Excess Returns

This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume. Rosenberg walks through his framework for thinking in probabilities, how AI-driven productivity is distorting economic signals, why the equity market is now driving the economy, and what a “silent contraction” beneath the surface could mean for growth, inflation, and returns. He also outlines how he is positioning portfolios in response to these risks. Rosenberg Researchhttps://www.rosenbergresearch.com Topics Covered Why markets may be a “bubble in behavior,” not technology The equity risk premium at zero and what that implies for future returns CAPE valuations and why long-term returns could be flat to negative The shift from economy driving markets to markets driving the economy The “silent contraction” beneath strong GDP headlines AI-driven productivity vs weakening labor markets The K-shaped economy across consumers, jobs, and capital spending Why the savings rate is the most important overlooked economic variable Inflation outlook: why this shock may be disinflationary, not persistent Portfolio construction in a low-return, high-uncertainty environment Timestamps00:00 Intro04:42 Cycle thinking vs “perma bear” label09:58 Learning probabilistic thinking and Plan B15:52 The “sixth mega bubble” and investor behavior20:36 Why valuations imply poor forward returns25:08 The “silent contraction” beneath headline data29:14 The savings rate and equity wealth effect33:12 Fiscal deficits and artificial economic support38:28 2027 outlook and shifting probabilities43:02 Why expectations matter more than recession calls45:40 Inflation shock vs wage-driven inflation49:22 Productivity boom and disinflation forces53:10 Why inflation may fall faster than expected55:04 Portfolio positioning and diversification strategy01:00:12 Tactical vs thematic investing framework01:03:10 Final thoughts on risk, probabilities, and markets

Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today. Brent also shares practical insights from his trading process, including risk management, journaling, and how to think about positioning and asymmetric opportunities. The conversation spans macro frameworks, behavioral pitfalls, and the evolving nature of market edges, offering a detailed look at how a professional trader navigates uncertainty. Spectra Markets https://www.spectramarkets.com Topics covered: Why stocks need a steady stream of bad news to go down and what drives rallies The impact of constant policy shocks on volatility, positioning, and mean reversion How to distinguish structural trends from short-term trading opportunities The “wall of worry” and why markets can ignore negative headlines The importance of Mag 7 earnings and concentration in today’s market How traders use reassessment triggers like the 200-day moving average The complexity of central bank reactions to oil shocks and inflation Why bonds still matter as a recession hedge despite recent correlation breakdowns How positioning—not fundamentals—drives moves in the U.S. dollar Gold, silver, and Bitcoin through the lens of flows, retail behavior, and debasement The role of overconfidence and risk management in trading success Brent’s journaling process and how writing clarifies thinking How to identify asymmetric trades using potential headline scenarios Why edges in markets are temporary and require constant adaptation Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:05 Government policy shocks and market impact 05:10 Volatility, shocks, and trading frameworks 09:05 Why the economy remains resilient despite rate hikes 13:05 Market concentration and the importance of big tech earnings 16:05 The “steady stream of bad news” framework for stocks 18:30 Using the 200-day moving average and pattern recognition 22:10 Central banks, oil shocks, and inflation dynamics 24:35 Stocks vs bonds and the 60/40 portfolio outlook 26:05 Why dollar moves depend on positioning, not narratives 30:55 Gold, silver, and the retail-driven momentum cycle 34:05 The debasement trade and long-term gold thesis 38:10 Rationality vs overconfidence in trading 41:05 Risk management, journaling, and avoiding blowups 46:00 Thinking in probabilities, positioning, and market expectations 50:55 Journaling as a tool for clarity and discipline 55:00 Why traders lose discipline when over-earning 59:10 Brent’s new book and evolving trading frameworks 01:03:30 Where to find Brent and closing thoughts

Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders. Follow Liz Ann on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders Liz Ann's Research and Commentaryhttps://www.schwab.com/learn/author/liz-ann-sondersTopics Covered How war and oil shocks are impacting markets, inflation, and Fed policy Why the US being a “net energy exporter” doesn’t protect investors The hidden bear market beneath index-level resilience Rotation vs. correction and what it means for portfolios The rise of retail traders and the shift away from “dumb money” Why better or worse data matters more than good or bad data The K-shaped economy and its impact on consumption and markets AI’s three phases and its real impact on jobs and productivity Why this earnings season may be more important than usual The shifting role of the Mag 7 and broader market participation Why the bond market may be the true driver of equities Risks in credit markets and what investors should watch Labor market dynamics and challenges for younger workers How investors and young professionals should think about AI Timestamps 00:00 Intro and current market environment 04:05 Why the US isn’t immune to oil price shocks 05:35 Lessons from past oil shocks and inflation 07:22 Why markets seem resilient despite macro risks 08:00 The hidden drawdowns beneath the index surface 10:13 Rolling recessions and sector-level weakness 10:37 Are investors conditioned to buy every dip 12:58 What happens when the dip doesn’t get bought 14:36 Valuations, corrections, and market structure 15:12 Sentiment analysis in a new market regime 18:50 Retail investors outperforming institutions 20:08 Better or worse vs good or bad economic data 23:00 How markets anticipate economic turning points 25:22 Understanding the K-shaped economy 28:00 Wealth effects and risks from equity declines 29:09 AI as a transformative force vs macro risks 30:00 The three phases of AI development 33:04 Why this earnings season matters more 34:00 Earnings revisions and sector concentration 36:00 The future of Mag 7 leadership vs the rest of the market 38:00 Contribution vs performance in index returns 40:00 Sector sensitivity to inflation and supply chains 42:00 Fundamentals vs speculation in small caps 44:21 The Fed’s dilemma in an oil shock environment 48:00 Why the bond market is driving equities 50:05 Credit markets and systemic risk signals 53:26 Lessons from past bond market dislocations 54:19 Labor market challenges and younger workers 57:00 Career advice in the age of AI 59:26 How Liz Ann uses AI in her research process 01:01:00 Closing thoughts and where to follow Liz Ann

This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect. We explore how today’s environment compares to past inflationary periods, the hidden risks in credit markets and public debt, and what history teaches us about AI investment booms, oil shocks, and monetary disruption. Grant also discusses trust in financial systems, the role of gold, and why markets are always harder in real time than they appear in hindsight. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer https://www.grantspub.com/ Topics Covered: Why war is inherently inflationary and how it strains the productive economy The difference between measured economic stability and underlying systemic risks How inflation shifted from a wartime phenomenon to a permanent feature of modern monetary policy The Fed’s 2% inflation target as a structural form of currency debasement Lessons from the 1970s inflation and oil shocks vs. today’s environment Why inflation is a ratchet that erodes purchasing power over time The importance of trust in credit markets and growing risks in private credit structures Public debt, Treasury market dynamics, and early signs of strain in government financing Historical parallels between AI investment and past technological booms like the internet The role of gold as a hedge against (and investment in) monetary instability The durability of the US dollar despite long-term structural concerns Why investing is always difficult in the present—even when it looks obvious in hindsight Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Jim Grant on the true causes of inflation 04:04 Why war drives sustained inflation and current geopolitical risks 08:00 Historical perspective on inflation before the 1970s 12:00 Oil shocks, Volcker, and lessons from past inflation cycles 16:00 Why inflation never reverses and purchasing power declines 20:00 Trust in markets and the foundation of credit systems 24:00 Private credit risks and the modern credit cycle 28:00 Public debt, Treasury markets, and fiscal sustainability concerns 32:00 Treasury auctions, yields, and early warning signs in bonds 35:25 AI capex boom and lessons from past technological bubbles 38:17 Air conditioning, internet bubbles, and delayed economic payoffs 40:00 The Fed, Treasury, and hidden financial interdependence 44:14 Asset allocation, gold, and monetary disruption 48:44 The dollar’s strength and global dominance 53:41 Why investing is always difficult in real time 59:00 Advice on markets, newsletters, and enduring uncertainty

Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move. They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration. Topics covered: Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertainty The “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quickly How options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock prices Why call options are historically cheap heading into earnings The mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioning Why options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for markets The divergence between oil prices and equity volatility What the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioning The role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market ranges Key resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upside Timestamps: 00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatility For more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work:https://spotgamma.com Follow Brent on Twitter:https://twitter.com/spotgamma

This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s market. The conversation breaks down the AI value chain, challenges common assumptions about where value will accrue, and ties it all back to building durable portfolios in a rapidly changing technological landscape. Tom walks through his “Hype vs High Conviction” framework, explaining why identifying the right layer of the AI ecosystem may matter more than simply betting on the theme itself, and why balance sheets, durability, and capital allocation remain critical even in the most exciting growth environments. Hype vs High Conviction https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/hype-vs-high-conviction_insights/ Topics Covered: Why AI may be the most important investment decision today The four-layer AI stack: applications, LLMs, hyperscalers, and infrastructure Why investors confuse secular trends with investable opportunities Following the money through the AI value chain The hidden risks of investing lower in the stack Why today’s tech leaders differ from the dot-com era Growth vs maintenance capex and what it means for AI economics Why software may be more resilient than markets think How GMO defines “quality” and why it matters in volatile markets Portfolio construction: where GMO is investing (and avoiding) in AI Timestamps:00:00 Intro and framing the AI investment debate00:00:55 Tom Hancock background and focus on quality investing00:02:00 What investors are getting wrong about AI00:03:23 Breaking down the four layers of the AI ecosystem00:06:45 Applications vs infrastructure: where value may accrue00:08:45 Why predicting AI winners is still difficult00:11:00 Following the cash flows through the AI stack00:13:00 Why AI funding is more stable than past tech bubbles00:16:00 Big Tech strategy differences and capital allocation decisions00:17:34 Are today’s tech companies higher quality than in 1999?00:19:00 Growth vs maintenance capex and implications for Nvidia and others00:22:00 Depreciation, chip lifecycles, and hidden risks in capex assumptions00:24:00 Capital intensity vs quality: when heavy investment is a feature00:27:00 Why incumbents may benefit most from AI00:28:30 Risks in the LLM layer and potential commoditization00:30:10 Software disruption fears: overdone or justified?00:34:06 Defining “quality” in investing00:36:00 Balance sheets vs return on capital00:38:32 Why GMO sold Oracle and the risks of leverage00:40:18 What happens if AI spending slows down00:41:35 Where the biggest risks are in the AI stack00:44:26 Where GMO is positioned vs the S&P 50000:48:00 How new ideas enter a quality portfolio00:51:00 Sell discipline and portfolio turnover00:53:00 International vs US quality investing

This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Jim walks through a wide range of charts and frameworks, from the Walmart vs. luxury retail signal to private credit stress, productivity trends, and policy uncertainty, offering a data-driven perspective on where markets and the economy may be headed next. Paulsen Perspectives Substackhttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com Topics Covered Why the recent oil spike hasn’t impacted inflation and interest rates as expected Slowing economic growth vs. recession risk and what the Fed might do next The Walmart vs luxury retail indicator and what it signals about the economy Private credit risks and how they differ from traditional credit crises Why many indicators point to a new bull market rather than a bear The role of sentiment, volatility, and uncertainty in driving market returns Market rotation from mega-cap “new era” stocks to broader market leadership Corporate profits divergence and the opportunity in the rest of the economy Liquidity, cash levels, and positioning as potential fuel for markets Productivity trends and whether AI-driven gains are real or overstated Timestamps00:00 Intro and current macro backdrop01:05 Oil spike and limited impact on yields and inflation04:45 Growth outlook and why recession may still be avoided07:10 Fed policy and the stagflation question10:15 Walmart vs luxury retail indicator explained13:40 Private credit stress vs traditional credit cycles17:00 Why this isn’t 2008 and how balance sheets differ19:50 Private credit risks and market spillover effects22:15 Bear market fears vs signs of a new bull23:45 Consumer confidence and its impact on returns25:05 Oil spikes historically as buy signals26:15 VIX, volatility, and market bottoms27:05 Yield curve steepening and market implications28:05 Sentiment indicators and what they really reflect30:00 Market rotation and broadening beyond mega caps32:45 Passing the baton from tech to broader markets35:15 Corporate profits divergence and future potential37:00 Policy uncertainty and why it can be bullish42:05 Liquidity, cash levels, and risk allocation43:20 Options positioning and put-call signals44:05 Gold vs commodities and risk appetite45:10 Consumer credit contraction and market signals46:20 Polymarket recession probabilities as sentiment47:30 Economic sentiment collapse and contrarian signals48:10 Interest rate expectations and positioning49:05 Unemployment trends and historical market bottoms50:25 Productivity trends and AI impact on the economy

This episode of Excess Returns features Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price discussing how investors can identify “inevitabilities” in technology and position portfolios to benefit from long-term innovation trends. The conversation explores AI, semiconductors, and the evolving investment landscape, while also breaking down Tony’s portfolio construction process and how he navigates cycles, valuation, and disruption risk. Tony explains why AI is fundamentally changing the cost of intelligence, how agentic systems could reshape software and labor markets, and why the current AI buildout may differ from past tech cycles. The discussion also dives into where we are in the AI cycle, how to think about the Mag 7, and what investors may be missing across the tech stack. T. Rowe Price Science and Technology Fund https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/science-and-technology-fund.htmlTopics Covered What it means to invest in “inevitabilities” and separating signal from noise in markets Why AI and compute demand represent a structural shift similar to past tech waves The rise of agentic AI and how it could transform software and productivity Whether AI is underappreciated or already priced into markets The “multiple moons” idea and why AI may not be a winner-take-all market How AI could reshape the labor market, productivity, and economic growth The AI CapEx debate and why this cycle may differ from the dot-com buildout Where we are in the AI cycle: training vs inferencing and deployment phase The impact of AI on software companies and the innovator’s dilemma How semiconductors, memory, and infrastructure remain key bottlenecks The changing nature of the Mag 7 and capital intensity in AI Tony’s portfolio construction framework across compounders, emerging tech, and value How he generates ideas using S-curve adoption and economic bottlenecks Position sizing, risk management, and balancing growth with drawdown control Sell discipline: valuation, fundamentals, and market signals Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Tony Wang overview 01:05 Investing in inevitabilities and long-term thinking 03:00 Differentiating inevitability from hype and consensus 04:45 AI inevitability and the rise of agentic systems 07:00 Cost of intelligence and productivity implications 08:00 Real-world examples of AI adoption (customer service, agents) 09:00 Is AI underappreciated by markets? 11:15 AI as a “space race with multiple moons” 13:30 AI as the dominant driver of markets today 15:00 AI’s impact on jobs, productivity, and the economy 18:30 Creativity, judgment, and the future of work 20:45 Physical AI and robotics opportunity set 22:30 AI CapEx debate vs the dot-com era 25:30 Semiconductors vs software in the AI stack 28:15 AI disruption risk for software companies 31:00 Cyclicality in semiconductors and how AI changes it 33:30 The evolving role of the Mag 7 in AI 36:30 Competition, startups, and AI democratization 38:00 Where we are in the AI cycle today 40:00 Idea generation and S-curve adoption framework 42:30 Case study: memory and AI bottlenecks 44:45 Example position: optical networking and infrastructure 46:40 Portfolio construction and position sizing 49:00 Sell discipline and managing valuation risk

This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next. We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework. More on Katie's Strategies https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/ Topics Covered: Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phase The difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phases Key S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside risk How technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven markets The breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycle Whether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverse Understanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframes Why mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market direction The shift from growth to value and what it means for investors Sector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025 What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assets How a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timing Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal 08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities 12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle 16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice 20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership 24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios 27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics 32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals 36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation 39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy 44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next 47:00 Key signals to watch going forward

In this inaugural episode of our new show, The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu, we explore how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatched—and what that means for investors trying to assess risk, returns, and who ultimately captures value. Subscribe on Spotify Subscribe on Apple The conversation moves from base rates and AI growth expectations to competitive dynamics, capital cycles, and the fundamental shift toward intangible-driven business models that are changing how we think about valuation, moats, and market structure. Papers and Resources Discussed: Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Futurehttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/institutional-investor/insights/consilient-observer/bayes-and-base-rates.html The Impact of Intangibles on Base Rateshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_theimpactofintangiblesonbaserates.pdf Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creationhttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_measuringthemoat.pdf One Job: Expectations and the Role of Intangible Investmentshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_onejob.pdf Capitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economyhttps://books.google.com/books/about/Capitalism_without_Capital.html?id=J3SYDwAAQBAJ A Better Estimate of Internally Generated Intangible Capitalhttps://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01703 Underestimating the Red Queen: Measuring Growth and Maintenance Investmentshttps://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_underestimatingtheredqueen.pdf Explaining the Recent Failure of Value Investinghttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3442539 Guest Links: Michael Mauboussin Twitter Topics Covered: Why OpenAI’s projected growth would be unprecedented in market history How base rates provide a reality check on AI expectations The role of diffusion models and adoption curves in forecasting technology Why massive capital investment in AI may follow past boom-bust cycles Lessons from large-scale infrastructure projects and why timelines break How intangible assets change the distribution of business outcomes The rise of “fat tails” and why more companies now massively win or fail Who captures value in AI across the stack from chips to applications Why competition may drive AI profits toward consumers, not producers How accounting distorts intangible investment and misleads investors Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and OpenAI growth expectations vs historical base rates04:32 Why no company has ever achieved 100%+ sustained growth at scale08:47 Lessons from megaprojects and AI infrastructure buildouts13:18 Intangible assets and why outcomes now have fatter tails18:36 Why big tech is growing faster than historical precedents23:52 Where value accrues in AI and why consumers may benefit most28:21 Barriers to entry in AI including capital, talent, and scale32:47 The risk of overinvestment and historical parallels to past bubbles37:26 Game theory and competitive signaling in AI capital spending41:58 Why investment returns—not “asset light” narratives—drive value46:12 How accounting fails to capture intangible investment properly50:44 Breaking down SG&A into maintenance vs investment spending55:03 Why understanding reinvestment and ROI is the core investing skill59:18 Final thoughts on uncertainty, expectations, and base rates in AI

This episode of Excess Returns features Aahan Menon of Prometheus Research breaking down the growing risk of an inflation shock driven by energy markets and what it means for investors. The discussion explores how a potential shift toward stagflation could challenge traditional stock and bond portfolios and why commodities, trend following, and systematic frameworks may be better suited for the current environment. Prometheus Research https://www.prometheus-research.com Aahan Menon Twitter https://x.com/@AahanPrometheus Why the current inflation shock may be one of the most significant in recent history How oil prices and geopolitical conflict are reshaping macro expectations The growing risk of a stagflationary environment and what it means for portfolios Why traditional 60/40 portfolios may struggle in sustained inflation regimes How expected returns differ across equities, bonds, commodities, and FX Why commodities and energy markets offer the most attractive opportunities today The role of backwardation and supply shocks in driving commodity returns Why consensus earnings expectations may be too optimistic relative to macro reality How inflation flows through the economy from energy to consumer demand The Fed’s dilemma between inflation control and economic slowdown A simple rule for when to own treasuries based on inflation trends Why correlations across asset classes are breaking down in crisis environments How systematic investors manage risk when markets are driven by news and geopolitics The case for trend following as a core portfolio strategy How Aahan’s free trend system works across stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin The behavioral advantages of systematic investing during volatile markets Risks of trend following including whipsaws and false signals How portfolio construction is evolving to include crisis protection and energy overlays 00:00 Inflation shock and why equities and bonds may struggle 01:03 Setting up the macro backdrop before the oil shock 03:12 Labor market slowdown vs strong GDP divergence 04:45 Consumer spending driven by de-saving 05:35 Oil-driven inflation shock as a recession catalyst 07:32 Preparing for stagflation vs disinflationary growth 09:18 Why commodities outperform in inflation regimes 10:45 Expected returns framework across asset classes 12:05 Why commodities and FX offer the best opportunities 14:05 How commodity carry and backwardation work 16:42 Trend following and commodities as pro-cyclical exposures 17:43 Ranking expected returns: energy, FX, bonds, equities 18:51 Challenges of systematic investing in news-driven markets 20:15 Extreme correlations and oil dominating asset pricing 23:47 Earnings expectations vs macro reality gap 28:30 Why the Fed faces an impossible policy tradeoff 30:00 Real-time CPI estimates and inflation pressure 32:00 A rule for when to own treasuries based on CPI 37:30 Stock-bond correlation regime shifts 39:34 How the trend following system works 45:10 Benefits and limitations of trend strategies

This episode explores Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman’s framework for “inflection investing” and how he identifies asymmetric opportunities across global markets. The conversation dives into why he believes U.S. equities are structurally challenged, where he sees better opportunities globally, and how macro, politics, and capital flows drive major investing inflections. Inflection investing and identifying asymmetric opportunities How macro and politics create winners and losers in markets The Argentina case study and why the stock exchange may outperform the country How to structure trades with limited downside and multi-bagger upside Time horizon advantages versus short-term Wall Street thinking Portfolio construction, capital allocation, and when to sell positions Managing risk, leverage, and liquidity during crises and wars Building a “shopping list” during market dislocations Country ETFs vs individual securities in global investing Why Kuppy prefers international markets over the U.S. The structural imbalances in the U.S. economy and stock market Why AI may lead to profitless growth and economic disruption The impact of AI on jobs, margins, and economic demand How inflation distorts economic data and investor perception Finding opportunities in “left for dead” markets like Brazil The role of elections and policy shifts in market inflections How to think probabilistically about investments Avoiding unforced errors and emotional decision-making The importance of long-term thinking in volatile markets Psychology and discipline in global macro investing Harris Kupperman Twitter https://twitter.com/HedgeyeKuppy Praetorian Capital Website https://praetorian-capital.com Timestamps 00:00 Why the U.S. stock market is structurally overvalued 01:14 What “inflection investing” means 02:54 Top-down vs bottom-up investing framework 04:31 Using politics to identify winning trades 05:00 Argentina trade setup and execution 06:20 Why the Argentine stock exchange is the best play 08:00 Earnings inflection and multiple expansion potential 10:37 Time horizon and holding period strategy 13:00 When to exit positions and recycle capital 18:41 How and when to raise cash 19:41 De-grossing the portfolio during crises 23:14 Real-time decision making during war scenarios 27:00 Building a shopping list during dislocations 29:32 ETF vs individual stock decision process 33:22 Why the U.S. is less attractive than global markets 38:17 The problem with AI-driven “growth” 43:31 Monitoring vs acting across global opportunities 48:14 The psychology of long-term investing and edge

This episode of our new market wrap show Last Call breaks down the biggest market drivers right now through three distinct lenses: macro, narrative, and flows. With an oil shock driven by geopolitical conflict, rising volatility, and conflicting economic signals, the discussion focuses on what actually matters beneath the surface and how investors should think about positioning in an environment where nothing is clearly priced in. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Jack and Matt bring together Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, and Eric Pachman to analyze the ripple effects of higher oil prices, the “common knowledge” shift in markets, the role of options flows in driving short-term moves, and why traditional economic indicators like unemployment may be telling a misleading story. Andy Constan Twitterhttps://x.com/dampedspring Ben Hunt Twitterhttps://x.com/EpsilonTheory Brent Kochuba Twitterhttps://x.com/spotgamma Eric Pachman Twitterhttps://x.com/epachman Topics covered: How oil supply shocks impact GDP, inflation, and consumer spending Why higher oil prices act as a tax on the economy and shift growth dynamics The difference between supply shocks and demand shocks in energy markets Why central banks may be unable to respond to an oil-driven slowdown The “common knowledge” framework and how narratives reshape markets Why the Strait of Hormuz has become the key global economic bottleneck Oil exporters vs importers and how that divide is driving asset performance Why energy equities may outperform in a prolonged geopolitical conflict How volatility is being driven by oil prices and geopolitical risk The relationship between VIX and oil during crisis periods Why $100 oil could trigger a major volatility spike and equity selloff The JP Morgan collar trade and how options positioning can pin markets How dealer hedging flows influence short-term price action Why markets may appear disconnected from negative news The limits of predicting what is “priced in” during uncertain environments Why diversification matters more when macro visibility is low How unemployment data can mislead by excluding people leaving the workforce The difference between unemployment rate and labor force participation Structural decline in rural economies and the migration to urban centers How labor force trends explain the divergence in economic experiences across the US Timestamps:00:00 Oil shock as a GDP tax on consumers00:16 Strait of Hormuz as global economic chokepoint00:29 Why $100 oil could send VIX to 5000:39 Why unemployment rate may be misleading01:07 What Last Call is and how the episode is structured02:28 Macro, narrative, and flows framework for markets03:44 How oil supply shocks impact growth and inflation06:00 Why higher oil prices reduce discretionary spending07:00 Oil’s impact on inflation and central bank policy09:39 Scenario analysis for oil prices and market outcomes12:28 Is the oil shock priced into markets?16:00 Why oil vs assets may be mispriced20:00 Ben Hunt on the “common knowledge” market shift25:00 Why the Strait of Hormuz changes everything29:00 Portfolio implications: long energy vs global equities33:00 Brent Kochuba on oil, VIX, and market volatility linkage36:00 Why $100 oil is the key risk threshold for equities40:00 JP Morgan collar trade and market pinning dynamics44:00 Why options flows can override macro narratives short term52:00 Eric Pachman on unemployment vs labor force reality59:00 Structural decline in labor force across US counties

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to break down one of the most debated topics in markets today: private credit. Larry walks through what private credit actually is, why it has grown so rapidly since 2008, and where he believes the biggest misconceptions and risks are for investors. We dig into the structure of the market, how liquidity and credit risk really work beneath the surface, and why the media narrative around private credit may be overstating systemic risks. We also explore how investors should think about diversification, illiquidity premiums, and the potential impact of AI on credit markets and software lending. Larry Swedroe Twitter https://twitter.com/larryswedroe Larry Swedroe Substack https://larryswedroe.substack.com Topics covered What private credit is and how it evolved after the 2008 financial crisis Why private credit is not a single asset class and how risk varies across structures The three key risks in private credit: credit risk, liquidity risk, and concentration risk How illiquidity premiums work and why they can be a major source of return Differences between private credit funds, BDCs, and open architecture platforms Why diversification is critical and how concentration risk can be hidden How rising interest rates are impacting defaults and underwriting standards Media misconceptions around defaults, losses, and valuation marks in private credit The real systemic risk of private credit vs the banking system How liquidity actually works in interval funds and stress scenarios What happens in a recession and how private credit compares to equities and high yield bonds The role of software lending and how AI disruption could impact credit portfolios How to evaluate private credit managers including scale, underwriting, and leverage The importance of credit culture and avoiding “reach for yield” behavior Whether private credit should be accessible to retail investors and the risks involved The concept of earning “beta” in private credit vs trying to pick winning managers AI’s growing role in investment research and the risks of overfitting and false signals Timestamps 00:00 Why private credit is less risky than banks for systemic stability 01:12 Introduction and episode overview 03:00 What private credit is and how it grew after 2008 05:21 Who provides capital to private credit funds 07:11 Why private credit is not a monolithic asset class 08:00 The three key risks in private credit 09:00 Illiquidity premium and why it can be a “near free lunch” 12:00 Credit risk and importance of senior secured lending 16:00 Concentration risk and why diversification matters 18:11 Are defaults rising and what the data actually shows 21:00 Media narratives vs actual credit losses 23:50 Could private credit cause a financial crisis 25:50 How to analyze portfolios and why most investors can’t 28:44 Should investors think about indexing private credit 30:12 Can private credit work for retail investors 32:26 Mass redemption risk and liquidity stress scenarios 36:00 Sources of liquidity inside private credit funds 41:37 Software lending and AI disruption risk 47:00 Private equity valuations and spillover into credit risk 49:43 Key checklist for evaluating private credit investments 56:30 How AI is changing financial research and investing

This episode of Excess Returns features Bob Elliott discussing the growing fragility in the global economy as an oil shock collides with a shift from an income-driven to a savings-driven system. The conversation explores why markets may be mispricing the economic impact of higher oil prices, how inflation and growth dynamics could unfold, and what this means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile macro environment. Bob also breaks down how to think about global macro investing today, including why traditional portfolios may be poorly positioned for a wider range of outcomes, how macro managers are adapting to shifting conditions, and how AI-driven productivity gains could impact economic growth, labor, and markets. Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Unlimited Funds website https://www.unlimitedfunds.com Topics covered The shift from an income-driven economy to a savings-driven economy and why it creates fragility Why an oil shock acts as both an inflation driver and a tax on real consumer spending How higher gas prices mechanically reduce discretionary spending and economic growth Why markets may be underpricing the economic impact of the current oil shock The link between oil prices, inflation expectations, and real demand destruction How global markets respond to shocks through deleveraging and volatility spikes Why gold and other winning trades can fall during risk-off environments The sequencing of inflation first and growth slowdown later in shock-driven cycles How central banks are likely to respond to a stagflationary shock Lessons from 2022 and 2008 for understanding today’s macro environment Why stocks and bonds may both be mispriced in the current regime The difference between consumer surplus and true productivity gains from AI Why AI-driven job losses and economic growth cannot coexist without major dissaving The most likely path for AI as a productivity enhancer rather than a job destroyer How to think about measuring productivity in a technology-driven economy The role of second- and third-order effects in macro investing How global macro strategies identify mispricings across asset classes The concept of using the “wisdom of the crowd” from hedge fund positioning Why macro strategies can perform in both rising and falling markets How macro fits into a portfolio as a diversifier versus long-only assets Why the future investment environment may require broader strategy diversification Timestamps 00:00 Oil shock meets a savings-driven economy 01:00 Framing the macro environment: oil, inflation, and growth 02:12 What a savings-driven economy means for market fragility 04:46 Why household income vs spending divergence matters 07:00 First principles of an oil shock and demand inelasticity 08:00 How oil price spikes flow through to inflation 13:00 Global market reactions and emerging market dynamics 14:00 Deleveraging and volatility driving asset price reversals 15:44 Why gold declines during macro stress events 17:17 Institutional positioning and ETF flows in gold 17:34 Inflation first, growth slowdown later: sequencing the impact 19:24 Is the economic damage already done 22:00 How macro investors operate in low-conviction environments 29:19 What the Fed should do versus what it will do 31:00 Comparing today’s environment to 2022 inflation dynamics 33:00 Why markets are pricing in almost nothing 34:00 AI and the link between labor, income, and spending 37:11 Productivity vs consumer surplus in AI adoption 40:00 Why better tools don’t necessarily mean higher productivity s 46:00 How global macro strategies are constructed 48:00 Using hedge fund positioning as a signal 56:00 Why the opportunity set for macro may be expanding

Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple In this episode of our new show, 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. Applying the work of Michael Mauboussin, the conversation challenges conventional ideas like mean reversion and highlights why a small number of companies drive most stock market returns—and what that means for portfolio construction. This episode brings together Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer to explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. The conversation challenges conventional ideas like mean reversion and highlights why a small number of companies drive most stock market returns—and what that means for portfolio construction. Topics covered • Why markets are driven by extreme outcomes and power laws, not averages • The Best & Bessembinder research showing a handful of stocks create most wealth • Base rates vs outliers and when to trust historical probabilities • Why the 100 bagger framework focuses on studying winners, not predicting them • Portfolio construction as a way to capture asymmetric upside • Buffett’s approach to consistency, durability, and long-term operating history • Inside view vs outside view and how narratives distort investing decisions • Why AI may be breaking traditional base rate assumptions in software and tech • The limits of mean reversion and why it can lead investors astray • Return on invested capital and how competition erodes excess returns over time • Identifying durable moats and why most advantages eventually get attacked • Winner-take-all dynamics and how they shape long-term investing outcomes • The twin engines of returns: earnings growth and multiple expansion • Return on incremental capital as a key driver of long-term compounding • Intangible assets and why accounting understates true business value • Amazon as a case study in misunderstood profitability and reinvestment • AI CapEx cycle and why current spending may not be sustainable long term • Why great businesses matter more than great management in long-term investing Timestamps 00:00 Why extreme outcomes drive stock market returns 01:00 Base rates vs studying 100 baggers 03:00 Power laws and why markets are a game of outliers 05:00 Just 46 companies created half of all market wealth 07:00 Buffett on consistency and long-term operating history 10:00 How to think about base rates in AI, energy, and macro cycles 12:00 Does AI invalidate historical base rates? 15:00 Inside view vs outside view in investment decision making 19:00 Buffett’s “certainty at a discount” framework 23:00 How often investors should evaluate businesses vs prices 29:00 Mean reversion myths and where it breaks down 33:00 Return on invested capital and competitive pressure 36:00 Moats, winner-take-all markets, and long-term dominance 41:00 Twin engines of compounding: growth plus multiple expansion 43:00 Return on incremental capital and forecasting future returns 47:00 Intangibles and why accounting distorts real business value 50:00 Amazon, CapEx cycles, and hidden profitability 53:00 AI infrastructure buildout and the future of returns

Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect could mean for a potential volatility spike and downside move ahead. Brent Kochuba on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/SpotGamma SpotGamma Websitehttps://spotgamma.com Topics covered in this episode • Why volatility looks elevated beneath the surface even as markets remain relatively calm• The growing gap between implied volatility VIX and realized volatility and what it signals• How options expiration OPEX can create turning points in both price and volatility• Why current positioning is unusually put-heavy and what that means for downside risk• The role of market makers and hedging flows in driving market moves• How geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict are changing options behavior and hedging demand• Why correlation is spiking and what it says about investors moving from stock picking to asset allocation• The breakdown of traditional diversification including the 60/40 portfolio• How credit markets and liquidity risks could amplify equity volatility• The impact of zero DTE options and why traders are shifting to longer-duration hedges• The significance of the JP Morgan collar trade and key levels to watch into month-end• Why volatility spikes often follow periods of suppressed market movement• The potential for a sharp upside rally if geopolitical risks suddenly resolve• How options positioning can help both traders and long-term investors with timing decisions Timestamps 00:00 Volatility premium vs low market movement disconnect01:00 Why markets feel calm despite rising risks05:20 Explosion in options volume and impact of Monday Wednesday Friday expirations07:00 How market maker hedging flows drive price movements08:40 Dynamic hedging and why options impact evolves over time09:20 Why OPEX can trigger market turning points10:30 VIX expiration effects and short-term volatility suppression13:00 Negative gamma and how it amplifies market volatility14:10 Why hedging demand remains high despite OPEX clearing16:00 Jump risk scenario and potential VIX spike to 4017:10 Shift from zero DTE trading to longer-term hedging18:00 Put-heavy positioning across equities and indices20:40 Size and significance of the current OPEX event22:20 VIX spike dynamics around expiration23:40 JP Morgan collar trade and key SPX levels25:00 Why OPEX often marks short-term market lows or highs28:30 Review of prior OPEX signals and market setup30:00 Rising correlation and shift to asset allocation mindset32:00 Dispersion breakdown and implications for equities34:00 Software sector volatility and AI disruption narrative36:30 Using options signals for better timing decisions39:00 Correlation spike and risk-off behavior across markets41:30 Why investors are avoiding calls and piling into puts44:30 Cross-asset correlation breakdown and bond hedge failure48:00 Credit market risks and spillover into equities49:00 Extreme VIX vs realized volatility spread50:50 Why realized volatility remains unusually low52:30 Oil, inflation, and macro feedback loops

In this episode, Jared Dillian joins Excess Returns to break down why markets consistently misprice major regime shifts, geopolitical risks, and inflation shocks—and what that means for investors today. The conversation explores how changing correlations, Fed policy constraints, commodities, and portfolio construction are reshaping the investing playbook in 2026. Jared Dillian Twitter https://twitter.com/DailyDirtNap Daily Dirt Nap https://www.dailydirtnap.com Topics Covered Why markets fail to price low-frequency, high-impact events like war and geopolitical shocks The concept of regime change and why investors struggle to adapt to new market environments The breakdown of the 60/40 portfolio and stock-bond correlation in an inflationary regime Commodities bull market dynamics and why energy, agriculture, and hard assets may outperform The role of options and “long gamma” positioning in uncertain macro environments Bitcoin as a liquidity trade vs. store of value and how sentiment drives crypto cycles Fed policy, oil prices, and why central banks follow the “path of least embarrassment” Inflation psychology, consumer behavior, and risks of 1970s-style market conditions Political bias in investing and how ideology shapes portfolio decisions Risks in private equity and private credit, including valuation marks and liquidity issues The Awesome Portfolio framework and why diversification across asset classes reduces drawdowns AI, productivity shifts, and how technological change impacts markets and labor trends Timestamps 00:00 Why markets misprice geopolitical risk and regime change 02:00 Ukraine, Iran, and delayed market reactions to obvious risks 05:00 Overreaction cycles and the Peloton example 06:00 What it means to be long gamma in investing 09:00 Oil volatility and asymmetric risk opportunities 10:00 Regime change explained through stock-bond correlation breakdown 12:00 Non-stationarity and why investing rules constantly change 14:00 Why most investors fail to adapt to new regimes 17:00 Position sizing, risk management, and staying “small” 19:00 Commodities bull market and broad participation across assets 20:30 Bitcoin as a liquidity sponge and sentiment-driven asset 22:00 Fed policy, inflation, and the path of least embarrassment 25:00 Oil-driven inflation vs demand destruction dynamics 27:00 Inflation psychology and real-time indicators 29:00 Are we entering a 1970s-style macro regime 31:00 How political views shape investment strategies 35:00 Learning from past mistakes and adapting to new trends 37:00 Private equity and private credit valuation risks 40:00 Liquidity cycles and refinancing risk in credit markets 43:00 The Awesome Portfolio explained 46:00 Behavior, drawdowns, and why diversification works 49:00 Real estate allocation and portfolio construction 51:00 Labor trends, productivity, and changing work dynamics 54:00 AI productivity boom vs social media drag 57:00 The dangers of consensus thinking and unpopular views

Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. In this episode of Excess Returns, D.A. Wallach, venture capitalist and co-founder of Time BioVentures, joins us to explain how biotech investing works, why development-stage drug companies behave like portfolios of options, and why specialist investors play such a large role in this market. We also explore the cycles that have driven biotech performance, the impact of interest rates and capital flows, and how AI and global competition may reshape the industry in the years ahead. D.A. Wallach – Twitter https://x.com/DAWallach Topics covered include • Why biotech may be one of the last areas where specialist investors can generate persistent alpha • The “bag of options” framework for valuing development-stage biotech companies • How probabilities of drug success and clinical base rates drive biotech valuations • Why rising interest rates hit biotech stocks harder than many other sectors • How capital flows and investor narratives create boom-and-bust cycles in biotech • What happened to biotech during the pandemic surge and the post-COVID downturn • Why AI and tech narratives compete with biotech for investor attention • The role of specialist biotech hedge funds in the public markets • How large pharmaceutical companies drive returns through biotech acquisitions • Differences between biotech venture capital and traditional tech venture investing • How venture investors evaluate drug development programs and scientific evidence • Portfolio construction and diversification when investing in highly uncertain biotech companies • The emerging role of China in clinical trials and global drug development • Whether AI can improve drug discovery, clinical trials, and pharmaceutical R&D productivity • Why investors should avoid rigid value vs growth ideologies and stay adaptable Timestamps 00:00 Why biotech investing requires specialized knowledge 01:40 Is biotech one of the last places for persistent active alpha? 02:45 The “bag of options” model for valuing biotech companies 05:00 Drug development phases and probabilities of success 07:00 Using base rates to estimate clinical trial success 09:20 Estimating total addressable markets for new drugs 11:10 Why rising interest rates hurt biotech valuations 13:00 Capital flows and why biotech underperformed in recent years 15:30 The biotech boom and bust around the COVID pandemic 18:00 How AI and tech compete with biotech for investor capital 22:20 The role of specialist biotech hedge funds 24:00 How pharmaceutical acquisitions drive biotech returns 25:20 How biotech venture capital differs from tech VC 30:50 Why biotech investors must evaluate complex scientific data 34:20 Where AI may improve drug discovery and R&D productivity 42:00 Portfolio construction and diversification in biotech venture investing 44:30 Volatility, valuation marks, and private market pricing 48:00 Managing risk across different drug technologies and disease areas 49:30 Why China is becoming important for clinical trials 53:00 Why biotech investing must be viewed as a global industry 54:30 The importance of flexibility between value and growth investing 58:50 Will investing become more systematic and quantitative over time

Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify⁠ ⁠Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Apple In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.Topics Covered • Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change• Jim Paulsen’s framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets• Jim Paulsen’s concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap tech Timestamps 00:00 Introduction02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle37:44 AI’s deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market

On this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Rainwater Equity ETF portfolio manager Joseph Shaposhnik about how long-term investors should think about markets in an era defined by geopolitical shocks, AI disruption, and unprecedented capital investment cycles. The conversation explores how disciplined investors can stay focused on durable businesses and long-term free cash flow rather than reacting to short-term headlines. Joseph explains how his team evaluates companies during major events, why the AI boom may create both massive disruption and opportunity, and where he believes the most attractive investment opportunities exist today. Topics covered in this episode • Why most macro headlines and geopolitical events rarely have lasting impacts on great businesses • How long-term investors should analyze conflicts and market shocks without overreacting • The defense spending supercycle and why aerospace and defense may benefit from rising geopolitical tensions • How Joseph evaluates the AI investment cycle across semiconductors, software, and hyperscalers • Why semiconductor companies may offer a lower-risk way to benefit from AI growth • The risks created by massive AI infrastructure CapEx and concentration around specific AI models • Why some software companies may face significant disruption from AI tools and LLMs • How AI could reshape business models that rely on packaging public or commoditized data • The potential rotation from the Magnificent Seven to the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 • Why capital intensity may change the long-term attractiveness of some technology companies • The role of management quality and capital allocation in navigating technological disruption • Fragile vs anti-fragile business models in an AI-driven economy • Where AI may create unexpected winners across industrial and traditional industries • Why long-term investors should still prioritize durable cash flow compounding businesses Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why most headlines have limited long-term impact on businesses 02:00 How experienced investors think about geopolitical shocks and market headlines 04:00 Defense spending tailwinds and the aerospace and defense supercycle 06:45 How investors should react when major market news breaks 11:10 How Joseph evaluates the AI boom and which companies benefit most 14:15 The case for opportunities outside the Magnificent Seven 17:15 How rising AI CapEx is changing the economics of major tech companies 21:25 Why hyperscalers face increasing concentration risk 23:00 Why semiconductor suppliers may be the best positioned AI investments 27:15 Why Joseph reduced exposure to software companies 33:00 The importance of learning organizations and adaptive management teams 37:00 AI, labor markets, and whether high-income jobs face disruption 41:00 Fragile vs anti-fragile companies in the age of AI 46:00 Where AI could create unexpected business winners 52:00 How great management teams adapt during technological disruption 57:00 How AI may accelerate entrepreneurship and innovation 59:00 Why investors should remain focused on sustainable cash flow 01:02:00 What the next generation of long-term compounders may look like

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO of Investment Management Associates and author of Soul in the Game. The conversation explores how value investing is evolving in a world shaped by artificial intelligence, rapidly changing economic dynamics, and historically high market valuations. Vitaliy discusses why humility and diversification are increasingly important for investors today, how to balance quality and valuation when selecting stocks, and what he has learned about selling decisions, portfolio construction, and long-term investing discipline. The discussion also moves beyond markets into deeper ideas about passion, creativity, and why investing, like art, is ultimately a creative pursuit driven by curiosity and lifelong learning. Topics covered in this episode Why high stock market valuations may create a headwind for future returns The math behind long-term stock market returns and the role of earnings growth versus valuation changes Whether the dominance of mega-cap technology companies represents a structural shift in markets Why AI investment could lead to both massive innovation and large amounts of wasted capital The importance of humility in investing during periods of rapid technological and economic change Why Vitaliy increased the number of stocks in his portfolio due to greater uncertainty How investors can think about what will not change in a rapidly evolving world The evolution from statistical value investing to focusing on business quality and management Why cheap stocks are often expensive and how narrative bias can trap value investors The importance of evaluating management integrity and avoiding companies with questionable leadership How Vitaliy thinks about selling decisions and recognizing when an investment thesis is broken Why many investors make their biggest mistakes by selling winners too early The concept of being a value buyer but a growth holder when fundamentals improve Why updating valuation models as businesses improve is critical to capturing long-term upside Lessons learned from great investors and the importance of surrounding yourself with thoughtful peers The idea of building a personal operating system for investing and life Passion, patience, and process as the three pillars of long-term investment success Why investing is fundamentally a creative pursuit similar to art and music The deeper motivations behind investing and why for many great investors it is not ultimately about money Timestamps 0:00 Vitaliy on humility and why the range of outcomes in investing is expanding 2:00 The math behind long-term stock market returns 4:00 Why high valuations can become a headwind for future returns 6:00 Big tech growth and whether large companies now have structural advantages 8:00 AI investment and the risk of massive capital misallocation 10:30 Learning AI and why investors must adapt to rapid technological change 14:00 Why humility leads to diversification and larger portfolios 20:00 The evolution from cheap stocks to quality investing 25:30 Selling discipline and recognizing when a thesis is broken 34:30 Letting winners run and avoiding the mistake of selling too early 42:00 Learning from other great investors and building your own framework 44:30 Passion, patience, and process in investing 52:00 Why great investors are motivated by more than money 1:01:40 The connection between investing, creativity, and classical music

Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Apple In this new weekly Excess Returns recap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler highlight the most important investing insights from recent conversations across the Excess Returns podcast network. Drawing on discussions with Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Kai Wu, Ben Hunt, Rupert Mitchell, Meb Faber and others, the episode connects ideas across macro, markets, AI, credit cycles and valuation. The conversation focuses on timeless investing principles investors can apply today, including how to evaluate expert opinions, how AI may reshape markets and jobs, what defines a true market bubble, why international stocks may be benefiting from global fiscal spending, and why the best opportunities in markets often come after long periods of underperformance. Topics covered in this episode How to evaluate expert opinions during major market events and filter signal from noise Andy Constan’s framework for judging credibility based on experience and confidence Why charts showing markets rising after wars are often misleading data mining The difference between believing in AI technology and believing AI stocks are good investments How AI could both replace and augment human work through the task based structure of jobs Rob Arnott’s definition of a market bubble using implausible growth assumptions Why many technology leaders ultimately fail to justify the expectations priced into their stocks The difference between software companies whose moat is code and those with durable intangible advantages How brand, switching costs, distribution and network effects protect enterprise software companies Why AI may be one of the most disruptive technologies in history and what that means for markets Meb Faber on the myth that the easy money has already been made in international and value stocks The behavioral challenge of holding unpopular strategies through long periods of underperformance Rob Arnott on why small cap value could outperform large cap growth over the next decade Ben Hunt on the point in every credit cycle when lenders say no more How rising costs of capital can trigger boom bust credit cycles Rupert Mitchell on why global equity markets often follow government fiscal spending The growing role of international fiscal policy and capital flows in global market leadership Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the weekly Excess Returns recap show03:00 Andy Constan on how to evaluate experts and filter market commentary11:40 Why charts showing markets rising after wars can be misleading17:00 Kai Wu on AI technology versus AI investments and the future of work25:37 Rob Arnott on how to define a market bubble using valuation assumptions29:35 Kai Wu on software moats, intangible assets and enterprise software durability35:31 Rob Arnott on how disruptive AI could be for the global economy39:54 Meb Faber on why the easy money has never been made in markets43:57 Rob Arnott on small cap value versus large cap growth opportunities48:39 Ben Hunt on credit cycles and the moment lenders pull back55:56 Rupert Mitchell on fiscal spending and global equity market performance

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today’s markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader economy, and why leadership in the stock market may be shifting. The conversation also explores the market implications of geopolitical conflict, the relationship between policy and market leadership, and how investors should think about AI’s long-term economic impact. Topics covered in this episode How geopolitical events like the Iran conflict affect markets, volatility, oil prices, and investor sentiment Why market reactions to geopolitical shocks often fade once the situation is “vetted” by investors The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and global financial markets Why Paulsen remains constructive on international stocks and emerging markets despite recent volatility Why energy and food now represent a much smaller share of consumer spending than in past inflation cycles The argument that inflation fears may be overstated given structural disinflationary forces in the economy How AI and technological innovation can destroy some jobs while simultaneously creating new economic demand Why technological progress often lowers costs and expands markets rather than simply eliminating work The concept that the “new economy” driven by technology investment is now large enough to influence overall GDP growth Paulsen’s analysis showing that roughly 11 percent of the economy tied to new-era investment is growing rapidly while the remaining 89 percent is barely growing Why the broader economy may resemble a recession even while headline GDP remains positive How the dominance of large technology companies in indexes like the S&P 500 may be masking weakness in the broader market The historical “toggle” between technology leadership and broader market leadership in equity markets Why policy conditions like the yield curve and monetary easing often drive leadership shifts toward value, small caps, and cyclical stocks Whether the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy without a traditional recession Why policy support may eventually broaden the bull market beyond technology stocks Timestamps 0:00 Jim Paulsen on geopolitical volatility, oil prices, and market reactions2:50 How investors should think about the Iran conflict and market implications10:50 The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and safe-haven flows12:20 Why Paulsen likes international and emerging market stocks14:30 Why higher oil prices may not lead to sustained inflation18:40 AI disruption and the economic debate around jobs and productivity23:00 How innovation historically creates new demand and economic growth29:40 Technology is the tail wagging the economic dog33:30 Why the “new economy” is growing far faster than the rest of the economy37:00 Evidence that most of the economy may already resemble a recession41:00 Profit growth disparity between technology and the rest of the economy45:40 Why the stock market can mask weakness in the broader economy46:30 The historical leadership toggle between tech and the broader market49:00 Valuation differences between technology and other sectors50:30 How policy conditions influence market leadership55:00 Signs that leadership may already be shifting beyond tech57:00 Could the Fed ease without a traditional recession59:00 What a policy shift could mean for the next phase of the bull market

Rob Arnott returns to Excess Returns to discuss the biggest questions facing investors today, including the impact of geopolitical conflict, the valuation gap between U.S. and international markets, the long-term investment implications of artificial intelligence, and why extreme spreads between growth and value may present major opportunities. Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of fundamental indexing, explains why AI itself is not necessarily a bubble but many AI stocks may be priced for implausible growth. He also discusses why small cap and value stocks may offer some of the most compelling long-term opportunities in decades, how market narratives drive valuations, and why diversification beyond the U.S. could be critical for investors. Throughout the conversation, Arnott draws on decades of market history to explain how bubbles form, why profit margins tend to mean revert, and how investors should think about positioning portfolios for the next market cycle. Topics covered in this episode: • Why Rob Arnott believes AI is real but many AI stocks may be in a bubble • How market narratives can push valuations far beyond fundamentals • Why U.S. stocks trade at roughly twice the valuation multiples of international markets • The widening valuation gap between growth and value stocks • Why small cap stocks may be one of the most attractive opportunities today • The massive capital spending required to build the AI ecosystem • How technological revolutions historically destroy jobs but create new opportunities • Why investors should learn to use AI tools to remain competitive • The definition of a market bubble based on implausible growth expectations • Lessons from the dot-com bubble and the history of dominant technology companies • Why profit margins tend to mean revert over time • The long-term outlook for international stocks and diversification • How fundamental indexing works and why it can create rebalancing alpha • The concept of the “Trifecta” approach combining value, core indexing, and growth • The risks of conglomerate premiums and the diversification discount • Why the largest companies in the market rarely remain dominant over long periods • How investors should think about balancing growth exposure with cheaper opportunities Timestamps: 00:00 AI vs AI Stocks: Why Arnott Sees a Bubble 00:01 Introduction to Rob Arnott and Research Affiliates 02:13 The Iran Conflict and How War Impacts Markets 06:41 U.S. Valuations vs International Opportunities 08:50 The Extreme Spread Between Growth and Value 10:00 The Small Cap Opportunity and Index Effects 13:08 The Citrini AI Paper and Long-Term Technology Shifts 14:09 How Technological Revolutions Destroy and Create Jobs 16:00 How AI Is Already Changing Investment Research 20:00 Why AI Tools Are Still Losing Money 23:40 How Investors Should Think About AI Exposure 25:21 Arnott’s Definition of a Market Bubble 27:41 Lessons from the Dot-Com Bubble 28:34 Profit Margins and Mean Reversion 30:34 Technology Moats and Competitive Disruption 32:12 Will Mean Reversion Still Work in Markets? 36:02 The Case for International Stocks 41:39 The Trifecta: A New Framework for Indexing 51:15 Why Expensive Slow-Growth Companies Underperform 56:25 Conglomerate Premiums and Mega Cap Tech 57:00 The Long-Term Case for Value and Small Caps 01:00:00 Why Market Leaders Rarely Stay on Top

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitical risk, AI and productivity, capital flows, credit markets, fiscal policy, and the shift from US to international equities. Andy walks through the framework he uses to evaluate uncertainty, from wars and geopolitical shocks to the long-term implications of artificial intelligence, and explains why capital markets and funding conditions may matter more than bold narratives. We also explore growth, inflation, Fed policy, and the structural case for global diversification in today’s macro environment. Main topics covered A practical framework for analyzing geopolitical shocks, including red flags, green flags, and how to evaluate information quality during times of uncertainty How markets are pricing the current conflict with Iran across oil, equities, bonds, gold, and volatility Why historical market performance after wars may offer limited predictive value due to small sample sizes How to think about AI from a macro perspective, including GDP growth versus GDP share and who ultimately captures the gains The capital markets implications of massive AI-related capex and whether equity and credit markets can fund current spending plans Growth, inflation, and the Fed: how fiscal stimulus, wealth effects, QT, and labor market trends are shaping the current macro backdrop Why Andy has shifted away from US assets toward international markets, including the role of bond yields and global risk parity A critical look at the Trump accounts proposal and the broader issue of fiscal deficits and capital allocation The key risks Andy is watching over the next three to six months, especially around credit markets and funding conditions Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and overview of discussion topics 01:01 Framework for evaluating geopolitical shocks and information quality 11:46 Market reaction to the Iran conflict and asset pricing implications 23:00 Why historical war data may not be reliable for market forecasting 27:03 How to analyze AI’s impact on productivity and economic growth 37:00 AI capex, credit markets, and funding risks 42:24 Growth, inflation, and Fed policy in the current cycle 49:20 The case for international equities over US markets 56:20 Trump accounts, fiscal policy, and capital allocation 01:02:23 What Andy is watching most closely in the months ahead

In this episode, Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down the viral “AI doom loop” article that sparked debate across Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and even the Federal Reserve. They walk through the core thesis that artificial intelligence could trigger a non-cyclical economic disruption, separating signal from noise and exploring what it could mean for software stocks, labor markets, productivity, wealth inequality, and long-term investing. Rather than reacting emotionally, they analyze the mechanics step by step, asking whether AI is more likely to replace workers or amplify them, how fast adoption can realistically happen, and what investors should be watching right now. Main topics covered: The core thesis behind the AI doom loop scenario and why it went viral Is AI a substitute for human labor or a productivity multiplier People times productivity as a framework for understanding economic growth Why we are not yet seeing major AI disruption in labor or productivity data Software stocks, margin compression, and the risk to SaaS business models The Jevons Paradox and whether lower costs could expand demand instead of destroy it Why incumbents with strong intangible moats may survive AI disruption The difference between technological capability and real world adoption speed Compute, energy, and token costs as natural limits on AI expansion The feedback loop argument and whether AI could cause a demand shock Creative destruction and the difficulty of forecasting new job creation AI, high income knowledge workers, and the risk to consumer spending Wealth inequality, capital versus labor, and policy responses like UBI Why investors can be bullish on AI technology but cautious on markets How to think about short term disruption versus long term abundance Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the AI doom loop thesis 02:15 Why the article triggered a market reaction 06:00 People times productivity and economic growth 09:00 AI and disruption in software stocks 15:00 Jevons Paradox and expanding total demand 19:00 AI agents, frictionless commerce, and price competition 26:00 Adoption speed versus technology speed 28:00 Compute constraints and natural governors on AI growth 31:00 The non cyclical disruption feedback loop 33:00 Creative destruction and new job formation 38:00 General purpose technology and broad economic exposure 44:00 Replacement versus augmentation of workers 48:00 Token costs, enterprise AI spending, and labor tradeoffs 51:00 High income job risk and inequality concerns

Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠ ⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts In this episode of Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler look past the headlines to unpack what really moved markets this month. From the viral AI end of times scenario that sparked responses from Citadel, Fed Governor Waller, and Jeremy Siegel, to the growing stress in private credit and the rotation out of US mega cap stocks, this is a different kind of market wrap. Instead of recapping what the S and P 500 did, we explore what investors are actually doing with their money, how narratives shape positioning, and what the data says about whether this time is different. Featuring Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma, Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro, and Meb Faber of The Idea Farm, this episode dives into AI, software stocks, options flows, credit cycles, global equity markets, gold, and the power of base rates in investing. Main topics covered: The viral AI bear case scenario and why a fictional narrative moved real markets How investors should think in probabilities, bull cases, base cases, and bear cases What options pricing and put call ratios reveal about real fear versus social media fear The state of software stocks and whether extreme bearishness may have marked a short term bottom Private credit stress, rising default risks, and why every credit cycle ends when lenders say no more An on the ground anecdote from San Francisco illustrating how refinancing risk is playing out in real time The rotation from US mega caps into international stocks and why fiscal spending matters for equity markets Gold and gold miners as potential beneficiaries of global liquidity and currency shifts Why base rates matter when evaluating explosive AI revenue forecasts Historical lessons from the Nifty Fifty, Japan’s bubble, the dot com era, and other periods when investors believed this time is different Portfolio construction tools including diversification, rebalancing, and trend following in bubble environments Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the AI end of times narrative02:16 Why investors are responding to fiction and what we can learn from it08:00 Brent Kochuba on options flows and software stock positioning13:00 Has extreme bearishness in software marked a bottom19:55 Ben Hunt on private credit and the boom bust cycle27:00 A San Francisco refinancing story and when lenders say no33:08 Rupert Mitchell on global markets, fiscal spending, and gold44:22 Meb Faber on base rates, bubbles, and this time is different01:00:16 How to track AI’s real world impact in corporate data If you enjoy deep dives into investing, AI, market structure, credit cycles, global equities, and evidence based portfolio construction, be sure to subscribe to Excess Returns for more conversations like this.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Cullen Roche to discuss his new book Your Perfect Portfolio and the deeper principles behind building a portfolio that actually fits your life. Rather than starting with asset allocation models or return forecasts, Cullen reframes investing around risk, time horizons, and lifetime consumption. We explore how to think about stocks, bonds, factor investing, international diversification, private assets, inflation hedges, and more through the lens of financial planning and asset liability matching. This is a practical, wide ranging conversation about portfolio construction, behavioral risk, and how investors can align their investments with real world goals. Main topics covered: Why you are a saver, not an investor, and why that distinction matters Defining risk as uncertainty of lifetime consumption The temporal conundrum and matching investments to time horizons Human capital as your most important asset and how it impacts portfolio risk The pros and cons of a 100 percent stock allocation Rethinking the 60 40 portfolio after inflation and rising rates International diversification and valuation differences between US and global markets Factor investing as a time horizon tool rather than an alpha strategy The forward cap portfolio and skating to where the market cap puck is going Inflation protection strategies including stocks, TIPS, gold, and the permanent portfolio Risk parity and the tradeoff between diversification and return Countercyclical rebalancing and managing behavioral risk Private equity, venture capital, and the illiquidity premium Defined duration investing and asset liability matching for individual investors The real impact of inflation, taxes, and fees on long term returns Timestamps: 00:00 Risk as lifetime consumption and asset liability matching 01:03 Introduction to Your Perfect Portfolio 05:25 You are a saver, not an investor 08:24 Defining risk and uncertainty of lifetime consumption 10:15 The temporal conundrum and time horizons 12:38 Using past performance and forecasting responsibly 15:00 Human capital and portfolio construction 17:12 The case for a 100 percent stock allocation 19:50 Rethinking the 60 40 portfolio 24:00 Adding international diversification 29:43 Factor investing across time horizons 35:00 The forward cap portfolio concept 38:27 Inflation hedges and the permanent portfolio 42:27 Risk parity explained 44:49 Countercyclical rebalancing 47:17 Private assets and illiquidity 51:25 Defined duration strategy and Discipline Funds ETFs 56:00 Real returns after inflation, taxes, and fees If you are interested in portfolio construction, asset allocation, financial planning, factor investing, inflation protection, or building a long term investment strategy that matches your goals, this conversation offers a thoughtful framework for thinking differently about risk and returns.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Russell of Business Breakdowns to explore how AI is actually being used in investing today. We go beyond the hype and break down practical use cases for AI in portfolio management, stock research, due diligence, monitoring, and idea generation. From deep research models and agentic AI to prompt engineering and workflow design, this conversation walks through how professional investors can use AI tools to increase productivity, improve decision-making, and reduce blind spots without losing their edge. If you are an asset manager, analyst, allocator, or DIY investor wondering how AI will impact investing and stock picking, this episode offers a clear, practical roadmap. Main topics covered: The evolution from early large language models to deep research and agentic AI for investors LLMs vs agent-based AI and why the distinction matters for investment research How AI fits into an investor’s workflow, from due diligence to portfolio monitoring Using AI to monitor KPIs, earnings calls, and cross-industry signals in real time How AI can help kill bad ideas faster and surface deal breakers early Prompt engineering for investors, including mindset framing, audience targeting, and output design Building mental models into AI systems to reflect your investment philosophy AI tech stacks for investors, including writing tools, deep research models, and browser-based AI Iteration, experimentation, and standardized testing of prompts across model upgrades The impact of AI on alpha generation, active management, and generalist vs specialist investors Organizational adoption strategies for investment firms considering AI Customization, agentic workflows, and what AI in investing could look like five years from now Timestamps: 00:00 How AI tools increase investor productivity 01:16 Why early ChatGPT was a head fake for investors 03:07 The inflection point with deep research and agentic AI 05:00 LLMs vs agents explained in plain English 07:01 Where AI fits inside an investment workflow 09:28 Replacing manual earnings transcript work 11:40 Real-time monitoring and AI alerts 19:24 Using AI to kill bad investment ideas faster 22:01 Trust but verify, hallucinations and safeguards 25:29 Matt’s AI tech stack for investing 30:00 Prompt engineering breakthroughs 33:00 Standardized experimentation across new AI models 36:07 Building idea generation prompts step by step 40:15 Using AI as an editor and critical reviewer 43:50 Does AI compress investor skill differences 46:10 How funds should adopt AI internally 50:40 Fear of falling behind in asset management 53:05 Generalists vs specialists in an AI world 55:18 AI and the pursuit of alpha 57:00 Customization, agents and the future of investing 01:01:10 Coding agents and building tools with AI

Subscribe to Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify Subscribe to Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Apple In this episode, we explore one of the most important but overlooked questions in investing: what is the purpose of your portfolio? Through a series of powerful clips and reflections from Aswath Damodaran, Meb Faber, Ben Hunt, Cullen Roche, Corey Hoffstein, Daniel Crosby, Larry Swedroe, and Wes Gray, we examine how goals like financial freedom, funded contentment, liability driven investing, retirement planning, and multi generational wealth shape the way we invest. This conversation goes beyond beating the market and focuses on preserving and growing wealth, reducing financial stress, aligning money with meaning, and defining what a life well lived truly looks like. Topics covered include: Why the end game of investing matters more than beating the market Preserving and growing wealth vs trying to get rich Freedom as the ultimate goal of financial independence Funded contentment and what it means to live a life well lived Liability driven investing and matching assets to future needs The difference between getting rich and staying rich Needs vs desires and understanding marginal utility of wealth Retirement planning and redefining success beyond a number Multi generational wealth and thinking beyond your own lifetime The psychological impact of growing up with or without money Financial freedom, stress reduction, and peace of mind Tactical financial goals vs long term purpose driven investing Education, legacy, and investing in the next generation Why once you win the game you may not need to keep playing Timestamps: 00:00 Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth10:04 Meb Faber on freedom, contentment, and the hedonic treadmill22:36 Ben Hunt on funded contentment and finding your pack28:23 Cullen Roche on risk as uncertainty of consumption33:25 Corey Hoffstein on liability driven investing and not worrying about money41:50 Daniel Crosby on financial freedom and living life on your own terms47:33 Larry Swedroe on needs vs desires and staying rich55:54 Wes Gray on big blue arrows, tactical goals, and peace of mind

Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple In this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski continue their conversation with Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer, diving deeper into general semantics and what it means for investors navigating AI enthusiasm, market volatility, benchmark obsession, and the gamification of markets. From Warren Buffett’s cathedral versus casino metaphor to the risks hiding in so-called “safe” consumer staples stocks, this discussion explores how language, expectations, and mistaken certainty shape investment decisions. If you want to think more clearly about markets, technology, valuation, and your own reactions as an investor, this episode offers a powerful mental framework. Topics Covered What general semantics is and how language influences how investors think IFD disease idealism frustration demoralization and how unrealistic expectations impact markets AI hype, capital spending, and the prisoner’s dilemma facing major tech companies Warren Buffett’s cathedral versus casino metaphor and what it means for investors today Why beating the S and P 500 may not be the right benchmark for success The gamification of markets, retail trading growth, and the shift from long-term investing to speculation Terminal value risk in software stocks amid AI disruption Why low volatility “warm fuzzy” stocks like consumer staples may be more dangerous than they appear Expectations investing, confidence versus overconfidence, and avoiding mistaken certainty The map is not the territory and how to avoid confusing models with reality Everything is connected to everything else markets as biological systems rather than mechanical systems Delayed gratification, compounding, and why wealth is built later in the investment journey Timestamps 00:00 Cathedral versus casino capitalism and the market metaphor02:00 What is general semantics and why it matters for investors03:00 IFD disease unrealistic expectations and AI hype06:40 Outperformance, Bill Miller, and unrealistic return expectations09:00 Are market benchmarks the right way to measure success12:00 What if stock market indexes did not exist14:00 Public versus private markets and myopic loss aversion18:40 Compounding, volatility, and delayed gratification21:00 AI valuations, strategic capital spending, and economic returns24:20 The AI adoption cycle frustration and demoralization30:40 The man in overalls story and delaying reactions33:30 Warren Buffett cathedral versus casino metaphor revisited35:00 Gamification of markets passive flows and species shift in investing39:00 When to sit still versus when to act in volatile markets43:00 Mistaken certainty and the biggest risks in today’s market45:00 The hidden risk in consumer staples and low volatility stocks47:20 Expectations investing confidence versus overconfidence49:40 Everything is connected markets as living systems53:00 What success really means beyond beating an index56:20 The map is not the territory final lessons for investors

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jason Hsu returns for a wide-ranging conversation on China’s economy, the global AI race, emerging markets, factor investing, and what the next phase of globalization could mean for U.S. investors. We explore how China’s fiercely competitive domestic capitalism contrasts with common Western narratives, why AI could reshape professional services the way globalization reshaped manufacturing, and how investors should think about portfolio allocation in a shifting G2 world. This discussion covers China manufacturing dominance, Chinese EV competition, U.S. vs. China AI strategy, emerging markets investing, factor investing in inefficient markets, and how machine learning is changing quantitative portfolio management. Main topics covered Why U.S. investors misunderstand China’s economic system and the role of competition inside its domestic market How China became the world’s manufacturing powerhouse and what that means for tariffs and trade wars The Chinese government’s role as a venture-style capital allocator rather than a central planner The real estate reset in China and the shift toward technology, AI, and advanced manufacturing AI as the next wave of globalization and its impact on professional services and labor markets Whether the U.S. vs. China AI competition is truly winner-take-all Capital expenditure intensity in the U.S. vs. capital efficiency and open-source innovation in China U.S. exceptionalism, G2 geopolitics, and portfolio diversification beyond a U.S.-centric allocation Why emerging markets ex-China may differ from China tech exposure The case for separating China from emerging markets in asset allocation The concept of China as an alpha reservoir due to retail-driven market inefficiencies Why traditional value and factor strategies have struggled in the U.S. but still work in China How machine learning and AI are changing quantitative investing and factor construction The launch of CNQQ and accessing large-cap China technology exposure Timestamps 00:00 China as the world’s factory and the role of fierce internal competition 01:02 Why U.S. investors misunderstand China’s economy 03:48 Is China capitalist despite the Communist Party label 05:33 The government as a VC-style investor rather than central planner 07:45 China EV competition and manufacturing dominance 09:23 Tariffs, trade leverage, and manufacturing monopoly dynamics 12:18 China’s bear market and valuation opportunity 13:59 The real estate reset and shift toward productive capital 16:00 AI as the next wave of globalization 18:01 Labor force participation and economic disruption from AI 19:46 Jobs that may survive in an AI-dominated world 22:00 Is U.S. vs. China AI a winner-take-all battle 24:13 Chip restrictions and long-term innovation incentives 26:54 Capital efficiency in China vs. heavy AI capex in the U.S. 29:27 Rebalancing away from U.S.-centric portfolios 31:18 The end of U.S. exceptionalism and the move toward a G2 world 34:00 How endowments approach U.S., developed, and emerging markets 36:35 CNQQ and accessing China large-cap technology 40:45 China as the great alpha reservoir 45:49 The future of factor investing in efficient vs. inefficient markets 49:06 Machine learning, factor decay, and next-generation quant strategies 55:17 Can AI replace active portfolio managers If you enjoy deep conversations on global markets, AI investing, China technology, emerging markets, and quantitative strategies, make sure to subscribe to Excess Returns for more interviews with leading investors and thinkers.

Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler sits down with Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth and Dave Nadig of ETF.com for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro data, positioning, tokenization, AI productivity, and the narratives driving investor behavior. The discussion dives into consensus forecasts, the K-shaped economy, international equity performance, dollar positioning, AI capex, and whether the biggest market moves are driven by fundamentals or liquidity shifts. Along the way, they explore tokenization in financial markets, stablecoins, Fed balance sheet dynamics, and how AI is quietly reshaping productivity for small businesses and individuals. This episode is a deep dive into stock market trends, economic data distortions, asset allocation shifts, and the structural forces shaping the investing landscape in 2026. Main topics covered: • Why consensus forecasts are average and why that creates risks for investors• Cyclical reacceleration narrative versus liquidity-driven market rotation• The K-shaped economy and distortions in US jobs data• Healthcare hiring versus cyclical employment weakness• AI capex spending and who actually benefits• Energy, industrials, and staples outperformance versus tech concentration• International equities versus US stocks and valuation percentiles• US dollar positioning extremes and contrarian signals• Positioning versus narrative and where market surprises hide• Tokenization, decentralized finance, and DTCC proposals• Stablecoins, collateral efficiency, and capital reuse in markets• Fed balance sheet, leverage ratios, and financial system risk• AI productivity gains in small and mid-sized businesses• The future of work, automation, and economic dispersion Timestamps: 00:00 Cameron on cyclical reacceleration and market expectations03:00 Consensus forecasts and average return assumptions06:00 K-shaped economy and distorted jobs data10:00 AI capex and disconnect between perception and reality12:30 Liquidity shifts and market rotation beyond mega caps14:00 International equity valuations and performance gap16:50 Dollar positioning and contrarian signals18:20 Positioning versus narrative in stock performance20:00 Tokenization and ETF market plumbing22:00 Stablecoins and capital efficiency24:00 Atomic settlement versus traditional clearing27:00 Fed balance sheet and leverage ratio debate30:00 Recessions, market resets, and social impact39:00 Cultural distribution, media fragmentation, and market narratives47:00 AI productivity, small business impact, and economic implications For more episodes from the Excess Returns network, including macro investing, asset allocation, ETFs, and AI-driven market insights, visit excessreturnspod.com

Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves beneath the surface tell a very different story. From software stocks and AI disruption to gold, silver, bonds, and the Nasdaq, they analyze how dealer hedging flows, gamma positioning, implied volatility, and options expiration cycles may be shaping market behavior more than headlines suggest. If you want to understand why markets can feel wildly volatile yet go nowhere, and how options positioning can influence short term price action, this episode provides a deep dive into the mechanics driving today’s market environment. Main Topics Covered Why the market feels like the wildest calm market of all time Massive single stock volatility versus muted index performance Software stock weakness, AI disruption, and the so called SaaS apocalypse The surge in options volume and the rise of zero DTE in major stocks How dealer hedging, delta, gamma, and volatility flows impact equities The historical tendency for markets to flip direction after options expiration Realized volatility versus intraday volatility and what is being hidden Beneath the surface rotation into value, small caps, energy, and defense Gold and silver volatility spikes and what options volume signaled at the top Rising demand for puts and what skew is telling us about downside risk Correlation spikes, VIX behavior, and the risk of a volatility expansion How positioning can create rapid market spasms in single stocks like Nvidia and Tesla Why this environment may represent a staging area for a larger move Timestamps 00:00 Violently going nowhere and hidden volatility01:01 The wildest calm market of all time04:00 Introduction to The Opex Effect and options driven flows05:29 The growth of options trading and zero DTE impact11:00 Dealer hedging, delta, and how options move stocks13:42 Why options expiration can trigger regime changes16:22 Intraday volatility versus close to close volatility20:18 Extreme rotation beneath the surface21:00 Measuring expiration size with the lobster claw rating25:00 Single stock positioning and March expiration risk27:35 Core one month correlation warning signals33:00 Rising put demand and what skew reveals36:45 Asset rotation in bonds, gold, bitcoin, and tech43:06 Correlation spikes and crash risk setup46:40 The quickening of volatility and single stock spasms

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Neil Howe, author of The Fourth Turning Is Here and co-creator of the Fourth Turning generational framework, along with Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, to discuss where we are in the current cycle and what it means for markets, inflation, AI, capital flows, and America’s long-term economic outlook. From the debasement trade and rising gold prices to global capital crowding out and the structural forces shaping productivity and growth, this conversation connects generational theory with real-world investing decisions. If you’re thinking about inflation, deficits, AI capital spending, global diversification, or how to position defensively and offensively in a shifting macro regime, this discussion provides a powerful framework for navigating what may be a historic transition period. Topics Covered The Fourth Turning framework and where we are in the current crisis cycle Why inflation is not a problem but a policy solution in major crises The collapse in US national savings and long-term deficit risks Capital flows, the debasement trade, and the future of the US dollar Gold, commodities, and real assets in a regime shift Global diversification and opportunities outside the United States AI capital spending, productivity gains, and the risk of overinvestment Crowding out effects from government deficits and AI hyper scaling Trust, geopolitics, and the long-term implications for global markets Healthcare, demographics, and structural investment themes Defensive and offensive positioning in a Fourth Turning environment Timestamps 00:00 Inflation as a solution and the generational crisis framework 04:00 Explaining the Fourth Turning and historical crisis cycles 12:55 Narratives, generational archetypes, and market behavior 22:24 Is the Fourth Turning pessimistic or optimistic 34:00 Inflation, gold, and the debasement trade 40:00 Global capital flows and the reversal of US inflows 50:00 AI capital spending and the K shaped capital markets 55:09 Crowding out, deficits, and slow growth risks 01:02:23 Defensive and offensive investment positioning 01:09:31 Final thoughts on diversification, gold, and financials

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Pete Hecht of AQR to break down portable alpha, capital efficient portfolio construction, and how investors can combine equity beta with truly diversifying sources of alpha. We cover how portable alpha works in practice, how it solves the funding problem for alternative strategies, and why implementation details like leverage, liquidity, and financing costs matter more than most investors realize. If you’re interested in diversification, long short investing, managed futures, equity market neutral strategies, or improving total returns without giving up equity exposure, this discussion provides a practical and detailed framework. Main Topics Covered What portable alpha actually is and how it differs from traditional stock bond alternative portfolios How portable alpha combines equity beta exposure with unconstrained long short alpha The funding problem with alternatives and how portable alpha solves it Turnkey implementation versus separating alpha managers and beta overlays The role of equity market neutral, managed futures, and multi strategy approaches Why private equity and private credit are poor candidates for portable alpha Long short leverage versus long only leverage and how to think about risk Target volatility, risk models, and stress testing leveraged portfolios Financing costs in futures markets and how higher interest rates affect strategies How to evaluate portable alpha using excess returns, tracking error, and tail risk Tax aware implementation and after tax returns Why mutual funds are not obsolete for active long short strategies The importance of asking whether a view is already priced into valuations Timestamps 00:00 Why you cannot eat a risk adjusted return 02:12 Defining portable alpha and the problem it solves 03:55 Portable alpha versus traditional balanced portfolios 06:54 The funding problem with diversifying alternatives 09:00 How portable alpha works in practice 13:05 What types of alpha strategies work best 16:35 Managed futures and crisis alpha 19:49 Simplicity versus complexity in implementation 21:46 Why private equity and private credit do not work in portable alpha 24:15 Understanding leverage and risk management 29:18 Target volatility and portfolio construction 34:52 Stress testing and lessons from COVID and 2022 35:01 Risks and financing costs of portable alpha 38:50 Interest rates and leveraged strategies 39:07 Identifying hidden beta and volatility laundering 46:08 Introducing AQR Fusion Funds 50:25 Evaluating performance versus the benchmark 53:17 Tax efficiency in long short mutual funds 57:29 Is your view already priced in

In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to discuss his latest research on AI adoption, ROI, and what it all means for investors. Building on his prior work on the AI CapEx boom, Kai tackles the trillion dollar question at the center of today’s market: Is AI generating real, measurable economic returns across the broader economy, or are we still in an infrastructure-driven bubble? Using a systematic analysis of earnings calls, patent data, and adoption trends, Kai lays out a framework for identifying which companies are truly benefiting from artificial intelligence and how investors can position portfolios accordingly. Find the Full Paper Here: https://etf.sparklinecapital.com/ Main topics covered: Satya Nadella’s AI bubble framework and why broad economic diffusion matters The AI adoption S-curve and where we are in the technology diffusion cycle A new AI ROI taxonomy based on earnings call analysis and quantified economic gains Real-world AI productivity, revenue, and cost-saving examples across industries Infrastructure vs early adopters vs laggards and how companies were categorized AI-driven outperformance and excess returns across different adopter groups Valuation dispersion between AI infrastructure stocks and AI early adopters The risk of overcapacity and lessons from railroads and the dot-com telecom boom Competition among large language models and the durability of AI moats S&P 500 exposure to AI infrastructure and hidden concentration risk The case for AI early adopters as a middle ground between growth and value Intangible value investing and the concept of AI yield Timestamps: 00:00:00 The trillion dollar question and what “real ROI” means 00:03:19 Nadella’s bubble framework: diffusion vs a narrow CapEx trade 00:06:08 The classic tech diffusion S-curve and where AI is on it 00:32:25 Why infrastructure is being rewarded even if the ROI story is different 00:33:04 The key chart: adoption vs valuation shows “basically no relationship” 00:38:00 Why early adopters and laggards should separate 00:38:26 The “25% ROI” example and how it could show up later in fundamentals 00:39:03 Railroads and fiber: builders go bankrupt, users capture the value 00:39:45 Telecom index fell 95% and never recovered (dot-com bust parallel) 00:40:00 The application layer captures profits; infrastructure becomes a utility 00:41:00 The punchline: transformative tech, but builders can still be bad investments 00:42:57 Overcapacity question: where are we on the line? 00:43:17 The buildout: another $5 trillion of data centers “or whatever the number is” 00:44:00 If there’s no ROI, companies cancel orders 00:45:01 Moat and LLM competition discussion begins 00:49:00 The big one: adding infrastructure names gets the S&P to 46% AI infrastructure 00:50:00 “Alternative indices” swing you to laggard risk 00:51:00 The “false choice” and the “middle ground” framing (early adopters)

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, AI, interest rates, private credit, small caps, and the risks investors may be underestimating. Nir shares his unexpected predictions for 2026, challenges the consensus on Fed rate cuts, explains why high profitability may be putting a floor under valuations, and offers a thoughtful framework for thinking about AI, concentration risk, and the future of public versus private markets. This is a deep dive into today’s most important investing debates, grounded in history and focused on what may come next. Topics Covered Nir’s unexpected predictions for 2026 and why mass adoption of autonomous vehicles may arrive faster than investors expect Why the consensus on lower interest rates in 2026 may be wrong and what the two year Treasury yield is signaling The impact of tariffs, affordability pressures, and corporate margins on inflation Why high corporate profitability may support elevated stock market valuations even if returns slow The role of earnings growth in driving S&P 500 returns and why 2015 to 2024 may not repeat Is AI more like 1995 or 1999 in the internet cycle and what that means for long term investors The convergence of big tech companies around AI and the risks of a more zero sum competitive landscape Why companies staying private longer could hurt retail investors and distort public market indices Concentration risk in the S&P 500 and what it means for long term portfolio construction Opportunities and risks in small cap stocks, including the importance of quality screens The growth of private credit markets and the hidden risks investors may not see Why Treasuries may still be the cleanest shirt in the laundry during a crisis Lessons from 20 years of running strategies and what Nir has changed his mind about Timestamps 00:00 Nir’s 2026 predictions and the rise of Waymo 05:00 Interest rates, Trump, and the outlook for Fed policy 08:40 Tariffs, inflation, and corporate margins 12:00 Valuations, profitability, and future S&P 500 returns 16:00 AI compared to the internet era and long term investing lessons 19:00 Public versus private markets and regulatory concerns 32:00 Concentration risk and the Magnificent Seven 39:00 Small caps, quality screens, and value opportunities 47:00 Private credit risks and default cycles 54:30 Nir’s investment philosophy and 20 year lessons

David Giroux, CIO of T. Rowe Price and manager of the Capital Appreciation strategy, joins Excess Returns for a wide ranging discussion on market valuation, AI investing, Mag 6 dynamics, utilities, healthcare, fixed income, and how to think independently in volatile markets. David shares his framework for exploiting structural market inefficiencies, why market drawdowns can create opportunity, how he evaluates the S&P 500 at the micro level, and what investors are getting wrong about AI, profit margins, and the current cycle. Main topics covered in this episode • Exploiting structural market inefficiencies in GARP stocks, high yield, and double B credit • Why market drawdowns often lower forward risk and increase expected returns • Strategic equity allocation during periods of fear and volatility • Rethinking S&P 500 valuation through 500 company bottom up analysis • The changing composition of the index and its impact on profit margins • Where the most overvalued and undervalued areas of the market may be today • AI investing framework including Nvidia, AMD, cloud providers, and software risk • How AI could reshape margins, labor productivity, and enterprise software • Differences between today and the dotcom bubble • Overweight positioning in utilities and healthcare and the thesis behind each • Fixed income positioning including the belly of the Treasury curve and fiscal risk • Commodities, gold, and fiscal sustainability • Lessons for portfolio managers on independent thinking and making high conviction bets Timestamps 00:00 Market drawdowns and forward returns 02:09 Exploiting structural market inefficiencies 06:28 Strategic equity allocation during selloffs 11:22 Is the market expensive and how to value the S&P 500 15:00 Profit margins and index composition 17:13 Where valuation excess exists outside the Mag 6 20:38 How to think about AI and enterprise adoption 27:18 AI disruption risk across sectors 39:20 AI versus the dotcom bubble 42:30 Apple versus Meta and capital allocation 46:53 Overweight utilities and healthcare 52:57 Fixed income opportunities and risks 57:32 Commodities, gold, and fiscal concerns 01:00:15 Lessons for new portfolio managers

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, for a wide-ranging conversation on market sentiment, asset rotation, and the growing signals of stress beneath the surface of global markets. Kevin explains why extreme bullishness can be dangerous, why gold and commodities may be flashing warning signs, and how shifts in currencies, energy, and global capital flows could reshape portfolios in the years ahead. From hedging strategies to volatility, from AI-driven concentration to international diversification, this discussion focuses on how investors can think clearly in an environment where traditional relationships are breaking down. Topics covered: Why extreme bullish sentiment can be a warning sign for markets The meaning of “buying straw hats in the winter” and how to think about hedging Market breadth, small caps, and whether rotations are healthy or late cycle Gold, silver, and what precious metals signal about financial stress Cross-asset volatility and why correlations are changing Energy markets, commodities, and the long-term impact of underinvestment Global capital flows, foreign ownership of US assets, and currency risk The US dollar, trade deficits, and implications for international investors Portfolio construction lessons from bonds, commodities, and FX How macro regime shifts can change risk management and diversification Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and market sentiment overview 03:00 Buying protection and the straw hat analogy 07:00 Sentiment indicators and market confirmation 12:00 Market rotations, small caps, and late-cycle risks 18:00 Gold, silver, and precious metals as warning signals 23:00 Bonds, currencies, and broken correlations 29:00 Energy markets and commodity underinvestment 37:00 Global capital flows and foreign ownership of US assets 44:00 The US dollar, trade deficits, and FX volatility 52:00 Macro regime shifts and portfolio construction lessons

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow, diversification, and policy risk. We cover everything from the rise of what she calls a badger market, to AI capex, market concentration, inflation risk, and why policy error, not valuation, is what historically ends bull markets. Main topics covered • Why valuation is a poor market timing tool and what actually ends bull markets • The concept of a badger market and how investors should mentally prepare for volatility • Cash flow never lies and how Victoria evaluates business quality • Diversification in 2026 and why international, commodities, and value matter more now • Risks and opportunities in the labor market, AI-driven disruption, and productivity • The K-shaped economy and what it means for consumers and corporate earnings • 60/40 portfolios, alternatives, and where commodities fit today • AI investing from infrastructure to software and cybersecurity • Yield curve dynamics, inflation risk, and portfolio positioning • Active vs passive investing in a concentrated market • How policy decisions and election dynamics influence markets Timestamps 00:00 Intro and why valuation does not kill bull markets 01:40 Investment philosophy and macro first portfolio construction 06:00 Cash flow never lies explained 07:40 Diversification beyond US large caps 10:00 Market expectations and big tech earnings risk 11:00 What is a badger market 12:40 Is the 60 40 portfolio dead 15:00 Why Victoria remains constructive on markets 18:00 Politics, sentiment, and market noise 21:00 Policy error vs valuation as the real risk 26:40 The K-shaped economy and consumer health 31:10 Hard data vs soft data disconnect 34:10 Labor market risks and data reliability 36:40 Yield curve steepening and inflation risk 41:40 Portfolio positioning in a higher inflation world 43:00 How to invest in AI beyond the Mag 7 47:20 Where we are in the AI cycle 49:30 Active management challenges and opportunities 53:00 Valuation, planning, and long-term return expectations

Follow Last Call on Spotify Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts Join Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler for the premiere episode of Last Call, a new monthly market wrap show where we go beyond the headlines to deliver actionable investment insights — and have a little fun along the way. Instead of focusing on index performance or short-term moves, we step back and connect the dots between macro instability, narrative shifts, options market signals, private credit risk, AI capital spending, and the changing nature of the Magnificent Seven. Featuring conversations with Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma, Ben Hunt from Perscient, Kai Wu from Sparkline Capital, and clips from our recent interviews with Liz Ann Sonders and Aswath Damodaran, the episode blends market structure, behavioral finance, valuation discipline, and long-term investing context to help investors understand what is really driving today’s market environment — and how to think about it going forward. Main Topics: • Why this is not a traditional market recap and how Last Call is designed to be more useful for investors • Instability versus uncertainty — and why today’s market feels different• Loss of trust in institutions, policy, and global systems and its impact on markets • What options market flows reveal about hidden market risks and sudden volatility• How private credit has reached bubble-like conditions and why narrative risk matters • The debate over retail and retirement account exposure to private credit• Why valuation discipline looks different when correlations rise across asset classes • Aswath Damodaran on trimming positions, raising cash, and the difficulty of finding uncorrelated assets • How the Magnificent Seven are changing from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses • AI capital expenditure, historical spending booms, and why infrastructure builders often underperform • Whether this AI cycle is truly different from railroads, telecom, and past technology booms Timestamps 00:00 — Intro and opening clips 01:10 — What Last Call is and why this format exists 04:30 — Instability versus uncertainty in today’s market 09:58 — Loss of trust, gold, and historical parallels 13:18 — Brent Kochuba on options flows and hidden market stress 25:17 — How options dislocations explain sudden market drops 25:40 — Ben Hunt on private credit narrative risk 28:00 — Why private credit exposure is everywhere 32:32 — Retail access versus restrictions in private credit 36:19 — What happens if the private credit bubble breaks 39:28 — Aswath Damodaran on raising cash and trimming positions 47:08 — The changing nature of the Magnificent Seven 47:42 — Kai Wu on AI capex and asset-heavy tech 50:48 — Why high capital spending often leads to underperformance 56:01 — Historical parallels from railroads to the dot-com boom

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined again by Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Advisors for a wide-ranging conversation that challenges some of the most popular narratives in markets today. From private equity and private credit risks to AI-driven capital cycles and overlooked opportunities in biotech and international equities, Dan offers a deeply research-driven perspective on where investors may be misallocating capital and where future returns could emerge. Alongside Justin and special guest co-host Kai Wu, the discussion connects valuation, incentives, and innovation in a market environment shaped by concentration, leverage, and technological change. Main topics covered • Why private equity performance continues to disappoint and where the biggest structural risks are emerging • The growing stress in private credit and what rising bankruptcies signal for lower middle-market deals • Why democratizing private equity through 401ks, interval funds, and ETFs may create more problems than solutions • How AI CapEx is changing the economics of Big Tech and why asset-light models may be getting worse, not better • The case for diversifying away from U.S. concentration toward international markets and international small value • Why bubbles are often necessary for innovation and how to think about AI through that historical lens • How investors may be underestimating valuation and growth bankruptcy risk in the Mag 7 • Why biotech is one of the hardest sectors to model and how Verdad rebuilt its framework from scratch • How intangible value, clinical trial data, specialist ownership, and peer momentum can improve biotech investing • What capital starvation, M&A dynamics, and global competition mean for biotech’s future returns Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and market narratives 02:20 Revisiting private equity risks and performance 06:58 Private credit stress and bankruptcy signals 10:58 Private equity in 401ks and interval fund risks 14:52 Private assets in ETFs and liquidity concerns 15:45 Why bubbles drive innovation and capital formation 20:13 AI CapEx, Mag 7 concentration, and valuation risk 25:24 International diversification and market leadership 29:41 Why Verdad turned to biotech research 37:13 Rebuilding biotech valuation and quality metrics 44:26 Clinical trial data and peer momentum insights 49:17 Portfolio construction and long-short biotech strategies 51:00 Capital starvation, AI, and biotech’s setup 53:58 Research culture, humility, and evolving quant models

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general semantics, mental models, and decades of investing experience, they explain why confusing maps for reality leads investors astray — and how clearer thinking can change how you see markets, risk, and long-term returns. Topics discussed include: Why paying 30x earnings can be rational when return on invested capital stays high How the word “is” smuggles hidden assumptions into investment decisions The difference between a company being a compounder and having compounded in the past Why valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon The “map vs. territory” problem in financial statements and market data Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors How language shapes narratives around value, growth, and risk AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from hype Why many binary true-or-false questions are traps for investors How long-term investors think in decades, not quarters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors. Topics covered: • Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes • Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy • The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets • Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime • Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes • Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street • Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown • Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior • The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains • Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery • AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition • Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations • Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities • How to think about risk management when macro regimes change Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions 02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear 05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess 08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures 11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness 14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown 16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility 18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization 21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership 25:00 The three mining themes driving performance 29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime 32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis 36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand 39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals 43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships 47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk 51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals 57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond. Topics covered in this episode include How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework 02:25 Translating macro views into product development 04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on 06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress 07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention 10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions 14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation 19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors 24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact 29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies 38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations 40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs 42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends 47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold 52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets 52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm 56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure 59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts 01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather joins Matt Zeigler to unpack what she calls the Great Housing Reset. Rather than a housing crash or correction, Fairweather argues the market is entering a multi year transition toward something more normal, where incomes gradually catch up to home prices and affordability improves at the margin. The conversation covers mortgage rates, supply constraints, regional housing dynamics, climate risk, policy tradeoffs, and how AI is reshaping real estate decisions for buyers, renters, and investors. Topics covered in this episode • Why the current housing market is a reset, not a crash or correction • How income growth outpacing home price growth could slowly improve affordability • Mortgage rate dynamics and why rates may stay near the low 6 percent range • The mortgage rate lock in effect and why inventory may take years to normalize • Regional housing trends including the Midwest, Northeast, Sunbelt, and tech hubs • The role of wages, rents, and affordability for Gen Z and first time homebuyers • Investor activity, rental markets, and the outlook for housing as an investment • Immigration, foreign buyers, and local market distortions • Multi generational living, ADUs, and creative housing solutions • Housing policy ideas that actually address supply constraints • Why demand side policies like 50 year mortgages miss the real problem • Climate risk, insurance costs, and total cost of home ownership • How AI and conversational search are changing the home buying process • The future of MLS consolidation and real estate market structure • Practical guidance for renters, buyers, and homeowners looking ahead to 2026 Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the Great Housing Reset 02:00 What a housing reset really means 03:30 Income growth versus home price growth 05:20 Mortgage rates and the outlook for borrowing costs 08:40 Fed policy, bond markets, and mortgage rates 10:40 Inventory shortages and the lock in effect 12:30 Regional housing market winners and losers 16:00 Affordability challenges for younger buyers 19:00 Rental markets and investor dynamics 21:20 Multi generational living and ADUs 25:00 Housing policy and supply constraints 29:30 Why 50 year mortgages do not solve affordability 33:00 Geographic housing outlook by life stage 39:30 Climate risk, insurance, and housing costs 47:00 Energy efficiency and dense housing 50:20 AI, real estate search, and market structure 54:30 What to watch in the housing market through 2026 59:30 Book discussion and where to follow Daryl Fairweather

In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle. Topics covered include: Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus run The case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative trade Latin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political bet Brazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assets Why India stands out as expensive within emerging markets China’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal support The difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equities Why Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in China How AI is being deployed differently in China versus the US The risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assets Portfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cycles How Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservation Timestamps: 00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals 01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines 04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities 07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels 10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets 14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption 18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives 20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers 26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning 29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight 32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework 36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China 41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns 44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US 46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities 51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management 58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Gary Mishuris, Managing Partner and CIO of Silver Ring Value Partners, to explore how deep fundamental analysis, behavioral insight, and disciplined process come together in real-world investing. Gary shares formative lessons from his early career at Fidelity during the post-tech bubble period, including firsthand experiences learning from legends like Peter Lynch, and connects those lessons to how he evaluates value, quality, and mispricing today. The conversation spans a detailed case study on Warner Bros. Discovery, portfolio construction under uncertainty, selective use of options, and how artificial intelligence is reshaping the research process for long-term investors. Topics covered in this episode • Lessons from Peter Lynch and Fidelity on why “just cheap” does not work • The Silver Ring origin story and how early life experiences shaped a value investing mindset • Warner Bros. Discovery as a good business plus bad business mispricing case study • How hated stocks, spin-offs, and catalysts can unlock hidden value • Conviction, position sizing, and staying rational when the market disagrees • When and why options can be used in a value investing framework • Auctions, ego, and why prices can overshoot intrinsic value • The role of mental models like reflexivity, activation energy, and lollapalooza effects • How AI fits into an investment research process without replacing judgment • What average investors should understand about incentives and simplicity Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why “just cheap” does not work 02:20 Early career at Fidelity and lessons from Peter Lynch 07:40 The Silver Ring story and learning what real value means 12:00 Warner Bros. Discovery and the good company bad company problem 18:30 Conviction, mispricing, and maintaining discipline in hated stocks 26:40 Using options selectively and managing portfolio-level risk 34:10 Auctions, ego, and when price can detach from intrinsic value 44:30 Entertainment, media disruption, and evergreen demand for content 49:50 How AI is changing equity research and idea generation 55:40 What AI can see that humans often miss 01:00:30 One lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management for a deep dive into how passive investing has reshaped market structure, altered price discovery, and created new sources of systemic risk beneath the surface of today’s equity markets. Mike explains why index funds are not as passive as most investors believe, how daily flows drive prices in increasingly inelastic markets, and why the growth of passive strategies may be pushing markets toward an unstable endpoint. The conversation also explores macro implications, AI-driven capital spending, demographic shifts, and what all of this means for investors navigating the years ahead. Topics covered How passive investing and ETF flows actively influence market prices The inelastic market hypothesis and why markets absorb flows differently than investors expect Why index funds no longer fit the classic definition of passive investing The growing share of passive ownership and what happens as it continues to rise Potential market instability and the theoretical limits of passive dominance How demographics, retirement flows, and 401k defaults affect market structure Critiques of arguments downplaying the impact of passive investing Why large-cap concentration keeps increasing despite slowing fundamentals Implications for active management, stock selection, and liquidity The role of AI, capital expenditures, and energy constraints in the macro outlook What rising electricity demand and infrastructure investment mean for the economy Housing market distortions, demographics, and long-term structural challenges Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why passive investing is not truly passive 03:00 The inelastic market hypothesis explained 06:00 Daily flows, index funds, and price impact 08:20 How much of the market is now passive 11:40 What happens if passive investing keeps growing 14:20 Retirement flows and demographic effects on markets 19:00 Responding to critiques of passive market impact 23:00 Liquidity, concentration, and large-cap dominance 27:00 Why market cap does not equal liquidity 33:00 Active management under pressure 38:00 Current market conditions and early-year rotations 41:50 Economic growth, GDP, and underlying volatility 43:30 AI capex, overinvestment, and market incentives 47:00 Energy, electricity demand, and long-term constraints 52:40 Housing, demographics, and policy challenges

This episode of Excess Returns features Gene Munster and Doug Clinton breaking down their 2026 technology and market predictions, with a deep focus on artificial intelligence, big tech, and where investors may be misreading the current cycle. The conversation explores how far along the AI bull market really is, what fundamentals still support it, and where the biggest opportunities and risks may emerge over the next several years. Munster and Clinton discuss market structure, capital spending, valuation, and technological inflection points across AI, software, hardware, and autonomous driving, offering a grounded but forward-looking framework for long-term investors. Main topics covered Why the AI bull market may still have multiple years left and how fundamentals support current valuations Nasdaq return expectations through 2026 and what earnings and multiples imply for investors The case for small-cap and non–Mag Seven tech outperforming as the AI cycle matures Hyperscaler AI capital spending and why CapEx growth could exceed current expectations Whether AI pricing pressure leads to commoditization or expanding long-term value creation How AI is changing the economics of infrastructure, platforms, and asset-heavy tech businesses Apple’s AI strategy, the future of Siri, and why expectations matter for valuation Alphabet, Amazon, and the evolving AI competition among the largest technology companies Energy constraints, data centers, nuclear power, and the infrastructure needed to support AI growth Tesla, Waymo, and the realistic timeline for autonomous driving and robotaxi adoption How physical AI, autonomy, and robotics could reshape transportation and consumer behavior Timestamps 00:00 AI cycle outlook and why the bull market may still be early 05:00 Nasdaq return expectations and earnings fundamentals 10:30 Small-cap tech versus Mag Seven performance 17:15 Hyperscaler AI CapEx and Nvidia’s signals 24:00 Infrastructure, pricing power, and AI commoditization debates 32:30 Apple, Siri, and consumer AI assistants 38:50 Alphabet, Amazon, and AI competition among mega-cap tech 45:00 Energy, data centers, and nuclear power considerations 48:10 Tesla, autonomy, and robotaxi timelines 54:15 Waymo, market share, and the future of transportation

In this episode of Excess Returns, Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation on valuation, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about risk, discipline, and opportunity in a market shaped by AI, market concentration, and rising uncertainty. Damodaran walks through how he builds and manages his own portfolio, why price matters more than story or quality, and how AI-driven capital spending could reshape margins and returns across the economy. The discussion blends practical investing frameworks with big-picture market insights, offering a clear look at how a valuation-driven investor navigates today’s environment. Main topics covered • How Aswath Damodaran builds a stock portfolio, including diversification, position sizing, and turnover • Why investing is about buying at the right price, not buying great companies • Using valuation frameworks to invest in young, unprofitable, and fast-growing companies • How stories and narratives fit into valuation without replacing financial discipline • Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price rather than chasing popular stocks • Sell discipline, overvaluation triggers, and avoiding emotional attachment to winners • Using probability distributions and simulations instead of single-point estimates • How company lifecycles affect growth, margins, and capital allocation decisions • Why many companies struggle as they age and how management quality shows up late in the lifecycle • AI as a capital cycle and why massive AI investment may lower margins overall • Why AI is likely to create a bubble, even if it delivers long-term economic value • Winners and losers in the AI value chain, from infrastructure to applications • Risks from AI infrastructure spending, debt, and cross-ownership structures • Why private markets may not deliver better outcomes for individual investors • How Damodaran thinks about cash, diversification, and assets uncorrelated with equities • Reentering markets after selling and avoiding the trap of staying in cash too long • Time horizon, legacy investing, and managing wealth across generations Timestamps 00:00 Investing is about price, valuation, and early thoughts on AI and market risk 01:54 Personal investing philosophy and why portfolios must be investor-specific 03:00 Diversification, number of holdings, and managing downside risk 05:00 Valuation frameworks and buying companies at the right price 06:00 Stories versus numbers and avoiding the circle of competence trap 08:20 Political risk and why some sectors are hard to value 08:47 Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price to meet value 11:43 When and why to sell stocks as a value investor 12:00 Using probability distributions and simulations in valuation 15:48 Sell discipline, fund flows, and separating skill from luck 18:00 Company lifecycles, aging businesses, and management discipline 23:18 Apple, Meta, and contrasting approaches to AI investment 24:08 AI bubbles, winner-take-all dynamics, and capital cycles 27:48 Infrastructure investing, debt risk, and societal spillovers 32:20 Cross-ownership risks and AI ecosystem fragility 35:00 AI’s impact on profit margins and competition 39:41 Where AI value may accrue over time 44:38 AI tools, valuation bots, and the rise of investment scams 49:17 Private markets, alternatives, and cost structures 53:05 Cash, collectibles, and diversification beyond equities 56:33 Reentering markets after selling and avoiding market timing traps 58:35 Time horizon, legacy investing, and generational wealth

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders to discuss the evolving market and economic landscape heading into 2026. The conversation focuses on why this cycle feels fundamentally different, how instability rather than uncertainty is shaping investor behavior, and what that means for inflation, the labor market, Federal Reserve policy, and equity markets. Liz Ann breaks down the growing bifurcation across the economy and markets, the shift away from the Great Moderation era, and how investors should think about diversification, earnings, valuations, and AI-driven capital spending in a more volatile and fragmented environment. Main topics covered • Why today’s environment is better described as unstable rather than uncertain • The K-shaped economy and growing bifurcation across consumers, sectors, and markets • Inflation dynamics and why 2 percent may now be a floor rather than a ceiling • How deglobalization, supply chains, and tariffs are changing the inflation regime • The shifting relationship between stocks and bonds • Hard data versus soft data and what sentiment is really telling us • The labor market’s headwinds and tailwinds, including immigration and hiring trends • AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and capital spending • The AI capex boom and how it differs from the late 1990s tech cycle • Earnings growth, valuation compression, and market broadening • Rolling recessions versus traditional economic downturns • Federal Reserve challenges under a conflicted dual mandate • Why factor-based investing matters more than sector or style calls Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why this cycle feels different 02:00 Uncertainty versus instability in markets 03:30 The K-shaped economy and market bifurcation 07:00 Market broadening, small caps, and diversification 09:00 Inflation measurement challenges and data reliability 12:00 Why inflation may stay above 2 percent 15:00 Stock and bond correlations across cycles 17:30 Labor market crosscurrents and immigration effects 20:45 AI, productivity, and entry-level job pressures 24:30 Sentiment versus fundamentals in markets 27:30 Retail trading, behavior, and market psychology 31:00 Rolling recessions and post-pandemic distortions 38:00 Technology, cyclicality, and sector rotation 40:30 The Fed’s policy dilemma and internal disagreements 45:00 AI capital spending and comparisons to the dot-com era 51:00 Earnings growth versus valuation expansion 55:00 Factors, GARP, and portfolio positioning for 2026

This episode of Excess Returns features a wide ranging conversation with Grant Williams on what he calls the hundred year pivot. Grant explains why today’s environment feels fundamentally different from the last several decades, why long held investing assumptions may no longer apply, and how declining trust in institutions, money, and markets is reshaping the global financial system. Drawing on history, macroeconomics, and decades of market experience, the discussion explores what this transition means for investors trying to navigate a world defined by uncertainty, volatility, and structural change. Main topics covered • What the hundred year pivot means and why it represents a once in a generation shift • The Fourth Turning framework and how it connects financial crises, politics, and social change • Why buy the dip worked for decades and why it may fail in the years ahead • The erosion of trust in institutions and its impact on markets and money • The financial crisis, sanctions, and the freezing of sovereign assets as turning points • The role of the dollar, gold, and central banks in a changing monetary system • Lessons from history including Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis • Why commodities and real assets matter in a world of deglobalization and reshoring • How artificial intelligence fits into the current investment cycle and capital allocation boom • Portfolio construction and behavioral challenges in a higher volatility environment Timestamps 00:00 The hundred year pivot and why this cycle is different 01:30 Defining the Fourth Turning and historical cycles 07:40 The financial crisis as the start of institutional breakdown 11:00 Sanctions, sovereign assets, and the end of unquestioned trust in the dollar 18:20 Historical parallels from Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis 24:50 What could trigger a broader monetary reset 28:50 Energy, geopolitics, and shifting global alliances 35:00 Commodities, real assets, and rebuilding supply chains 42:40 Artificial intelligence, capital cycles, and uncertainty 52:30 Portfolio construction, behavior, and risk tolerance 59:50 Where to follow Grant Williams and his work

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most pressing investing debates today: how to think about valuations, profit margins, and artificial intelligence in a market that feels both expensive and transformative. Sam Ro joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation that explores whether traditional valuation tools still matter, how AI is reshaping corporate economics, and why history suggests investors should be cautious about bubble narratives even when enthusiasm runs high. From profit margins and capital intensity to the future of the Magnificent Seven, this episode focuses on how long-term investors can frame uncertainty without relying on false precision or short-term market calls. Timestamps 00:00 Valuations, bubbles, and why timing markets is so hard 01:41 Do valuations still matter for investors 05:58 S&P 500 valuation levels versus history 09:30 Profit margins and why mean reversion has not shown up yet 14:39 Household finances, pricing power, and consumer resilience 15:47 AI, productivity, and the limits of forecasting economic impact 19:15 Valuations adjusted for structurally higher profit margins 21:15 Tech multiples, growth expectations, and PEG ratios 24:07 Are we in an AI bubble and why that question may not help 29:14 Lessons from past bubbles and irrational exuberance 30:14 How transformative AI could be compared to past innovations 35:20 Massive AI capital spending and the risk of overbuild 39:42 Who captures value in AI: builders versus users 46:39 Revenue per worker and productivity trends 48:00 Dispersion inside the Magnificent Seven 51:34 Big tech shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy models 59:53 Turnover among top companies over time 01:01:10 Why Wall Street price targets miss the point 01:04:30 Presidential cycles and market returns 01:06:28 Fund manager surveys and why popular risks are often lagging indicators Topics covered How investors should think about valuations over long time horizons Why elevated profit margins may be more structural than cyclical The role of AI in productivity, earnings, and competitive dynamics Bubble psychology and lessons from the dot-com era Capital intensity, overinvestment, and the risk of write-downs Why AI infrastructure builders may not capture most of the value What dispersion within the Magnificent Seven signals for markets Why broad diversification still matters in a rapidly changing market

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to walk through her technical outlook for markets as we head into 2026. The conversation focuses on trend analysis, momentum, volatility, and risk management across U.S. equities, sectors, international markets, and alternative assets. Rather than making predictions, Katie explains how she reacts to price, confirms signals, and uses a disciplined technical process to identify opportunities and manage downside risk in changing market environments. Main topics covered Market trend outlook for U.S. equities heading into 2026 Why long-term trends remain constructive despite rising short-term risks How to think about volatility, consolidation, and corrective phases What loss of momentum in late 2025 signals for near-term positioning How to use triangle formations, support, and resistance levels Understanding DeMark indicators, MACD, and stochastic signals Leadership shifts within large-cap technology and the Mag 7 Growth versus value dynamics across market caps Small caps, market breadth, and participation signals Sector rotation insights including technology, healthcare, financials, energy, utilities, and real estate How sentiment indicators like fear and greed fit into a broader process Gold, silver, and precious metals trends and volatility Bitcoin and crypto from a technical perspective The U.S. dollar, yields, and global market implications International and emerging market opportunities How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF is constructed and used in portfolios Where a tactical, risk-managed strategy can fit within asset allocation Timestamps 00:00 Market setup and trend perspective for 2026 01:25 Long-term uptrend versus short-term risk 04:16 Momentum loss and near-term caution 06:00 Nasdaq 100 triangle and volatility setup 07:45 Ichimoku clouds and trend confirmation 11:01 Using consolidation and support levels 13:05 Tech leadership and relative strength shifts 18:30 Small caps, breadth, and market participation 21:01 Growth versus value across market caps 23:00 Market breadth and advance-decline signals 24:13 Sentiment, fear and greed, and retests 30:00 Breakouts, catalysts, and confirmation 32:00 Sector rotation overview 35:00 Energy, real estate, and rate-sensitive sectors 39:10 Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF strategy 45:00 International and emerging markets 47:36 Gold, silver, and precious metals 51:04 U.S. dollar and currency trends 54:00 Bitcoin and crypto technical outlook 57:12 Key indicators to watch going forward 59:07 Long-term takeaways for investors

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts ⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠⁠ Subscribe on Spotify ⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠⁠ In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down what the economy and markets may really be signaling beneath the headline numbers. Drawing from his recent outlook and long history studying market cycles, Jim explains why growth may be weaker than it appears, how policy lags are shaping the outlook, and why today’s market looks very different from past late-cycle environments. The conversation explores the divide between the “new era” economy and the rest of the market, what that means for investors in 2026, and where opportunities may be emerging as monetary and fiscal policy begin to shift. Topics covered in this episode• Why headline GDP growth may be overstating the true strength of the economy• How trade distortions are affecting recent GDP data• The concept of a “no-shaped economy” and the divide between new era and old era businesses• Labor market signals that suggest economic sluggishness beneath the surface• Why this may be one of the most disliked bull markets in history• The role of policy lags and why easing could matter more than investors expect• How market concentration has shaped returns over the last several years• Warning signs emerging within the technology sector• The relationship between corporate cash levels, R&D spending, and tech leadership• Why market breadth and old era sectors may become more important going forward• Thoughts on bonds, stocks, commodities, gold, and portfolio positioning• Why international and emerging markets could benefit from a weaker dollar• How investors might think about diversification in an unusual market cycle Timestamps00:00 Introduction and key themes from Jim’s outlook03:00 Why the economy may be weaker than GDP headlines suggest06:00 Labor market signals and recession-like dynamics12:00 Policy lags, the Fed, and why growth could soften further15:00 Market performance after multiple strong years18:00 The no-shaped economy and the split between new era and old era24:00 Strange market signals at all-time highs27:00 Valuations, sentiment, and why pessimism matters29:00 Fed easing expectations and consensus forecasts35:00 Warning signs for technology stocks42:00 Corporate cash, R&D spending, and tech leadership risks47:00 Portfolio construction and asset allocation thinking55:00 Final thoughts on opportunities and risks ahead

In this wide-ranging conversation, Gautam Baid joins Excess Returns to discuss the principles that shaped his investing philosophy, the lessons learned through bear markets, and why compounding, patience, and quality matter far more than forecasts or short-term performance. Drawing from his books The Joys of Compounding and The Making of a Value Investor, Baid shares a deeply reflective framework for long-term investing, portfolio construction, behavioral discipline, and global diversification, with insights spanning Indian and US markets, liquidity cycles, AI, and investor psychology. Main topics covered • The asymmetric power of compounding and why being wrong half the time can still lead to exceptional long-term returns • Why patience, temperament, and behavior matter more than analytical precision in investing • The role of journaling in improving decision-making and avoiding repeated behavioral mistakes • How investor sentiment reveals itself through IPO markets and portfolio quality late in bull cycles • Why long-term investing requires continuous monitoring rather than buy-and-forget complacency • Letting winners run, cutting losers, and understanding power-law outcomes in stock markets • Liquidity cycles and how they drive market returns in both India and the United States • How bear markets reshape investing philosophy toward resilience, quality, and diversification • When averaging down makes sense and when it is dangerous • The differences between Indian and US equity markets, valuations, and governance • Why home country bias can be a major risk for US-based investors • AI, productivity, profitability, and where future market winners may emerge beyond mega-cap tech • Why passion for investing matters more than money in sustaining long-term success Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the asymmetric nature of compounding 01:00 Gautam Baid’s investing background and books 03:00 The importance of journaling and learning through bear markets 06:00 Investor sentiment, IPOs, and late-cycle market behavior 10:20 Long-term investing versus complacency and monitoring risk 14:15 Convex upside, concave downside, and letting winners run 18:30 Liquidity cycles and lessons from Stan Druckenmiller 22:45 Identifying market bottoms and the anatomy of bull and bear markets 28:00 Averaging down, quality, and risk management 30:30 How bear markets change investor psychology and strategy 33:00 Patience, management quality, and long-term optionality 36:15 Mr. Market, price signals, and market intelligence 39:00 The Federal Reserve, inflation, and asset price dynamics 44:00 Understanding the Indian equity market and valuation structure 46:45 Why global diversification matters for US investors 50:30 AI, margins, and the future of value investing 53:00 Passion, purpose, and the psychology of long-term investing 54:30 The single most note investors should learn

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dig into forecast season by reviewing and synthesizing insights from 22 major Wall Street and institutional market outlooks. Rather than treating year-end forecasts as precise predictions, the conversation uses them as a framework for understanding consensus views, hidden assumptions, and where the real risks and surprises for 2026 may lie. The discussion spans macroeconomic conditions, AI-driven growth, earnings expectations, valuation risks, and the growing divergence beneath headline market performance, helping investors think more clearly about the range of outcomes ahead. Main topics covered • Why year-end market forecasts are still useful despite being consistently wrong on exact targets • What consensus forecasts reveal about expectations for economic growth in 2026 • The role of artificial intelligence in driving earnings, productivity, and capital spending • Reacceleration versus late-cycle slowdown and how forecasters are split on the outlook • Inflation expectations, interest rates, and the likelihood of fewer Fed cuts than expected • Fiscal policy, deficits, and the growing role of government stimulus • Energy constraints, data centers, and the physical limits of the AI buildout • Profit margin expansion versus revenue growth and why this matters for valuations • S&P 500 price targets, earnings assumptions, and where optimism and caution diverge • The dominance of the Magnificent Seven and the debate over market and earnings broadening • Risks beneath the surface, including margin compression, valuation resets, and sector rotation • What investors can learn by comparing the most bullish and most bearish forecasts Timestamps 00:00 Forecast season and why reading outlooks still matters 03:00 Why precise market targets are misleading but informative 05:30 Using consensus forecasts to identify risks and surprises 08:30 AI, economic reacceleration, and productivity expectations 13:00 Recession risks, stagflation fears, and late-cycle dynamics 17:00 Inflation outlook and why it may reemerge later in the year 22:00 Fed policy, rate cuts, and rising internal dissent 26:00 Fiscal stimulus, deficits, and long-term consequences 28:00 AI infrastructure, energy constraints, and data centers 35:00 AI diffusion and real-world productivity gains 39:00 S&P 500 targets, earnings growth, and valuation assumptions 43:00 Profit margins, mean reversion, and long-term risks 47:00 Magnificent Seven earnings versus the rest of the market 52:00 Market broadening, international stocks, and diversification 56:00 Key takeaways for investors heading into 2026

In this special compilation episode of Excess Returns, we ask one revealing question to some of the most respected investors, strategists, and market thinkers in the industry: What is one belief you hold about investing that most of your peers would disagree with? The answers challenge conventional wisdom across macro, valuation, diversification, options, forecasting, AI, and investor behavior. Rather than consensus, this episode highlights how great investors think differently about risk, uncertainty, and long-term outcomes. 00:06 Jim Grant – Why gold has been, is, and will remain money 02:14 Andy Constan – Why quantitative easing is always pro-growth and inflationary 03:36 Liz Ann Sonders – Why year-end market price targets are a useless exercise 04:56 Richard Bernstein – Why the stock market is ownership, not a horse race 06:33 David Giroux – Why macro investing does not create long-term alpha 08:00 Meb Faber – Why dividend investing narratives are often misunderstood 11:44 Sam Ro – When valuations actually matter and when they don’t 13:27 Jason Buck – Why belief systems in investing are often built on insecurity 15:16 Mike Green – Why markets change when metrics become targets 17:16 Jerry Parker – Why the Sharpe ratio fails for asymmetric return strategies 19:15 Chris Mayer – Why trimming great businesses often hurts long-term returns 21:14 Joseph Shaposhnik – Why a stock that has doubled may still be early 24:27 Warren Pies – Why price and technicals are essential for managing risk 25:33 Katie Stockton – Why technical analysis can stand on its own 27:17 Jim Paulsen – Why policy makers matter less than cultural and economic forces 28:41 Adam Parker – Why differentiated thinking is the only real edge versus the index 30:29 Rupert Mitchell – Why copying great investors is a mistake 31:18 Victor Haghani – Why asset allocation should be dynamic, not static 33:09 Dan Rasmussen – Why historical growth tells you almost nothing about future growth 33:45 Graeme Forster – Why you don't just need to be right 60% of the time 35:40 Shannon Saccocia – Why investors should think more like futurists than historians 36:21 Cem Karsan – Why options are not derivatives, but the true underlying 40:31 Aahan Menon – Why tariffs and macro news matter less than investors think 41:49 Andrew Beer – Why simple bets often outperform complex strategies 44:09 Bogumil Baranowski – Why successful investing requires far less work than people believe 45:55 Rick Ferri – Why advice fees and asset management fees should be separated 46:57 Cameron Dawson – Why multidisciplinary thinking is essential for investors 48:24 Mary Ann Bartels – Why blue chip dividend investing still has a place 49:40 Travis Prentice – Why turnover depends entirely on the strategy 50:24 Scott McBride – Why catalysts are overrated in value investing 50:58 Jared Dillian – Why tariffs and protectionism make economies poorer 53:35 Peter Atwater – Why shareholders are no longer the top corporate priority 54:34 Ian Cassel – Why turnover myths persist in microcap investing 55:31 Kris Sidial – Why trading psychology matters more than models 56:17 Noel Smith – Why top hedge fund returns are not the upper limit 57:09 Kai Wu – How AI will reshape investing jobs without replacing humans 01:00:49 Tim Hayes – Why markets cannot be forecast reliably 01:02:12 Doug Clinton – Why AI-powered asset management could be a multi-trillion-dollar industry

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Paul Eitelman, Global Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, to unpack their 2026 outlook and the idea of a “Great Inflection Point” for markets and the economy. Paul explains why the U.S. economy may be shifting from resilience to reacceleration, how artificial intelligence is moving from hype to measurable returns, and why market leadership could finally broaden beyond the Magnificent Seven. The conversation blends macroeconomic analysis, behavioral finance, and real-world portfolio implications, offering investors a framework for thinking about growth, risk, and diversification as we head into 2026. Main topics covered • The cycle, valuation, and sentiment framework and how it shapes investment decisions • Why economic growth may reaccelerate in 2026 after navigating policy headwinds • Accelerating AI adoption and what early signs of ROI mean for productivity and profits • The J-curve of new technologies and where AI may sit today • Capital spending, leverage, and profitability risks among hyperscalers and large tech firms • Energy demand, labor market impacts, and other societal risks tied to AI • Tariffs, immigration, and uncertainty as fading or manageable economic headwinds • Financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation as emerging tailwinds • The gap between hard economic data and weak consumer sentiment • Why recession forecasts have been wrong and how to think about recession risk going forward • Inflation dynamics, the Federal Reserve’s priorities, and the outlook for rates • The case for market broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven • Global diversification, small caps, international equities, and emerging markets • Behavioral finance, investor sentiment, and staying invested through volatility • Portfolio construction implications, including real assets and alternatives Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the Great Inflection Point outlook 03:00 Cycle, valuation, and sentiment investing framework 05:50 From economic resilience to potential reacceleration 07:00 AI as a transformational technology and historical parallels 09:20 Measuring returns on AI investment and productivity gains 11:00 The AI J-curve and timing of benefits 13:00 Capital intensity, leverage, and risks for big tech 15:00 Energy demand, labor markets, and AI risks 19:00 How Paul uses AI in his own research workflow 20:30 The case for economic reacceleration into 2026 21:40 Tariffs and their real economic impact 23:20 Immigration and labor supply effects 24:10 Uncertainty, confidence, and business decision-making 26:10 Financial conditions and household wealth 28:00 Fiscal stimulus and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act 29:20 Deregulation as a potential growth tailwind 30:40 Hard data versus soft data in the economy 34:10 Why recession forecasts failed 37:10 Recession risk outlook for 2026 40:30 Inflation dynamics and the Fed’s focus 43:50 Broadening market leadership beyond the Magnificent Seven 46:10 Investor sentiment, panic, and opportunity 49:00 Translating macro views into portfolio strategy 51:30 Real assets, alternatives, and diversification 54:30 Investing lessons, compounding, and staying invested

In the latest episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson take a look back at 2025 and a look forward to 2026. Subscribe to Click Beta via the links below. Follow Click Beta: Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUs⁠ Apple Podcasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457⁠ YouTube: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Adrian Helfert of Westwood to discuss how investors should be thinking about portfolio construction in a market shaped by artificial intelligence, high levels of concentration, shifting interest rate dynamics, and evolving economic signals. The conversation covers how AI-driven capital spending is changing return profiles across markets, why traditional investing rules are breaking down, and how investors can balance growth, income, and risk in an uncertain environment. Adrian shares his framework for understanding return drivers, his views on market concentration and valuation, and how to think about diversification, macro risk, and income generation going forward. Main topics covered • How Westwood frames portfolio construction around capital appreciation, income, and event-driven returns • Why AI spending is both a major opportunity and a growing existential risk for large companies • The sustainability of market concentration and what it means for future returns • Whether higher interest rates really hurt growth stocks the way investors expect • How massive data center and AI capital expenditures could translate into productivity gains • The case for market broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven • Why traditional recession indicators have failed in recent cycles • How inflation, labor markets, and Federal Reserve policy interact today • Rethinking the classic 60/40 portfolio and the role of private markets • Using covered calls and active income strategies to manage risk and generate yield Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and near-term opportunities versus long-term risk 02:40 Capital appreciation, income, and event-driven investing framework 06:30 Have markets structurally changed to support higher returns 09:30 Intangible assets, AI, and margin expansion 10:20 The scale of AI and data center capital spending 13:00 Productivity gains and return on investment from AI 16:00 AI as both opportunity and risk for companies 19:30 Market concentration and diversification concerns 23:30 Will market leadership eventually broaden 25:30 Growth stocks, duration, and interest rates 29:30 International diversification and global investing 33:30 Why recession indicators have failed 39:00 Inflation outlook and Federal Reserve policy 46:00 Rethinking the 60/40 portfolio 53:00 Enhanced income strategies and covered calls 59:00 One investing belief most peers disagree with

In this special episode, Adam Butler and Ben Hunt join Matt Zeigler to unpack one of the most charged debates in markets and economics today: whether our official statistics still reflect lived reality. Building on Mike Green’s work and Adam Butler’s essay The Bureau of Missing Children, the conversation moves beyond the technical definition of poverty to a deeper idea of economic precarity, the growing gap between what we measure and what people actually experience. Together, they explore debt, housing, childcare, labor mobility, AI, and the erosion of meaning in economic language, while wrestling with what policy, community, and human-centered solutions might look like in a world that increasingly feels unstable. Main topics covered Why the debate should focus on precarity rather than poverty The disconnect between inflation statistics and lived experience How debt, housing, childcare, and education drive economic insecurity The idea of a participation budget for modern family formation Why labor mobility has broken down since the financial crisis How asset prices and credit intensify risk for households The role of grandparents and off-balance-sheet support in the economy Darwin’s wedge, positional goods, and rising costs of everyday life The impact of AI, technocracy, and anti-human incentives Centralized versus decentralized solutions to today’s economic challenges What it means to carry the fire and preserve human-centered values Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the emotional roots of the precarity debate 02:00 Poverty versus precarity and what we are really measuring 06:30 Technocrats, narratives, and the limits of economic statistics 09:00 Personal experiences with precarity and debt 15:00 The Bureau of Missing Children and family formation economics 21:00 Modeling household income and participation budgets 25:50 Rising costs of childcare, housing, and everyday life 33:00 Darwin’s wedge and positional competition 36:45 Debt, housing, and labor immobility 40:00 Grandparents, unpaid care, and off-balance-sheet subsidies 46:30 How today differs from 40 or 50 years ago 49:40 Labor mobility as a lost engine of opportunity 55:00 Policy paths, mission-driven economics, and decentralization 01:11:00 Visionary leadership versus bottom-up solutions 01:15:50 Carrying the fire and preserving meaning 01:17:30 Where to follow Adam Butler and Ben Hunt

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with David Wright, Head of Quantitative Investing at Pictet Asset Management, for a deep and practical conversation about how artificial intelligence and machine learning are actually being used in real-world investment strategies. Rather than focusing on hype or black-box promises, David walks through how systematic investors combine human judgment, economic intuition, and machine learning models to forecast stock returns, construct portfolios, and manage risk. The discussion covers what AI can and cannot do in investing today, how machine learning differs from traditional factor models and large language models like ChatGPT, and why interpretability and robustness still matter. This episode is a must-watch for investors interested in quantitative investing, AI-driven ETFs, and the future of systematic portfolio construction. Main topics covered: What artificial intelligence and machine learning really mean in an investing context How machine learning models are trained to forecast relative stock returns The role of features, signals, and decision trees in quantitative investing Key differences between machine learning models and large language models like ChatGPT Why interpretability and stability matter more than hype in AI investing How human judgment and machine learning complement each other in portfolio management Data selection, feature engineering, and the trade-offs between traditional and alternative data Overfitting, data mining concerns, and how professional investors build guardrails Time horizons, rebalancing frequency, and transaction cost considerations How AI-driven strategies are implemented in diversified portfolios and ETFs The future of AI in investing and what it means for investors Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and overview of AI and machine learning in investing 03:00 Defining artificial intelligence vs machine learning in finance 05:00 How machine learning models are trained using financial data 07:00 Machine learning vs ChatGPT and large language models for stock selection 09:45 Decision trees and how machine learning makes forecasts 12:00 Choosing data inputs: traditional data vs alternative data 14:40 The role of economic intuition and explainability in quant models 18:00 Time horizons and why machine learning works better at shorter horizons 22:00 Can machine learning improve traditional factor investing 24:00 Data mining, overfitting, and model robustness 26:00 What humans do better than AI and where machines excel 30:00 Feature importance, conditioning effects, and model structure 32:00 Model retraining, stability, and long-term persistence 36:00 The future of automation and human oversight in investing 40:00 Why ChatGPT-style models struggle with portfolio construction 45:00 Portfolio construction, diversification, and ETF implementation 51:00 Rebalancing, transaction costs, and practical execution 56:00 Surprising insights from machine learning models 59:00 Closing lessons on investing and avoiding overtrading

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, Bogumil Baranowki and Matt Zeigler explain how investors get trapped by labels, abstractions, and simplistic models, and why breaking free with better mental models, language, and long-term thinking is a real edge in markets. Subscribe on Spotify ⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠⁠ Subscribe on Apple Podcasts ⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003⁠⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠⁠https://youtube.com/@excessreturns⁠

Brent Kochuba takes a look behind the scenes at the options flows driving the market heading into the December options expiration and the end of 2025. Subscribe on Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJf⁠ Subscribe on Apple Podcasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0ALw

Ed Yardeni returns to Excess Returns to break down the evolving market landscape, why he moved the Magnificent 7 to underweight, and how AI, productivity, interest rates, global markets, and sector leadership will shape the next stage of the Roaring 2020s. Ed explains why the economy has remained so resilient, what could finally trigger a true market broadening, and how investors should think about everything from tech competition to inflation, private credit risks, and Fed policy heading into 2026. Main topics covered • Why Ed reduced the Magnificent 7 and tech from overweight to market weight • How extreme sector concentration affects portfolio construction • The escalating competition inside AI and large-cap tech • The AI CapEx boom and how it changes earnings, margins, and valuation • Valuation considerations for tech leaders at this stage of the cycle • Whether the Mag 7 should be compared to past tech bubbles • How AI adoption may spread to the broader economy and boost productivity • Economic impact of AI on jobs, wages, and long-term inflation • Why the US economy avoided recession despite persistent warnings • Rolling recessions vs traditional recessions and how they shape markets • Private credit risks and whether they pose a systemic threat • Prospects for small caps, mid caps, financials, industrials, and healthcare • Why 2026 may finally bring true market broadening • The outlook for international investing and emerging markets • Ed’s S&P 500 roadmap to 7,700 next year and 10,000 by 2029 • Fed policy, rate cuts, inflation, bond vigilantes, and political pressure • Key risks investors should monitor heading into 2026 Timestamps 00:00 Mag 7 concentration and the case for rebalancing 03:00 How Ed builds probability-based market scenarios 04:30 Why the Roaring 2020s thesis still holds 06:00 The no-show recession and economic resilience 07:00 Why he moved the Mag 7 and tech to market weight 09:30 How every company is becoming a technology company 12:20 Knowing when a successful thesis has run its course 13:30 The dominance of the US market and global diversification 15:00 Why market weight, not overweight, for tech and the Mag 7 16:00 Tech competition, AI leapfrogging, and margin pressure 18:30 The CapEx boom and valuation questions 21:00 Comparing today’s tech leaders to the 2000 era 23:00 How AI could lift productivity across the entire economy 25:00 Putting AI in historical context 27:00 How new technologies solve constraints like energy and compute 29:00 AI’s long-term impact on productivity and growth 30:00 Labor market disruption and job transition dynamics 31:20 Will AI be deflationary over time? 32:30 Technology, China, automation, and global deflation forces 33:00 Ed’s forecast for the S&P 500 through 2029 35:00 Why recession indicators failed this cycle 37:00 How liquidity facilities prevent credit crunches 39:00 Private credit risks and transparency challenges 40:45 The potential for market broadening in 2026 42:20 Takeaways from the latest Fed meeting 44:00 Should the Fed be cutting rates? 45:00 Fed independence under political pressure 47:00 Why bond vigilantes may return in 2026 48:00 International investing opportunities and ETFs 49:30 Closing thoughts and key risks ahead

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Andrew Beer to break down managed futures, hedge fund replication, diversification, and what investors can realistically expect from these alternative strategies. Andrew explains why managed futures can act like a “cloudy crystal ball,” how trend strategies capture major macro shifts, why complexity isn’t always your friend, and how advisors can communicate these concepts to clients. We also explore fees, model portfolios, allocation decisions, global macro themes, and what smart-money positioning looks like heading into 2025. Topics Covered What managed futures actually are and how they work How trend strategies capture big macro shifts Why diversification is most valuable during market stress Why investors struggle with complexity and line-item risk The statistical case for adding managed futures to a 60/40 portfolio Barriers to adoption and how advisors should explain the strategy The role of model portfolios and why slow rebalancing can hurt in regime shifts Why Andrew prefers simplicity over complexity in managed futures Fee sensitivity, ETFs, and how this strategy goes mainstream Indexing, replication, and building more efficient alternatives Why manager selection is hard in this space The “rush to complexity” and why it often hurts returns How hedge fund replication works and what it captures What smart money is positioned for today across equities, rates, currencies, and commodities Macro themes: inflation, rate cycles, the dollar, yen, and global equity opportunities Why international equities may finally be turning How managed futures complement – not replace – stocks and bonds What mainstream adoption might look like over the next decade Timestamps 00:00 Intro and why managed futures matter 02:00 Explaining managed futures in simple terms 06:18 The four major asset classes trend funds trade 10:00 Why trends form and how information reveals itself in prices 11:55 Diversification and how managed futures improve portfolios 14:00 Why investors haven’t widely adopted the strategy 17:01 Communicating the “what,” not the “how,” with clients 18:55 How model portfolios behave in regime change 21:55 How managed futures can move faster than traditional allocations 24:00 Why a simple portfolio of major markets works 26:00 Making alternatives feel less risky 28:00 Performance dispersion across managed futures ETFs 30:00 Why complexity doesn’t equal value 35:20 Fees, ETFs, and what mainstream adoption requires 38:00 The real reason for the industry’s “rush to complexity” 40:35 Should managed futures exclude equities and bonds? 43:00 Why it’s so hard to handicap what will work in advance 46:00 The human side of alternatives and advisor communication 47:00 Hedge fund replication explained 50:00 How replication identifies major themes 52:00 Why replication works only in certain strategies 53:10 What smart money positioning looks like today 55:45 Inflation, rates, the dollar, and global opportunities 58:00 The path to managed futures becoming a standard allocation 59:22 Where to find Andrew Beer online

We are including this episode from our separate show Teach Me Like I'm Five in the Excess Returns feed. If you would like to continue receiving new episodes, subscribe using the links below. In the episode, we sit down with Business Breakdowns host Matt Reustle to discuss how he breaks down businesses and the common characteristics that the best businesses he has looked at share. Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/7zu6lFpPohoPKhcu0Er9kB Subscribe on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/hr/podcast/teach-me-like-im-five-investing-concepts-made-simple/id1815975642

In this episode of Excess Returns, Graeme Forster of Orbis joins us to discuss two major research papers: Six Courageous Questions for 2026 and Sunrise on Venus. We explore how long-running global trends may be reversing, what that means for U.S. dominance, the future of international and emerging markets, the risks and opportunities created by AI and massive CapEx spending, the dollar’s shifting role, and how investors should think about valuation, humility, and navigating a world where the economic “water” is changing. This conversation is packed with global macro insight, long-term investing lessons, and practical frameworks for building more resilient portfolios. Topics Covered: • Why long-term market “water” becomes invisible to investors • Self-reinforcing global cycles and how China’s WTO entry reshaped the world • Signs the 25-year U.S. outperformance cycle may be breaking • How tariffs, political shifts, and corporate reforms change the global landscape • Why international and emerging markets may now offer better expected returns • Why U.S. large caps are not the entire story of American exceptionalism • How to think about valuation, margins, and discounted cash flow models across markets • The AI boom, bubbles, capital cycles, and asymmetric outcomes • How AI CapEx constraints influence winners and losers • The shifting role of the U.S. dollar and why market shocks may behave differently • Maslow’s hierarchy, needs vs. wants, and the return of state-driven capital investment • Deglobalization, reshoring, and the national-security lens for investing • How to evaluate China and Taiwan inside emerging markets • Why humility is an investor’s greatest edge Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:02 Why Orbis wrote Six Courageous Questions for 2026 03:44 The David Foster Wallace “water” analogy and investing 06:12 How a 25-year self-reinforcing cycle powered U.S. outperformance 10:12 Signs the cycle may be breaking 12:00 Corporate reform and opportunity in Asia 13:55 Why active share, benchmarking, and incentives distort investor behavior 17:31 Decomposing S&P 500 returns: margins, valuations, fundamentals 20:20 Expected returns inside and outside the U.S. 22:34 Why international stocks offer richer opportunity sets 24:25 Currency implications and weakening dollar dynamics 26:18 American exceptionalism beyond the top 10 mega caps 28:49 Where Orbis is finding value today 30:25 Biotech, healthcare, and post-COVID dislocation 31:05 How Orbis thinks about valuation in an intangible-heavy world 32:09 Is AI a bubble or the beginning of something bigger? 34:30 Game theory of AI CapEx and right-tail outcomes 36:00 CapEx cycles, history, and who benefits 38:00 Indirect AI beneficiaries and the SK Square example 40:35 Maslow’s hierarchy and the shift from wants to needs 42:32 Deglobalization, national security, and domestic reinvestment 44:00 Capital returning to home markets and strategic industries 46:00 Can anything reverse these structural trends? 48:00 Balancing bottom-up investing with macro awareness 49:45 The deeper risk in emerging markets: owning vs. avoiding 51:00 Valuation still matters for long-term returns 52:29 Corporate behavior, dividends, and re-rating cycles 53:52 How Orbis views China vs. bottom-up opportunity 55:34 Why great investors must be right 90–95% of the time in decision quality 58:00 One lesson Graeme would teach the average investor

James Grant, legendary founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on cycles, interest rates, inflation, credit, the Federal Reserve, private markets, gold, and the future of investing. Grant brings five decades of historical perspective to today’s market extremes, explaining why this era of ultra-low interest rates created distortions that will shape returns for years to come — and where patient investors may ultimately find opportunity. Topics Covered • The historical patterns that define major market cycles • Why interest rate cycles unfold over generations • What the 2021 bond market top tells us about the next decade • How inflation behaves like an underground coal fire • The shift from “capitalism without capital” to the “tangible twenties” • Geopolitical tension, military spending, and inflation risk • The Fed’s role in shaping today’s market distortions • The long-term consequences of QE and financial repression • Private credit, opaque marks, and the fragility beneath the surface • Rising risks inside life insurance balance sheets • Why credit cycles always go further than anyone expects • The challenge of finding long opportunities in today’s market • Why liquidity and patience may be the biggest opportunities • Whether the classic 60/40 portfolio still works • Gold as money and why confidence in paper currencies is eroding • Jim Grant’s one lesson for the average investor Timestamps 00:00 Cycle extremes and market absurdities 01:00 Interest rates over generations 07:00 Defining major tops and bottoms 12:30 Where we are in the current rate cycle 14:00 Inflation, armed conflict, and tangible investment 18:00 The “tangible twenties” and data center boom 19:00 Coal fire inflation analogy 20:00 Fed independence, politics, and monetary power 25:00 The long shadow of the 2008 crisis 30:00 QE, zero rates, and long-term consequences 33:00 Housing affordability and locked-in rates 34:00 Risks in private credit and opaque marks 36:00 How far the credit cycle has progressed 38:00 Japan, value investing, and long cycles 43:00 Where opportunities exist today 47:00 The future of the 60/40 portfolio 49:00 Structural risks from low-rate distortions 51:00 Freedom, politics, and economic consequences 56:00 Gold as money 58:00 What Jim Grant believes most investors disagree with 59:30 The one lesson Jim Grant would teach the average investor

In this episode, we’re joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim’s latest charts from Paulsen Perspectives and explore what they mean for stocks, sectors, interest rates, the dollar, and leadership in the year ahead. Topics covered in this episode: • The state of inflation and why CPI and PPI may be sending a very different message • The 20-year collapse in real sustainable GDP growth • Why job creation, labor force growth, and productivity have all structurally weakened • The rise in unemployment duration and what it signals about lost “animal spirits” • How demographics, immigration policy, and cultural shifts are shaping growth • Productivity puzzles: innovation vs. distraction in a tech-driven economy • Why the real economic risk may be deflation, not inflation • How monetary policy, the yield curve, the dollar, and fiscal policy have remained contractionary • Tariffs as a hidden tax and their real impact on inflation • How an easing cycle could reshape market leadership in 2026 • Jim’s Total Policy Stimulus Index and what it reveals about small caps, cyclicals, value, and foreign stocks • The difference between today’s tech cycle and the dot-com bubble • What a broadening market might look like if policy finally turns supportive • How international equities could respond to a weaker dollar • Why tech may underperform without collapsing • Jim’s expectations for S&P 500 returns in 2026 and the potential for a more balanced leadership environment Timestamps: 00:00 Market setup and inflation overview 02:00 Reviewing recent corrections and sector broadening 04:00 Bond yields, easing expectations, and fear-based asset leadership 06:00 Tech’s relative performance beginning to fade 07:00 GDP growth collapse over two decades 09:00 Structural slowdown in job creation 10:30 Labor force growth and aging demographics 12:00 The doubling of unemployment duration 14:00 Population trends, immigration, and slowing productivity 17:00 The rise of de-risking and falling monetary velocity 19:00 Trade deficits, globalization, and policy contraction 22:00 Why inflation risk may be overstated 26:00 CPI/PPI data versus the inflation narrative 29:00 Money supply, real rates, and the longest yield curve inversion 31:00 The strong dollar as a contractionary force 34:00 International stock performance and currency impact 35:00 Tax burden relative to slower growth 37:00 Tariffs as taxes and their real economic effect 39:00 What would it take to restore growth and optimism? 42:00 The Total Policy Stimulus Index explained 47:00 Policy’s impact on equal-weight, small caps, cyclicals, and value 52:00 How foreign stocks respond to policy and the dollar 54:00 Tech valuations today vs. the dot-com era 55:00 Fed response differences between now and 2000 57:00 Why today’s tech cycle is structurally different 59:00 What 2026 might look like for the S&P 500 01:01:00 Why price targets are inherently unreliable 01:01:45 Closing thoughts and sign-off

In this special episode of Excess Returns, we share the most important investing lessons from more than 50 of our top guests. After asking more than 200 investors, strategists, academics, and market thinkers the same closing question about the one lesson they would teach the average investor, we compiled the most powerful, timeless, and repeatable insights into a single episode. This collection highlights common themes around patience, discipline, humility, diversification, risk management, and long-term thinking, while revealing how great investors navigate markets, behavior, and uncertainty. Main topics covered: Why investing is about preserving and growing wealth, not getting rich Why neither get in nor get out is an investing strategy The role of base rates in decision-making The dangers of performance chasing Why you should look at your portfolio less often The importance of independent thinking and avoiding envy Treating stocks as businesses, not trading sardines Diversification across assets, strategies, and economic regimes The behavioral traps that destroy wealth Liquidity, supply and demand, and how markets really function The value of patience, long-term thinking, and sticking to your plan How to build a resilient portfolio that survives different market environments Why simplicity often beats complexity The role of humility, self-awareness, and keeping emotions out of investing Timestamps:00:00 Investing is about preserving and growing wealth00:45 Why neither get in nor get out is a strategy01:16 How we arrived at the one-lesson question02:00 Finding a portfolio you can live with03:00 Avoiding envy and chasing 10-baggers04:00 Why watching markets too closely hurts results05:00 The Matt Levine rule of unbelievable returns06:00 The power of base rates08:00 Look at your portfolio as little as possible10:00 Treat your holdings like real businesses12:00 Be invested early and think independently14:00 Be kind to yourself and keep taking action15:58 Do not chase performance17:00 Treat every position like you put it on today18:31 Your portfolio is secondary to your life19:44 Buy when others are fearful20:00 Be Rip Van Winkle, not Nostradamus22:00 Navigate the noise and avoid the siren song23:38 The value of simplicity and studying history24:59 Patience and tuning out the noise26:00 True diversification and preparing for unknown regimes27:50 Stick to a strategy that fits your personality29:00 Diversify and be humble about what you know30:00 Most results come from the market, not manager skill32:38 Keep investing simple34:00 Focus on what is knowable35:00 Believe in long-term economic and market resilience37:00 Get out of your own way38:22 Build a philosophy you can stick to39:00 Misjudging probabilities and confidence40:46 Book your gains and contain your losses41:00 Diversification is protection against bad luck42:00 Supply, demand, and liquidity always matter45:00 Markets as a political utility46:00 Find something real if you want true alpha47:00 Write down your decisions48:32 Why 100 percent indexing is unrealistic for most50:00 Alpha through portfolio structure, not just stock picking52:00 Dividends and long-run investing53:56 Valuation, time horizons, and patience55:00 Embracing uncertainty and avoiding pigeonholing56:33 Rules-based processes57:35 Buy good businesses, not just cheap ones59:00 Think long term and save early01:01:00 Focus on the basics first01:02:00 Avoid catastrophic losses01:03:22 Evidence-based investing and avoiding resulting01:04:09 Know what you own and keep fees low01:05:00 Simple strategies often work best01:06:00 Compounding and emotional control01:07:00 Treat savings as savings, not lottery tickets01:07:50 Balance enjoying today with protecting tomorrow01:08:00 Stay invested and think long term01:08:41 Be humble, patient, and systematic01:09:00 Do your own work and build conviction

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ben explains why AI buildout is consuming enormous resources, how this echoes World War II scale mobilization, why consumers are already feeling the strain, and what policies could still steer the country toward a healthier economic path. Topics covered: • Why the AI narrative flipped from optimism to national security • How AI CapEx creates shortages of energy, capital, and investment elsewhere • The parallels between AI buildout and World War II economic mobilization • Why the promise of AI-driven productivity and leisure was never realistic • The coming squeeze on consumers through higher prices and reduced availability • Why energy bottlenecks and electricity scarcity may lead to rationing • The risk of stagflation and a shrinking job base as AI replaces human labor • The political paths this could take, from authoritarianism to backlash • Ben’s three-policy plan: reshoring, energy expansion, and electricity caps • How investors should think about the boom-bust risk of hyperscale growth • Why awareness and public conversation are essential before the window closes Timestamps: 00:00 AI narrative shift and the failure of the carrot 01:20 Measuring narratives through Perscient Pro 05:30 Why Ben wrote World War AI 07:30 The carrot vs. the stick in AI storytelling 11:00 Utility bills, consumer squeeze, and rising economic pressures 12:30 World War II-level spending and debt dynamics 15:30 Crowding out the consumer economy 17:00 Interest rates, borrowing, and capital shortages 20:00 Energy usage, electricity scarcity, and cost-push inflation 24:00 Rationing risk and historical parallels 26:00 Jobs, productivity, and AI’s impact on labor 31:00 The lack of new job creation in an AI-driven economy 33:00 Why new-tech job optimism does not apply here 38:00 Market skepticism and narrative extremes 41:00 Political risk, backlash, and potential future paths 42:20 The three policies: reshoring, energy buildout, electricity caps 49:30 Investment implications and the boom-bust cycle 55:00 How AI growth must be subordinated to broader economic goals 57:00 Why connecting consumer pain to AI buildout is essential 59:30 Early signs of state-level limits on data centers 01:02:00 Where to follow Ben Hunt and the continuing story

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for one of the most wide-ranging and eye-opening conversations we have ever hosted. Louis breaks down how China transformed its economy over the last seven years, why Western observers consistently misunderstand the country’s growth model, and what this means for global markets, AI competition, supply chains, currencies, energy, demographics, and the next decade of investing. If you want a clearer picture of China, global macro dynamics, and the forces shaping markets today, this is essential viewing. Topics covered in this episode: • Why Western investors misread China’s economy • China’s response to the US semiconductor embargo • How China redirected all lending toward industry • The scale and speed of China’s move up the value chain • China’s EV dominance and the BYD vs. Tesla comparison • The new global deflation and reflation forces • Why China now looks like the US did in 2009 • Energy, labor, and industrial competitiveness • China’s open-source AI approach vs. America’s closed systems • “Hunger Games” capitalism and the impact on investors • Where foreign investors consistently get China wrong • The RMB as the most mispriced major asset • How China’s demographics shape policy and markets • Why fears of a Taiwan conflict are overblown • How Louis is positioning for China’s next bull market Timestamps: 00:00 China’s economic shock and the US semiconductor embargo 02:00 What the West gets wrong about China 04:00 Competition, local governments, and industrial incentives 06:10 China’s lending shift: real estate to industry 08:00 China’s rapid climb up the value chain 10:00 BYD vs Tesla and China’s engineering surge 12:30 The global deflationary shock and US–China tensions 15:00 From defense to offense: China’s policy pivot 17:00 China’s reflation and emerging market implications 18:20 Scarcity of energy, labor, and time 21:00 China’s cost advantages vs the US 24:00 Comparing AI strategies: open vs closed systems 28:00 “Hunger Games” capitalism in China 31:30 Investing challenges and opportunities in China 34:00 China’s new high-tech niche champions 37:00 Capital-light Chinese AI vs US capital intensity 40:30 Rethinking US-China blocs and global alliances 44:00 Why Europe will be torn apart by the next phase 45:30 Will China outperform the US over the next decade? 47:00 The massively undervalued RMB 49:00 China’s barbell investment setup 50:00 China’s demographic crisis and policy response 53:00 Taiwan risk: myth vs reality 58:00 How Louis could be wrong 01:00:40 Louis’s contrarian investing belief 01:02:00 Louis’s one lesson for investors

In this episode, we sit down with Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels to break down her new 2026 outlook. We cover her long-term S&P 500 forecast, why she believes we are still early in a secular bull market, how technological innovation is fueling productivity and profitability, the risks she’s watching in 2026, and the case for international stocks, gold, and diversification. Mary Ann also explains why skepticism suggests we are not yet in a true bubble, how valuations fit into today’s market, and what investors should understand about cycles, inflation, and long-term compounding. Topics Covered • Secular bull markets and why the long-term trend still points higher • Whether today’s market is following historic bubble patterns • AI, technology cycles, and the connection between innovation, productivity, and profits • Why skepticism means we are not yet near euphoria • The 2026 “reset” and how the presidential cycle could affect markets • Valuations, earnings trends, and interest-rate dynamics • Market concentration, structural changes, and the role of mega-caps • Growth vs value and why growth leadership may persist • Why international markets may be entering their own secular bull market • Inflation outlook, tariffs, and what the data now suggests • Private credit concerns and overall financial-system stability • Gold’s surge, future targets, and its role as portfolio diversification • Portfolio construction, risk, and the importance of compounding for younger investors Timestamps 00:00 Market patterns, bubbles, and early-cycle dynamics 01:00 Introduction 02:00 Long-term S&P 500 outlook 04:00 Historical bubble analogs and market psychology 06:00 Skepticism vs optimism 09:00 2026 reset and election-year dynamics 13:00 Valuations and PE expansion 17:00 Long-term valuation trends 17:40 Innovation cycles and economic growth 20:20 Productivity, AI CapEx, and profitability 21:00 Technology adoption across industries 22:20 Digitization and long-term tech layers 22:30 Market concentration and structural changes 25:00 Why corrections are more frequent 27:20 Growth vs value 31:00 International markets outlook 36:00 Correlations, deglobalization, and opportunity 38:40 Inflation short-term vs long-term 40:30 Private credit and financial stability 43:30 Gold outlook and targets 45:40 Diversifying concentrated portfolios 48:40 Crypto, private markets, and generational shifts 49:20 Key risks for 2026 51:40 What most investors get wrong 53:00 The one lesson for the average investor 54:40 Closing

In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk with Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, about navigating today’s fixed income landscape. Carl breaks down the major segments of the bond market, explains how credit and interest rate cycles interact, discusses private credit risks, and shares how he builds durable, low-volatility bond portfolios. Drawing on more than two decades managing one of the top multi-sector income funds, Carl offers clear, practical insights for investors trying to understand yields, defaults, duration, and where returns are most attractive today. Main topics covered: • Overview of investment grade, high yield, leveraged loans, and private credit • How today’s credit quality is shifting across the bond market • Why the high yield market may be higher quality than most investors realize • How levered loans and private credit have changed system dynamics • How Carl uses the interest rate cycle and credit cycle to position the portfolio • Why he avoids style boxes and instead buys bonds like a stock picker • The flaws in fixed income indexing and why active management matters more in bonds • How he evaluates companies, business models, leverage, and free cash flow • Why distributors and equipment rental companies are strong long-term bond businesses • The risks of the AI Capex boom and echoes of past bubbles • Where defaults are rising and why private credit concerns may not be systemic • Why his portfolio is short duration and how he uses cash as optionality • How he protects against large drawdowns and manages risk across cycles • His perspective on the Fed, inflation, employment data, and rate cuts • Carl’s one investing belief most peers disagree with • The one lesson he would teach every investor Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and bond market quality shift 01:00 Carl’s background and fund philosophy 02:42 Defining investment grade, high yield, loans, and private credit 08:00 Why high yield quality has improved 10:07 The two-cycle approach: interest rates and credit 14:31 How today’s cycle differs 18:03 Why forecasting matters less than knowing where you are 18:52 Buying bonds like a stock picker 25:28 Index flaws in fixed income 26:56 Sectors Carl prefers 29:16 Thoughts on AI Capex, Nvidia, and financing trends 33:10 Sector concentration in bond portfolios 34:51 Position sizing and portfolio construction 35:43 Cracks in private credit and default data 39:45 Private credit for retail investors 40:34 Why Carl is short duration today 44:57 Using cash and liquidity as a strategic tool 45:44 Risk management and drawdowns 47:29 The Fed, inflation, employment, and policy uncertainty 53:53 Closing questions: belief peers disagree with 54:45 One lesson for the average investor

Follow Us on Substack: https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/ In this episode, we sit down with Rob Arnott for a wide-ranging discussion on bubbles, valuations, AI spending, market history, index construction, and long-term return expectations. Rob explains how to think about bubbles in real time, why today’s market echoes the late 1990s, and what investors can practically do to improve future returns. He also digs into Research Affiliates’ latest work on fundamental indexing, growth investing, and the opportunities in international and emerging markets. Topics covered: • How Rob defines a bubble and why narrative drives market pricing • Lessons from the dot-com era that apply to today’s AI-driven market • Why disruptors eventually get disrupted • Practical portfolio steps for investors concerned about concentration • Why value stocks remain historically cheap • CapEx vs R and D and what history says about future returns • The role of AI spending and why many companies struggle to monetize it • How AI may reshape industries and who the real long-term winners could be • Index construction flaws and how RA’s RAFI and RACWI approaches differ • A new way to build growth indexes using actual business growth • Why expensive companies with slow growth are the worst quadrant to own • Insights on emerging markets, international value, and forward return expectations • How Rob invests personally and what he sees as the best long-term opportunities Timestamps: 00:00 Defining bubbles and why narrative matters 02:00 Are we in a bubble today 06:20 Lessons from the dot-com boom 12:00 What investors can practically do now 14:00 Value, RAFI, and rebalancing alpha 17:00 AI CapEx and its historical parallels 20:30 Who benefits most from AI 23:00 Disruption, technology cycles, and productivity 35:00 Reinventing index construction 40:00 A new way to define and weight growth stocks 43:30 The problem with expensive slow-growth companies 46:00 Magnificent Seven through the growth lens 52:00 Rob’s outlook on emerging markets 55:00 Why the US is priced for perfection 57:00 Averaging out and trimming expensive winners 58:00 New research and future product ideas from RA 59:00 Rob’s personal portfolio approach and long-short ideas 01:00:20 Closing thoughts and outlook

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Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost. Topics covered:• The late-cycle economy and the disconnect between markets and weakening real-world data• Why labor markets look softer than headlines suggest• How tariffs are affecting inflation, growth, and consumer spending• The Fed’s policy bind and why reasonable cases exist for both cutting and holding• The slowdown in household income growth and the idea of a “slow-cession”• AI spending, productivity claims, and why the economic benefits are not yet showing up• The self-referential nature of Big Tech AI spending and poor return on AI CapEx• Why real-economy companies may not see meaningful profit uplift from AI• The private credit and private equity concerns Bob sees building• Hidden risks and information asymmetry in private-market products• New hedge-fund-style ETF strategies built using replication technology• Equity long-short, global macro, and managed futures as standalone ETF exposures• Why fee reduction is the most durable source of hedge-fund alpha• How advisors are shifting from 60/40 toward 50/30/20 allocations with alternatives Timestamps:00:00 Macro conditions and weakening labor market02:00 Disconnect between markets and the real economy04:00 Working without government data during the shutdown06:00 Inflation trends and tariff impacts10:00 Fed policy, cuts, and late-cycle dynamics12:30 Income-driven vs debt-driven cycles15:00 Slow-cession and household spending power18:30 Fed uncertainty and prediction challenges21:00 Why the Fed paused quantitative tightening25:00 Liquidity, reserves, and bank system mechanics28:00 Equity markets, expectations, and AI mania31:00 AI spending, productivity doubts, and return on investment37:00 Business models, layoffs, and macro implications40:00 Private credit, private equity, and hidden risks45:00 How some private-market ETFs may disadvantage retail investors47:00 New Unlimited ETF strategies and how replication works52:00 Equity long-short, macro, and managed futures inside an ETF55:00 Late-cycle benefits of tactical positioning57:00 Future strategies and expanding the replication lineup59:00 Fee advantages and democratizing hedge-fund-style returns

Subscribe on Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠ Subscribe on Apple Podcasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠https://youtube.com/@excessreturns In this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Bogumil Baranowski, and Matt Zeigler dive deep into what truly makes a great business and how long-term investors can develop the conviction to hold through volatility, dead-money periods, and inevitable mistakes. They break down the characteristics of the perfect business, the behavioral challenges of long-term investing, the pain of errors of omission, how to evaluate management, and why returns on capital and cash generation matter so much over decades.

Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely withdraw closer to 4.7% — or even more — under certain conditions. We explore the data behind his findings, how to think about inflation, valuations, longevity, and sequence of returns risk, and the philosophy of living well in retirement. Topics covered: ​The origins and evolution of the 4% rule​How Bill discovered the worst-case retirement scenario (1968)​The role of inflation and market valuations in withdrawal rates​Why he now recommends 65% equities instead of 55%​How diversification increases sustainable withdrawals​The logic behind a U-shaped equity glide path​Sequence of returns risk and how to mitigate it​Thoughts on the permanent portfolio and gold​Bucket strategies and cash reserves​Dynamic vs. fixed withdrawal methods​How longevity and FIRE affect planning horizons​Why retirees should spend and enjoy more​The philosophy behind “A Richer Retirement”Timestamps:00:00 The origins of the 4% rule03:00 The 1968 retirement “buzz saw” scenario07:00 Common misconceptions about the 4% rule10:00 Inflation and valuation adjustments13:00 Diversification and higher withdrawal rates15:00 Longevity, FIRE, and extended retirements16:00 The U-shaped equity glide path18:00 Rebalancing and allocation timing19:00 The permanent portfolio and gold20:00 Sequence of returns risk explained22:00 Cash reserves and bucket strategies23:00 Dynamic withdrawal approaches24:00 Why the rule is now closer to 4.7%27:00 The changing market environment29:00 Key charts and frameworks from the book31:00 The eight essential elements of planning33:00 Withdrawal strategies and asset allocation34:00 Required minimum distributions36:00 Reflections on creating the 4% rule38:00 Bill’s philosophy on life and retirement40:00 Closing thoughts and where to find his book

Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions. Main topics covered: ​Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and life​How to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock prices​Why multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcuts​Understanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is good​Lessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision making​How humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgment​Reflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative process

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China’s resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he’s positioning across equities, credit, and real assets in what he believes could be the start of a long cycle shift away from U.S. dominance. Topics covered: China’s accelerating industrial and market recovery Why he sees the start of an 8–10 year bull market in China The “CapEx time bomb” under the Mag 7 U.S. vs. international equity performance and valuations The rise of fallen angels and how private credit changed high yield Why he may soon flip from short to long credit The end of the stock-bond correlation era His “Bushy” portfolio and defensive positioning Trend following, precious metals, and EM local debt Emerging opportunities in Africa and Uzbekistan The global energy complex and long-dated crude exposure Short ideas in fast casual restaurants and the “forgotten 493” How investor sentiment extremes create opportunity Timestamps: 00:00 China’s transformation and why Rupert’s bullish 05:00 The Made in China 2025 plan and global dominance 07:00 U.S. vs. international equity rotation 10:00 The Mag 7’s CapEx problem 14:00 The “forgotten 493” and passive flow dynamics 18:00 Bonds, credit spreads, and what the yield curve says 21:00 Private credit, fallen angels, and the next credit setup 25:00 The end of risk parity and correlation breakdown 27:00 Inside the Bushy portfolio and alternatives 30:00 Gold, miners, and precious metals strategy 33:00 Frontier and EM opportunities – Africa and Uzbekistan 39:00 The Acorns portfolio and global positioning 44:00 Energy stocks, refiners, and long-dated crude 49:00 The restaurant short thesis and U.S. consumer trends 53:00 Where to follow Rupert and Blind Squirrel Macro

Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investors, and how to think about the real opportunities hiding beneath the market's current narrow leadership. Richard breaks down his profit cycle framework, shares why investors are confusing economic stories for investment stories, and explains why non-US quality stocks and dividend strategies may be primed for a comeback.Topics covered• Speculation across asset classes and why it matters• Why fundamentals still offer big opportunities• The profit cycle vs the economic cycle• Divergence between the market leaders and the broader market• Inflation, pricing power, and corporate margins• Parallels between the AI boom and the dot-com bubble• Misallocation of capital and risks to the market• The case for non-US quality stocks• Where value investing could shine again• Dividend compounding and long-term wealth building• How RBA approaches macro-driven ETF investing• What investors are getting wrong about diversification• Deglobalization, reindustrialization, and long-term themes Timestamps00:00 Intro and speculative environment01:46 Best opportunities for patient investors03:52 Profit cycle framework explained06:00 Where we are in the profit cycle07:32 What investors are missing on inflation09:12 Lessons from the dot-com era and AI comparisons13:46 What could trigger the speculative unwind17:18 Valuations, CAPE, and return expectations20:23 AI’s impact on margins and productivity22:39 Can value outperform again25:41 International opportunities and quality stocks34:31 Market breadth and narrow leadership36:00 The Fed, inflation targeting, and policy risks40:11 RBA’s investment process and ETF selection47:13 Diversification vs speculation behavior49:26 Misallocation of capital and market risks52:00 Deglobalization and manufacturing opportunities54:13 Closing question: Stock market vs horse race57:40 The business Richard would start today58:29 Where to follow Richard Bernstein

In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocation, valuation signals, buybacks, managed futures, and the dangers of extrapolating past returns into the future. Topics covered: • Victor’s journey from LTCM to simple, systematic investing • Why position sizing is as important as what you own • How to think about expected returns and valuation frameworks like CAPE and P-CAPE • The role of risk, risk premia, and personal utility in portfolio decisions • Why 60/40 and the permanent portfolio ignore expected returns • Buybacks, market elasticity, and capital flows • Indexing misconceptions and asset allocation discipline • The ETF structure and tax efficiency in asset allocation strategies • Concentration in large tech stocks and long-term equity returns • The importance of dynamic asset allocation vs static allocation • Key lessons for individual investors and avoiding “too good to be true” opportunities Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Victor’s investing journey 03:00 Lessons from LTCM and shift to simplicity 09:00 Position sizing vs asset selection 13:00 Risk as a cost and thinking in expected returns 18:00 CAPE and the P-CAPE framework 26:00 How to use expected return estimates 34:00 The impact of buybacks on equity markets 39:00 Indexing vs poor asset allocation habits 43:00 Portfolio construction and global diversification 46:00 Why the permanent portfolio falls short 47:00 Managed futures and factors beyond stocks and bonds 50:00 Inside Elm’s dynamic allocation ETF 55:00 Market concentration and equity issuance risks 01:01:00 The case for dynamic allocation 01:02:50 Victor’s one investing lesson

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Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification, and building portfolios for a world where liquidity flows dictate outcomes. Main topics covered ​Why we are in a bubble but still likely to go higher first​Fundamentals vs liquidity as drivers of returns​Options as the “3-D” market and how they now drive equities​Reflexivity and how option flows influence asset prices​Retail adoption of options and misperceptions in the space​AI investment boom, tail risks, and market liquidity feedback loops​Historical valuation regimes and recency bias in markets​Portfolio construction beyond the 60/40 model​Tail hedging and the role of long volatility​Importance of true diversification and managing interest-rate riskTimestamps00:00 Bubble dynamics and why being bullish can coexist with danger 03:00 Fundamentals vs liquidity as market drivers 08:00 Rise of options and how they now influence markets 14:00 Reflexivity explained in simple terms 19:00 Mistakes investors make with options and structured products 24:00 AI spending, liquidity expansion, and similarities to 1999 31:00 Tail risks, China/Taiwan, private markets, inflation signals 38:00 Why 60/40 has worked recently – and why it may fail ahead 52:00 Inequality, cycles, crisis as a clearing mechanism 54:00 Building a portfolio for the next decade: diversification, tail hedging, box spreads, and non-correlated strategies 1:04:00 Closing thoughts and takeaway for investors

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be captured as the cycle plays out. Topics covered: Why big tech’s CapEx spending has exploded and how much they’re investing The trillions in revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure spending Historical parallels with the railroad and dot-com buildouts Why companies that invest heavily often underperform How the Mag 7 are shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses The risks of “circular deals” and financial entanglement in AI Why the AI race resembles a prisoner’s dilemma Which layers of the AI stack may capture long-term value How early adopters and infrastructure players differ in capital intensity and returns Where investors might find opportunity beyond the obvious AI names Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and overview of AI CapEx boom 03:00 Why Kai researched AI investment cycles 05:00 Scale of big tech’s CapEx spending 07:00 Revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure 08:30 Market concentration and valuation risks 11:30 Historical parallels: railroads, internet, and AI 14:30 The capital cycle and overinvestment dynamics 17:30 “This time is different?” and lessons from bubbles 18:00 Factor investing and high-asset-growth underperformance 21:00 Sector and firm-level CapEx trends 22:30 Winner-take-all dynamics and competitive pressure 26:00 How the Mag 7’s business model is changing 30:00 Comparing tech CapEx to utilities 34:00 The circular deal problem and financial risk 37:30 The AI arms race as a prisoner’s dilemma 40:30 Will AI be winner-take-all? 43:30 Lessons from the railroad and dot-com eras 47:00 Where the value is captured in infrastructure vs adoption 48:00 Identifying early AI adopters and hidden beneficiaries 50:30 Sector and geographic AI exposure 54:00 Capital intensity and valuation differences between infrastructure and adopters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to hedge against inflation, interest rate shifts, and volatility in a unique way. We also discuss the bond market, inflation dynamics, and how investors can better understand and manage risks that are often hidden inside traditional portfolios. Main topics covered • How Nancy’s experience trading volatility at Goldman Sachs shaped her investment philosophy • Why most investors are short volatility without realizing it • Understanding convexity and prepayment risk in bond portfolios • The rise of passive investing and its impact on interest rate volatility • How IVOL provides exposure to interest rate volatility and inflation protection • The problem with relying on CPI as a measure of inflation • Why gold is an inconsistent inflation hedge • The yield curve as an alternative indicator of inflation expectations • Why interest rate volatility is historically cheap today • The relationship between bond volatility and stock volatility • How to think about IVOL and BNDD in a diversified portfolio • The long-term risks of shorting volatility and selling options for “income” Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and overview of option selling in markets 02:15 Nancy’s background at Goldman Sachs and lessons on volatility 05:00 Understanding convexity and its importance in fixed income 06:30 Why investors are short interest rate volatility without knowing it 10:25 The hidden risks inside the bond market and the role of mortgages 11:00 Why most investors are short inflation in real life 13:00 Conventional vs. alternative inflation hedges 17:00 Why CPI is an imperfect inflation measure 18:00 How the yield curve reflects inflation expectations 21:00 Historical yield curve data and current inversion 25:00 Interest rate volatility after Silicon Valley Bank 26:30 Relationship between bond and stock volatility 28:00 Using IVOL in a portfolio 31:00 Discussion on the national debt and interest rate risk 32:00 BNDD ETF and how it complements IVOL 33:30 Why inflation-protected bonds are underused in the US 36:00 Closing questions – what Nancy believes most peers disagree with 37:00 Why selling options is not income and the risks investors overlook

In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concentration risk to ETFs, managed futures, AI, and long-term discipline. Topics covered: The four historical periods of 15%+ annualized stock market returns and what followed Why current U.S. valuations don’t necessarily mean an immediate crash How global value stocks are now outperforming the S&P 500 The role of international diversification and real assets in portfolios Trend following and managed futures as the “premier diversifiers” The benefits of blending trend and valuation-based strategies The permanent portfolio and how managed futures enhance it Concentration risk in U.S. equities and what history teaches about market leadership The parallels (and limits) between today’s market and the dot-com bubble AI’s potential role in investing and portfolio management The behavioral traps around performance chasing and when to sell Lessons from launching and running ETFs and the 351 exchange structure for tax efficiency The future of markets, retail investors, and Meb’s upcoming book “Time Billionaires” Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and market performance context 04:00 Are U.S. valuations permanently higher? 09:00 The spectrum of future returns and investor playbook 12:00 International and value investing opportunities 15:00 Trend following and managed futures 19:00 The permanent portfolio and diversification 25:00 Concentration risk and market structure 28:00 AI’s impact on investing 32:00 Comparing today’s market to the dot-com bubble 37:00 The long-term case for value investing 41:00 When to sell and investor behavior 45:00 Lessons from running ETFs and industry evolution 51:00 Understanding 351 exchanges and tax-efficient investing 57:00 What’s changed most for investors over 20 years 59:00 Meb’s new book “Time Billionaires” and closing thoughts

Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor. Topics covered: Data-driven investing and the “control the controllables” framework Why the U.S. consumer remains resilient Inflation outlook and how sticky prices impact portfolios The Fed’s next moves and what investors should watch Global diversification and the case for international stocks How to think about inflation protection and real assets The diffusion of AI and separating winners from pretenders Market concentration, valuations, and managing risk Life lessons from a CIO: discipline, process, and informed decision-making Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:00 Controlling the controllables 06:00 Why Eric remains optimistic on the economy 10:00 How portfolio decisions flow through US Bank 15:00 Data-driven insights vs. gut feel 18:00 Consumer strength and scorecard 22:40 Inflation outlook and Fed challenges 30:00 Bond market risk and the “Brazilian steakhouse” analogy 34:00 Global competition and diversification 38:00 Inflation protection and real assets 41:30 The reality of AI and productivity 47:00 Market concentration and the Mag 7 52:00 Valuations and long-term returns 55:45 Lessons for investors

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, international diversification, and the right withdrawal rates in retirement. Topics covered: Why macro forecasting rarely works as a long-term investment strategy The four stages of the index investor’s education: darkness, enlightenment, complexity, and simplicity How financial advisors and Wall Street profit from unnecessary complexity The case for international diversification and how to size it correctly The pros and cons of factor investing and why behavioral discipline matters more than factors themselves Why passive investing isn’t “too big” and why indexing works over time How to think about valuations and investor psychology Tips, gold, and how to think about inflation protection Rethinking the 4% withdrawal rule and why goals for heirs matter more than formulas The one piece of advice Rick would give to young investors today Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the four stages of an index investor 03:00 Why macro forecasting fails as an investment tool 07:00 The evolution from complexity to simplicity 13:00 Complexity as job security for advisors 18:00 Should investors own international stocks? 23:00 The behavioral challenge of factor investing 32:00 Is passive investing too big? 34:00 What to do (and not do) with market valuations 37:00 Managing investor behavior through small adjustments 39:00 Inflation, TIPS, and the role of gold 46:00 Why indexing works and what makes it unbeatable 49:00 The 4% rule and smarter withdrawal strategies 57:00 Advice for young investors and what Rick wants his legacy to be

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection on human capital, autonomy, and the behavioral side of markets. Topics covered: How liquidity replaced fundamentals as the market’s main driver Why investors must adapt to desynchronized global cycles The impact of debt, fiscal dominance, and government policy on markets Housing as the next driver of the business cycle How AI, robotics, and quantum computing are shaping the next growth wave The maturation of crypto and what comes after the “altcoin season” Why narratives now drive price and how to read them effectively The risks and opportunities in trading liquidity and fiscal policy The cognitive and behavioral shifts driving modern investing Protecting human capital in the age of AI and automation Timestamps: 00:00 Liquidity and the end of fundamentals 06:17 Three continents, three policies, one fractured world 12:20 Housing as the next driver of the cycle 16:39 Crypto’s evolution and fiscal dominance 23:26 Portfolio positioning in a policy-driven market 29:44 AI, human capital, and the risk to autonomy 36:00 How narratives shape markets and investment themes 52:00 Building a macro narrative and market framework 58:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk premium. The conversation blends timeless investing wisdom with today’s most important macro themes. Main topics covered: Why forecasts don’t work and what investors should do instead The real economic risks of tariffs and immigration restrictions How AI may (or may not) impact productivity and market winners How to build anti-fragile portfolios around macro risks When and how to “sin a little” on bond duration and valuation Lessons from past tech booms and investor overconfidence The 4% of stocks that drive all long-term equity returns The risks of concentration in the S&P 500 Hidden costs of passive investing and large index funds When index and factor funds get too big to trade efficiently Value investing, interest rates, and inflation relationships The evidence on simple value strategies like Piotroski and Magic Formula How to think about growth exposure using quality and low volatility The opportunities and dangers of private credit and interval funds Why illiquidity premiums exist and how to capture them prudently Behavioral discipline, diversification, and long-term compounding lessons Timestamps: 00:00 Forecasting failures and market humility 03:30 Why Larry doesn’t make macro predictions 07:00 The real impact of tariffs and immigration on inflation and growth 11:00 AI, productivity, and the question of who the real winners will be 14:40 How to manage duration risk and “sin a little” 18:00 Investor overconfidence and lessons from past tech booms 21:00 Why only 4% of stocks explain all equity returns 24:00 Market concentration and S&P 500 risk 28:30 Why diversification still matters 30:00 The hidden trading costs of index and factor funds 38:00 How big fund size changes execution and exposure 41:00 Is passive investing too big? 42:30 Value vs growth and interest rate relationships 45:00 Evidence on simple value strategies and Buffett’s alpha 51:00 Factor diversification and one-over-N strategy 54:00 Private credit: opportunity and risks 58:00 Illiquidity premiums and fund structure concerns 01:00:00 Behavioral discipline, patience, and staying diversified

Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time. Main topics covered: Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of markets The case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030 Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longer The key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemployment Comparing today’s market to the dot-com era Why traditional recession indicators have failed How COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronization Inflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watching Why valuation is a broken signal for stock picking The quant factors that matter most today ETF factor exposures and hidden risks How to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private markets Why U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity market Key lessons and philosophies for long-term investors Timestamps: 00:00 What really drives equity investing 03:00 Adam Parker’s background and multi-lens approach 05:00 Why he’s long-term bullish and sees S&P 10,000 08:00 Structural margin expansion and AI productivity 09:00 The three major bear cases 14:00 How today compares to the 1990s tech bubble 18:00 Why the economy has stayed resilient 20:00 COVID’s impact on business cycles 23:00 Market structure, inventory, and margins 24:00 Inflation, tariffs, and Fed outlook 29:00 Deficits and why timing macro risks is hard 32:00 Large vs small cap dynamics 37:00 Why valuation doesn’t work 41:00 Key quant factors to watch 43:00 ETF grading and hidden exposures 46:00 The 60/40 portfolio and asset allocation 51:00 U.S. vs Europe and innovation advantage 55:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today’s “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather’s Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narrative collapse can turn small defaults into systemic crises. He and Matt Zeigler explore what’s really happening beneath the surface of private markets, how common knowledge shifts shape investor behavior, and how Perscient Pro’s “storyboards” and “semantic signatures” help track the narratives driving markets in real time. Main topics covered Why Ben believes we’re at a “trust-breaking” moment similar to 2007 The Godfather analogy and what frauds reveal about human behavior How private credit has evolved into today’s “shadow banking” system Flow machines, hidden leverage, and why opacity is intentional The dangers of informational asymmetry between investors and lenders How broken trust creates chain reactions in financial systems The link between narrative collapse and liquidity crises Common knowledge, crowd reactions, and market psychology Doom loops between Wall Street and the real economy How Perscient Pro tracks financial narratives using semantic signatures Why gold’s current rally is about safety, not debasement What investors should monitor next in credit, housing, and macro narratives Timestamps 0:00 Hidden leverage and the trust problem 1:04 Introduction to Ben Hunt and Epsilon Theory 2:12 The Tessio analogy – betrayal and the structure of fraud 6:10 How private credit became today’s shadow banking system 10:55 Flow machines and why opacity is intentional 14:48 Trust breaks and the “funding stops first” dynamic 18:35 The Biden “common knowledge” moment explained 21:00 What happens when narratives collapse 24:26 Apollo, asymmetric information, and shorting First Brands 28:00 Hidden leverage and the domino effects of default 33:40 The “doom loop” between Wall Street and the real economy 39:10 Why Silicon Valley Bank was different 44:18 What a “run on Wall Street” could look like 48:00 Perscient Pro and tracking financial storyboards 53:32 Semantic signatures and narrative detection 57:10 Housing, inflation, and gold storyboards 1:00:48 Where to follow Ben Hunt and learn more about Perscient Pro

In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, and what it means for investors. The conversation also covers how companies like Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Meta fit into this AI cycle, the energy demands of AI, and the future of AI-driven investing through Intelligent Alpha and its GPT ETF. Topics covered: • Why Gene and Doug believe AI represents a once-in-a-generation wealth creation opportunity • How AI may impact corporate profitability and hiring trends • The political and social dynamics slowing AI adoption • Doug’s “detective, people-pleaser, and tastemaker” framework for future human jobs • How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to manage portfolios • The advantages of AI-driven investment models over humans • Economic and market implications of an AI productivity boom • The hardware-data-application structure of technological cycles • The role of energy, especially nuclear and solar, in supporting AI growth • The competitive race among model providers like OpenAI, Google, and Meta • Apple’s long-term AI positioning and potential comeback • Tesla’s valuation, autonomy vision, and the future of robotics • The inevitability and function of bubbles in breakthrough technologies • The rise of private markets and retail investor access to innovation • Future frontiers in quantum computing and biotechnology Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Deepwater’s AI thesis 03:00 Why AI marks a multi-year bull market opportunity 08:00 Political reality and limits of AI deployment 11:00 The future of human work: detectives, people-pleasers, tastemakers 16:00 Inside Intelligent Alpha and the GPT ETF 19:00 Why AI can outperform human managers 25:00 How AI affects productivity, margins, and employment 26:00 Hardware, data, and application cycle in AI 28:00 The energy constraint: nuclear, gas, and solar 29:30 The model race: OpenAI, Google, Meta 34:00 Apple’s role and long-term AI potential 39:30 Tesla, autonomy, and long-term disruption 44:00 Are bubbles necessary for technological revolutions? 49:00 Private vs. public investing in innovation 51:00 Beyond AI: quantum computing and life extension technologies 54:45 Closing thoughts

Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett’s real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan’s trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets. Main topics covered:• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett’s approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength• Why Buffett’s General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces• Lessons from Buffett’s Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d’œil), and character in long-term investing• Charlie Munger’s blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire Hathaway Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and overview of Tobias Carlisle’s key ideas02:00 Applying Sun Tzu’s “invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength” to Buffett06:00 The General Re acquisition as a defensive masterpiece12:00 Victory without conflict — Buffett’s Apple investment19:00 The principle of via negativa and avoiding ruin22:00 Survival, temperament, and controlling emotion in investing25:00 Circle of competence and the power of simplicity28:00 Sins of omission vs. sins of commission32:00 Temperament, intellect, and avoiding self-defeat40:00 Wu wei and investing with effortless alignment49:00 Position sizing, concentration, and the Kelly Criterion50:00 Buffett’s investments in Japan’s trading houses56:00 Reputation, intuition, and the power of pattern recognition61:00 Charlie Munger’s blueprint and Buffett’s strategic genius64:00 Closing thoughts and where to find Tobias online

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk management. From his early days in the Turtle Trading program to running Chesapeake Capital today, Jerry explains what it takes to survive and thrive as a systematic trader in an uncertain world. Topics covered: • The origins of the Turtle Trading program and what Jerry learned from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt • How trend following has evolved from short-term to longer-term systems • Why trading psychology is harder than following the rules • The role of discomfort and doing “hard things” in successful investing • The design and diversification of a robust trading universe • Risk management, drawdowns, and letting profits run • Why trend following belongs alongside a 60/40 portfolio • How ETFs are expanding access to managed futures strategies • Incorporating crypto and new markets into trend following systems • The internal truths of trend following and why smooth returns can be dangerous Timestamps: 00:00 Trading should be hard 02:00 The origins of the Turtle Trading program 08:00 Evolution of trend following systems 12:00 The psychology of following rules 16:00 The famous Turtle Trader true/false test 20:00 Could the Turtle program work today? 23:00 Building a diversified trading universe 28:00 Risk management and position sizing 32:00 How trend following complements 60/40 portfolios 38:00 Managed futures, stocks, and diversification 41:00 The rise of trend-following ETFs 45:00 Incorporating crypto and futures 48:00 Where the strongest trends are now 52:00 AI and systematic investing 53:30 The internal truths of trend following 56:00 The belief Jerry holds that most investors would disagree with

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Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal. Main topics covered • The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime • Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal • Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic • The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today • Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis” • How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again • Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further • Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend • Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world • AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation • What could ultimately break the debasement regime Timestamps 00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset 07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel 10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook 16:42 The labor market’s “malignant stasis” and what it signals 21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment 29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt 34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,000 38:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps 41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations 45:08 Gold’s breakout and how to manage the position 50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era 54:32 AI’s potential to reshape productivity and demographics 57:13 What could end the debasement regime 59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals

Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction. Topics covered: Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing Andy’s Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows How AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stops Tariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growth The Fed’s independence and what it means for markets Risk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environments How major flows and corporate buybacks shape market direction Why Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomes Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and setup 02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing 14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained 22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom 33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy 39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios 40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment 47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty 48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation 56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt 01:00:00 What Andy’s watching next 01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital

In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S. Topics covered: The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash” The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders” Timestamps: 00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk 02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets 06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity 08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump 12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline 15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation 20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility 26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation 36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities 42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance 47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook 51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity 56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy 01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment 01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end. Main topics covered: • The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum • The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process • Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction • Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase • Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples • Trends in financials and what’s driving sector rotations • Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning • The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration • Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar • How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving • Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-end Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup 04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators 07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages 10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals 12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market 15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq 18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade 20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation 23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy 25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups 27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning 29:00 Financials and recent weakness 31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy 34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration 37:00 Gold’s breakout and sell discipline using technicals 41:00 Oil’s setup and resistance levels 43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis 46:20 The dollar index and its key levels 48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds 51:10 Final takeaways and closing

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem. Topics covered: How AI is driving a new era of electricity demand The evolving U.S. energy mix: oil, gas, nuclear, and renewables Why electricity is becoming the new oil The scale of power needed to support AI and data centers Opportunities and challenges in renewables and battery storage The resurgence of nuclear and the role of natural gas How U.S. shale transformed inflation and global energy markets Energy infrastructure and why it offers steady returns How the TCAI ETF captures the “AI infrastructure” opportunity Risks and resilience of the U.S. power grid Lessons from 30 years investing in energy Timestamps: 00:00 Electricity is the new oil and the future of AI energy demand 02:00 The evolving U.S. energy mix and global demand growth 08:00 Why electricity, not oil, will power the next economic era 11:00 How much power AI and data centers will need 15:00 Can renewables meet rising energy demand? 20:00 The comeback of nuclear and its challenges 25:00 How U.S. shale changed global energy and inflation 32:00 Why energy infrastructure is less volatile than commodities 36:00 Inside Tortoise’s new AI infrastructure ETF (TCAI) 43:00 The rise of digital and electricity infrastructure plays 45:00 How Tortoise evaluates investments and valuations 49:00 The resilience and future expansion of the U.S. grid 52:00 Closing lessons: contrarian investing and energy’s importance

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing’s most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money periods, family wealth stewardship, and how to think about value versus price in a noisy world. Topics covered: • The “cheapest dentist” analogy and why investors chase bargains • The three phases of investor evolution: cheap, good, and exceptional • Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Graham on paying up for quality • How to hold through drawdowns and dead money periods • Why patience and conviction are the hardest investing skills • Frugality, compounding, and lessons from his grandmother • How long-term family investors think about wealth and stewardship • The difference between price and value in modern markets • How to know when cheap is too cheap and quality is worth paying for • Why great investments are often simple to explain • The story behind his Wall Street Journal essay “The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investments” Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction – The cheapest dentist analogy 03:00 Why investors love cheap stocks 07:00 The evolution from bargain hunter to quality investor 09:00 Examples from Ben Graham, Buffett, and Facebook 15:30 Conviction, drawdowns, and dead money 19:00 Judging success by business progress, not stock price 27:00 Lessons from grandma on value and frugality 31:00 How Buffett evolved from cheap to quality 45:00 Investing for future generations 49:00 Invisible wealth and stewardship 52:00 The value investor dilemma 58:00 Equal-weight vs market-cap indexes 59:00 Lessons for the average investor 1:02:00 How much research you really need 1:04:30 How his WSJ essay came to life and final takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today’s markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns. Topics covered: Matt’s journey from engineering to investing Lessons learned at DFA and the foundation of evidence-based investing Defining factors and what makes them credible The role of value, momentum, quality, and size in portfolios The challenges of intangibles and redefining value Large cap tech dominance, mean reversion, and whether the world has changed Factor timing, valuation spreads, and Cliff Asness’ “sin” framework How momentum can be integrated with value tilts Portfolio construction: combining factors vs sleeve approaches Implementation challenges for large vs small managers How Longview manages liquidity, turnover, and trading costs The potential impact of AI on factor investing Future opportunities in implementation alpha and ETF design Matt’s biggest investing belief most peers disagree with The key lesson he would teach the average investor Timestamps: 00:00 Value vs returns and factor investing basics 03:00 From engineering and Boeing to investing 06:15 Time at DFA and lessons in evidence-based investing 07:30 What evidence-based investing really means 09:25 Defining factors and what makes them valid 12:00 Using value, profitability, size, and momentum 16:00 Large cap tech dominance and future returns 18:00 Mean reversion and whether the world has changed 20:00 How long does value need to struggle before it’s “dead”? 22:30 Should value be redefined for intangibles? 25:30 Intangibles, R&D, and why adjustments add noise 27:00 Value’s performance across economic cycles and migration 30:00 Interest rates, growth, and value performance 32:00 Factor timing and valuation spreads 34:15 The role of momentum in timing and implementation 35:00 How Longview applies passive-aggressive tilts 36:30 Combining factors vs sleeve approaches 39:00 How momentum is used in practice 41:30 Factor migration and average holding periods 43:00 The size premium and whether it still exists 44:30 The benefits of being nimble vs large fund families 47:30 Liquidity challenges in small cap value 52:00 The role of AI in investing 54:00 Where implementation adds the most alpha 55:30 One belief Matt holds that peers may disagree with 57:20 The one lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading. Topics covered: Noel’s background: biochemistry, military, market making, HFT, hedge fund launch How markets have evolved since the 1990s Why volatility is the best source of market information Regime shift modeling and its role in strategy selection Using options for income and the trade-offs investors should understand Volatility harvesting and risk-defined short vol strategies The impact of zero DTE options on markets Dispersion trading and correlation dynamics Bond vol arbitrage and volatility surfaces Opportunistic trades like GameStop and meme stocks Tail hedging, its costs, and how to monetize hedges Lessons on flexibility, risk, and never being married to positions Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Noel’s unique background 06:00 How markets have changed behind the scenes 07:00 Why volatility is the best information source 09:00 Regime shift model explained 19:00 Using options for income – benefits and risks 24:30 Volatility harvesting strategies 29:10 What the VIX does (and doesn’t) tell you 30:30 Zero DTE options and systemic risk 33:20 Dispersion trading explained 42:00 Bond vol arbitrage 45:00 Opportunistic trades: GameStop and beyond 51:30 Tail hedging and rebalancing 54:30 Lessons on flexibility and risk management

In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he’s learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles. Topics covered in this episode: Why market valuations are harder to use today than in the past The impact of buybacks, margins, and technology on long-term comparisons Market concentration and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks Passive investing flows, investor behavior, and government backstops How AI compares to past technological innovations and its investment implications Value versus growth cycles and why U.S. tech has broken historical norms The lessons of the NASDAQ since 2000 and defining the long term for investors Personal experiences from the 2008 financial crisis and the power of compounding Diversification, gold’s surprising performance, and the case for international investing Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and market valuations 06:00 Structural changes and the role of buybacks 09:00 Margins, efficiency, and corporate dominance 12:00 Market concentration and the rise of mega-cap tech 14:00 Passive investing and household stock ownership 18:00 Government backstops and market resilience 23:00 Valuations as expectations vs. predictions 25:00 AI boom and capital allocation 29:00 Is this 1996 or 1999? Bubble comparisons 32:00 How AI may reshape investing and daily life 41:00 Investing in breakthrough technologies 43:00 Value versus growth cycles in the U.S. and abroad 46:00 Lessons from the NASDAQ and defining long-term investing 49:00 Compounding lessons from the 2008 financial crisis 53:00 Diversification, gold, and international performance

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves. Topics covered in the episode: The job market’s pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisions Why recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systems The narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cycles Investor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability models How easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growth What “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOs The disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measures Gold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today’s environment The impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectations Valuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiples Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and market overview02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks09:00 Bull market without normal supports17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies23:55 Confidence and the misery index29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy34:00 Broadening of market participation37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields45:10 The role of gold in portfolios50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he believes large-cap growth and technology will continue to lead in the years ahead. Main topics covered: John’s path from personal investing to launching an ETF Lessons learned from early stock picks and market-making experience The power of low marginal cost businesses and long-term compounding How AI is reshaping software development, innovation, and profitability The importance of revenue and earnings growth in stock selection Digital toll booths as the future of software business models Differences between profitable vs. unprofitable growth companies Why technology leadership today differs from the dot-com era The role of sectors, valuation, and position sizing in portfolio construction John’s views on growth vs. value, large-cap vs. small-cap, and future innovation trends Timestamps: 00:00 The riskiest thing in investing 02:00 John’s background and early investing journey 05:00 Lessons from Apple, Boeing, Visa, and Potash 10:00 Insights from agriculture and value investing 12:00 AI’s impact on software development and innovation 16:00 Sectors, classifications, and thematic approaches 18:00 Comparing AI disruption to past bubbles 21:00 Profitability in today’s tech companies 22:00 Will the top companies stay dominant? 26:00 Large-cap vs. small-cap technology investing 28:00 Growth vs. value in today’s market 30:00 Demographics, Buffett’s lessons, and sector shifts 34:00 Value vs. software companies 35:00 Digital toll booths explained 37:00 Growth sustainability and digital infrastructure 40:00 Semiconductor cycles and long-term demand 44:00 Screening for growth and low marginal cost 47:00 Sell discipline and valuation checks 49:00 Position sizing and portfolio management 51:00 ETF tax benefits and structure 53:00 Where AOTG fits in portfolios 54:00 One belief peers disagree with 56:00 One lesson for the average investor 57:00 Closing thoughts and outro

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the role of passive investing in today’s markets. Main topics covered: How Joseph achieved long-term outperformance at TCW and what drove his results Why recurring revenue and predictable cash flows are central to his approach The importance of management quality and identifying “fanatics” vs. mercenaries Lessons investors should and should not take from Warren Buffett Bill Miller’s influence and backing of Rainwater Equity Characteristics Joseph looks for in great businesses and red flags in management teams Portfolio concentration, position sizing, and risk management Why you don’t need to have an opinion on every sector Selling discipline and knowing when it’s time to move on How valuation fits into his framework and how he thinks about paying up for quality The impact of passive investing and why active managers must take a long-term view Stories and lessons from Peter Lynch, including his enduring influence Timestamps: 0:00 If a stock has doubled, you haven’t missed it 1:00 Introduction and Joseph’s track record at TCW 2:00 Keys to long-term outperformance 8:00 Lessons from Warren Buffett’s wins and mistakes 11:30 Bill Miller’s influence and support for Rainwater Equity 14:00 What defines a high-quality business 20:00 Free cash flow compounding and moats 24:00 Red flags in management teams 31:00 Why active management is broken and Joseph’s solution 35:00 Portfolio concentration and risk management 42:00 Sectors to avoid and why 47:00 Joseph’s selling discipline 53:00 Exceptional leaders and the role of management quality 58:00 Valuation, future value, and the changing economy 1:04:00 Passive investing and market distortions 1:09:00 Lessons and stories from Peter Lynch 1:14:00 Closing questions and key investing lessons 1:20:00 Where to learn more about Joseph and Rainwater Equity

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today’s market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal. Topics covered: • Why the long game is undefeated • Short-term volatility and how to prepare for it • The myth of average returns • Asymmetric upside in markets and stocks • AI as both opportunity and risk • Earnings as the ultimate driver of stock prices • Why valuations don’t predict the next year • The role of uncertainty and hidden risks • Turnover and evolution within the stock market • Why the stock market isn’t the economy Timestamps: 00:00 Average returns are misleading 02:00 Introducing Sam Ro 02:15 Truth #1: The long game is undefeated 08:40 Truth #2: You can get smoked in the short term 14:20 Do markets have a government backstop? 18:00 Truth #3: The myth of average returns 23:00 Truth #4: Asymmetric upside 28:00 AI as macro and micro driver 33:00 Truth #5: Earnings drive stock prices 36:30 Truth #6: Valuations won’t tell you much about next year 51:40 Truth #7: There will always be something to worry about 55:20 Truth #8: The destabilizing risks are the ones people aren’t talking about 01:05:00 Truth #9: There’s a lot of turnover in markets 01:11:00 Truth #10: The stock market isn’t the economy 01:20:00 Closing thoughts

In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI’s productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade’s best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks through the risks she’s watching, why facts change faster than narratives, and practical ways to connect top-down insights with bottom-up research. Topics covered The Perpetual Growth Machine: why needs spark innovation and growth, and how investors can spot it early Why monopolies look great to investors but hurt long-term growth and innovation AI as a general purpose technology and the scale of potential productivity savings Housing affordability, incomes, and policy bottlenecks through the PGM lens How firms are actually adopting AI and how faster data changes research cadence Europe’s defense build-out and the rise of national champions and small-cap innovators Interpreting market concentration and what it signals about competition Inflation oscillation, policy mix, and why the Fed’s tools have limits Tariffs as a regressive tax and how costs pass through to consumers over time US exceptionalism narrowing and why ex-US markets may lead in the coming cycle The Draghi report and tearing down barriers inside the EU single market Comparing late-1990s tech to today’s AI build-out and who the next leaders may be Growth vs. value: focusing on sustained profit inflections, not cheapness alone Using stakeholder analysis to link macro themes to bottom-up stock work Biggest opportunities: Japan, Korea, Europe, select emerging markets, and parts of the Middle East Biggest risk: a breakdown in the global order amid US-China tensions Closing lessons: stay curious, stay nimble, question narratives, track the facts Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Olga’s role at William Blair 02:49 The Perpetual Growth Machine explained 06:24 Policy bottlenecks, incentives, and growth 09:32 AI as a general purpose technology and productivity math 11:53 Practical AI adoption inside investment firms 15:06 Where PGM points to opportunity right now 16:26 Europe’s defense spending and emerging winners 19:02 Macro setup and consumer health 20:42 Inflation today and what’s changed under the hood 22:46 The Fed’s dilemma and limits of monetary policy 25:00 Tariffs 101: who pays and how it shows up 28:55 Early evidence in goods prices 29:41 US exceptionalism vs. the rest of the world 31:00 The Draghi report and a real EU single market 33:11 Can Europe and others catch up in tech? 36:15 EU financial services barriers and capital deployment 37:07 Portfolio implications: why look ex-US 39:10 Late-1990s tech vs. today’s AI cycle 41:20 Concentration risk and competition policy 42:26 Value vs. growth through the PGM lens 44:48 Base rates, sustaining growth, and churn at the top 49:33 Marrying macro themes with bottom-up research 51:08 Firsthand observation vs. headline narratives 52:20 Biggest opportunities across regions 53:00 Middle East changes and new listings 54:48 Biggest risk: global order and US-China tensions 55:36 Parting advice for investors

Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold’s secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You’ll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim’s timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible. Topics Covered NDR’s 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”) How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked out Secular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turn Reading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could mean Concentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the world Where value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotations Gold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocation Practical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold “No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicators Using historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from them Tim’s core lesson: you can’t forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-driven Timestamps (YouTube Chapters) 00:00 Don’t fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context) 01:06 Intro and why NDR’s process beats single charts 02:58 NDR’s 360° framework and composite models 05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation 08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record 09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained 13:04 What counts as a secular bear (’66–’82, 2000–’09) 15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability 16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like 19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation 20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 2022 22:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 2022 24:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here 27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive 29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China’s role in EM 33:25 Gold’s standout year—drivers and positioning 36:16 Gold’s secular and cyclical bull case 37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio 40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals 47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 2025 49:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting 51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives 53:41 Why independence matters 53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson 59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he’s learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets. Topics Covered: Why the Fed is becoming more political and what that means for markets The “re-acceleration that wasn’t” and lessons from quickly abandoning trades How to structure trades like gold calls and TLT puts for asymmetric payoff FX as the “exhaust valve” for tariffs and global capital flows Canada’s housing bubble and CAD vulnerabilities Inflation targeting, bond vigilantes, and the Fed’s credibility Avoiding the trap of perma-bearishness and using stop-losses as forced humility The importance of imagination in regime changes and Fed forecast errors How Brent is using LLMs and AI to trade headlines, structure trades, and analyze patterns Trading bubble names with options and risk-aware structures Lessons on flexibility, humility, and embracing uncertainty in markets Timestamps: 00:00 – Fed independence and political pressure 02:00 – The failed “re-acceleration” thesis 06:00 – Structuring gold calls and TLT puts 14:00 – FX as the exhaust valve for tariffs 20:50 – Canada’s housing market and CAD risks 26:30 – The Fed as a political institution 32:40 – Inflation targeting and 3% as the new 2% 35:20 – Avoiding perma-bear bias and using stop-losses 42:00 – The Fed dinner story and the humility of wrong forecasts 46:30 – Using LLMs and AI in trading 53:00 – Shorting bubble names with call spreads 56:00 – Cheat sheets and pattern recognition with AI 59:30 – Lessons on flexibility and humility in trading 1:02:15 – Closing thoughts and where to follow Brent

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio strategies. Topics Covered Why fears of a looming debt crisis may be misplaced Inflation outlook, tariffs, and the Fed’s “soft landing” challenge The importance of Fed independence and risks of politicization Immigration, demographics, and long-term disinflationary trends How AI is reshaping productivity, inequality, and the job market Defined Duration Investing and asset-liability matching Lessons from all-weather strategies and the Permanent Portfolio Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” and future of global markets Timestamps 00:00 – Cullen on debt crisis fears 02:32 – State of the U.S. economy post-COVID 05:18 – Inflation, tariffs, and shelter costs 10:25 – Soft landing vs. rolling recessions 14:07 – The Fed’s role and impossible job 19:25 – National debt and Ray Dalio’s crisis warning 27:52 – AI boom and disinflationary forces 31:01 – Immigration, demographics, and inflation 37:23 – Aging population and wealth inequality 43:00 – How AI impacts productivity and jobs 52:00 – Defined Duration Investing explained 1:01:34 – Portfolio strategies: Permanent Portfolio & risk parity 1:03:54 – Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” 1:06:31 – Closing thoughts and future projects

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,healthcare’s role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how hissystematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive. ### Topics Covered * Eric’s unconventional career path: from Morgan Stanley andExxonMobil to founding 46Brooklyn and joining Band Creek * How personal experiences led him to tackle healthcaretransparency and drug pricing reform * The role of **information theory** in investing and thefoundation of Band Creek’s systematic process * Building powerful data visualizations to understand labormarkets, inflation, and structural economic changes * Why healthcare dominates recent U.S. job growth and therisks of overreliance on one sector * The impact of immigration on labor force growth andstructural inflation * Key drivers of inflation and how to interpret CPI and PCEdata * How Band Creek applies systematic endurance and the KellyCriterion to equity selection * Sector exposures and lessons learned from applyingdata-driven models internationally * Eric’s views on cognitive biases, why most investors can’treliably beat the market, and the power of data analysis

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cole Smead of Smead Capital for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, history, and the principles of value investing. Cole shares his perspectives on fiscal largesse, inflation, passive flows, energy markets, U.S. exceptionalism, and the timeless lessons of Buffett and Munger. His insights bridge economic history with today’s market realities, giving investors a framework to think about risk, capital allocation, and opportunity costs. Deficits, monetary policy, and why recessions are hard to find today Inflation dynamics and lessons from the 1960s and 1970s The U.S. government’s role in markets (Intel stake, big government policies) American exceptionalism vs. global capital allocation improvements Earnings quality and the divergence between accounting and economic profits Passive investing flows, weak competition, and investor behavior Energy investing: from fracking bust to efficiency and capital discipline Comparing the AI boom with past manias and capital cycles Smead Capital’s investment process and evaluating “wonderful companies” Buffett, Munger, and the lessons of asset-light vs. capital-intensive businesses Closing insights: why returns on capital matter more than EPS or revenue 00:00 – Opening quote and fiscal deficits 02:00 – Debt, inflation, and recession risks 08:50 – Government stake in Intel & big government era 12:15 – U.S. exceptionalism and arrogance 17:30 – Earnings quality erosion in U.S. businesses 24:00 – Passive flows and human behavior 27:30 – Opportunities in energy investing 34:00 – Energy buildout vs. AI boom 38:00 – Smead Capital’s investment process 44:00 – Lessons from Buffett and Munger 51:00 – Standard closing question

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Schutte, CIO of Northwestern Mutual, to discuss the current macro landscape and what it means for investors. Brent shares his balanced perspective on the Fed, inflation, tariffs, concentration risk in markets, and why diversification may be more important now than ever. With over 30 years of investing experience, Brent provides valuable lessons from past cycles that help put today’s environment in context. The Fed’s dual mandate and why both inflation and unemployment risks matter How tariffs could reshape growth and inflation dynamics Market concentration and the dominance of the Magnificent Seven Lessons from past cycles (1999 tech bubble, 2007 commodities, Japan in the 1980s) The role of diversification, including small/mid caps, international equities, and commodities Active vs. passive investing and how to evaluate managers Recession signals, rolling recessions, and hidden economic weakness Why humility and balance are essential in portfolio construction 00:00 – Introduction & importance of diversification 02:00 – The Fed’s mandate and tariffs’ impact on growth & inflation 07:30 – Reaction to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech & Fed independence 15:20 – Hidden recession, labor market signals & AI’s economic role 20:30 – Reliability of recession indicators post-COVID 26:00 – Tariffs, uncertainty & risks for investors 28:40 – Market concentration and the Magnificent Seven 34:00 – Rethinking diversification: 60/40, commodities, and international exposure 41:20 – Lessons from past market cycles (Japan, dot-com, China, commodities) 45:15 – Passive flows, active management, and evaluating skill vs. luck 50:00 – Government stakes in companies (Intel discussion) 52:00 – Standard closing questions & final lessons

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle of Liquid Strategies to explore the rapidly growing world of option-based ETF strategies. With the rise of covered calls, buffered products, and hedged equity funds, it’s more important than ever for investors to separate smart solutions from risky marketing gimmicks. Shawn and Eric break down how their firm approaches overlays, income generation, and downside protection in a way that helps advisors and investors achieve better long-term outcomes. The evolution of options in ETFs and why adoption has accelerated Common flaws in covered call strategies and the risks investors miss How Liquid Strategies uses option overlays to add return, income, and downside protection The “Swiss Army knife” approach to using put spreads for multiple portfolio goals The importance of timeframe in option strategies and the debate around 0DTE Why “high yield” products often just return investor capital Using options for true risk management and hedging vs. cosmetic protection How Liquid Strategies structures its ETF suite and interval funds Where hedged equity and bond overlays can serve as ballast in portfolios Standard closing lessons for investors on staying invested and balancing risk 00:01 – Introduction to Liquid Strategies and option-based ETFs 02:34 – The rise of options in portfolios and industry evolution 05:29 – Flaws in common options strategies 08:19 – Covered calls: why they often disappoint 12:00 – Balancing upside, downside, and income in overlays 15:31 – What overlay strategies really mean 20:19 – The “Swiss Army knife” of selling put spreads 24:09 – Why timeframe matters and 0DTE options debate 28:56 – How rates and volatility impact option overlays 32:59 – The importance of systematic but flexible processes 36:46 – High yield traps and returning investor capital 43:04 – Using options for hedging and risk management 46:47 – How advisors incorporate overlays into portfolios 48:54 – ETFs vs. interval funds explained 54:26 – Where overlays fit in today’s asset allocation 57:55 – Closing lessons for investors

In this episode, Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives joins us to break down the state of the economy, the Fed’s policy stance, inflation risks, and what’s really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall. Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish data How fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growth Why corporate profits outside the S&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strength The Fed’s inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shifts Jim’s case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectations Historical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they’ve been missing Divergence between S&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the market Structural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earnings The opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policy What Jim will be watching heading into year-end 00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed’s inflation stance24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)41:00 – Trendline analysis: S&P vs. broader market47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S&P 500 divergence52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Philbrick of Resolve Asset Management to discuss why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, the role of “psychological commodities” like gold and Bitcoin, and how return stacking can change the way investors think about diversification. Mike shares insights on macro regimes, investor psychology, and why these once-fringe assets may now be foundational in building resilient portfolios. Topics Covered: Why the 1982–2020 period was a “golden era” for stocks and bonds How today’s macro regime challenges traditional diversification The case for gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiers Debt, inflation, and the shifting role of scarce assets Why lack of cash flows is a feature, not a bug, for gold & Bitcoin Generational differences in crypto adoption and advisor psychology How return stacking works and why it matters for investors The evolving regulatory and institutional landscape for Bitcoin Risks: existential threats, quantum computing, policy changes Tokenization, blockchain innovation, and the future of finance Mike’s one lesson for the average investor Timestamps: 00:00 – Why the 1982–2020 period was a golden era 03:00 – Stocks, bonds, and changing correlations 07:00 – Debt, inflation, and the macro backdrop 10:00 – Gold, Bitcoin, and the cash flow debate 14:20 – Why investors resist gold & Bitcoin 19:00 – Generational divides and adoption rates 23:00 – The evolution of gold and parallels to Bitcoin 26:30 – What is Bitcoin? Digital gold vs growth asset 28:30 – Career risk flipping: from owning to not owning 32:00 – Behavioral biases and implementation frictions 35:00 – Sizing matters: avoiding “all or nothing” mistakes 36:00 – Market-cap weights and neutral allocations 38:00 – Long-term real returns of gold & Bitcoin 40:00 – Will Bitcoin and gold compete or complement? 43:00 – Portfolio construction: risk-weighting gold & Bitcoin 44:00 – Return stacking explained 49:00 – Trend following and dead money periods 51:00 – Risks: quantum computing, regulation, behavior 56:00 – Tokenization, blockchain rails, and innovation 1:01:13 – Mike’s one lesson for the average investor

Defined outcome ETFs have exploded in popularity, offering investors a way to combine downside protection with upside participation. In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jeff Chang of Vest Financial to break down the mechanics of buffer ETFs, how they fit into portfolios, the critiques they face, and where this space is headed. Jeff shares the origin story of Vest, the innovations that made these strategies accessible and how Buffer ETFs work behind the scenes. The origin of Vest and the impact of the Lehman collapse on product design How buffer ETFs work and why they focus on the “first 10–15%” of drawdowns The behavioral finance angle: making hedging simple and accessible Why 2022 highlighted the weaknesses of traditional 60/40 portfolios The mechanics of buffer ETFs: options structures and resets Popular buffer levels and how investors are using them Addressing critiques: costs, beta instability, and comparisons to cash or commodities The scalability of these strategies and potential market impact Behavioral vs. quantitative advantages of defined outcome funds Future developments, including applications to crypto and higher-volatility assets Jeff’s lessons on investing, risk management, and staying invested 00:00 – Introduction and the growth of defined outcome strategies 02:00 – The genesis of Vest Financial after Lehman’s collapse 09:00 – Explaining buffer ETFs in simple terms 14:00 – Who uses these strategies and why 2022 was a turning point 18:00 – Mechanics of resets and protection at market highs 22:00 – Range of buffers, caps, and investor demand 27:00 – The options structures behind buffer ETFs 30:00 – Liquidity, scalability, and market impact considerations 34:00 – How investors are using buffers in portfolios 38:00 – Tax efficiency inside the ETF wrapper 39:00 – Addressing critiques: cash, commodities, and costs 47:00 – Are these strategies more behavioral or quantitative? 48:30 – The future of buffer strategies and expansion into crypto 53:00 – Jeff’s contrarian investing belief 54:00 – The one lesson Jeff would teach every investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Tobias Carlisle — author, host of Value After Hours, and manager of the Acquirers Funds. Toby shares his candid perspective on market valuations, value investing’s long struggle, and why he still believes mean reversion will eventually swing back in favor of small caps and value stocks. We also dive into AI, global markets, the Fed, housing, and where investors might find opportunity outside today’s expensive U.S. mega-caps. Market valuations: why today’s market may be more expensive than 1929, 2000, or 2020 The pitfalls of relying on single-year P/E ratios and better long-term valuation measures The divergence between the “Magnificent 10” and the rest of the market Small caps, mid caps, and value: where Toby sees opportunity despite an earnings recession AI as both a transformative force and a potential bubble-like capital cycle U.S. vs. international markets: structural advantages of American capitalism and where China is catching up The Fed, interest rates, inflation, and how they really matter for value investors Housing affordability and demographics as headwinds for the U.S. economy Why Toby believes the “value vs. growth jaws” will eventually close 00:00 – Are markets more expensive than 1929 and 2000? 04:00 – Breaking down valuation charts: S&P, Russell, and mid/small caps 10:00 – Why single-year P/Es mislead investors 14:00 – Lessons from past bubbles: Nifty 50, dot-com era, and now 19:00 – Large vs. small: the longest run for growth in history 24:00 – AI’s impact: transformative technology or capital cycle trap? 32:00 – Toby’s personal experience with AI (and why it disappoints him so far) 33:00 – U.S. advantages vs. international markets and China’s rise 41:00 – Are today’s U.S. valuations justified? 45:00 – The Fed, interest rates, and speculation 46:00 – Housing affordability and demographics as headwinds 55:00 – Should value investors care about macro? 59:00 – Closing question: Toby’s contrarian belief on value vs. growth

In this episode, we sit down with Leigh Drogen of StarKiller Capital, alongside guest co-host Kai Wu, for a deep dive into crypto investing strategies, momentum in digital assets, and market-neutral DeFi yield opportunities. Leigh shares his perspective on where we are in the crypto evolution, the parallels with past technology cycles, and how to survive and advance in one of the most volatile asset classes in the world. From time-series and cross-sectional momentum to the economics of yield farming, this is a comprehensive look at building systematic strategies in digital assets. Topics Covered: The parallels between Web1 → Web2 and today’s crypto transition Why the “fat protocol” thesis is giving way to the “fat app” era The role of Bitcoin vs. Ethereum in the next stage of crypto adoption The “survive and advance” investing philosophy Time-series momentum and cross-sectional momentum in crypto How VC behavior is changing momentum dynamics Sector-level momentum and narrowing lookback periods StarKiller’s approach to asset selection and quality screens Building a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy Bootstrapping network effects and early liquidity provisioning Diligence, counterparty risk, and managing protocol risk The competitive landscape and where the biggest edges remain in crypto Timestamps: 00:00 – Crypto’s infrastructure milestones and evolution 02:53 – The “fat protocol” vs. “fat app” thesis 08:09 – Bitcoin’s role vs. Ethereum’s potential 14:20 – “Survive and advance” and limiting drawdowns 19:20 – Time-series vs. cross-sectional momentum 23:00 – VC selling behavior and regime change in momentum 31:47 – Sector-level momentum trends 36:13 – Shorter lookback periods and market speed 39:56 – StarKiller’s investable universe and filtering process 48:00 – Designing a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy 52:56 – Rewards farming and bootstrapping network effects 58:00 – Market-making vaults and APR opportunities 01:00:10 – Managing counterparty and protocol risk 01:04:02 – Has crypto alpha become more competitive? 01:07:41 – One lesson for the average investor

How Aswath Damodaran Manages His Own Portfolio | Show Us Your Portfolio In this episode of our Show Us Your Portfolio series, we go inside the personal investing approach of Aswath Damodaran — the “Dean of Valuation.” Known for his expertise in corporate valuation, Aswath rarely discusses how he manages his own money. We cover his philosophy, asset allocation, position sizing rules, lifecycle diversification, and the lessons he’s learned from decades of investing his own wealth. What you’ll learn in this episode: The core mission that drives Aswath’s investing decisions How he thinks about risk, concentration, and position sizing Why he avoids bonds and focuses on equity appreciation His approach to strategic vs. tactical investing The role of lifecycle diversification in portfolio construction How he decides when to buy and sell individual stocks Why luck plays such a big role in investing results His views on international exposure, dividends, gold, crypto, and alternative assets Personal spending habits and what he values most outside of investing Timestamps: 00:00 – Investing’s end game: preserve and grow wealth 03:25 – How life stage changes investment approach 07:41 – Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio 08:47 – Why he holds no bonds 10:12 – The power of compounding 12:25 – Separating portfolio from income needs 15:02 – Strategic vs. tactical investing 18:00 – Managing concentration risk and trimming winners 20:30 – Market concentration & the Mag 7 25:31 – How he buys and sells stocks 32:46 – Hit rate and lessons from decades of investing 37:26 – Lifecycle diversification 41:00 – U.S. vs. international investing 43:22 – Dividend investing 45:35 – Gold, crypto, and alternative assets 53:15 – What he drives and his ESG take 54:39 – Spending for joy 56:00 – Key investing advice for individuals 57:37 – Life outside markets & creative thinking time

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Nick Maggiulli — author of Just Keep Buying and his new book The Wealth Ladder. Nick shares his six-level framework for building wealth, why mobility between wealth levels is rarer than most people think, and how your financial strategy should evolve as your net worth grows. From grocery freedom to travel freedom, and from the risks of ego to the realities of taxes and investing at different stages, this conversation offers a practical guide to managing and growing wealth at any level. Topics Covered: The six levels of wealth and how to move between them “Grocery freedom,” “restaurant freedom,” and “travel freedom” Why moving down wealth levels is rare — and why moving up is harder than you think Strategies for Level 2: the role of education and income growth Strategies for Level 3: shifting focus to investing and compounding The importance of diversification, taxes, and risk management at higher levels How ego can derail wealth preservation Behavioral shifts needed when your portfolio outpaces your income The impact of interest rates, taxes, and spending habits on mobility Planning for unknown future liabilities Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction to The Wealth Ladder framework 01:40 – Grocery freedom, restaurant freedom, and travel freedom 05:26 – Why moving down wealth levels is rare 09:20 – Strategies for moving from Level 2 to Level 3 15:35 – Shifting from income growth to investing focus 24:24 – Diversification and risk management in Level 4 33:20 – Ego as the most expensive thing some people own 39:15 – Interest rates, taxes, and spending across levels 46:00 – Planning for unknown future liabilities 50:45 – Wealth mobility across generations

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore one of the most important and overlooked aspects of Warren Buffett’s investing evolution: his shift from tangible to intangible value. Based on Kai’s research paper “Buffett’s Intangible Moats,” we examine how Buffett's portfolio has evolved alongside the economy — and why the intangible drivers of brand equity, intellectual property, human capital, and network effects are central to understanding his success. Kai also shares how quantitative methods can be used to replicate Buffett’s approach and what this means for investors today. Topics Covered: The three eras of Buffett’s portfolio evolution: industrial, consumer, and information age Why Buffett’s shift away from deep value investing began earlier than most realize How Charlie Munger helped change Buffett’s approach — and why that mattered Buffett’s preference for intangible assets like brand, IP, and network effects How to quantify intangible value and its four key components Surprising stats: Buffett rarely buys below book value and holds high price-to-book stocks Kai’s framework for building an intangible value score across stocks Factor attribution: quality and intangible value explain most of Buffett’s alpha The impact of portfolio size, sector biases, and evolution of circle of competence How to replicate Buffett’s approach using a systematic, factor-based strategy Why intangible value may be the "quality of tomorrow" and a forward-looking moat Timestamps: 00:00 – Buffett’s evolution from value to intangible investor 01:55 – Why Kai researched Buffett’s investing style now 04:00 – The three eras of Buffett: Geico, Coca-Cola, Apple 08:15 – How Buffett’s thinking changed under Munger’s influence 10:00 – The rise of intangible moats and Buffett’s definition of economic goodwill 13:10 – Four components of intangible value 15:10 – Mapping Buffett’s holdings to intangible assets over time 17:30 – Does Buffett get enough credit for evolving? 20:30 – Only 8% of his holdings were bought below book value 24:00 – Average price-to-book of Buffett's portfolio is 8 26:00 – Defining Kai’s intangible value factor 27:50 – Buffett becomes a value investor again — just using a different metric 30:00 – Circle of competence vs. expanding opportunity set 33:00 – Today’s portfolio is 75% intangible by Kai’s framework 34:45 – Decomposing Buffett’s returns into factors 38:00 – Quality and intangible value explain 90% of Buffett’s alpha 43:15 – Sector exposure vs. true value tilt 49:00 – Intangible value as a leading indicator of quality 52:00 – Building a Buffett-style quant portfolio using two key factors 54:00 – Why Buffett’s future returns may be more muted

📈 In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA and author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street. We explore Sam’s timeless, data-driven investing rules and connect them to today’s market environment—including sector trends, interest rates, Fed policy, investor behavior, and why market history is one of the most underrated tools for navigating uncertainty. This conversation blends historical perspective with practical insights, making it essential viewing for long-term investors and students of market behavior alike. 🔍 Topics Covered: The power of rules-based investing and emotional discipline Why momentum often beats mean reversion in sectors The predictive value of January market performance How AI hype is shaping today’s market narrative Whether “Sell in May” still works—and what to do instead The case for value investing and high-quality dividend stocks A simple two-sector portfolio that beat tech (with less risk) Whether the 60/40 portfolio is still viable The failure of equal weight and small caps to outperform recently How to manage fear and stay invested during volatile markets What history teaches about Fed rate cuts and market returns A momentum strategy for finding “bull markets somewhere” Sam’s top lesson for the average investor ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Market performance after strong Januaries 02:00 – Let your winners ride, cut losers short 04:45 – Current sector winners and market concentration 06:30 – As goes January, so goes the year 09:00 – Why Year 3 of bull markets tends to be weak 11:00 – How AI fits into today’s bull case 12:30 – Sell in May—but rotate instead of retreat 14:30 – Why value investing has struggled 16:00 – Tech as the new consumer staple? 17:45 – A free lunch: Tech + staples portfolio 20:30 – The 60/40 portfolio and inflation hedging 22:20 – Don’t get mad, get even (equal weight vs. cap weight) 24:00 – Managing emotions and using history as Valium 26:20 – Don’t fight the Fed: Rate cuts and market returns 28:30 – CFRA’s Fed outlook for the second half 29:40 – There’s always a bull market somewhere 31:20 – Sam’s #1 lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Grant Williams for a wide-ranging conversation on what he calls the “Hundred Year Pivot.” Grant shares his view that we are living through a once-in-a-century inflection point — a deep, structural shift that is reshaping markets, institutions, societal values, and even individual behavior. This isn’t about predicting the next trade; it’s about understanding the tectonic changes happening beneath the surface and how investors can adapt, survive, and eventually thrive. 🔍 Topics covered in this episode: What the “Hundred Year Pivot” really means Why trust is the foundation of everything — and why it’s cracking The loss of long-standing institutions and belief systems How the freezing of Russian assets triggered a global monetary rethink Why central banks are buying gold like never before Why “buy the dip” might be a dangerous relic of a past era The return of capital preservation as a core investing principle How community, religion, and localism are resurfacing The psychology of luck, risk, and staying rich What gives Grant hope, despite the darkness of this turning ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – The hundred-year pivot and deep structural change 04:00 – Financial nihilism and the breakdown of institutional trust 11:00 – The freezing of Russian assets and its global implications 14:00 – Central banks, gold, and the unraveling of the dollar system 23:00 – From 40 years of tailwinds to a harder investing environment 27:00 – Why “buy the dip” is getting more dangerous 33:00 – Capital preservation vs. capital accumulation 40:00 – Societal change, community assets, and the new investment mindset 54:00 – Grant’s reason for optimism

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and special guest host Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital are joined by Verdad’s Dan Rasmussen for a deep dive into the hidden risks lurking in private equity—and why they may be more dangerous than investors realize. Rasmussen, a long-time critic of the asset class, explains why the allure of illiquidity, stale pricing, and past outperformance has led to dangerous capital misallocations. Along the way, we explore the origins of the Yale model, the current liquidity crunch, volatility laundering, and whether small-cap value could be the better bet today. We also dig into bubbles, biotech, and whether AI will concentrate or diffuse economic power. 🔑 Topics covered: Why private equity may not be what investors think it is The original logic of the Yale model—and how it’s broken today Leverage, small company risk, and the illusion of low volatility How private equity portfolios are “money traps” in disguise Small-cap value as public market private equity Why biotech could be the next overlooked opportunity How innovation bubbles spark long-term progress AI’s capital intensity and implications for Big Tech dominance Behavioral risks in institutional vs. retail investing 📍 Timestamps:00:00 – Why private equity could be a money trap03:00 – The over-allocation to small, low-margin, highly levered companies07:25 – Why private equity’s popularity may signal poor future returns14:30 – The Yale Model’s origin story and how it morphed19:25 – Collapse in private equity distributions23:34 – Volatility laundering and misleading risk metrics27:00 – What happens when private equity goes public31:00 – Do lockups help investor behavior—or prevent learning?35:10 – Could small-cap value be a better alternative to private equity?42:00 – Why biotech is the most beaten-up corner of small caps47:00 – Bubbles, innovation, and the role of speculative excess51:00 – AI, capital intensity, and a return to economic gravity54:00 – Will AI empower monopolies or smaller players?

Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he’s helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter. 🔍 In This Episode: The Fourth Turning’s impact on markets and society Why inflation, income inequality, and geopolitical turmoil are converging How Darius's market regime model (Dr. Mo) systematically adapts to risk What the “KISS” model portfolio is—and how it outperforms 60/40 Why recession models failed and how Darius sees the economy now The overlooked growth shock from policy—not just tariffs How AI may shift the economic power structure even more dramatically Why he believes the long-term outlook is structurally bullish (despite the chaos) ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Opening macro warning and Fourth Turning setup 02:44 – Darius on working with Neil Howe and implications of generational shifts 04:13 – How the Fourth Turning creates fiscal dominance and financial repression 08:21 – Explaining the market regime system and Dr. Mo 14:33 – What institutions get wrong and how volatility front-runs momentum 17:13 – The origin of 42 Macro and mission to democratize institutional-grade tools 18:35 – Case study: When the model turned bullish in April 21:23 – Why tariffs don’t derail the model 23:41 – Why recession signals failed & how Dale reads the cycle differently 30:13 – Why Dale is still pounding the table on U.S. resilience 35:11 – Paradigm A → B → C: the evolution of economic policy under pressure 43:49 – Will AI fuel an i-shaped economy? Or something better? 50:28 – Inside the “KISS” model portfolio and its 25% average annual return 🔗 Learn more at 42macro.com 📊 Follow Darius Dale on X: @42macroDDale

In this episode of Excess Returns, Mike Green returns to dissect the structural transformation underway in public markets due to the rise of passive investing. He explains why “there’s no such thing as a passive investor,” how inelastic flows distort prices, and what it means for valuation, volatility, and the long-term sustainability of equity markets. From the math behind market multipliers to the policy distortions driving mega-cap dominance, Mike walks through the macro, micro, and behavioral implications of passive flows — and what investors and policymakers need to do about it. 🔍 Topics Covered: Why passive investing isn’t truly passive The origins and impact of the inelastic market hypothesis How passive flows distort price discovery The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion in markets Multipliers and the mechanics of how flows drive prices Why market efficiency is breaking down at scale The hidden risks of passive-dominant market structure Target date funds and their unintended consequences The fragility of valuations under passive dominance The problem with IPO scarcity and capital misallocation Options strategies for convex tails and market drift Why the Fed and regulators may act — and what could trigger it Bitcoin and private markets as new flow-driven regimes How policy and tax advantages have reshaped capitalism ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – "There’s no such thing as a passive investor" 01:05 – The origins of Mike’s work on passive flows 03:00 – Bill Sharpe vs. Lasse Pedersen on passive flaws 06:00 – Index rebalancing and the illusion of passivity 07:00 – The rise of flow-based (demand-side) asset pricing 10:00 – Why EMH broke down under scale 12:00 – The human layer markets forgot 14:30 – The math behind price multipliers (5x to 25x) 17:00 – Market efficiency vs. market distortion 20:00 – Meta, index drift, and fake efficiency 23:00 – What individual investors should do 25:00 – The Mag 7 and extreme multiplier effects 27:00 – Options and convex tail risk management 29:00 – Mike’s 2016 survey on marginal buying behavior 31:00 – The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion 33:30 – When the music stops: wealth-to-income dynamics 35:00 – Theoretical crash under net withdrawals 36:00 – Why the boomer selloff thesis is flawed 39:00 – The overlooked risk: wealthy investors exiting actives 41:00 – Public vs. private equity concentration 43:00 – Why policy response is likely (and how it may look) 46:00 – Political power vs. market dominance 49:00 – Bitcoin, passive ETFs, and flow-driven pricing 52:00 – Private equity in 401(k)s — implications and risks 57:00 – The unintended outcomes of inflated valuations 59:00 – The hollowing out of the public equity bid 1:01:00 – How Vanguard’s 2015 rebalancing moved the market 1:04:00 – Valuation opacity and future withdrawals 1:07:00 – What Mike is working on now and next steps

Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999 Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc Subscribe on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The Jim Paulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that define today's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for why the private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may not be on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despite record index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, the underappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, and the risks posed by policy uncertainty. Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, or just trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts, and contrarian insight.

📉 What the Market Is Getting Wrong | Liz Ann Sonders on Debt, Tariffs, and the Fed In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for an in-depth conversation about what's really driving markets right now. Drawing on her latest research and commentary, we dig into retail trading dynamics, the implications of rising tariffs, the debt burden, inflation pressures, market concentration, and why the Fed might be holding the line. Liz Ann delivers clear, actionable insights—cutting through the noise and helping investors understand what matters most in today’s unstable environment. 📌 Topics Covered: Why high debt levels suppress long-term economic growth and productivity The retail trader “fingerprint” on recent market moves How sentiment extremes created a powerful reversal in April The rising risks around tariffs—and why markets may be complacent What companies are doing about margin pressure vs. passing on inflation The Fed’s “timeout” posture and why the market may be misreading it Liz Ann’s view on Powell’s potential ouster and Fed independence The disconnect between contribution to index returns vs. performance (Mag 7) Broadening market leadership and the role of quality stocks Why utilities and industrials are surprising AI beneficiaries How inflation is shifting from disinflationary to secularly higher The overlooked economic effects of immigration policy What the labor market is hiding beneath the headline numbers Why year-end price targets are a “dumb exercise” for individual investors ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Opening clip: debt, growth, inflation & the Fed 01:00 – Welcome and introduction 02:00 – Retail trader impact on market rally since April 05:25 – Sentiment washout and pain trade dynamics 08:00 – Policy instability and tariff complacency 12:00 – What investors can do in the face of uncertainty 14:50 – Budget deficits, debt burden, and growth implications 18:00 – Inflationary risks embedded in the new spending bill 20:30 – Dissecting inflation: tariffs, goods vs. services, and inequality 23:45 – Inflation vs. margins: where the impact shows first 26:00 – Instability vs. uncertainty: the new investor reality 30:30 – Labor market risks and misleading employment metrics 35:00 – Immigration's hidden macroeconomic effects 38:00 – Fed independence, Powell’s job security, and mispriced rate expectations 42:00 – Why the Fed may not cut—and why that’s bullish 44:20 – Mag 7 myth: contribution vs. true performance 48:00 – Broadening the rally: high-quality vs. low-quality stocks 50:30 – AI's second-order effects and sector-level surprises 55:00 – Liz Ann’s contrarian take: why year-end targets are pointless

Policy uncertainty is rising—but markets seem unfazed. In this episode, we sit down with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, to explore the critical policy risks that investors may be underestimating or ignoring altogether. From the real-world implications of the tariffs to questions around Fed independence, fiscal stimulus, and housing market interventions, Libby provides an insider’s perspective on what’s happening in Washington—and why it matters more than the market suggests. She also discusses how policy risk differs from macroeconomic risk, how investors often price the wrong factors, and why the next shock may not come from where most expect. Topics covered include: Why policy risk remains underappreciated by markets The lasting impact of tariffs—and how they could evolve The Big, Beautiful Tax Bill: What’s real, what’s hype Risks to Fed independence and central bank credibility GSE reform and the political tightrope in housing The intersection of fiscal policy and market complacency Whether you're focused on macro trends, portfolio positioning, or simply trying to understand what Washington might throw at markets next, this is a conversation you don’t want to miss.

Why didn’t the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today’s economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now. We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you’ve been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking. Topics discussed include: Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycle The real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panic How the Fed’s rate hikes lost their bite What’s changed in the economy’s sensitivity to rates Prometheus’ approach to stress testing and forecasting How Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategy The behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts

Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today’s volatility. We discuss: What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matter How options flows move billions without a fundamental trigger The role of gamma, vanna, and charm in stock price action Why expiration cycles often mark major market turning points Real-world examples: GameStop, Tesla, Nvidia, and the S&P 500 What traditional investors miss by ignoring these dynamics Even if you’ve never traded an option, this episode will change how you see the market.

In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm’s 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets. Paolini also shares his views on inflation, tariffs, AI, private markets, and the challenges of navigating a low-return, high-risk world. Whether you're a global macro watcher or a long-term investor thinking about regime shifts, this conversation offers a roadmap for the next five years. Topics covered include: Why the U.S. may no longer deserve its valuation premium How debt and protectionism threaten global growth Why the next five years could see converging returns across regions and assets The investment case for bonds, credit, and emerging market debt AI’s impact on productivity and equity concentration The future role of gold, crypto, and private assets in portfolios

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation. 🔍 Topics Covered: The uncomfortable realities of trend following performance Why many investors misunderstand managed futures Eric’s view on the current drawdown and client behavior Setting expectations with empirical data and simulations The case for blending passive equities with trend following Capital formation vs. risk transfer markets explained What market participants get wrong about futures The surprising resilience of cap-weighted equity indexes The flaws in relying on bonds as diversifiers How regime shifts and correlation changes affect trend models Philosophical take on risk, regulation, and structural market design

Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken? In this episode, we’re joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He also explains the concept of “Freedom Day” — a reimagined approach to retirement that’s built on income, not asset totals. Whether you're a dividend investor, financial advisor, or retiree planning for long-term income, this conversation offers a fresh, practical framework you won’t hear elsewhere. We discuss: Why dividend growth beats high yield over time The flaws in the 4% withdrawal rule How yield-on-cost changes investor behavior Red flags hidden inside popular dividend ETFs How “Freedom Day” redefines retirement planning Ryan’s quant + discretionary investment process The underrated power of sell discipline Why “never add to losers” might boost your returns 📈 Learn more about Ryan’s work: https://freedomdaysolutions.com

In this episode, we’re joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what’s really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it. We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stickiness and record cancellations to zoning reform and climate-driven migration. Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or policy wonk, this conversation offers a comprehensive look at what’s next for real estate in America. Topics discussed include: The shift to a buyer’s market and why it matters The gap between seller expectations and buyer reality Regional pain points: Florida, Texas, and beyond Why insurance costs and HOAs are distorting markets Buyer psychology, affordability, and rent vs. own dynamics Tariffs, uncertainty, and interest rate volatility The policy fixes Daryl believes we need—fast Climate risk, migration, and Redfin’s flood data experiment Why your home shouldn't be your investment strategy Lessons from game theory and behavioral economics Guest Links:Daryl Fairweather’s book Hate the Game is available now on Amazon and Audible.Follow Daryl on X, LinkedIn, and Substack @FairweatherPhD

Robert Hagstrom returns to discuss the investing principle he believes most value investors still misunderstand—despite decades of evidence from Warren Buffett. In this conversation, we explore why focus investing works, what traditional value investors got wrong about the Magnificent Seven, and how the industry's obsession with low P/E ratios and short-term tracking error leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom also reflects on lessons from working with Bill Miller and explains why evolving your investment approach is essential for long-term success. In this episode, we discuss: How Hagstrom fell into money management by accident What Buffett’s 1983 letter taught him about investing The dangers of rigid value investing frameworks Why most active managers fail over time The key to compounding that investors overlook Drawdowns, tracking error, and the psychology of focus investing Why private equity’s appeal is mostly an illusion What Buffett’s surprise CEO handoff really means for Berkshire Hathaway

Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are Missing In this episode, we’re joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm’s 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now. We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are misreading the current market environment. Megan also shares how she’s thinking about portfolio positioning in a world where traditional recession indicators are breaking down and valuations remain elevated. Topics Discussed Include: Why consumer strength may be a mirage The risk of complacency around inflation Tariffs, trade imbalances, and global uncertainty The growing consequences of U.S. and global debt Why small/mid-caps and international stocks may offer better value Fixed income positioning in a “higher for longer” environment The case for active management over passive in today’s market Opportunities and risks in alternatives and private assets Lessons investors can learn from recent volatility If you're looking for a thoughtful macro perspective and practical ideas for navigating today's complex market landscape, this conversation is for you.

GMO’s Warren Chiang joins us for a deep dive into the art and science of systematic value investing. In this episode, Warren shares how his team has refined traditional value investing to adapt to an intangible-heavy world, the structural reasons deep value is historically cheap today, and how top-down insights from GMO’s asset allocation group are implemented in practice. We also explore how ESG, momentum, macro, and geopolitical shifts—including the China decoupling—are integrated into portfolio construction, and what investors can learn from GMO’s global perspective on valuations. Topics Covered: Why GMO didn’t abandon value—it improved it The difference between "value" and "valuation" How restating financial statements improves valuation accuracy GMO’s two-step top-down and bottom-up ETF strategy The deep value opportunity: why it’s never been cheaper How GMO incorporates quality in a forward-looking way Why momentum and macro are excluded from some strategies How ESG is treated as a portfolio risk—not virtue signaling The China supply chain shift and the Beyond China strategy Passive investing’s long-term impact on price discovery Managing risk, constraints, and position sizing in quant portfolios Whether today’s market mirrors the dot-com bubble What’s driving valuation gaps across global markets

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment, policy risk, and the future of globalization. 📌 Topics Covered: Why today’s political leaders are reshaping markets and capitalism How investors must rethink confidence, control, and certainty The "beneficiary vs. victim" framework for companies and countries Implications for capital allocation in a deglobalizing world Fragility of dominant leadership and geopolitical risk How social media and sentiment shape investor perception Where investors are most misaligned with current realities Confidence mapping for AI, private credit, Chinese equities, and more

David Giroux, CIO and Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, has achieved something rare in investing—beating his Morningstar peer group for 17 consecutive years. In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy, including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities, adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio. He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles, and why long-term thinking remains a powerful edge in today's short-term-obsessed market. We cover: Why most investors overlook high-quality GARP stocks—and how Giroux takes advantage How he navigates market cycles with 5-year IRR forecasts Why long-term thinking gives him a contrarian advantage The impact of AI on productivity, employment, and portfolio margins His quantitative and qualitative approach to evaluating companies What investors get wrong about financials, utilities, and passive investing The CEOs he admires most—and what makes them exceptional Why he thinks macro forecasts (including Fed-watching) offer little value

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for an insightful, opinionated, and often humorous discussion on global market dynamics, the Mag 7, structural portfolio shifts, and what it takes to be a successful generalist investor. From the “Chart of Truth” to the hidden value in tire stocks, Rupert brings decades of experience and a distinctive lens to markets, risk, and opportunity. 🔍 Topics Covered: Why European pension funds are rethinking U.S. equity exposure The “Chart of Truth” and its implications for global allocations The unexpected strength of retail investors in recent rallies Mag 7 dominance, Nvidia’s market impact, and AI euphoria Why Apple might be the ultimate funding short A deep dive into the “Bushy” portfolio and why 60/40 is broken How inflation volatility shapes asset choices and international diversification The case for owning Goodyear and Korean utilities The problem with adjusted EBITDA and financial storytelling How being a generalist can be a competitive investing edge

🎙️ Inside Causeway’s Quant Playbook | Joe Gubler on Factor Innovation, Risk, and Portfolio Design In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joe Gubler, Director of Quantitative Research at Causeway Capital. Joe shares a deep dive into Causeway’s distinctive approach to factor investing, blending traditional quant signals with fundamental insights, and building models that adapt to market context. From constructing proprietary sustainability alpha signals to using machine learning to refine quality definitions, Joe reveals a cutting-edge playbook for the future of quantitative investing. 📌 In This Episode, You'll Learn: Why Causeway doesn't treat its quant model as sacrosanct How to blend fundamental overlays with systematic strategies The logic behind composite factors and contextual weighting Unconventional factor signals like corporate events and peer-based momentum How machine learning enhances quality assessment How Causeway adapts factor models across regimes and markets What most quants miss when it comes to factor construction and interpretation The evolving role of AI and NLP in alpha generation Joe's views on passive flows and fundamental mispricings

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify opportunities in a complex macro environment. 📌 Topics Covered: The current technical setup: secular bull, cyclical bear How to interpret gaps, indicators, and moving averages Weakening market breadth and its implications Sector rotation: what’s working and what’s not The outlook for international vs. U.S. markets Sentiment extremes and the "fear & greed" indicators Technical setups in commodities: crude oil and gold Thoughts on Bitcoin, the dollar, and bond spreads How the TACK ETF applies technical signals in practice

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today’s economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today’s markets using Research Affiliates’ capital markets expectations. Full Paper:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1080-stimulus-does-not-stimulate 🎯 Topics Covered: Why stimulus doesn't always stimulate economic growth The hidden cost of high government spending Lessons from Japan, Ireland, and the EU on fiscal policy Why Keynes wouldn’t recognize today’s “Keynesianism” The role of stimulus during crises like COVID and 2008 Tariffs as strategy vs. economic drag Rob’s take on Trump, trade wars, and negotiating tactics Crowding out: What debt does to private investment Research Affiliates’ expected returns across major asset classes Why large-cap U.S. stocks may be the most overvalued The opportunity in value, small-cap, and international markets

In this episode of Teach Me Like I'm 5, options expert Kris Abdelmessih breaks down one of the most foundational—and misunderstood—concepts in options trading: put-call parity. Using Lego analogies, homemade spreadsheets, and Fast & Furious references, Kris shows how options are like building blocks you can combine to create any payoff you want—including replicating a stock itself. Whether you're a beginner trying to understand options basics or a seasoned investor looking for deeper insights into synthetic positions and implied interest rates, this episode is packed with practical lessons presented in the most approachable way possible. What We Cover: Why calls and puts are “the same” through the lens of put-call parity How to visualize and replicate stock payoffs using only options The concept of synthetic positions: synthetic stock, calls, and puts How put-call parity collapses complex strategies into basic building blocks The real mechanics behind covered calls—and what they really are How professional traders use options pricing to infer interest rates and stock borrowing conditions A deep dive into "box spreads" and how they replicate zero-coupon bonds

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most complex and pressing issues facing successful investors today: what to do with concentrated stock positions. Whether from employee stock compensation or a major investment win, holding too much of a single stock presents serious tax and diversification challenges. Our guests—Wes Gray of Alpha Architect, Sri Narayan of Cache Financial, and guest host Dave Nadig—break down the innovative solutions that are changing the game. From exchange funds to Section 351 conversions, this is a masterclass in modern wealth and risk management. Topics Covered: The problem with concentrated stock positions and why it’s getting worse How stock-based compensation fuels investor overexposure Why traditional exchange funds fall short—and how Cache is solving it Understanding Section 351 ETF conversions and tax-deferred diversification The mechanics behind Cache's NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 strategies How exchange funds work: structure, lockups, and liquidity Using ETFs to rebalance and solve diversification constraints Real estate allocations and the 20% illiquid asset requirement Costs, fees, and transparency of the modern exchange fund model Regulatory and legal perspectives behind the structure Practical advice for advisors and investors with low-basis positions How to access, evaluate, and engage with Cache and Alpha Architect solutions

What does it mean to come of age during chaos—and how does that shape the generations who must lead us through it? In this thought-provoking episode of Rabbit Hole, Dave Nadig speaks with Neil Howe—author of The Fourth Turning Is Here—about the evolving role of Gen X in today's world, the generational dynamics underpinning societal shifts, and what history teaches us about crisis, community, and rebirth. This is not just a theory session—it’s a practical guide to understanding where we are in the cycle and what might come next. Topics Covered: Why generational transitions are slowing—and why that matters The Gen X identity crisis: from latchkey kids to future elders How community rises from conflict during fourth turnings Millennials' collective investing mindset vs. Gen X contrarianism The historical role of financial repression and inflation in crises Parallels between Gen X and the Lost Generation How institutions are built—and who builds them Will the next societal reboot be state-driven or community-driven? Global synchronization of generational crises and what that implies What comes after the fourth turning—and how Gen X fits into it

In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to break down his latest research piece, Investing Amid Trade Wars. Using over two dozen insightful visuals, Kai explores how investors should think about global trade exposure in an era of rising tariffs, economic nationalism, and geopolitical uncertainty. He makes the case for staying invested in high-quality multinational companies—especially those rich in intangible assets—and offers four actionable ways to build more resilient global portfolios. Topics Covered: Why the market reaction to tariffs is both rational and potentially short-sighted The long-term outperformance of global vs. domestic firms How to define and measure global trade exposure at the company level Real-world trade shocks and what they reveal about investor behavior The four traits of resilient global firms Why intangible-heavy businesses are uniquely positioned to weather trade disruptions International vs. U.S. multinationals: hidden value in non-U.S. stocks Practical suggestions for portfolio construction in a deglobalizing world

In this episode, Kris Sidial joins Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba to break down the mechanics of tail risk hedging, why most volatility strategies fail, and how his team approaches dislocations in the market. We explore what's really driving volatility behind the scenes, the evolving market structure, and why the current environment may be far more precarious than it appears. If you’ve ever wondered how professional vol traders monetize chaos—or why volatility can stick around far longer than people expect—this episode is for you. Topics Covered: What tail risk funds are and why many of them underperform How to build a long volatility strategy that doesn’t bleed capital Why rebalancing is a critical component of portfolio resilience Liquidity fragility and how it amplifies market moves Retail's role in the latest rally and the fading institutional bid Structural risks created by passive flows and policy shifts Monetizing volatility spikes The psychological traps that lead to poor volatility trading decisions Why volatility might stay elevated for far longer than most expect

Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about, Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment. Topics Covered: Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us How margin compression could trigger job cuts The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack welcome Travis Prentice from Informed Momentum Company to discuss the ins and outs of momentum investing. Travis brings nearly three decades of momentum investing experience and shares valuable insights about momentum strategies, misconceptions, implementation challenges, and how momentum can be effectively combined with other factors. This conversation offers both beginning and experienced investors a comprehensive look at this powerful investment strategy. Topics Covered: What momentum investing is and how it differs from growth investing The mechanics of cross-sectional momentum and relative strength Common misconceptions about momentum strategies How fundamental data can enhance momentum strategies The significance of continuous vs. dynamic momentum Portfolio construction, sector concentration, and rebalancing approaches Momentum performance across different market caps and geographies The risk profile of momentum vs. value strategies Momentum crashes - what they are and how to mitigate them Tax efficiency of momentum strategies The impact of passive investing on momentum strategiesOptimal factor combinations for diversified portfolios

Join hosts Matt Ziegler and Jack Forehand as they interview Jared Dillian (@DailyDirtNap on Twitter) for a fascinating discussion on current market conditions, macroeconomic trends, and controversial investment perspectives. Jared shares his unique takes on everything from tariffs to portfolio construction, offering insights that often challenge conventional wisdom. Topics Covered: Jared's contrarian view that tariffs are deflationary rather than inflationaryThe potential long-term decline of the dollar despite possible short-term strengthHow financial wars have replaced hot and cold wars in global politicsThe future of US debt and potential parallels to past debt crisesJared's "Awesome Portfolio" strategy: 20% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% cash, 20% gold, 20% real estateWhy international stocks may continue to outperform US equitiesPossible recession indicators and economic headwindsFed policy predictions and why rates might not be cut as expectedThe value of sentiment indicators and Twitter as a market research toolWhy free trade benefits economies and the risks of protectionist policies

When we started Excess Returns, we wanted to come up with one way to boil down the best advice from the experts we have interviewed into one simple question. That led us to create a standard closing question that we ask all of our guests, “Based on your experience in the markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would that be?”. Over the history of the podcast, we have asked that question to close to 200 guests ranging from great investors to academic experts to options and macro traders. In this episode, we share the answers from our 50 most popular guests all in one episode. Featured guests include Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Guy Spier, Michael Mauboussin, Mike Green, Cem Karsan, Chris Davis, Aswath Damodaran, Jack Schwager, Rick Ferri and many others. Topics Covered:The fundamental purpose of investing: preserving and growing wealth rather than getting rich quick The importance of base rates in investment decisions Portfolio monitoring frequency and its impact on investment psychology Viewing stocks as ownership in actual businesses rather than trading vehicles The value of patience, humility, and self-forgiveness in the investment process Diversification across asset classes, strategies, and time frames The benefits of simplicity in investment approaches The psychological challenges of investing and how to overcome them Compounding as a fundamental wealth-building tool The danger of performance chasing and overconfidence The value of a rules-based investment process

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, who shares his extraordinary journey from Goldman Sachs trader to working directly with Bernie Madoff and ultimately becoming a victim of history's largest Ponzi scheme. Now a respected finance professor, Cohen offers unique insights into Wall Street's trading culture, the shock of Madoff's fraud, and how he rebuilt his life in academia after losing almost everything. Topics Covered: Andrew's early career at Goldman Sachs and how basketball gambling on the trading floor taught him market-making skills The trading operations and technology at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in the early 1990s Working dynamics with Bernie Madoff's sons, Mark and Andy, and office politics How Andrew was invited to invest in Madoff's "exclusive" fund Andrew's decision to leave Wall Street at the height of his success The devastating moment Andrew learned about Madoff's arrest and the Ponzi scheme The additional ordeal of facing clawback lawsuits after losing his investment Transitioning to academia and finding a more fulfilling career path Lessons for investors and finance students about risk, technology, and communication

Join hosts Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau as they sit down with Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his expert perspective on today's market challenges, including the unprecedented narrowness of recent markets, the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and why the current environment calls for a shift toward value investing and greater diversification. Drawing on decades of experience, Bernstein offers practical wisdom for navigating today's uncertain investment landscape. Topics Covered: The difference between the 2008 financial crisis and today's economic challengesWhy 2023-2024 saw the most narrow stock market since the Great DepressionThe potential impact of tariffs as "the biggest tax on consumers in our professional careers"Why investors should err on the side of value over growth in the current marketHow US debt levels impact interest rates and economic competitivenessThe role of the Federal Reserve as a lagging rather than leading indicatorWhy gold serves as an effective hedge against uncertaintyBernstein's skeptical view on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin valuationThe limitations of index funds in today's market environmentTimeless advice for wealth building: stick to fundamentals and avoid "get rich quick" thinking

In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent market environment. Jim brings his decades of experience to provide context, rational analysis, and long-term perspectives, steering clear of bold predictions and focusing instead on practical advice for navigating these uncertain times. Main Topics Covered: Jim’s perspective on market corrections and advice for investors during volatile periods, emphasizing emotional discipline and long-term thinking.The economic implications of tariffs, debunking the notion that they’re inflationary and exploring their contractionary effects.Critique of Federal Reserve policy, including their unprecedented actions and failure to ease despite market signals of deflation risk.Analysis of the U.S. dollar’s value and its impact on trade competitiveness, proposing a weaker dollar as an alternative to tariffs.The resilience of the private sector, bolstered by strong balance sheets and liquidity, as a buffer against recession fears.Thoughts on government debt, executive overreach, and Trump administration policies like deregulation and immigration.Investment strategies for the current environment.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by special co-host Bogumil Baranowski to sit down with Chris Mayer. As the author of the acclaimed book 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them, former editor of influential newsletters, and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, Chris brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective to the table. In this conversation, we dive deep into the world of long-term investing, exploring timeless principles, the impact of AI on future opportunities, and the mindset required to identify and hold onto extraordinary businesses. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode is packed with wisdom to help you navigate the markets with patience and purpose. Main Topics Covered: The potential for 100-bagger stocks in emerging industries like AI and how time reveals the winners. The "twin engines" of growth and multiples, and why great businesses often trade at high valuations. The merits and challenges of concentrated investing in a market dominated by giants like the "Mag Seven." Strategies for dealing with drawdowns and maintaining conviction in great companies through volatility. The importance of aligning investment strategies with the right type of capital, especially for family wealth. How experiences as a banker, newsletter editor, and board member shape a business-owner mindset. The role of boards in capital allocation and setting incentives that drive long-term value. Insights from general semantics as a tool for critical thinking and avoiding investment pitfalls. The power of journaling to track evolving thoughts and foster humility in investing. Why patience is the ultimate lesson for investors and how to tune out market noise.

In this episode, we are joined by Rick Ferri, a renowned advocate for low-cost, evidence-based investing. With the market in the midst of a significant selloff, it was a great time to get Rick’s practical wisdom on navigating market volatility, maintaining simplicity in investing, and making informed portfolio decisions amidst economic uncertainty. With his disciplined approach and decades of experience, Rick shares actionable advice for investors looking to stay the course through today’s challenges. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this discussion offers valuable perspectives to help you achieve long-term financial success. Main Topics Covered: Strategies for handling market uncertainty and avoiding rash decisions during volatile times. The benefits of simplicity in investing and why the industry pushes complexity. Debunking the myth of the "dead" 60/40 portfolio and tailoring asset allocation to individual needs. Practical tips for sticking to your asset allocation through market ups and downs. How inflation impacts portfolios and why personal inflation rates matter. The case for international diversification and its long-term benefits. Thoughts on economic policies like tariffs and their potential effects on markets. Direct indexing: who it’s for, who it’s not for, and how it’s often oversold. Why active management struggles to outperform, despite persistent marketing efforts. Evaluating alternative investments like private credit and their risks. Addressing the "age in bonds" rule of thumb and its relevance for different investors. Questions to ask financial advisors to ensure you’re getting value for your fees. Rick’s evolution as an investor and the four stages to simplicity. An overview of the Core Four portfolio and its alignment with economic realities. Approaches to rebalancing and when to let asset allocations glide. Rick’s unique view on separating advisor fees for advice and asset management.

In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy’s trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today’s volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don’t miss Andy’s unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing! Main Topics Covered: Andy’s “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.” The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant’s goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks. The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today’s market, and why they’re farther out of the money than many expect. The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations. Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization’s inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve’s current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they’re a poor choice for long-term investors. Andy’s contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cullen Roche, a renowned financial expert from Discipline Funds, as he breaks down some of the most pressing economic and market topics impacting investors today. Hosted by Justin and Jack, this episode of Excess Returns dives into a "fact and fiction" style discussion, where Cullen unpacks complex issues like Federal Reserve policies, tariffs, and the national debt with clarity and nuance. With his knack for simplifying the mechanics of markets and the economy, Cullen offers a fresh perspective on what’s really happening—and what it means for your financial future. Check out more about Cullen’s work at disciplinefunds.com. Main Topics Covered: The Fed and Soft Landing: Cullen evaluates whether the Federal Reserve has successfully managed inflation and engineered a soft landing, reframing the analogy as stabilizing an economy in flight rather than landing it.Tariffs and Inflation: A deep dive into Trump’s tariff policies, exploring their impact as a corporate tax, their potential to drive inflation, and whether they can bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.National Debt Concerns: Cullen shares his take on the U.S. national debt, downplaying immediate risks while acknowledging the long-term inflationary dangers of unchecked government spending creep.DOGE and Deficit Reduction: Thoughts on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), its potential to cut waste, and the challenges of moving the needle given the dominance of entitlements and defense spending.AI’s Economic Impact: How artificial intelligence might boost productivity, its limits in transforming retail demand, and whether it offsets tariff-related economic pressures.Bond vs. Stock Market Smarts: Cullen debunks the myth that the bond market is inherently smarter than the stock market, emphasizing both are efficient in their own right.Mortgage Rates and Housing: A look at whether we’ll see ultra-low mortgage rates (like 3%) again, driven by secular trends in technology and population growth.Crypto Reserve Fund: Cullen critiques the idea of a U.S. crypto reserve, arguing it diverts resources from productive economic investments.Leg Day Economics: A lighthearted yet serious take on why leg day matters—not just for fitness, but for longevity and stability.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective. Key topics discussed: • Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth • Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures • GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic • Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation • Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary • International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China

Buy Barry's Book https://amzn.to/3F7APZP In this initial episode of Rabbithole of our new show Rabbithole, Dave Nadig explores the psychology of money and investing with Barry Ritholtz, author of "How Not to Invest." Their conversation challenges conventional financial wisdom and reveals insights about what money is, and how we use and invest it. Key topics include: Why money is a tool for freedom and agency, not a store of value or end goal How childhood experiences shape our lifelong money behaviors and attitudes Why market crashes affect us differently at various life stages The dangers of algorithmic social media and information overload for investors Why avoiding mistakes is more important than chasing extraordinary returns Rethinking Bitcoin and other investments through better framing The wisdom of humility in financial decision-making Barry shares candid personal stories and draws on decades of experience as a trader, strategist, and wealth manager to identify the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that typically destroy wealth.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Matt welcome back investment strategist Mike Green for an in-depth conversation about the current state of markets, economic trends, and geopolitical developments.Mike shares his unique perspective on several key topics:Why traditional economic indicators like unemployment claims no longer accurately reflect economic reality due to the rise of the gig economy How the Fed's interest rate hikes have counterintuitively benefited wealthy individuals through increased interest income The strategic reasoning behind Trump administration policies, particularly regarding China, Russia, and global tradeAn analysis of market dynamics, including the mechanical nature of passive investing and its impact on price movements Insights on inflation measurement challenges and the role of seasonal adjustments in recent dataThe conversation also explores how current political and economic conditions mirror historical patterns, with Mike drawing thought-provoking parallels to past societal transformations. He explains why the S&P 500's strong performance masks weakness in other market segments and offers his perspective on what investors should consider in today's environment. Whether you're interested in markets, economics, or the intersection of politics and investing, this episode provides valuable insights from one of today's most original financial thinkers. SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can't be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes. Larry dives deep into the concept of "self-healing mechanisms" in markets, explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future returns. He uses fascinating examples from reinsurance to value stocks to illustrate this principle. The discussion also covers why "Sell in May and Go Away" is a dangerous myth, why active management continues to disappoint, and why proper diversification means always having some parts of your portfolio that aren't performing well. Larry also explains why investors keep making the same mistakes and how they can break free from common behavioral biases. The conversation includes practical insights on: Why even a perfect economic crystal ball wouldn't help you predict markets The dangers of judging investment strategies by their outcomes rather than their process Why patience and discipline are crucial for investment success How to think about diversification in a world dominated by large tech stocks Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode offers valuable perspectives on building resilient portfolios and avoiding common investment pitfalls. SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack sit down with Scott McBride, CEO and portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley, to explore the approach that has allowed them to succeed during a time when many other value investors have failed. McBride, with 24 years at the firm, shares insights into how their team has achieved impressive results by being willing to think differently from consensus. Key topics discussed: How market sentiment and emotion create opportunities for long-term investors The importance of having the right team culture and being comfortable with contrarian positions Their approach to valuing companies beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratiosWhy catalysts aren't necessary for investment success if you get valuation and governance right Their perspective on international markets, particularly opportunities in Europe and the UK Thoughts on AI's impact on businesses and investment analysis The growing influence of passive investing and how it creates opportunities McBride explains why having fewer analysts covering certain stocks can create opportunities, and why focusing on business quality, strong balance sheets, and good governance is crucial for long-term success. He also shares valuable insights about maintaining flexibility in investment approach rather than being dogmatic about any single strategy. Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this conversation offers practical wisdom about what works in value investing over the long term. SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACKTwitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTINTwitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Taylor, portfolio manager of Simplify's PINK healthcare ETF, for a fascinating discussion about how he mansges his personal portfolio. Drawing from his extensive experience at firms like Citadel and Millennium, Mike shares candid insights about what makes a successful investor and his portfolio construction process. Key topics include: Why having "skin in the game" matters when managing funds The critical elements he looks for in high-conviction investments His unique approach to international investing and macro trends Valuable lessons learned from working at top hedge funds His perspective on retirement and career longevity in finance Thoughts on demographic challenges facing global markets Mike brings both humor and deep expertise to this conversation, offering rare insights into how a veteran hedge fund manager thinks about markets, risk, and portfolio construction. Whether you're a professional investor or individual managing your own portfolio, this episode provides valuable perspectives on navigating today's complex market environment. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Welcome to Click Beta - where three market professionals cut through the financial clickbait to have real conversations about what matters. In this premiere episode, hosts Matt Zigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig dive into pressing topics like trade wars, tariffs, and their real-world impacts on small businesses and manufacturing. The conversation flows from corporate-subsidized jobs to cryptocurrency grifts, and wraps up with a fascinating discussion about the future of local economies and digital communities. Unlike typical financial content, Click Beta brings you unscripted, unfiltered perspectives from three different corners of the financial world - financial planning, fund management, and product strategy. Join us monthly as we analyze headlines, share insights, and figure out what really matters for investors and professionals alike.

Market Wizards author Jack Schwager returns for another fascinating conversation about trading psychology, risk management, and lessons learned from interviewing the world's top traders. In this wide-ranging discussion, Schwager shares stories from his early career as a market analyst in the 1970s, his transition to writing the influential Market Wizards series, and his personal journey understanding that his talents lay in analyzing and writing about trading rather than trading itself. Key highlights include: The origin story of how Schwager landed his first job and serendipitously replaced Michael Marcus Critical insights about the unchanging nature of human psychology in markets despite technological evolution Why risk management principles remain constant even as trading strategies evolve Fascinating stories about legendary traders like George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Ed Thorp The important distinction between volatility and true risk in markets A preview of Schwager's upcoming book project with co-author George Coyle Whether you're a veteran trader or new to markets, this conversation offers timeless wisdom about successful trading, the entrepreneurial mindset required to succeed, and the importance of understanding your own strengths and limitations. Watch for Jack's memorable explanation of Bruce Kovner's famous advice: "Know where you're getting out before you get in." SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss their fascinating interview with AQR founder Cliff Asness. They explore several key topics from their conversation, including: Cliff's humorous take on morning routines and why correlation doesn't equal causation when it comes to success habits The "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and why Cliff believes markets may be becoming less efficient over time, particularly evident in the dot-com bubble and 2019-2020 market events A thoughtful discussion on passive investing's impact on markets, including Cliff's perspective on what percentage of passive investing might be sustainable The importance of getting comfortable with investment discomfort, especially when following factor strategies that can experience long periods of underperformance An insightful discussion about the evolution of factor investing and whether factors need intuitive explanations to be valid Cliff's key advice for average investors: look at your portfolio as little as possible to avoid making emotional decisions The episode showcases Cliff's unique ability to combine deep quantitative insights with humor and practical wisdom, making complex investment concepts accessible and entertaining. Don't miss this conversation with one of the most influential figures in quantitative investing.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Perth Tolle sit down with Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of fundamental indexing. Rob discusses his thought-provoking article "50 Years of Innovation, Myth Making and Myth Busting," written for the 50th anniversary of the Journal of Portfolio Management. The conversation covers several critical investing myths and insights, including: The evolution of fundamental indexing and why "smart beta" has lost its meaning Why historical returns can be deceptive when estimating future equity risk premiums The surprising truth about long-term forecasting in markets The impact of index funds on market efficiency and stock prices Why buybacks aren't necessarily equivalent to dividends The challenges facing U.S. growth stocks at current valuations Rob brings over four decades of investment experience to this discussion, offering candid perspectives on market valuation, index fund dynamics, and the future of passive investing. His insights are particularly valuable for investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Doug Clinton of Intelligent Alpha to explore the fascinating intersection of AI and investment strategy. We discussed how Doug is using large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini to build portfolios that aim to beat the market over time. Doug shares insights from his experience launching managing AI-powered investment strategies. We dive deep into how these models actually work behind the scenes, exploring everything from portfolio construction and stock selection to position sizing and rebalancing. Doug explains how LLMs can combine quantitative and qualitative analysis in ways that traditional quant models can't, while maintaining the advantage of being free from emotional biases that often plague human investors. We also explore broader implications for the future of investment management, discussing whether AI might eventually replace human analysts and portfolio managers, or if the future lies in human-AI collaboration. The conversation wraps up with Doug's thoughts on the rapid evolution of AI technology beyond investing, including his predictions for personal AI assistants and the potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Whether you're an investment professional curious about AI's role in the industry or simply interested in understanding how technology is reshaping asset management, this episode offers valuable insights into what the future might hold. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for a wide-ranging discussion about markets, the economy, and investing. We explore her unique perspective on the current market environment, including her views on the end of the "Great Moderation" era and the transition to what she calls the "Temperamental Era" - a period likely to bring more volatility in both inflation and economic growth. Liz Ann shares invaluable insights about the importance of looking beyond headline index numbers to understand what's really happening in markets, the difference between behavioral and attitudinal sentiment indicators, and why changes in economic trends often matter more than absolute levels. We also discuss the evolution of market structure, including the impact of passive investing, and she shares some of the most important lessons she learned from working with legendary investor Marty Zweig. Drawing on her decades of experience, Liz Ann explains why investors should focus less on trying to predict the future and more on making sound decisions along the way. Whether you're interested in understanding current market dynamics or looking for timeless investing wisdom, this conversation offers something for investors at every level. Join us for this insightful discussion where we break down complex market topics into understandable concepts that can help inform your investment decisions. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kai Wu, founder of Sparkline Capital, for a fascinating discussion about intangible value investing and its global applications. Kai shares his expertise on using machine learning and natural language processing to identify companies rich in intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects. We explore why U.S. firms have historically outperformed many international counterparts, with Kai explaining how the gap in intangible asset investment has been a crucial factor. We discuss: How traditional value metrics miss important aspects of modern company value The four pillars of intangible value: IP, brand equity, human capital, and network effects Why international markets have lagged the U.S. and how intangible value can help close this gap The role of AI and machine learning in modern investment analysis A surprising analysis of global patent leadership This episode offers valuable insights for investors interested in both value investing and international diversification. Whether you're a quantitative investor or just interested in understanding how modern companies create value, you'll find plenty to think about in this discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios. Key topics include: What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected markets Why U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continue The role of currency exposure in international investing How passive investing flows affect international markets Different perspectives on optimal international allocation strategies Featuring insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification. Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions.

In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Jacob Pozharny, partner at Bridgeway Capital Management, to explore the increasingly important role of intangible assets in modern investing. Jacob breaks down what intangible assets are - from intellectual property and proprietary algorithms to brand value and customer relationships - and explains how these harder-to-measure assets are changing traditional investment approaches. He discusses Bridgeway's pioneering research on "intangible intensity" and how it affects their investment strategy, particularly for high vs. low intangible companies. Key topics covered: How intangible assets complicate traditional valuation metrics Why sentiment analysis matters more for high-intangible companies The implications of AI for intangible asset valuation Bridgeway's approach to long-short investing International investing opportunities and market efficiency The importance of understanding model assumptions and staying humble as an investor Whether you're interested in quantitative investing, understanding modern valuation frameworks, or keeping up with evolving market dynamics, this conversation offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's leading firms approaches these challenges. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Matt sit down with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds, to explore the fascinating world of multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops." Bob breaks down how these complex investment vehicles work, discussing their unique structure where multiple portfolio managers operate independently while sharing infrastructure and risk management resources. The conversation covers crucial topics including: How pod shops attract and compensate top trading talent The economics and fee structures of modern hedge funds Risk management challenges when running multiple strategies The evolution from traditional hedge funds to pod shop models The impact of growing assets under management on performance The emergence of ETFs as alternatives to hedge fund strategies Drawing from his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry, Bob provides unique insights into why pod shops have captured headlines despite representing only a fraction of the overall hedge fund industry. He also discusses his current work at Unlimited Funds, where he's working to make hedge fund strategies more accessible through ETF structures.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Dan Rasmussen from Verdad Advisers to discuss his firm's top research pieces from the past year. They explore several fascinating market insights, including: Why high bond yields don't necessarily translate to high returns The dramatic outperformance of U.S. markets post-financial crisis and the potential opportunity in cheaper international stocks How private equity return dispersion may be more about portfolio construction than manager skill The promising changes happening in Japanese corporate governance Britain's market valuation in the wake of Brexit Dan also announces his upcoming book "The Humble Investor" which challenges common assumptions about predictability in markets. Throughout the conversation, he offers thought-provoking perspectives on market efficiency, the limitations of forecasting, and why humility is crucial for investment success. Whether you're an institutional investor or individual market participant, this discussion provides valuable insights into contrarian investment opportunities and challenges prevailing market narratives with data-driven analysis. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Jack sit down with Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments to explore the fascinating world of managed futures and alternative investment strategies. Andrew, who manages over a billion dollars in assets, shares valuable insights on why managed futures remain underutilized despite their proven benefits for portfolio diversification. The conversation dives deep into several key topics: How to effectively communicate complex investment strategies to clients Why the narrative around managed futures is just as important as their performance The challenges of getting investors to adopt alternative strategies despite their clear statistical benefits How Dynamic Beta replicates hedge fund strategies in a cost-effective ETF wrapper The importance of simplicity in investment strategies and why complexity isn't always better Andrew also discusses the evolution of the ETF landscape, the role of artificial intelligence in investment management, and why maintaining a steady, unchanging strategy has been crucial to his firm's success. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this discussion offers valuable perspectives on portfolio diversification and the future of alternative investments. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness. Key discussions: Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's rise How index fund flows might affect market dynamics The difference between stocks in and out of major indices Whether passive investing could potentially destabilize markets What this means for individual investors Whether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio. Featured Guests' Clips: Aswath Damodaran on active management's track record Mike Green on passive investing mechanics Rick Ferri with the counterargument Rob Arnott on index inclusion effects Cem Karsan on why active may rise again Cliff Asness offering a balanced perspective

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook. Paulsen, author of Paulson Perspectives on Substack, shares unique insights on why traditional recession indicators have failed, how Main Street sentiment impacts markets, and why he remains optimistic despite widespread pessimism. Key topics include: Why the Fed's recent approach differs from historical patterns The changing nature of market valuations The impact of technology on profit productivity Why consumer confidence remains surprisingly low The future of long-term bond yields Drawing from over 40 years of market experience, Paulsen offers a data-driven yet practical perspective on where markets may be heading and why many conventional indicators may need updating for today's economy. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with AQR founder Cliff Asness for a fascinating discussion about market efficiency, behavioral finance, and the future of quantitative investing. In this wide-ranging conversation, we explore Cliff's recent paper "The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and discuss why markets might actually be becoming less efficient over time, despite advances in technology – a counterintuitive but compelling argument. We dig into how social media and constant connectivity might be making markets more prone to extremes, the real impact of passive investing, and why periods of market irrationality might last longer than ever before. Cliff shares his perspective on the current market concentration in the Magnificent Seven stocks and offers insights on high-volatility alternatives from his latest paper. The conversation also covers the role of intuition in factor investing, inflation's impact on markets, and ends with Cliff's essential advice for the average investor. Throughout the discussion, Cliff brings his characteristic mix of academic rigor and practical wisdom, peppered with his unique brand of humor. Whether you're a quant enthusiast, professional investor, or just interested in understanding today's markets better, this conversation offers valuable insights from one of the industry's most influential voices. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a "political utility" where "number go up" has become the prevailing faith. Key topics include: Analysis of shifting market dynamics and investment philosophies The challenges of maintaining long-term perspective in a speculation-driven environment How inflation and institutional trust impact market behavior The distinction between investment and speculation in modern markets Practical considerations for navigating uncertain economic conditions This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors trying to understand the intersection of politics, markets, and human behavior in today's complex financial landscape. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Brent Kochuba dive deep into the world of long volatility and tail risk strategies with Kris Sidial, founder of the Ambrus Group. Kris shares invaluable insights from his experience managing volatility-focused strategies and navigating major market events. 🔑 Key Topics Covered: How long volatility strategies work and their role in investment portfolios Behind-the-scenes look at managing vol strategies during market crashes The August 2023 volatility event and what really happened Evolution of the derivatives market and its impact on trading The truth about market liquidity and short volatility positioning How retail options trading has changed market dynamics Kris provides a fascinating glimpse into how vol traders operate during market stress events, explaining how these strategies aim to deliver explosive returns during market crashes while minimizing losses during normal conditions. He also discusses the psychological challenges of running these strategies and the importance of having both quantitative and discretionary elements in volatility trading. Whether you're an institutional investor, retail trader, or just interested in understanding market dynamics better, this episode offers valuable perspectives on an often misunderstood corner of the investment world. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCap Club and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. We explore the fascinating world of microcap investing, where Ian shares his expertise in finding and investing in ultra-small public companies. We dive deep into Ian's investment philosophy, discussing how he identifies promising microcap companies, the importance of finding exceptional management teams, and his approach to portfolio management. We cover: - What defines a microcap stock and the size of the microcap universe - The concept of "intelligent fanatics" and its importance in small company investing - Why profitability and management quality are crucial filters - How Ian approaches position sizing and portfolio concentration - The importance of setting proper capacity constraints in microcap investing - Why turnover can actually be beneficial in microcap portfolios - Red flags for individual investors to watch out for Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this conversation offers valuable insights into an often overlooked corner of the market where significant opportunities can still be found. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, we are joined by Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green. We build on our previous episodes with Mike where we discussed his research on the impact of passive investing on the market and focus on its practical implications and how it impacts how investors construct their portfolios. We discuss the types of equity strategies that would benefit the most from the rise of passive, whether a factor could be constructed based on Mike's research, different strategies that might hedge a potential market decline triggered by passive and a lot more. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to tackle some of the most pressing issues in investing today. We dive deep into topics that are on many investors' minds, including: Is value investing still effective in today's market? How is the rise of passive investing impacting market efficiency? Should we be concerned about market concentration? Is international diversification still important? What role will artificial intelligence play in investing? Larry brings his decades of experience and research to bear, challenging common assumptions and offering nuanced perspectives that often go against conventional wisdom. We explore the importance of maintaining a long-term view, the dangers of recency bias, and why Larry believes hyper-diversification across multiple asset classes may be beneficial for investors. We also discuss factor investing, the increasing role of alternatives, and how individual investors can approach portfolio construction in our evolving market landscape. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ben Carlson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the popular investing blog "A Wealth of Common Sense." We discussed his insightful article "15 Ways to Lose Money in the Markets," which outlines major mistakes investors make and how to avoid them. We explore a variety of topics, including: - The dangers of market timing and why it's so difficult to get right - Why investors shouldn't blindly follow advice from billionaires or pundits - The importance of not overreacting to short-term market volatility - How to approach active vs. passive investing strategies - The pitfalls of trying to get rich overnight and the value of long-term investing - Why it's crucial to avoid selling during bear markets - The risks of being overly pessimistic about markets and the economy Ben provided valuable insights on each of these topics, emphasizing the importance of having a long-term perspective, avoiding big mistakes, and sticking to a well-thought-out investment plan. This conversation offers valuable lessons for investors at all levels, from beginners to seasoned professionals. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors for an in-depth discussion on the current state of markets and the global economy. We explore: - How geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine are impacting markets and risk - Cem's views on inflation, recent Fed actions, and market flows - The impact of options positioning and market structure on volatility - Cem's outlook for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024 - Historical patterns around elections and how they may apply today - Thoughts on the rise of passive investing and potential shifts ahead - Perspectives on AI as both a productivity driver and investment theme Cem shares his unique insights on how the current market backdrop compares to other periods of elevated populism and inflation, and what that could mean for returns and investor behavior going forward. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠