 9:30 US/China Talks 10:51 Oil Refiners 🌪️ Midwest Storms Cause Chaos Severe storms tore through the Upper Midwest on Monday night with wind gusts up to 130 mph reported from eastern South Dakota to western Wisconsin. Crops like sorghum sudan and corn were knocked flat in spots, and a South Dakota dairy suffered major structural damage. Tornadoes and large hail also hit parts of Iowa and South Dakota. Was it a derecho? Still unclear. 🤔 💨 CropProphet has a killer wind speed map by county (see below). Despite the destruction, crop damage appears minimal based on early reports. Remember: the 2023 derecho didn’t crush yields either. 🌾 📉 Markets Take Another Hit Corn and soybean futures were down for the 3rd straight session: Dec25 Corn: ⬇️ 3¢ to $4.11/bu Nov25 Soybeans: ⬇️ 2¢ to $10.10/bu Wheat also dropped: Dec25 SRW: ⬇️ 9¢ to $5.50/bu Dec25 HRW: ⬇️ 7¢ to $5.40/bu Cooler weather + rain = bearish sentiment 📉🌧️ 🐖 China Soybean Demand Weakens China’s Q4 soy demand looks soft due to: Record early-year imports Weak feed sector demand Crushing margins still ugly 😬 Some plants have shut down for lack of storage. And still — no US new crop soy sales to China yet. Argentina meal is doing the heavy lifting. 📊 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks Continue Trade talks in Stockholm ended without a new tariff truce agreement, but more discussions are planned. Deadline: August 12. Will Trump approve an extension? Decision coming soon. 🤝🕰️ 🛢️ Refiners vs. Biofuels The AFPM is fighting Trump’s push to boost ethanol mandates to E15, saying it could cost refiners $70 billion. They're also blaming proposed EPA rules for refinery shutdowns — but the real issue may be declining gasoline demand. ⛽📉 👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more ag + market updates every week! #StormDamage #GrainMarkets #ChinaSoy #Derecho #Ethanol #TradeTalks #AgNews #CornBelt #Soybeans #FarmingNews #TrumpTariffs