Plain English with Derek Thompson

The two biggest stories in the world right now—the war involving Iran and the rise of artificial intelligence—are, at their core, the same story: energy. The Iran conflict has become a war of competing energy blockades, with Iran squeezing American allies and America squeezing Iran. And AI is its own energy arms race, with tech companies scrambling not just for customers but for supply—chips, electricity, and data center capacity. What does it mean when every major story leads back to energy? Derek talks with energy analyst Nat Bullard about a world where power, in every sense of the word, is the thing everyone is fighting over. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nat Bullard Producer: Devon Baroldi Link: https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Something weird is going on with the elevated unemployment rate for young people today, but no one knows what exactly it is. For the last year, as the unemployment rate for recent college graduates has crept up ominously, one of the questions I’ve reported more deeply than any other is: Is AI replacing young workers’ jobs? To make a long story short: I initially thought yes, then some economists convinced me the answer was no, then some other economists convinced me the answer was yes, then some other people convinced me the answer was no. Clear as mud. Today’s guest is Rogé Karma. He’s a staff writer at The Atlantic, where he writes about economics. We talk about the labor market for new hires, why young college graduates are so miserable, and why economic vibes are worth paying attention to, even if the official statistics are pointing in another direction. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Rogé Karma Producer: Devon Baroldi Links:https://www.theatlantic.com/category/work-progress/ https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/04/job-market-artificial-intelligence/686659/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Perhaps you’ve heard the news: The U.S. is experiencing a religious revival, and it’s concentrated among young people, who are flocking back to the fold. The Economist announced that “the West has stopped losing its religion.” The Washington Post declared that “Catholicism is drawing in Gen Z men.” This is shocking news. Since the 1990s, the share of Americans who say they have no religious affiliation has been skyrocketing. A reversal would be historic. But today’s guest, Ryan Burge, tells us that the secular pause in America is much stranger than it looks. Ryan is the author of the sensational Substack Graphs About Religion, which is full of beautiful graphs about religion. So today’s episode will be a little special for folks on YouTube and Spotify. You’ll be able to see the beautiful graphs that Ryan makes that really hammer home his deepest conclusions. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ryan Burge Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: Practically this entire episode is inspired by the work on Ryan’s amazing Substack. You can subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The 1970s oil crisis changed the world in ways that many people forget today, from the transformation of American politics to the rise of the Japanese electronics industry. The Iran war of 2026 could have similarly global consequences, from the rise of China to changes in the future of war to the acceleration of the global renewables transition. Today, Australian investor and writer Alex Turnbull joins the show to discuss the most important and most surprising second-order effects of the war. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Alex Turnbull Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One of the themes we’ve circled in the last few weeks is the way that the modern world can hijack our values. This principle was recently articulated by the philosopher C. Thi Nguyen in an episode called "How Metrics Make Us Miserable." Thi told us that he became a philosopher to answer the biggest questions in life but discovered, in grad school, that everybody around him mostly cared about numbers. Journals were ranked by status: numbers. The university departments were ranked by status: more numbers. Individual researchers had their own h-scores and other public quantifications of prestige: numbers, numbers, and numbers. And this cult of quantification completely took over his life. The internal value of “I want to answer the world’s deepest questions” becomes replaced by the external value of “make number go up.” What do we call this extraordinary force for bulldozing our values, and replacing them with something outside of us—synthetic, bureaucratic, inauthentic? Let’s call it the machine. If you become a philosopher to discover the meaning of life but only work on the papers that you think will end up in journals scored highly by a bureaucracy you’ll never see … that’s the machine. If you’re a podcaster who wants to answer the most compelling questions in the world but ends up just focusing on rage-bait political news because that’s what YouTube fingers are clicking on, that’s the machine. What’s the opposite of the machine? It’s something a little different than success. It’s success plus the ability to hold our values in the face of external systems that try to crush them. Today’s guest Brad Stulberg calls it: excellence. Today's podcast is about excellence. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Brad Stulberg Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: The Way of Excellence by Brad Stulberg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s podcast is an interview with one of the cofounders of the AI company Anthropic, Jack Clark. One thing I’m trying to do with the subject of artificial intelligence is offer a balance of perspectives on an issue that tends to receive mostly one-sided coverage. Some people are certain that AI is a bubble; some are certain it is not. Some are certain that AI will destroy millions of jobs; some are certain that it will not. I want listeners of this show to feel like every time they hear an intelligent take on one side of this issue, the next episode they’ll hear a countervailing take. Two weeks ago, you heard the investor and writer Paul Kedrosky argue that AI was an economic bubble. But if any single data point pierces that narrative, it’s this. From December 2025 to this month, March 2026, Anthropic has more than doubled its annual recurring revenue, from $9 billion to nearly $20 billion. According to several analysts, there is no record of any company growing this fast at this scale. Now, I don’t need Jack Clark or anybody at Anthropic to read me a corporate statement about the company’s revenue growth. I can read that myself. What I wanted to do today is ask questions that only someone in Jack’s position can answer. If Anthropic’s executives believe that AI might be as dangerous as nuclear weapons, what right does any private business have to build this sort of thing for profit? How does the company balance its reputation as the industry leader in caution and safety with its other reputation as one of the fastest developers of this technology? And if artificial intelligence has the capacity to produce a country of geniuses in a data center—as Anthropic’s CEO insists—why do Americans overall say they disapprove of artificial intelligence more than just about every other institution and individual in the world? Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jack Clark Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If you're a typical worker with a salary, you have almost no control over how much tax you owe. But if you own a company worth billions of dollars, the income tax is, in the words of my guest today, "largely optional." Countries around the world struggle to get billionaires to pay a higher tax rate than middle-income families. Gabriel Zucman is one of the world's leading experts on tax inequality, the economist who first rigorously measured what U.S. billionaires actually pay—and he found that it's less, as a share of income, than what a middle-class American pays. He's advised Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders on wealth tax proposals and recently published sweeping new research showing that the problem is global. Today, we get into the mechanics of billionaire tax avoidance, the history of failed wealth taxes, and whether the AI era is about to make all of this dramatically worse. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Gabriel Zucman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2017, Americans legally bet about $5 billion on sports. Last year, that number rose to $160 billion. Gambling hasn’t just taken over sports. It’s invaded culture, politics, and even international warfare. Bettors have already made millions of dollars wagering on the precise dates and locations of bombing campaigns in Iran, and journalists have been hounded for reporting on events that can lose bettors money. It’s one thing to believe, as I do, that it would be foolish to entirely ban sports gambling in the U.S. It’s another to watch the warp-speed casino-ification of American life and not think, “Something has gone badly wrong here!” McKay Coppins, a staff writer at The Atlantic, joins the show to discuss his new cover story on how gambling conquered sports … and everything else. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: McKay Coppins Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/04/online-sports-betting-app-addiction/686061/ Source for all photos: Getty Images Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The AI buildout continues to break records, as the hyperscalers pour hundreds of billions of dollars into chips and data centers, even as investors punish their stock prices. But the revenue side of the ledger is showing signs of takeoff. In the last few weeks, OpenAI and Anthropic have added billions of dollars of cash, on their way to becoming two of the fastest growing companies in history. Last year, Derek was convinced that AI was on its way to being one of the biggest bubbles in modern capitalism’s history. But the torpid rise of AI agents is starting to change his mind. So he wanted to bring someone on to test his evolving theory. The investor and writer Paul Kedrosky returns to the show to make his own case even more firmly: AI is a bubble, and the evidence is all around us. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Check out Paul's podcast 'The Nick, Dick and Paul Show' on YouTube and Spotify: https://www.youtube.com/@nickdickpaul https://open.spotify.com/show/6mxUS2hFE2hdaNx1sjhdYu?si=67add32695c546bf Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Kedrosky Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why do placebo effects work, even when patients know that they're taking a sugar pill? How do "nocebo" effects work, and why do some people hold onto beliefs that they suspect might bring them pain and suffering? What do the major world religions have to teach secular athletes and workers about the power of belief, and what does the psychological research tell us about the benefits of prayer, even for those who don't believe in God? Nir Eyal, bestselling author of the new book Beyond Belief, joins the show to talk about the research behind how our beliefs shape our lives. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nir Eyal Producer: Devon Baroldi Today’s open is adapted from Derek’s Substack essay “If Placebos Work So Well, Why Not Prescribe Sugar Pills For Everything?” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Strait of Hormuz is the tiny bottleneck that could destabilize the global economy. As a critical passageway for crude oil, natural gas, and critical inputs for fertilizer, computer chips, and plastic, this small stretch of water is a tiny chokepoint for global trade, and the war in Iran has all but shut it down. What does this mean for the U.S. economy and other countries around the world?  Geopolitical analyst Rachel Ziemba joins the show to discuss. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Rachel Ziemba Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What happens when the two biggest stories in the world—the Trump White House and the development of advanced artificial intelligence—collide? Well, nothing good, apparently. When contract negotiations broke down between the Pentagon and Anthropic, a leading AI lab, the Department of War took the extraordinary step of labeling Anthropic a "supply chain risk," a designation typically reserved for Chinese companies suspected of spying on American technology. It’s not just liberals like me that found this announcement jarring. The technology writer Dean Ball—who served as Senior Policy Advisor for AI at the White House as recently as last summer—said the decision amounted to a nearly tyrannical attack on private property. (After all, if the government can walk up to your company, make you a deal, and destroy your company if you say no, that certainly sounds like a world in which the state can destroy whatever it trains its eyes on.) So, I wanted to talk to Dean about what he sees—and why he thinks this episode is so important, and so terrifying. Today, we talk about the difference between Biden and Trump’s approach to artificial intelligence before diving into the Anthropic mess, and pulling out of it the bigger story, according to Dean: that Trump’s scattershot AI policy is just the latest sign that AI’s capabilities are growing faster than many people want to admit—this technology is going somewhere fast, and the the American government simply is not prepared for where it’s taking us. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Dean Ball Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Donald Trump’s polling has continued to edge down week after week. And yet approval of the Democratic Party is still stuck near its all-time low, according to Gallup and other surveys. One interpretation of these polls is that the deep unpopularity of the party is an albatross around the neck of Democratic candidates. But there’s another interpretation that I think is more interesting—and perhaps more true. The fact that the party has no clearly defined national leader, and no clearly defined “brand” (sorry), is an opportunity for young Democrats to define themselves as individuals. Rather than act like a congregation all singing from the same hymnal, they can experiment, disagree, and adapt their message to their electorate. And that might ultimately prove to be a strength of the party heading into the 2026 midterms rather than a weakness. Senator Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) joins the show to talk about the Iran war, immigration, affordability vs. aspiration, and the future of the Democratic Party. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Ruben GallegoProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dramatic regime change. Moderate regime evolution. A calamitous regional conflict. Or … no change at all. Today we consider how the Iran conflict might evolve following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei with Karim Sadjadpour, an American policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Karim SadjadpourProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The modern world swims in numbers: work metrics, fitness metrics, health metrics, social media metrics. Sometimes the quantification of life can make things better. But very often, I think they force us to play the games we can measure rather than the games we value. The quantified life has become a modern religion: a system of values that takes us over and keeps us from living the life we want. Today’s guest is the philosopher C. Thi Nguyen. He is the author of the book The Score: How to Stop Playing Somebody Else's Game. We talk about metrics, the games of life, and how to listen to the parts of ourselves that cannot be reduced to numbers. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: C. Thi Nguyen Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The GLP-1 drug revolution has taken the medicine world by storm. I’ve done several episodes on the science of GLP-1s. But we’ve never done an episode like this before, where we talk to one of the most important people in charge of guiding the GLP-1 drug revolution. Our guest is Dave Ricks, the CEO of Eli Lilly, the largest pharmaceutical company in the world. First we talk about what makes the GLP-1 drug category special and the science that Lilly is doing to improve these drugs. Then, we talk about the pharmaceutical industry more broadly. How it works. How it could work better. And I don’t shy away from the question that I think Pharma CEOs need to take much more seriously: If the pharmaceutical industry is theoretically more devoted than any other economic category to saving people’s lives, why do Americans distrust it more than any other industry in the entire economy? Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: David RicksProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Donald Trump suffered a huge blow Friday when the Supreme Court struck down the centerpiece of his economic policy: his vast system of tariffs. So, what happens now? Harvard’s Jason Furman explains the implications for the U.S. economy, consumers, global trade, and Trump’s strategy of centralizing power in the executive branch and using trade policy as a means of wringing concessions out of other counties. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Jason FurmanProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the mid-20th century, a group of media and communications scholars proposed that the shift from spoken to written language—from orality to literacy—transformed our politics, our media, our social relations, and even our sense of consciousness. Today we’re undergoing another shift: from a literate culture to something stranger—a post-literate world awash in social media and digital communications in which oral traditions are making a comeback. Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal, the cohost of the Odd Lots podcast, has called this one of the most important trends in the world. Today he explains how he got hooked on orality theory and why it’s the skeleton key that unlocks so many oddities of the modern world. Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Joe Weisenthal Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In his epic cover story for The Atlantic this month, staff writer Josh Tyrangiel spoke to dozens of economists, workers, tech CEOs, and AI experts about the danger that artificial intelligence might pose to the labor force. Is AI developing the capacity to automate and even replace millions of white-collar jobs, as many technologists and some economists predict? Or is this a normal technology that, like previous generations of technology, will have a much slower effect on the workforce? We cover several scenarios before asking: Why does it seem like nobody in politics is paying close enough attention to this story? Links: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/03/ai-economy-labor-market-transformation/685731/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Josh Tyrangiel Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello! I’m back from paternity leave just in time to talk about the biggest media earthquake of the year (so far): the Washington Post meltdown. For decades, the Post was a journalistic gem with superior coverage of politics. Last week, billionaire owner Jeff Bezos decided to gut roughly a third of the staff after the paper lost hundreds of millions of dollars in the last few years. Today’s guest is Jim VandeHei, the cofounder of Politico and Axios and a former Post reporter. We talk about the decades-long rise and fall of the Post before zooming out to talk about the most important changes in news media over the past 20 years, the secret of 21st-century media success, and the coming storm of AI. To read more about Derek’s opening comments on how the future of the news industry is going back to past, check out his Atlantic article on the subject here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/12/post-advertising-future-media/578917/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PlainEnglishwithDerekThompson If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jim VandeHei Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’ve been re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond, and today's episode marks the end of our "best of" series for this year! This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one!“What’s the Matter With America’s Food?” originally aired September 26, 2025.If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]: Derek ThompsonGuests: Julia Belluz and Kevin HallProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst” originally aired September 23, 2025. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Paul KedroskyProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “The Healthiest "Super-Agers" Have One Thing in Common, According to a 25-Year Study” originally aired August 27th, 2025. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Dr. Sandra WeintraubProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “The Modern World Is Changing America’s Personality for the Worse” originally aired August 13, 2025. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: John Burn-MurdochProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “If GLP-1 Drugs Are Good for Everything, Should We All Be on Them?” originally aired September 16, 2025.If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuests: David D’Alessio and Randy SeeleyProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “What Experts Really Think About Smartphones and Mental Health” originally aired June 4th, 2025. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Jay Van BavelProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “How Gen Z Sees the World” originally aired March 12, 2025. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Kyla ScanlonProducer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “A Grand, Unified Theory of Why Americans Are So Unhealthy” originally aired June 18, 2025. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: David Kessler and Eric Topol Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “The Antisocial Century” originally aired January 10, 2025. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nick Epley Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Throughout December and January, we’re going to be re-airing some of our favorite episodes of the past year and beyond. This list includes interviews that really stuck with me and some others that you guys had tons of feedback and thoughts on … including this one! “How to Be Happy and the Science of Cognitive Time Travel” originally aired August 9, 2024. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Laurie Santos Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One of my favorite theories about the modern world is the idea that culture is "stuck." Whether the decline of ornamentation in modern architecture, or the fact that every corporate logo looks the same now, or the fact that Gen Z's favorite television was all made in the 1990s and 2000s, or the sequel fetish in Hollywood, or the theory that old music is eating new music on Spotify, the evidence of cultural stagnation abounds. But is there one grand theory that explains all of it? The psychologist and writer Adam Mastroianni thinks so. He joins Derek to discuss. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Adam Mastroianni Producers: Devon Baroldi Links:https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-hidden-cause-of-cultural-stagnationhttps://www.experimental-history.com/p/the-decline-of-deviancehttps://www.astralcodexten.com/p/whither-tartariahttps://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/america-innovation-film-science-business/620858/https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/america-really-running-out-original-ideas/621055/https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/2025/11/blank-space-book-excerpt-culture/685037/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The University of California San Diego is one of the best public colleges in America. So it was fairly shocking when the school released a report on the steep decline in academic preparedness of its freshman. The number of incoming students in need of remedial math has surged in the past few years. These students did not fail high school math. Many of them got straight A's. Other colleges have seen similar trends: declining mathematical ability from students who aced their high school tests. I think that there are several ways to frame the problem we’re looking at here. One is that American kids can’t do math: That’s the headline of a recent Atlantic article by Rose Horowitch. Another frame, as Kelsey Piper writes in the online magazine The Argument, is that grades have stopped meaning anything. I think that the full story is somewhere in between. The age of grade inflation is also the age of achievement deflation. We are giving more and more A's to students who are learning less and less. There is a lot of talk these days about America moving into a postliterate future. One piece of evidence for this is declining test scores for literacy among students and adults. Fewer people talk about a post-numerate future. The problem here is bigger than UC San Diego. National assessments in the U.S. and even throughout the developed world show that people are getting worse at math. But why? Today we have three guests to help us answer these questions. Rose Horowitch of The Atlantic, Kelsey Piper of The Argument, and Joshua Goodman, an associate professor of education and economics at Boston University. We talk about plummeting math scores for American students, why it’s happening, and why it matters at a moment when carbon-based humans seem to be getting dumber at the very moment that silicon-based machines are getting smarter. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Rose Horowitch, Kelsey Piper and Joshua Goodman Producers: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Many AI experts believe that some time in the next few years, we will build something close to artificial general intelligence (AGI), a system that can do nearly all valuable cognitive work as well as or better than humans. What happens to jobs, wages, prices, and politics in that world? To explore that question, Derek is joined by Anton Korinek, an economist at the University of Virginia and one of the leading thinkers on the economics of transformative AI. Before he focused on superintelligence, Anton studied financial crises and speculative booms, so he brings a rare mix of macroeconomic skepticism and technological optimism. They talk about quiet AGI versus loud AGI, Baumol’s cost disease, robots, mass unemployment, and what kinds of policies might prevent an “AGI Great Depression” and keep no American left behind. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Anton Korinek Producers: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sometimes, the perfect guest to discuss your own writing is ... you. On this special crossover episode, I am interviewed by Ben Smith and Max Tani of Semafor's Mixed Signals podcast about my recent essay, "Everything Is Television." During our conversation, which you can also find on the Mixed Signals feed, we discuss TV, politics, the definition of charisma, and much more. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Hosts: Ben Smith and Max Tani Guest: Derek Thompson Listen to my episode on the Mixed Signals feed HERE. You can find my essay "Everything is Television" HERE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Youth unemployment is rising. Hiring is freezing up. The housing market is a mess. How did things get so bad for young people in the economy? And are things as bad as they seem? Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson of the Animal Spirits podcast join the show to discuss. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson Producers: Devon Baroldi Links: Is this the scariest chart in the world? https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week was a straight flush for Democrats. Zohran Mamdani completed his heroic arc to become mayor of the world’s most important city. Democrats ran up huge margins in the big governor races in Virginia and New Jersey, where Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, respectively, won by double digits. What unified the three victories was the Democratic candidate’s ability to turn the affordability curse against the sitting president, transforming Republicans’ 2024 advantage into a 2025 albatross. Affordability is the Democrats’ new watchword. And it’s a good one. It speaks to Americans' direct concerns. It’s a big-tent subject, allowing a democratic socialist to offer one message in South Brooklyn and a moderate Democrat to offer another message in southern Virginia. Today’s guest is Matthew Yglesias, a writer whose site, Slow Boring, is a must-read for me and many others who follow politics and policy. We talk about the affordability theory of everything and its weaknesses, the Democrats’ big night, the lessons of Mamdani, persuasion, moderation, and much more. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Matthew Yglesias Producers: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ken Burns—the award-winning filmmaker whose documentary films and television series on American history include 'The Civil War' (1990), 'Baseball' (1994), 'Jazz' (2001), and 'Country Music' (2019)—joins the show to talk about the American Revolution and the art of storytelling. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ken Burns Producers: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week, an FBI investigation into gambling led to the arrest of several prominent basketball stars, raising questions about the state of legalized sports betting, which has enriched professional sports and sports media. The problems with sports gambling extend far beyond the integrity of the game. A 2024 working paper from economists at UCLA, Harvard, and USC found that states that legalized sports gambling after the 2018 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court saw “a substantial increase in average bankruptcy rates, debt sent to collections, use of debt consolidation loans, and auto loan delinquencies. We also find that financial institutions respond to the reduced creditworthiness of consumers by restricting access to credit.” A separate analysis found that nearly one in five men aged 18-24 is on the spectrum of having a gambling problem. There’s no question that sports betting has taken over sports. It’s all over ESPN, all over my favorite sports podcasts. This podcast is a part of The Ringer Podcast Network, which has close relationships with the sports book FanDuel and has several shows devoted to gambling. I listen to them. Quite a lot, actually. It would be easier for me as the host of this episode if my position on gambling had the clarity of pure outrage. If I thought that gambling was a pure vice, a mere nuisance, and a total drag, I would say: Let’s just be done with it. On the opposite end, if I thought that legalized sports gambling posed no risk to bettors, didn’t threaten the integrity of professional sports, and represented an obvious improvement to the previous regime of black-market betting, I’d say: Ignore these moralizing bozos and place your 15-part parlay. The trouble is that I don’t have the advantage of clear outrage on this issue. I think that sports gambling is fun. And I think that it threatens the integrity of professional sports. And I think that it ruins some people’s lives. Today’s guest is Jonathan Cohen, the author of 'Losing Big: America’s Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling.' Like me, Jon is worried about the effect that legal sports gambling is having. Also like me, he sometimes bets on sports. Also like me, he listens to Ringer podcasts. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jonathan Cohen Producers: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bestselling author Michael Lewis joins the show to talk about how bubbles happen, the legacy of 'The Big Short' and the global financial crisis, 'Moneyball' and how the data analytics revolution conquered sports and entertainment, the difference between being a good investor and being a good investigative journalist, and the craft of writing. Listen to the new audiobook of Michael's hit 'The Big Short' ⁠HERE⁠! If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Michael Lewis Producers: Devon Baroldi and Kaya McMullen Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s guest is Ethan Mollick. Ethan is a professor of management at Wharton, where he specializes in entrepreneurship and innovation. He is the author of the book 'Co-Intelligence: Living and Working With AI,' and his Substack, One Useful Thing, is the single most useful guide I have ever found to make sense of these tools and use them productively. But he’s also a deep thinker of the Alfred Chandler school of big ideas who wants to not only help individuals use the technology more efficiently but also understand what happens as tens of millions and billions of people use the technology to make themselves more productive or even, at times, obsolete. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Ethan MollickProducers: Devon Baroldi and Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

By some measures, the Democratic Party has never been so unpopular as a political brand. While this fact obviously reflects some difficult realities for the party, it also creates an opportunity for Democrats to redefine what the party stands for. Derek talks to Massachusetts Congressman Jake Auchincloss about his idea for a digital dopamine tax, the art of politics in an attention economy, why moderate Democrats don't have big bold ideas, Derek's two-party theory for political success in America, and more. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Jake AuchinclossProducers: Devon Baroldi and Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Two weeks ago, in one of our most popular podcasts of the year, the investor and author Paul Kedrosky explained why he thinks AI is a bubble. In the last few days, practically everybody seems to agree.I hate this. I don’t like feeling like my position is the same position as everybody else’s. Conventional wisdoms are often more conventional than wise, and I’ve started to wonder: Is there a bubble of people calling AI a bubble?Today’s guest says yes. Azeem Azhar is an investor and the author of the blog Exponential View. Like Paul, Azeem is a fantastic explainer and storyteller, and I’m satisfied that Plain English has now presented the strongest possible arguments for and against AI being a bubble. If you want to know where I land, you’ll just have to listen to the end of the show. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: Azeem AzharProducers: Devon Baroldi and Kaya McMullen Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the second episode of our two-part miniseries on the future of entertainment, Derek goes from Hollywood to NYC to understand why Broadway musicals are in trouble. "With the cost of staging song-and-dance spectacles skyrocketing and audiences drawn to older hits, none of the musicals that opened last season have made a profit," The New York Times recently reported. John Johnson, a major theater producer behind hits like 'Stereophonic' (the most Tony-nominated play in Broadway history) and George Clooney's 'Good Night, and Good Luck,' joins the show to discuss the future of live theater, the death of the middle in American entertainment, and how to cultivate good "taste" in popular art. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek ThompsonGuest: John JohnsonProducers: Devon Baroldi and Kaya McMullen Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The film and TV business has quietly—or, if you work in the industry, not so quietly—been in a depression for the past few years. Original TV work has plummeted. In 2024, Americans bought about 40 percent fewer movie tickets than they did in 2019, the year before the pandemic. The number of people employed in the motion picture industry in L.A. County has also declined by 40 percent. Those are catastrophic figures. Few people have done more to shape my understanding of these developments than Ben Fritz, an entertainment industry reporter at The Wall Street Journal. We talk about what’s happened to the TV and film business in the past few years. What would it take to reverse this trend? And why are some people seeing this reversal as a positive sign for high-quality filmmaking? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ben Fritz Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

America is rich—richer than ever. Yet Americans are more anxious, lonelier, and less satisfied than people in many poorer nations. The 2025 World Happiness Report ranked the U.S. 24th in life satisfaction, its lowest on record. Maybe, as social scientists say, we’ve traded community for consumption. Today’s guest, Morgan Housel, thinks there’s a deeper reason money hasn’t bought us happiness. America, he says, is world-class at making money, but bad at spending it wisely. In his new book, The Art of Spending Money, Housel argues that we’re burdened not only by visible debt—mortgages, credit cards, loans—but also by invisible debt: desire. In this episode, Derek talks with Morgan—the author of The Psychology of Money and Same as Ever—about how money, comparison, and human nature shape happiness. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Morgan Housel Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I’ve had the privilege of talking to many brilliant people about artificial intelligence. And when you ask them to imagine the most beneficial consequences of this technology, they almost always give the same answer: medicine. The dream is dazzling. Superintelligent AI will cure stubborn diseases and disorders—cancer, schizophrenia, Alzheimer’s. It will diagnose all our illnesses, design new lifesaving drugs, accelerate clinical trials, and pair with wearables to fight chronic illness and extend our health spans. But which of these promises are realistic? Which are outlandish hype? And what, exactly, can AI do for us in medicine right now? To separate fact from fantasy, I talk with Lloyd Minor, dean of the Stanford University School of Medicine. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Lloyd Minor Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/09/29/if-ai-can-diagnose-patients-what-are-doctors-for https://www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-ai-isnt-replacing-radiologists?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The past few weeks have marked a low point for free speech principles in America. The head of the FCC openly threatened ABC for the language of a comedian. The president told a reporter that networks that are "against" him should have their licenses revoked. The vice president went on TV and told Americans to turn in their colleagues if they spoke ill of Charlie Kirk. And many have. After Kirk was killed, Suzanne Swierc, an employee at Ball State University, posted that “if you think Charlie Kirk was a wonderful person, we can’t be friends.” Within hours, Libs of TikTok, a social media account, posted her message publicly, Elon Musk retweeted it, and, with the approval of the White House, she was fired. Conservatives claim that Democrats fired first. They say it was the campus left that got "cancel culture" rolling. It was Joe Biden who pressured—or jawboned—the social media companies to take down misinformation, in violation of free expression. It was Democrats who suppressed information on the Hunter Biden laptop. So what can we say fairly and honestly about the state of the First Amendment? Is the Trump administration uniquely perverse? Are we all hypocrites? And why does it seem like so many members of each party can’t wait to use the machinery of the state to limit the speech of their political opponent? Greg Lukianoff, the president of FIRE, the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, joins the show to discuss. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Greg Lukianoff Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the past few weeks, we’ve done several episodes on obesity, GLP-1 drugs, and nutrition science. What we haven’t talked about as much is the politics of food. And today’s guests say: If you really want to understand why Americans are so unhealthy, you have to see that the problem is not just our willpower, and it’s not just our food itself. It’s our food policies. Kevin Hall was a former top nutrition researcher at the NIH who retired after accusing RFK Jr. and the Department of Health and Human Services of censoring a report that questioned their description of ultra-processed foods. Julia Belluz is a longtime nutrition and health journalist. Together, they’ve written a new book, 'Food Intelligence: The Science of How Food Both Nourishes and Harms Us.' If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Julia Belluz and Kevin Hall Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This year, American tech companies will spend $300 billion to $400 billion on artificial intelligence, which is in nominal dollars more than any group of companies have ever spent to do anything. Notably, these companies are not remotely close to earning $400 billion on artificial intelligence. That's why you’re starting to hear some people wonder if the AI build-out is turning into the mother of all economic bubbles. The prospect of an AI bubble should scare us. Roughly half of last quarter's GDP growth came from infrastructure spending on AI, and more than half of stock market appreciation in the last few years has come from companies associated with AI. If the AI spending project blows up in the next few years, as our next guest says it might, the implications for technology, the economy, and politics would be immense. Paul Kedrosky is an investor and writer. Today we talk about the AI capex boom: how it works, who’s financing it, how its financing works. We put the AI build-out in historical context. And then we spend a great deal of time walking through what could go wrong and when it might go wrong. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Kedrosky Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Matt Belloni, the host of the Town podcast and the author of Puck’s 'What I’m Hearing' newsletter, joins the show to talk about Jimmy Kimmel's punishment, what happened behind the scenes at ABC and Disney, Bob Iger's legacy, and what this means at a moment when media companies are bending the knee to the Trump administration, which is clearly using its position to punish free speech despite rising to power by promising to do the opposite. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Matt Belloni Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

To read more of Derek's reporting on GLP-1 drugs, you can subscribe to his Substack here. GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Zepbound don't just help with Type 2 diabetes and weight loss. They seem to curb alcohol, cocaine, and tobacco use among addicts. In some studies, they prevent strokes, heart attacks, chronic kidney disease, sleep apnea, and Parkinson's disease. They’re associated with a lower risk of several cancers, including pancreatic cancer and multiple myeloma. Arthritic patients on the drugs experienced relief from knee pain that was “on par with opioid drugs.” A small study found that they reduce migraine headaches by 50 percent. And emerging research suggests they might even slow the rate of memory loss among people diagnosed with Alzheimer’s. Is all of this real? And if it’s real, how is one drug doing so many different things? And if it is doing all those things, why shouldn’t we be developing versions of the drug for just about everyone? Today we have two guests: David D’Alessio, chief of endocrinology and metabolism at the Duke University School of Medicine; and Randy Seeley, a professor of surgery, internal medicine, and nutritional sciences at the University of Michigan. We talk about how these drugs work—why they seem to do everything—and how our understanding of them could make them better, more effective, more broadly useful. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: David D’Alessio and Randy Seeley Producer: Devon Baroldi Disclosure: Dr. Seeley has received research support from several pharmaceutical companies, including Eli Lilly, Diasome, and Amgen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the past few years, we have witnessed a frightening spiral of political violence. We’ve seen the killing of Charlie Kirk; the killing of Brian Thompson, the health insurance executive; the assassination of a Minnesota House Speaker and her husband; the shooting of a Minnesota state senator and his wife; several attempted assassinations of Donald Trump; an attack on Nancy Pelosi’s home and husband; a plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer; and calls to lynch Vice President Mike Pence on January 6. As The Atlantic’s Adrienne LaFrance writes, this is looking to be "an age of assassinations." LaFrance, the executive editor of The Atlantic, has written tens of thousands of words, including cover stories for the magazine, on the history of political violence in the U.S. Today, we talk about media coverage of political violence before getting to the hardest question: How can America survive a period of mass delusion, deep division, and political violence without seeing the permanent dissolution of the ties that bind us? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Adrienne LaFrance Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

America is sicker than ever. That’s what the data says, anyway. Psychological and psychiatric diagnoses have soared. Between the 1990s and the mid-2000s, bipolar disorder among American youth grew by a factor of 40, while the number of children diagnosed with ADHD increased by a factor of 7. Rates of PTSD, anxiety, and depression have soared, too. Perhaps in previous decades doctors missed millions of cases of illness that we’re now catching. Or perhaps, as the New York Times writer David Wallace Wells has written, “we are not getting sicker—we are attributing more to sickness.” We used to be merely forgetful. Now we have ADHD. We used to lack motivation. Now we’re depressed. We used to be introverted. Now we experience social anxiety. Today’s guest is Suzanne O’Sullivan, a neurologist and the author of 'The Age of Diagnosis: How Our Obsession with Medical Labels Is Making Us Sicker'. O’Sullivan argues that too many doctors today are pathologizing common symptoms in a way that’s changing the experience of the body for the worse. When doctors turn healthy people into patients, it’s not always clear if they’re reducing the risk of future disease or introducing anxiety and potentially harmful treatments to a patient who's basically fine. Rather than see the age of diagnosis as something all good or all bad—a mitzvah or a disease—I want to see it as a social phenomenon, something that is good and bad and all around us. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Suzanne O’Sullivan Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the second of our two-episode series on Donald Trump, economics, and power, we talk to Henry Farrell, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins. Farrell has written extensively on how the United States has in the last few years weaponized its economic power to force other countries to do its bidding, through sanctions or the freezing of bank accounts. Today, we consider the many ways that Trump has weaponized the office of the presidency against American interests and how his authoritarian style matches up against China as both countries race toward superintelligence. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Henry Farrell Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today is the first of two interviews this week trying to answer this question: What is Trumponomics? From the 1980s to the 2010s, it was generally assumed that Republicans and Democrats had settled differences in economic policy. Republicans wanted lower taxes and less spending on welfare. Democrats wanted higher taxes and more social spending. Reality didn’t always conform to those differences. George H.W. Bush famously raised some taxes, and Bill Clinton famously reduced some welfare spending. But generally speaking, the socialists voted for Democrats and the corporate libertarians and free-market folks found their home in the GOP. What’s interesting about Trump's theory of power and economics is that he doesn’t just scramble this divide. He obliterates it. Some of Trump’s measures are so classically Republican, you could imagine the ghost of Ronald Reagan signing off on them. After all, his signature legislative accomplishment in both terms are two huge corporate income tax cuts. But when Trump announced that the government was taking a stake in Intel, Bernie Sanders cheered the news and Gavin Newsom called him a socialist. Trump has single-handedly instituted the biggest tariffs in 100 years—tariffs that are so unusual and extralegal that a federal court just ruled that most of them are, in fact, against the law. He’s waging war on the Federal Reserve, grabbing at an institution that has historically enjoyed independence when it comes to setting interest rates and managing monetary policy. Trumponomics is capitalist and socialist; it’s obsessed with defeating China and also obsessive about copying China; it’s sometimes focused on keeping America from getting ripped off and sometimes focused on issues so personal they have nothing to do with the national interest at all. Today’s guest is Greg Ip, the chief economics commentator at The Wall Street Journal. According to Greg, the best way to see clearly what Trump is up to is to see his economic policy as what he calls “state capitalism.” If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Greg Ip Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Memory is the glue of life. Without it, our focus softens, our experience of the world blurs, and our identities melt away. But as people age, their memory declines. Many billions of dollars have been spent to understand the biological basis of dementia and to devise a cure. In most cases, they have failed spectacularly. But what if, rather than study the brains of people with advanced memory loss, we instead studied the brains of people with the opposite condition: extraordinary memory and brain health in old age? For the past few decades, Sandra Weintraub, a scientist at Northwestern University, has been part of a team studying the brains of "super-agers," people 80 and older who have the memory ability of people in their 50s. In a new paper published this year to considerable fanfare, she found that super-agers didn't have much in common. They didn't share a diet, or an exercise regimen, or a set of maladies or medications. One thing, however, united them: their social relationships. Today's guest is Sandra Weintraub. We talk about the science of memory and the brain and the protective benefit of social connection for our minds and ourselves. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Dr. Sandra Weintraub Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s pod is about the economic story of the moment. It’s about new technology that supporters claim will transform the U.S. economy, an infrastructure build-out unlike anything in living memory that demands enormous natural resources, fears that corporate giants are overbuilding something that can never return its investment, an uncomfortable closeness between corporations and the state, fears that oligarchs are screwing the public to generate unheard-of levels of private wealth. Just a small catch. This show isn’t about the present or AI in 2025. It’s about the railroads and the late 1800s. To be sure, everything I just said could plausibly be the introduction to a podcast about artificial intelligence. Last quarter, the growth of AI infrastructure spending—on chips, data centers, and electricity—exceeded the growth of consumer spending. The economic researcher and writer Paul Kedrosky has written that as a share of GDP, AI is consuming more than any new technology since the railroads in the late 1800s. There is no question that the transcontinentals transformed America. They populated the West; practically invented California; turned America into a coast-to-coast dual-ocean superpower; revolutionized finance; made possible the creation of a new kind of corporation; launched what the historian Alfred Chandler called the managerial revolution in American business; forged a new relationship between the state and private enterprise; minted a generation of plutocrats, from Jay Gould to Leland Stanford of Stanford University; galvanized the anti-monopoly movement; and completely reoriented the way Americans thought about time and space. “The transcontinentals ... came to epitomize progress, nationalism, and civilization itself,” the historian Richard White wrote in his epic history of the transcontinentals, 'Railroaded.' But he continued: “They created modernity as much by their failure as their success.” Today’s return guest is Richard White. Our acute subject is the transcontinental railroads and the 19th century. But our deeper subject is the nature of transformative technology and the messy business of building it. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard White Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

According to analysis by Financial Times writer John Burn-Murdoch, something extraordinary has happened to Americans’ personalities in the last decade. Longitudinal tests indicate that we’ve collectively become less extroverted, less agreeable, and more neurotic. The most significant thing Burn-Murdoch found is that measures of conscientiousness among young Americans appears to be in a kind of free fall. Today, John and I talk about his research. We discuss personality tests, the value of conscientiousness, and how the modern world might be scrambling our personalities by making us less interested in other people and more consumed with our own neurotic interiority. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: John Burn-Murdoch Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the latest GDP report. It contained a startling detail. Spending on artificial intelligence added more to the U.S. economy than consumer spending last quarter. This is very quickly becoming an AI economy. I’m interested in how AI will change our jobs. But I’m just as curious about how it will change our minds. We’re already seeing that students in high school and college are using AI to write most of their essays. What do we lose in a world where students sacrifice the ability to do deep writing? Today’s guest is Cal Newport, the author of several bestsellers on the way we work, including 'Deep Work.' He is also a professor of computer science at Georgetown. One of the questions I get the most by email, in talks, in conversations with people about the news is: If these tools can read faster than us, synthesize better than us, remember better than us, and write faster than us, what’s our place in the loop? What skills should we value in the age of AI? Or, more pointedly: What should we teach our children in the age of AI? How do we ride this train without getting run over by it? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Calvin Newport Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Subscribe to Derek’s new Substack. In 1991, the median age of first-time homebuyers was 28. Now it’s 38, an all-time high. In 1981, the median age of all homebuyers was 36. Today, it’s 56—another all-time high. This is the hardest time for young people (defined, generously, up to 40!) to buy their first home in modern history. Derek talks about the history of how we got here and then brings on Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen to talk about the state of American housing today and how the national housing market has broken into “two Americas.” If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Conor Sen Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Even before the cancellation of 'The Late Show With Stephen Colbert,' the business of comedy was changing rapidly. Twenty years ago, comedians aspired to be late-night hosts, or to star in movies, or to have their own sitcoms. But in 2025, late-night shows are going extinct, adult comedies in Hollywood are a thing of the past, and popular sitcoms are so rare these days that Gen Z viewers are still watching 'The Office' and 'Friends.' Instead, many comedians rightly recognize that they can make more money as solo acts. In comedy, as in much of our culture, the age of institutions is giving way to an age of individuals talking to individuals. Lucas Shaw, a reporter for Bloomberg and frequent commentator on the Town podcast, joins the show to talk about the cancellation of 'The Late Show With Stephen Colbert' and what it says about the history and the future of comedy and media. We also talk about the death of adult comedies, the retreat of sitcoms on TV, why comedy as a field is becoming more of a solo business—and what that says about entertainment culture more broadly. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Lucas Shaw Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sign up for Derek's Substack here. Harvard economist Jason Furman returns to the show to answer two big, burning questions. First, if Trump's economic ideas are as bad as most economists say, why isn't the U.S. economy doing much worse? Second, if Trump fires Jerome Powell, would it be the final blow that finally pushes the economy into a recession? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Furman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Couples are having kids much later in their lives. As young people spend more of their 20s and 30s getting established in their careers, and marriage is delayed, and home buying is delayed, the unstoppable force of delay runs up against the immovable object of human anatomy. It is harder for a 40-year-old to get pregnant than for a 20-year-old to do so. The best solution we have for the fertility dilemma of the modern age is in vitro fertilization. IVF is a decades-long practice based on science, so you might think that the procedure is highly predictable, something close to an act of precision engineering. But people who have gone through the process know it can be messy, painful, frustrating, and expensive. So, what would a real scientific revolution in fertility look like? How close are we to a game-changing invention in this space? Today’s guest is Ruxandra Teslo, a scientist and writer. We talk about the fertility dilemma that exists, the fertility technology that doesn’t exist, and how a revolution in egg science could produce a second baby boom. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ruxandra Teslo Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sign up for the Derek Thompson newsletter. In Game 7 of this year's NBA Finals, Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in the first quarter while attempting to drive to the basket on an injured calf. It was the third major Achilles injury of the 2025 NBA playoffs. Curiously, Achilles tears are typically an older-dude injury, as they're most common in middle-aged men, according to a 2018 study published in the Journal of Biomechanics. So the sudden clustering of this injury among star athletes in their prime has inspired a lot of head-scratching among NBA fans and even the league itself. “We had already convened a panel of experts before Tyrese’s most recent Achilles rupture,” NBA commissioner Adam Silver said. When you zoom out from basketball and consider the broader landscape of sports, the injury surge seems quite real. In baseball, we’ve seen a huge increase in the so-called "Tommy John surgery," which repairs a torn UCL in a pitcher’s elbow. In soccer, ACL injuries have been rising, particularly in women's soccer. And that's before we get to the huge amount of media attention that’s been paid to concussions in football. What's going on here? Vern Gambetta, a conditioning coach, trainer, and adviser to professional soccer, baseball, basketball, and Olympics teams, explains why major injuries might be surging across sports—and what it tells us about the risks of pushing the human body to its physical limit. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Vern Gambetta Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The California housing crisis is a disaster and an emergency. Housing construction per capita has steadily fallen in the last few decades, while home prices, rent, and homeless rates have all soared. By some estimates, the state is three million units short of housing demand—the equivalent of seven San Franciscos. One of the major barriers to building more housing has for decades been provisions in the California Environmental Quality Act. Signed by Gov. Ronald Reagan in the 1970s, the CEQA has been called "the law that ate California." It essentially allows anybody with a lawyer to stop any project they don’t like, for any reason. But this week, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed two bills to defang the CEQA. Housing reform advocates are calling it one of the most important legislative breakthroughs in modern state history. It could make it easier to build downtown housing and other urban development projects such as health clinics and childcare facilities. As Newsom wrote, “I just enacted the most game-changing housing reforms in recent California history. We're urgently embracing an abundance agenda by tearing down the barriers that have delayed new affordable housing and infrastructure for decades." Assemblywoman Buffy Wicks wrote the bill to encourage more high-density housing projects, while State Senator Scott Wiener wrote the bill to exempt several types of projects from environmental review. Wicks and Wiener are today’s guests. We talk about the long road to breakthrough, the art of political persuasion, and the future of abundance in California. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Buffy Wicks and Scott Weiner Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sign up for Derek Thompson's Substack here! Donald Trump rose to power in the Republican Party as a critic of the neoconservative tradition and was opposed to war in the Middle East. But after weeks of Israel’s aerial attacks of Iran, Trump shocked the world with targeted strikes of several Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordo. Suddenly, it seemed like President Trump was getting the U.S. involved in another Middle East conflict. And then, just as suddenly, he declared a ceasefire. (Which was immediately violated, and then agreed on, and perhaps re-violated by the time you read these words.) There are several questions to ask here. How did  Trump, noted enemy of international entanglement, become the first U.S. president to ever bomb Iran? What is the U.S. trying to accomplish here? Is regime change in Iran something to hope for or a fast track to chaos? Ray Takeyh is an Iranian-born scholar and researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations. We talk about what just happened, how we got here, and the ways it could play out. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ray Takeyh Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: "The Right Path to Regime Change in Iran" by Ray Takeyh Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Before today’s show, a personal announcement. After almost 17 years at The Atlantic, I have just officially moved my writing full time to Substack, the newsletter platform. If you like this show, if you’re a fan of my work, I think you’ll love what I’m trying to build. Sign up here. 'Abundance,' the book I cowrote with Ezra Klein, has received sharp pushback from left-wing commentators. But the response among left-wing politicians has been strikingly different. While Bernie Sanders devotees have repeatedly bashed the book, Representative Ro Khanna (D-California), an outspoken advocate of Bernie’s signature policy proposal, Medicare for All, has announced his support for abundance on several occasions. While several people have accused the book of ignoring policies to increase welfare, Wes Moore, the progressive Maryland governor whose private-sector career was devoted to reducing poverty, said in a recent speech that Democrats have to change from being the party of “no” and “slow” to the party of “yes” and “now.” Then there is Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic socialist candidate for mayor of New York City. Mamdani and I have very different politics on a range of issues: housing, affordability, education, levels of taxation, and spending. But Mamdani has in the last few weeks embraced what he calls an agenda of abundance. He’s told podcasts like Pod Save America that he thinks leftist critics of abundance have oversimplified the book and that our approach to making government work better is exactly what the left needs. I saw some people point to Mamdani’s name-checks of 'Abundance' and say, "This is great!" while others warned, "It’s a ruse! Stay away!" I wanted to talk to the man himself. So I was very gratified that Mamdani and I found 30 minutes to sit down Saturday and talk calmly about abundance and the left, how we agree, how we disagree, why government efficiency ought to be a virtue of all leaders (especially those on the left who want government to do much more), and, finally, how to change our minds. On this point, Mamdani and I are in full agreement: To see the errors in our own thinking requires that we have the courage to talk to people we do not agree with. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Zohran Mamdani Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Americans are unusually overweight and chronically ill compared to similarly rich countries. This episode presents a grand, unified theory for why that's the case. Our food environment has become significantly more calorie-rich and industrialized in the past few decades, sending our obesity rates soaring, our visceral fat levels rising, and our chronic inflammation surging. The result is an astonishing rise in chronic illness in America. That's the bad news. The good news is that GLP-1 drugs, like Ozempic and Zepbound, seem to be astonishingly successful at reversing many of these trends. This episode blends two interviews with Dr. David Kessler and Dr. Eric Topol. Kessler was the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration under the Bush and Clinton administrations, from 1990 to 1997. He helped lead Operation Warp Speed in its final months. He is the author of the book 'Diet, Drugs, and Dopamine.' Topol is a cardiologist and the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. He is the author of the book 'Super Agers.' If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Dr. David Kessler and Dr. Eric Topol Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Americans die younger and faster than the residents of almost every other rich country. Why? There's gun violence, drug overdoses, and car crashes. Young people are much more likely to die from these accidents than those in other countries. Just as importantly, Americans are more likely to die from chronic illness, especially heart disease and metabolic diseases. We eat more and worse food. We're arguably exposed to more environmental toxins. We move around less, too. Kevin Klatt, a research scientist at UC Berkeley and a nutritionist, joins us in the first episode of our new miniseries on health. We take on the hottest topic in the diet world today: ultra-processed foods. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kevin Klatt Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm very concerned about the relationship between smartphone use and America's mental health crisis. But many researchers don't see things my way. They insist that there is little to no empirical data showing that smartphone and social media use drives up anxiety or depression. So what’s the truth about smartphones, social media, and mental health? That’s the question that the NYU researcher Jay Van Bavel set out to answer with his collaborator Valerio Capraro. They took dozens of claims about smartphones, sent them to hundreds of experts in the field, and asked them if these claims were probably true, probably false, or unknown—and why. The result was a massive survey, one of the largest of its kind in the history of psychology. Today, Van Bavel joins the show to tell us what he found, what surprised him, and why his consensus survey made so many researchers so angry. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jay Van Bavel Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In November 1932, Germany was a republic. By the spring of 1933, it was a dictatorship. How did it all happen so quickly? Fascination with Adolf Hitler requires no news peg, but I’ve been particularly interested in understanding the story of Hitler's rise, because in the past few months, several prominent podcast hosts—including Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson—have mainstreamed revisionist histories of the Nazi regime and WWII. These new histories often soften Hitler’s antisemitism and treat him as a man of limited ambition; a guy who just wanted to give Germans a bit more living room, who was pulled into a continental war by Winston Churchill. The best book that I’ve read that makes use of the trove of documentation on the subject is 'Hitler’s People,' by the historian Richard Evans, who is today's guest. Evans is the author of a famous three-volume history of Hitler—'The Coming of the Third Reich,' 'The Third Reich in Power,' and 'The Third Reich at War'_—_and he is widely considered the most comprehensive historian of Nazi Germany in the world. His new book distills his multi-thousand-page history into an elegant 100-page synthesis of Hitler’s life, followed by profiles of his most important advisers. The end of the book is particularly interesting, as it profiles ordinary Germans of the time, for the purpose of explaining how normal, non-psychopathic people found themselves involved in a regime so brutal that it’s become a synonym for evil. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard Evans Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The tax and spending bill passed by House Republicans last week is the sort of bill that does so many different things that even budget experts could be forgiven for not realizing just how many different parts of the economy it will change. In the realm of workers' comp, the bill would eliminate taxes on overtime pay and tips. In terms of families, it would create new $1,000 savings accounts for children and give parents an extra $500 per year per child, in the form of an expanded child tax credit. In the realm of health and the culture wars, it would ban the use of Medicaid funds for gender-affirming care and cut funding for Planned Parenthood. In the realm of climate, it would claw back half a trillion dollars of investments in wind, solar, geothermal, batteries, nuclear power, clean hydrogen, and electric vehicle purchases. In the realm of defense, it would increase spending by over $100 billion on shipbuilding, air and missile defense, immigration enforcement, and border security. But judging strictly by the sheer dollar amount of the provision, this bill is really about three big things. Number one, it extends a multitrillion-dollar tax cut on corporate and individual income. Number two, it reduces federal spending on two major government programs by a combined $1 trillion: Medicaid, the government health-care program for those with low income, and SNAP, or federal spending on food stamps. And number three, because of the mismatch I just told you about, between the tax cuts and the spending cuts, it will increase the national debt by several trillion dollars over the next 10 years. Today, we have two guests. First, the University of Chicago economist Eric Zwick joins to talk about the corporate tax cut. And second, to understand how to think about the debt picture, I talk to Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Eric Zwick and Maya MacGuineas Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last year, Kyle and Nicole Muldoon welcomed their baby KJ into the world. Almost immediately, doctors realized something was wrong. KJ had been born with a genetic mutation that made it impossible to regulate the amount of ammonia in his system. The rare disease had the potential to kill him or cause severe brain damage. But KJ is almost 10 months old today. And he’s doing better than ever. Because this little baby has become a piece of medical history: the first patient of any age to receive a personalized gene-editing treatment. It's truly remarkable. In the hundreds of years of modern science, no human being had ever received a medicine designed specifically to correct their genetic mutation. A medicine built for one. That is, until KJ Muldoon. Today, we have a very special guest: Dr. Kiran Musunuru, the gene-editing researcher at the University of Pennsylvania at the center of this breakthrough. We talk about the full story of saving baby KJ, what this breakthrough means for science, and what we need to learn or change to make personalized genetic medicine possible at a larger scale. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Dr. Kiran Musunuru Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Psychology is hard, even when you’re just trying to understand what’s going on with one impossibly complex person. Romance psychology is particularly hard because you’re trying to understand what’s going on between two impossibly complex people. Eli Finkel is a professor of psychology at Northwestern University. Paul Eastwick is a professor at the University of California, Davis. Both are experts on the psychology of attraction, dating, and romance and hosts of the Love Factually podcast. Today, Derek asks: Does anybody actually have "a type"? Are we any good at predicting the sort of people we’ll fall in love with? Has online dating caused people to over-filter for attraction, even though initial attraction doesn't determine long-term compatibility? How do modern, affluent folks' incredibly high expectations of marriage affect satisfaction in long-term relationships? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Eli Finkel and Paul Eastwick Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In every generation, important people predict that the end is near and the apocalypse is coming. In the 1960s, the fear was that population growth would destroy the planet—that fertility would outrun the food supply, and hundreds of millions of people would starve to death. The most famous warning was 'The Population Bomb,' a bestselling book published in 1968 by Stanford ecologist Paul Ehrlich, which claimed "the battle to feed all of humanity is over" and “hundreds of millions of people would starve to death” in the 1970s. But then the 1970s came and went. And global famine deaths didn’t rise. They declined by 90 percent. In the 1980s, deaths from world hunger fell again. And again in the 1990s. And again in the 2000s. The apocalypse that everybody said was coming never came. And the reason is, basically, we invented super wheat. In the 1950s and 1960s, a plant pathologist named Norman Borlaug, working in Mexico on fungus-resistant wheat on a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, managed to create a breed of wheat that was super abundant, efficient, and disease-resistant. His work kickstarted what’s known as the Green Revolution, a movement whose discoveries are responsible for keeping roughly half the planet alive. In 2007, when Borlaug was 93, The Wall Street Journal editorialized that he had “arguably saved more lives than anyone in history. Maybe one billion.” Today’s guest is Charles C. Mann, a journalist and author. We talk about the long history of the Green Revolution. Who was Norman Borlaug? What did he actually do? How did he do it? What does his accomplishment teach us about science, invention, and progress? We’re at a moment today when American science is being cut to the bone while foreign aid is being slashed. I sometimes hear the question: What is foreign aid really worth to us? I think it’s important to remember that Norman Borlaug was a foundation-funded scientist who didn’t do his most important work in air-conditioned labs at Harvard or Johns Hopkins. His breakthroughs came in lean-to shacks in Mexico, where he worked to improve harvests. Without Borlaug’s accomplishments, the world would look very different: Famines might trigger migration that destabilizes countries and transforms global politics. The world we have today, where countries like China and India can easily feed their huge populations, is a gift to global stability, to humanity, to America. It grew from the seed of a foreign agricultural support program. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Charles C. Mann Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On Monday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order telling drugmakers to slash the prices of their medicines. Once again, the president showed an amazing nose for interesting questions. Statistically, the U.S. accounts for 4 percent of the world’s population but nearly 50 percent of global pharmaceutical spending. Americans spend three to five times more on new branded drugs than people in Europe. Why? And what's the matter with fixing this problem by just telling pharmaceutical companies that their prices are too damn high? Today’s guest is Jason Abaluck, a health economist at Yale University. We talk about why Americans pay so much for new drugs but, ironically, pay so little for old drugs. We unpack trade-offs between low prices and innovation. And finally, we consider several ways we can have our cake and eat it too: more miracle drugs and more affordability. Because, after all, what is this whole conversation about besides the obvious: How do we design a world in which imperfect people working at imperfect companies nonetheless collaborate to build therapies that save and extend our lives with products we can actually afford? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Abaluck Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In music, billion-dollar investments in old catalogues are squeezing out new music. In film, Hollywood has become addicted to the regurgitation of familiar IP. In visual art, critics bemoan the straitjacket of political correctness. On TV, as Derek told Bill Simmons, we're in a Gilded Age of television, where every prestigious show looks absolutely amazing—but that gilded veneer often covers up for dull storytelling. What do these trends all have in common? The slow decline of modern media. This month, The Atlantic's Spencer Kornhaber published a blockbuster essay, "Is This the Worst-Ever Era of American Pop Culture?" Today, he joins Derek to answer that question. They discuss the four horsemen of the pop culture apocalypse—stagnation, cynicism, isolation, and brain rot—and the case that, maybe, things aren't quite as bad as they seem. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Spencer Kornhaber Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last month, the unemployment rate for recent college grads surged to nearly 6 percent. Compared to the overall economy's jobless rate, the unemployment rate for recent grads is higher now than in any month on record, going back at least four decades. Business school grads are struggling, too. Last year, The Wall Street Journal reported that elite MBA programs saw that their most recent classes had "worse job-placement outcomes last year than any other in recent memory." What’s going on? Today’s guest is David Deming, an economist at Harvard who studies education and the future of work. We walk through some plain-Jane theories about the weakening labor market for young college grads. But then, as you’ll hear, the conversation expands to consider the coming storm of AI—and how artificial intelligence is changing education and the workforce for young people. To read more on this topic, check out Derek's Atlantic column from last week. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Deming Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we are witnessing an unprecedented assault on American science. Thousands of workers have been dismissed from the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation. Billions of dollars are being cut from the NIH and NSF. Talented scientists are leaving the field (or leaving the country). Clinical trials and longitudinal studies are ending without explanation. Major research universities are under direct attack, with billions more dollars being withheld for political purposes. Today, I want to do three things: First, I want to review what's happening to American science and why it’s so serious. Second, I want to explore how we got here—how the American science system works, and where it came from. And third, I want to discuss what a real reformist agenda for American science would look like. So, for the first time, this is a triple-barreled podcast. First we speak to Holden Thorp, the editor-in-chief of Science and the prestigious Science journals. Second, we talk to Bhaven Sampat, a researcher and historian at Arizona State University, about the history of the NIH. And finally, we talk to Pierre Azoulay, a researcher at MIT, who has spent considerable time and energy studying how American science works and how it could work better. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Holden Thorp, Bhaven Sampat and Pierre Azoulay Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the last few weeks, for the first time in my life, I’ve seriously thought about the 21st century not being another American century. A recent essay in the journal Foreign Affairs by Rush Doshi and Kurt Campbell put things as starkly as I’ve ever seen. Some people are still stuck in a mode of thinking about China as being a place that just makes things of little value and significance. But Made in China means something different now. Technologically, China dominates everything from electric vehicles to fourth-generation nuclear reactors. Militarily, it features the world’s largest navy. Its shipbuilding capacity is 200 times as large as America’s. In a world built of cement and steel, China makes 20 times more cement and 13 times more steel than the U.S. In a world whose future will be full of electric vehicles, batteries, drones, and solar power, China makes two-thirds of the world’s EVs, three-quarters of its electric batteries, 80 percent of consumer drones, and 90 percent of solar panels. In a world where wars are won by the largest militaries, consider that China’s navy will be 50 percent larger than the U.S. Navy by the end of the decade. Today's guests are Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi. Both men served on the Biden National Security Council. Campbell is the chairman and cofounder of The Asia Group. Doshi is director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations and an assistant professor at Georgetown University. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 1937, a Rhode Island psychiatrist named Charles Bradley ran an experiment on 30 child patients who had complained of headaches. He gave them an amphetamine, that is a stimulant, called Benzedrine, which was popular at the time among jazz musicians and college students. The experiment failed, in one sense. The headaches persisted. But he noted that half of the children responded in what he called spectacular fashion, as teachers said these children seemed instantly transformed by the drug. Rather than being bored by their homework, they were interested in it. Rather than being hyperactive, they became more “placid and easygoing.” Rather than complaining to parents about chores, they would make comments like: “I start to make my bed, and before I know it, it is done.” Bradley published the results in The American Journal of Insanity, and it marks perhaps the origins of our treatment model for ADHD. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, or ADHD, has always been hard to define. It’s harder still in an age when everybody feels like modern entertainment and the omnipresence of our screens make it hard for anybody to concentrate and sit still. But clearly, some people struggle with concentration and stillness more than others. ADHD has many classic symptoms, but it is typically marked by patterns of inattentiveness—frequently losing items, failing to follow multistep instructions—or by hyperactivity: say, fidgeting, or, for some children, being literally incapable of sitting in one place for more than half a second. In a way, I’ve always disliked the phrase "attention-deficit disorder," because ADHD is not about a deficit of ordinary attention but a surplus of feral attention—an overflowing of raw, uncontrollable noticing. Last week, the journalist Paul Tough published a long, 9,000-word essay in The New York Times Magazine about ADHD called "Have We Been Thinking About ADHD All Wrong?" Tough asked hard questions about why diagnoses are soaring. Is this evidence of an epidemic? Or is it evidence of overdiagnosis? Paul is today’s guest. We talk about his blockbuster essay, what its loudest critics said about it, what its loudest advocates said about it, and why they both might be wrong. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Tough Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week, a team of astrophysicists from the University of Cambridge announced that they had discovered the “strongest indication” ever of extraterrestrial life. The source did not come from Mars or Venus or any nearby moon. It came from K2-18b, a massive planet some 120 light-years from Earth. If this finding checks out, it is, without question, one of the most important discoveries in the history of science. But many scientists think that ... well, it might not check out at all. Today’s guest is Sara Seager, a celebrated astrophysicist at MIT. Seager is a pioneer in the study of exoplanets and their atmospheres. She has done as much as practically anybody to develop the science of interpreting light from faraway stars to make inferences about planets. In today’s show, Seager and I slowly worked our way up to last week’s announcement by building a foundation of the basic science at play. What are exoplanets? How do we know that they’re there? How do we have any idea about the chemicals present on that planet if we can’t send probes to test their air? What does the K2-18b finding really tell us? And what larger philosophical questions about life and aliens are raised by this new science of exoplanet atmospheres? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Sara Seager Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the past three weeks, we've spoken to economists about the tariffs. We’ve spoken to a historian about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and the 100-year legacy of American protectionism. We've spoken to supply chain expert Jason Miller from Michigan State about why China is set up to win the upcoming trade war. But the voice we haven’t heard is the voice of business. People who run companies are screaming at whoever will listen that the White House agenda will decimate business and plunge their industries into a recession. Today’s guest is Molson Hart. He’s run a manufacturing business in the U.S. for the last 15 years. His company, Viahart, manufactures consumer products in China, Indonesia, and Vietnam and sells them both in stores and online—mostly in the U.S. His biggest vertical is toys, including Brain Flakes, which are molded plastic disks that kids and adults can snap together to build things. This is not a bleeding-heart lefty. Quite the opposite: This is a guy who is rooting for the Trump agenda to succeed. This is a guy who told me in our interview he wants to believe that the Trump team has its heart in the right place when it comes to bringing back manufacturing in the long run. And yet he has called these tariffs not just a bad idea … but the worst economic policy in American history. I spoke to him this week, and he was just incredibly compelling and thoughtful about the toy industry, why it’s so difficult to bring back American manufacturing quickly, and how these tariffs could do incredible damage to America’s small businesses. So we’ve decided to rush out this interview a little sooner than we intended, in part because it’s great and in part because this news story is moving so quickly, it’s hard to know what reality will even look like next week. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Molson Hart Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. is in the opening innings of a full-blown trade war with China. What does that actually mean? What do we sell to China? What does China sell to us? How is each country dependent on the other for the supply of electronics, food, machines, and goods? Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State and an expert on global supply chains, tells Derek that in the trade war between the U.S. and China, one of these two countries seems better positioned to weather a protracted trade dispute—and it’s not the U.S. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Miller Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The 1920s and the 2020s share a special kinship. One hundred years ago, the U.S. was grappling with a mix of growth, technological splendor, and generational anxiety—a familiar cocktail (albeit, from an era where cocktails were illegal). The era’s young people felt uniquely besieged by global forces. “My whole generation is restless," F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote in This Side of Paradise. “A new generation dedicated more than the last to the fear of poverty and the worship of success; grown up to find all Gods dead, all wars fought, all faiths in man shaken." America was changing. And change always implies a kind of loss. We were moving toward cars and cities and manufacturing. And that meant we were moving away from horses and farmland and agriculture. And so, in 1930, just months into the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover signed a new piece of legislation to restore farmers to their previous glory. It was a great big tariff—the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Rather than save the economy, it deepened the depression. Today, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff is one of the most infamous failures in the history of American politics. To suggest that it holds lessons for this moment in history is to state the obvious. Our guest is Douglas Irwin, an economist and historian at Dartmouth University and an expert on the economic debates of the Great Depression. We talk about the economic motivations of the Smoot-Hawley tariff, the congressional debates that shaped it, the president who signed it, and the legacy it left. We talk about the economic instinct to preserve the past—an instinct that has never gone away in American history—and the profound irony, that some efforts to return America to its former glory can have the unintended effect of robbing America of a richer future. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Douglas Irwin Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Donald Trump's tariff plan has set global markets on fire. What are they for? What are they trying to accomplish? Fresh off his black-out-rage session on CNBC, Derek talks to Matthew Klein, the author of ‘The Overshoot’ newsletter and coauthor with economist Michael Pettis of the widely acclaimed economics book ‘Trade Wars Are Class Wars.’ We talk about the Trump tariffs, their place in history, the goal of reindustrialization, and why our problem with China is a malady worth solving—even if Trump’s medicine is just making us sicker. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Matthew Klein Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Donald Trump's second term has been a breakneck whirlwind: tariffs announced, tariffs unannounced, tariffs reannounced, allies threatened, and global coalitions ripped apart. What sort of a world are Trump and the White House trying to build? If you stand back from the brush strokes, and take in the full mural, it is possible to see something like a grand economic strategy. One way his chief economic advisers have put it is that we’re using America’s power in the 2020s as leverage to rebalance the global economy in a way that helps U.S. companies grow faster. There are several questions to ask about this stated economic strategy. One is whether or not it’s working. When tariffs designed to buoy the auto manufacturing economy lead instead to hundreds of layoffs among steelworkers getting walloped by trade wars—as they did this past week—it's hard to be confident that Trump's gambit is paying off. A very different question to ask is whether Trump’s economic strategy is _economic—_or, strictly speaking, strategic—at all. Much of our geopolitical agenda today seems to be a simple extrapolation of Donald Trump’s personality. His proclivity for audacious promises. His tactic of using leverage to squeeze counterparties. His preference for mano a mano deal-making over coalitional bargains. Today’s guests are Rogé Karma, a staff writer for The Atlantic, and Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard. We talk about the new world order Trump seems to be accelerating us toward. But we also talk about Trump himself, an unusual leader whose governance style often seems to have more to do with personal leverage than with policy. By evaluating the White House along both of these fronts, perhaps we can begin to see around the corner and understand what kind of a world, and what kind of a global economy, Donald Trump is pulling into view. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Rogé Karma and Jason Furman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Corruption. Class wars. Technological splendor. The dawn of a new age of business and government. Rockefeller and Carnegie. The Gilded Age in America—roughly the 1870s through the early 1900s—was one of the most fascinating and misunderstood eras in our history. It seems like every week, news organizations claim that the U.S. is in a new Gilded Age. But what does that mean? What was the Gilded Age? Today’s guest is Richard White, award-winning historian and author of ‘The Republic for Which It Stands,’ a mammoth history of America between the end of the Civil War and the end of the 19th century. We talk about how corruption and monopoly and power worked during that period. We talk about Rockefeller and Carnegie and Morgan, and how these giants typified the era with their business genius and their thin sense of morality. We talk about how the monopolies of this era used the government, and the government used these monopolies. And we talk about how the movements that emerged from the Gilded Age invented the modern world. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard White Producer: Devon Baroldi P.S. If you live in Seattle, Atlanta, or the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Derek is coming your way in March! See him live at book events in your city. Tickets here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Donald Trump is serving up a scarcity agenda to America. He and the White House say we don’t have an economy that works, so we might just need to accept a period of economic hardship. They say America cannot afford its debt, and therefore we cannot afford health care for the poor. They say America doesn’t have enough manufacturing, so we have to accept less trade. They say America doesn’t have enough housing, and so we need fewer immigrants. America needs the opposite of this scarcity mindset to grow and thrive. We need an abundance agenda. But what does that mean? The answer to that question is in my new book, which I cowrote with the New York Times columnist and podcaster Ezra Klein. He is also today’s guest. We talk about ‘Abundance’ the book, and why it exists. And we talk about abundance the idea, and why it matters. (You can buy the book here!) If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ezra Klein Producer: Devon Baroldi P.S. If you live in Seattle, Atlanta, or the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Derek is coming your way in March! See him live at book events in your city. Tickets here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Generation Z, which was born between the late 1990s and the early 2010s, has a unique economic, political, and cultural identity. In the 2024 election, Gen Z shifted strongly to the right. They are less likely than any previous generation to expect they’ll achieve the American Dream. Most of Gen Z graduated into a pandemic economy or entered high school during the school shutdown years.They have record-high rates of anxiety. They use their phone ... a lot. Defined by the forces of scarcity, phone-driven media, and global crisis, they are different. And their differences will drive the future of U.S. economics, politics, and culture. Today’s guest Kyla Scanlon is 27 years old, making her an older Gen Z representative. As a financial commentator on TikTok, Instagram, and Substack, she’s coined several terms—like the vibecession—that have made their way into the New York Times and federal economic reports. For a long time, I wanted to have a conversation about young people that doesn’t make me subject to a bunch of Reddit memes of Steve Buscemi holding the skateboard asking, “how do you do, fellow kids?” I wanted to get somebody smart, who was a member of Gen Z, and who also had conducted their own surveys of Gen Z. I’m very honored to have Kyla tell me about how young people today think and what they want. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kyla Scanlon Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Cancer is not a singular disease but a category of hundreds, even thousands, of rare diseases with different molecular signatures and genetic roots. Cancer scientists are looking for a thousand perfect keys to pick a thousand stubborn locks. Today's episode is about the hardest lock of them all: pancreatic cancer. Cancer’s power lives in its camouflage. The immune system is often compared to a military search and destroy operation, with our T cells serving as the expert snipers, hunting down antigens and taking them out. But cancer kills so many of us because it looks so much like us. Pancreatic cancer is so deadly in part because it's expert at hiding itself from the immune system. Now, here’s the good news. This might be the brightest moment for progress in  pancreatic cancer research in decades—and possibly ever. In the past few years, scientists have developed new drugs that target the key gene mutation responsible for out of control cell growth. Recently, a team of scientists at Oregon Health and Science University claimed to have developed a blood test that is 85 percent accurate at early-stage detection of pancreatic cancer, which is absolutely critical given how advanced the cancer is by the time it’s typically caught. And last month, a research center at Memorial Sloan Kettering published a truly extraordinary paper. Using mRNA technology similar to the COVID vaccines, a team of scientists designed a personalized therapy to buff up the immune systems of people with pancreatic cancer. Patients who responded to the treatment saw results that boggle the mind: 75 percent were cancer-free three years after their initial treatment. Not just alive, which would be its own minor miracle. But cancer-free. The mRNA vaccine, administered within a regimen of standard drugs, stood up to the deadliest cancer of them all and won. Today’s guest is the head of that research center, the surgical oncologist Vinod Balachandran. The concept of a personalized cancer vaccine is still unproven at scale. But if it works, the potential is enormous. But again: Cancer does not exist, as a singular disease. Cancer is a category of rare diseases, many of which are exquisitely specific to the molecular mosaic of the patient. Cancers are personal. Perhaps in a few years, our cures for cancers will be equally personalized. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Vinod Balachandran Producer: Devon Baroldi Links:  Cancer Vaccine paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08508-4 P.S. Derek wrote a new book! It’s called 'Abundance,' and it’s about an optimistic vision for politics, science, and technology that gets America building again. Buy it here: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Abundance/Ezra-Klein/9781668023488 Plus: If you live in Seattle, Atlanta, or the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Derek is coming your way in March! See him live at book events in your city. Tickets here: The Abundance Book Tour Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Artificial intelligence tools for musicians are getting eerily good, very fast. Their work can be maddening, funny, ethically dubious, and downright fascinating all at the same time. TV and podcast composer Mark Henry Phillips joins to describe his experience working with them. We talk about the job of modern music composition; why he's worried AI might eventually do much of his current job; the morass of AI copyright law; and the ethics of creative ownership. But above all, Mark gets my brain whirring about the nature of creativity—how great new ideas, like songs, come to be in the first place. The line between stealing and inspiration in artistic history has always been blurry. Picasso famously said: “Good artists copy, great artists steal.” And that is not just a memorable quote. Many of my favorite musicians were famous borrowers, to put it lightly. Some of Led Zeppelin's most famous songs—such as "Whole Lotta Love"—were such obvious lifts that, after years of court cases, the band agreed to add the plaintiff to the song credits. But analogies to music and art history also fall short to capture the weirdness of this moment. Neither Picasso nor Jimmy Page had access to an external technology whose deliberate function was to slurp up musical elements from millions of songs, store their essence in silicon memory, and serve them up in a kind of synthetic stir fry on an order-by-order basis. Musicians have been writing music with partners for decades, even centuries. What happens to music when that partner is a machine: Will it open up new horizons in songwriting and composition? Or in a sad way, will super-intelligence make the future of music more average than ever? Links: WNYC: "How AI and Algorithms Are Transforming Music"  "In February's Cruel Light (Goodbye Luka)" Full AI song "L.A. Luka (I Wanna Puke-uh)" Full AI song  P.S. Derek wrote a new book! It’s called 'Abundance,' and it’s about an optimistic vision for politics, science, and technology that gets America building again. Buy it here: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Abundance/Ezra-Klein/9781668023488 Plus: If you live in Seattle, Atlanta, or the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Derek is coming your way in March! See him live at book events in your city. Tickets here: https://www.simonandschuster.com/p/abundance-tour Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Something alarming is happening with reading in America. Leisure reading by some accounts has declined by about 50 percent this century. Literacy scores are declining for fourth and eighth graders at alarming rates. And even college students today are complaining to teachers that they can’t read entire books. The book itself, that ancient piece of technology for storing ideas passed down across decades, is fading in curricula across the country, replaced by film and TV and YouTube. Why, with everything happening in the world, would I want to talk about reading? The business podcaster Joe Weisenthal has recently turned me on to the ideas of Walter Ong and his book 'Orality and Literacy.' According to Ong, literacy is not just a skill. It is a specific means of structuring society's way of thinking. In oral cultures, Ong says, knowledge is preserved through repetition, mnemonics, and stories. Writing and reading, by contrast, fix words in place. One person can write, and another person, decades later, can read precisely what was written. This word fixing also allows literate culture to develop more abstract and analytical thinking. Writers and readers are, after all, outsourcing a piece of their memory to a page. Today, we seem to be completely reengineering the logic engine of society. The decline of reading in America is not the whole of this phenomenon. But I think that it’s an important part of it. Today we have two conversations—one with a journalist and one with an academic. First, Atlantic staff writer Rose Horowitch shares her reporting on the decline of reading at elite college campuses. And second, Nat Malkus of the American Enterprise Institute tells us about the alarming decline in literacy across our entire student population and even among adults. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Rose Horowitch and Nat Malkus Producer: Devon Baroldi Links "The Elite College Students Who Can’t Read Books" "Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends"  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If you had to describe the U.S. economy at the moment, I think you could do worse than the word stuck. The labor market is stuck. The low unemployment rate disguises how surprisingly hard it is to find a job today. The hiring rate has declined consistently since 2022, and it's now closer to its lowest level of the 21st century than the highest. We’re in this weird moment where it feels like everybody’s working but nobody’s hiring. Second, the housing market is stuck. Interest rates are high, tariffs are looming, and home builder confidence is flagging. The median age of first-time homebuyers just hit a record high of 38 this year. Finally, people are stuck. Americans don't move anymore. Sixty years ago, one in five Americans moved every year. Now it’s one in 13. According to today’s guest, Yoni Appelbaum, the deputy executive editor of The Atlantic, the decline of migration in the U.S. is perhaps the most important social fact of modern American life. Yoni is the author of the latest cover story for The Atlantic, "How Progressives Froze the American Dream," which is adapted from his book with the fitting title 'Stuck.' Yoni was our guest for our first sold-out live show in Washington, D.C., at Union Stage in February. Today, we talk about the history of housing in America, policy and zoning laws, and why Yoni thinks homeowners in liberal cities have strangled the American dream. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Yoni Appelbaum Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Who is the most successful president in American history? George Washington secured American independence. Abraham Lincoln preserved the union and ended slavery. Franklin D. Roosevelt ended the Depression, remade government, and won World War II. But if we define "success" as the ability to articulate your goals and achieve every single one of them, perhaps only one president in American history was ever perfectly successful. In 1845, James K. Polk, newly elected by a whisker-thin margin, confided to his friend George Bancroft the four goals of his four years in the White House. Acquire Oregon from Great Britain. Acquire California from Mexico. Reduce the tariff. Establish an independent treasury. Four years later, he'd done all this and more. As the historian Daniel Patrick Howe wrote, "Judged by these objectives, Polk is probably the most successful president the United States has ever had.” And that’s why Polk is the subject of today’s show. I don’t think another president in American history has so large a gap between his modern reputation and his actual achievement. There are two great biographies about Polk that I’ve read that have been published in the last 20 years. I’m very pleased that today, we have both authors on the show. Walter Borneman is the author of 'Polk: The Man Who Transformed the Presidency and America.' And Robert Merry is the author of 'A Country of Vast Designs: James K. Polk, the Mexican War and the Conquest of the American Continent_._' If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Walter Borneman and Robert Merry Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For the past month, chaos and confusion have gripped Washington and the federal government. Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, have served as an iron fist of the Trump administration—ransacking government agencies, lighting fires in various departments, and generally firing as many people as they can get away with. Much of this work is plainly illegal. Every 12 hours, it seems, another federal judge rules that the Trump administration has exceeded its executive authority. Efficiency is a worthy goal, and some of the programs that Musk and his team cut may turn out to be wasteful. Still, the way Musk has gone about his work—destroying life-saving programs at USAID, mistakenly offering buyouts to nuclear assembly engineers and essential doctors with Veterans Affairs, slashing funds for important studies and data collection programs across government—suggests that his bureaucratic blitzkrieg isn't just illegal; it's careless and harmful. The U.S. deserves a theory of government more sophisticated than "F-ck around and find out." So, what would an effective DOGE look like? Today’s guests are Michael Geruso, an associate professor of economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and Tim Layton, a professor of health care policy at UVA. We explain why any sensible waste and fraud search-and-destroy effort should start with health care spending. Then we get very nerdy about waste and fraud in health care. Most importantly, we talk about trade-offs. It’s a myth that there is some pot of $10 billion just lying around, doing nothing, gathering dust. Every dollar of federal government spending goes to a person in a place doing a thing. And that means that every dollar we cut will have a recipient on the other end who is losing a dollar. Taking government efficiency seriously requires thinking about both sides of this equation: What do we get when we spend this dollar, and what do we lose when we take that dollar away? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Michael Geruso and Tim Layton Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is a conversation I've wanted to have for a long time. It's about the decline of religion in America, the value of faith, the case for belief, and the rational reasons to believe in God. My guest is the New York Times columnist Ross Douthat. He is a Catholic conservative. From an identity checkbox standpoint, we are very different people. But Ross is one of my favorite writers from any point of the ideological spectrum. His new book is 'Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,' and it begins with an extremely compelling description of Ross reading the feedback he’s getting at the Times, watching that feedback evolve from “You stupid idiot, how could you possibly believe in a magical man in the sky?” to “I think I’m missing something in my life, a religion-sized hole at the center of my community or myself. Can you help me find it?” We talk about his religious journey and mine, the history of religion in America, the popular misconception that science automatically rolled back religiosity, the rational, scientific case for the existence of God, why I find that case emotionally lacking, and the case for even secular people to believe in God. And, finally, I invite Ross to give me his single best case that Christianity is true. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ross Douthat Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why is it so hard to find a cure for Alzheimer’s? A simple answer is that the brain and its disorders are complicated. But as today’s guest, Charles Piller, writes, there’s another, more sinister factor at play. His new book, 'Doctored,' traces an incredible, true story of fraud, arrogance, and tragedy in the quest to cure Alzheimer’s. In the last few years, some of the most famous and revered neuroscientists in America have been accused of doctoring images in research related to Alzheimer’s and neuroscience—even as they raised tens of millions of dollars in funding based on this doctored science and set up clinical trials for thousands of patients based on these manipulated results. At the same time, a silent conspiracy of groupthink starved this field of research of fresh ideas, with catastrophic consequences. Piller explains how he broke the story of what might be this century's biggest scandal in American medical science. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Charles Piller Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fans of green energy like me face some inconvenient truths about the global energy picture. First, coal sounds like a dirty technology that the rich world is moving on from. But nearly 9 billion tons of coal were burned last year—an all-time high. Second, "peak oil" is a prediction that many analysts have thrown around in the past few years, but oil production is also near its all-time high. Third, we might not even be at peak wood: Global wood fuel production was higher in 2024 than in 1980. At the same time, I think the renewable energy revolution is proving to be its own unstoppable phenomenon. Solar and battery installations are still exploding upward, and whereas some skeptics worried that the earth wouldn’t be able to provide the essential elements and metals to build out a green energy system, those doubts seem, for the moment, overwrought. Lithium, which is one of the most important metals for battery production, has seen its resources double since 2018. So what we have is not a pretty picture but a messy one. A green energy boom matched with an enormous demand for fossil fuels, as billions of people around the world drive and eat and demand the middle-class lifestyle that is their right. Today’s guest is Nat Bullard, an independent energy analyst and the author of a new extraordinary report on the state of energy and decarbonization. We talk about everything: coal, oil, wood, and natural gas; the history of nuclear vs. solar in America; the solar and battery revolution of the 21st century; the political barriers to its growth; the rise of BYD in China; the flatlining of Tesla's growth; and the future of energy technology. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nat Bullard Producer: Devon Baroldi Nat's report: https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Wealth isn’t just about financial security, according to today’s guest, Sahil Bloom. It’s about time wealth (the freedom to control our own schedules), social wealth (deep relationships with family and friends), mental wealth (the space to think clearly about the most important questions in life), and physical wealth (health and vitality). Bloom’s new book, 'The 5 Types of Wealth,' is uncommonly wise and deep on the questions I care about most. Why is it so hard to make friends late in life? How can we build a life that combines freedom and control with duty and responsibility? What does it really mean to control our time? What’s the best career advice? I think Bloom is uncommonly good at a job that too many people try and very few people master: serving as a clearinghouse for truly excellent advice about being alive and being decent to other people. It’s a lesson we really need to hear these days. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Sahil Bloom Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the past few years, we've learned that GLP-1 drugs don’t just help with diabetes or increase people’s feelings of fullness to help them lose weight. They have broad effects on substance abuse and behavior. They even seem to help with otherwise incurable illnesses, like Alzheimer's and schizophrenia. This month, a team of scientists studying 2 million patients in the Veterans Affairs medical system found that GLP-1s were associated with “a reduced risk of substance use and psychotic disorders, seizures, neurocognitive disorders (including Alzheimer’s disease and dementia), coagulation disorders (clotting), cardiometabolic disorders (like strokes and heart attacks), infectious illnesses and several respiratory conditions.” Today’s guest is a coauthor on the paper, Ziyad Al-Aly. He is a physician-scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. We talk about his new paper, the steps he took to make sure his findings were trustworthy, why GLP-1 drugs might work so well, what they’re teaching us about the brain and body, how they’re scrambling our sense of where volition begins and where free will ends, and what scientists should do next with the revelation that these drugs have effects that go far beyond obesity and diabetes. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ziyad Al-Aly Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: Al-Aly et al. on the effectiveness and risks of GLP-1 drugs [link] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, tech talk with an old friend of the pod, Kevin Roose of The New York Times, who is also host of the 'Hard Fork' podcast. This is a show about everything. And it’s going to remain a show about everything because I’m a little bit interested in everything. But one cost of that purposeful lack of narrow focus is that sometimes you fail to communicate the gravity of the important things that are happening in the world. And at the moment, I think some of the most important stories in the world are in tech—and more specifically, in the relationship between government and technology. A relationship that is closer now than it’s been in many decades. We begin with TikTok—the most popular source of news for Gen Z in America and the most downloaded mobile app in the world in 2024. Last year a bipartisan bill signed by Joe Biden demanded that the parent company of TikTok, which is the Chinese firm ByteDance, sell its American business or else face a ban. Well, today, TikTok is legally banned in America, and also in broad use, because Donald Trump—the man who called for banning the app in 2020—saved it in 2025 by essentially declaring that he won’t uphold the law. We then spend most of this episode talking about the crescendo of predictions from Silicon Valley that the AI frontier is nearing a breakthrough. In the past few weeks, members of OpenAI, Anthropic, and other frontier labs have claimed that they are less than three years away from building AI agents that are, to borrow their language, better than humans at everything. I ask Kevin how widespread these predictions are, whether we should believe them, what it would mean if they’re right, why they might wrong, what’s the biggest bottleneck still standing in their way, and why it’s so hard for the news media to report responsibly on a story like this, where we’re asked to take seriously the economy-shifting potential of a technology that we can’t actually report on because it doesn’t actually exist. And then, because I’m also completely bewildered by the bonfires of corruption that are erupting in crypto-land, we close on crypto. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kevin Roose Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is the first episode of a little experiment we’re trying this year, a podcast within a podcast on history that we’re calling, simply enough, 'Plain History.' There are, I am well aware, a great number of history podcasts out there. But one thing I want to do with this show is to pay special attention to how the past worked. In this episode, for example, we're using the assassination of an American president to consider the practice of medicine in the 19th century. Our subject today is the bestseller 'Destiny of the Republic' by the historian Candice Millard, on the incredible life and absurd and tragic death of President James Garfield. In the summer of 1876, the United States celebrated its 100th birthday at the U.S. Centennial Exhibition in Philadelphia. Of the millions of people who walked through the grounds, one was Garfield, who attended the centennial with his wife and six children. In four years' time, he would be elected president at a shocking and chaotic Republican convention. But at the time, he was a 44-year-old congressman known in Washington for being a rags-to-riches genius. Garfield was a perfect match for the centennial grounds, which were themselves a gaudy showcase of genius. In Machinery Hall, visitors could pay for a machine to embroider their suspenders with their initials. They could gaze at one of the world’s first internal combustion engines, a technology that would in the next 50 years remake the world by powering a million cars, tractors, and tanks. They could see the first Remington typewriter and Edison telegraph system. In the Main Exhibition Building, a little-known teacher for the deaf caused a riot with his science experiment. In one room, the teacher held up a little metal piece to his mouth and read Hamlet’s soliloquy into a transmitter. In a separate room, the emperor of Brazil, sitting with an iron box receiver pressed against his ear, heard each word—to be or not to be—reverberating against his eardrum. The teacher’s name was Alexander Graham Bell, and the instrument in question had three months earlier received a patent as the world’s first working telephone. A few yards away, a scientist named Joseph Lister was having much less success trying to explain his theories of antisepsis to a crowd of skeptical American doctors. He claimed that the same tiny organisms that Pasteur said turned grape juice into wine also turned our wounds into infestations. Lister encouraged doctors to sterilize wounds and to treat their surgical instruments with carbolic acid. But American doctors laughed off these suggestions. Dr. Samuel Gross, the president of the Medical Congress and the most famous surgeon in America, said, “Little if any faith is placed by any enlightened or experienced surgeon on this side of the Atlantic in the so-called carbolic acid treatment of Professor Lister.” American surgeons instead believed in “open-air treatment,” which is exactly what it sounds like. Here are three characters of a story: James Garfield, Alexander Graham Bell, and Lister’s theory of antisepsis. They were united at the 1876 centennial. They would be reunited again in five years, under much more gruesome circumstances, brought together by a medical horror show that would end with a dead president. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Candice Millard Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode has been a long time coming. For years, more scientists and health influencers have claimed that even moderate drinking does serious damage to one's health. As someone who likes being healthy and also loves a glass of wine (or scotch), Derek really wanted to understand this issue more deeply. This week, he published a long article in The Atlantic about his research on the health effects of moderate drinking—meaning one or two drinks a night. In today's episode, he breaks down his research process and conclusions, sharing audio from his interview with Canadian health researcher Tim Stockwell, who is one of the most prominent skeptics of the supposed benefits of moderate drinking. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Tim Stockwell Producer: Devon Baroldi Links Derek's original article in The Atlantic (free gift link!): https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/01/moderate-drinking-warning-labels-cancer/681322/?gift=o6MjJQpusU9ebnFuymVdsD7vJ9S6Vd2LMCE-zROPKQs&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share "The Battle Over What to Tell Americans About Drinking" in the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/health/alcohol-dietary-guidelines.html "Alcohol and Cancer Risk 2025" The U.S. Surgeon General's Advisory https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/oash-alcohol-cancer-risk.pdf A meta-analysis in The Lancet on alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(18)31310-2/fulltext Vinay Prasad on alcohol and the meta-analysis https://www.drvinayprasad.com/p/what-is-the-truth-about-alcohol-consumption Emily Oster on alcohol and health https://parentdata.org/alcohol-and-health/ Tim Stockwell, et al, meta-analysis on alcohol, 2023 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2802963 "Associations between alcohol consumption and gray and white matter volumes in the UK Biobank" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28735-5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With so many confusing narratives unfolding around a fire that is still raging out of control, I wanted to talk to somebody I knew and trusted to get stories like this right. Robinson Meyer is the founder and editor of Heatmap News and a former staff writer at The Atlantic, where he covered climate news and related disasters. We talk about why this Los Angeles fire is so unusual, how it differs from most recent forest fires in California, the role of climate change, and what Los Angeles and other places can do to protect people from the inevitability of future disasters. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Robinson Meyer Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: Could More Controlled Burns Have Helped?  5 Startups Working on LA Fires  What Started The Fires?  Why LA’s Fires Are Exceptionally Hard to Fight  Does climate change make the Santa Ana winds worse? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

My new feature for The Atlantic magazine is called "The Anti-Social Century." It's a long article that revolves around a simple point: Americans are now spending more time alone than ever. This surging solitude is changing our personalities, our politics, our culture, and our relationships. On this episode, University of Chicago psychologist Nick Epley joins the show to talk about why aloneness matters. We talk about his research on relationships and solitude, on why we need people in our lives, and why sometimes we disregard or misunderstand that need, and why "social fitness" is so critical to a good life. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nick Epley Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Happy new year! And what better way to celebrate the freshly torn calendar page than by welcoming one of Derek's favorite writers to the show to tell us what's in store for the 2025 economy. Michael Cembalest is the chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management, and the author of the truly spectacular newsletter, 'Eye on the Market.' Today, we start with stocks and describe the truly historic—and historically unprecedented—dominance of the so-called Mag-7 tech giants. Then, we draw the connection between Big Tech’s historic run and the surge of AI spending. After a discussion on the history and future of nuclear power in America, we do a pit stop on the European economy, where we evaluate the continent’s tradeoff between safety and growth, and move on to China to disentangle that economy’s slowdown. Finally, we connect it all back to a Trump agenda that is a fascinating brew of old-fashioned Reaganite deregulation, newfangled crypto enthusiasm, mid-19th century tariff obsession, mid-20th century industrialization policy, and ... a bunch of other ingredients that I think I’ll just let Michael tell you about. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Michael Cembalest Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Our final episode of the year is also my favorite annual tradition: conversations with scientists about the most important and, often, just plain mind-blowing breakthroughs of the previous 12 months. Today we’re talking about "organ clocks" (we'll explain) and other key biotech advances of 2024 with Eric Topol, an American cardiologist and author who is also the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. But first, Derek attempts a 'Plain English'-y summary of the most confusing thing he's ever covered—QUANTUM COMPUTING—with a major assist from theoretical computer scientist Scott Aaronson from the University of Texas at Austin. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Scott Aaronson and Eric Topol Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why do Americans die younger than citizens of other rich countries? The most important reason is that life in America is inexcusably dangerous. The U.S. has more fatalities from gun violence, drug overdoses, and auto accidents than just about any other similarly rich nation, and its obesity rate is about 50 percent higher than the European average. Put this all together, and the U.S. is rightly considered a “rich death trap” for its young and middle-aged citizens. That’s the bad news. Now here’s the good news. In the past 12 months, quietly and without much media fanfare, the government reported that drug deaths declined, murders declined, traffic fatalities declined, and the standard measure of obesity declined. This inside straight of good news has never happened before in the 21st century—and perhaps decades before that. Today’s guest is Charles Fain Lehman. He’s a fellow at the Manhattan Institute whose expertise is unpacking complex trends in the most gruesome areas, like drugs, murder, and death, in America. Today, he explains why the U.S. seems to be experiencing a sort of mysterious health wave and whether we should expect it to last. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Charles Fain Lehman Producer: Devon Baroldi Link: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/violence-obesity-overdoses-health-covid/681079/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

So, here’s a scenario: It’s Monday. And you open up whatever calendar or planner or to-do list you use to organize the essential activities of the upcoming week. There’s a large project due Thursday. And an important meeting Wednesday. Your nine-to-five is chockablock with meetings, and your kid has a school function Tuesday, and there are holiday gifts to buy before Friday, and just when you’re pretty sure your week couldn’t possibly take one more featherweight of responsibilities, the HVAC unit sputters to a stop, requiring a call to the local heating and cooling guys, which obliterates four hours of Monday. You can tell yourself that this week is cursed. Or you can tell yourself the truth: Feeling an imbalance between the time you have and the time you want to have isn’t really a curse at all. It’s a bit more like ... the definition of being alive. To see life clearly in this way is what I’ve come to think of as Oliver Burkeman brain. Oliver is the author of the books 'Four Thousand Weeks' and 'Meditations for Mortals.' Today, in what's become a holiday tradition of sorts, we bring back Oliver to chat about doing more by doing less, the dubious benefits of scheduling, and the freedom that comes from accepting our limitations. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Oliver Burkeman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last week, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was shot to death outside a hotel in Manhattan by a young man motivated by rage at the insurance industry. His rage is clearly felt widely. In the aftermath of the killing, many people seemed to delight in the man’s assassination. Their reaction was a grotesque illustration of something real: There is an enormous amount of anger and frustration about the state of American health care. And there ought to be. The U.S. is the most expensive health care system in the world, while for many people it delivers bad care at exorbitant prices. But anger is not always a signal of accuracy. And while some of the most popular reasons to be furious at American health care are based on truth, many are based on misunderstandings and myths—especially about the insurance system. This week, I wanted to present a calm and informed conversation with a health care expert to walk me through what I consider the biggest health care questions of the moment. Why are American health care costs so high? How much are insurers to blame? How do other countries handle health care differently? What can we learn from them? And what, if anything, should make us optimistic about the future of American health care? Today we have two guests. First we have Jonathan Gruber, an economics professor at MIT and a key architect of several health care laws, including the 2006 Massachusetts health care reform and the Affordable Care Act. Jon walks me through the key drivers of health inflation and American anger at the health care system. The second, David Cutler, is an economics professor at Harvard who served as senior health care adviser for Barack Obama; he helps us think comparatively about the weaknesses and strengths of the U.S. health system and what reforms could help Americans live longer and healthier lives. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Jonathan Gruber and David Cutler Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crypto industry seems poised for a new golden age. But what exactly does that mean? Who would benefit? And, oh by the way, what does this technology do other than serve as a set of assets to bet to the moon? I have lots of questions about the state of crypto right now. Last week, Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time in history. Its price has skyrocketed since Donald Trump’s win, as a wave of investors bet that the next four years will mark a new renaissance. And this isn’t just a time for optimism. It’s also a time for recrimination. In the last few weeks, several major tech figures, including the venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, have condemned democrats for what they describe as an illegal war on crypto. Austin Campbell is finance vet, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, and the founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting. Today, we talk about the purported war on crypto, starting with the origins of "debanking" practices under Obama; we talk about why crypto now seems like a majority-republican technology in an industry that has historically been democratic; we talk about the biggest use cases of crypto around the world; and Austin tells me why he thinks many people in the industry still aren't thinking clearly about the future of finance. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Austin Campbell Producer: Mike Wargon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the last decade, several major findings in social psychology have turned out to be hogwash—or, worse, even fraud. This has become widely known as psychology's "replication crisis." Perhaps you have heard of power poses—based on a study finding that subjects reported stronger “feelings of power” after they posed, say, with their hands on their hips for several minutes. But that finding did not replicate. Or perhaps you have heard of ego depletion—the more famous assertion that, when people make a bunch of decisions, it exhausts their ability to make future decisions. Again: did not replicate. “There’s a thought that’s haunted me for years,” social psychologist Adam Mastroianni has written. “We’re doing all this research in psychology, but are we learning anything? We run these studies and publish these papers, and then what? The stack of papers just gets taller? I’ve never come up with satisfying answers. But now I finally understand why.” Today’s episode features two interviews. First, I talk to Adam about his big-picture critique of his own field: how psychology too often fails as a science, and what it can do better. Second, we speak with journalist Dan Engber from The Atlantic, who has been reporting on a billowing scandal in psychology that has enveloped several business school stars—and raised important questions about the field. What is psychology for? What would progress in psychology mean? And how can this field—which might be the discipline I follow than any other in academia—become more of a science? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Adam Mastroianni and Daniel Engber Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: “Is psychology going to Cincinnati?” by Adam Mastroianni  https://www.experimental-history.com/p/is-psychology-going-to-cincinnati "I’m so sorry for psychology’s loss, whatever it is" by Adam Mastroianni  https://www.experimental-history.com/p/im-so-sorry-for-psychologys-loss#footnote-anchor-3-136506668 “The Business-School Scandal That Just Keeps Getting Bigger” by Daniel Engber  https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/01/business-school-fraud-research/680669/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Emily Oster, professor of economics at Brown University, joins the show to talk about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., his theories about fluoride and vaccines, and how the media and science community should treat the most controversial topics. This is a new age of science and information, where trust seems to be shifting from institutions like the FDA and CDC to individuals like RFK Jr. and Oster, and I consider her a model of public health communication. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Emily Oster Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What would a world of self-driven cars look like? How would it change shopping, transportation, and life, more broadly? A decade ago, many people were asking these questions, as it looked like a boom in autonomous vehicles was imminent. But in the last few years, other technologies—crypto, the metaverse, AI—have stolen the spotlight. Meanwhile, self-driving cars have quietly become a huge deal in the U.S. Waymo One, a commercial ride-hailing service that spun off from Google, has been rolled out in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. Every week, Waymo makes 150,000 autonomous rides. Tesla is also competing to build a robo-taxi service and to develop self-driving capabilities. There are two reasons why I’ve always been fascinated by self-driving cars: The first is safety. There are roughly 40,000 vehicular deaths in America every year and 6 million accidents. It’s appropriate to be concerned about the safety of computer-driven vehicles. But what about the safety of human-driven vehicles? A technology with the potential to save thousands of lives and prevent millions of accidents is a huge deal. Second, the automobile was arguably the most important technology of the 20th century. The invention of the internal combustion engine transformed agriculture, personal transportation, and supply chains. It made the suburbs possible. It changed the spatial geometry of the city. It expanded demand for fossil fuels and created some of the most valuable companies in the world. The reinvention of last century’s most important technology is a massive, massive story. And the truth is, I’m not sure that today’s news media—a category in which I include myself—has done an adequate job representing just how game-changing self-driving technology at scale could be. Today’s guest is Timothy Lee, author of the Substack publication Understanding AI. Today I asked him to help me understand self-driving cars—their technology, their industry, their possibility, and their implications. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Timothy Lee Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Derek shares his big-picture theory for Trump's victory. Then, Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson explains how Trump shifted practically the entire electorate to the right. Links: Derek's article that inspired his open: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/donald-trump-covid-election/680559/ The Washington Post voter shift map:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/11/05/compare-2020-2024-presidential-results/ The graveyard of the incumbents: https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893 Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kristen Soltis Anderson Producer: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s guest (our final preelection guest) is David Wasserman, political analyst with the Cook Political Report, who also helps out with the NBC decision desk. There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of people whose job on election night is to help Americans understand when we can safely call specific districts and states for Congress, Senate, or the presidency. However, I truly don’t think I know anybody whose calls I trust more than David's. And the even deeper compliment is that David is perhaps the most trusted election night consigliere among all the other people I trust. So, when I wanted to put together a show on how to watch election night like a pro, I’m grateful that the pro of pros said yes. With a week to go, this election has attracted several theories about which trends will determine the outcome. We’ve done shows on the rightward shift among men, especially young men; the politics of working class decline; the possibility that we’ll see non-white voters move into the Trump column while college-educated white voters move into the Harris column. But these are all theories. It’s going to take a while to know if they’re actually true. When polls close at 7 p.m., you’re going to see some people dive into exit polls and incomplete county-by-county returns, claiming that they can see trends and predict the outcome. But as Wasserman tells us, this is not wise. Exit polls aren’t special. They’re just another poll. And their non-specialness is important to note in an age when so many people are voting early and therefore aren’t counted among surveys of election-day voters. Meanwhile, different states have different rules for when they can start counting early and mailed ballots. These rules dramatically and sometimes confusingly shift our understanding of election night. Pennsylvania cannot start counting mail-in or early votes until Election Day morning. This often leads to slower reporting of mail-in results, while Election Day votes are usually counted and reported first. Last election Republicans were more likely to vote on Election Day while Democrats were more likely to vote by mail. If the same thing happens in 2024, what we should expect to see is a red mirage followed by a blue wave—as right-leaning ballots are counted first and left-leaning ballots are counted second. This is not a conspiracy. It’s just state law. In the state of Georgia, it’s the opposite. Georgia and other Sunbelt states can begin processing and counting mail-in and early votes before Election Day, which means what you might see a blue mirage followed by a red wave. One conspiracy theory that’s already starting to attract attention is that any state that looks like it’s voting for Trump that sees a blue wave is a sign of voter fraud. But there’s nothing fraudulent about the state laws that determine the orders in which votes are counted. For this reason, Wasserman says, it’s tantalizing but misleading to draw strong conclusions about the election from incomplete county results. If you want to understand where the election is going, if you want to watch the returns, like a good faith pro, the better solution is to wait for full county results in key bellwether counties like Nash County, North Carolina. Understanding what those key, predictive, canary-in-a-coalmine counties are is the focus of this show. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Wasserman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, a close look at the history of a Pennsylvania town and how that history contains within it the story of the 2024 election. In September, Donald Trump claimed that the city of Charleroi, Pennsylvania, was being overrun by immigrants who brought violence, gangs, and economic destruction. Last month, The Atlantic's George Packer went to Charleroi to report on what's actually going on there, and how the issues most important to Charleroi—nativism, immigration, change, working-class decline, and corporate greed—are also the deciding issues of the 2024 election. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: George Packer Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

My favorite sort of social phenomenon is something that seems normal to modern eyes that is actually incredibly unusual. We take it for granted that every presidential election is a nail-biter these days. But this era of close elections is deeply strange. We used to have blowouts all the time. In 1964, 1972, and 1984, LBJ, Nixon, and Reagan, respectively, won by more than 15 points. This never happens anymore. Since the hanging-ballot mess of 2000, we’ve had historically close contests again and again: in 2004, 2012, 2016, and 2020. This year seems almost certain to continue the trend. National polls have almost never been this tight in the closing days of a presidential contest. In an era of shifting coalitions and weak parties, why is every modern presidential election so close? Today’s guest is Matt Yglesias, the author of the ‘Slow Boring’ newsletter, and a return guest on this show. We talk about how the era of close elections has, importantly, coincided with an era of racial realignment. We propose several theories for why every election is a nail-biter in the 21st century. And we explain why “it’s the internet, stupid” doesn’t work to explain this particular trend. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Matthew Yglesias Producer: Devon Baroldi LINKS: https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-era-of-close-elections https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-electorate-is-becoming-less-racially Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 1900, the average US life expectancy was 47 years old. That's the current age of Tom Brady, Ryan Reynolds, and Shakira. But extraordinary advances in medicine and public health have surged lifespans in the US and throughout the world. The average American currently lives to about 79 years old. How long can this progress continue? As we have gotten so much better at allowing people to live to old age, how much progress have we made at confronting this ultimate boss of longevity? Today’s guest is Professor S. Jay Olshansky, from the school of public health at the University of Illinois at Chicago. We talk about progress and stasis in the most important science project in human history: how to increase human life. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: S. Jay Olshansky Producer: Devon Baroldi LINKS: "Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century" [link] "If Humans Were Built to Last," an illustration of what people would look like if they were optimally designed to live to 100 [link] "Child and Infant Mortality," from Our World in Data [link] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today: the state of men and what's really happening in the gender divide in politics. Many young men are falling behind economically and socially at the same time that men and women are coming apart politically. What's really happening here? Richard Reeves, president of the American Institute for Boys and Men, joins the show to talk about the state of men, young men, working class men, the gender divide in the electorate, why Democrats seem to have a guy problem, and why Republicans seem to have a message that is resonating, especially for young men who are falling behind. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard Reeves Producer: Devon Baroldi LINKS: - “America’s Young Men Are Falling Even Further Behind" - The Tenuous Attachments of Working Class Men Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Since October 7, 2023, many have feared that the conflict between Israel and Hamas would bloom into a wider war that would consume the Middle East. Today, we are dangerously close to that reality. In just the last month, Israel carried out several attacks against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which, like Hamas, is backed by Iran. Israel is widely believed to be behind the remote detonation of pagers and communications devices that were implanted with explosives, killing and injuring scores of Hezbollah members. Israel assassinated the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and systematically killed much of its other leadership. It has launched a ground invasion of Lebanon—its first in nearly 20 years. It has bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria. Iran retaliated this week by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel. In the Middle East, no stranger to warfare, this may be the most treacherous moment for interstate conflict since the Arab-Israeli War of 1967. Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, is today's guest. We begin by visiting each theater of the Middle East conflict: Lebanon, Gaza, Iran. We talk about Israel’s strategy, Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, and Iran’s next steps. We talk about the odds that today’s conflict will tip over into a full-blown regional war—and what that war might look like. And we talk about the United States, what the Biden White House is trying to achieve through private and public channels, and what levers Biden has left to influence the Middle East in his final weeks in office. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Natan Sachs Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Derek shares his biggest frustrations about the 2024 election, like the lack of a policy debate and blind spots in news coverage and polling analysis. Then he welcomes Jamil Zaki to the show: a professor of psychology at Stanford University and the director of the Stanford Social Neuroscience Lab. Zaki is the author of ‘Hope for Cynics,’ a new book that explores tension at the heart of human affairs. On one hand, social cooperation is the basis of human civilization. And yet cynicism—a baseline aversion to social cooperation and assumption that most people are greedy, selfish, and dishonest—is also core to the human experience. We are constantly violating the secret of our own success by assuming the worst in others, and Professor Zaki explains why. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jamil Zaki Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, a mystery about what some people consider the most important position in sports: What the hell is going on with the NFL quarterback? We are two weeks into the 2024 football season. And as several commentators have pointed out, the quarterback position just doesn’t look right. Passing yards per game are lower than any other year in the 21st century. Passing touchdowns have fallen off a cliff. The average completed pass is shorter than any other year in the recorded history of the sport. Today’s guest is Robert Mays, the host of 'The Athletic Football Show.' We talk about the evolution of the quarterback position, why NFL passing is down, how NFL defense got so smart, and where this is all headed. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Robert Mays Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: Pro Football Reference NFL History Page https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/index.htm Mike Sando: QBs Are Younger Than Any Time in 60 Years: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4880988/2023/09/21/justin-fields-nfl-young-quarterbacks-trend/ Bill Barnwell on the evolution of the QB: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41217438/how-running-qbs-changed-nfl-dual-threat-history-value-scramble-stats-future Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We may be on the cusp of a revolution in medicine, thanks to tools like AlphaFold, the technology for Google DeepMind, which helps scientists predict and see the shapes of thousands of proteins. How does AlphaFold work, what difference is it actually making in science, and what kinds of mysteries could it unlock? Today’s guest is Pushmeet Kohli. He is the head of AI for science at DeepMind. We talk about proteins, why they matter, why they’re challenging, how AlphaFold could accelerate and expand the hunt for miracle drugs, and what tools like AlphaFold tell us about the mystery of the cosmos and our efforts to understand it. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Pushmeet Kohli Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Are conspiracy theories more popular than ever? Are Americans more conspiratorial than ever? Are conservatives more conspiratorial than liberals? Joseph Uscinski is a political scientist at the University of Miami and one of the nation's preeminent experts on the psychology of conspiratorial thinking and the history of conspiracy theories in America. He has some counterintuitive and surprising answers to these questions. Today, he and Derek discuss—and debate—the psychology and politics of modern conspiratorial thinking. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Joseph Uscinski Producer: Devon Baroldi Links Uscinski's research page: https://people.miami.edu/profile/60b5fb062f4f266afb6739ec21657c74 "The psychological and political correlates of conspiracy theory beliefs" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-25617-0 "Fake news on Twitter during the 2016 U.S. presidential election" https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30679368/ "Right and left, partisanship predicts (asymmetric) vulnerability to misinformation" https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/right-and-left-partisanship-predicts-asymmetric-vulnerability-to-misinformation/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Exercise is a conundrum. On the one hand, physical activity is clearly one of the best interventions for preventing physical disease and mental suffering. On the other hand, scientists don't really understand how it works inside the body or what exactly running, jumping, lifting, and squatting do to our tissues and organs. That's finally changing. Euan Ashley, a professor of genomics and cardiovascular medicine and the chair of the Stanford Department of Medicine, is a member of a new research consortium that studies rats and humans to understand the molecular changes induced by exercise. Today we talk about the earliest findings from this new consortium, how exercise might have disparate effects in men versus women, why nature’s most effective cardiovascular intervention also seems to be nature’s most effective mental health intervention, as well as whether it will one day be possible to identify the molecular basis of exercise precisely enough to develop exercise pills that give us the benefits of working out without the sweat. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Euan Ashley Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Derek offers a short but sweet review of the Democratic National Convention, the science of post-convention bounces, and the reality of the 2024 polling: It's still a toss-up. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode is about how we change our minds—and what political science tells us about the best ways to change the minds of voters. Our guest is David Broockman, a political scientist at the University of California Berkeley, and the coauthor, with Josh Kalla, of a new essay in Slow Boring on Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and the most persuasive arguments and messages to decide this election. Today, David and I talk about the four biggest myths of political persuasion—and in the process, David will attempt to do something that I’m not entirely sure is possible: He’ll try to change my mind about how persuasion works. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Broockman Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: "What's Better Than Calling Donald Trump 'Weird'?" https://www.slowboring.com/p/whats-better-than-calling-trump-weird "Consuming cross-cutting media causes learning and moderates attitudes: A field experiment with Fox News viewers" https://osf.io/preprints/osf/jrw26 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Laurie Santos is a superstar in the crowded field of happiness research. She is a cognitive scientist at Yale University whose course on the psychology of happiness was the most popular class in the school's history. She is the host of the immensely popular ‘Happiness Lab’ podcast. Today, she and Derek talk about her favorite lessons from modern happiness research, lessons on striving and anxiety from existential philosophy, our relationship to time, the science of cognitive time travel, temporal mind tricks to reduce anxiety like "psychological distancing," and more. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Dr. Laurie Santos Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In a special emergency-ish episode, Bloomberg's Conor Sen joins the show to discuss a buffet of economic and financial fears, including a disappointing jobs report, a meltdown in global stocks, the "carry trade" heard round the world, the smartest criticisms of (and smartest defense of) the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates, and more. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Conor Sen Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Derek offers his thoughts on Kamala Harris, the new 2024 reality, and gender polarization in the "boys vs. girls" election. Then we talk about the spam apocalypse. The average American receives one spam call or text every single day, adding up to tens of billions of robocalls and texts per year. Derek welcomes Joshua Bercu, the executive director of Industry Traceback Group, to talk about the history and technology behind robocalls and texts, why it’s been so hard to hold robocallers accountable, how spammers do that thing where they make a call look like it’s coming from a local friend, how we've managed to crush certain kinds of robocalls, and what it would take to finally win the war on spam. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Joshua Bercu Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It is a general rule of thumb that richer societies are happier societies. This is true across countries, as GDP and life satisfaction are highly correlated. And it is true across time. Countries get happier as they get richer. But there is a caveat to this general principle. Which is that the United States is not nearly as contented as its gross national income would predict. In fact, the U.S. is, as we’ve covered on this show, in a bit of a gloom rut. It has now been nearly two decades since a majority of Americans have told pollsters at NBC that they’re satisfied with the way things are going. This hope drought has no precedent in modern polling. NBC itself reported that “We have never before seen this level of sustained pessimism in the 30-year-plus history of the poll.” Polls show that faith in government, business, and other institutions is in free fall—especially among conservatives. But they also show that conservatives are generally happy with their life and in their relationships. If conservatives have happiness without trust, American progressives seem to have trust without happiness. In a recent paper called “The Politics of Depression,” published by the journal Social Science & Medicine–Mental Health, the epidemiologist Catherine Gimbrone and several coauthors showed that young progressives are significantly more depressed than conservatives, have been for years, and the gap is growing over time. Other studies, including the General Social Survey, show the same. Why are young progressives so sad? Today’s guest is Greg Lukianoff, the president and CEO of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) and coauthor of ‘The Coddling of the American Mind.’ He has written intelligently, critically, and emotionally about happiness, depression, politics, and progressivism. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Greg Lukianoff Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: "People in Richer Countries Tend to Be Happier" https://ourworldindata.org/happiness-and-life-satisfaction "The Politics of Depression" by Catherine Gimbrone et al https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666560321000438 "How to Understand the Well-Being Gap Between Liberals and Conservatives" by Musa al-Gharbi https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2023/03/how-to-understand-the-well-being-gap-between-liberals-and-conservatives/ "The Coddling of the American Mind" The Atlantic essay by Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/09/the-coddling-of-the-american-mind/399356/ ‘The Coddling of the American Mind’ [book] https://www.amazon.com/Coddling-American-Mind-Intentions-Generation/dp/0735224897 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode: the state of American politics and the future of America's economy. Derek discusses a media myth in the aftermath of the failed Trump assassination attempt and reviews three basic truths about Joe Biden's doomed presidential bid. Then, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee joins the show to answer Derek's blunt question, "Are you going to cut rates next month?" Plus, they discuss the Federal Reserve, how it works, how he sees the economy, whether high rates are constraining housing production, and whether Trump's signature economic policy idea—high tariffs in an age of global inflation—would help the U.S. economy. (TLDR: No.) If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Austan Goolsbee Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: “Stop Pretending You Know How This Will End,” Derek Thompson, The Atlantic “Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War,” by Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Skyrocketing rates, shrinking affordability: The U.S. housing market is a mess. It's also a bit of a mystery. Why are prices still sky-high, even though many measures of demand are weak? If the supply of new homes is nearing a historic high, how come the inventory for existing homes is close to a historic low? Today's guests agree that this is one of the weirdest housing markets in recent history. Mike Simonsen, president founder of Altos Research, and Lance Lambert, cofounder and editor-in-chief of Residential Club, join to talk about the state of the U.S. housing market—what makes it ugly, what makes it weird, and what would have to happen to make it better. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Mike Simonsen & Lance Lambert Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance has created a crisis for the Democratic Party and a set of interlocking debates about whether the White House—or the White House media—covered up his cognitive decline. The Atlantic’s Mark Leibovich, who first wrote that Biden should drop out of the race two years ago, joins to discuss Biden campaign strategy and the hypocrisy of many Democrats who refused to state publicly what they knew privately: that Biden's age-related blunders were getting more serious. Then we are joined by the busiest man in media, Alex Thompson, political correspondent of Axios, who has absolutely dominated this story in the past week. As a group, we talk about Biden’s age, the Democratic campaign strategy—Project "Bubble Wrap"—that is blowing up in their faces, the failures of the political press and Democratic operatives to see what’s in front of their noses, and the chances that Kamala Harris will imminently replace Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Mark Leibovich & Alex Thompson Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the first five decades of the 20th century, the number of serial killers in the U.S. remained at a very low level. But between the 1950s and 1960s, the number of serial killers tripled. Between the 1960s and 1970s, they tripled again. In the 1980s and 1990s, they kept rising. And then, just as suddenly as the serial killer emerged as an American phenomenon, he (and it really is mostly a he) nearly disappeared. What happened to the American serial killers? And what does this phenomenon say about American society, criminology, and technology? Today's guest is James Alan Fox, the Lipman Family Professor of Criminology, Law, and Public Policy at Northeastern University. The author of 18 books, he has been publishing on this subject since before 1974, the year that the FBI coined the term "serial killer." If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: James Alan Fox Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We've done several podcasts on America's declining fertility rate, and why South Korea has the lowest birthrate in the world. But we've never done an episode on the subject quite like this one. Today we go deep on the psychology of having children and not having children, and the cultural revolution behind the decline in birthrates in America and the rest of the world. The way we think about dating, marriage, kids, and family is changing radically in a very short period of time. And we are just beginning to reckon with the causes and consequences of that shift. In the new book, 'What Are Children For,' Anastasia Berg and Rachel Wiseman say a new "parenthood ambivalence" is sweeping the world. In today's show, they persuade Derek that this issue is about more than the economic trends he tends to focus on when he discusses this issue. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Anastasia Berg & Rachel Wiseman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the science of breathing—from the evolution of our sinuses and palate, to the downsides of mouth breathing and the upsides of nasal breathing, to specific breath techniques that you can use to reduce stress and fall asleep fast. Our guest is James Nestor, the author of the bestselling book 'Breath: The New Science of a Lost Art.' If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: James Nestor Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What do most people not understand about the news media? I would say two things. First: The most important bias in news media is not left or right. It’s a bias toward negativity and catastrophe. Second: That while it would be convenient to blame the news media exclusively for this bad-news bias, the truth is that the audience is just about equally to blame. The news has never had better tools for understanding exactly what gets people to click on stories. That means what people see in the news is more responsive than ever to aggregate audience behavior. If you hate the news, what you are hating is in part a collective reflection in the mirror. If you put these two facts together, you get something like this: The most important bias in the news media is the bias that news makers and news audiences share toward negativity and catastrophe. Jerusalem Demsas, a staff writer at The Atlantic and the host of the podcast Good on Paper, joins to discuss a prominent fake fact in the news — and the psychological and media forces that promote fake facts and catastrophic negativity in the press. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jerusalem Demsas Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: "The Maternal-Mortality Crisis That Didn’t Happen" by Jerusalem Demsas https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/05/no-more-women-arent-dying-in-childbirth/678486/ The 2001 paper "Bad Is Stronger Than Good" https://assets.csom.umn.edu/assets/71516.pdf Derek on the complex science of masks and mask mandates https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/03/covid-lab-leak-mask-mandates-science-media-information/673263/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Plastic is a life-saving technology. Plastic medical equipment like disposable syringes and IV bags reduce deaths in hospitals. Plastic packaging keeps food fresh longer. Plastic parts in cars make cars lighter, which could make them less deadly in accidents. My bike helmet is plastic. My smoke detector is plastic. Safety gates for babies: plastic. But in the last few months, several studies have demonstrated the astonishing ubiquity of microplastics and the potential danger they pose to our bodies—especially our endocrine and cardiovascular systems. Today’s guest is Philip Landrigan, an epidemiologist and pediatrician, and a professor in the biology department of Boston College. We start with the basics: What is plastic? How does plastic become microplastic or nanoplastic? How do these things get into our bodies? Once they’re in our bodies what do they do? How sure are we that they’re a contributor to disease? What do the latest studies tell us—and what should we ask of future research? Along the way we discuss why plastic recycling doesn’t actually work, the small steps we can take to limit our exposure, and the big steps that governments can take to limit our risk. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Philip Landrigan Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: "Plastics, Fossil Carbon, and the Heart" by Philip J. Landrigan in NEJM https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2400683 "Tiny plastic shards found in human testicles, study says" https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/health/microplastics-testicles-study-wellness/index.html Consumer Reports: "The Plastic Chemicals Hiding in Your Food" https://www.consumerreports.org/health/food-contaminants/the-plastic-chemicals-hiding-in-your-food-a7358224781/#:~:text=BEVERAGES,in%20this%20chart Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In an age of cults, sports are the last gasp of the monoculture—the last remnant of the 20th century mainstream still standing. Even so, the new NBA media rights deal is astonishing. At a time when basketball ratings are in steady decline, the NBA is on the verge of signing a $70-plus billion sports rights deal that would grow its annual media rights revenue by almost 3x. How does that make any sense? (Try asking your boss for a tripled raise when your performance declines 2 percent a year and tell us how that goes.) And what does this madness tell us about the state of sports and TV economics in the age of cults and cord-cutting? John Ourand, sports correspondent with Puck News, explains. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: John Ourand Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The news media is very good at focusing on points of disagreement in our politics. Wherever Democrats and Republicans are butting heads, that's where we reliably find news coverage. When right and left disagree about trans rights, or the immigration border bill, or abortion, or January 6, or the indictments over January 6, you can bet that news coverage will be ample. But journalists like me sometimes have a harder time seeing through the lurid partisanship to focus on where both sides agree. It's these places, these subtle areas of agreements, these points of quiet fusion, where policy is actually made, where things actually happen. I’m offering you that wind up because I think something extraordinary is happening in American economics today. Something deeper than the headlines about lingering inflation. High grocery prices. Prohibitive interest rates. Stalled out housing markets. Quietly, and sometimes not so quietly, a new consensus is building in Washington concerning technology, and trade, and growth. It has three main parts: first, there is a newly aggressive approach to subsidizing the construction of new infrastructure, clean energy, and advanced computer chips that are integral to AI and military; second, there are new tariffs, or new taxes on certain imports, especially from China to protect US companies in these industries; and third, there are restrictions on Chinese technologies in the U.S., like Huawei and TikTok. Subsidies, tariffs, and restrictions are the new rage in Washington. Today’s guest is David Leonhardt, a longtime writer, columnist, and editor at The New York Times who currently runs their morning newsletter, The Morning. he is the author of the book Ours Was the Shining Future. We talk about the history of the old economic consensus, the death of Reaganism, the demise of the free trade standard, the strengths and weaknesses of the new economic consensus, what could go right in this new paradigm, and what could go horribly wrong. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Leonhardt Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: David Leonhardt on neopopulism: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/19/briefing/centrism-washington-neopopulism.html Greg Ip on the three-legged stool of new industrial policy: https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s-finally-has-a-strategy-to-compete-with-china-will-it-work-ce4ea6cf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The game of basketball has changed dramatically in the last 40 years. In the early 1990s, Michael Jordan said that 3-point shooting was "something I don’t want to excel at," because he thought it might make him a less effective scorer. 20 years later, 3-point shots have taken over basketball. The NBA has even changed dramatically in the last decade. In the 2010s, it briefly seemed as if sharp-shooting guards would drive the center position out of existence. But the last four MVP awards have all gone to centers. In his new book, ‘Hoop Atlas,’ author Kirk Goldsberry explains how new star players have continually revolutionized the game. Goldsberry traces the evolution of basketball from the midrange mastery of peak Jordan in the 1990s, to the offensive dark ages of the early 2000s, to the rise of sprawl ball and "heliocentrism," and finally to emergence of a new apex predator in the game: the do-it-all big man. Today, we talk about the history of paradigm shifts in basketball strategy and how several key superstars in particular—Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, Manu Ginóbili, Steph Curry, and Nikola Jokic—have served as tactical entrepreneurs, introducing new plays and skills that transform the way basketball is played. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kirk Goldsberry Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today—a closer critical look at the relationship between smartphones and mental health. One of the themes we’ve touched on more than any other on this show is that American teenagers—especially girls—appear to be “engulfed” in historic rates of anxiety and sadness. The numbers are undeniable. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey, which is published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, showed that from 2011 to 2021, the share of teenage girls who say they experience “persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness” increased by 50 percent. But there is a fierce debate about why this is happening. The most popular explanation on offer today in the media says: It’s the smartphones, stupid. Teen anxiety increased during a period when smartphones and social media colonized the youth social experience. This is a story I’ve shared on this very show, including with Jonathan Haidt, the author of the new bestselling book 'The Anxious Generation_.'_ But this interpretation is not dogma in scientific circles. In fact, it’s quite hotly debated. In 2019, an Oxford University study titled "The Association Between Adolescent Well-Being and Digital Technology Use" found that the effect size of screen time on reduced mental health was roughly the same as the association with “eating potatoes.” Today, I want to give more space to the argument that it's not just the phones. Our guest is David Wallace-Wells, bestselling science writer and a columnist for The New York Times.  He says something more complicated is happening. In particular, the rise in teen distress seems concentrated in a handful of high-income and often English-speaking countries. So what is it about the interaction between smartphones, social media, and an emerging Anglophonic culture of mental health that seems to be driving this increase in teen distress? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Wallace-Wells Producer: Devon Baroldi Links My original essay on the teen anxiety phenomenon https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/04/american-teens-sadness-depression-anxiety/629524/ "Are Smartphones Driving Our Teens to Depression?" by David Wallace-Wells https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/opinion/smartphones-social-media-mental-health-teens.html 'The Anxious Generation,' by Jonathan Haidt https://www.anxiousgeneration.com/book Haidt responds to his critics https://www.afterbabel.com/p/social-media-mental-illness-epidemic Our original episode with Haidt https://www.theringer.com/2022/4/22/23036468/why-are-american-teenagers-so-sad-and-anxious Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For decades, flying cars have been a symbol of collective disappointment—of a technologically splendid future that was promised but never delivered. Whose fault is that? Gideon Lewis-Kraus, a staff writer at The New Yorker who has spent 18 months researching the history, present, and future of flying car technology, joins the show. We talk about why flying cars don't exist—and why they might be much closer to reality than most people think. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Gideon Lewis-Kraus Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Several years ago, I told some friends that I had an idea for a second book. It would be called ‘Everything Is a Cult.’ I’d noticed that in an age of declining religiosity, capitalism was filling the god-shaped hole left by the demise of organized religion with companies and services and products that were amassing a cult-like following in media, entertainment, and marketing. I never ended up writing the book. But last week, Sean Illing of ‘The Gray Area’ podcast with Vox asked me to come on his show to talk about my thinking on cults, identity, and the history of news media. Today, we're running that conversation on this feed in a rare example of me getting interviewed on my own show. Enjoy! If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Sean Illing Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, with Gaza protests spreading across the country and around the world, we dive deep into what’s actually happening on the ground in the war between Israel and Hamas—and how this war might actually end, or lead to a broader conflict. The status quo in Gaza is horrendous in every conceivable way. Following an attack that killed more than a thousand Israelis on October 7, Israel has retaliated with a bombing campaign more destructive than the most aggressive World War II fire-bombings in Germany. 80 percent of buildings in north Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. Tens of thousands of Gaza civilians have been killed, according to various estimates. Millions are displaced and hungry, and many are camped near Rafah, where Israel is considering a new military campaign to root out Hamas leaders. Today’s guest is Natan Sachs, the director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. I asked Natan to come back on the show because, while the entire media is covering the campus protests in excruciating detail, I felt like the news cycle was losing its grip on the actual war itself. Today, I asked Natan my biggest questions about the war as it stands, including whether Israel’s military strategy has already failed; whether Hamas’s top leadership actually wants the kind of ceasefire that campus protesters are calling for; and whether anything about this war would actually change if the U.S. immediately halted military aid to Israel. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Natan Sachs Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the last week, hundreds of protests across college campuses and American cities have taken place in response to the war in Gaza. Campus life has shut down at Columbia University in NYC. The news is strewn with images of police confrontations on campuses, from Texas to California. Hundreds of demonstrators across the country have been taken into police custody. And many people now anticipate that, without a major course correction in the war in Gaza, demonstrators will converge on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, in a replay of the infamous 1968 anti-war protests and police riots that defined that national convention. Next week, we’re going to have a full episode on the war itself. Today, I want to talk about the nature of protest itself. Omar Wasow, a professor of political science at UC Berkeley, is the author of an influential paper about the history of 1960s protests. Today we talk about what made the 1960s protests different, how protests succeed, how protests backfire, and how his research applies to today. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Omar Wasow Producer: Devon Baroldi LINKS: "Agenda Seeding: How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion, and Voting" [link] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is all about India.You don’t have to believe that demography is pure destiny to appreciate the fact that the future of India is the future of the world. In 2024, today, India is the largest country by population on the planet, having surpassed China two years ago. In 2050, India is still projected to be the largest country in the world. In 2100, when I am 114 years old and this podcast is hosted by my cryo-frozen vat brain, India's projected to be larger than the next two biggest countries combined: China and Nigeria. This spring, nearly one billion Indians are eligible to vote in India's election, and the big winner is almost certain—the highly popular and highly controversial Prime Minister Narendra Modi. What kind of a country is India becoming under Modi? Ravi Agrawal, the editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, joins us to discuss. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ravi Agrawal Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's show is a critical look at some of the most popular health fads of the moment, with return guests Steve Magness and Brad Stulberg, from the Growth Equation and the ‘FAREWELL’ podcast. We’re talking VO2 max, the benefits of sunlight, so-called morning and nighttime “stacks” (complex multivitamin routines for optimizing your energy and sleep), and Silicon Valley dreams of immortality. Plus, a rant from Derek about the supplement mania of independent media. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Steve Magness & Brad Stulberg Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: The ‘FAREWELL’ podcast: https://thegrowtheq.com/farewell-podcast/ The FDA's note on dietary supplement regulation: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/rumor-control/facts-about-dietary-supplements Joe Rogan's supplement stack: https://jrelibrary.com/articles/joe-rogans-supplement-stack/ Huberman's sleep stack: https://www.nsdr.co/post/andrew-hubermans-sleep-cocktail The Mayo Clinic on creatine: https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supplements-creatine/art-20347591 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard, returns to the show to discuss the biggest economic questions of the moment, including: - Why have home and auto insurance prices skyrocketed? - Why did inflation stop falling in 2024? - How did economic experts get their disinflation forecasts so wrong? - What sticky-high prices are preventing further disinflation? - Are interest rates going to be higher for years? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Furman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

"This presidential election is not very interesting, but it is important," the political commentator Josh Barro wrote in his newsletter, 'Very Serious.' Americans certainly seem to agree with the first part. Engagement with political news has been in the dumps, and many Americans seem to be tuning out the Biden-Trump II rematch. But the conundrum of this election is that it is both numbingly overfamiliar for many voters and also profoundly important for America and the world. The differences between a Biden and a Trump presidency for America’s domestic and foreign policy are huge. Too often, these differences are ignored in horse-race coverage—and, sometimes, they even go underemphasized by the campaigns and their own advocates. If you turn on a news segment or read a long article, you’ll probably hear about the dangers that Trump poses to democracy, or the rule of law, or the administrative state. All worthy concerns. But what is at stake for our most basic bread-and-butter issues: abortion, inflation, economic growth, government spending, entitlements, immigration, and foreign policy? Josh and Derek talk about the roots of voter ambivalence, what Trump's second administration could look like, and the biggest differences between a Biden and Trump White House. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Josh Barro Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jay Van Bavel is a professor of psychology and neural science at New York University. His lab has published papers on how the internet became a fun-house mirror of extreme political opinions, why the news media has a strong negativity bias, why certain emotions go viral online, why tribalism is inflamed by online activity, and how the internet can make us seem like the worst versions of ourselves. At the same time, Van Bavel emphasizes that many of the group psychology dynamics that can make social media seem like a dumpster fire are also core to what makes humankind such a special and ingenious species. We discuss the four dark laws of online engagement and the basics of group psychology. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jay Van Bavel Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The other day, I read a statistic about my hometown of Washington D.C. that knocked my socks off. In D.C. high schools, 60 percent of students were chronically absent in the last school year. That means they missed one day of school every two weeks. Among ninth graders, it’s even worse: One-third of D.C. freshmen were absent for the equivalent of six weeks of school. The New York Times reported that, nationwide, one quarter of public school students are now chronically absent. That figure has practically doubled since before the pandemic. And it’s doubled across all sorts of districts—rich and poor, liberal and conservative. Today’s guest is Nat Malkus, a former teacher who is the deputy director of education policy at the American Enterprise Institute. We talk about why school absences have exploded across the country; why some people think this just doesn’t matter; why we think it might matter quite a bit; and what teachers, parents, and lawmakers should do about it. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nat Malkus Producer: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What can the science of ancient humans and the lifestyle of hunter-gatherers teach us about how to be healthy today? Harvard evolutionary biologist Daniel Lieberman joins the show to talk about his provocative “mismatch theory,” why humans are dysevolved for the modern world, and why exercise is the ultimate miracle drug. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Daniel Lieberman Producer: Devon Renaldo Links: Exercised, by Dan Lieberman https://www.amazon.com/dp/B082H3ZH44?ref=KC_GS_GB_US The Story of the Human Body, by Dan Lieberman https://www.amazon.com/Story-Human-Body-Evolution-Disease/dp/030774180X Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, the media vibes around electric vehicles are all bad. But if you lift up and take in the big picture, electric vehicles and hybrids are taking over the market. Gas-powered cars are as much in structural decline right now as the cable bundle in TV. Today’s guest, Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of the climate media company Heatmap, says that while EV sales are much stronger than the media doom-and-gloom narratives, something else is happening that deserves our attention. America’s Big Three automakers—Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis (which owns Dodge, Chrysler, and Jeep)—are in big trouble. China’s electric vehicles are going to hit Detroit "like a wrecking ball," he says. Joe Biden wants America’s green electric future to be made in America. But right now, the future of EVs is being made in China. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at http://www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Robinson Meyer Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Derek shares his thoughts on the question of the moment in tech and tech politics. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we’re talking about movies, the philosophy of hits in Hollywood, and why we might be at a fascinating inflection point in how the entertainment industry thinks about popularity and prestige. We start by thinking about the big Oscar win for 'Oppenheimer' in the historical context. For much of the past 10 or 15 years, popularity and prestige have come apart in Hollywood. The biggest movies have almost exclusively been comic book franchises, sequels, and adaptations, while the Best Picture winners have often been small films, like 'CODA' or 'Moonlight.' But in the past 18 months, two things have changed. First, the old franchise model is showing some wear and tear, as Marvel movies consistently underperform their expectations. Second, original and often daring films—'Barbie,' 'Oppenheimer,' 'Dune: Part 2'—are dominating at the box office. Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw joins to explain how the franchise formula was born, why it's showing its age, and what might come next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One of my New Year’s resolutions for 2024 was to do more episodes with people who think I'm wrong about something. For example, I've done several episodes about how the U.S. economy is doing much better than most Americans think. Today’s guest says my analysis (and that of many economists and economic commentators) is missing something big. Official inflation measures do a poor job of capturing the effect of higher interest rates. When a home goes from $200k to $220k, that’s a 10 percent increase in the value of the home. But, with higher rates, the monthly cost of living in that house with a mortgage might go up 300 percent. The same is true for financing a new car with higher interest rates. Or paying credit card debt. Judd Cramer, an economist who teaches at Harvard University, is the coauthor of a new paper on how our inflation data doesn't properly account for skyrocketing interest rates—and why the so-called "vibecession" isn’t as much of a mystery as we think. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Judd Cramer Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about one of the most interesting pieces of research I’ve read in the past year. It's an idea called "need for chaos," and the truth is that I literally cannot stop thinking about it as I follow American culture, politics, and media. Very briefly, it is the observation that many Americans today embrace conspiracy theories and nihilistic burn-it-all-down messages, not because they are partisans of the left or right, but rather because they've become hopelessly cynical (sometimes for very good reason!) about all elite and all major institutions of power. Today’s guest is the Danish political scientist Michael Bang Petersen, who coauthored the paper that introduced this idea. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Michael Bang Petersen Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: https://politicalsciencenow.com/the-need-for-chaos-and-motivations-to-share-hostile-political-rumors/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/need-for-chaos-political-science-concept/677536/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the extraordinary decline in face-to-face socializing in America—and the real stakes of the country’s hanging-out crisis. From 2003 to 2022, American adults reduced their average hours of face-to-face socializing by about 30 percent. For unmarried Americans, the decline was even bigger—more than 35 percent. For teenagers, it was more than 45 percent. Eric Klinenberg is a sociologist and the director of the Institute for Public Knowledge at New York University. He is the author of several books on the rise of living alone and the decline of social infrastructure. His latest is _'_2020: One City, Seven People, and the Year Everything Changed.' And he's not afraid to challenge the popular notion of an epidemic of loneliness in America. “There is no good evidence that Americans are lonelier than ever," he has written. Today, Eric and I talk about teens and parenting, the decline of hanging out, why America sucks at building social infrastructure, and why aloneness isn’t always loneliness. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Eric Klinenberg Producer: Devon Baroldi Why Americans Suddenly Stopped Hanging Out: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/america-decline-hanging-out/677451/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about arguably the most important economic statistic out there: real (or inflation-adjusted) wage growth. For much of the last few years, many people's real wages have declined. But for the last few quarters, real wages have been growing. In fact, they've grown so much for the poorest workers that several key measures of inequality are falling, and the Black-white wage gap is shrinking. But many Americans still don't seem to buy the idea that things are getting better. Today's guest is Dr. Arindrajit Dube, a professor of economics at University of Massachusetts Amherst—one of the world’s top researchers on minimum wage policies and pay. He says things are happening in this economy that we haven't seen since the 1950s or 1960s. "We're seeing a fundamental reorganization of work in America," Dube said. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Dr. Arindrajit Dube Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Life is a series of conversations. Our relationships, friendships, marriages, breakups, makeups, hirings, promotions, and firings are mostly the story of two people talking. And many of these conversations are hard or uncomfortable. Sometimes we spend years refusing to be honest with the people we know the best because we’re afraid of telling them how we feel. What if we all had such confidence in our own powers of communication and understanding that we didn’t fear these hard conversations at all? What if we welcomed them? Charles Duhigg, the author of 'The Power of Habit,' has a new book out this week. It’s called 'Supercommunicators.' Duhigg’s book is about how to talk when talking is hard. Today we talk about the art and science of difficult conversations, from romantic relationships to political persuasion, and what he discovered to be the most important principles of having a great and emotionally resonant discussion. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Charles Duhigg Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the science of slowing down the aging process … and why one biotech company has found some success with dogs. Last November, the New York Times reported that a company called Loyal had reached a milestone in the development of safe life extension drugs for our pets. This drug, which is called LOY-1, works to slow the aging process in large breeds. But Loyal's work holds major promise for helping all dogs live longer. It could even crack open some of the mysteries of mammalian aging, which could lead to discoveries that extend the lives of humans. Today's guest is the CEO and founder of Loyal, Celine Halioua. We talk about her experience as a female biotech founder, the weird economics of pharma, the ethics of life extension, the science of why big dogs die young, her theories for how to slow down the aging process in dogs big and small, and the possibility spillover benefits for humans who would like a few more years with their family and friends. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Celine Halioua Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We’ve done several shows on America’s anxiety crisis. This one asks several questions that might get me in trouble. Have we overcorrected from an era when mental health was shameful to talk about to an era where people talk about anxiety so much online that it’s worsening our mental health crisis? Is the very design of algorithmic media engineered to increase rumination and mental distress? Is there a dark side to all this media about trauma, anxiety, and depression? (Yes, the irony of us asking this question is not lost on us.) Today’s guest is Darby Saxbe, a clinical psychologist and professor at the University of Southern California. We talk about anxiety as identity, why talking about anxiety on the Internet is such a mess today, how the architecture of the internet unhelpfully shapes our discussions of mental health, and what a better conversation about mental health online might look like. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Darby Saxbe Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You could make the argument that last year was the worst year in human history for climate change. The Earth experienced its hottest day on record over and over and over again. Air surface temperature anomalies set a record in September. Ocean heat set a record too. The number of wildfires in Canada? Another record high. But you don’t have to squint too hard to see the good news. U.S. and European carbon emissions have actually declined this century. The rate of global deforestation is going down. And investment in clean energy technology—particularly solar and batteries—is smashing records and changing the world. Those glimmers of hope come from an epic annual report from Nat Bullard, an independent, Singapore-based climate researcher who spent several years at Bloomberg. In today’s episode, Nat and I discuss the twin pillars of the global clean energy revolution (solar and storage), how these two technologies have consistently beat expert predictions, how they’re reshaping energy generation around the world, and what stands in the way of a clean energy future based around sunshine and batteries. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nathaniel Bullard Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: Nat's presentation on the clean energy revolution: https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Something mysterious is happening in the politics of young men and women. Gen Z women—those in their 20s and younger—have become sharply more liberal in the past few years, while young men are shifting subtly to the right. This gender schism isn't just happening in the U.S. It's happening in Europe, northern Africa, and eastern Asia. Why? And what are the implications of sharply diverging politics between men and women in our lifetime? Alice Evans, a visiting fellow at Stanford University and a researcher of gender, equality, and inequality around the world, joins the show to discuss. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Alice Evans Producer: Devon Baroldi Links: https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998 https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-gender-gap-young-men-women-dont-agree-politics-2024-1 https://www.ggd.world/p/what-prevents-and-what-drives-gendered Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If you love food and also consider yourself a good person, you probably care about where your food comes from, how it’s grown, and whether it's part of a system that is destroying the planet. After all, if you study just about any problem related to the environment, sooner or later your study will make solid contact with our food systems. Our food is responsible for 25 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. But not everybody who claims to care about the environment knows what they’re talking about. Eating local? Eating organic? Counterintuitively, these behaviors aren't as ecologically beneficial as many people claim. These facts and more come from Hannah Ritchie, a data scientist, the deputy editor of Our World in Data, and the author of a new book 'Not the End of the World.' As Ritchie argues at length in her book, a lot of liberals assume that anything that sounds like pastoralism and natural living is better for the planet. But in fact, it is technological progress that allows for highly efficient farming, high-quality foods with less land consumed by agriculture, less water wasted, and more forests spared. Many times, our pastoralist instincts to appear virtuous when it comes to food and the planet don’t actually achieve virtuous outcomes. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Hannah Ritchie Producer: Devon Baroldi Links mentioned: "Environmental Impacts of Food Production," Our World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's just a steel tumbler with a straw and side handle. But the Stanley cup is a social media phenomenon and an incredible business success story. How did this thing come out of nowhere? What lessons can we learn about its success? And, more broadly, what do cultural phenomena like this say about marketing trends, social media tastes, and the role of randomness in our life and economy? Joining the show are Amanda Mull, staff writer at The Atlantic, and Brian Klaas, author of the new book ‘Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters.’ If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Amanda Mull & Brian Klaas Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sports Illustrated layoffs. The demise of independent Pitchfork. Hundreds of millions of dollars in losses at major newspapers like the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times. The state of the U.S. news industry is dire. How did we get here? Who knows the way out? The Ringer's Bryan Curtis joins the show, with contributions from an interview with NPR's David Folkenflik. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Bryan Curtis & David Folkenflik Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today is the third and final episode in our miniseries on this unique moment in global war and conflict. In the first episode, we looked at the turmoil in the Middle East. In the second episode, we offered explanations for the historic rise in global conflict between states and within states, from Eastern Europe to Central America. Now, we come home to the U.S. By just about any measure, the U.S. southern border is facing a historic crisis. Last year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported 2.5 million encounters at the border—an annual record. In December alone, border officials processed some 300,000 migrants—a monthly record. This surge has created chaos in parts of southern Texas and Arizona. It has also created a humanitarian crisis and a political headache for liberal governors and mayors in Chicago, Denver, and New York, where shelters are bulging with migrants and tents are strewn across the streets. Meanwhile, in Washington, lawmakers are haggling over a bill to secure the border but making little progress. Today’s guest is Dara Lind, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council who has been covering immigration policy for many years. We talk about why the border crisis is happening, who or what is to blame for it, what is to be done, and why immigration is such an impossible issue for American politics to solve. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Dara Lind Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is the second episode in "World on Fire," a series on the historic levels of global violence and conflict in the Middle East, the Americas, and beyond. Listen to Part 1 here: "World on Fire, Part 1: The Houthis, Israel's Impossible War, and Worsening Middle East Chaos." You and I are living through an extraordinary period of global conflict. In Europe, Russia, and Ukraine are engaged in one of the continent's deadliest hot wars since 1945. In Africa, the last few years have seen devastating wars in Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Sudan. In the Middle East, of course, there is Israel's record-breaking bombing of Gaza and the unfolding crisis in Yemen. In Central Asia, Azerbaijan launched a brutal attack against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. In Central and South America, cartel and gang violence has surged. The Jalisco Cartel New Generation and its affiliates in Mexico and Columbia, were responsible for more than 11,000 deaths in 2022. Last week, the state of Ecuador arrested 900 people in a security operation to stop gang violence, following the prison escape of one of the country's most powerful drug lords. According to researchers at Uppsala University, this might be the most violent period of the 21st century, with more total conflicts than any year since World War II. Why is it all happening at once? Paul Poast is a political scientist who studies international relations and conflict history at the University of Chicago. In an essay for The Atlantic, he said we are in the midst of “not a world war, but a world at war.” And in this interview, we consider five theories for why global conflict seems to be surging around the world. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Poast Producer: Devon Baroldi Mentioned in this episode: The Uppsala Conflict Data Program [link] "Not a World War But a World at War," by Paul Poast [link] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The chaos in the Middle East is getting worse. It’s not just in Gaza. It’s not the spasms of violence in the West Bank. It’s not just the northern border with Lebanon, where Israel is braced for the possibility of a new war. It’s not the Houthis in Yemen, disrupting Red Sea trade. It's not just Iran urging on these groups. It's all of it, all at once. Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, joins to break this all down and offer several big-picture explanations for why so many long-standing problems in the Middle East are getting worse at the same time. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Natan Sachs Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The 'New York Times' bestselling author and contrarian self-help writer Oliver Burkeman joins the show to talk about his new audio essay series on work, focus, and interruptions—and how, too often, our emphasis on eliminating distractions ironically takes us away from the most important things in life. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Oliver Burkeman Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Derek shares what he considers the most important narratives of the moment, including the return of normalcy in economics, a big shift in sports media, Big Tech's 1890 moment, and ... aliens. Host: Derek Thompson Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If you're looking for a hopeful and mind-expanding conversation to round out the year, this one is for you. It's our breakthroughs of the year episode, covering 2023's biggest achievements in science and tech, including space technology, life extension, fusion, gene editing, vaccines, and, of course, GLP-1s. It has become a 'Plain English' tradition—after weeks of stories that often take us into sad areas, like anxiety, depression, and war—to close the year with a nerdy conversation about the most important developments at the frontier of science and technology. Today's frontier guide is Dr. Eric Topol. He is the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute and a bestselling author on the future of medicine. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Eric Topol Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One week ago, Matthew Perry’s autopsy report came back, finding that the ‘Friends’ actor died from the acute effects of ketamine overdose. His death has sharpened focus on the popular and controversial drug. Ketamine has been hailed as a miracle cure for depression and anxiety, criticized as a VC-fueled fad, and investigated as a placebo. But what is ketamine, what is its history, what do we know about how and why it works, and how could it help hundreds of millions of people with depression and anxiety? Today’s guest is Boris Heifets. He is an assistant professor of anesthesiology at Stanford University and the author of a much talked about and utterly fascinating study on ketamine that came up with a brilliant way to test the effects of ketamine. The study's surprising results raise big questions about not only ketamine, but the curative power of belief. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Boris Heifets Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about 2023 in media—from TV to film, from the miracle of Barbenheimer’s to the superhero drought, from Netflix’s show of strength to Taylor Swift’s invincibility, from the podcast purge to so much more. Our guest is Matt Belloni, the host of Ringer podcast ‘The Town’ and a writer with Puck. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Matthew Belloni Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is our second in a series on the weight-loss drug revolution of the last two years. On Tuesday, we talked to endocrinologist Beverly Tchang about the science of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists—also known as GLP1s, also known as Ozempic, Wegovy, Moujargo, and Zepbound. If you haven’t listened to that show, I think you’ll feel safe and entertained within the bounds of this episode. But if you want to know more about how these drugs work, their effect on insulin and glucose and the brain’s reward center, or the questions they raise about obesity and the nature of willpower and free will, I’d encourage you to queue up that show.  Today, in Part 2, we have two guests: Zach Reitano is the CEO and cofounder of the telehealth platform Ro. He is here for a couple reasons. He has a bird’s-eye view of the GLP1 marketplace, the rise in demand, the supply chain, the economics of pricing and insurance. He’s also written several revelatory essays, pulling in research from think tanks, medical experts, and investment banks, that have helped shape my understanding of these drugs and the effect they could have on the population and the economy. Our second guest is Dr. Robert Lustig, an endocrinologist who spent years as a pediatrician and researcher at the University of California-San Francisco. As you’ll hear, he is much less optimistic about the ability of these drugs to revolutionize obesity medication in America. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Zach Reitano & Robert Lustig Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s podcast is about the weight-loss drug revolution—which I believe might be one of the most important stories in the world right now. Despite all the attention weight-loss drugs are receiving, it’s possible that they might soon affect the world even more than we realize as they teach us about the science of human metabolism, decision-making, and even free will. Beverly Tchang, an endocrinologist at Weill Cornell, explains how these drugs work, what they mean for people with diabetes and obesity, and how to wrap our minds around their stranger and spookier side effects. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Beverly Tchang Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we’re examining the U.S. housing market, starting with a specific question: Should you look to rent or buy your next home? By some metrics, this is the worst time to buy a house in 40 years. Housing prices are near record highs, especially compared to local rents. For many young people, the dream of homeownership might seem completely impossible right now, thanks to huge national demand colliding with short supply, especially in high-income areas. Meanwhile, high mortgage interest rates have failed to reduce home prices, as owners are rate locked into their old mortgages. When will this sorry state of affairs turn around? Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics and host of the Inside Economics podcast, joins the show to answer our questions. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Mark Zandi Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the controversial life and legacy of Henry Kissinger, who died last week at the age of 100. First as Nixon’s National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, and then as an author and diplomacy whisperer in almost every subsequent administration, Kissinger's life is overstuffed with achievements and disasters and breakthroughs and catastrophes—many of which continue to shape the world we live in. Today’s guest is George Packer, an Atlantic staff writer and the author of several books, including ‘Our Man,’ a biography of Richard Holbrooke: another towering American diplomat who was Kissinger’s rival and partner in diplomacy. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: George Packer Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is a wide-ranging one, from breaking news in tech to the philosophy of social media. The Atlantic's Charlie Warzel joins to discuss Elon Musk's bizarre and crude comments at The New York Times DealBook Summit, the corporate meltdown of X, whether its demise would make the world better off, the fragmentation of the social media landscape, and its implications for audiences and news-makers everywhere. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Charlie Warzel Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This month, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China (PRC) met in San Francisco amid trade wars and even the prospect of a catastrophic hot war over Taiwan. Their meeting took place during a nervous period in the history of China. After decades of spectacular growth, the Chinese economic miracle has sputtered, with huge implications for its own population and the world. And yet, even as the most dire aspects of the Chinese economy make headlines, it remains the case that China is the foundry of the green energy revolution, making more solar panels and wind turbines and electric vehicles than any other country. To help us understand how China thinks about economics, technology, and America, we welcome back to the show writer Dan Wang. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Dan Wang Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about whatever the hell just happened—is still happening—at OpenAI, where CEO Sam Altman has been fired, almost rehired, and then shipped off to Microsoft, while the most famous startup in artificial intelligence self-immolates for reasons that the company refuses to explain. Our panel has some theories. Charlie Warzel is a staff writer at The Atlantic who has been texting and talking with OpenAI employees for the last few days. Karen Hao is a contributing writer at The Atlantic who is writing a book about OpenAI and knows many of the main characters from this past weekend. Ross Andersen is a staff writer at The Atlantic who wrote a big magazine feature on Sam Altman, OpenAI, and the messy quest to build artificial general intelligence. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Ross Andersen, Karen Hao & Charlie Warzel  Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the question of the moment in politics: the meaning of Joe Biden’s terrible polling numbers. Today’s guest is Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times, where he does public opinion, polling, demographics, and politics. We talk about the notorious New York Times poll that showed Donald Trump trouncing Biden in the swing states. We talk about why it’s not crazy to take presidential polls seriously right now—even though we're 300 days out from the election. We talk about the multi-layered problems of Biden’s age. And we talk about why the new "engagement gap" might be the most important, under-discussed phenomenon in American politics today. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nate Cohn Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about thinking practically about the AI revolution. Yes, it may one day usher in some now unthinkable utopia or dystopia. But in the meantime, our imperfect world exists, and your imperfect job exists, and you face a forced choice: Should you use this technology? And if so, how do you make it work for you? Kevin Roose, a tech columnist for The New York Times and the host of the podcast 'Hard Fork,' talks about how generative AI tools are already changing his job and others, including in medicine, consulting, and software development. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Kevin Roose Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Morgan Housel, the author of 'The Psychology of Money' and a partner at Collab Fund, talks about his new book, 'Same as Ever,' on the virtues of ancient truths in a world where everything seems to be changing. We also talk about why so many successful people are miserable, why great ideas don't scale, the difference between happiness and contentment, the wisdom of a Snickers bar, the downsides of fully optimized culture, and how to write. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Morgan Housel Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In the last few weeks, our coverage of this conflict has tried very hard to see the problem from as many angles as possible. In our first episode, we considered the political motivations of Hamas’s October 7 attack. In our second episode, we considered the behavior of Israel’s government from a critical perspective. In a third episode, we asked whether Israel’s military objectives made sense by speaking to a counter-terrorism expert. And last week, we told the 150-year history of Israel, Palestine, and the origins of Hamas by speaking to two historians, one who was clearly more sympathetic to Israel and another who was clearly more sympathetic to Palestine. There is a voice we haven’t heard from in this series: a Palestinian voice. Today’s interview is with Sally Abed, a Palestinian-Israeli, who is an activist with the group Standing Together. We talk about the "psychosis" and "impossibility" of being Palestinian in Israel, what happens after a ceasefire, and how to build a coalition for peace. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Sally Abed Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

One year ago, it was a matter of conventional wisdom among experts that the U.S. was on the brink of a recession. They were wrong. The latest GDP report showed America’s real output growing at a 4.9 percent annualized rate. That's huge. But just as we zagged a year ago, when we criticized recession predictions, I want to zag again today. It is a matter of broad conventional wisdom that the U.S. economy right now is doing really well. And, for now, it is. But challenges abound, including "higher-for-longer" interest rates, a recession in the apartment construction market, and ongoing global mayhem. Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen counts the five biggest risks to economic growth in the next year—and makes his official economic prediction for 2024. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Conor Sen Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The eminent Israeli historian Benny Morris walks us through the origins of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, from antiquity to October 7. And the excellent historian of Palestine, Zachary Foster, digs into the often misunderstood history of the rise of Hamas. Finally, both share their thoughts on Israel's military response, the future of the conflict, and the "missing moderate middle" on both sides. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Benny Morris & Zachary Foster Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we’re taking a break from war to talk about the science of human potential and a new book on that subject from the psychologist and bestselling author Adam Grant. In 'Hidden Potential,' Grant shares stories and studies across sports, religious history, coaching, and economics to explain why we're bad at cultivating our own potential and identifying ability in others. We talk about education and affirmative action, scouting quarterbacks, coaching Steph Curry, and, for reasons that will soon become apparent, the spread of Protestantism. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Adam Grant Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Two things seem true: First, Israel has a profound moral right to defend itself from terrorism. Second, its current strategy could kill thousands of civilians, destroy its international reputation, breed even more terrorist cells, and obliterate any chance for peace in our lifetime. Is it possible to keep both ideas in our head? Today's guest is Georgetown University professor Daniel Byman, one of the world's leading researchers on terrorism, counterterrorism, and Israel’s military. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Daniel Byman Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is our second episode on the war between Israel and Hamas. Today’s guest is Peter Beinart. Peter Beinart is a professor at CUNY of journalism and political science, the editor at large of Jewish Currents, and the author of The Beinart Notebook newsletter. I don’t know another Jewish author who writes and speaks with as much eloquent anguish over this issue. Israel is an idea and a country so worth defending, and also the way Israel defends itself is so often inexcusable. It is almost impossible to keep both ideas in one’s head. We’re going to try. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Peter Beinart Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The former golden boy of crypto is on trial for one of the most lurid corporate fraud scandals of the century. What's happening at the trial? What are the most compelling pieces of evidence against him? Does he have any chance of winning? Zeke Faux, the author of the new book 'Number Go Up,' takes us inside the courtroom where SBF is facing charges that could put him away for decades. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Zeke Faux Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What motivated the Hamas terrorist attack? How did Israel fail to stop it? What role is Iran playing in this conflict? What should Americans know about the state of Israel's chaotic internal politics? And what comes next? Today's show has two guests. Dan Raviv is the author of several bestselling books on Israel, Israeli-American relations, and Israeli intelligence. He was a CBS News national and international correspondent for over 40 years. He’s here to provide context on Hamas and Israeli politics. To help us understand some of the regional political dynamics, we have Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, who has been an adviser for several accords and peace talks in the Middle East in the past decade. He is also the president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Dan Raviv & Jeffrey Sonnenfeld  Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hollywood has been decimated by the rise of streaming. At Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount, and Sony, profits on TV, film, and streaming went from $23 billion in 2013 to about zero in 2023. Nothing tells this story more clearly than a brief history of Disney. In the early 2000s, Disney under CEO Bob Iger went on one of the most extraordinary runs in modern business history. ESPN was the most valuable network in the cable bundle. They acquired Pixar, Marvel, LucasFilms, and Fox. As the company shifted to streaming, it seemed set up to lap Netflix and eat the box office at the same time. But today, Disney’s stock is at a nine-year low. Operating margins are down 75 percent. Disney+ lost $4 billion last year. What happened to America’s greatest entertainment company? To discuss, we have two great guests: Julia Alexander, director of strategy for Parrot Analytics and a writer with Puck News, and Matthew Ball, a writer and investor and author of the book ‘The Metaverse.’ If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Matthew Ball & Julia Alexander Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Twenty years ago, higher education was one of the most trusted institutions in America. Today, confidence in higher ed is falling among every demographic: young and old, men and women, Republicans and Democrats, those who didn't finish high school and those with framed PhDs on their wall. And it’s not just attitudes. In the fall of 2010, there were more than 18 million undergraduates enrolled in colleges and universities across the U.S. Last year, there were about 15 million undergrads. That’s a decline of roughly 16 percent. In a recent essay for the New York Times, author Paul Tough, who’s published several excellent books about college in America, wrote: “Americans have turned away from college at the same time that students in the rest of the world have been flocking to campus. Why?” Today’s guest is Paul Tough. We talk about why a noxious stew of economics, culture, and inequality has turned a surprising number of Americans against college. Who’s to blame, and what happens next? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected].  Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Tough Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Since the 1970s, the General Social Survey has asked thousands of Americans the same question: “Taken all together, how would you say things are these days—would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?” In the past few decades, our well-being seemed to take a nosedive. According to researchers, the decline of marriage seems to be the single most important explanation. Why is marriage the best predictor of happiness in America? Does marriage turn unhappy people into happy people? Are happier people just more likely to get married? Or is something more complicated happening? We welcome back Robert Waldinger and Marc Schulz, the director and associate director of Harvard Study of Adult Development, the longest-running study of adult happiness ever conducted and the authors of the book 'The Good Life,' to discuss. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Robert Waldinger and Marc Schulz Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices